Jordan S

ANYWEATHER Given that the Ecmwf has kept to its southerly track keeping rain away from southern England and Wales on Sunday in today’s afternoon output, I would not want to disagree with what you are saying. It’s a little more uncertain the track now that’s for sure. Should all come to one final solution by tomorrow morning and we’ll see what it shows.

Gfs showed a big adjustment to Sundays low pressure system at short timeframe this morning with the orientation and location over the North Atlantic, has brought the low slightly north as expected so Sunday is looking wet again for many southern areas of England and Wales, hill snow for Wales likely. Not a certainty and could remain to our south but unlikely I think. previous update.. This morning’s.. The persistence of the rain and orientation of the fronts over southern UK on this Gfs update reminds me somewhat of storm Alex a few years ago October 1st 2020 I think, though unlikely to be anywhere near as wet as during that system. Rainfall totals look to be around 10-20mm widely, locally a bit more, but a small chance of around 50mm widely and around 80mm locally, local snow accumulation on hills of Wales a possibility. Beyond this once again taking a look at last couple days of Feb.. along with wordy weather ramble below 1. less of a milder and drier interlude possibility in south with what I previously mentioned. 2. Winds tending to be more variable than first thought. 3. Slower transition to brief westerlies than thought may be the case in previous post. Beyond.. Outlook for very early days of March mostly hasn’t changed though in terms of the weather conditions the UK and northwestern Europe will probably experience, (relatively cold and wet at times with snow on hills over northern UK possible) but synoptically a lot may have for 1st-3rd march, a sluggish moving series of low pressure systems surrounding northwest Europe and UK looks to be the genuine consensus atm with wind direction potentially very variable for a time with an easterly component but switching west/northwest regardless a few days into March with heights to our west and northwest likely more prevalent than average keeping lows on a more southerly track compared to average, this last part similar to last outlook post. My previous post stating along the lines of a more likely than not transition to drier and much milder weather for southern and southeastern areas temporarily towards end of first week of March curtesy of southerly tracking lows stagnating over mid Atlantic with heights building to south and southeast, still could take place, I don’t think the scenario likelihood has dropped enough for me to not be as confident of this as a possibility but the additional possibility is also there for the slow moving areas of high and low pressure systems that are expected, to possibly align themselves in a way that keeps not only less mild conditions over the UK throughout the whole of early March and very unsettled conditions in western and northern areas, but possibly very wet in the south too, with exceptionally wet weather over parts of northwest Europe a possibility, with the tendency for weather fronts to get stuck over northwest/west Europe interspersed with heavy showers in intermittent northwest airstreams. Either scenario seems plausible atm, whether the wettest conditions would efffect UK or areas to our south remains to be seen but a lengthy dry high pressure dominated period showing no sign of returning before mid March, if this changes you can be sure I’ll mention it, although there will be drier interludes obviously and in early March the direct sunlight without wind can have a fairly warm feel to it, so hopefully some decent sunny spells either side of rain bearing fronts, showers, wintry showers (north). Will update again in a week or two with a recap of how outlook went. Take care.

A fairly quick post from me today, just explaining this low expected to make an appearance in the vicinity of the UK this weekend, it’s interesting how consistent GFS is with this southerly tracking low pressure system raising an eyebrow with a low probability of mainly high ground snowfall over central and southern areas of England for this weekend. Midnight output.. This mornings output.. The system barely effects the UK and is across France with this output, while the upper air temperatures don’t look low enough for snow generally away from much higher ground here.. the lowering heights, it being after sunset and precipitation intensity being high shown as brighter greens/yellows over parts of France on the northern flank with a northerly element to the winds away from the strong winds on the lows southern flank, makes a big difference and would bring the freezing level much lower than areas of lighter precipitation around it which don’t trigger the evaporative cooling process to such a degree, less wind aswell means less mixing of milder upper air temperatures to the south and would bring temporary low level snowfall and limited significant high ground accumulated snowfall, why am I mentioning this if it’s over France? Because some models showing heavy wintry precipitation moving over southern areas from the low, so it’s easy to envisage that the same/similar scenario would play over southern UK (limited temporary significant accumulation on high ground such as Chilterns/Cotswolds) for example with temporary low level snowfall with patchy slight accumulation to areas away from major cities ie London with strong winds around the south and southwest coast of England. Though a thaw would take place once the precipitation clears as no deep cold around for example. The track of the low obviously in question and that scenario although synoptically being shown at times, is unlikely but was interesting to point out. The Ecmwf output for the low is more realistic. Low sweeping southeast over central and southern areas next weekend bringing a spell of rain, perhaps fairly heavy in places and possibility a bit of local hill snow in a few spots, then exiting into France. Both Gfs and Ecmwf synoptically similar especially being 6 days out but details much different as you would expect. Another low swings south east too afterwards.

