Jordan S

Haven't been on here since February, what a spell of hot weather on the way! The fact that a few charts show widespread 37-38c over England for Monday/ Tuesday is ofcourse absolutely amazing, and does hint at higher temperatures being reached than this in a few spots with maximums of 39-40c being a realistic possibility, especially with a few models pointing to these figures, a probably greater than 50% chance of those extreme maximums. Incredible temperatures. Outside chance of 41c locally if everything lines up "perfectly" perhaps east Midlands/ parts of east Anglia the areas in which the highest temperatures may be recorded, as pretty evident on recent model runs. But widespread 35-38c almost certainly being reached across England is plenty high enough and no doubt will cause heat related problems amongst the more vulnerable especially but not necessarily exclusively hence the amber heat warning. Simply remarkable heatwave.

Should be calmer but still wet and windy occasionally, potentially very windy by Sunday/Monday though with severe gales a possibility once again, most likely for northern Ireland and Scotland.

xcweather.co.uk another good wind observation website. A gust recently of 52mph at high Wycombe, notable.

Looking at Mogreps for later tomorrow into boxing day and a few members are showing more in the way of sleet/snowfall for parts of Wales and the Midlands/northern England particularly high ground later tomorrow night into boxing day with the orientation and timing of the rain band still not certain and has a play to part in any snow risk and while unlikely to be any large amounts there *could* be a covering on high ground. The UKv output this morning is most likely close though with at least falling snow in some areas. Towards the new year becoming mild with unsettled weather mainly for the north, but the first few days of January may see the more unsettled weather head further southeast along with temperatures lowering with a South/Southwest airflow replaced with a more west/northwest flow bringing the possibility of snow back to high ground in the north though perhaps to lower levels behind frontal systems.

Yes.

They probably are referring to the first weather front later Christmas Eve weakening Christmas morning.

There are still quite large differences in the timing and positioning of the area of rain moving northeast later Christmas day/boxing day, here are some of the models for the same timeframes.. UKMO.. Icon.. Gem.. Arpege.. Ecmwf.. Comparing the Gem and Arpege with that lower probability southerly track and the Arpege is more realistic in terms of the location of the sleet/snow, mainly for high ground. The main message though is rain some heavy moving slowly north/northeast over central southern and western parts later Christmas day and then into northern England and possibily northern Ireland during the early hours of boxing day, milder air moving slowly further north too, any snow along the boundary of mild and cold probably largely for high ground.

It doesn't go any further but would be showing a cold and dry rest of boxing day for most except for a few snow showers moving south over northern England and Scotland.

The UKv for Christmas day, cold for the majority by the evening. Precipitation..

It's actually the front coming into the southwest on that UKv update that would bring the heavy rain/snow over central areas during the afternoon as the GFS shows, so slightly beyond the timeframe of this UKv chart , if you could run it further it would probably show a similar scenario to the Gfs, that patchy area of rain during the early hours of Saturday is from a different weather front that most other models weaken too.

Just posted as @TSNWK asked if they where available.

Here is the 6z Ecmwf update this morning..

Here is the latest GFS for Christmas day.. Cold air across northern areas moving slowly south with sleet/snow on the northern edge of the rain band along with strong easterly winds.

Hi Mizzle, yes in this scenario that low over the Atlantic does, the GFS is probably showing this further northeast on the 25th-27th than what will actually happen and will probably be corrected south as we get closer to the day, though by how much remains to be seen. For some northern and northeastern areas though a growing chance of snow around Christmas with any rain and subsequently milder air a higher possibility for the west/southwest of England and Wales, snow most likely being in the form of showers but possibly from a frontal system that may arrive 25th/26th. A lower chance but still a credible possibility of a bit of snow in the south for this time frame with the low tracking further south still though many areas would be just dry and cold. A frontal system still looks like moving into the west/southwest of England and Wales on the 23rd/24th bringing some rain and also the possibility of snow to more western and central areas of England and Wales for now, weakening as it does so.

The weakening weather front for the 23rd below, a bit faster arriving into western areas on this update with snow on the leading edge, cold air moving south/southwest towards Scotland. worth watching those rainfall totals in the south, greatest risk of snow for northern and northeastern areas during Christmas.

