Jordan S

Nice looking shower clouds along the grand union canal near broughton buckinghamshire this evening.. A rainbow too..

The Arome on the rainfall in the south this afternoon.. A squally back edge of the rain this evening. Showers behind this tonight some of them heavy and potentially accompanied by strong winds. For tomorrow a distinct line of heavy showers developing and will be slow moving across central areas.. falling as snow on high ground of northern England and north Wales later. Wednesday similar, snow potentially in the showers in northern areas again mostly on high ground but possibly to lower levels in places.. Looking back to the low I mentioned in my previous update for midweek so for thursday and the models differing on the track and to a lesser extent intensity of this, some models bringing it north into more central parts England and Wales and others moving it south of us into France. Rather tricky for them to get the detail correct, But nevertheless most likely outcome is low pressure moving through southern areas of England on thursday morning bringing rain for the south some of it possibly heavy. Temperatures very unusually low for May maximum temperatures of 5-7c in the wet weather in the south. Also depending on the exact development of this low, there is a small chance of some of the rain falling as snow on high ground in a few places on the northern part of this, a more northerly track (which is a possibility) taking precipitation upto central parts of Wales and the Midlands being where the greatest chance of snow on high ground would be. Arpege.. Likely scenario. Icon.. unlikely scenario with the low over France.. Not much change for later this week, low pressure developing quickly another very wet and windy spell on saturday for some especially the south and west of the uk, another spell of snow likely for mostly high ground of Scotland too which may be persistent and heavy, much warmer upper air temperatures (particularly compared with the next few days) moving into the south and east of England.. like others have said the Ecmwf probably closest to the mark this weekend and early next week.. Into early next week probably wettest in the south, though don't take this chart below literally. Likely remaining quite cold in the north next week but probably not as cold as this week.. perhaps a renewed mobile pattern developing later next week with high pressure to the southwest moving closer and drier weather but still wet at times in the south, but wetter in the north with a mainly westerly flow for the uk.. Though could be the case that low pressure systems move over the whole of the uk keeping all areas very unsettled.

For those in the southeast apart from the chance of showers in the next few days, more significant rainfall will return later monday into early tuesday. We've got the showers tomorrow, saturday and sunday for quite a lot of the uk, slow moving and some of them probably very heavy giving a significant amount of rain locally, sleet and snow likely at times in a few of these for high ground in the north, a small chance of one or two thunderstorms again but also a few places staying mostly dry with sunshine. Low pressure moving eastwards on monday, you can see it seperating away from a large low over to the far west then developing quickly as it crosses the uk,the centre most likely will be a little further south than the Gfs is showing, unseasonably windy with an active possibly in places squally weather front moving east on monday afternoon and monday night across England and Wales, the rain probably heavy at times and persistent in some areas with around 50mm likely for the north of England and south of Scotland. A possibility of snow falling on some high ground of southern or central Scotland, small accumulations could happen. The winds very strong in many places especially for the time of year with gales on some coastal areas and hills. Gusts of 40-50mph for most inland but for some coastal areas and on hills 50-60mph is likely and a little more than that possible in the most exposed location. The middle part of next week rather complex with areas of low pressure still likely to be on a southerly track.. the low from monday/tuesday brings colder air south with the potential for snow on higher ground in any systems coming in from the west/southwest for midweek.. more likely for central parts of England and Wales but otherwise more rain likely here and especially for the south.. Icon I think is probably closer to the outcome for the midweek period though the northern limit perhaps the Midlands and southwards. Ecmwf even further south though.. A low pressure system for later next week more likely to develop quite quickly bringing another potentially very wet spell and possibly very windy too at the moment more for the west and south of the uk, temperatures perhaps close to average next weekend in the south but it remains colder than average for the north though.. and the snow chance still likely to continue for Scotland. Looking further ahead Into the following week probably remaining unsettled especially the first half rain at times, more likely for the south though longer drier spells a little more likely compared with next week and the weekend. The weather in the north likely remaining similar. Temperatures average to slightly colder than average most likely aswell for all. A brief big increase in temperatures a possibility for the south and east.