Afternoon I suppose not too much to add as the outlook looks largely the same as said previously but I will add a few details, I want to focus on this low pressure system between Wednesday and Friday first of all, bit of uncertainty to the timing of the low pressure system but could give snowfall to levels down to 150-200 metres or so on the northern/northwest flank of the precipitation for a time as it travels northeast over northern parts, location yet to be determined near the time and this isn’t a certainty, in any particularly heavy bursts of precipitation, snowfall could creep down closer to 120-150 meters, but any accumulation reserved for ground above these values for the most part and unlikely to be significant away from the Scottish mountains if this scenario plays out with rain for the majority even here. Elsewhere heavy rainfall sweeping east/northeast with blustery wintry showers following into the northwest on Thursday/Friday, though rain around coasts and mostly rain away from high ground in the north, small chance of weak thunderstorms, precipitation entirely as rain in the south at first though showers by next weekend could turn wintry over some hills of Wales and southwest England in heavy showers. Driest weather for eastern Scotland, far Eastern England and southeastern England upto next weekend, though some rain here too on occasion especially by next weekend as another low pressure system sweeps across parts of the UK. Gfs as an example.. Temperatures average to slightly below average in places for this period upto end of next weekend. We probably see a relaxation of the northwesterly beyond next weekend especially by the 27th as the high to our southwest moves closer to the southwest temporarily as hinted in previous couple of posts though this expected a couple days later, so should see slightly less unsettled conditions in the south for a time and a bit milder here, temperatures look like remaining around average or a little below in the north though but less so than the days preceding it with winds more westerly across the UK as a whole later 27th - 1sr March. Take more more note of the high in the chart below, than wind direction as it seems a little off in accuracy for this time period in regards to that. Into first few days of March though and we could see a brief return to northwest winds as high amplification to our west strengthens, though a link up to Greenland from the mid Atlantic high at this stage is unlikely but not to be ruled out entirely. Temperatures may trend slightly below normal briefly for all with unsettled conditions widespread once again, relatively cold and cyclonic to end the month and beginning of March sums it up generally even with the relaxation of the colder pattern if it does occur. But on balance I think this will be brief, before looking slightly further into the first week of March and after a likely cyclonic and relatively cold first couple of days for all, patterns are liable to stagnate even more in the mid Atlantic after the preceding stronger jet stream of late February, weak high pressure may form over Greenland and this should keep lows on a more southerly track but with heights increasing to our south/southeast as well later in the first week of March there’s an increasing chance of very mild or even fairly warm conditions moving into southern and eastern areas temporarily, partly driven by areas of unsettled weather moving steadily into western areas drawing up southerly winds, possibly giving the first 20c of the meteorological spring in the south and east of England along with drier though not completely dry conditions for these areas and overall staying very unsettled in the west and north, temperatures around average by then in the north. This could change as the reliability of models and my posts admittedly have tanked somewhat in some aspects of forecasts but I’ve got much more confidence with this outlook for early March than has been the case for a couple of weeks. Will post another update on Wednesday regardless of any changes between now and then on the outlook but I suspect not much change will take place in these few days.

I may aswell show these charts today as the weekend is a few days away. Strong signal showing visually now for rather cold and unsettled conditions from northwesterlies towards end of February. Very low heights to note on this afternoon’s Gfs, partly explains the lower level snowfall indicated by it for the same time over a few various areas. Though snowfall to that extent and especially further south unlikely of course at that time. As you can see from these charts below, snow risk increases after midweek in the north then further south by next weekend, though the risk itself in the south is low as expected, these are primarily indicative of mostly high ground wintry precipitation Wednesday to Friday, though the risk of heavy wintry precipitation (primarily in form of showers afterwards) increasing slightly for some southern and central parts of England too by next weekend. increasing risk of those northwesterly gales mentioned in my previous post. Especially southwest and western areas Wednesday-Thursday next week, reading between the meteorological lines so to speak this indicates clearly a low such as Gfs 12oclock update makes an increasing likelihood of appearing into the southwest with potential snowfall along north/northeast boundary lows east/northeast, location of that is uncertain though for now and mainly high ground, though I wouldn’t rule out low level snow on the boundary with high intensity to the precipitation, the gales I mentioned above being especially more likely along western and southwestern coasts, though perhaps further northeast slightly too come the time, depending on exact intensity of the trough over and to our east by this time. Certainly an interesting evolution ahead for last week to 10days of February.

