Jordan S

Safe to say that almost all locations across the UK south of northern Scotland will have wind gusts of between 50-65mph for several hours from later Sunday into early Monday, higher gusts than this ofcourse along parts of the coasts of west Wales and northwest England and possibly Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland.. no need for any more detail (except for far southeast England) on wind gusts as covered that in previous post.. but a prolonged spell of gales for many and more damage likely to be caused in parts of southeast England compared with the storm a couple of weeks ago even with similar strength gusts, due to the longevity. Can see why the met office have issued an amber for Kent and Sussex, gusts could even peak upto 65-75mph inland here and possibly as stated locally a tad more along that coastal stretch.. rather serious especially for these areas not so accustomed to such strong and likely damaging winds.

An increased chance of severe gales effecting the country then following on from my previous post, and as others have pointed out recently, a stormy day possible on Sunday and possibly into early Monday as we see a low pressure system rapidly intensify over the North Atlantic before moving northeast across the the uk, most weather models show the centre moving into Scotland, the location of the strongest of wind gusts seem to vary a bit each model run as is entirely expected at this range but the current UKMO, ECM and GFS runs seem realistic and close to what will happen on Sunday with a high likelihood of very strong winds widely for most or all of the UK, but it looks like particularly northern UK will bear the brunt contrary to my previous post highlighting southern and western areas at high risk for severe gales and heavy rain. breaking it down slightly with current interpretation of most likely realistic scenario.. Central/Southern UK turning very windy on Sunday with widespread 40-55mph gusts likely with some locally damaging gusts of 60-65mph possible even here.. more detail on what may increase the risk of those top gusts.. towards the end of post.. For northern areas especially Northern Ireland and parts of northern England and western Scotland, there’s an increasing likelihood of damaging and disruptive gusts quite widely, not just in exposure but inland too. Widely potentially damaging gusts inland of 65-75mph seems quite likely for many northern parts of England, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland, but some extremely strong gusts of 85-90mph look increasingly likely in a few coastal locations in these areas, if you where to put a percentage on the likelihood of this occurring then (40-60%) seems appropriate for a few coastal areas of western Scotland and perhaps western coastal parts of Northern Ireland. Heavy rain across many areas, a squally front looks likely to move southeast across England and Wales, and this is where the strongest winds for England and wales will reside, gusting up to 65mph possibly for a few inland, a wave may develop on this, slowing the fronts clearance from the south possibly causing localised flooding in places with upto an inch or two of rain for some. Thereafter another wet and windy spell for many later next week although less so than Sunday/Monday. For the last few days of January it looks to remain unsettled in the north with hill snow in the north at times, changeable in the south but some dry days here more often than northern areas as is usual, high pressure looks to centre further south than Gfs indicates I think, temperatures look to be slightly above normal for the most part but perhaps turning drier more widely along with temperatures falling once again at the end of January and beginning of February with high pressure over the uk or close by with increased frost and snow risk by early February.. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5014974

An increased chance of severe gales effecting the country then following on from my previous post, and as others have pointed out recently, a stormy day possible on Sunday and possibly into early Monday as we see a low pressure system rapidly intensify over the North Atlantic before moving northeast across the the uk, most weather models show the centre moving into Scotland, the location of the strongest of wind gusts seem to vary a bit each model run as is entirely expected at this range but the current UKMO, ECM and GFS runs seem realistic and close to what will happen on Sunday with a high likelihood of very strong winds widely for most or all of the UK, but it looks like particularly northern UK will bear the brunt contrary to my previous post highlighting southern and western areas at high risk for severe gales and heavy rain. breaking it down slightly with current interpretation of most likely realistic scenario.. Central/Southern UK turning very windy on Sunday with widespread 40-55mph gusts likely with some locally damaging gusts of 60-65mph possible even here.. more detail on what may increase the risk of those top gusts.. towards the end of post.. For northern areas especially Northern Ireland and parts of northern England and western Scotland, there’s an increasing likelihood of damaging and disruptive gusts quite widely, not just in exposure but inland too. Widely potentially damaging gusts inland of 65-75mph seems quite likely for many northern parts of England, Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland, but some extremely strong gusts of 85-90mph look increasingly likely in a few coastal locations in these areas, if you where to put a percentage on the likelihood of this occurring then (40-60%) seems appropriate for a few coastal areas of western Scotland and perhaps western coastal parts of Northern Ireland. Heavy rain across many areas, a squally front looks likely to move southeast across England and Wales, and this is where the strongest winds for England and wales will reside, gusting up to 65mph possibly for a few inland, a wave may develop on this, slowing the fronts clearance from the south possibly causing localised flooding in places with upto an inch or two of rain for some. Thereafter another wet and windy spell for many later next week although less so than Sunday/Monday. For the last few days of January it looks to remain unsettled in the north with hill snow in the north at times, changeable in the south but some dry days here more often than northern areas as is usual, high pressure looks to centre further south than Gfs indicates I think, temperatures look to be slightly above normal for the most part but perhaps turning drier more widely along with temperatures falling once again at the end of January and beginning of February with high pressure over the uk or close by with increased frost and snow risk by early February..

Wintry outlook then for next week with low temperatures, frost and some snow in places especially for northern areas and to low ground in some areas.. With a low pressure system moving close to or over the south of the uk towards the end of next week bringing the risk of significant and heavy snow into some southern areas, though most likely scenario takes it mostly over France and channel with light or moderate snow over far southern counties for short time. Frequent and sometimes heavy snow showers over some northern areas away from coasts, with one two disturbances likely to be the main culprit for these to form bringing more persistent sleet and snow at times, though not particularly widespread, very cold overnight in places especially ofcourse under snow cover, but some places will see crisp frosty and dry conditions prevailing from this week into much of next week. I think longer term post next week, looks more likely to be unsettled in the south and possibly west but generally slightly colder than average in the north with snow chance above normal for the north and east post 20th January as precipitation moves into these areas, but heavy rain returning to our south and west with gales or severe gales possible further west and south for England and Wales as potentially deep lows threaten to make inroads, high pressure over northern latitudes likely continuing on occasion to our north or northeast bringing drier than average weather to eastern and northern areas of England and Scotland and Northern Ireland at first after the 18th before the unsettled weather makes its way here too, the below charts give a general idea but I think could be slightly too progressive with lows around 21st but this could all change obviously.

