Anti-Mild

Apart from a few flakes there's not been a sausage here today. It's coming over the moors between here and Whitby so the precip is all gone by the time it gets here. I do have high hopes for this evening though!

OK, so I'm as good at blogging as keeping a diary! First blog in, what, 6 years!! I had become an infrequent poster on the forum over the last 3 or 4 years (work and other things) but this winter has really captured my imagination again. Given how things are shaping up we [i]could [/i]be in for a cold spell to surpass whatever has been thrown at us over the last 3 years! With all the fun of the ice days and snow it is often easy to lose sight of the potential impact on the wildlife. Birds always suffer in cold weather so make sure you put out fruit and nuts and some fresh unfrozen water. Similarly, if like me you have a cat who spends most of their time outdoors make sure they can get to a place that is sheltered.

The GFS 12z has reverted to...........you guessed it - rampant zonality!! About as predictable as FI is unpredictable! I would say that FI is no further than +72 just now, so ignore all runs after this point, load up the radar, and get watching the lamp-posts!

Is there anybody there? UKMO out to +72 and it's looking peachy. Lots of snow - looks like we may almost have an all-white satellite image again! GFS out to +78 and it's basically identical to the 6z.

That UKMO is amazing for the weekend, although it's almost getting beyond the "fun" stage and into "serious" territory. From a personal perspective, I'm supposed to be taking a trip to Cardiff from the NE on Friday lunchtime but I anticipate a cancellation!! Edit: Just seen the +120.......

Just starting to get a few flakes now. Had an absolute belter of a snowfall between 0815 and 0850 this morning, about 2 inches fell! Although the traffic on Marton Road was horrendous until about 1000. Good thing i'm on holiday this week!! I was disappointed by yesterday but the frontal snow went through quicker than expected.

The fact that the cold is a little further east on this run is of little concern. What may cause a few flutters is lower heights to the NE, although out to +81 and to be honest there isn't too much difference.

The +168 is pant-wettingly gorgeous!! Would be a memorable event if it were to come off, however, it is a very fragile evolution and there will be lots of twists and turns before next Thursday.

It's my understanding that the effects of the SSW are still not being modelled. Dunno if this is still the case - chiono, lorenzo, anyone?

Sorry Dave I should have been more clear - I meant it has leant more towards the UKMO than the GFS. And it ought to lead to a similar +144.

ECM very similar to UKMO out at +120, will we see a shift in stance from the Met Office as a result, or will there still be too much uncertainty to firm up on their forecast?

UKMO at +144 is beautiful! Just wish it went to +168!!

In the short/mid term it's an improvement on the 6z, but it's still not soothing my fears particularly - that SW is hanging around doing a lot of damage to the heights that want to build in the area. The ECM really is the crucial run (seems like we say that every day).

If this was to suffer a significant downgrade it would be 10 times worse than the December letdown! I am still bowled over by the ECM +168! I reckon some places would have their deepest snow in many a year!

http://www.meteociel.com/ Scroll down to "Modeles" +120 ECM is okay, although it's starting to look a little messy.

Probably the last frame of reasonably accurate output at +96 and the ECM has followed suit with the others! YES!

Agreed. Not to get too philosophical but when FI shows the same thing repeatedly does it become less FI? At +312 we have a bit of the PV dropping into Scandi...now that can't be bad!! (yes I know it's FI, but I can dream)

Look at that beautiful E'ly at +240! That's 3 consecutive runs with a similar outcome at that range! The SE is going to FREEZE!!!

Not to count my chickens before they are frozen, but to have these synoptics in the higher resolutions is amazing, and not to labour the point but the effects of the SSW have yet to be felt!!! This cold spell could lay some excellent groundwork for what could potentially be a very cold end to the month and beyond!

At +150 the GFS is broadly similar to this morning's run, better heights further north, lower heights in near continent. FI could be another cracker!!!

There is the possibility that the 6z is an outlier, however can you imagine the pandemonium in here if 12z continues down similar lines? Then the ECM 12z follows suit? As SM says, that's 2 runs in succession showing a similar output in the far reaches of FI - it seems that the effects of the SSW are starting to be factored into the outputs.

At +288 we have -10hPa covering the whole of the British Isles, with the -15 not far off the east coast. Snow lovers nirvana, even if it is FI. However, the trend for increased heights over Iceland/Greenland in the medium to long term continues.

Check me out! Exeter, I'm available for employment - heck, i'll even make the tea!! 12z pretty messy after 144, FI still after 108 probably.

I think what many members are forgetting, and I include myself in this (until I thought about it this morning), is that the effects of the SSW which has only just occurred will not be felt until the middle of next week, and that the evolution to colder conditions this weekend are, to some degree, a bit of a bonus before the main event (hopefully). Up to +120 and it's broadly similar to the 6z, slightly lower heights over Scandi and E. Europe.

I actually saw a waxwing this morning! At +126 there are still pretty good heights above Scandi, hopefully we'll get a bit of a link up with the AH. It's definitely a colder run in the medium term.