Jordan S

In summary, next week unsettled though less so than recently. wet and windy occasionally for many but typical conditions for early November with temperatures on the chillier side to begin the week, turning milder to end. Breezy and showery for some to start the week next week, but some drier spells for some too, by Tuesday night a weather front moves into western areas and moves east into Wednesday accompanied by fairly strong winds of 30-40mph inland possibly 50mph around a few western coasts for a time but of course not extreme and short lived. Turning drier in the south on Thursday and perhaps for a time on Friday but remaining unsettled for Scotland but not excessively so with drier and sunnier interludes here, temperatures rising slightly for most. Then next weekend and beyond in the lead up to mid November, there are hints of another stormy period with the risk of a rapidly developing system moving through central or northern areas of England bringing very strong winds to England and Wales, worth keeping an eye on, a successor to this system may be a more mature low swinging southeast over Scotland bringing gales for them too. Rainfall doesn’t look excessive but could still cause problems for some, generally wettest in the south of England and western England and Wales with eastern and northeastern areas less wet than recently.

UKV and Icon models and to a lesser extent ECMWF did extremely well in forecasting the development and track of this ferocious storm as the calm centre tracked across the far south of England, as opposed to the slightly more likely centre track being west to east close to the south coast until northeast from sort of Isle of Wight area northeast through London or a touch further to the north. But considering how consistent these two models (UKV and Icon) both where and to a lesser extent ECMWF with the precise track of this storm, they where always on reliability most likely to be correct, especially with UKV model generally being one of the best performing models for the uk, understandably so. Met office done excellent for the most part with the warnings. Looks like the strongest storm since probably 1987 for the Channel Islands, top isolated gust of 129mph around exposed northwest France.. what an extraordinary storm, this would be severe for the northern isles let alone places usually so sheltered from storms of lesser intensity than this one. With even a fairly significant tornado being involved. Truly exceptional and I’m sure for the Channel Islands it will be remembered from many for a long old time. South of England really did get very lucky with this, slight changes in the development of this storm could of very easily steered it further northeast and fairly ominous to be aware of that as a possibility even though a low one less than 24 hours before it arrived. next low brings very strong winds to northern Spain and western France tomorrow though nothing on the severity of storm Ciaran with gusts to 50-60mph and exposed parts of northern Spain/western France possibly seeing the 60- 70mph gusts for a time causing some potential damage and disruption for these parts especially as these winds being not that common for them.

Wind gusts really do look truly exceptional for the Channel Islands tomorrow night with violent gusts to 90-110mph for a time, although south coast looks to miss the worst, 75-85mph in the far southwest of England and possibly 70-80mph in the far southeast of England especially on the exposed coast really is not something to overlook and will certainly cause some big problems and some significant damage to trees in particular with many being blown down and some damage to buildings particularly tiles coming off some roofs and damage to gutters. Arpege.. Even with the most southerly tracking options such as UKV there still will be a swathe of very strong winds probably moving northeast inland over the rest of southwest England and definitely over some inland areas of central/southern England with gusts still likely to reach 50-55mph for a time though this not occurring until later Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.. with 40-50mph tomorrow night before a lull then those stronger gusts move through later Thursday as the low moves away. so could be local tree damage further north from the coast and disruption albeit far less severe than it could of been inland had the low of been modelled 100-150 miles further north. Probably about a 5-10% possibility of that kind of shift north in reality so very low though it still exists, with 90% that the extremely strong winds remain over the far southwest from a northwesterly direction and the far south and southeast close to and along the coast from a southerly direction tomorrow night ahead of the worst of the storm,then a southwesterly direction, with storm force or severe storm force mean winds over the channel and Channel Islands by then and possibly over mainland northwest France. Historic wind storm for a few, problematic wind storm for others and soaking wet with flooding for some.

I think the above fax charts where yesterday’s update, this one below seems to be the updated one today for Thursday, storm more elongated, strongest winds for channel and south coast but all of the south at risk of some damaging winds if track is shifted slightly northwest of this in the coming days which seems more likely of course. Seems to be three possibilities for inland England and to a lesser extent Wales. The most likely being periods of gust in excess of 50mph inland as already been said, with 70-80mph isolated 90mph in exposed coastal parts as has been mentioned particularly also by the met office. A Less likely outcome being relatively light winds for most of the time inland southern England except for the initial band of rain and southerly winds, with very heavy rain being the main problem due to centre of storm passing over the south excluding the south coast. Least likely outcome of very damaging wind gusts of 70+mph inland over the south with 100mph worryingly close to the south coast and certainly over the English Channel. Regardless this storm looks likely to cause big problems for the south coast atm. But worth watching closely for the rest of southern England 50-55mph with trees in full leaf and saturated ground really is significant and rather damaging. here’s the latest Gfs for the storm. The next deep low moving into far southern parts by Friday/Saturday time will only exacerbate problems but this primarily a rain maker with the strongest winds over southwestern coasts and over France.

