Frostbite1980
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Everything posted by Frostbite1980
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not a great UKMO at all to be brutally honest, any further movement South and it will be a normal cold spell rather than an epic one -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO seems to be pushing the coldest air into France to me -
Accuweather really make me laugh with their seasonal forecasts for Europe - Not even a mention of a very cold start to spring but more an enphasis on wind storms as they call them https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-europe-spring-forecast-severe-weather-to-target-eastern-and-central-europe-shift-to-drier-warmer-weather-from-uk-to-france-and-spain/70004191
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Come on peeps no one knows what snow potential there is yet and this is the model thread not snow watch.....talking of which the GFS will start churning out shortly and hopefully it doesn’t blow up the Scandinavian high as much this time round -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Starts at 9.30 -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If they show the same as the Aperge I think I will give that a miss lol -
Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lol that looks like Mr Burns out of the Simpsons.......seriously though -16’s about to cross the North Sea -
SST’s are above average on the east coast including the SE corner. That combined with upper air temperatures of below -10 and a strong easterly wind is a recipe for large convective snow showers and that’s even before we talk about Thames/Wash streamers. If this easterly (as long as it develops as currently shown) is dry I will run round my local park with my pants on my head! http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.2.19.2018.gif
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It could back track ? -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Blue is it the huge temperature gradient that is blowing up that Iberian low? It seems to blow up really quickly and that is the only explanation I can think of as to why? -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Snow to rain and back to snow again unless it goes due east then all snow. If it moves north east it will bring milder uppers to the south of the UK at least before moving away and dragging colder air back south again. Not that it is going to happen any way but the 6z had a similar scenario but a lot shallower so you never know! -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There have not been many op runs that show this evolution so lets just wait and see where the mean sits before people start reaching for the Prozac. To be fair even if there is a major shift in the mean it would seriously put doubt it my mind how reliable anything is model wise is this current period of teleconnections and background signals as they have been so steadfast up to this point. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To be fair when FI begins at T96 small changes at T48 will make all the difference if this circumstance. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The low in the mid Atlantic is a lot deeper and slightly better ridging north into the west of Scandinavia to my untrained eye? -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Frostbite1980 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion