Anti-Mild

If this is being modelled accurately, with convective snow off the North Sea I would fully expect to see level snow of 50cm+ somewhere in England - possibly Lincs or North Yorkshire, but everywhere is likely to see a fair bit of the white stuff.

Ok, I've been trying to remain circumspect about this upcoming event, but it's now getting close to the reliable timeframe and this is shaping up to potentially be the most potent easterly since February 1991 and I find myself getting caught up in the ramping. It's been a mantra on Netweather since I joined waaaay back in 2005 but we just need another couple of runs to feel more secure in this. ECM is being stubborn, and until we have cross-model agreement it's going to be a nervy wait until it's really on the doorstep. I told my brother today that a "significant cold snap" was coming.....apologies if I've gone and jinxed it.

Yeah I remember 2005 well, I was so excited for the spell, told all my relatives and friends what was coming and how biblical it was going to be and the closer it got the less the impact was forecast to be. I also remember on the 27th (I think) that the dewpoints were too high and the snow had turned to wet drizzle and I remember being gutted! That is one of the many reasons why I will not get excited about this until it's right on the doorstep, and I am certainly not telling anyone to stock up on essentials as I've been burned by that far too many times before! That said, even if it a watered down version of what's being modelled it'll still be a notable event.

It might seem like wishful thinking but I think it's more to do with 13 years of model watching experience, but there's no way that the HP is going to be that far north. I would suspect that the GFS will be a significant mild outlier towards the back end of the run.

It looks like it's all falling into place for our little island,........ BUT we've been burned too many times before for me to get hyped up about this. Yes there's a SSW but it's no guarantee we'll be in the best location for it. Until these amazing charts are at +6 I'm not allowing myself to get carried away. having said that, it's gotta happen one of these times, no?

Given the UK weather rule that states that in winter the worst case scenario is the one most likely to come to fruition that is my worry also.

Funny you should say that, my sister and I were saying 2 weeks ago that this winter "feels" more like the winters of our youth in the 80's and 90's, so fingers crossed.

Primary rule for a forecasted cold spell for the UK: "unless all 3 models are showing agreement then the cold spell will be hugely downgraded. It doesn't matter which model is showing the mildest outcome it will be correct regardless of recent performance"

In all the years of model watching the 06z is the best i've seen for cold and snow prospects. In years gone by I would have got overly excited, told all my family and friends to stock up on tinned goods, and then look like a fool when it doesn't transpire. Therefore this time round I am looking at the run with a healthy dose of scepticism and the knowledge that there's a 99.9% chance that the run will be either watered down drastically, or by +384 we'll have a mild SW feed! My gut is telling me that we will get the N'ly around or just after New Year, followed by another 24-36 hour N'ly event around the 5th or 6th, probably with some now in the usual places. What we will certainly get is wails of anguish at the inevitable downgrades, proclamations of the winter being over, and posts bemoaning the fact that the UK never seem to get the breaks for extreme winter cold. Whatever happens it's going to be a fun ride, and there's always a chance........isn't there?

Haha this takes me back! I think it was 2006 when I first started SACRA, although SQ1 has taken on the mantle since. I used to be Number 1 but not sure if this is still the case as I am only an occasional poster now, preferring to lurk in the shadows and let much more intelligent people analyse and explain the models. Looking forward to what promises to be an interesting season ahead!

I think we have become "sofetened" by a long spell without a severe winter, and I agree with JH that a repeat of the big 2 would cripple our infrastructure. Back in January 1993, I think around the 13th, my area (central Perthshire at the time) was hit by a blizzard that was accompanied by storm force winds. it snowed from around 7pm on the Sunday until about midnight on the Monday. At the time I lived way out in the sticks. we (mum, dad, me, brother and sister) lost power at about 10am on the Monday, The heating pipes froze in the afternoon, we couldn't get out of the house as the drifts were too extensive. Luckily we had a coal fire so at least the living room was warm. We heated water for hot water bottles over the fire and cooked soup in the same manner. It was too cold to venture out and we were all in bed by 5pm. On the Wednesday the farmer cleared the snow from our drive and we were able to get into my grandparents in Perth to shower and get a decent meal and by Thursday the temperature rocketed and everything thawed and that resulted in lots of flooding in Perth and the surrounding areas. The point I'm trying to make is it all sounds like a hoot to be snowed in, but it very quickly loses it's fascination.

I'm feeling discouraged this morning. I had expected a decent cold spell this week, but it is fizzling out with barely a whimper. It just seems that if the weather gods can find a tiny mild spanner to throw in the winter works of the British Isles, then they always find a way! Moving forward, February is usually the least mobile month, and there are tentative signs of something juicy from the North, although I reckon that the NE will ultimately provide the interest for coldies.

The trend for the Scandi High backing west is encouraging, but I'm trying so hard not to get excited as there have been too many 'encouraging signs' in the years gone by that have fizzled to not very much.

I would love to see a proper midwinter E'ly, coming to us straight from the heart of Russia, something I don't think we've had since Jan 1987. Feb 1991 had one like that, so did November 1993 but they didn't have the same depth of cold pool to draw from. The jet is weaker to our north on this run, might prove interesting at around +180 onwards!

i know it's just the 6z, but it'll be interesting to see if the trends for heights to our NE remains, and also if the tendency for further drifting off in a NE'ly direction is maintained. Whatever happens htis place is going to be buzzing come 4pm!

Morning all! I have been a member of this forum for a long time, and I cannot recall a more complex and unpredictable period of model watching! Once the LP on Fri/Sat is past it must surely get a bit more "steady", but in which direction will it head? The models seem interested in building heights over Scandinavia, but there is also an argument to be made for a flatter, more zonal pattern. FWIW i think we will end up with a HP centred over the Shetlands with a slack E'ly flow, bringing cold and dry conditons over the country - seasonal but not snowy.

The N. Hempishere ice levels for this year have a very close correlation with the levels seen in 2008 and 2009, more especially 2009. Just one factor in what may come over winter but I suppose it's encouraging given what happened during those respective winters. Shame we won't have Glacier Point's input this year

Many thanks!

I asked the question earlier today but it got lost during a busy time, but where and how can I create these composite images?

Off topic but can someone provide me with a link to the site where I can create the images showing pressure anomalies (like the one mushy has posted for july). Thanks in advance!

If we end up with a May CET of 10.2 then the Spring CET will be 6.97 - the same as 1941 and coldest since 1962.

UKMO and GFS wildly different at +96. FI no further than +72. Give it another couple of days!! Out at +114 and we have a 928mb low which patently is not going to happen! Until that gets within high res and is modelled correctly then the GFS is as good as useless!

It's been snowing here pretty solidly since about 10pm yesterday, but it's the snow equivalent of drizzle - snizzle! As such we've had an additional dusting, but there has been a bit of a melt as well. In previous winters I reckon we've done better here than in most other parts of the country, so I suppose it's time to share the love. Except it's not....I want it all for myself!!![img]http://forum.nwstatic.co.uk//public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.png[/img]

Out to +78 on the 12z GFS and on the 6z it had the -5 850hPa isotherm running parallel to the east coast, on the 12z it's up the west coast. Slightly better heights to the NE as well. Looks like another slight delay on the milder stuff! The UKMO is out to +72 and also looks to be a slight improvement on the 0z. As many of our experts have said, it's proving very difficult for the Atlantic to shift the cold block - I expect further delays on the breakdown.

It seems that because the snow showers today are coming from a SSE direction, the N. York Moors are gobbling up the snow before it gets to us! Watching the radar is driving me mental! I know that the front should be over us by mid-evening but I expected to have had something before now!