Gfs aswell as Arpege do tend to overdo winds but not so much with these smaller lows that zip through, I find a good rule of thumb and what I tend to do with these sort of developing low pressure systems is look at the Arpege weather model and knock around 10mph off most or all values within the storms path and this will (usually) show a very accurate idea of wind gusts expected with these more rapidly tightening pressure gradients.. in this case Arpege shows inland gusts of 75-80mph over small parts of southwest England only. So following on what I said above we see reality this will be 65-70mph locally inland this afternoon over those areas, this potentially damaging to trees, dislodging tiles/ taking a few off in exposure to such winds and slight damage to siding on buildings including gutters. But these areas in the southwest may avoid the worst if the low develops just a few hours later but would mean higher winds further northeast… Arpege shows values close to 65mph for some of the Midlands and east Anglia inland, so in reality you would say 55mph and peaking 60mph though perhaps peaking 65mph for one or two inland locations, over central and eastern England, broadly what I said in previous post, as wind field expands and the low develops a tight pressure gradient on its southwest flank. Although there seems to be some divergence on exact strength so ofcourse could be slightly weaker or stronger overall but I think this is a close bet. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4991379

Gfs aswell as Arpege do tend to overdo winds but not so much with these smaller lows that zip through, I find a good rule of thumb and what I tend to do with these sort of developing low pressure systems is look at the Arpege weather model and knock around 10mph off most or all values within the storms path and this will (usually) show a very accurate idea of wind gusts expected with these more rapidly tightening pressure gradients.. in this case Arpege shows inland gusts of 75-80mph over small parts of southwest England only. So following on what I said above we see reality this will be 65-70mph locally inland this afternoon over those areas, this potentially damaging to trees, dislodging tiles/ taking a few off in exposure to such winds and slight damage to siding on buildings including gutters. But these areas in the southwest may avoid the worst if the low develops just a few hours later but would mean higher winds further northeast… Arpege shows values close to 65mph for some of the Midlands and east Anglia inland, so in reality you would say 55mph and peaking 60mph though perhaps peaking 65mph for one or two inland locations, over central and eastern England, broadly what I said in previous post, as wind field expands and the low develops a tight pressure gradient on its southwest flank. Although there seems to be some divergence on exact strength so ofcourse could be slightly weaker or stronger overall but I think this is a close bet.

In the shorter term, looking quite stormy for some parts of central, southern uk this afternoon and especially evening time as a developing low pressure system (perhaps being a named storm) moves swiftly northeast bringing heavy rain and of more note gales and severe gales even inland in some areas.. Wind gusts of 50-60mph likely developing fairly widely over parts of the southwest and perhaps parts of central and eastern England with 40-50mph very widespread elsewhere across far southern UK, the strongest winds from this low look to move across the Midlands and east Anglia tomorrow evening, bringing the potential of gusts in these areas of a fairly disruptive and possibly locally damaging 55-65mph quite widely inland for a couple of hours or so, isolated gusts of 70mph possible too. Certainly a very wild evening on the cards, perhaps uprooting a fair number of trees especially given the saturated soil..

I understand there has been slight disappointment from a few from some not so cold model outputs over the last few days, taking a look back to my last post Of course when a possible forecast looks like flopping completely according to model charts, even when I know that the overall signal is rather similar and backs up my post forecast, and have faith the models will “catch” up, it does still make you sweat slightly. A few things haven’t changed likelihood since my last post and that will be mentioned below.. There are 2 changes at least aswell to note in comparison to my previous post… What hasn’t changed… northerly component to the wind between 20-24th overall but overall northwesterly, wintry showers still likely for parts of the north for a time and even further south over Wales , central and northern England for example some snow possible especially high ground. Stormy potential though just before Christmas for north in particular, northwesterly wind gusts could reach 80-90mph for some exposed locations.. What has also changed.. For Christmas itself and beyond to new year there is a fair amount of change in comparison to my previous post, although there is still likely to be snow showers in the north at times and wintry showers in the south at times is possible in clearer intervals between weather systems, it looks like snow will now be mainly for high ground more often than not and while unsettled is more likely still overall, it is now more likely to be of a slightly milder variety for the most part at the end of December particularly the south and southwest of the UK over Christmas itself with a dominant high pressure to our south at times. What does remain a risk as demonstrated by the Gfs recently too at Christmas and beyond is the risk of any more prolonged precipitation being significant snow on the northern and eastern part of the fronts in northern areas particularly where a ridge of a high pressure sits over us within a colder northwest airflow preceding it when low pressure systems arrive from the west or northwest. In this case it’s possible this coincides with Christmas Day but some uncertainty. Gales or even severe gales possible anywhere during last week of December. What has changed.. high more likely centred over Spain through the last week of the year as supposed to the mid Atlantic but it’s important to note that while it may be easy to dismiss the next couple of weeks as mild and cyclonic, it really isn’t as clear cut as that and I expect continue ridging of higher pressure out in the Atlantic between low pressure at times, threatening a return to more blocked and colder weather from the north or east post Christmas and around new year, but that’s fairly low likelihood now. Overall then temperatures look to be average or slightly above average after Christmas with snow at times in some northern areas most likely and very unsettled. will give an update on that in the next few days. In the slightly shorter term there is the chance of really significant rainfall for western and northwestern Scotland during the weekend and especially round the Christmas period probably just before Christmas with the potential for 150-200mm isolated possibility of 250mm to fall altogether within a 10day timeframe on some hillier parts in the west/northwest of Scotland causing potential flooding problems sadly. Hopefully less than this will be the reality and given the timescale it could be. Still a potentially colder post Christmas but less likely now than before, less of a blocked month as a whole than perhaps anticipated by me and a few others but it hasn’t erased the chance of more blocked and cold scenarios to end the month yet, I don’t anticipate that the blocking will fade for long periods of time with the tendency for this as well as potentially cold weather and heightened snow risk to increase in early January once again. But before then the year looks to end mild and unsettled for the most part.