There will be many showers tomorrow developing over Wales, the Midlands, northern England and Scotland bringing an end to a dry few weeks though not everywhere getting these..one or two thunderstorms a possibility. A line of heavy showers developing further south too they could also be thundery. Less than the daytime but these will continue tomorrow night heavy in a few places but mostly dry for east Anglia and southeast England.. heaviest showers and longer spells of rain on wednesday for parts of Wales, southwest,southern England with a higher chance of thunderstorms, these will be slow moving too giving useful and generally needed rain but also potentially causing localized flooding as the water runs off the hard soil. locally altogether totals for parts of England and Wales as much as 15-25mm by the end of wednesday, though some will not have much at all.. Quite likely more general rain develops in the southeast thursday morning which may be heavy. The outlook for next week similar though to add more detail higher pressure continues to be to the northwest of us, low pressure systems likely taking a more southerly track to the south of this high and into the uk from the west/southwest, with one possibly on monday bringing heavy rain and strong winds. After monday winds may be from the north at times in northern areas but generally west/southwesterly winds in central and southern areas, temperatures likely rising compared to the weekend. Longer spells of rain probably more for England and Wales most likely drier for Scotland with the continued chance of snow.

Low pressure to the southwest contributing to the southeasterly today remaining to the south next week moving east over the continent instead of pushing northwards, but another low pressure system moving down from the north during monday and tuesday along with a small area of rain, perhaps a little snow on high ground of Scotland. Generally showery for most of next week with winds mainly northerly/northeasterly, cooler than average. A while out but higher pressure likely remaining to the west of the uk but possibly to the northwest too into next weekend, Ecmwf.. low pressure will probably be close by, keeping showery conditions over much of the country and perhaps a longer spell of rain too, there will be drier spells ofcourse but remaining cooler than average for most and an increased chance of snow on high ground in the north. The following week looks to remain mostly unsettled, more significant rain a possibility with temperatures likely rising.

Some hill snow too by the looks of it if that low where to happen as shown, the end of the Gfs update although likely to change ofcourse, does offer something warmer returning just as general cluster has noted.

I just wanted to wait until the Gfs updated this evening so I wouldn't have to edit this to include it.. Even though there has been a fair amount of model output changes over the last 24-48 hours.. not much I think has changed with the outlook since.. high pressure will move into much of the country by wednesday next week bringing dry weather back to Scotland and northern Ireland, although now the possibility of a few showers developing for England and Wales on Tuesday before it becomes mostly dry for all here. That high pressure still more likely to be positioned just to our east and northeast later next week. Winds probably turn southeasterly for a time for many.. It will probably turn warmer for most, more particularly the west and south of England with temperatures likely reaching upto the high teens for some although perhaps cooler by the end of the weekend. Thursday Saturday The Gem has been showing a different placement of high pressure for friday-sunday next week but now it's moving back closer to the Gfs.. low pressure still could move close to the south or southwest too later next week with more model output showing the chance now, bringing the possibility of slow moving rain and showers into the south and southwest by the weekend, but for central, northern and eastern areas again it will probably remain dry. Here's the Icon and Ukmo with that very similar scenario with a low fairly close to the south with rain in the far southwest.. Icon.. Ukmo.. Though that rain may end up being kept away to the southwest.. keeping all areas mostly dry. The Ecmwf is showing a different placement of the high at the end of the week with cooler conditions and the high just to our north then northwest next weekend with it a little unsettled but does show the rain chance in the south and southwest later next week. A quick look at the following week and I think it's more likely that it turns unsettled for the southern part of the uk aswell as cooler with rain likely at times some possiblly slow moving, with higher pressure looking likely at the moment to be positioned just to our north with the influence extending over northern areas of the uk. This Gfs evening output shows this well. The exact synoptics may be different once we get to this week to some extent but i think this may be quite close to the actual outcome in this case. Scotland and northern Ireland may remain mostly dry and settled during the first half of that week, temperatures possiblly close to average in the north but in any wet weather further south then temperatures may be a few degrees below average but with any sunshine here in this pattern temperatures not too far from average.

A mostly dry outlook for the whole country up until the weekend where low pressure to the west may bring some rain into western and northwestern areas atleast so Scotland northern Ireland and parts of Wales before weakening.. even though the projected weather can change a lot a week away during early next week high pressure will move in from the west into many areas and by midweek it is likely to be over most or all of the country. high pressure likely to continue to be across much of the country later on next week but probably at the moment moving just to our east northeast. So it should stay dry for most especially at the moment for the east and north, this pattern would possibly allow warmer air to eventually move into parts of the country from the south or southeast.. low pressure could move close to or up in to most likely the south or southwest of England with rain and showers which would be slow moving with this more likely pattern, giving the chance of significant rain for some here but plenty of dry and sunny weather with occasional cloudier spells before then if it does happen. Was waiting on the Gem and Ecmwf midday update to appear on the site it has just updated and similar to their previous update on things for next week.. Gem.. Ecmwf..

