Jordan S

Pretty good agreement on a disturbance moving through tonight bringing some sleet and snow perhaps to parts of northern Ireland later this evening then to southern Scotland perhaps northern England overnight but there is uncertainty in the placement atm. Gem.. GFS.. Hirlam.. Icon.. Elsewhere wintry showers some perhaps quite heavy. Also more organised showery rain from the disturbance likely pushing across the south and southeast during this evening and the early part of the night windy with this.

A big change in output from various models from showing potentially a significant storm system on Monday night to now a small disturbance bringing an enhancement of showers across England and Wales on Monday night into Tuesday it shows quite well one or two details can change the whole scenario, it looks as though the low in question stays in the Atlantic with only a small segment of energy from this moving into southern UK or France during Monday night bringing more organised showery rain with a small chance of hill snow eastwards here into Tuesday morning which I mentioned yesterday too. GFS.. The remnants of that low likely to merge with further low pressure systems at the end of next week. Upto Wednesday looking very showery with the lows to the north of the UK greatly influencing our weather with most showers for Western and northern areas where some snow is possible especially on high ground, further disturbances may form in the northwesterly flow to bring more organised rain sleet and snow further south too but that will be something to look at closer to the time. It looks likely that things will become milder by the latter part of next week with more widespread wet and windy weather this likely to continue to day 10.

Models have definitely trended away from a very deep low for Monday and instead limit its development as a wave depression the energy seems to be separated in the mid Atlantic one going south into Spain/France the other moving over southern England bringing heavy rain mabye some wintriness on hills if this is modelled to be further north in coming days then the risk of snow for more Northern areas as well as strong winds for the south still something to keep an eye on. Ecmwf.. Gfs.. Ecmwf and Gfs show this developing into a more closed area of low pressure once it leaves the uk. Gem.. Keeps the low south of the uk with lows to the north being the dominant feature for all bringing disturbances across the UK with heavy rain and perhaps some snow on the northern edge of these. Still uncertainty atm so details likely to change frequently in the next day or so regarding that lows depth track.

Haven't posted for a while but anyway back with updates. So the next few days look settled for most except the far north but there will be a lot of cloud around with limited sunshine the very strong high pressure responsible for this dry, quiet, foggy and frosty spell is slowly weakening and declining southwards with Atlantic weather systems beginning to push their weather fronts southwards across the country.. This transition takes place during the weekend with breezier weather for all with some rain mostly light in places but its next week that things look like turning very unsettled perhaps stormy once again.. Here's the jetstream forecast from the Gfs for Sunday and Monday.. A strong jetstream developing and an area of low pressure is shown to develop quite rapidly by most models as it approaches the uk on Monday bringing rain for all but some very strong winds across parts of the country.. There is disagreement in whether this tracks to the Northwest of Scotland or through central parts of England and this is important as with quite cold upper air temperatures there would be the risk of snow on the northern edge of this system that risk is most likely for Scotland and Northern Ireland but no point discussing any more detail as its a few days away here's a snapshot of the Gfs, Gem and Ecm on this.. GFS.. Wind gusts mph.. Ecm.. Keeps this system as more of a wave depression so not particularly deep until leaving the UK but a very tight pressure gradient bringing potentially damaging gusts of wind to England and Wales. Ecmwf wind gusts.. Gem.. The Gem shows this low intensifying very quickly with the central pressure dropping to a very intense 921 millibars almost certainly overdone and is furthest north with this. Although the Gfs does drop the pressure of this system later to just under 935 millibars but ofcourse central pressure to be determined nearer the time. The Gem also shows a secondary deep low but further south across England and Wales bringing a stormy midweek period. The Gfs less strong with the winds for Mondays system compared to the Gem and Ecm. The weather front also likely containing another sqaull line. For the rest of next week good agreement on wet and windy weather continuing although colder air from the Northwest may give some wintriness to showers in any quieter interludes, and with a jetstream forecast like this then secondary features bringing further heavy rain and very strong winds is quite likely. Wednesday.. Thursday.. Friday.. Here's the Gfs Gem and Ecm combined for upto day 10 the unsettled theme is maintained with significant cold unlikely but short colder interludes may give some snow for northern areas but mostly on hills. 28th.. 30th.. 1st February..