Does look mostly dry mid month especially for southern and western parts than the anticipated drier north but a good chance for places to dry out a bit atleast before colder weather potential, though more likely from the north first before any easterly potential. A very interesting low pressure system tomorrow looks to bring a band of heavy rain east with strengthening winds for most, then a swathe of very strong winds later in the day tomorrow with gales for Northern Ireland into northwest England and possibly into east Anglia with severe gales locally. Gusts look to reach 55-65 mph for parts of Northern Ireland fairly widely with the potential for up to a damaging 80mph on high hills and coasts for a short time. 70-80mph also a possibility for the coast of northwest England but more widely gusts reaching 55-65mph, these very strong potentially disruptive winds then move into east anglia. Elsewhere further south over England and Wales gusts look to reach 45-55mph widely and potentially 60mph in places, so a very lively day especially later on.. Mid month sees high pressure centred close to southern areas, looks like the Gfs has a good handle on the high pressure. From around the 18th keep a close eye on this high as I’m sure others have pointed out. From around 17-18th it looks like the high will slowly edge west and centre a few hundred miles to our south and west for a few days after mid month allowing colder conditions to move down from the north/northwest gradually at first towards Christmas 20-24th bringing a renewed risk of a colder spell with wintry shower’s likely developing in the north at least at first, but at least to begin with the high will have an effect of blocking off the worst of the Atlantic lows and keep things relatively dry especially across the south compared with recently though more changeable in the north with westerly winds preceding the northerly component to the wind and variable winds in the south though mostly light around mid month. With increased fog and frost risk. Gfs just as an example.. Then steadily more unsettled conditions look to develop widely over the uk around Christmas and beyond with cold and unsettled conditions that I mentioned in a previous post taking place, this bringing the potential for frequent snow showers in the north and wintry showers in the south along with more persistent wet weather which could include significant snow on their northern and eastern edge as they effectively “dive” over the UK from our northwest or north. High pressure looks to be a feature over the mid Atlantic at times in the last 10 days of December, the unsettled conditions don’t look to be a classic west to east pattern around 20th December to new year but more a meridional one. High pressure drifting to our north west or northeast at times though moving or developing further to our south and west on frequent occasions looks to be the genuinely high likelihood for the end of year period into the new year. Alternating potential very cold and snowy spells when high builds north on occasion with a then more moderated cold and drier pattern from the northwest when blocking to our north lessens and sinks back south over the mid Atlantic. All in all broadly speaking the second half of December still looks to turn colder and although the exact evolution looks to be different to hat my previous post had mentioned, it does look like at times we will see some seasonally cold weather around Christmas period and new year. There still remains a lower likelihood however that we stay mild and unsettled from our west with less blocking to our north. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4972502

Does look mostly dry mid month especially for southern and western parts than the anticipated drier north but a good chance for places to dry out a bit atleast before colder weather potential, though more likely from the north first before any easterly potential. A very interesting low pressure system tomorrow looks to bring a band of heavy rain east with strengthening winds for most, then a swathe of very strong winds later in the day tomorrow with gales for Northern Ireland into northwest England and possibly into east Anglia with severe gales locally. Gusts look to reach 55-65 mph for parts of Northern Ireland fairly widely with the potential for up to a damaging 80mph on high hills and coasts for a short time. 70-80mph also a possibility for the coast of northwest England but more widely gusts reaching 55-65mph, these very strong potentially disruptive winds then move into east anglia. Elsewhere further south over England and Wales gusts look to reach 45-55mph widely and potentially 60mph in places, so a very lively day especially later on.. Mid month sees high pressure centred close to southern areas, looks like the Gfs has a good handle on the high pressure. From around the 18th keep a close eye on this high as I’m sure others have pointed out. From around 17-18th it looks like the high will slowly edge west and centre a few hundred miles to our south and west for a few days after mid month allowing colder conditions to move down from the north/northwest gradually at first towards Christmas 20-24th bringing a renewed risk of a colder spell with wintry shower’s likely developing in the north at least at first, but at least to begin with the high will have an effect of blocking off the worst of the Atlantic lows and keep things relatively dry especially across the south compared with recently though more changeable in the north with westerly winds preceding the northerly component to the wind and variable winds in the south though mostly light around mid month. With increased fog and frost risk. Gfs just as an example.. Then steadily more unsettled conditions look to develop widely over the uk around Christmas and beyond with cold and unsettled conditions that I mentioned in a previous post taking place, this bringing the potential for frequent snow showers in the north and wintry showers in the south along with more persistent wet weather which could include significant snow on their northern and eastern edge as they effectively “dive” over the UK from our northwest or north. High pressure looks to be a feature over the mid Atlantic at times in the last 10 days of December, the unsettled conditions don’t look to be a classic west to east pattern around 20th December to new year but more a meridional one. High pressure drifting to our north west or northeast at times though moving or developing further to our south and west on frequent occasions looks to be the genuinely high likelihood for the end of year period into the new year. Alternating potential very cold and snowy spells when high builds north on occasion with a then more moderated cold and drier pattern from the northwest when blocking to our north lessens and sinks back south over the mid Atlantic. All in all broadly speaking the second half of December still looks to turn colder and although the exact evolution looks to be different to hat my previous post had mentioned, it does look like at times we will see some seasonally cold weather around Christmas period and new year. There still remains a lower likelihood however that we stay mild and unsettled from our west with less blocking to our north.

