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Grimers

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    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Grimers

    11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    Wouldn't even call it a storm on that, max gusts on the GFS are generally 35-40mph.

    EC however does ramp it up with 60mph gusts quite widely.

    Yes, hence why I said potential, and as the UKMO model has already developed the low, it could potentially develop further.

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Daniel* said:

     

    Honey G sort of music? :wink: 

    I think some folk are getting ahead of theirselves and in all likelihood may end up getting disappointed. I think it's rather clear by now we're not going to see any deep cold in November. The charts above are flat and mobile, wet and cool, which has characterised a string of winters which we daren't speak of, I'm not quite sure what you're seeing - do not associate blues with cold especially with maritime sourced winds which offer very little, it's going to be a long winter, some composure is needed? 

    I'm not getting ahead of myself, neither am I excited, I'm just describing what the charts show. :)

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Grimers

    3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Yes, it's been the similarities between ECMWF and GloSea 500hPa GPH and MSLP anomalies that grab the eye foremost (GloSea's respective ENS mean fields and +ve anomaly probabilities below).

    2cat_20161101_mslp_months24_europe_deter_public.png

    2cat_20161101_mslp_months24_europe_prob_public.png

    2cat_20161101_mslp_months35_europe_deter_public.png

    2cat_20161101_mslp_months35_europe_prob_public.png

    2cat_20161101_z500_months24_europe_deter_public.png

    2cat_20161101_z500_months24_europe_prob_public.png

    2cat_20161101_z500_months35_europe_deter_public.png

    2cat_20161101_z500_months35_europe_prob_public.png

    Looking at this output, especially noting the lower than average pressure over the Atlantic, could mean a higher likelihood of snow events from Atlantic fronts rather than off the continent? This is just a theory which may suggest heavy but rare snow events.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Grimers

    11 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Fascinating update from Ian as always (for which many thanks). I'm beginning to wonder if this may be a winter for fans of cold rather than for fans of snow.

    Blocked anticyclonic conditions in midwinter can easily deliver ice days under inversion - lingering mist/fog can easily keep even London close to or below freezing - and it doesn't matter if there isn't a huge cold pool source to tap into.

    I'm wondering if we may be due something we've not been for a fair while - cold winter anticyclonic conditions, no snow, but plenty of cold.

    I'm pretty sure you get snow at least once with any cold Winter... But, yes it's looking that way seen as the predictions are for a drier than average Winter, but what we mustn't forget is even though drier than average conditions look likely, that doesn't mean there will be less snow, it normally means there will be less rain.

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Grimers

    9 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

    it's quite interesting actually as a couple of days or so ago, the GFS picked up on a signal for a quite southerly tracking low to wizz through with potential for gales, heavy rain and dare I say it 'the white stuff' for the same time period.....one to watch

    gfs1.pnggfs2.pnggfs3.png

    Yes, if that low took a more southerly track it could bring a widespread snow event to high and possibly low ground.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Ali1977 said:

    Can't post picture but at day 9 we have gone from a low pressure in NE Canada to a high pressure - just proves where we are with regards FI!!!  

    Although, this FI could be a good one as the PV over Greenland moves East it may give us a long drawn Northerly flow and a big Block to our NW - maybe!!

    Agreed, when colder conditions are forecast FI can be earlier than average.

    Mounting Setup

    in Weather stations and equipment

    Posted · Edited by Grimers

    I understand, but we are all well aware of the guy wires and stakes to hold them in place, we have had guy wires break before but that's because they were old, the ones I've installed recently are much stronger and are 3 mm thick. :)

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