Yes, those wind readings are km/h. Again 50-60mph being very likely inland across England and perhaps Wales on Thursday with localised gusts possibly close to 70mph. Gusts along the west coast and particularly south coast of England of 65-80mph possible. Isolated gusts to 90mph a possibility. A significant wind storm. With some very heavy and persistent rainfall for many, particularly for southern England and Wales with squally winds possibly accompanying the heavy band of rain to the south of the storms centre. Easily 20-40mm of rain out of this for many places, more in some areas.

Bit of a late post but certainly looking very unsettled for the most part across all areas for the rest of October and through the first week of November. Showers and longer spells of rain being a frequent occurrence for many parts for the rest of the week and through the weekend, especially for western and southern England, with two main areas of rain and stronger winds moving in on Saturday and Sunday, Saturdays low bringing breezy conditions and heavy rain northeast over England and Wales, turning windy in the south and southeast later Saturday. Winds turning easterly for Scotland on Saturday with prolonged showers turning to sleet or snow on high ground locally, locally heavy rain for southern and eastern facing hills here. Into Sunday another area of rain develops to our southwest and pushes into southern England early Sunday with significant accumulations towards the south coast. Windy in some southern areas with gales locally on exposed southeast coast Into the first half of next week a slow moving low pressure slowly moves east over the central part of the uk bringing showers and longer spells of rain, the heaviest rain being in southern England, western England and southern and eastern Scotland with the continued possibility of sleet and snow on hills/mountains in Scotland along with south easterly to easterly winds for these areas. Then towards the end of next week 1st/3rd November, high pressure to our northeast eases away to allow low pressure systems to move more easily through the UK.. with a particularly intense low set to rapidly deepen just to our west on the 2nd.. The track and subsequent very strong potentially damaging westerly wind gusts probably being further south in reality than the current Gfs shows, so across the England and Wales with Scotland possibly avoiding the worst of the winds. Heavy rain spreads east over much of the country, and although a week away, winds may gust to 50-60mph widely over much of the UK with 70-80mph along coasts with winds possibly in excess of 80mph over western facing coasts, these then turning northwesterly as the low moves eastsoutheast or southeast over the UK. wind gusts.. Rainfall accumulations as a whole in the next 7-10 days look rather significant for southern and western parts of England and Wales in particular with 50-100mm accumulating in some places and 25-50mm more generally for many, so a very wet period to come, the north generally less wet than the south with more frequent dry periods. Temperatures around or slightly below average as a whole. Into the second week of November I feel on balance, unsettled conditions continue for most especially the south and west, so the low pressure systems still on a southerly track with the possibility of gales for some and continued periodic heavy rain bands sweeping across the country, for the north showers look to be the main theme. But one or two days will probably be mainly dry as systems look to move through quicker than the next week or so.

Hi guys, Have been rather busy so haven't had time to really check the weather a great deal, but certainly looking very cold for the time of year for the next few days with around 3 frontal snow possibilities in central and southern England with ongoing snow shower risk in northern and eastern areas, possibly giving a few cm's to low levels.. Certainly some cold uppers over the country at the beginning of this week.. snow probably developing on the back edge of the cold front sweeping south later tomorrow into Tuesday, how much snow differs on the models but I suspect a few locations in central and southern England and Wales could see a few cm's on high ground with a light covering to lower levels before clearing away with isolated snow showers and frost the main theme across the country.. temperatures no higher than 5c with temperatures possibly dipping to -5c in the south on Tuesday night. The cold front clearing through tomorrow night starts a series of secondary lows/waving fronts set to move east/southeast through Wednesday into Thursday giving the risk of significant snow at times to southern and southwest England.. Then the next risk of snow after that in the south being later Thursday into early Friday with a low moving northeast into southwestern areas, giving the potential for several cm's of snow in places, moving erratically northeast so precipitation probably more back to rain in the far southwest.. Then by late Friday early Saturday the next frontal system tries to move in, this will probably make more progress so a transient period of snow seems likely for now for the Midlands,north Wales and anywhere to the north and east, with rain for western and southern areas introducing more of a thaw, Scotland keeps the snow showers.. On balance I think Scotland keeps the cold for the most part over the weekend and into the early part of next week 12th -14th march with further persistent snowfall most likely here due to frontal systems coming up against the block of cold to our north and northeast with the risk of gales and heavy rain in the south. But around mid march as recent output has shown, a trend back to colder and snowier conditions further south are a possibility but featuring more from the east as high pressure could develop over Scandinavia for a time bringing possibly frequent marginal snowfalls to eastern areas but less cold in the west and far south with rain for the most part being the most likely outcome overall with winds tending to be from the southeast I think, probably not as cold as this spell coming, of this doesn't materialize then a very unsettled milder period with rain and strong winds frequently crossing the UK is the lesser likely outcome but with heights still relatively high over the north west and also to our south this time. An interesting couple of weeks to say the least with most weather types being featured, a proper mixed bag but overall a cold/chilly mixed bag. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98450-model-output-discussion-a-cold-start-to-spring/?do=findComment&comment=4817956