Purely from an observation point of view than a forecast in regards to this low below but a rather St Jude (2013) looking storm system showing this evening on Gfs, not on par with intensity as the low exits the UK though and it’s not at time scale to take too literally but shows the lows track and timeframe itself ties in with recent updates on potential snow on northern flanks of systems moving through within a northwest airstream as we head towards months end, though the signal for heights over Greenland and Iceland have weakened so that’s the only real difference. The Synoptics Gfs showing this evening towards end of February is not unexpected, rather was expected even if conditions will probably be slightly less amplified come the week itself, the low itself above unlikely to be there on the day shown ofcourse, anyway from a lover of most weather types, plenty to be intrigued on for the second half of February with slight convective weather and snow still possibly being involved to some degree for the usual spots anyway later next week but that’s without significant frontal rainfall in the flow which would ofcourse be likely to bring snow levels down to where more are in a place to witness the wintry stuff, though probably not the south. All fast paced stuff like a skipping rope has been waved across the North Atlantic shaking the stagnant synoptics pattern up a bit so to speak. Will give a proper update by the weekend with a couple of different charts than the usual

A transition to more settled conditions widely look to still take place Friday/Saturday but a low and it’s associated weather fronts either delays or interrupts the dry process and could produce heavy slow moving frontal rain over some areas of the UK before fizzling out into next week.. Shortish summary.. Largely anticyclonic conditions likely developing for central,southern and eastern areas in particular for the first half of next week, slightly more unsettled weather encroaching western and possibly northwestern part’s as week goes on, especially for Ireland/Northern Ireland at first, not too dissimilar to previous outlook. End of next week onwards to near or end of February, reiterating my previous 2 updates to an extent but in a little more detail, but most likely scenario being moderate / strong northwesterly winds taking hold widely, especially for northwest UK bringing wintry showers, rain showers in south but also drier here more so than north generally, and near normal temperatures in the south at first with high pressure close to the southwest. This high or highs around the vicinity then look like amplifying to our west on occasion in the final few days of February, potentially bringing slightly colder than average temperatures in the south aswell with showers possibly turning wintry in south. Average to slightly colder than average in north throughout with air perhaps sourced from further to our north late on, Highest risk of persistent rainfall at the end of February being for southern and western areas as lows are more likely to take southerly tracks, this will raise snowfall risk on the northern boundary as the boundary meets the northwesterly flow, mainly on high ground though perhaps not exclusively so late on along with increased risk of northwesterly gales in places. Ofcourse this is a lot of detail for something that is 2 weeks away but reasonable confidence in these sort of conditions occurring.

The latest Ecmwf and Gem both show that with the right orientation to the high pressure over and to our east/northeast and jet stream pattern to our west, very cold air upper air temperatures that seemingly look distant before 8-9 days can quickly return west/southwest across the continent. The Gfs looks way to progressive and quick again with those lows moving through the UK and high disappearing to our northeast completely during the following week beginning 19th.. half way house similar to my post yesterday being more likely, steady progression to milder and unsettled conditions in the west southwest, but could raise snow potential slightly in the east late on in the week even if being drier here. Yes although the colder than average conditions that where possibly expected until recently look to be a distant memory and milder conditions generally more likely overall to see out February, I wouldn’t rule out a colder than average final few days of February at this stage even if currently less likely as there are hints of this being a possibility. What is more likely similar to what was hinted at by my post yesterday is for a colder northwest airstream for now and subsequent wintry shower risk in the north, high to our southwest, weak heights to Greenland/Iceland during final week or so of February, temperatures not far off normal for southern regions but it’s too far out for certainty on that evolution yet.