Well here’s a more detailed look at the outlook this December, for later today overnight into tomorrow we have a small trough like feature moving southeast across central and southern parts of England and Wales bringing a spell of rain in the far south, but likely to fall as snow for areas such as parts of over the midlands especially the north and west parts, Wales and possibly sleet and falling snow for a time to areas north of the M4 later tonight with accumulation possible even to fairly low levels in places, this more specifically for the midlands and Wales of course with some areas seeing sleet and rain further south. Potentially a fairly significant covering of 5-10cm on ground above 100-150 metres but even to fairly low levels slight accumulation possible with 1-4cm possible in areas below 100 metres though even in a few areas in the midlands some areas will just see rain and snow mixed. Into early next week we have two things to watch closely for.. 1. Potentially unusually high daily rainfall totals in some areas of England, more specifically looking like central areas. 2. Potentially heavy and disruptive snow for a time on high ground in parts of the midlands and more especially Wales and Pennines. Looking at the low pressure system and rain tomorrow night into Monday first and due to the slow moving nature of weather patterns over us and to our north and east with a strong level of high pressure to our northeast this keeps the low from swiftly moving east and north, keeping precipitation over areas of the uk longer than average and with the continued moisture moving into the low at a continuous rate we see long lived and potentially heavy rainfall fairly widely for several hours on Monday. Most likely accumulated rainfall being 20-40mm widely in the wettest zones, these look to be Wales, central England and parts of northern England and potentially 60mm on high ground, causing localised flooding. <25% chance that rain peters out faster and dives more to our south preventing problematic rainfall totals but still a wet day on Monday nevertheless, a cold northeast, easterly wind accompanying the rain in places though less cold than recently in southern counties. Now to the snow aspect of this system, on this rains northern and northwestern edge rain is set to be proceeded by a period of heavy snow, particularly but not exclusively on high ground over parts of Wales especially, but also parts of midlands, northern England with a period of falling snow possible for a brief time to some more lower levels. Accumulations to lower levels in the main risk zones of Wales and West Midlands, and northern England look to be sporadic but a few cm’s could well accumulate for a time Monday, with high ground seeing the potential for 5-10cm. Higher ground of Wales being the highest risk and the Pennines with even substantial totals of around 10-15cm not to be ruled out here before snow is restricted for the highest ground further north. Low pressure system clears to our east. Some parts of Scotland, all of Northern Ireland and a few areas of northern England avoiding the wet weather from this Low and conditions stay fine for some but cold with wintry showers else where. Looking one more time at later this week, rainfall will be frequent for central, western and southern areas of England and Wales in particular with the south shifted tracks at first as has been mentioned in previous posts, the likelihood of very windy conditions at times being higher after that aspect was under some doubt a couple of days ago, but could well see gales or severe gales on occasion in far southern and western parts, but by Friday/Saturday only Scotland at risk of hill snow as the long awaited milder spell makes its mark albeit probably fairly brief mark over the UK bringing very unsettled weather to nearly all or all areas with heavy rain in places sweeping through. Looking beyond next week up to mid month and beyond, in my previous posts the talk was of milder and very unsettled weather and on balance that should be the case, but now it looks like more settled conditions to me are more likely than very unsettled conditions for northern areas specifically Scotland by mid month, but for southern and western areas the risk of rain and wind looks to continue to mid month along with continued less cold temperatures, though not without breaks of a day or two in-between with the renewed potential for high ground snowfalls to effect northern England, but of course as hinted previously Scotland continuing to have colder influences throughout with hill snow likely even up to mid month, though not immune from slightly milder incursions in this time frame so largely what I’ve said in previous posts albeit slight adjustments to the outlook. Beyond mid month and higher pressure to our northeast still very much there beginning to try and push those Atlantic weather systems further west once again bringing the risk of colder than average conditions, on balance this does still look more likely than not with high pressure over Scandinavia pushing west towards northern areas. This would sweep much colder air west and southwest towards the UK once again bringing the renewal of colder than average conditions more widely and snow potential once again in the form of showers primarily from the east or southeast, perhaps more frequent than has been the case within this cold spell, but potentially some significant snowfalls from any incoming Atlantic lows which may still try and encroach from our south and southwest with an active Atlantic at first. This could be wrong of course and we may remain mild and unsettled throughout to this last period of December but that seems fairly unlikely in my view. An estimation 60-80% of cold and at times snowy conditions towards the end of the month quite widely across the UK with easterly winds, 20-40% chance that things stay less cold and more westerly with unsettled weather from the west and less influence from blocking further to our east apart from giving rise to flooding issues slowing weather fronts over the UK. Certainly potential for a memorable Christmas period from a snow perspective but it’s simply too far out for certainty and this is my view of how things could pan out as always keep an eye on the met office updates longer term too. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4967593