Hi guys, Have been rather busy so haven't had time to really check the weather a great deal, but certainly looking very cold for the time of year for the next few days with around 3 frontal snow possibilities in central and southern England with ongoing snow shower risk in northern and eastern areas, possibly giving a few cm's to low levels.. Certainly some cold uppers over the country at the beginning of this week.. snow probably developing on the back edge of the cold front sweeping south later tomorrow into Tuesday, how much snow differs on the models but I suspect a few locations in central and southern England and Wales could see a few cm's on high ground with a light covering to lower levels before clearing away with isolated snow showers and frost the main theme across the country.. temperatures no higher than 5c with temperatures possibly dipping to -5c in the south on Tuesday night. The cold front clearing through tomorrow night starts a series of secondary lows/waving fronts set to move east/southeast through Wednesday into Thursday giving the risk of significant snow at times to southern and southwest England.. Then the next risk of snow after that in the south being later Thursday into early Friday with a low moving northeast into southwestern areas, giving the potential for several cm's of snow in places, moving erratically northeast so precipitation probably more back to rain in the far southwest.. Then by late Friday early Saturday the next frontal system tries to move in, this will probably make more progress so a transient period of snow seems likely for now for the Midlands,north Wales and anywhere to the north and east, with rain for western and southern areas introducing more of a thaw, Scotland keeps the snow showers.. On balance I think Scotland keeps the cold for the most part over the weekend and into the early part of next week 12th -14th march with further persistent snowfall most likely here due to frontal systems coming up against the block of cold to our north and northeast with the risk of gales and heavy rain in the south. But around mid march as recent output has shown, a trend back to colder and snowier conditions further south are a possibility but featuring more from the east as high pressure could develop over Scandinavia for a time bringing possibly frequent marginal snowfalls to eastern areas but less cold in the west and far south with rain for the most part being the most likely outcome overall with winds tending to be from the southeast I think, probably not as cold as this spell coming, of this doesn't materialize then a very unsettled milder period with rain and strong winds frequently crossing the UK is the lesser likely outcome but with heights still relatively high over the north west and also to our south this time. An interesting couple of weeks to say the least with most weather types being featured, a proper mixed bag but overall a cold/chilly mixed bag.

Looking back at yesterday's snow, does look like a few western parts of England did see those snow depths of several cm's and also southeast seeing similar totals, though these highest totals where found more around London and close by surrounding area, thought the highest totals may of been slightly south and southeast of London, But considering the uncertainty over southeast snow, luckily my post /though not the only one, highlighted it fairly well, Arome model also for example doing well. For everyone who lives in these areas, hopefully you enjoyed the snow. Still have some left here, hasn't really melted at all. Referring back to other parts of my previous post and ok no real change, although just re emphasizing the same points really, and adding slight details. A brief milder blip likely for the south and east on Sunday with perhaps a brief snow to rain transition for parts of the Midlands and east Anglia especially, less cold blip for northern England with snow again possibly continuing to fall on hills after lower levels receive freezing rain/snow to then rain, Scotland again almost certainly staying cold. Then we will probably see that cold winter air rushing back southeast soon after the weather front clears early next week, though if it catches up with the front and undercuts then there may be some transition from rain back to snow in places further south. Then probably remaining colder than average for the majority of the UK (southwest may be closer to average) upto the new year though how cold is in question, with a renewed risk of wintry showers, though it is turning drier generally at first anyway. Keep an eye out for that possible Scandinavian high around Christmas or just beyond, if that develops, could not only bring in even colder conditions than we've seen so far and that are expected to follow the brief mild interruption, and that's saying something, but *could* also prolong the wintry/cold spell for the first half of January too. If this doesn't develop, then we may see a trend towards average and/or slightly above average temperatures in the south after the new year with snow more confined for northern areas of England and Scotland, along with wet and windy weather slowly becoming more frequent, especially in the south. Though blocking to our north isn't likely to go away completely especially to our northwest, so these lows would likely be southerly tracking, with temperatures never likely to be particularly mild atm with snow risks to lower levels in the north at times. But this is too far out to know for sure obviously.