Here’s the increased snow chance I highlighted for this upcoming week Ah well, sometimes forecasts don’t go to plan on a more widespread scale but that’s the nature of weather of course. Anyway, going into more detail of what may happen for end of next week and beyond again but relatively quickly.. Not much more to add from my previous post on the outlook for next week other than emphasising the brief drier conditions that may develop more widely at the end of next week, over northern areas Thursday/Friday especially Scotland with wet conditions likely continuing for some southern and western regions at this time, then those drier conditions likely further south by Saturday with winds switching from the southwest/west to possibly then from the east/southeast with that higher pressure mentioned previously that moves over to our east/northeast along with that slightly colder air perhaps into eastern parts. Sunday 18th/ Monday 19th more unsettled conditions are more likely to move into Ireland and Northern Ireland, heralding a possible slow northeastwards progression of wet weather for some as the week beginning 19th February goes on, but most or all of the unsettled weather at the moment looking like being mainly in the west and south west through the first half of that week 19th/20th/21st with higher pressure again to our northeast perhaps keeping things drier further east and north for a time. With regards to what I’ve mentioned in a few posts with a likelihood of high pressure to our north/northwest as well through this period this still looks true to an extent but the emphasis on any possible snowfall along boundaries of weather fronts looks have shifted to later in the time period and to be for hills, mainly for Scotland if any weather fronts work that far north. Winds may blow from the northwest more widely later in the following week onwards towards the end of February though as heights lower to our immediate north and northwest (though staying relatively high close to Iceland/Greenland at times) and pressure more likely than not increasing and moving closer to our southwest around the 21st-26th February, this would increase the chance of more widespread wintry showers into northwestern areas. especially over high ground but drier conditions and slightly higher temperatures in the southwest, south and east of the country, though not particularly mild. Details may of course change somewhat as the time period moves closer, I expect that to be more likely to happen compared with normal, so expect adjustments to this as my updates go along, but I hope to have a steady forecast consistency in my posts once again soon. I will have another update posted early next week for anyone interested probably Tuesday time. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5035929

Here’s the increased snow chance I highlighted for this upcoming week Ah well, sometimes forecasts don’t go to plan on a more widespread scale but that’s the nature of weather of course. Anyway, going into more detail of what may happen for end of next week and beyond again but relatively quickly.. Not much more to add from my previous post on the outlook for next week other than emphasising the brief drier conditions that may develop more widely at the end of next week, over northern areas Thursday/Friday especially Scotland with wet conditions likely continuing for some southern and western regions at this time, then those drier conditions likely further south by Saturday with winds switching from the southwest/west to possibly then from the east/southeast with that higher pressure mentioned previously that moves over to our east/northeast along with that slightly colder air perhaps into eastern parts. Sunday 18th/ Monday 19th more unsettled conditions are more likely to move into Ireland and Northern Ireland, heralding a possible slow northeastwards progression of wet weather for some as the week beginning 19th February goes on, but most or all of the unsettled weather at the moment looking like being mainly in the west and south west through the first half of that week 19th/20th/21st with higher pressure again to our northeast perhaps keeping things drier further east and north for a time. With regards to what I’ve mentioned in a few posts with a likelihood of high pressure to our north/northwest as well through this period this still looks true to an extent but the emphasis on any possible snowfall along boundaries of weather fronts looks have shifted to later in the time period and to be for hills, mainly for Scotland if any weather fronts work that far north. Winds may blow from the northwest more widely later in the following week onwards towards the end of February though as heights lower to our immediate north and northwest (though staying relatively high close to Iceland/Greenland at times) and pressure more likely than not increasing and moving closer to our southwest around the 21st-26th February, this would increase the chance of more widespread wintry showers into northwestern areas. especially over high ground but drier conditions and slightly higher temperatures in the southwest, south and east of the country, though not particularly mild. Details may of course change somewhat as the time period moves closer, I expect that to be more likely to happen compared with normal, so expect adjustments to this as my updates go along, but I hope to have a steady forecast consistency in my posts once again soon. I will have another update posted early next week for anyone interested probably Tuesday time.

