Jordan S

A colder northwesterly feed still shown in the wake of a low pressure system moving southeast over the top of high pressure out West around the 3rd/4th this high then like I said yesterday shown to sit to the southeast of the UK.. This would bring a spell of rain southeast over the country with wintry showers for Scotland. The Gfs also showing colder conditions for particularly England and Wales from around 5th of January until the end of the run really with a slack feed off the continent this would bring very Frosty nights with daytime temperatures staying in the low to mid single figures for central and southern parts there would be fog too in places perhaps freezing fog and mostly dry for these areas as Atlantic disturbances are kept at bay to the Northwest of the country with milder but not particularly mild conditions for Ireland. 5th.. 7th.. 8th.. That's the Gfs but Gem and Ecm very different surface wise with a more established strong west or northwesterly flow across the UK, bringing eventually some rain to most parts during the time period after the 5th which is when the Gfs keeps things settled and increasingly cold from stagnent conditions and no source of mild air except for northwestern areas. Strong winds would also be a feature too with the ecm and particularly the Gem as increasingly active low pressure systems move across the Gem in particular showing a very unsettled 6-10 days with heavy rain sweeping through even a little snow to some places but the emphasis would be on increasingly stormy conditions going by the Gem with milder then colder intervals alternating at first then colder generally as a southerly tracking jetstream takes place. Ecmwf.. 5th.. 7th.. 9th.. Gem.. 6th.. 7th.. 8th.. 9th.. Ofcourse its important not to get hung up on any particular model when there are various scenarios best looking at the average especially for the time period I'm showing and putting the average output of these together we have this.. 6th.. 7th.. 8th.. 9th.. Around the 5th or 6th high pressure still in charge for southern areas but a more unsettled pattern beginning to take place for northern areas this at first would be mild but then as more unsettled weather becomes more established more widely we would see colder incursions from the Northwest behind systems bringing the threat of wintry showers and perhaps back edge wintriness on occasion to any active frontal systems moving southeast. But this output is 7-10 days away so not to be taken too literally but the average is consistent atm.

Back with more detailed updates The shallow low which perhaps looked like giving a little rain to southwestern parts for new year's eve will fizzle out to the southwest of the UK as pressure rises around it.. high pressure becomes centred to the southeast of the UK after new years day with a light south east breeze for England and Wales upper air temperatures look mild but as the wind is coming off a cooling continent temperatures on the surface won't be particularly mild by day and some chilly nights especially for England and Wales with more influence from the Atlantic for Scotland and Northern Ireland. New year's day.. 3rd January.. An area of low pressure crossing the country bringing some rain to most though not significant with high pressure building northwards behind for a time bringing a brief northerly flow from East of Iceland southwards with air cold enough for sleet or snow for northern areas but very little would be around except for Scotland with some wintry showers whereas elsewhere would be mostly dry but some Frosty nights and a few cold days between the 3rd and 6th from that northerly flow. Freezing level.. After this brief northerly high pressure moves back in but is a transitory high on the move to the east of the UK. 4th.. By around the 7th high pressure is centred around Central /Eastern Europe with low pressure systems beginning to move in with rain returning but with some cold air over the country this would likely start off as wet snow for a time before turning back to rain before clearing away southeastwards. But this is speculative as its over a week out and likely to change somewhat. 8th.. With the Gfs central and southern UK having a lot of mostly dry weather cloud amounts vary but more sunshine than in recent days and quite cold especially shown for later in the first week of January for Scotland more unsettled and windy at times and milder with spells of rain quite heavy at times although some drier days at time although on the whole a gradual decline into more unsettled weather for most of the country towards and around day 10. Ecm the synoptics look more unsettled than the Gfs but tbh its just windier than the Gfs but has a lot of dry weather for all of the 10 day period for England and Wales with not much rain at all quite wet for Western Scotland shown the Ecm also makes less of the northerly for around the 3rd or 4th.. With just a northwest tilt to winds bringing cooler air down with patchy rain thereafter higher pressure for southern parts but the north has a brisk westerly flow with temperatures quite mild. 1st.. 4th.. 6th.. 8th.. Gem similar to the Ecm in terms of synoptics except for a more potent northerly around the 3rd although wetter with the band of rain around the 2nd into the 3rd and with more rain towards day 10.. 3rd.. 6th.. 8th.. Blending all three models together with the average output this is the output.. 3rd.. 5th.. 6th.. 8th.. Settled and dry for the most part for the next few days for central and southern UK with only a couple of occasions of rain mostly fairly light with western Scotland generally unsettled with some heavy rain at times with a brief colder interlude from the north or northwest around the 3rd with a band of rain preceding it with a few wintry showers for Scotland. Towards or around mid January things look likely to become more unsettled widely once again and perhaps a little colder generally too.

