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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very disturbed, spells of rain or showers on most days, any drier interludes most likely Midlands; limited wintriness[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An exceptionally wet start to February for much of West Wales, already 129mm (over 5 inches) rainfall has fallen which is double what fell in the whole of Februaries 2012 and 2013 and is even at this early stage the wettest February since 2007 (158.4mm). Despite this flooding seems to have been relatively minor locally, with coastal flooding more of a feature than river flooding so far. Undoubtedly one of the wettest spells in the rainfall history of the area, since the start of it all on December 12th 615mm has fallen here in just 60 days! To put this into context the average annual rainfall at Coventry is about 670mm. Nowhere near as wet for the Midlands but nonetheless a wet start to the month, Coventry on 28.2mm as of this morning, which is well over half of the February average.Temperatures last week overall fairly close to the average was sometimes quite mild at other times rather chilly - this being often within the same day given the current volatility of our weather! Snow is still notable by it's absence this Winter although the Brecon Beacons did have a covering first thing on Friday. Strong winds on Saturday, gusts of 79mph at Mumbles, 65mph Aberporth, 55mph Llanwnnen, 54mph Coventry and 52mph at Coleshill, Warwickshire. A very notable feature of this Winter has been the sheer number and frequency of deep lows that have crossed the UK resulting in unusually low atmospheric pressure, besides the quantities of rain and recurring strong winds. Both Wednesday and Saturday saw the barometer fall below 970mbar across Wales and 975mbar across the Midlands, something that may usually only happen once or twice in an typical Winter. In fact at Valley on Anglesey the pressure dropped to 958mbar on Saturday. The Lampeter area and a few other parts of Wales caught a thunderstorm too on Saturday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Little change in the weather for the coming week, continuing very unsettled with further deep lows heading our way - but surely it cannot be as wet here again! Hard to pin down details like timing really such is the speed the systems are being driven across the Atlantic by the Jet Stream, so the wet periods may vary somewhat from is detailed below, suffice to say we will all see spells of wet weather or heavy showers almost daily through the course of this week again, with the Midlands favoured to be less wet than West Wales as the hills continue to suck out the moisture. Quite cold at times too with a chance that some us see a little of the white stuff this week, more especially on Tuesday when colder air is over the UK.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some lively rain and hail showers about Wales today - a few continuing mainly close to coasts through Sunday night but with plenty of dry conditions. Clear spells this evening leading to a fairly widespread ground frost and local air frost, however the South Midlands may cloud over with a little rain late in the night. A ridge of high pressure keeps it fairly dry throughout Monday too, after any early light rain clears the East Midlands, then just the odd shower about chiefly for West Wales. Sunny intervals, light winds and highs of 6 or 7c about average for February. Clearing skies means a ground frost sets in during Monday evening down close to zero for many areas away from the coast. An Atlantic trough moves into Wales during the early hours of Tuesday bringing fairly heavy rain, squally winds and hill snow and which soon sweeps east across the Mildands through by dawn, by which time it is clearing West Wales. As colder air tucks in behind this trough some of the rain may turn to sleet or wet snow at lower levels too for a time, this not expected to lay though except above about 1000 feet, and in case it is cleared away by midday. Sunny intervals and some showers afternoon, again with hill snow, few though getting to the Midlands. Highs on Tuesday a rather cold 4 or 5c with a keen westerly breeze. Another widespread grass frost on Tuesday night as most showers die out, 0c in places, the breeze and some continuing perhaps wintry showers preventing it from falling lower. It may be a dry, bright start to Wednesday - one of those dawns which flatters to decieve. A deepening depression is likely to move into Ireland on Wednesday bringing a further bout of wet and windy weather especially through the afternoon or evening. The exact track and timing still not certain but it has potential to bring more rough weather with attendant wind damage and flooding issues, sleet or snow is possible for higher ground of Wales. Quite a raw feeling day as temperatures may be no higher than 5 or 6c and the rain and wind. It should be clearing to blustery showers during Wednesday night, some of these heavy with hail and thunder with snow over the hills. Winds may lull enough for another ground frost by Thursday morning. Thursday looks like a day of sunny intervals and blustery showers, mostly for the west, and temperatures close to average at 6 or 7c, but with a fresh to strong westerly wind.