A satellite view of the developing low for tomorrow to our southwest from eumetsat with the airmass included and the area of low pressure circled.. Will look impressive on satellite tomorrow as it moves across the western Isles. The GFS on the low pressure systems development.. Here's the UKv charts with the low bringing a brief spell of stormy weather to the western Isles especially, but very strong winds for much of northern Scotland. Mean winds speeds.. Gusts probably reaching 65-80mph (perhaps slightly more) lasting for 2-4 hours later tomorrow into Monday morning. Very windy for northern Ireland as well with gusts to 50-60mph possible in exposed areas later tomorrow. Wind gusts.. Winds around the low increasing further after it clears to the northeast of the western Isles over the open waters, similar wind strength to the western Isles might move over Shetland during Monday morning, clearing by 12pm but the strongest winds from the low probably remaining to their west/northwest. Further strong winds though not as strong move into these areas once again later Monday along with persistent rainfall over parts of western Scotland through Tuesday.

Evening A few sleet/snow showers possible later tonight for few areas of Wales and England. The possibility of snow on the leading edge of the band of rain on Friday for Eastern and especially northern areas though this will be mostly rain for many. Big differences of course between some models but frontal systems coming into the west early next week may be preceded by a period of sleet/snow in eastern and especially northern areas, before moving in a east or southeasterly direction accompanied by strong winds in some places. Then during the middle part of next week we see low pressure over some of the country keeping things unsettled with any snow probably mostly for hills in the north, but not to be ruled out for other areas further south for example northern England, as the low is likely to hang around the UK instead of moving swiftly through. The end of next week more likely than not remaining unsettled and although temperatures may rise, it isn't likely to be particularly mild, but with a more mobile set up perhaps taking place then wet and possibly very windy conditions may arrive, more for the west and north, a fairly high chance of snow for high ground in the north even then.

Red warning issued now for parts of the northeast.

Here's the ukv from 3am.. Winds do look severe for some coastal areas, the possibility of 80-90mph from a northerly direction is very notable but even the fairly widespread 50-65mph wind gusts across large parts elsewhere is enough to cause some localised damage accompanied by rain and snow for some.

Hi, first time posting in a while, a rather wintry feeling end to November looking likely. So high pressure to the west of the UK by the end of next week with a cold northerly wind for some at least after Thursday with wintry showers, perhaps longer spells of Rain/Snow within the flow in a few places during next weekend, any snow mainly for the north and especially on higher ground but many places probably stay dry. Into the following week winds probably turn more to the west/northwest. A low probability of a rapidly deepening low pressure system moving on a northwest to southeast trajectory across the central part of the UK before the milder synoptic pattern change as shown by the GFS on 3 consecutive updates, bringing the risk of Rain, Snow and Gales to some parts of England and Wales.. Gfs.. 29th.. As what usually tends to happen with these low pressure systems, a gradual lessening of the projected development will almost certainly take place from the Gfs. Whether that low develops or not, it will probably be quite cold into the early part of the following week beginning 29th with showers, wintry showers for some, then milder later in that week with a more westerly wind looking most likely for a time. Ecmwf.. 30th

A change to dry and settled weather is coming as we know from tuesday. Before then we've got one more very wet spell in some places later tomorrow and through Friday. Unusually wet especially for the time of year on high ground across parts of Wales, frequent showers and organised bands of rain moving across, this very heavy at times and prolonged from tomorrow afternoon to Friday evening. Over 100mm will probably fall over the wettest place in Wales by the end of friday with upto 130mm a possibility, 75-90mm more widely on high ground, other areas will get showers and longer spells of rain too throughout the day with some places of northern England, Scotland and possibly northern Ireland getting around 25-50mm. The Arome and Arpege probably very close to the outcome for these areas. Even a little snow on the mountains of Scotland later in the day. Here's the high pressure over most of the uk next week, not completely dry everywhere all the time but for most it will be. Although temperatures will be below average for most, they might rise more widely to average by next weekend.

