[Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards]

There were two torrential downpours last night here.

[Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards]

There are torrential downpours to the SW of here.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The GFS model and the ECMWF model show a low over SW Ireland bringing light S winds and cool temperatures to W parts of the UK tomorrow and a low to the W of Ireland bringing moderate SW winds and cool temperatures to all parts of the UK on Sunday.

       

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Macole

Interesting chart there, just shows how unpredictable Hurricane Nicole's track is.

[Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards]

There are heavy downpours to the W and SE of here.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I even found a couple of interesting GEFS 6z perturbations showing wintry weather from the Arctic sweeping south for the turn of the month.

P7 is a cracker!

I agree, if P7's charts were to materialise, there'd be snow across upland regions.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean shows high pressure nudging in from the w/sw next week and even towards late october a strong ridge is maintained with a gentle flow from the near continent so it looks like a very pleasant benign spell is on the way which could last a considerable while.

Yes, if it wasn't for this unsettled weekend, we would've had a very long interrupted spell of settled conditions.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The GFS model shows a low over W Ireland giving strong SW winds for W parts of the UK on Sunday.

   

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The WRF-NMM model shows showery conditions for all parts of the UK tomorrow.

   

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The UKMO model shows a low over W Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland bringing strong SW winds to all parts of the UK on Monday.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

36 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Glad to read Nick F latest positive thoughts this morning on this scenario. Really, quite a strong persistent block for the time of season,aided and better by the strong warm air affected poleward . As he hints come November the continental flow will turn markedly colder. Positive picture for lovers of cold emerging.

C

I agree! I feel the EC seasonal output may well be correct this year, but you never know what will happen at this stage.

[Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards]

It looks like there will be some thundery rain tomorrow afternoon here!

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The GFS model and the ECMWF model show a low to the SW of Ireland bringing light SE winds and cool temperatures to all parts of the UK tomorrow.

   

 

 

 

[Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Saturday afternoon in to Saturday night could provide some possible thunder in parts of the South and Southwest. Lowering heights from an area of low pressure in the Southwest quadrant of the UK will push fronts SW to NW, low ELT's, steepening lapse rates and some convective potential providing possible hail and thunder in any heavy showers. It's been a while!

Hmm, I think my hopes for thunder are being drowned out by my hopes for snow...

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

Both the GFS model and the ECMWF model show a high over the E Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing light SE winds and cool temperatures to all parts of the UK.

             

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

16 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Wow...

The chart is for t+348 hours so is to to be taken with a pinch of salt of course.

Still, the anomaly forecast is remarkable, is the GFS picking up on a signal for a increasingly blocked Atlantic perhaps?

WOW, that's a stunning chart from the GFS model! Cold sums it up!

[Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards]

14 hours ago, Supacell said:

Looks like an early morning wake up call for anyone south of Lincoln this morning.

Image courtesy of https://www.lightningmaps.org/

Well, what do you expect, it's in Lincolnshire after all!

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I can't believe I missed the 18z last night, what a cracker of a Northerly..it just shows what could happen with a direct hit, even in October!

This is something else! I'm not sure how often this setup occurs at this time of year, but it's obviously possible!

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The GFS model and the ECMWF model show a high over SW UK on Thursday and Friday bringing light S winds and cool temperatures to all parts of the UK.

        

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

30 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Certainly would be in winter but not that much cold air to tap into so early in the season.

Still, if a trough were to set up in Northern/Central Europe and it were sustained.... 

Yes, you're absolutely right. I was sort of in my Winter mind...

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Interestingly the MO update mentioned a sw / ne split next week.

Yes, and that's not that apparent in the UKMO model...

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The GFS model shows a high that moves in from the W into the UK through next Wednesday and Thursday.

      

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z FI

 

Atlantic wouldn't be coming through there in a hurry

That is some "Arctic Blast"!

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016]

The UKMO model develops a high in the middle of the Atlantic giving light W winds across the all parts of the UK on Monday and Tuesday.

 

[Winter 2016/2017: Preliminary Prediction]

I just think it will snow at least once this Winter here.