Well here’s a more detailed look at the outlook this December, for later today overnight into tomorrow we have a small trough like feature moving southeast across central and southern parts of England and Wales bringing a spell of rain in the far south, but likely to fall as snow for areas such as parts of over the midlands especially the north and west parts, Wales and possibly sleet and falling snow for a time to areas north of the M4 later tonight with accumulation possible even to fairly low levels in places, this more specifically for the midlands and Wales of course with some areas seeing sleet and rain further south. Potentially a fairly significant covering of 5-10cm on ground above 100-150 metres but even to fairly low levels slight accumulation possible with 1-4cm possible in areas below 100 metres though even in a few areas in the midlands some areas will just see rain and snow mixed. Into early next week we have two things to watch closely for.. 1. Potentially unusually high daily rainfall totals in some areas of England, more specifically looking like central areas. 2. Potentially heavy and disruptive snow for a time on high ground in parts of the midlands and more especially Wales and Pennines. Looking at the low pressure system and rain tomorrow night into Monday first and due to the slow moving nature of weather patterns over us and to our north and east with a strong level of high pressure to our northeast this keeps the low from swiftly moving east and north, keeping precipitation over areas of the uk longer than average and with the continued moisture moving into the low at a continuous rate we see long lived and potentially heavy rainfall fairly widely for several hours on Monday. Most likely accumulated rainfall being 20-40mm widely in the wettest zones, these look to be Wales, central England and parts of northern England and potentially 60mm on high ground, causing localised flooding. <25% chance that rain peters out faster and dives more to our south preventing problematic rainfall totals but still a wet day on Monday nevertheless, a cold northeast, easterly wind accompanying the rain in places though less cold than recently in southern counties. Now to the snow aspect of this system, on this rains northern and northwestern edge rain is set to be proceeded by a period of heavy snow, particularly but not exclusively on high ground over parts of Wales especially, but also parts of midlands, northern England with a period of falling snow possible for a brief time to some more lower levels. Accumulations to lower levels in the main risk zones of Wales and West Midlands, and northern England look to be sporadic but a few cm’s could well accumulate for a time Monday, with high ground seeing the potential for 5-10cm. Higher ground of Wales being the highest risk and the Pennines with even substantial totals of around 10-15cm not to be ruled out here before snow is restricted for the highest ground further north. Low pressure system clears to our east. Some parts of Scotland, all of Northern Ireland and a few areas of northern England avoiding the wet weather from this Low and conditions stay fine for some but cold with wintry showers else where. Looking one more time at later this week, rainfall will be frequent for central, western and southern areas of England and Wales in particular with the south shifted tracks at first as has been mentioned in previous posts, the likelihood of very windy conditions at times being higher after that aspect was under some doubt a couple of days ago, but could well see gales or severe gales on occasion in far southern and western parts, but by Friday/Saturday only Scotland at risk of hill snow as the long awaited milder spell makes its mark albeit probably fairly brief mark over the UK bringing very unsettled weather to nearly all or all areas with heavy rain in places sweeping through. Looking beyond next week up to mid month and beyond, in my previous posts the talk was of milder and very unsettled weather and on balance that should be the case, but now it looks like more settled conditions to me are more likely than very unsettled conditions for northern areas specifically Scotland by mid month, but for southern and western areas the risk of rain and wind looks to continue to mid month along with continued less cold temperatures, though not without breaks of a day or two in-between with the renewed potential for high ground snowfalls to effect northern England, but of course as hinted previously Scotland continuing to have colder influences throughout with hill snow likely even up to mid month, though not immune from slightly milder incursions in this time frame so largely what I’ve said in previous posts albeit slight adjustments to the outlook. Beyond mid month and higher pressure to our northeast still very much there beginning to try and push those Atlantic weather systems further west once again bringing the risk of colder than average conditions, on balance this does still look more likely than not with high pressure over Scandinavia pushing west towards northern areas. This would sweep much colder air west and southwest towards the UK once again bringing the renewal of colder than average conditions more widely and snow potential once again in the form of showers primarily from the east or southeast, perhaps more frequent than has been the case within this cold spell, but potentially some significant snowfalls from any incoming Atlantic lows which may still try and encroach from our south and southwest with an active Atlantic at first. This could be wrong of course and we may remain mild and unsettled throughout to this last period of December but that seems fairly unlikely in my view. An estimation 60-80% of cold and at times snowy conditions towards the end of the month quite widely across the UK with easterly winds, 20-40% chance that things stay less cold and more westerly with unsettled weather from the west and less influence from blocking further to our east apart from giving rise to flooding issues slowing weather fronts over the UK. Certainly potential for a memorable Christmas period from a snow perspective but it’s simply too far out for certainty and this is my view of how things could pan out as always keep an eye on the met office updates longer term too.

Gfs now more consistent with later next week so the charts below should be pretty close to reality now after mid week next week. Cold lingers in the north then especially Scotland with snow at first for areas further south in places but snow risks continue for Scotland, higher pressure to our northeast and east slowing down the progress of the Atlantic lows from end of next week upto mid month. These lows will be deepening along their southerly track at this point threatening something more turbulent to our west and south. This high to our northeast will influence the weather patterns close by and over the UK beyond mid month bringing further interest from a snow and cold perspective. Apologies for the similar worded and repetitive posts on this upcoming week in my outlook’s, will give a more detailed outlook tomorrow evening if I remember, along with more charts and detailed data and further ahead view of things.

Think this will be close to the mark, similar to my posts over the last few days. Certainly potential for a snowy breakdown for central and northern areas latter part of next week, not expecting the typical synoptic pressure patterns we usually see over the North Atlantic than usual, slider lows being talked about a lot this December I feel. But milder for a time further south anyway.

Just a tad unsettled then.. when I said it may turn stormy Gfs I didn’t mean that much.. Definitely unlikely to that extent but unsettled weather although not as unsettled as Gfs looks likely to be over the UK towards mid month as said previously with rain proceeded by snow in places for a time at the start of next week for example and risk of gales likely for some, particularly the northwest, though it looks like it will still be a fairly south shifted unsettled spell, with the tendency for snow to return to Scotland on occasion even in the milder spell further south and high pressure could still build back to our northwest or northeast just after mid month bringing colder conditions back south but looking slightly less likely than yesterday. Will give a more detailed update later or tomorrow. Keep an eye out for that rain sleet and snow this weekend and possible snow showers in the southeast or east of England tonight..