A proper update this time, So the focus on snow has largely been for coastal areas of western, northern and eastern areas along with the southwest and parts of the north further inland, but potentially the south of England/southeast and especially south Wales/western England more in focus for potential snow developing tomorrow/Monday in association with a low skirting southeast then east through west, south Wales then along the far south of England tomorrow into Monday. GFS.. Given the rather moist light southeasterly wind that looks to develop in the channel and possibly into southeast England this could enhance snowfall that potentially develops here, perhaps showers at first then the possibility of turning more persistent in southeast England tomorrow evening/night and possibly into Monday morning with western England potentially seeing this more significant snow through daytime, more confidence with this. Arome precipitation.. Development of heavier snow and location is highly uncertain for the southeast but this common knowledge right now. Any highest accumulations look to be either for western England such as Swindon as an example, or for parts of the far south/southeast such as places close by Basingstoke or a little further east. But that is an educated guess atm with all the different options on show. Given the models tendencies to underestimate precipitation totals from small scale features in this set up, what looks most likely "if this develops as expected" is 1-2cm in any patchy showery zones ( such as north Berkshire ) but for the favoured spots I've mentioned above where snow looks to become quite heavy at times including to lower levels and very slow moving, then in the most effected area, the highest totals could be upto 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) to lower levels and upto 15cm (6 inches) on high ground very locally, with far southeast England although much less certain, potentially seeing similar totals but these will almost certainly be isolated totals, not widespread and for many in the main zone, roughly upto 3-8cm will be the main maximum totals in the worst effected places if the precip develops as expected. Snow in the southeast possibly aided by a convergence zone (wind blowing towards each other in a very localised location creating more instability) this would keep the intensity going aswell for the southeast. Arome wind direction.. Ukmo.. Don't take this as gospel but it is plausible. Less likely but most of the precip for southeast England could remain away over the English channel with only spacial light dusting/accumulations from isolated showers. Could also be further brief snow moving northwest over central, southern the western England into Wales just ahead of a low pressure system to our south on Monday evening, taking heavy snow into France. Then by the end of next weekend we see a cyclonic and less cold interlude as said was the more realistic outcome couple weeks ago and has been said recently by others, although ofcourse this change as expected taking place not exactly when I hinted in my post, so this taking place from 18th December as opposed to 14th-15th, but that tends to happen with cold spells. This brings snow/ freezing rain potential briefly to parts of Wales and Northern England the snow then quite likely for Scotland and probably remaining as snow with everywhere else eventually likely getting into air high enough for rain although perhaps hills over north Wales northern England remaining cold enough for it to fall as snow, briefly mild in South. In a very similar evolution to the GFS. But the cold will not be far away (well it's unlikely to leave Scotland) and there's a higher chance than not that we will see colder and more wintery conditions returning southwards once again as shown also by recent model output, likely atm just in time for Christmas, though perhaps emphasis on a Scandinavian high as hinted by a couple other posters and modelling. But this isn't certain ofcourse and other milder unsettled options even though unlikely, remain possible. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4760547

A proper update this time, So the focus on snow has largely been for coastal areas of western, northern and eastern areas along with the southwest and parts of the north further inland, but potentially the south of England/southeast and especially south Wales/western England more in focus for potential snow developing tomorrow/Monday in association with a low skirting southeast then east through west, south Wales then along the far south of England tomorrow into Monday. GFS.. Given the rather moist light southeasterly wind that looks to develop in the channel and possibly into southeast England this could enhance snowfall that potentially develops here, perhaps showers at first then the possibility of turning more persistent in southeast England tomorrow evening/night and possibly into Monday morning with western England potentially seeing this more significant snow through daytime, more confidence with this. Arome precipitation.. Development of heavier snow and location is highly uncertain for the southeast but this common knowledge right now. Any highest accumulations look to be either for western England such as Swindon as an example, or for parts of the far south/southeast such as places close by Basingstoke or a little further east. But that is an educated guess atm with all the different options on show. Given the models tendencies to underestimate precipitation totals from small scale features in this set up, what looks most likely "if this develops as expected" is 1-2cm in any patchy showery zones ( such as north Berkshire ) but for the favoured spots I've mentioned above where snow looks to become quite heavy at times including to lower levels and very slow moving, then in the most effected area, the highest totals could be upto 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) to lower levels and upto 15cm (6 inches) on high ground very locally, with far southeast England although much less certain, potentially seeing similar totals but these will almost certainly be isolated totals, not widespread and for many in the main zone, roughly upto 3-8cm will be the main maximum totals in the worst effected places if the precip develops as expected. Snow in the southeast possibly aided by a convergence zone (wind blowing towards each other in a very localised location creating more instability) this would keep the intensity going aswell for the southeast. Arome wind direction.. Ukmo.. Don't take this as gospel but it is plausible. Less likely but most of the precip for southeast England could remain away over the English channel with only spacial light dusting/accumulations from isolated showers. Could also be further brief snow moving northwest over central, southern the western England into Wales just ahead of a low pressure system to our south on Monday evening, taking heavy snow into France. Then by the end of next weekend we see a cyclonic and less cold interlude as said was the more realistic outcome couple weeks ago and has been said recently by others, although ofcourse this change as expected taking place not exactly when I hinted in my post, so this taking place from 18th December as opposed to 14th-15th, but that tends to happen with cold spells. This brings snow/ freezing rain potential briefly to parts of Wales and Northern England the snow then quite likely for Scotland and probably remaining as snow with everywhere else eventually likely getting into air high enough for rain although perhaps hills over north Wales northern England remaining cold enough for it to fall as snow, briefly mild in South. In a very similar evolution to the GFS. But the cold will not be far away (well it's unlikely to leave Scotland) and there's a higher chance than not that we will see colder and more wintery conditions returning southwards once again as shown also by recent model output, likely atm just in time for Christmas, though perhaps emphasis on a Scandinavian high as hinted by a couple other posters and modelling. But this isn't certain ofcourse and other milder unsettled options even though unlikely, remain possible.