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A great deal of uncertainty as to detail as we get to the end of the week but it will continue unsettled. For Friday yet another low may end up somewhere over the UK, most likely the south, with more wet and windy weather. Differences in the nature of the beast this far out, but again it could have potential to bring stormy conditions and flooding once more. Rain or showers at times next weekend too, most for the west, with any drier interludes more likely for the Midlands. Very tentative signs that this prolonged highly disturbed weather pattern may relinquish somewhat towards the end of February, so that we may eventually see less in the way of rain with better chances to dry out between as the Jet Stream attempts to edge north of its present highly troublesome track? This probably not enough of a submission to prevent the wettest Winter on record however.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=206775:PPVG89 odd shower.png][attachment=206776:PPVJ89 Tu rain band hill snow am r cold.png][attachment=206777:ecmt850.072 wintry showers perhaps Tu night.png][attachment=206778:PPVL89 eventually wet windy Wed.png][attachment=206779:ecmt850.096 DL cleared to showers midnight Wed.png][attachment=206780:PPVO89 windy showery Th.png][attachment=206781:ecmt850.120 showers Th.png][attachment=206782:h850t850eu another DL FRi.png][attachment=206783:ecmt850.144 flabby channel L Fri.png][attachment=206784:ecmt850.168 unsetteld weekend.png][attachment=206785:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire another wet week.png][attachment=206786:prmslWarwickshire very unsettled week.png][attachment=206787:t850Warwickshire r cold to ave week.png][/size][/font][attachment=206788:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  2. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds at times, some drier, brighter interludes; continued flooding risk; temperatures around average[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A short- lived coldish snap last week, although here in West Wales it was only Thursday that was rather cold with highs of 3 to 5c. It stayed quite cold for a couple of days over the Midlands, and on Thursday many places here did not exceed 2c by day, and there was also a little sleet or snow in places. However contrary to expectations in the prevous guide, it was not overall a cold week but rather worked out around average, and with all the cloud we escaped frosts by and large. At least there were two virtually dry days here on Wednesday and Thursday, the first time this has happened since early December, to give a little respite from the rains, although the Midlands remained damp. Provisionally with a mean 183mm overall, January 2014 has been the wettest over Wales and England in a rainfall series dating back some 250 years! Parts of the southern England and Midlands having three times the average rainfall, at Coventry and Rugby it has been the wettest January since records began in the nineteenth century for example, whilst here at Llanwnnen merely the wettest since 2008 (238mm). January was also a mild month with no hard frosts and was snowless for many. Some monthly rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 236.3mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberporth, Ceredigion: 201.8mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 239.5mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Capel Curig, Snowdonia: 391.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 166.6mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Long Lawford, Rugby: 132.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington, Cotswolds: 195mm approx[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we will see some drier interludes in the coming week the overall theme remains disturbed with a series of deep Atlantic lows with our name on them! This means the prospect of further bouts of heavy rain, localised flooding, and strong, possibly damaging winds. The worst of the weather looks to be during Tuesday night, Wednesday and again on Friday night. Little let up in the exceptionally wet weather well into February it seems, putting us on course for the wettest Winter of the past 250 years too perhaps.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday is a respite day with only scattered showers these chiefly affecting parts of Wales, and all of us seeing some sunny spells. Pleasantly mild at 8 or 9c this afternoon with a bit of a SW breeze. There could be enough clear spells tonight for a ground frost over the Midlands but increasing southerly winds and cloud should prevent this for West Wales. A dry start to Monday for most although the rain soon arriving after dawn across Pembrokeshire. A slow moving band of rain, some heavy then gradually extends across all of SW Wales by midday and onto NW Wales early afternoon, there could be sleet or a little snow for the highest hills. Eventually a wet day then for West Wales, while the rain should not arrive until early evening for the Midlands, so essentially a dry day here with some bright spells. Highs on Monday around average for February at 6 to 8c. A fresh to strong south to SW wind everywhere. The rain clears West Wales by early evening but could linger over the East Midlands until well after midnight. Eventually some clear spells for all leading to a widespread ground frost, minima close to zero, although some showers affecting SW Wales overnight, so staying closer to 3c here. The Midlands not faring badly on Tuesday either, plenty of dry, bright weather and just the odd shower. Sunny intervals for West Wales too at least through the morning, but with occasional showers, some heavy with hail, and then clouding over