Anti-Mild

Acording to spaceweather we are up to 192 spotless days in the year, or 80%. If the remainder of the year repeats the same proportion we would end up with 292 spotless days, which would put us second behind 1913 (311 or 85%). Of course, if every day from now until 2010 was spotless we would end up with 316!! Who's to say it won't happen?

Well, almost to the half century..... http://www.spaceweather.com/ Will the sun have the character to grind out a deserved hundred, or will the sunspots make the crucial breakthrough? Whatever happens, the longer the sun is in a quiescent state the lower the eventual maximum will be. Will the Kyoto Protocol eventually be subjected to amendment?

They do take pains to imply that the effects of reduced activity would be negligible; flying in the face of the historical smoothed sunspot number v. global temperature correlation.

It still might, it just wouldn't be much of a peak!!

Oh well done Tamara, now we'll have one tomorrow!!! Just one more week and it puts this current run into the top 3. I don't know if this has been posted before but I just found it: http://www.gopexiles.com/?p=2760 Interesting little snippet although I remain to be sold on the "2c range" aspect. That said, unless the sun goes crazy over the next couple of years I believe we will be looking at an amplitude of between 50 and 70 for cycle 24, which, IMHO, is bound to have a cooling effect on global temps. Enough to counteract AGW? I think yes, and then a little bit more.

Now I'm getting on a bit - memory not what it used to be and all that - but that bit seems to contradict something I'm sure I read in early 2008. I'm sure Mr Hathaway stated then that C24 wasn't abnormal but if things hadn't picked up by January 2009 then it might start to cause some concern amongst solar physicists. I reckon Mr Hathaway's going to need a really good chiropractor as his back must be shot to pieces with the amount of times he has shifted the goalposts!!!!

Same as September 1971............14.0c please!

The Spaceweather website is saying we had 52 spotless days in a row in July, August and September last year - I don't remember this at all!I just had a brief look at the archives on the Spaceweather site and there appears to have been no activity between 25th June and 23rd September aside from a couple of proto-sunspots - only thing is, that makes 90 days, while the proto-sunspots would make the periods about 40 and 30 days!

I think if we have still had no spots by the 2nd of September that would put us 3rd all time. This time next week we'll be 5th equal.As concerned as I am about the depth of minimum we possibly face, I'll feel a sense of disappointment if this stretch doesn't make it past 50 days http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif !

Crikey, that 300km southward shift is bad news for you noggin, Bristol will end up with the climate of Manchester!! I, on the other hand, should get used to a climate more like Edinburgh!

Cold reading is bunkum, although it takes a lot of talent to do it well. Derren Brown himself is a total genius. Spookily good at what he does.

badboy has raised an important, and potentially disastrous, aspect of this quiet sun. What if it doesn't pick up? What if it skips over Dalton and heads to a Maunder minimum? Just like badboy and many others on this forum I would welcome a return to cold and snowy winters. Indeed Little Ice Age style winters would be my idea of heaven. But, winter would not be the only season affected. How would we react to winters that last from November to April, wet and cool springs, short and cool summers, and cold and stormy autumns? In a world that doesn't have enough resources to support the population as it stands at the moment, how will things pan out if cold growing seasons mean there is even less to go around? How will such shortages affect world economy? Would countries end up at war over crops? A couple of years back, before the sun started this quiet period, I would have welcomed a Maunder minimum, hoping for 1963/63 every other year. However, that was before it got real and I think I was wishing for something that I didn't think would really happen - like the Gulf Stream shutting down. Now, as the sun lurches towards serious inactivity, it all seems a bit worrying. Don't get me wrong, cold winters year after year would be manna from heaven for most on here, but will the cost be too great?

Imagine having this monster fly in through your window!!! It's giving me the heebie jeebies just thinking about it!! Apparently it's a giant Asian hornet - 2.2 inches of terror with a sting that apparently feels like "having a red hot nail hammered into you! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_giant_hornet

Would you believe that it took me by surprise! I had forgotten all about it and I was driving between Hartlepool and Middlesbrough, there was total cloud cover (although quite thin) and it just got dark, not like twilight but like nothing else I have ever seen. I remembered what was going on so I parked up and got out and it was definitely noticeably cooler. Very odd, very eerie experience. I'd love to see another one but will have to live to 115 to make it to 2090, and at that age I'm not sure I'll be that bothered!!

This lack of activity is very interesting - although not for aurora watchers!! I am of the same opinion as Fred in that this forthcoming Dalton-type minimum will affect the climate over and above the effects caused by AGW, leading to a period of global cooling, with some parts of the world experiencing this to a greater degree. Certainly if we continue in the same vein, 2009 will end up with more than 280 spotless days, possibly sneaking into the top 3 all time.

I was i Bournemouth in early June and it was very hot and sunny. My brother lives in a flat above Borders in the town centre. Back on topic: I reckon these last 3 summers show the cyclical nature of weather in this country. It's possible that winter will start to show this as well.

I'm not sure if I classify as an older member (I'm 34), but as far as I am concerned this summer, just like 2007 and 2008, will be remembered for the rainfall totals and as such they are not average summers. They do remind me of the summers in Scotland during the mid 80's when it seemed to be a procession of rainy day after rainy day (summer 1985 had 453.6mm of rainfall against 284.9 for the 71-00 average, 1988 had 374.9mm) No doubt that 2003, 2005 and 2006 were better than average - which makes the last 3 seem all the worse. To find a truly average summer I reckon 2002 fits the bill most closely in recent times, temps +0.2, -0.5, and +0.8 relative to 71-00, and rainfall very close to average.

Official CET for July in at 16.1c If every month for the rest of the year has the 71-00 avergae we would end up with a CET of 9.96 - same as last year. If every month for the rest of the year had the same CET's as last year we would end up at 9.75c - dead on 71-00 average. To equal the warmest year on record, each month would have to be 2.1c higher than the 71-00 average. To equal 1996's figure of 9.2c, each month would have to be 1.8c below the 71-00 average. My preiciton for the end of the year figure: 10.04c

If the El Nino does end up being one of the strongest on record (and at the moment that seems particularly doubtful), there is no guarantee that the annual global temp will be the warmest ever. And even if it is, there is nothing to suggest that the UK will experience it's warmest ever year. Yet more alarmist nonsense perpetrated by the mass media!! My advice, ignore it. By all means debate, but ignore. Thank you.

17.6 please. Unsettled first half, warm/hot and sunny second half (I hope).

17.5c please.

Hmmmmmm, I think I'll go for 15.1c por favor. Gracias.

There does seem to have been less wasps than in previous years although there are still loads of bees. I just noticed something this morning whilst walking the mini A-M's to school - there is a group of ash trees just across the road from my house and they have died! Whether that's from the cold I don't know, perhaps they had Dutch Ash disease !

A couple of my perennials haven't come back this year. On the flip side, my dicentra has gone absolutely berserk and is about 4 feet high!!

Jeebus, great picture! It's surely not going to be long before the dome collapses. Many thanks for the updates Bob!