Morning, does look as if conditions will turn unsettled or very unsettled further north over the uk more quickly and slightly earlier than anticipated by a few days during the second week of December, though the potential for snow proceeding rain during the transition middle latter part of next week almost anywhere is still there though slight more emphasis on that risk being for northern areas mostly. Heights do still look to remain relatively high to our northwest and northeast which keeps low pressure systems slightly south shifted as hinted previously the other day over the uk towards mid December likely further south slightly than GFS this morning above, bringing rain and possibly some snow in places during this change until this is restricted to Scotland with strong winds with the risk of gales being the main risk elsewhere, it doesn’t look like conditions will turn particularly mild but yes a milder and more mobile unsettled spell second week of December looking likely, but Scotland sometimes hanging on to the colder air even by mid month with some mostly hill snow continuing at times. In the short term sleet and snow in the far south and southwest possible later tonight and tomorrow giving a possibility of covering of a 3-5cm on high ground above 150m and snow showers making their way inland over eastern and perhaps central England later tomorrow and Friday. A further disturbance on the weekend bringing areas of rain,sleet and snow further inland over parts of England and Wales, giving the risk of a significant covering on high ground and a light covering of a cm or 2 to lowers levels. After mid month colder conditions are still more likely than not. So I wouldn't get too hung up on the extensive milder westerly southwesterly patterns appearing right now, they don’t seem likely to last beyond mid month though it could stay fairly unsettled albeit of the much colder variety.

Hey, good question especially being as a lot of cold blocked potential over and to the north of the uk on many runs have shown recently during mid month as well .. I’m not confident of anything significantly mild but confident of a brief unsettled spell around mid month milder temps for the majority or all, because and just a few examples being general model guidance in the last few days, also mentioning mid month accounting to a delay of the eventual unsettled weather, as you can see some weather models have shown unsettled milder conditions more widely in the second week of December and of course in reality the high pressure blocking patterns tend to shift slower than models indicate most of the time which is partly the reason why I’ve said a pattern like that looks most likely a few days later with a middle ground scenario of low pressure systems moving over more southern and western parts on a southerly track during that second week of December looks most likely also, with frontal snow risks along with blocking areas of high pressure continuing to some extent to our northeast and northwest throughout second week of December. Also one or two background drivers favour a return to milder westerly conditions for a time, but this looks brief which is why I’ve mentioned that in my post, also from experience of watching synoptics from past events give a decent idea as to what the forward weather pattern may be. That isn’t full proof of course but is a good indicator to work with in certain scenarios such as this one, Another example for my brief milder view around mid month being ensemble forecasts have generally either hinted at more mobility approaching the west or full blown very unsettled conditions such as the Gfs over more than just one or two model output updates over the last 2 or 3 days as well as using a super ensemble taking information from the majority of the weather models and deciphering what the weather conditions could be based on that from my view, of course I could be wrong and we stay cold and blocked throughout mid month, but I see that as unlikely but next week yes for all, into second week for some possibly all yes and after mid month also possibly cold and potentially snowy at times too but not for the mid month period I don’t think. Hopefully this makes sense, it looks different this year compared with a lot of other years with higher than normal chance of cold and snow even for southern regions and for anyone who dislikes the default westerly pattern then you’ll probably be very pleased with how December looks to pan out.

Oh dear not the best post I did on Thursdays low, could graze the south but looks to go into northern France but that means it will be a colder day on Thursday with a disturbance moving southwest over eastern and possibly southern areas bringing snow showers inland, significant frosts either way.plenty of snow showers in the northeast for a time.. more snow chances further south and west and to be honest overall almost anywhere over the UK with the slow breakdown into the second week of December which still looks most likely, So plenty for cold lovers to be happy about. Still most likely to turn unsettled or very unsettled and milder around mid month for a few days around mid December, but cold probably follows not so long after with snow risk increasing again for many atm.

Definitely a very interesting situation on Thursday across central and southern areas with that low pressure system modelled further north now. The general track of the low itself looks like it will travel close to what UKMO model and GFS model show, that brings increased snow chance along that area of rainfall for those midland parts. But the favoured track I feel actually being slightly further south than GFS this morning, which would bring the south and southeast into the snow risk eventually too on Thursday, although snow from evaporative cooling may not be picked up by models for certain areas until the day itself on Thursday. GFS model output just to show the precipitation up close for the low.. Temperatures would fall during the heavy precipitation on Thursday bringing the snow line further and further down and depending on exact positioning and speed at which the band moves through (though this looks to be a slowdown and pivot scenario) this could allow snow to fall to lower levels in the south as well for a time, perhaps to between 50-100m elevation in some areas. Plenty of moisture with that low pressure system, so accumulations could be quite significant on high ground around 150m perhaps totals exceeding 10cm for a few, with a few cm’s to elevation lower than this, with some just seeing rain/ snow with no accumulation of course. I suspect the centre of the low will track northeast across northern France at first on Wednesday night with the associated fronts and rain/hill snow already into the far south and possibly southwest on Wednesday night, then the low makes a jog north on Thursday with the centre looking like going over the south then over the southeast of England, so not as north as Gfs this morning but not as south as other models, it’s worth pointing out that this isn’t a guarantee and there’s a small <25% chance that the precipitation on Thursday stays mostly away to our south and precipitation from the west being the biggest risk for snow and rain. Looking ahead once again and whilst there is a small chance of the Synoptics of the Gfs coming off for around 6th-7th with those lows.. it really looks very unlikely for that timeframe and a more likely evolution being pressure remains fairly high near or over Greenland, forcing the jet on a southerly track with subsequent low pressure systems beginning to more readily move into the south or southwest but being slowed down by higher pressure and much colder air at this point over Scandinavia, potentially bringing brief snowfall in the west and south, perhaps even disruptive for a short time here beginning second week of December before milder air slowly makes its way across atleast the southern half of the country during the second week of December with any possible persistent snow risk then over northern UK from any bands of rain that work their way northeast to these areas. wintry showers continuing for Scotland, by which time higher pressure fades atleast to an extent from northwest and northeast of us and lows take a more northerly track across the UK bringing that milder and more unsettled spell towards by midmonth.