This will be a wordier post with less charts attached than I normally do but hopefully it doesn’t effect the quality of the post Looking at these two Gfs charts for the 21st February, yesterday evening’s Gfs should be closer to the mark in terms of the synoptic pattern in theory, with higher pressure to our north and east with low pressure systems stagnating over the North Atlantic, producing at first winds from a milder south/southwest direction though not exact by any means and a more southerly tracking series of lows is more likely by this period as will mention later on in this post later in the post.. Yesterday evening’s output for the 21st.. This morning’s output for the 21st.. I admit, I amongst a few others highlighted the significant chance of colder than average conditions for next week with increased snow risk up until just 3 or 4 days ago personally, that does not look to happen, was quite a change of events, the low pressure system effecting us today now being the main reason though obviously not the sole reason, it’s sudden projected path change for example and evolution in subsequent model output, being difficult to anticipate. Looking longer term, at the moment it looks as if it may of purely just delayed a colder pattern by a week or so, but not without a now less clear cut evolution to it as I will mention near the end of post.. Referring back to my previous post for next week for a second below.. the main change to it looks to be a more westerly element to winds across northern uk at the beginning- middle part of next week but the rest of the quoted sections still holding onto some accuracy, with slightly colder air hanging on over northern areas at first, but not from a southeast direction and low pressure systems and their associated milder air gradually making its way into southern and western areas of the UK though looking wetter earlier on here than previously anticipated, also temporary drier signal emerging for end of the working week next week more widely but probably very brief. Now if we refer back to the last section of my previous post mentioning the outlook for end of next week onwards.. it’s clear that its largely still the most likely way going forward, taking a look at admittedly but still mainly accurate yesterday’s NOAA 500mb height anomaly charts for the northern hemisphere for the same sort of period as an example and you can see the likelihood of the blocking to our north and northeast and low pressure gathering to our southwest.. but given the likely presence of high pressure around Spain, at the moment it looks as if it will probably largely prevent colder than average conditions over southern UK perhaps even milder than average in the far south and southwest and with low pressure systems likely to be sandwiched in between higher pressure developments to our north and that slow moving high to our south, and very similar to what my previous post said, it’s a recipe for some very unsettled conditions over southern and central areas, the battle ground snow scenario for central areas I mentioned in two of my previous posts would be the result of colder air making it’s way south and southwest over the north of the UK at the end of next week/ early the following week. Though what’s become evident to me is in this case the pattern does not look instantly liable to bring wintry conditions on the boundary with the first low pressure systems that move across us during this possible change to colder conditions from the north, it’s more likely going to be a case of lows behind the initial one or two that cross over central UK providing the highest risk for significant battle ground snow over central/northern areas. After this possible change to colder conditions over central and northern uk towards the end of February, I would say on balance it is more likely to turn very mild more widely by the beginning of March with drier conditions for southern and eastern areas. But more an educated guess at this stage.

Don Does seem that way doesn’t it? Does remind me of February 2019 some of the output, less confidence in my post than I typically do it has to be said, I wouldn’t rule out the Gfs pattern for next week just deem it too progressive.

Small changes in the short term have changed the synoptic evolution somewhat for next week, no surprise to anyone at this stage, winds from a more southerly quarter bringing rising temperatures into the south and southwest and an increasing risk of low pressures gradually moving into the southwest and west of England as the week progresses next week seems more likely now, but higher pressure still looks to build to our northeast then northwest at this stage. If blocking to our northwest does deliver more significant cold to the UK, it may well be the end of next week or beyond, contrary to my previous updates. I think the Gfs is too progressive with the lows and subsequent milder temperatures everywhere by early next week even if it has done well per say recently. Its all very messy but the north should atleast cling onto slightly colder air first half of next week from the east or southeast though fairly dry at the moment, high pressure to our northwest beyond though remains more probable for now, allowing potential very unsettled conditions into the south, battleground snow for central areas and a possible return to cold conditions enough for wintry precipitation for northern areas, last part similar to my post last night.

Was gonna do an update tomorrow/Wednesday but will just post this instead now, Gfs attempts to move high pressure drifting over us next weekend, towards Scandinavia which is what I would expect given the expected outcome around mid month, although on this run it “fails” very quickly but full on mild southwesterlies across the UK are not likely for next week especially late on even when rogue Gfs runs suddenly suggest so. That doesn’t mean it’s wrong ofcourse, just highly unlikely at the moment in my view, I understand I’m in the minority now suggesting this. There is still a higher chance than not for colder and blocked synoptics to our northwest/east to favour uk cold eventually next week, but it really now comes to exact days being pushed back slightly to 14-15th onwards. With less cold conditions possibly having an influence on Monday and Tuesday in the south and southwest. You have heights generally transferring towards our north/northwest afterwards. It has to be said, cold air enough to produce snow on southern hills and lower ground in central areas in any showers during the weekend is now very unlikely with low pressure and milder air in the south more influential than previously thought. For the middle part of next week still looks potentially cold enough for snow for a few but it doesn’t look as unstable especially over northern areas next week as originally thought for now, neither quite as cold, some places may indeed start the week dry with the threat of milder temperatures in the far southwest on Monday. Also in regards to where high pressure sits ie Scandinavia or Greenland.. and what I hinted at just above thi part of the post, pressure now looks more likely towards Greenland than over Scandinavia later next week, this would allow wetter conditions into the south with increased battleground scenario snowfall in central area’s slightly after mid month, but the depth of cold open to some question this far out as expected especially with the initial delay in colder conditions. In the short term rain potentially causing flooding problems in the south with heavy and persistent rain periodically from late tomorrow to Friday, possibly over 2 inches for some and snow causing temporary problems in northern parts of wales, north England, then high parts of Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland with maximums of 20-30cm likely on the highest grounds in worst effected parts rather repeated from previous outlook for the Thursday snow I know. Goodnight all and enjoy whatever snow you get further north on Thursday/Friday. Will do another lengthy update on Thursday evening.