afternoon. Highs on Tuesday of 6 to 8c again. We should all notice winds increasing through Tuesday afternoon as a significant depression approaches the south of Ireland. This deep low then crosses Ireland through Tuesday night with strong to gale force winds and heavy rain quickly spreading to all of Wales and the Midlands through the evening, and lasting well into the night, with localised flooding prospects by morning, as there could be an inch of rain falling in places - again just cold enough for sleet or snow for the tops of Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons. The south to SW wind looks strong enough to cause some damage through Tuesday night and may reach 80mph for coasts and hills of Wales. Staying very windy throughout Wednesday with gales in places and showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times with the chance of hail and thunder. This may well be another occasion when a tidal surge threatens western coasts, what with the strong SW to west winds, deep low pressure over Northern Ireland/ Scotland and decent sea fetch - the promenade was breached by the sea again at Aberystwyth on Saturday night. Maxima 7 to 9c on Wednesday, so quite mild. The Midlands becoming mostly dry on Wednesday night but showers keep going across much of West Wales, some heavy with hail and thunder still. At least the winds will be easing through the night, perhaps even enough for local ground frost by dawn Thursday. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Hopeful that Thursday proves to be another respite day of sunny spells, only a few showers and much less wind as we should be between low pressure systems. The Midlands could even be mostly dry on Thursday. There will be a southerly tracking low during Thursday which may threaten rain to the south as we go through the day, but present trends suggest this stays just to the south of Wales and the Midlands. However, the outside chance that this system tracks further north in which case Thursday could prove a wetter day than anticipated especially in the south of our regions. Highs of 6 to 8c with gentle winds. Reasonable chance of a widespread but slight frost on Thursday night, down just below zero in places as winds will be quite light and with clear periods. Yet another deep Atlantic low is heading our way on Friday it would seem, so although it may start dry and in places frosty, some showers are then likely, before eventually we all see further wet and windy weather by Friday evening or night, with gales in places. Temperatures close to average once more. This deep low crosses the UK during Saturday which is likely to be a disturbed day with showers and some longer spells of rain, along with strong to gale force winds. Showers may turn wintry, particularly for the hills as we progress through next weekend as it may turn a little colder but nothing drastic! The unsettled weather with minimal snow risk looks like continuing until at least the middle of February, so further wet weather at times maintaining flooding risks. No high pressure in sight, so very unlikely to get more than a dry day or two at a time.[/size][/font]
    [attachment=205949:PPVG89 wet Mon WW.png][attachment=205950:ecmt850.048 rain to all by Mon eve.png][attachment=205951:PPVJ89 respite Tue.png][attachment=205952:PPVK89 wet windy gales Tue night.png][attachment=205953:ecmt850.096 win dy showers lsr Wed.png][attachment=205954:PPVL89 windy showers lsr Wed.png][attachment=205955:ecmt850.120 respite low to FRance.png][attachment=205956:PPVO89 respite some showers less wind Th.png][attachment=205957:metslp.120 few showers Th.png][attachment=205962:ukprec rain stays to south.png][attachment=205958:ecmt850.144 becoming wet windy Fri.png][attachment=205959:ecmt850.144 becoming wet windy Fri.png][attachment=205960:ecmt850.168 showers lsr windy Sat.png][attachment=205961:ecmt850.192 colder perhaps wintry showers Sun.png][attachment=205963:prcpWarwickshire rain at times drier interludes Warks.png][attachment=205964:t850Warwickshire ave temps.png][attachment=205965:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion unsettled to mid month.png][attachment=205966:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  3. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather cold, very unsettled; spells of rain and wintry showers although significant lowland snow cover is not expected[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A generally mild and unsettled fortnight gone, although rather chilly at times in the past week. Rain and showers at times, although generally amounts not suspected to have caused widespread flooding, although parts of SW Wales did see an inch or two rain during Saturday 18th which may well have caused some locally? An exceptionally wet January for much of the Midlands, at Coventry it has already been the wettest January since 1939 - very wet too for West Wales but not as remarkably so - the running monthly total is 185mm here at Llanwnnen. Most places remain devoid of snow and hard frosts this Winter period, nothing especially cold in the past two weeks but we at least we have seen a number of frosty nights down to -2c or so. The coldest night of January thus far at Llanwnnen is a mere -2.8c on Tuesday 14th but by the following evening it was up to 9.3c as a warm sector of air arrived. At least the cloud has broken well at times of late to give a few quite sunny days for the Midlands, although in contrast the past week has been very dull over West Wales, only an estimated 3 hours sunshine since last Monday here for example in total. A very active squall line brought widespread hail and thunder to North Wales and the Midlands yesterday afternoon (Saturday 25th). A notably thundery Winter month has January been.