Hi Does look like any warm up will be gradual during the next 7-10 days at least with a cool wind later in the week from the east/southeast for England and Wales keeping temperatures lower than normal for some and average for others, instead of a southerly that looked like a possibility for the south a couple of days ago.. plenty of sunshine throughout though ofcourse and cold nights, the chance of some areas of cloud drifting into the northwest later and possibly the south later in the week too depending on the highs position. Ukmo.. Gfs..

Morning Snow showers some heavy will be frequent for northern England this afternoon and a local covering is possible particularly if they become more organised and merge. Rain sleet and snow showers in areas south of here, although for most that do get any snow it will be a case of it falling but not settling and accumulating with sunshine in between them. An area of rain separated from a low to the northwest will move into parts of Wales then most likely into western and then into central or southern parts of England later tonight into tomorrow morning. It is a fairly small feature and most of the precipitation will probably be light though a chance some of it could be heavy, particularly for Wales where on high ground there could be 2-5cm. A few other places may have a light covering of snow including to lower levels from this. Any that remains during tomorrow morning turning mostly to rain, weakening and clearing away by the afternoon though possibly a lot of cloud left over for these areas with showers in the southwest.. Temperatures now more likely remaining close to average for most from tuesday with high pressure over the whole country until thursday where it may drift slightly east, mostly dry for many including Scotland and northern Ireland although upto wednesday a few showers is a possibility in some places which is a slight change from previous updates. High pressure probably over much of the country into saturday the exception possibly being the northwest. Most probably remaining dry, a fair amount of sunshine but some areas may have occasional cloudier spells depending on the exact wind direction.. Gfs..

Here's a satellite view from eumetsat of the cold front marked by the long stretch of cloud moving slowly south across England and Wales.. you can see areas of cloud to the southwest moving east northeast towards and across France in association with tomorrow's developing low pressure system.. Rain probably now moving into the southeast during the day tomorrow, so some of it persistent but mostly remaining south and southeast of London with the heaviest of this over northern France, possibly a mix of rain and snow over high ground at times. Just to the northwest of this likely largely cloudy with the chance of local patchy light rain possibly sleet. Alternatively though unlikely If the rain does stay away to the southeast then turning drier during tomorrow afternoon in the far southeast after an overcast and in some places possibly drizzly start. Here's the high resolution models for tomorrow.. Arome.. Arpege.. A slow moving line of showers may also develop tomorrow too and if this happens then probably placed northeast to southwest through the north and west Midlands, east Wales possibly into central parts of England too bringing showery precipitation some of it heavy with a mixture of rain, sleet and possibly snow falling. Sunday rain, sleet and snow showers probably widespread over England and Wales.. Less for Scotland and northern Ireland.. Outlook for the first half of next week largely unchanged, so temperatures probably back towards average for central and southern areas on tuesday and wednesday.. winds probably turn southeasterly/ southerly on thursday, frosts may continue but it may become slightly warmer than average by thursday-saturday also it looks right now that mostly dry weather will continue for many southern and eastern parts of England.. Gfs 2m temperatures.. Thursday.. Friday.. As an example here's the Ecmwf.. a view of the area of high pressure moving east into and through southern,central parts of England and Wales through next week shown in place to the east of us towards the end of the next week.. Midday ecmwf update..

The weekend looks cold with temperatures lower than normal, there will be snow showers moving into the north on saturday then a few sleet and snow showers into other parts of England and Wales as another flow of cold air from the Arctic moves south again, not quite as cold as the one we had on monday and tuesday, it will still feel particularly cold for this time of year especially for England and Wales. During saturday and in areas south and southeast of the Midlands and although there may be a few places that see sunshine at times. It looks as though it will be cloudy for many here during the day particularly the far south and southeast with less showers than everywhere else.. A possible exception to above on saturday is an area of low pressure moving north east through France which may push rain into the far south and southeastern part of England , although this is more likely to stay mostly or completely away to the southeast.. snow possible from this for the near continent.. Sunday will be cold with the sleet and snow showers in northern areas continuing and to lower levels too.. on lower levels in the south there will be a mix of rain, sleet and possibly snow in ones that develop.. Some places not getting anything and remaining dry and it will be sunny quite widely in between these. The models have been changing quite a frequently in terms of the position of high and low pressure systems around and over the uk, this still continues to a lesser extent with the Gfs in particular but a drier spell during the first half of next week in the south is still the likely option, the Gfs is less unsettled compared with the last couple of days of updates but the low on this update looks too south over the country. more unsettled in the north during the first half the week though with rain for a time most likely tuesday and again for scotland the chance of snow on high ground. Gfs less likely and more unsettled but it is trending drier.. Ecm.. high pressure that looked like it would move into the south from the west during Sunday now delayed a little until monday. Frosty nights for some, daytime temperatures will rise higher than the weekends for all. Drier by monday for central and southern areas of England and Wales and then probably tuesday and most likely wednesday too here with temperatures closer to average. Later next week.. temperatures may atleast for a short time rise above average in the south.