Seems to be too much “what happened to the blocking that people said would happen” sort of posts, colder outlook is still favoured, just the exact evolution and timeframe is now in question is all and yes it may be as unclear as previously thought, Gfs especially varied with its output, but it seems to always make a meal out of sliding lows under weak blocks to our northwest. North midlands, north wales northwards still most likely to see a period of snow than further south. Will give an update tomorrow or Wednesday

The Icon is certainly an interesting update this morning for Thursday/Fridays low and subsequent high migration into next weekend and beyond, that last night Gfs seems very unlikely. I wouldn’t take the snow or the Icon output for the weekend into next week too literally as it could be quite dry at times, the model overview exaggerates the snow to some extent to what the model is truly showing but does show potential wintry precipitation, the air certainly likely to be cold enough for snow for especially central/northern areas with any precipitation about. And clearly a milder outcome isn’t likely at all still atm.

As promised here’s an update, if you live across northern England, southern Scotland and by Friday/ Saturday parts of the north Midlands and north Wales then I’d keep a close eye on the snow for later this week, potential is there and rather high of significance snowfall and accumulations on high ground in parts of Scotland and northern England in particular, but higher parts of Northern Ireland too at risk of snowfall from this potent frontal system towards the end of this upcoming week. Plenty of moisture coming into the south into this weather front will keep the longevity of it going, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if 30-40cm accumulates on the higher hills in the worst effected area, snow not just falling on hills though, likely at times falling to lower levels too in most of the areas listed above excluding the midlands and Wales at first anyway, possibly producing several cm’s of snow in places with a cold easterly/northeasterly wind giving the risk of blizzards over the Pennines. For southern England and south Wales looks very wet at times with strong winds as this synoptic pattern change takes place, by the weekend particularly Sunday, most or all of us will be in colder air with precipitation mainly in the form of showers later in the weekend largely falling as sleet and snow in northern and central areas, hills in the south. Just a quick look at before Thursdays-Saturdays, snow events, an active frontal system with possible hill snow on its northern edge over northern areas will be across southern areas later Tuesday into Wednesday bringing heavier rain and strong winds perhaps gales along the coasts, rain could linger in the far southwest and south as Thursdays low and associated fronts move into the southwest. I’m really pleased with how my outlooks have highlighted this weeks and next weeks change to colder and potentially snowier conditions, of course others have indeed alluded to it too but for now it all seems to be going to predictions thus far. gfs as a general example but doesn’t mean it will exactly look like this.. There is the small possibility that the outlook changes significantly to a milder outlook and makes me look like a mug ️ but that’s unlikely.. I hope To all you lovely lot, I do hope you get the snow you desire, I like to be non biased, but in this case a cold outlook is the main focal point as most routes and indications point to a fairly significant though not exceptional colder spell from the 12th with potential for snow in any precipitation, this on balance looks like it will be the most wintry week to 10 days of the winter from Thursday onwards generally, though that isn’t saying much. Will probably give another update on Wednesday so look out for that one if you wish.

CoventryWeather I think where the Ecmwf has the low and association weather fronts ie snow /rain boundary later next week is largely close to what we’ll see now.. noticed a few mentioning how models are struggling at just a few days out with the low, I suppose to an extent in terms of exact minute details to be expected really, but the trend is the same since yesterday and indeed to a few of us for quite a few days. Beyond that it still looks to turn colder for all, though perhaps not exceptionally so, but that wasn’t really on the cards. Certainly potentially cold enough for snow in most places in the following week beginning 12th as said previously but it looks to be quite a dry set up so mainly in the form of showers that do form to our north/east. We shall see, will do a more lengthy update on snow potential later this week either later this evening or tomorrow I think.