I actually think the chances of a more lengthy cold spell throughout next week has increased with a stronger likelihood of high pressure dominating to our northwest then west. Regarding the low later next week, just noticed the posts above about the Met office so will just add this part in. Gfs seems plausible, but possibly less of a developed low to our north/northwest than Gfs indicates, this could indicate a a slightly more southerly low into France keeping it cold everywhere.. as per the met office thinking with showers and drier spells dominating, but i feel on balance rain from that low will push up into southern, and southeastern areas of England bringing the potential for significant snow on high ground and the risk of heavy rain turning to sleet and snow for a time before it clears to lower levels across parts of the south midlands and southern parts of east anglia on the northern side of the low but of course the Met office would be the place to go over some fella with unknown expertise (me) posting on net weather in regards to the precise track. For lowland southern counties largely rain if this scenario where to play out, but regardless it will clear to our east or southeast and leave a continuation of colder conditions with overnight frosts and largely wintry mix in showers in some areas in the north..but in any more organised troughs middle to end of next week would bring that snow line to more lower levels of northern England northwards. All in all a rather messy evolution next week and detail hard to pin down for sure and a lot of things repeated from my post yesterday, but keep an eye on that low for southern England/France, every chance that brings something of a wintry mix to areas further south. Evaporative cooling could play a role, and being mentioned I’m sure in the coming days. Keep an eye on those met office updates, always the go to place. Lots to keep an eye on and before any more unsettled weather mid month, it looks like higher pressure will be over the UK beforehand after a more mixed week next week. But as seen over the last few days, weather predictions and expectations can change rapidly whether you are experienced and knowledgeable in this field or not.

Didn’t get round to posting my post this morning but here it is.. So an easterly and northerly wind with high out west looking the main theme next week, not the colder northwesterlies I thought would happen, though ofcourse it is likely to turn colder with plenty of frost around. Monday low pressure moves southeast over parts of the country, particularly western and southern areas, temporary hill snow possible for north wales and northern England though that is unlikely, winds turn easterly to northeasterly for all. probably turning drier and very frosty midweek as a high migrates over the uk in places.. For the majority of the rest of the week there is likely to be showers moving into some areas, with a low pressure system by the end of the week handled perhaps best by the GEM model approaching the west and southwest with milder air threatening.. unlike the high dominated first few days of December that I had anticipated would happen. Possibly a couple of troughs and other disturbances bringing more showers into some areas, mainly northern areas where these will be wintry for northern areas on hills, but probably to some lower levels in Scotland at times, probably across central northern England too in any significant frontal rain, this mainly a risk from end of next weeks low and from possible disturbances in the North Sea with high pressure sat to our west but perhaps to our northwest towards Greenland for a short time, albeit not a particularly strong high for long before leaving this area. Very frosty for many with ice around, a very seasonal end to autumn! By the 7th - 12th December things look to turn less cold in the west anyway in as high pressure moves south and allows low pressure to gradually start moving across the UK, this would bring rain but a good chance of snow in the north especially but not necessarily just on high ground especially at the start of the period. After this around mid December it is more likely turn milder for a time but possibly stormy for some. But that’s not to say it will last throughout the rest of the month and there’s a higher chance than not that conditions turn colder than average for some or all once again, but whether that coincides with Christmas remains to be seen.. Enjoy the colder week and if you see some snow then a bonus!

Well yesterday was certainly that rare occasion where widespread heavy rain in the south wasn’t modelled well at all. Models hadn’t shown any significant rain crossing through to our south until Monday then with each update I noticed this was edged north as going into France, this was a sure sign that models where picking up on a disturbance that previously wasn’t expected to form and that along with the rainfall radar displaying the rain further north on Monday night than any model was showing, that it would be a much wetter part of the day for at least places south of Cardiff and London. Of course the rain was further north even than this. Definitely a disturbance that slipped through the “fine net”. Anyway not the only feature models are having trouble with, the low for tomorrow obviously still quite uncertain for the computer models although they are converging, but previous most likely chart I showed in my previous post from the Gfs run on Saturday looks like being close still. So then yet more heavy rain over southern England and Wales tomorrow, there is a chance that this rain makes its way through north Wales and the central northern Midlands I would say 25-40%. 15-30mm of rain widely with rain lasting for 9-12 hours in places and more on high ground and to lower levels where the bands pivot, this looks to be over parts of southwest England and southeast Wales. 50mm could accumulate here in places. Rain will also likely be very heavy for a time as it moves though places south of the M4 west to east where 50mm or so could accumulate in a few areas. More widely 20-40mm So some flooding is likely in a few places. Arpege.. Then we have those strong winds across the southwest and parts of the south coast. Likely to gust to 40-50mph perhaps 60mph in a few places here, but a more concerning risk of another area of stormy and potentially damaging winds moving through the Channel Islands and perhaps the northern tip of France, with gales and potentially damaging gusts to 60-70mph for a time, but as north to northwesterlies! So given the weakened structures and trees from violent storm ciaran a couple of weeks ago and given the strongest winds could be from an unusual direction they could potentially cause even more damage and problems than a southwesterly would do at the same strength, so definitely not as strong or as problematic as violent storm Ciaran for the Channel Islands but it will still likely pack a meteorological “punch”. One thing to note is if the rain tomorrow reaches north Wales and the midlands 25-40% chance then some potentially locally damaging north to northwesterly wind gusts of 60-70mph could effect parts of the exposed south coast and far southwest of England. Though emphasis really is on the rain for mainland. Still turning windy inland with gusts to 30-40mph for many south of the Midlands and potentially 50mph in some areas. Winds will be southeast then turning easterly and then north and northwesterly over much of the southern half of the uk in association with still storm system. Comparing my previous look into next week and beyond, great thing is there’s not a whole of difference so no need for much of an update for now, only thing to highlight being the increased potential for more overnight frost and fog in a few areas, probably mainly over more southern areas at times next week as the unsettled weather continues to some extent over Northern Ireland and Scotland with the potential again of snow to lower levels in Scotland and possibly high ground of wales and northern England. About the early December look, One thing that I do want to mention and while it does still look like high pressure will influence the uk with frost and fog into early December it really does look like this will be a few day thing before very unsettled weather returns from the west or southwest, heralding milder weather but of course not a definite. Take care, stay vigilant if you live in the Channel Islands tomorrow. Weather won’t be extreme or anywhere near as bad as 2 weeks ago but will be problematic and potentially severe for a time if those 60-70mph do materialise, which is fairly likely. Will update tomorrow or Friday.