Strong Winds slowly easing for most during this evening and overnight but rain and in some places heavy, will continue for southern parts for a few hours moving slowly eastwards and effecting Eastern areas later this evening, clearing away during the early hours to the east but heavy showers following behind in some places, dry spells too.. winds likely to become very strong for the western Isles of Scotland later this evening and for a time tonight gusting 50-60mph here perhaps reaching 70mph this swathe of very strong winds transferring to Shetland later tonight into tomorrow gusts of 50-60mph perhaps a little more here for a time. Icon.. Tomorrow looks calmer for most but a disturbance running across the southern portion of England and wales bringing showery rain perhaps a little wintriness in this on hills west to east through the day with some fairly gusty winds associated with this at times mostly dry elsewhere except Scotland with wintry showers around here. As for the weekend and beyond high pressure looks set to build ofcourse with a central pressure of around 1048 millibars a very intense high which will be sat over the southern part of the UK in particular but influencing the weather for all with much drier weather light winds and frost and fog in places into next week too by the middle and the end of next week signs are high pressure will move westwards with some unsettled weather effecting the north but with northwesterly winds likely then temperatures won't be particularly mild and some snow mostly on hills further north is possible. Monday next week.. Tuesday.. Thursday.. 25th.. 26th..

Morning. An update on todays very wet and also stormy weather for southern, central and Eastern areas for late afternoon, evening and overnight. Arome.. 2pm.. 4pm.. 6pm.. 8pm.. Very strong winds developing widely for England and Wales at first then through the latter part of this afternoon into this evening for more central southern and Eastern regions with gusts for a few hours of between 50-60mph likely in many places Inland perhaps between 60-70mph along parts of the coast, the strongest winds likely in association with another very squally cold front set to move erratically northeast during the latter part of this evening and overnight for southern and central England with a fairly narrow line of particularly heavy perhaps torrential rain developing, this very slowly moves east southeast through southeastern England overnight as a wave develops on this front with it not clearing the far east until after mid morning tomorrow. The winds will ease markedly for western and central parts of England after midnight but stay very strong for southeast England with gusts continuing around 50mph widely until dawn before easing slowly here. Midnight.. 2am.. Rainfall forecast.. 10pm.. Midnight.. 3am.. 5am.. 11am.. As much as 15-25mm likely to accumulate quite widely altogether for England and Wales perhaps 30-40mm for some areas south of the m4. For the rest of the week the weather remains largely unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds on Thursday but then after this a strong area of high pressure will build close to and over the uk for the weekend bringing much more settled and drier conditions still some showers around for the north mainly with this being wintry for Scotland with overnight frost and fog patches, this seems likely to continue early-mid next week particularly for southern parts but in 8-10 days time high pressure declining southwards with a more unsettled Atlantic flow coming back in winds perhaps from a more northwesterly direction by this time. 19th.. 20th.. 22nd.. 23rd.. 24th..

I think you'll get some impressive gusts speeds this afternoon and evening.

Some interesting outputs for over a week away have been appearing but the chance of a long lasting cold spell in the next 8-14 days from now is looking unlikely so while the output from various models have shown higher pressure to the west with a northerly that scenario is currently looking unlikely but Woudn't rule it out obviously atm. Anyway back to the short term, a very deep area of low pressure set to move to the west of Scotland during tomorrow ofcourse and some heavy snow for higher parts of Scotland especially the mountains from the weather front associated with the storm which will be very active with a squall line developing within the back edge of the rain, wind gusts widely for England of 45-50mph later in the afternoon but perhaps 55mph in places on the back edge. Gusts over 60mph for the far West of Wales and southwest England possible. gusts of 70-80mph likely for the Irish sea. 60+mph for many parts of northern Ireland and Ireland, 80-90mph is possible for the western isles of Scotland later tomorrow depending on the exact proximity the area of strongest winds are around the low centre. Anyway that all moves through tomorrow night with heavy wintry showers for parts of western Scotland this may fall as snow to some lower levels too. Then for tuesday we have this vigorous system here.. Wind gusts.. This system bringing a stormy afternoon and evening on Tuesday for many parts of England and Wales with gusts of 50-60mph inland this accompanied by rain that will be heavy and persistent in places that pushes into England, Wales, Ireland and fringing into northern Ireland, southern and possibly central Scotland with snow on higher ground here on the northern side, then we have the cold front that is set to try and move to the east during Tuesday night but ripples moving along this keep the rain continuing for England with some very heavy rain in association with another squall line possible this perhaps taking until after dawn on Wednesday to clear the far southeast along with the very strong winds. Tuesday is looking much quieter with lighter winds for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Yes very strong wind gusts on Tuesday for England and Wales.

The centre of the pretty intense storm system for Monday moves fairly close to the west of Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday afternoon with the strongest winds moving into Western and northwestern Scotland later Monday very strong winds everywhere else particularly in association like I said yesterday with the narrow band of very heavy rain expected to develop within the weather front associated with this storm. Wind gusts.. Here's the jetstream forecast for the same time frame..