Just a quick update.. As an example of tomorrow's snow chance here's the Gefs probability of precipitation falling as snow for the uk tomorrow.. I wouldn't read too much into it but you can see tomorrow still more likely as was said yesterday for shower activity to develop fairly widely for England and Wales, Wales will see more frequent snow showers later tonight along with possibly east anglia by the morning.. not everyone catching these. A few locations in more central parts of England possibly getting a few snow showers through the afternoon others just one or two and some none at all again. ?️ Gefs.. Icon.. This possibility has already been mentioned with the snow chance increasing for thursday and friday in the north though Saturday is also now looking likely to be quite cold and quite like Mr Frost said.. sleet and snow showers possibly come back into many northern areas although perhaps some of any showers that develop being wintry in the south too on saturday. I still think the Gfs has the pattern over the country wrong during the first half of next week with the colder and also unsettled weather that it is showing for much of the country. The Ecm ensembles average show what I still feel is the more likely scenario though the high mabye slightly further south and west than what it's wednesday and thursday chart is showing.. a gradual rise in temperature atleast at first with this Scotland again probably remaining unsettled with possible snow on high ground. Although a chance The Gfs may still end up being right or at least closer so not to be ignored.

The cold front moving south tonight may fragment to some extent but a mixture of rain,sleet and snow within it tomorrow morning. Probably somewhat less shower development tomorrow for England and Wales to what was potentially expected a couple of days ago aswell as in my previous post, with the very unstable airmass looking likely to be across the north sea, but anyway showers still possibly developing further inland over central and southern parts of England though they will probably be infrequent with a small number of them.. most in these areas will stay dry and sunny though. Most of the showers around the coast especially the east coast with some getting inland for east Anglia, Wales, northern Ireland and possibly southwest England aswell as parts of northern Scotland where here they will be the most frequent, likely giving several cm's locally on higher ground with the chance of thunderstorms. Some changes to tuesday and similar to what (Thundery wintry showers) said a little earlier, showers are actually looking like being more widespread over England mostly because of a disturbance which may drift down in a more south southeasterly direction during the afternoon, these will also continue to fall as snow/hail to low levels, the possibility is there for one or two thunderstorms.. some here will stay dry though. Having another look ahead to next weekend and high pressure moving into southern areas remains more likely again more particularly Sunday and Monday, temperatures will probably rise a little in the south, still likely to be frosty nights. Saturday.. Sunday.. Monday.. The period monday to thursday 15th.. the Ecmwf and Gem I think have a more accurate view of the likely outcome.. it's more likely that high pressure will continue to be across central and more especially southern parts with temperatures perhaps rising further, possibly becoming warmer than average too in the south whereas Scotland is quite likely to be fairly unsettled at times with rain, snow possible on high ground. Gem.. Monday.. Tuesday.. Ecmwf.. Happy Easter