Outlook is mostly dry and settled for England and Wales more unsettled for Scotland and Northern Ireland although even here some dry days at times and mild by day and night at first. High pressure mostly dominant for central and southern areas with only brief interuptions to this with weakening bands of rain fizzling out to give drizzly and misty conditions but winds will turn more westerly which will give more breaks in the cloud than we've had recently come the new year. A more detailed look tomorrow.

For the next 10 days yes which is 6th January but I highly doubt the same synoptics will be churned out and come to fruition for the rest of the winter. Not even mid winter yet so like I said before way too early to scrap any cold or snow potential.

Come on? Its boxing day not February 26th! Weather patterns can change rapidly aswell as stick for some considerable time but way too early to write snow and/or cold off.

Hey everyone Hope you all had a fantastic Christmas. Just a short term update for now on the rain for parts of the south and southwest.. A very wet evening and first part of the night to come for southwestern parts of England and perhaps southern counties of England and South Wales with some very heavy bursts of rain mixed in as is already now taking place in southwest England this easing during the early hours and fizzling away there's been a fair amount of uncertainty with this in location of heaviest rainfall but as much as 15-30mm altogether likely for parts of southwest England, 10-15mm is possible for far southern counties of England and Wales so tricky driving conditions and localised flooding possible. Arome..

A band of rain pushing eastnortheast across the country tonight this mostly pretty light but becoming a little more organised as it heads East with some heavier bursts for central and Eastern areas later in the night but amounts of rain tending to be small for most with 1-3mm although locally 5-10mm small chance of a little snow on the highest ground of Northern England but mostly rain. Drier for Scotland with just a few showers these wintry on high ground, turning drier for southwest England and Northern Ireland later tonight fairly mild for southern parts but colder further north with a frost for central and northern Scotland in particular. Arpege.. Tomorrow the frontal rain moves away into the north sea with some brighter weather developing mild in the south with temperatures as high as 9-11c colder further north with low to mid single figures for northern England, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland although perhaps close to freezing for parts of northern Scotland for the whole day. During tomorrow morning into the afternoon showers will develop for Wales, central, southern and southwestern england these could be very heavy in one or two spots with parts of Wales likely to see 15-25mm of rain where showers persist for any length of time with one or two thunderstorms possible. Elsewhere mostly dry with just the odd shower with sunny spells. It will become windy for most of England and Wales later tonight into much of tomorrow. Arome.. Looking at boxing day more rain from a warm front and strong winds pushing into England and Wales in particular with perhaps some snow for a time for northern parts of England and Scotland before turning back to rain as milder air moves in.. The cold front from this low could become very slow moving and still be heavy for southern counties of England and Wales during boxing day night leading to another 10-20mm if this happens although it may clear away relatively quick but its more rain on saturated/flooded ground so needs watching. Gfs.. After boxing day high pressure likely to become more dominant in particular for central and southern parts of the UK from 27th-1st January atleast with most rain kept towards northwest Scotland. Thereafter the Gfs shows a gradual transition back to wetter and windier weather after New years day but too far out for too much confidence on that but it will likely remain mild out to day 10. Gfs.. Ecmwf.. Gem.. Hope you all have a good Christmas. ?️

Also the Gfs tends to underestimate maximum temperatures by 1 or 2c

Well said and my post was more for anyone else that does indeed frown upon it my post wasn't purely aimed at you btw.. Don't get me wrong some snow right now would be lovely I went to a lake today again that I posted pictures of on Saturday it has receded a lot in the last 2 days which is good.