Likely to be a narrow line of very heavy rain developing within tomorrow's frontal system as it moves slowly southeastwards across the country during tomorrow afternoon for more Northern areas and into the evening and overnight through England and Wales possibly a delay in the clearance of the rain for more southern counties as the frontal system possibly develops a wave along it, this all accompanied ofcourse by very strong winds in the north with gusts like I mentioned this morning of close to 60mph in places pennines will likely see higher gusts then widely 30-40mph for England and Wales perhaps higher over the higher parts of North Wales upto 50-60mph here through tomorrow afternoon and night although a chance of a little higher than 40mph for England in that narrow band of the heaviest rainfall this should clear to the east of the UK by mid morning Sunday with wintry showers for parts of Scotland and also an area of heavy showery rain likely moving into Wales during Sunday morning then possibly through central parts by the middle of the day, elsewhere drier with sunny spells but breezy. Arpege.. With Mondays deep storm system set to move northeast to the west of Scotland the frontal system from that also likely to develop a narrow band of very heavy rain with much higher gusts associated with this with more general outbreaks of rain around it very windy everywhere with gales in places and Some heavy snow likely for higher parts of Scotland particularly the mountains with this frontal system.. this all pushes eastwards clearing most Eastern areas after midnight, although it may take longer to clear for the far southeast into Tuesday morning.. Wintry showers effecting Scotland particularly western parts of Scotland after the clearance as colder air moves in this may fall to some lower levels too. Arpege.. Gem.. Tuesday afternoon and possibly into Wednesday morning looking likely to be stormy for England and Wales with more heavy rain but will cover this tomorrow.

A quieter day today but more unsettled weather on the way. During tonight into tomorrow a low in the Atlantic will deepen and move over Iceland but its associated weather fronts bring a spell of very wet weather tonight into tomorrow for Western Scotland in particular with northern Ireland having some heavy and persistent rain throughout tomorrow too this then transfers southwards with parts of northwest England and perhaps northwest Wales receiving some high rainfall totals as much as 40-60mm is shown for these areas especially on hills with as much as 70-100mm in western Scotland this all accompanied by a very strong wind with gales particularly in exposure with gusts upto 60mph perhaps more on the pennines.. Further south although it will be mainly dry tomorrow during the day it will be windy with gusts of 30-40mph. The rain then effecting England and Wales overnight tomorrow clearing during Sunday morning this accompanied by some strong perhaps squally winds before it clears.. Colder behind All this with wintry showers on Sunday mainly for Scotland. GFS.. Tomorrow night.. Wind gusts.. Early next week as I said a few days ago still looking very unsettled with an area low pressure exiting newfoundland set to deepen significantly as it approaches the Uk bit of uncertainty how close the centre will get but rain spreading across all through Monday with very strong winds perhaps gales in places. Here's the jet stream for Monday.. But its a low developing just to the south of that storm that's worth keeping an eye on.. A very strong jetstream above it and with that the potential for a rapidly developing low as it potentially crosses the uk on Tuesday bringing not only more rain but the risk of widespread gales for England and Wales. Here the Gem, Gfs and Ukmo on that system.. Gem.. GFS.. Ukmo.. Throughout the rest of next week like I mentioned a couple days ago with a jetstream continuing to be strong across the Atlantic into the UK the weather will remain unsettled with more wet and windy spells mabye another deep low at the end of next week again. A blend of the Ecmwf, Gem and Ecm output below.. Wednesday 15th.. 16th.. 17th.. So upto the end of next week it's unsettled and mostly mild although colder air will effect the uk at times with some wintry showers for Scotland perhaps more significant snow on high ground on the northern edge of systems moving in. 18th.. 20th.. Then by next weekend to day 10 signs now of high pressure ridging northeast over the uk bringing a quiter drier and colder spell for a time although signs are it won't last too long before milder westerly winds return but that's too far out for much confidence now.

The Gfs and Gem as well as other models still mostly in agreement this morning with the low for tuesday. Atm It's looking like a very potent low which will be deepening as it crosses the uk.

@Blessed Weather It looks like the stall will happen through the south Midlands to northern parts of East anglia it also looks like the front will stay very active for the evening.

Here's the Ukmo, Gem and Icon on the system for tuesday.. Icon.. Ukmo.. Gem.. They are clearly all In good agreement atm with that potential deep low. Ofcourse the main low that moves across the Atlantic on Monday develops into an intense storm system which we have previously discussed and although the centre now is shown to stay to the west its associated weather fronts ensure a very windy and wet start to next week for all.