Focusing on the here and now and GFS for example picking up then dropping the midweek low pressure system next week, The main feature if this does form and moves across the UK, centre moving across southern areas or central England will be rain, perhaps heavy and potentially windy along the south coast and through the southwest. here’s a super ensemble look at this.. the low in question of will it won’t it for midweek more of a trough like feature bringing the risk of rain close to the south though no storm. Yesterday evenings 18z It certainly is not agreeing with the Gfs output for the midweek low.. GFS 00z I think yesterday evening’s Icon will be closer to reality, though a tad less developed and slightly further south I think.. ICON 18z current thoughts.. more akin with yesterday’s midday run of GFS for the midweek low.. Now it looks like a very similar low pressure system to what my previous post hinted at being for middle of the week next week, looks set to develop and move over the central or northern part of England tomorrow with some very strong wind gusts developing over many areas of England and Wales through tomorrow. Winds around the low look to strengthen as it crosses the country with gales around coasts and gusts inland of 40-50mph for much of England and Wales, but a particularly strong swathe of wind gusts look likely to transfer eastwards through north midlands/northern England bringing widespread wind gusts inland of a potentially locally disruptive 55-65mph through these areas and locally 70-80mph over isolated hilly parts of northern England and perhaps the Irish Sea. There is the small possibility 10-20% of severe gales elsewhere further south over more southern areas but 40-50mph, locally 55mph looks most likely here, so certainly very strong and noticeable but probably won’t be particularly troublesome south of the north midlands. A few precise track and strength options still on offer as you see from an example of three GEFS ensemble members below, though a few others also show similar.. Accompanying all this will be of course more heavy and persistent rainfall for the south and particularly west of the UK and eastern Scotland with 10-20mm widely and potentially 40-50mm in a few spots in some areas, especially on high ground but not exclusively so. Some of this rain looks as was hinted in previous post to wraparound to eastern Scotland bringing similar rainfall totals just north of the low pressure system, with sleet/snow possibly on some high ground. Middle of this week, less emphasis on a deep low like the Gfs this morning shows and more likely a semi developed low pressure system moving southeast over southern areas into the near continent bringing more heavy rain. Showery further north with the next spell of wet and very windy weather not far behind.

Broadly similar but as a whole looks drier for those areas of eastern Scotland and eastern England compared with the last couple of weeks, with rain generally moving through quicker through those especially hard hit areas so although not settled and wet at times here it thankfully doesn’t look extreme or as wet as elsewhere. does look much wetter for the south and west UK compared to elsewhere like I said above through next week as a whole. But hopefully a trend for drier weather developing for the southern half of the country in the following week. An example of this below..

An incredibly deep area of low pressure modelled by the GFS this morning out over the middle of the North Atlantic. Pressure down to 928mb, weakening and then effecting Iceland, while it won’t effect us at all, it does show the potential conducive environment for explosive cyclogenesis to be prevalent with any systems developing across the Atlantic towards the end of November. For the short term it remains less unsettled than recently with places managing to steadily dry out to some extent, as for tomorrow and especially Friday, not looking as settled as previously thought would be for southern parts of the uk with windy conditions in the south and west of England and Wales as well as further showers with possibly a longer spell of rain swinging southeast for a time early Friday but not amounting to much, showery in the north too but not particularly breezy. Weekend as a whole looks mostly dry for northern and eastern parts of the uk, with the risk of frost and fog for a few especially for Scotland, whereas although perhaps dry at first further south , it will turn cloudier with rain moving into southwestern areas later Saturday and then southern areas on Sunday as a low and weather front tries to move through though high pressure developing over Scandinavia helping to delay and disrupt the weather fronts progress east with the large majority of the front slipping into the Low countries. By Monday/Tuesday next week, these unsettled conditions spreading northeast into Scotland too with the risk of snow on hills here, becoming windy in the south and west of the UK by the middle of next week with the risk of gales around coasts and gusts to 40-50mph inland moving east along with further rain in some areas possibly heaviest over the vulnerable parts of eastern Scotland with a wraparound weather front bringing the chance of heaviest rain for a time here. but won’t be a washout by any means for the most part elsewhere with on the whole excluding middle of next week the wettest conditions generally still over the south and west of the uk through next week. Turning slightly milder for most. Apart from possibly the far northeast of the uk. With hill snow continuing to be possible in Scotland. Into the third week of November 20th to 27th and it’s likely that higher pressure will have more influence over southern areas of England , with more average Synoptics taking hold for a time with wettest and windiest weather over Northern Ireland and Scotland with the risk of gales occasionally and somewhat drier and less windy weather further south with some dry days but still with weakening frontal systems producing more cloud and some drizzle and light rain in the more settled areas on occasion. Gfs as a broad example though this view isn’t based off just the Gfs output. Perhaps higher pressure slipping back southwest of the uk and higher pressure remaining close to or over Scandinavia, along with a strengthening of the jet stream across the Atlantic in the last few days of November with it becoming colder for most or all as northwest winds possibly more frequent bringing much more unsettled conditions into all areas with the increasing risk of gales in places, these could be severe in places with northern areas most at risk at first anyway. Rain bands look most likely to move across the country quite quickly so significant flooding as we’ve seen from any one weather system is unlikely but we may see more flooding from just the succession of rain bands. With the possible colder conditions there could be snow to lower levels of Scotland on occasion with hill snow possible in northern areas of England and Wales in heavier precipitation. This may lead to a more settled start to meteorological winter with high pressure beginning to influence all areas more through the first week of December with increased fog and frost for some. And drier start to the month for all. But this is a while out of course so we’ll see if that does happen.