Anti-Mild

Hey, that's a trademark you know!! Excellent 12z from GFS, and as others have said, because of our current spell of cold weather I think that confidence regarding the evolution out beyond +192 is higher - if it can be done once it can be done again. WRT the current spell, from a personal POV I would say that it reminds me most strongly of November 1993. Not because of the synoptics but because of the amount of snow, the length of time it has hung about, and the depth of cold.

Hats off to you Mr Brown!! Because of your 'even larger teapot' stance you do get a lot of abuse on this forum, and although I feel that sometimes you do yourself no favours, nearly all of the abuse is totally unwarranted. It takes courage to issue a detailed winter forecast, particularly if you are as well known as you are, and you are daring to forecast a mild winter. It takes a great deal more courage to admit that you are wrong, especially as there will be a large faction hoping that you fall on your face.

Understatement of the year there!! The charts at 192 onwards are stunning - enough to bring a tear to the eye of the perpetually disappointed snow lover!! My own confidence is growing with regard to this coming cold freezing spell, but I will be a lot happier if UKMO gets back on board later.

I was going to say the exact same thing! A very strange run that is totally at odds with any other tun in the last few days. I'm sure the op will be a mild outlier in the short/medium term.

How about we wait until we see the ECM ensembles before we start reaching for the Prozac? Come on people - taken in isolation the runs this morning are brilliant. It's only because of the comparison with the 12z's from yesterday that makes us think that it's all gone the way of the pear! I still think the runs are fine this morning, and the 0z GFS would still give us a lengthy cold spell. Admittedly if the ECM run has support from the other members then we ought to be concerned, but over the last couple of days the ECM op has been a mild outlier.

Ah yes, the mighty JMA. I'm sorry but pitted against the GFS and the UKMO the JMA is exposed as a bit of a comedy model! ECM should start rolling out soon, hopefully with an evolution closer to that of the GFS.

Just seen the 6z ensembles and the operational run, whilst not an outlier, is definitely towards the colder side of the runs. However, the resolution of the op is greater so I always place more faith in that anyway I'm trying so hard to keep my feet on the ground but it's very difficult given the 6z run. It's only a multitude of previous disappointments that is keeping me from going ramp-crazy!!

Better heights between Greenland and Svalbard at +120 on the 6z, as well as a better Jet profile. It'll be interesting to see how things shape up at around +240 on this run, it should be a cracker!!

Great stuff GP, particularly the composite for January - that indicates a synoptic pattern not seen for ages, and not at all by some of the younger members of the forum. It also ties in nicely with your forecast for the winter. Possibly a very interesting festive period ahead in terms of the weather!

I'll go for 6.2c please!

At the SST profile for a negative NAO is looking a lot better than it did earlier this week. The negative anomaly had all but disappeared on Tuesday. Must have been an error in the analysis or summat!

This warming seems to be reflected in the time series of 30hPa at the North Pole: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html It looks encouraging but the same time series showed an anomalously warm stratosphere through much of Autumn 2007, until it suddenly and dramatically flipped to cold almost exactly on the 1st of December

Amazing piece of work by GP, and enough to give cause for optimism in the coming winter. Basically, as I understand it, we ought to see a colder than average winter but there are a few factors that may spoil the party.

Might I suggest to everyone that model runs past +144 are essentially useless, so the appearance of a Beasterly at +240 is never gonna hapen. If you want to know what it's going to do in 10 days use the ensembles for a broader look because the charts will not get it. How many times has the perfect synoptics been shown, persisting until +72 and then just like that.......it's gone!!! (Little bit of a Usual Suspects moment there)

It got all the way down to 0.5c this morning here in my own little micro frost pocket. Currently 6.1c, mostly cloudy but with a few breaks. No wind to speak of. Hopefully it'll be a traditional Bonfire Night.

And if the PV is suppressed this may allow greater a greater degree of Westerly extent of the good ole Siberian High, which should cool the continent down, and perhaps enhance snow cover even more, possibly further strengthening a negative AO signal, further weakening the PV, etc..... As you say, only time will tell. I sure as hell will not attempt a forecast for this winter! Since I joined Netweather almost 5 years ago, and before that the BBC Weather forums, this is the toughest winter to call as it almost all hinges on one highly unpredictable element.

Interesting stuff there Tamara, and potentially good news for those of us hoping for a weak PV this coming winter. True the Siberian snow cover was poor towards the start of October, but it has since grown significantly and is in much better shape than the corresponding date in 2008. As has been stated elsewhere on this forum, a lot of factors seem to be in the right place, and if ENSO wasn't an issue I would expect Winter 2009/10 to be a cracker, but El Nino is one hell of a fly in the winter ointment! It seems bizarre that the nature of our winter is dependent on how warm a particular area of ocean surface gets!

Ummmmmmmm,.......6.6c please.

You see this is why there can be no comparison between this current minimum and the Dalton or Maunder minimums. There is no way possible that sunspot 1028 would have been picked up 200 years ago, yet it's enough of a spot to give an SSN of 11. Modern technology is going to skew the data when taken in comparison to data obtained prior to the advent of this technology.

There are many reasons why we have seen warming, this is just another one to add to the list!!2 days since last sunspot seen, solar flux still at 72, SSN is 0. According to the last prediction by Hathaway we ought to have a SSN at the end of 2009 of approx. 20. Given the recent upturn in activity there is a chance that this may occur, however the sun is forecast to get quieter again so there may yet be further amendments to his forecast. Solar monitoring continues to be very interesting.

9.7c please.

Somewhat predictable (see my earlier post) although interesting that they insert a disclaimer about a 1 in 7 chance of a cold winter. At the end of the day they have managed to issue a forecast that manages to say practically nothing.

If I may I would like to hazard a guess at their updated forecast due to be released shortly: Indications are that winter precipitation is likely to be near or above average over much of northern Europe. For the UK, Winter 2009/10 is likely to be wetter than last year. Indications are that winter temperatures are likely to be above average over much of Europe including the UK. For the UK, Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder than last year. Not much change from their July forecast. I don't believe that the Met Office is in the business of backing down. Admittedly there are signals that back up this forecast, although there are also contradictory signals. As has been suggested by others in other topics, I feel that the MetO factors AGW into their forecasts to a degree that effectively nullifies any chance at accuracy that a LRF might have - I cite their recent seasonal forecast track record which is no better than Piers Corbyn's.

Sunspot number all the way up to 31!! Out of interest I'd like to know when the last time was that the sun had 2 sunspots showing on it at the same time.

Certainly looks like cycle 23 to me......very strange!