Aswell as being very wet in places through tonight especially for central and northern areas of England and Wales its also likely to become very windy for many parts of England and Wales tonight with a risk of gales in a few places, gusts widely inland of 35-45mph are likely with the chance of locally 50-55mph in exposed areas especially in coastal areas, the strongest winds transferring to Eastern England by tomorrow mid morning along with the main area of heavy rain and mostly hill snow a chance of this falling to lower levels for a time for the far north of England possibly southern Scotland. A big temperature contrast between northern England and the rest of central and southern England by the end of the night with 11 or 12c tonight with 1-4c for the north.

Merely for interest purposes only especially as its for 9 days away but the Nasa Geos5 model earlier this morning showed a rather similar scenario albeit with this low developing into a very intense feature bringing more of a wind threat but snow too. Westerly or southwesterly winds will likely be in control at this stage with low pressure to the west so this scenario very unlikely to happen.

Morning. A wet evening and night to come for England and Wales some heavy bursts of rain at times from a developing low and as this pushes into northern England and perhaps southern Scotland then a risk of some mainly hill snow later tonight. some of this rain may push into northern Ireland, Turning windy for England and Wales with a risk of gales in exposure. After this area of rain clears into the north sea tomorrow morning another spell of heavy rain likely to move across the south during tomorrow evening. 10-20mm widely falling altogether throughout this period perhaps upto 30mm in parts of the south. The trend for the next week to 10 days has not changed much since yesterday or indeed the last few day's next week starts stormy for all and Very wet then continuing unsettled thereafter possibly into next weekend, remaining mostly mild although with colder air in the Northwest at times the possibility of some snow mainly for Scotland and over hills but with a very mobile set up there will be drier and calmer interludes between low pressure systems.

The low you mention is still shown. Midnight Thursday.. Midday Thursday.. Midnight Friday..

The system for tomorrow night Thursday is still varying a little in intensity and exact positioning especially as the Gem really deepens it but i feel its overdoing this system. I think that the Icon has the best handle on this low and although the track is similar the intensity is much less. On the northern edge of this low there's a possibility of some mostly hill snow this track would take this risk across northern England, perhaps into southern Scotland later tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Outbreaks of quite heavy rain likely to develop through tomorrow evening into the night for central, southern and western areas giving 10-20mm fairly widely, strong winds perhaps gales in exposure accompanying the rain across England and Wales. Looking a little ahead to the weekend it's looking very unsettled particularly for Scotland with the likelihood of further persistent rainfall for Western Scotland for much of Friday night into Saturday this extending into northern England and northern Ireland at times accompanied by some very strong winds in these areas perhaps gusting 60-70mph in a few places, the weather front responsible eventually begins to make its way southeastwards across more of the UK this perhaps forming a wave depression which may delay the clearance of the rain and enhance wind gusts for a time during Saturday for many especially across the pennines behind this for Sunday wintry showers likely for Scotland. A look at the jet stream for this weekend.. Rainfall and synoptic pressure pattern.. Wind gusts Early next week looks very unsettled for the uk.. Jetstream for Monday.. A powerful jetstream just to the east of newfoundland and moving into the north Atlantic will aid in rapid cyclogeneses such as with this low for Monday.. bringing potentially a stormy spell to all early next week along with more persistent rain but as its a very mobile pattern there will be drier and brighter days especially for central and southern areas. Towards day 10 If we put the Ecmwf, Gem and Gfs average output together.. Likely to remain mostly mild and unsettled.

The developing storm that has its centre move across Iceland today will continue intensifying gradually throughout today into tonight with the Gfs showing pressure dropping to a very low 934 milibars as it moves close by or over the Norwegian sea with this comes a second swathe of very strong winds which will effect Shetland tomorrow with gusts of 60-70mph before easing tomorrow afternoon. Icon has it at 938 milibars you can see the extent of those very strong winds just to the north of Scotland well by tomorrow morning.

Here's the Ecm day 10. Another view of it Gem out on its own with the high cell to the north. Upper air temperatures between 8-10 days.. Rain/snow..

I know that but note I said higher ground, the risk for more lower levels is there which is why I posted. For the time being there's no sign of the deep cold and widespread snow that many want in fact the outputs atm are very mild for the most part over the next 10 days anyway.

I think some people are so fixated with searching for raging Easterly winds and - 85c uppers in the extended model output that they forget what's right under their noses.. A risk of snow for northern areas on Thursday mainly over higher ground but its snow nevertheless.

Mentioned this the other day. Anyway Here's the Gfs on that storm system early next week.. Gfs shows Lowest Central pressure in this storm to be 936 milibars.