You could say the last thing we also need is a repeat of a winter like 1962/63 which many seem to wish upon which is absolutely fine but that's if other weather types aren't frowned upon, remember many people died farms suffered with a huge loss of animals, food prices went right up, power cuts in loads of places and some places without heating for long periods of time which inevitably caused deaths yes it's rare to get that sort of weather and I've picked an extreme example but any snow and cold can be really harmful but it feels from reading some posts on here that excessive stormy and wet weather is somehow the only bad weather type that no-one should like and people who like that are almost made to feel ashamed but weeks of freezing cold and places buried in feet of snow is somehow okay, both weather types are harmful and cause damage and disruption to people and I feel some people forget this. The fact that you can have more fun in snow is irrelevant. One main reason why I'm not posting in the Mod thread much atm is If you aren't showing cold then no one cares about your input apart from a certain few. The bitterness to other weather preferences needs to stop. This is more aimed at anyone not just you. This very straight to the point post is made after over 3 years of reading the same stuff.

Arpege midday run had a very interesting scenario for boxing day with heavy rain falling as snow as it pushes into northern parts of England and Wales during the early hours with some quite heavy snow persisting here but that's unlikely given no other model shows this. Arpege.. Gem.. Icon.. Gfs.. Most likely scenario is for a brief spell of hill snow for northern areas more especially for Scotland before turning back to rain with areas of fairly heavy rain circulating around England and Wales during boxing day with strong winds too especially for the West but pressure will rise quite quickly in the low pressure centre so winds should ease quickly. Anyway so a north south split tending to be shown post boxing day with unsettled conditions for the north but drier for the south although not completely dry here turning very mild with a southwest flow with then signs of a more straight westerly flow for the new year with perhaps cooler northwesterlies as high pressure pulls out to the southwest by day 10. Gfs.. For the 30th You can see high pressure tries to extend south from Greenland trying to introduce a cold northerly but with high pressure a strong feature to the south of the uk and low pressure systems in the Atlantic being too dominant we see this pushed out of the way cutting the feed off and maintaining a mild southwesterly flow. The GFS then maintains a southwesterly then westerly flow across the UK towards new years day drier for the south at first then a gradual progression to more unsettled conditions more widely with high pressure slipping further south. GFS.. 29th.. 30th.. New year's day.. Ecmwf similar with the high pressure at first bringing a mild southwesterly wind but mostly dry for the south with it then having the high building to the west enabling a northwesterly to develop bringing colder air in although precipitation would still be mostly of rain for most except Scotland with low pressure diving Southeast over the north of the UK into Central Europe at day 10 with a brief colder northnorthwesterly air flow with wintry showers behind more persistent areas of rain pushing southeast for most of the country with strong winds too. 29th.. New years day.. A pretty mundane output in most people's opinion from both models but we shall see how things develop in the next few days but for the next 5-7 days so not looking anywhere near as wet as it has been particularly for southern UK with the exception of boxing day and tonight into tomorrow (Tuesdays) rain although this doesn't look significant at all but in 7-10 days signs of more unsettled conditions becoming more established once again for all and perhaps a little colder too but likely turning very mild for a time between boxing day and new years day.

With my preference winter 2013/14 can either be classed as one of the best winters for me in terms of how many storms or one of the worst in terms of no snow.

Personally I agree with this.

Morning Well It's the Gfs and more especially the Ukmo against the Ecmwf and Gem on what the output may be post Christmas with the Gfs and Ukmo bringing a brief settled ridge of high pressure before low pressure systems push back in bringing rain mostly but not exclusively to northern parts and then we have the Gem and Ecmwf which after boxing days potential rain turns much drier everywhere with a strong build of pressure after boxing day but not particularly cold as winds are south of east.. Ecmwf.. Gem.. Gfs.. Ukmo.. The most likely outcome I think is a north south split after boxing day with northern areas fairly windy at times with spells of rain and showers but for the south mostly dry for a few days i think after the 30th/31st things may turn more unsettled widely again but that's not definite as its over a week away we will have to see how things develop over the next couple of days as to have an insight to how long any drier weather lasts but atleast its looking dry for Christmas day for most. We have plenty of winter left for cold and snowy weather don't get too hung up on the model output too much atm.

