Matthew.
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Posts posted by Matthew.
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51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
GEM shows a rise in pressure at the end of next week if this were to happen parts of mainland Europe would see further heavy rain and potentially flooding with the ground so saturated in many areas
Incredible charts SS! If only
Pressure of that Azores high is massive! We keep hoping for the last third though. P.s- if anyone has any links to how 1976, 95 summer set up regarding Tamara's post on Angular momentum etc i would gladly like to read. Thanks.
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17 minutes ago, markyo said:
Fact having to work in humid(yes this is humid
Yes i know what you mean today is certainly humid and yet others days have that feeling and yet its only 45% or so humidity. I remember the Spanish plume last year it felt humid and i measured it and it was only 35%or so. I wonder if lower pressure in the atmosphere has this humidity affect? I need an expert to answer this as im intrigued
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16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
A few days ago I was thinking the June CET might end up low 14s but looking at forecast temps for the Midlands next week, they aren't as bad as some models might look at a first glance. CET unlikely to be below 15C by 20th in my opinion - so any punts between 14.5C and even 16C could consider themselves to have a chance at this stage - all IMO of course!!
Yes i agree. I estimate 15.2 to the 20th. If the last third was average it would take it up to 15.3.
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23 hours ago, Frosty. said:
.. the models are agreed on a trough dominated unsettled showery mid June period but I still think the Azores high will build in towards end of June and last well into July
Yes as Singularity's post states we might start to see a meridianal pattern soon hopefully
Zonal for now though.
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1 minute ago, knocker said:
Matthew the jet doesn't dictate the pressure distribution, rather the other way around.
Thankyou for your help. I have much to learn. I'll read up on that
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13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Its much better than gfs but the Atlantic looks incredibly strong - really would like to see a bit of a slow down in that regard!
Yes a slowdown in the Jet certainly needs to happen if that Azores High is going to envelop the Uk. As Knocker said the 18th may turn out reasonable but for how long? It does'nt look sustainable at the moment as he said 'a brief ridge'
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The ECM 12z looks more encouraging longer term which pressure less high over Greenland on Day 10. Hopefully it will continue in this vein and not follow the GFS trend
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I like your thoughts Frosty and evidence by charts and positivity
but doesn't Singularity's post worry you with Low pressure swinging from the Nw? I'm still remaining positive but how will the dice fall?
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With High Pressure slap bang overhead it's giving breathtaking conditions. 23c in some parts of Wales already!
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Thanks for the latest charts Knocker. Certainly turning unsettled as indicated by GFS. Looking to the latter chart with a more possible influence from the Azores High this reminds of September 2015 where it turned unsettled mid month only to leave a glorious final week. As Tamara said 'the dice has to fall right'
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Wrong thread
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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
TBH, and from a somewhat IMBY perspective, the entire run looks pretty tasty to me: though noticeably cooler than of late, next week offers a good chance of some thunderstorms/thundery showers again; and once the remnants of TS Colin (Colin??) have done their worst and died a death, a possible return to something more settled?
Yes i agree and temperature wise the CET is already much higher than expected. I slight fall next week shown by GFS but things may turn out average so this may turn into a very warm June.
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Great charts to end the run Frosty. It will be interesting to see future developments. The latter charts look hosepipe ban material. Having seen that for a while. The ground is getting dry!
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The first third of June looks like coming out quite a bit above average temperature wise looking at the CET and drier also. A welcome start to Summer!
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5 minutes ago, markyo said:
We will see and then i will be shot down in flames for my opinion!
The West in particular has already seen a remarkable 1st week of Summer- probably one of the best in many years for early June. The second is unsettled but still could be reasonable. A long Summer ahead and we've already had a good week!
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I hope Colin is the last storm we see for a while. He's really stepped up the Jet! Midweek looks like the Low is over Scotland. We can hope it moves further Nw of course but the Models seem together on this one. Time will tell how much rain we get but I remember past Low pressures and not all are as bad as it looks.
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Hull and Santon Downham in Suffolk were the hotspots today with 26.3c.
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9 minutes ago, William of Walworth said:
Well this summer-lover is severely depressed just now. Because of the sodding timing of the current spell and it's imminent finish.
I'm not even that interested in hot/sunny weather just now (much though I enjoy it).
All I care about are the prospects for the weekend of Saturday 18th June onwards -- ie Glastonbury week. We're crew, and will be on site for ten days
Yet in the latest chat/models on the Model Output Discussion thread thread -- including those posted by Frosty --, all I see is extreme deep-low domination for the whole of the foreseeable, from this weekend onwards. What happened to prospects of a a nice late-June spell, that were still being mentioned as recently as yesterday?
Any hopes? Or am I over-reacting/being over-paranoid?
The only hope is that the rain might be showery in nature and temps high-teens. Drier from the last third..but speculative.
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The date record could be a close one on the 8th. The min looks very high on the bbc for the area.
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24c sounds ideal to me. A nice dry heat 35% humidity. 10c at night to make things comfortable. Clear blue skies all Summer long
I do like to see extremes elsewhere though. I wonder if 40c will be reached this Summer? Maybe a few decades time.
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The GEM 0z you can really see the secondary Low gaining momentum and powering towards the Uk with the original Low developing it seems on Thursday in the Atlantic.
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I'm getting the impression these classifications: Warm 18-23c, Very Warm 24-27c, hot 28c+. So many places at 27+ today.
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Porthmadog at 26c 2pm
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Just looked at temps from the bbc models and they are indicating not cool but average for central and southern areas during this unsettled snap. As has been brought out settled weather could return fairly quickly by GFS and ECM earlier.
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Pressure of that Azores high is massive! We keep hoping for the last third though. P.s- if anyone has any links to how 1976, 95 summer set up regarding Tamara's post on Angular momentum etc i would gladly like to read. Thanks.
Zonal for now though.
Summer 2016
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
28c(27.8) looks like the highest temp of the week from Wales. We now are entering an unsettled period with lower temps but still will be reasonable but cloudier and generally more humid with light winds but won't feel as oppressive with lower temps.