Looks like the Icon is just a slower evolution to cold in the south anyway for later next week but most models agree on potential significant snow over some parts of northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland Wednesday/Thursday and Friday mostly in line with thoughts several days ago, though I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Midlands and north Wales come into play by Friday next week with snow risk from the fronts parked over the country by Friday/Saturday, the Icon and other models are all providing realistic outcomes as to how the cold air will progress south later next week, so if you want the low later next week to clear away and not “scupper” cold chances per say, then although it does look set to move into central and southern areas i wouldn’t be too bothered as it does look to clear to our east or southeast either way by next weekend and bring the cold down with it. Not before it deepens over the UK possibly substantially first though with strong winds in the north from an easterly quadrant but as it’s a week away there’s the risk of changes to the low and it’s fronts and location, but I wouldn’t of thought by much.

@E17boy no problem yes second week of February/ mid month does hold more interest for people who prefer the cold and snowier variety of weather. Also as the Gfs currently shows, there’s still the possibility that my previous post mentioning colder conditions spreading south earlier next week onwards with snow for Scotland and the risk in any precipitation for hills of northern England could in fact take place still, but my most recent post just highlighting it being a bit less likely until mid week onwards next week seeming more plausible for now. Before any snow chances in the south, there will probably be rain and wind taking place first in the preceding few days regardless, but the pieces look to somewhat fall together for a week or so colder spell more widely afterwards, just GFS probably being too quick in the evolution next week particularly with the blocking to our north as evident in the timescale I’ve mentioned for the change in the previous post which is beyond next week, along with the ensembles not showing a strong Gfs type signal for the same time as it is showing now, beyond that most certainly looking potentially wintry.

It was clearly far wetter over northwestern parts of England and Wales for yesterday than my post alluded to a few days ago,certainly some substantial totals in some places here, it is a drier outlook for these areas though for the rest of the week, though not necessarily entirely dry. I think the main changes to note for next week compared with previous outlook is any slightly colder weather in the north with potential wintry showers over Scotland at the end of this week seeming less likely and now not likely to last into early next week going by my previous outlook onwards with milder air moving steadily back across the uk early next week stopping any southward progression also a slight change being higher pressure remains more dominant over central and southern areas so the change to unsettled and colder conditions especially here being delayed for the most part until at least midweek next week or just after but this is a few days away so this isn’t a certainty but more likely, Gfs not entirely “agreeing” with this section of my post obviously. But from the middle of next week so Wednesday/Thursday time it does look like high pressure will retreat south and low pressure will probably return to most or all with those colder temperatures and the risk of snow for Scotland and high ground of northern England, so overall not a huge change with a delay of a few days. Likely becoming very windy for some later next week with the the potential for gales and also heavier rain to spread across the country obviously increasingly likely to fall as snow in a few northern areas and rain further south elsewhere spreading down the country, even for southern areas the risk of hill snow increases by next weekend though as lows may take more southerly tracks. Will update nearer the time if needed. During the following week beginning 12th February Atlantic low pressure systems look likely to slow down progress east and southeast with higher pressure more likely than average to build either to our northwest or east/northeast bringing some colder air slowly into the north and east increasing the risk of snow in the form of showers more generally especially over northern areas but not exclusively so and they may fall to low levels in places too, will have to see how things develop nearer the time.

Certainly been a stormy weekend in the northern and western isles of Scotland, particularly today with higher gusts than anticipated from my previous post for today with gusts peaking up to a very strong and problematic 70-75mph, certainly very wild! Looking at mid week once again and still looking like being very windy Wednesday for the same areas mentioned above but with the small potential for even stronger winds, severe gales with gusts most likely reaching a very strong and potentially disruptive 65-75mph once again but if the storm develops per some particularly nasty ensemble members, then from that one or two locations could record extremely strong and potentially damaging winds, (storm force winds) with gusts up to 85mph.. those highest gusts are more likely for the northern isles as this rapidly developing storm moves to our northeast accompanied by heavy and possibly squally rain which will work its way slowly southwards over parts of the UK before weakening further south with the higher pressure in place, certainly something to watch out for, for the few that live in these parts. Outlook beyond that largely unchanged to me since previous post on Thursday. Will update if anything changes to a larger than small degree in what I’ve covered for the outlook.