From very impressive temperatures that are like june for central and southern parts of England and Wales to unusually low temperatures for April for all that are more like January in just a 5 day period, the change as most know is during Sunday night into easter monday morning after a largely dry, sunny and relatively mild day for many on sunday, northerly winds arent unusual at this time of year ofcourse but the resulting air over the uk from the synoptics for Easter monday certainly are unusual.. as a quick example of the synoptics for monday here's the Gem and Gfs upper air temperatures, values of slightly below -10c likely in the north or at least Scotland for a short time but close towards -10c likely in parts of the south too.. Gfs.. Gem.. My update largely similar to my last but slight changes. Much colder upper air temperatures moving south along with temperatures significantly colder close to the ground behind a squally cold front on sunday night into monday morning, this clearing the south coast around midday, most showers around coastal areas but quite a lot of them inland too and falling as snow for many inland areas to lower levels especially in the north, the showers may be sleet for some in the south but some of them falling as snow here to lower levels too, ofcourse this very likely on higher ground here above 150m though any accumulating snow mostly likely for high ground of northern England northwards but some temporary small coverings a possibility further south to lower levels in any heavy showers before melting once they clear. Easter monday 12pm.. 6pm.. Along southwestern, southern coastal areas of England more likely a mix of rain and snow, then we have the likely hail showers in some areas aswell possibly in the form of graupel in some of them, thunderstorms likely in a few places these especially for Scotland, impressive rainbow photos I think are on the way for some.. ?️ daytime maximum temperatures probably 3-7c for most of the south, 1-4c for parts of the north and slightly below 0c locally in Scotland. Though temperatures dropping lower than these for some in showers. 2m temperatures.. some places will see no showers at all and apart from all this it will be sunny for many but feeling cold and very cold in the strong wind during the day and hard frosts for many on monday and tuesday night. Temperature possibly down to around -10c in the coldest places of Scotland on monday night. During tuesday similar to monday for many, but probably more rain and snow mixed for the south in any showers but snow likely to continue to fall to lower levels in the north, thunderstorms possible again, though perhaps less of them than monday but sunny and cold between and away from showers. Maximum temperatures at the moment likely to be 5-8c in most of the south, locally in Scotland once again they may stay just below 0c with other northern parts having 2-6c. Overview.. One or two disturbances in the flow are a possibility too giving the potential for a longer spell of sleet and snow for larger areas though the emphasis at the moment is on showers rather than anything organised. Not much change to what I said on wednesday from midweek to the weekend so a shorter update. A less cold airmass still likely over the uk midweek so drier with any precipitation more likely of sleet and or rain in the south and same for the north aswell at least to lower levels except possibly Scotland.. similar for Thursday and Friday though the snow chance may increase in some northern parts again also potentially very windy in some places with winds rotating around an area of low pressure probably moving southeast over or just to the east of the uk. Next weekend though this may change as it's a long way out but fairly likely now high pressure to the west or southwest moves east or northeast into atleast southern parts of the uk during the 10-11th possibly more on sunday and monday with drier weather returning to the south and although it may be frosty at first temperatures quite likely rising.. Saturday 10th.. Sunday 11th.. 12th..

Obviously very impressive unusual temperatures for March yesterday for some but for today too, ironically the day I said on friday that was more likely to be cooler now it may be the warmest day of this short warm spell for a few, with a local very warm maximum of 25c a possibility, close to the temperature record for March.. but temperatures of 23c and 24c will be reached locally for a few places of England. Gfs.. Looking further ahead to next week high pressure is likely to be positioned to the northwest and then west of the uk for most of the time with northerly winds fairly likely spreading down to most or all areas on monday, colder than average for the first half of the week with showers, probably preceded by a cold front moving south on sunday night with rain at first then perhaps sleet or snow just before it clears in the north, showers then probably falling as sleet and snow in the north to lower levels .. a few of these also likely to contain hail with the chance of some thunderstorms developing. Upper air temperatures.. Freezing level.. Overview.. For Wales, central, southern and eastern parts of England after the likely cold front perhaps clears the south early monday, showers probably more of a mix of rain and snow at times on lower ground with snow possible on high ground, but the potential although less likely is for snow to fall to lower levels in some places, hail again may fall in some of the showers along with the possible development of a few thunderstorms. By tuesday showers potentially more of sleet and rain here. By midweek the cold air possibly becoming more moderated and snow falling back on higher ground in the north with temperatures closer to average, perhaps still below for some.. although there also appears to be the chance of a recurrent cold northerly wind such as the Gfs update is showing. Probably staying unsettled though towards the end of next week with low pressure over the uk or close by later in the week before the weekend, temperatures around average but possibly below for some. Looking further than this to next weekend 10-11th April so output may change, though this scenario may end up being fairly close, and high pressure to the southwest of the uk possibly moving northeast into southern parts with drier weather returning, temperatures perhaps rising in the south too. Gefs ensemble update from 6pm yesterday as it hasn't updated yet..

Took these photos a few hours ago during a walk.