Not really much to add from my previous update, again a very interesting 7-14 days with ice days (temps remaining at or below freezing) in some places and significant snowfall possibilities later next week and onwards, not forgetting a few areas getting some snow tomorrow/Friday. Midweek low next week bringing that risk of significant snow highest over southern and southwestern areas/ unlikely to make much progress north at all/ ECM looks more realistic atm. Will update properly within the next couple of days

ECM wasn't mild though, just a less cold but still wintry alternative. Probably will show an evolution more towards the GFS later though for the second week and what it was showing yesterday with less "mixing" of the uppers with those lows remaining further south, until close to mid month anyway, plenty of showers falling as sleet and snow though by this time, even in the south probably with perhaps more emphasis on sleet/snow falling in any precipitation here from showers/ disturbances too compared with more a rain/snow mix as I thought couple days ago, especially high ground, though not exclusively. Also of note is more persistent and significant snow chance from weather systems coming up from the southwest now looking more likely to take place over western and southern areas of the UK at first with the Greenland high very stubborn and extending close to Scotland keeping the cold entrenched over the country/ with winds from the northeast, before the lows edge slowly further north taking the snow threat north close to mid month as said previously. Basically again rather similar to previous post but heightened snow risk from change from the southwest across southern areas. Previously thought this may be a high ground thing in the south, due to uppers possibly more likely rising ahead of the fronts but I think that's now less likely currently but that's my view.

To be honest even as early as this weekend/early next week, we have the risk of wintry precipitation moving northwest into eastern areas, along with the potential for snow on hills in the north, most likely in heavy precipitation, though it is rain if anything for most, just fairly cold with frost for some. Whilst upper air temps won't be particularly cold for most of next week and may not be supportive of snow for some at first, the 2m temps just keep getting lower as next week progresses and the pattern persists and there's good reason to believe this will take place.. Bar the odd interruption of any rain/sleet from dying weather fronts getting caught/ forming within the flow, there looks to be much drier weather than has been the case recently as well as a very seasonal feeling next couple of weeks, then there looks to be a repeating pattern later next week and onwards of low pressure systems potentially moving north/northeast into the UK from the south/southwest, such as the latter part of the GFS update.. Although this timeframe is unreliable usually, it does seem realistic and plausible that something similar will take place as we approach mid December, could be looking at some very interesting battleground scenarios where some places are in with the chance of seeing some more significant sleet/snow as cyclonic patterns and less cold air (not mild) try to establish over the uk..this actually looks like happening aswell, ofcourse any significant snow from these most likely for the north later in the second week, with less cold following though probably temporarily, for many. Before that change, The main theme and what looks most likely before any possible significant battleground situations close to mid month, is that cold prevales for most, particularly the north of the UK (obviously), with ongoing shower risk for many/ especially for the north, from variable directions mostly from the east/northeast/north, wintry mix to showers further south, though emphasis on dry and cold for many. Low pressure probably taking over the pattern over the whole of the UK for a time by mid month, similar to GFS, with more significant snow possibly effecting northern/northwestern areas along the boundary of stubborn cold over the north of UK/milder air into the south, further south temperatures probably back up close to average for a time with precipitation as rain, one thing looks very likely and that is Scotland atleast probably remaining in air cold enough for snow even in this less cold interlude for the majority of the UK. What happens slightly beyond mid-month? Who knows but with the pattern showing as it is and given how unusual it is to see this in model output in recent times, I would say the pattern is increasingly likely to slowly shift back south/east with low pressure gradually moving away to our southeast bringing drier and colder conditions once again to all, along with lower upper air temperatures compared to the next week or so. A dominant mild southwest airstream with frequent low pressure is very unlikely. Interesting times..

ECM charts for day's 9 and 10 look most likely and more realistic to me, especially in regards to how far north the milder air and rain/hill snow makes its way over England and Wales 5-7th after a colder start to December, Scotland probably remaining within the -5c isotherm or slightly lower with high pressure moving west to the north of us through week 2, which ofcourse then brings the increasing likelihood of a more northeasterly sourced easterly wind, with potential as others have said for something wintry and very cold, with those -10c - 15c 850hpa temperatures getting ever closer to northeastern areas later in week 2 after probably a less cold blip late week 1 into the beginning of week 2. Certainly an unusual outlook for December compared with recent years. 2nd.. 3rd.. 6th.. 7th..