A much quieter period of weather for many compared with recently, Staying fairly unsettled still though for Scotland in particular though not as much as recently over the next few days with some very windy weather over the weekend for the western isles and northern isles of Scotland, gales with gusts to 50-60mph possible later tomorrow into Saturday as well as on Sunday with showers from the west then southwest into these areas. Whereas further south over England and Wales and on the whole much drier and calmer, and this looks to be the case for much of next week, but some mostly lighter rain on occasion in places more likely to be in a few areas in the west possibly from a disturbance or weakening low pressure and perhaps becoming absorbed within higher pressure early next week. Best chance of lengthy dry and at times sunnier weather being in eastern and southeastern areas of England. By around midweek next week, winds becoming very strong over western isles and northern isles once again though gusts could reach 70mph for a time as a developing low pressure system travels northeast to our north. Temperatures probably above average at times further south for the first half of next week, though perhaps trending slightly colder later next week in the north with wintry showers for Scotland.. Into the following week and more unsettled conditions look more likely to return to most or all with lowering temperatures with the risk of more significant snow returning to Scotland and possibly higher ground in northern England.

A notch down in wind speeds *generally* then on Isha further south over southern and southeast England inland this evening and overnight with 35-45mph but isolated 50-55mph possible though.. particularly for the far southeast of England so although not yellow warnings for these areas it will still be very windy so keep that in mind. Midlands look to see maximum’s gusts reaching 50-55mph at times this evening and particularly overnight, so a few branches could come down especially weakened ones from storm Isha. North Wales and northern England looks like gusts could reach up to 65mph in some exposed inland areas and coastal, so certainly potential for more damage and disruption here but not likely to be as bad as Sunday night for most here with trees and fences mainly effected in terms of any damage in these areas, but for Northern Ireland and particularly Scotland although winds not as strong expected generally.. gusts of 60-70mph in places and 70-80mph in exposure for Scotland is certainly enough to cause significant damage to trees for example especially being weakened by Isha and causing additional damage to some buildings too for a few in these areas. Another evening and night to stay indoors in the worst effected areas

A bit of an update and last one from me on this storm, though not much has changed since my post on Tuesday. This is not your run of the mill storm if you live inland over England and Wales although at the same time, not exceptional. It does resemble storm Ciara, with one of the similarities being the uncertain strength of winds over western Scotland although they probably will receive very strong winds at some point tomorrow night into Monday. 9th February 2020.. Tomorrow/ Monday morning Gusts will likely peak up to around a damaging 75mph inland for parts of Wales and northern England, it’s largely what I’ve already said so apologies for being a broken record! For people unsure of what to possibly expect with those speeds, this could cause some locally significant damage to weaker temporary structures, significant damage to fences, damage to stronger and more sturdy trees with some being blown down and minor damage to homes directly impacted by such speeds which mainly consists of tile roofs (blowing some tiles off) and potential damage to gutters and siding which are exposed to those winds along with locally longer term power cuts of up to a few hours.. Extremely strong winds for parts of the west coast of Wales,northern England with gusts up to 85mph possible in one or two locations, these could effect western Scotland too late Sunday/ early Monday morning but less certain. 55-65mph for most of the rest of England tomorrow evening and overnight into Monday morning causing some local tree damage in places, perhaps blowing a few weaker trees down. Maybe a few roof tiles exposed to those actual speeds being dislodged or blown off with one or two places seeing power flickering on and off with gusts that exceed 60mph. Important to note, Isolated wind gusts of 70mph is possible in one or two inland spots over central England towards and around midnight tomorrow night, possibly eastern England too, I think the Icon and Arpege are over doing things ever so slightly for maximum gusts shown over slices of central/eastern England England that show 72/73mph but Icon overall having a better and more accurate handle on those fierce gusts over west Wales and northern England, so i suppose more faith can be put into this model compared with Arpege.. with maximum isolated gusts of 70mph if they where to occur you’re talking of an increased number of trees at risk of being damaged or blown down along with short term power cuts for some, with minor damage to buildings and homes exposed to those wind speeds which mainly consist of increased number of tiles potentially being dislodged/ blown off. The longevity of these wind gust speeds will ofcourse increase the likelihood of the above occurring. This all accompanied at times by heavy rain and squally conditions. I suppose sometimes it’s useful to put perspective on what wind gusts values will likely do as I’m sure some will imagine they are strong but not know what to expect with particular strengths.. hopefully it’s of some use. All in all a stormy several hours tomorrow evening/night for the majority of the uk with the widespread nature of such speeds being quite uncommon. With another spell of damaging winds in some areas for Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly northern England midweek next week but less so compared with tomorrow night.