Having another look at that low pressure system for later this week, coastal gales do continue to look likely, very windy for the south and west inland, winds gusting 50+mph along some coastal parts on Friday, then very showery after the initial frontal band of rain later thursday. Gfs.. Gem.. More low pressure probably moving through on sunday and monday so showery weather continuing with longer spells of rain in a few areas.. Tuesday next week high pressure probably moving in from the southwest into many areas with the weather becoming settled and drier especially in the west and southwest.. further ahead to the end of the working week so uncertainty at the moment, but high pressure more likely than not will remain over atleast some parts of the uk until next weekend at least, with the Gfs as an example. Probably in a position that keeps temperatures average to slightly below average for much of the week but feeling warm enough in sunshine..

Does look like that shift in wettest conditions being more for central and southern areas midweek will likely happen, with a low moving slowly northwards on wednesday night bringing heavy rain into southern parts, then slowly moving north during the day on thursday, locally it could be thundery.. around 25mm probably accumulating for some but possibly as much as 40-60mm in a few places. Gfs.. Rainfall accumulation.. Icon.. low pressure close by during the weekend so a continuation of sunshine and showers some heavy and possibly thundery but a few places may stay dry with sunshine. A longer spell of rain likely moving east into the west and south of England and Wales on saturday and then possibly another one on sunday. Next week showery with some sunshine though longer spells of rain will move across some areas occasionally. Stronger winds and coastal gales may return more widely again during the middle or latter part of next week perhaps more for England and Wales. Temperatures likely similar to this week, winds probably mostly northwesterly and westerly. Middle of next week..

Morning Certainly a good chance of a few thunderstorms in the far south east during the evening time, some strong thunderstorms possibly develop over France. Here's the airmass satellite this morning, you can see the thundery developments to our south.. Could be some more purple colours appearing in some of those thunderstorm cells moving across and out of France this evening, also over Belgium with quite large hail possible in a few of those, a small chance of this in any isolated ones that may manage to get to the far southeast of England this evening, something to keep a close watch on.. no guarantees ofcourse and though unlikely it could all be to our southeast with limited or no thundery activity over the far southeast. The Arome.. Something that was being suggested yesterday by the models and looks like the ukv above shows it too, which @Mr Frost has also shown is a second possibly organised system moving northnortheast out of France during the early hours of tomorrow, heavy showery rain/possible cluster of thunderstorms with suggestions of it coming out of France slightly west of the preceding thunderstorms this evening, still probably moving in a mostly northnortheast direction. either way looks to be frontal rain later in the far east by the morning tomorrow and clears away.

The low pressure system later tonight through the morning will be further south to what I previously thought was likely, but rain moving into the southwest of England in a few hours but the majority of it remaining over the English channel and into northern France, this rain also probably moves along other southern coastal counties further east though during the morning, some cloud around to the north of this with an area of showery rain looking to develop during the morning over north Wales into the Midlands, which could fall as sleet or snow on high ground at first, turning to rain before moving southeast during the early afternoon. Looking at the low pressure system for Saturday again, windy for many and much of the rain heavy for a few hours.. widely 10-20mm accumulating including the far southeast of England, particularly wet for south Wales, still likely to be snow on some high ground of Scotland for a time though possibly the highest ground of Wales and northern England too briefly. The rain continues on sunday morning for some western parts especially Wales where altogether from saturday 50-80mm accumulating locally. Ahead of this wet weather some heavy showers with the chance of thunder possibly developing later on sunday for central and more especially eastern parts.. showers likely for northern Ireland and Scotland some heavy with one or two thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rising on saturday but becoming much warmer for southern and particularly eastern England on sunday, they will probably reach between 17-20c in sunny spells, possibly locally upto 22c. Another look at early next week it will turn cooler again in the east but not as cold as this week. heavy showers around on monday but probably in particular for Scotland and more especially northern Ireland again where there is more likely to be a few thunderstorms bringing hail, strong winds and locally torrential rain. Heavy showers developing quite widely though for other places, except the southeast where there will probably be few. This weather looking likely to continue on tuesday with further heavy showers around but the wettest weather looks to be more for the northwest instead of the south with low pressure from this weekend still around.. perhaps the wettest weather shifting to central and southern areas by wednesday with showers and the possibility of longer spells of rain most likely here. Showers will probably be around for much of the uk aswell though but sunshine at times. The outlook for later next week seems similar more emphasis on lows moving right over the uk, particularly western, central and southern parts of England keeping it unsettled but probably remaining less cold than this week.