GFS also shows a similar looking low pressure system for 2nd November, likely to be very wet and windy, but the possibility of stormy weather for southern areas if these charts do materialise, interesting track coming more from far to our south than the typical west or southwest. Yeah scrap the higher pressure building close to or over southern areas for the first few days of November. Looking much more mobile and unsettled for all infact more unsettled than the rest of this month.. but turning cooler than recently, again though possibly more northwesterly winds becoming established for the second week of November with wet and windy weather likely to continue, so plentiful rain about even for southern and eastern England, with snow possibly falling for Scotland later on into the second week perhaps to lower levels too in any heavy bursts of precipitation with signs of the continent also cooling down to a more significant degree.

Not just the risk of thunderstorms and further heavy rain this evening over southern and southeast England but also some strong winds, gusts upto 40-50mph possible in the far southeast especially along the coast. Rather impressive upper air temperatures later this week as lows continue to whirl away across the west, leading to potentially a very mild even warm day on Thursday with temps possibly upto 19-22c for central southern and eastern areas of England. Having a curious look into the latter part of the GFS run shows a similar synoptic evolution to the Christmas week over our part of the world with a high drifting southeast from around Iceland trying to introduce cold air southwest. In this instance stopped in its tracks by low pressure systems to our west with the high receding back, but it demonstrates I guess the obvious, that although the continent is very warm for the time of year for most atm. It can and will still rapidly cool down as soon as one or two plunges of arctic air take place, and they probably will within the next few weeks as is normal.

Looking back to my post on 19th September, the extended outlook mentioning low pressure dominating over the UK with higher pressure likely to be more dominant over the northwest Atlantic being very close in terms of time period, although the pattern didn't take place until a few days after the time period I mentioned 7-14th but overall was very close and sometimes good to look back and compare. As for my more recent post, mentioning an absence of southerly winds for the rest of the month... Er ironically southerly winds or winds originating from the south being frequent in the coming days with low pressure out to our west and southwest. So although very unsettled at times as was already expected, it won't be cooler than normal as possibly anticipated in previous post. As said before, being very unsettled for the final 10 days of October with frequent rain for many and needed rain particularly for central, southern and eastern England and strong winds at times, particularly in the south and west towards the end of the month. One such very wet spell this morning over southern, central and then northern/northeastern areas of England with 10-30mm of rain. Further persistent and at times heavy rain running through similar areas tomorrow along with strong winds and possibly coastal gales. Looking into early November, high pressure looks likely to gradually build close to or over southern UK, with the high stationed more likely to our south and east with temperatures likely remaining above normal, though still the chance of some frost in the north. GFS this morning shows a fairly close example though that high over southern UK possibly more likely a tad further southeast than the chart shows with rain still likely to effect parts of the UK but mostly confined to the north especially Scotland with mostly dry or dry conditions more likely developing fairly widely over most of England and Wales for a time, particularly the southeast of England. Perhaps the high declining once again allowing more unsettled weather into all areas later on into the second week of November with temperatures lowering slightly as colder northwesterly winds perhaps take hold.

The south will ofcourse see a lengthier period of unsettled conditions starting from the 11th or 12th, but we also have one area of low pressure in particular to keep a close eye on and its this smaller one below.. Although the GFS shows a southerly tracking low, the potential is there for a potent low pressure system to swiftly cross England and Wales bringing the possibility of widespread gales and heavy persistent rainfall towards the end of next week 13th/14th. Heavy rain will effect parts of England and Wales regardless of how deep the low is I think. This system then lingers over the UK and the north sea in the few days after, bringing in numerous heavy showers fairly widely with occasional longer spells of rain from a northwest direction that drift over the high to our west into this lows circulation. Ofcourse we are talking about over a week away so details may change slightly but the high to our west and southwest, likely to remain for several days beyond mid-month , GFS almost certainly a bit too amplified with high to our west though. low pressure systems will move through over the whole of the UK from that northwest direction overall towards the 21st October with an increasing risk of occasional gales, perhaps especially for the north/northeast and/or southwest of the UK. The chance of one or two short but quite potent northerly winds are possible too around 17th-21st which would then give colder than average conditions for all and the chance of snow to lower levels of northern Scotland briefly. Well beyond the reliable but a higher likelihood high pressure remains to our west and southwest into the final 10 days of October, hints of it pulling out even further southwest at the beginning of these last 10 days bringing in a near continues bout of wet and windy weather towards the end of the month, the lows often coming from northwest then moving southeast still, most likely becoming steadily colder too with a notable absence of winds from the south upto and through this period with snow on hills in Scotland. There will be the odd day of drier conditions everywhere in between systems ofcourse, with showers around but equally some sunshine too and the possibility of fog and frost increases in some areas in the quieter interludes. Perhaps at some point in the last week of this month 24th onwards the high centres more to our south than west southwest, with temperatures slowly rising back up but it does look to remain very unsettled at times especially by then mainly in the north but probably not exclusively. Overall a much more sustained cyclonic/unsettled outlook over the UK than for some considerable time. Will update again next week.