The rain in the south continuing mostly on the light side but some heavy bursts continuing into the latter half of the night as is happening atm so an additional 5-10mm locally more in a few places where heavier bands are slow moving this all courtesy of a deep low pressure system skirting the south the wrap around weather front pushes East later tonight bringing more rain to Eastern areas by morning some of this reasonably heavy in one or two spots, winds becoming quite strong later tonight for England and Wales.. Drier for the north with a frost. Drier tomorrow but some showers moving through particularly for southwestern areas from time to time. The north stays mostly dry with just a few showers but cold, milder further south. The GFS showing a system pushing in on Christmas day night into boxing day with a little snow on the leading edge for Wales and central england before moving northeast as rain alot of uncertainty with this for example Arpege although it doesn't show the time frame in question you can clearly see no rain nearby and Icon not interested until much later into boxing day with this all being rain and further north.. Uncertainty that is yet to be resolved which should be done by tomorrow morning. GFS.. Icon.. Arpege..

Just for interest purposes the Nasa model early this morning began building high pressure over us for Christmas and beyond with it then ridging north into Scandinavia during the 28th and 29th allowing a cold northeastly flow with a few wintry/snow showers peppering Eastern areas. But not lasting long with the high moving back south over the uk by the 30th bringing calm dry and frosty conditions.

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Went back to watermead earlier the paths i was walking on last Monday are now completetly submerged and more areas are now innacessable. Let's compare to summer 2018 of the flooded field I showed yesterday along with the waterfall now..

Models really having trouble resolving the influence that the low on boxing day could have with the Gfs having it far south as a shallow feature keeping mostly dry weather with high pressure building in for a time. The high moves slightly east with more rain pushing into North West Scotland by the 27th. Ecmwf shows the low a much more significant feature bringing a very wet boxing day with some sleet and snow to some hills. Gem shows nothing but a mostly dry day with that low not in sight.. Ukmo shows that low becoming a more significant feature but moving into northern parts with no real build of pressure behind and an Atlantic pattern becoming more established with height rises towards Greenland. Worth treating model output even as early as boxing day with a sprinkle of salt atm and ofcourse this is salt on the wounds for anyone wanting particularly cold and snowy conditions. By tonight/early tomorrow they should firm up on boxing days weather.

It really was an Atlantic onslaught that Winter.. Didn't see one flake of snow that winter but I have to say the storms kept me more than happy apart from the fact that people had flooding in there homes ofcourse. Anyway had some heavy showery rain last night which gave 3.5mm now just sunny and breezy.

Mainly because winters just begun? Winter 2015/16 was much wetter than average for northern and western areas but not for the south east. Last time I've seen flooding worse than this was the winter of 2013/14 Its been a pretty exceptional spell of wet weather. I had a few photos of the flooding back then but don't think I've still got them which is a shame.

As @Mapantz has said let's just focus on weather that's happening atm and the next couple of weeks on here there's other threads to discuss historic weather..

Remaining mostly dry further north tonight with frost and fog patches for northern areas with just the odd shower. High resolution models backed away from the widespread slow moving rainfall for England today earlier this morning so a poor handle on it. But anyway drier spells in places tonight compared to last night but some showery rain moving northeast for England and Wales not good for flood effected areas a few mm's in places. Tomorrow starts dry for most but heavy rain moves into southwest England then spreads to other southern parts of England and Wales during tomorrow evening and then overnight.. uncertainty with how far north this will reach but the heaviest rain generally for southern and southeast England with perhaps as much as 20-25mm in one or two places but mostly 5-10mm for most areas effected. Drier further north with a frost and perhaps a few fog patches.

Nearby field flooded with a couple swans casually cruising across..

Had 17.5mm today and 10mm from Wednesday night into Thursday's rain. So 27.5mm altogether in the last 48 hours. Nearby fields are like rivers here with even a couple of swans now swimming on them where the river and stream has burst its banks combined with the quantity of rain obviously. Local tesco entrance flooded a bit too. Tesco..