Hi I remember snow falling in berkshire one morning I think it was around the 6th april 2008, didn't last long though but I think there was a patchy covering on the fields.. I think there was a lengthier more widespread covering in some other places. Anyway the warmth from tomorrow lasting into wednesday too.. a maximum temperature most likely reaching a warm 22c or 23c locally on tuesday but possibly wednesday too, fairly widely for most of England temperatures close to 20c.. possibly for parts of Wales too. Upper air temperatures.. Then mostly dry weather with colder air already in the north moving south across most areas during thursday, quite a lot cooler for central parts of England in particular with frosts likely in some places here northwards on thursday and friday night. Thursday.. Friday.. The weekend will probably be mainly dry, high pressure centred just to the northwest of the UK temperatures probably remaining similar to thursday and friday. Unlike before, I'll continue posting updates through the rest of spring and also summer too, with hopefully a continuation of variable, interesting but not too disruptive weather for all to come.

Yes it is likely to become quite warm for southern and eastern parts on monday and tuesday Upto 16-19c on monday and most likely 20-21c on tuesday for some parts but 22-23c is a possibility locally.. The temperature gradient on this chart looks exaggerated over England and Wales, and would seem as though around 30c is potentially being reached and ofcourse this is a similar colour gradient to how most models have at around that temperature. Some very high rainfall totals likely for western Scotland over the weekend likely lasting at times through Monday but then possibly into tuesday, spells of rain moving up and down similar areas. Over 200mm is a possibility as for example the Icon shows.. though more widely in this area 100-150mm is very likely in a few places.. northern wales and more especially northern England potentially seeing upto around 80mm. The ecmwf may be showing higher than likely temperatures for wednesday, temperatures below 20c 15-18c seems more likely although the Ecmwf may be correct with wednesday.

Morning.. Much colder upper air temperatures moving southeast across the country on friday.. frequent showers for the north and west, there is the small chance of isolated thunderstorms, if these do occur they will probably most likely be for northern Ireland and Scotland.. the showers will probably fall as sleet and snow to some lower levels of Scotland at times, showers may also fall as sleet and snow on high ground of northern England and northern Ireland too.. the chance of hail in a few of these. Upper air temperatures.. Likely to be wetter than initially thought for southern parts of England, this largely from a weather front set to move through England and Wales during friday which may be squally, a short period of heavy rain which may give 5-10mm in 2-3 hours in a few places with strong gusty winds, developments along this front probably slowing the clearance until friday evening for eastern England. Icon.. Still likely becoming generally drier for southern England during the weekend although with the exception of some possible patchy rain most likely on sunday from a frontal system moving west to east in northern areas with snow on higher ground of Scotland in this and from showers also very windy in the north too. Overview.. Temperatures.. Saturday.. Sunday.. First half of next week remaining unsettled in the north, temperatures likely to rise further for southern parts of England and Wales possibly central areas too, 14-16c likely for some parts of eastern and southeastern England. Although less likely.. temperatures may be higher than this with a chance of 17-19c. Monday.. Tuesday.. Later on next week wednesday-friday there is the chance of unsettled weather returning south to all again with a chance of wintry weather for some and low pressure near or over the country... Although it's probably more likely to become drier for most with colder weather moving south after tuesday or wednesday with higher pressure close by or over the uk. Northerly winds may feature for a time during this transition.. then perhaps turning more unsettled by next weekend but that's far out.

Evening For most it's been settled and mostly dry the last few days ofcourse but a change to unsettled weather by wednesday next week. The first half of next week will be dry for most especially the south but it will be breezier in the north as high pressure moves south allowing westerly winds which will be slightly milder back in to southern parts.. then occasional bands of rain from wednesday next week mostly in the north, rainfall totals quite low though generally and in some parts of the south very little is likely. Behind any frontal systems, showers mainly in the north but sunshine too, it's also likely to become cold enough for snow on higher ground of Scotland at times later in the week most likely between thursday and saturday, sleet and snow may fall on high ground of northern Ireland and northern England too at times though less chance of this.. Generally windy aswell mainly in northern areas, much sunnier than recently in parts of the south. Quite likely temperatures rise more in the south next weekend with settled and dry weather possibly returning though probably remaining unsettled in the north and with much colder temperatures moving into the north atlantic then the chance of faster developing low pressure systems which will likely move in a northeasterly direction just to the northwest of the uk so the possibility of very windy conditions most likely for Scotland.