Bit of an earlier update but almost purely focusing on this low pressure for Tuesday/Wednesday, though this low wasn't shown as much of a significant system on Thursday, mainly as a wave depression (no fully closed centre until into Scandinavia) . Anyway, rate of development of this system is as follows.. slow through Monday to the southwest of the UK attached along the weather front of Monday/Tuesday's low pressure system centred close to Iceland, a fairly big temperature contrast which will help kick start this lows development.. The low pressure passing to our northwest close to Iceland later Monday into Tuesday was previously modelled as being just off the northwest of Scotland so now limiting gales way offshore instead, still going to have the rain crossing Scotland in association with that low pressure system early on Tuesday. Then as the secondary low shown below begins crossing the UK, the development speeds up so a fairly quick wind increase along its southern flank by 10-20mph within a few hours. Very heavy rain crosses northern Ireland and Scotland Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the weakening cold front pushing southeast across the whole of England and Wales, heavier over Wales, weakening over the rest of England as higher pressure is still hanging on to an extent, limiting rainfall here. Wind gusts of typical autumnal low pressure values, 35-45mph with more in exposure, such as the coasts and hills. Along eastern areas of England and perhaps also southeast parts of Scotland, gusts likely to reach 50-60mph before quickly easing by Wednesday afternoon. Development of the low pressure system speeds up further as it exists the UK into the north sea with the central pressure dropping to around 965-970mb turning into a significant autumn storm, with wind gusts along its southern flank by the time it's over the north sea of atleast 70-85mph, this low then will impact Scandinavia, particularly Norway. In it's wake, very showery in the northwest, with some "weak" thunderstorms likely over western parts of Scotland and northern Ireland, anything severe is unlikely, though some showers could be torrential briefly.

A very active frontal system tomorrow ofcourse, giving very wet conditions for northwestern areas, quite wet further south too with a good 5-15mm for many places here, more in the north and west. Very windy for many, though nothing unusual about this ofcourse with gusts no higher than 40-45mph in the more exposed locations over central and southern areas of England and more generally 30-40mph, windier in the north with values a bit higher in places particularly in exposure, quite stormy for the western isles though, winds gusting upto 65mph here through the morning. Worth noting this small area of low pressure on the charts below crossing the atlantic, although development is a bit uncertain, the development is likely to be modest, not really far enough north to really engage with the Jetstream, it's probably going to bring further rain into the southwest on Saturday night into Sunday, rain perhaps spreading over other parts of southern England/south Wales briefly, breezy here, possibly quite strong winds from a west/northwest direction developing around the southwest coast of England and possibly southwest Wales too, Drier further north. Then that drier theme for the south for the rest of the first week of October, though perhaps more interrupting wetter interludes here compared with what I thought a couple weeks ago, nevertheless the emphasis is on a drier few days for the southern half of the UK. As have said previously before, the unsettled conditions in the north continuing, though also the potential for gales over the northern isles from this deep low pressure just to our west/ northwest for Tuesday. Although the strongest winds probably going to remain away slightly to the northwest, it will still be very windy here along with wet conditions at times on Tuesday. High pressure remains to our south and particularly southwest extending into southern parts of UK, and this will be the case into week 2. As for week 2, It probably won't be a low pressure dominated pattern over the whole of the UK throughout which I thought would be the case, but low pressure probably continuing to effect Scotland, northern Ireland and possibly northern England as we go through the second week of October at times, with high pressure over the south most of the time period, quite likely turning very unsettled over northern areas once again though towards mid month, with gales/severe gales possible, large rainfall accumulations too here by then, especially northwest Scotland. By the end of the second week so days 12th/14th October high pressure looks to retreat slightly more to our southwest bringing those more persistent unsettled conditions further south over southern areas too, so to be honest the low pressure pattern becoming established over the whole of the UK I mentioned previously, is just being delayed by a few days, winds will probably be westerly for most of the time, but ofcourse there will be the odd drier and sunnier day for many, bringing just a few showers in-between each system from the west northwest and these could be wintry over Scottish hills/mountains as temperatures lower slightly. Anyway have a good rest of the day guys and will update again at some point next week.

