Matthew.
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Posts posted by Matthew.
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All up in the air still but at least we haven't got the same heights further north on GFS and ECM. Hopefully soon we'll have baroclinic gradients pushed right into the arctic so Lows go that way.
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2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:
Low 15s by the 24th seems likely, it really then does depend on the last week, which is Fantasy Island territory for the models.
I have 15.5 to the coolest point to the 19th. (15.9times14 +14.5+16+14.5+13.5+13.5divided by 19) The only way from here is gradually up.
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2 hours ago, markyo said:
At least the wildlife loves this humidity,real joy to get home to the armada of slugs advancing up my drive,what a treat to behold.
This month is starting to remind me of November. Started beautiful then went very mild and muggy. What if July follows on like December -
The ECM is once again quite a joy this morning even from Tuesday! Will be interesting to see if it holds. My blood pressure on the rise once more
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Yes GFS 0z not bad at all. That Azores high seems to be tantalisingly close to the Sw as time goes on next week. It just needs a nudge Ne. Mostly looking reasonable next week imo
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1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:
Are you taking into account the downward corrections?
At the mo i only figure -0.1. The last week will reveal this months fate imo.
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2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:
There is always a chance MW, but unlikely imo.
My calculations give me 15.4 to the 23rd and i cannot see imo any less than this in the last week. 2010 had 15.2 and is currently the warmest between 07-15
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Great charts SS. Makes it easy for the eye
There is a chance that this will be the warmest June since 2006 for the CET if that High sits in the right place.
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Well by the looks of things from Monday temps certainly on the rise for central/southern areas in particular as a warm draw of Sw looks likely. Slightly above average temps look the name of the game so this month is going to come out a warm one
Could be dry one too if the model outputs hold with the Nw getting the brunt.
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A benign week next week maybe. Low pressure to the Nw so a little rain for many but better than this week. A bit of sun a lot of cloudy weather I'm guessing. The jet seems to have no energy at the mo bringing slack conditions and if HP doesn't build north enough it's very much a typical British summer 2 weeks.
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On the GFS 0z the deep Low over Iceland can't make it all the way to the Uk so at least things don't look wet and windy.
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1 minute ago, knocker said:
ECM brings low pressure in from the west on day 10 with fronts traversing Cornwall
Sidney wont like that!
At least its Day 10. Do you think this is possible from the ECM Knocker?
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Yes SS once again a peach from the ECM
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8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
I suspect the GFS and Euro are right but in the interest of balance they may be thinking something like the GEM..
Yes it seems that way. Just watched the BBC update and the main principle was 'we think'
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I better ring the BBC up and tell them to get that 21:55 update changed
Wonderful charts tonight!
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Yes as above the 12z is an absoulute peach! What will the ECM say though?
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Another dry/warm spell could be on the way from Saturday+. ECM has the Azores high moving north to encompass more of the Uk
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The ECM is quite a joy this morning with the Azores having more influence on D10+ and the Low moving away Ne from Iceland
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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:
Checked a number of sites its failed by the looks of it hopefully the ens will update around 21:30
Its on a knife-edge. Will the High move north like the 0z
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The ECM 12z starting to look like it has the right idea with High Pressure to the south and Low pressure to the north. The Low heading for Iceland on D9
Temps don't look bad at all with Sw flow although I'm not sure if sea temps are above average in this area.
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7 minutes ago, knocker said:
Looking at the ecm anomaly for day ten sees the Azores HP becoming influential. The EPS for the next five days out to the 26th sees this influence spread north to encompass the whole of the UK
I wonder if this is the first trill of the ride of the Azores coming into play
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My oh my! The CET for June is at 15.9 for the first third! This is way above average. If we end up with High Pressure pushing up from the south for the last third this month could be the warmest for many years. All up in the air at the moment though
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24 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:
Does this imply an increasing likelihood of unsettled weather /troughing/mobile w'ly as the main summer pattern is set, meaning a decent August is once again unlikely?
Possibly but as noted there are so many other components at play aswell. It might give 10% more chance of a poorer August. For now the Models do hint at a wave of better weather for next weekend as the Low pulls east. Hopefully its a case of the 'broken clock' scenario and that soon the long forecast presence of the Azores High will push further Nw
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It's nice to see a few more Low pressure markings over Greenland from the ECM on day 10. The High pressure to the south is an interesting development. I wonder how far north this will push although the Zonal Westerly component looks a strong challenge to overcome.
This month is starting to remind me of November. Started beautiful then went very mild and muggy. What if July follows on like December
Summer 2016
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
There is a chance after looking at the temps for the rest of the month that this could be the warmest CET since 1976. There is a reasonable shot at beating the other 2:
2003: 16.1
2006: 15.9
1976:17.0
Note all these summers were very warm/hot. Far too early to write off this summer. Maybe this weekend onwards July/August the sun will gradually return to all parts