The unsettled weather continues especially so tonight and tomorrow as another low moves through England and Wales, the low more of a trough at first before becoming a closed area of low pressure as it moves across the country into the north sea in an east to east southeasterly trajectory with the central pressure dropping to probably around 976-977mb. Strong winds developing for Wales and most of England tonight although probably less strong in most areas compared with yesterday. Gusting to 35-45mph widely and more along parts of the coast and during this evening in the far southwest of England. A slight tightening of the isobars probably occuring for eastern England, east anglia tomorrow morning possibly increasing the winds slightly more to 50mph at times for an hour or 2 in a few places. Gfs.. Once this clears gradually turning drier through sunday and monday. Next week same outlook an area of high pressure largely building and moving north in western areas and remaining through most of the week, a northeasterly wind likely by tuesday or wednesday for eastern and southern parts of England which will be quite cold and possibly bringing a few wintry showers by thursday which on a side note is actually my 22nd birthday although whether there is any precipitation in the south depends on the position of the high and rain is more likely if any does make it in, it will still be mostly dry though, mostly dry for Scotland, northern Ireland and northern England with sunshine at times though the chance of low cloud and possible mist and fog for a few. High pressure centred to the west towards Ireland for much of the time monday-friday next week, mildest for western and northwestern areas with frosts probably more for southern and eastern areas. Largely dry conditions for many likely into next weekend too although possibly turning breezier in the north with milder air returning southwards to all including southern areas.

Morning One more look at the approaching low pressure system for tonight bringing quite a stormy night for some. GFS.. GEM.. The wind on the southern side of the storm gradually weakening which my post on sunday mentioned as it crosses the country, the strongest swathe of winds and the low pressure centre separate to an extent with what was the centre moving away to the north, the noticeable bend in the isobars below it possibly redeveloping into another closed circulation as it moves into the north sea tomorrow morning. We have a very strong jetstream 150-175mph moving through England and Wales tonight. Severe gales are likely to develop in parts of the irish sea with winds gusting to around 65-75mph. quite stormy widely for England and Wales with gales for some.. The expected wind gusts haven't really changed since my post on Sunday morning winds reaching 50-60mph quite widely inland, but slightly more than this is possible for a few parts, particularly for Wales, the Midlands and east Anglia too where in these areas there is a reasonable chance of wind gusts upto around 65mph in a few inland areas for a time during the early hours of tomorrow morning where the isobars on the pressure chart are closest together.. for the mountains of Wales gusts may reach over 80mph. During friday night and through saturday a low pressure system moving east or southeast bringing strong winds back into southern and southwestern England and Wales, gales may develop again around the coast and another area of rain some of it wintry possibly on high ground of central and northern areas. Early next week high pressure moving north to the southwest of the uk into especially western parts of England and Wales bringing settled mostly dry weather after monday. It is also now likely to become drier and more settled for Scotland and northern Ireland too, winds lighter with little rain here. A change though in the temperatures through the first half of the week with the week likely starting off quite cold at first before the high pressure system moves more over the top of the country quite likely to become milder for Scotland and northern Ireland but colder conditions likely further southeast with frosts.

The outlook for next weekend still remains an unsettled one with showers some perhaps wintry in the north on Saturday before it possibly becomes slightly milder by Sunday and a chance of a longer spell of rain, windy too. GFS.. GEM.. For the first half of next week upto wednesday at least and apart from possible initial rain in places on monday, higher pressure likely moving north from the south into at least central,southern England and Wales with the unsettled weather most likely becoming confined to Scotland and possibly northern Ireland by tuesday and wednesday with the continued chance of rain at times aswell as the potential for strong winds here. areas further south especially southern parts of England and Wales will likely become mostly settled. It probably also becomes milder for most or all.

Morning Just a quick update on the now likely storm for wednesday night into thursday morning. it's likely the storm will develop quickly out in the atlantic with wind gusts of 80-90mph on the southern and/or southwestern quadrant.. before these lessoning as it approaches the UK. Here's the Gfs, Gem and Ecmwf.. Gfs.. Gem.. Ecmwf.. The low pressure system moves quite quickly northeast as it crosses the country with the centre probably moving over Scotland and the strongest winds to the south through Ireland into England and Wales, although a little uncertainty with the exact track. winds becoming very strong with gusts of 50-60mph probable quite widely inland, with 60-75mph for some parts of the west and southwestern coasts of England and Wales. Icon as an example.. As much as 50-80mm of rainfall accumulating on the hills of Wales, northwest England and western Scotland too altogether from late Tuesday/midday thursday.