An update to my previous outlook post on Monday, and to be honest the most likely outlook for the end of the month through the first week into the second week of October is largely unchanged. But there are a few smaller changes. What hasn't changed.. 1. Is the expected continuation of northerly/northwesterly winds across the country for the last few days of the month aswell as low pressure largely over the north sea producing the most showers over northern and eastern areas along with cooler than average temperatures. 2. A drier first few days of October across southern half of UK is still most likely along with changeable conditions expected to remain in the north, again with westerly winds returning. I'm purposely using the 12z GFS below as I feel that shows the more likely placement of the high over southern areas, but either way, that update and this update still show the drier theme for the south just details differ as you'd expect a week away. What HAS changed from my previous outlook for the end of the month... One or two smaller disturbances expected to run east/southeast over the top of the large high to our west bringing the risk of more persistent rain/showers into the west and south. What also hasn't changed I feel.. High pressure most likely to slip to our west/southwest through the second week of October, allowing the Jetstream and subsequently a low pressure dominated pattern to develop through the north Atlantic and more specifically close to across the UK, with a continued higher likelihood that this will be more a northwest to southeast alignment of the Jetstream and low pressures that cross the Atlantic and through the UK atleast for a time, especially again with higher pressure probably more dominant over northwestern parts of the atlantic with temperatures back up to around average and frequent rain, some of it heavy along with strong winds. Though again, the Jetstream periodically expected to become disorganized with northerly winds more likely than average during this second week, bringing the possibility of colder temperatures and more snow to Scottish mountains and possibly slightly lower levels too here, of course with this another high moving back to the west of us would take place to bring us those brief northerlies. The last paragraph really a virtual repeat of what I said on Monday. But of course second week of October is a while away and a lot to get through synoptically speaking before we get to the second week of October.

Although the weather front moving southeast later this week across the UK won't bring very wet conditions for most except for perhaps parts of the west northwest, it's likely to fragment into showers over England and Wales and some of these could still be heavy bringing some decent rainfall accumulations for some here. GFS.. ECMWF model I feel is the closest to the likely synoptic pattern towards the end of the month with less influence from low pressure and slightly further east than the GFS so will post the chart below.. The main theme at the end of the month being average or cooler than average temperatures for all with a tendency for low pressure to move southeast across northern and eastern parts of the UK, probably drier for the west/southwest. Low pressure mainly over the North sea with spells of rain/showers occasionally, some more snow quite likely over the mountains in Scotland. High pressure remaining out to the west a lot of the time keeping the wind direction to the north to northwest. ECMWF.. Into the first week of October there looks most likely to be some drier weather for a few days over western and southern half of the UK mainly, still a bit changeable over the north of the UK, winds turn more to the west. This GFS ensemble chart below is a broad example of this, though that high more to the west/southwest beyond this timeframe. Although into unreliable timeframes now, I will have a go describing the more likely weather slightly beyond the opening days of October. A low pressure dominated pattern further into the second week of October is increasingly likely, high pressure that previously dominates areas over the central part of the north Atlantic to the west of us probably moving further south more towards the Azores bringing the Jetstream further south across the Atlantic and through the UK with the more typical unsettled autumn pattern for the UK arriving, though probably more northwest to southeast with the trajectory, especially with higher pressure more likely to be dominant over the northwest Atlantic, rain especially from organised weather fronts likely to feature more frequently than has been the case for several months bringing more much needed rainfall for some areas of England and Wales which is also likely to be heavy at times too, winds probably strong at times, temperatures also close to average by then, unlikely to warm up significantly with these more westerly winds with the jetstream likely to become disorganized periodically, northerly winds more likely than average for this time period, and certainly wouldn't rule out snow to more modest levels of Scotland at some point in the first half of October. Will give another update on Friday.

Although the Arome is one of the only models going for significant accumulation of rain over southern counties of England later today into tomorrow morning it is more likely than others that don't bring anymore than 20-25mm for isolated spots. Although most models eventually bring persistent rain into most southern parts, they still differ in intensity and position, the Arome probably closest to what will happen. With some heavy and persistent rainfall over southern and southeastern counties lasting several hours from later this afternoon onwards, mainly London southwards/southeastward but areas slightly north of London still likely to see some rain at times though amounts likely to be smaller. 7pm.. Midnight.. 6am tomorrow morning.. Although Arome possibly slightly over the top with accumulation, The wettest areas are still likely to see 30-50mm accumulating by tomorrow morning for example for Hampshire. Fairly widespread 10-20mm elsewhere for the south though, with sporadic torrential bursts/thunderstorms possible overnight. Rain that is indeed still needed for some.

I don't think the Ukv/GFS is over doing temps for Monday or Tuesday for the most part for central southern and eastern areas.. those are very plausible temperatures. And would certainly not rule out those sneaky maximums of 41c in one or two places in the east Midlands eastern England area, that really would be phenomenal, perhaps 40-50% of this figure being reached somewhere atm so higher than thought a couple days ago. Most likely for this to be on Tuesday, though 38-39c very likely to be a fairly widespread maximum temperature for central, southern and eastern areas of England, with a high chance of 40c for a few spots. Comparing temperatures probably better suited to tomorrows maximums when the heat really gets underway. Maximums probably look like reaching 33c locally. Tomorrow.. Monday.. Tuesday..