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The week ahead is set to be the first colder than average week of this Winter, saying that no deep cold, but feeling cold after all the mild weather thus far and there is the chance of some snow but probably only small amounts for most below 1000 feet. Frost will feature at times by night, especially in the latter part of the week. Sunday mornings wet and windy weather, which has given over an inch to parts of Wales, is clearing the Midlands this lunchtime to leave a bright afternoon with heavy showers rattling across Wales in particular, and as is typical hail quite a feature for this region. Highs mild on Sunday at 8 to 10c. However, later this afternoon and this evening much colder air moves in from the NW so that the showers start to turn wintry. This evening and tonight then a mix of rain, sleet, hail and even snow showers, the latter especially for above 200m (650 feet) but not exclusively so. Most of the showers restricted to Wales, although a band of wintry showers should cross all parts after midnight. Any snow will be wet and is not expected to give more than a temporary slushy accumulation below 200m, although the hills of Wales should appear whitened by the morning. Nonetheless some areas will be experiencing their first, albeit belated and trivial wintriness of Winter! A grass frost forms quite widely between showers, and where clear spells and slackening breeze permit, a touch of air frost, the Midlands more favoured to drop to around zero tonight. On Monday the deep low is centred close to Northern Ireland with chilly strong westerly winds bringing further blustery showers with hail rather than sleet or snow to West Wales at this stage. A few showers getting across to the Midlands but the better prospect of dry, bright weather here during Monday. Maxima of 5 to 7c, mildest for SW Wales. As the low slowly sinks south down the Irish Sea on Monday night, the showers keep rattling into Wales and some too extended to the Midlands especially after midnight, again with hail, and possibly thunder. Too much wind and cloud on the whole for frost on Monday night, just localised ground frosts, minima generally of 2 to 4c. By Tuesday the low could well be centred over Wales, so further showers, even longer spells of rain in places, some of this quite heavy and so we may be experienced the familiar tale this Winter of localised flooding. The higher hills of Wales perhaps seeing some sleet or snow. Maxima again between 5 and 7c on Tuesday, slightly cold, but at least the wind will have eased. Any sunny intervals probably confined to the Midlands on Tuesday. With clear spells on Tuesday night given the lighter winds means a slight frost will readily form, but is dependent on where cloud manages to break. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]By Wednesday the low has sunk south into France and we pick up a bit of an easterly flow and so a touch colder perhaps. Some limited sunny intervals, plenty of cloud, a scattering of showers, wintry for hills, and they could well be turning increasingly wintry lower down too by the evening, although West Wales may miss these. Highs on Wednesday a chilly 3 to 5c. Showers die out overnight with clearing skies and a widespread frost, down to -3c in places. Thursday holds the best prospect of a dry day in the coming week, a somewhat rare commodity! We sit between low pressure systems but neither does any ridge of high pressure gain ascendance. Hopes then for a mainly, perhaps even completely dry and bright day on Thursday, but a cold one, highs no better than 3 or 4c for most. Friday, and a new deep Atlantic low is headed our way, the track of which is crucial to what weather we experience, as it engages the cold air over the UK. The odds seem to be that it passes just NW of Ireland and so we are on the relatively mild side, and so would experience standard wet and windy weather on Friday, whilst Scotland could be experiencing blizzard conditions. Hill snow risk then on Friday, but more generally lots of heavy cold rain, leading to more flooding issues no doubt! The rain could hold off until well into the afternoon for the East Midlands. Highs a raw 3 to 6c although Pembrokeshire could manage a milder 8c briefly. Proviso: A slight chance remains that the track of this low could end up several hundred miles further south, in which case the Welsh hills and Cotswolds could be hit quite hard by heavy snow next Friday? [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend seems unanimous on remaining rather cold and unsettled, further showers or longer spells of rain and the potential of some of this being wintry, especially for higher ground. Night frosts where cloud breaks and decreased wind permit.[/size][/font]
  4. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain or showers at times; mild mid week then cooler and perhaps drier, some frost[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another wet week gone but at least it became much drier from Thursday. Thunder and lightning occurred early in the week in the showers especially for Wales, here in the Lampeter area both Monday and Tuesday had overhead storms with some hail. Unusually January so far has witnessed 3 thunder days, for comparison during the whole of 2013 thunder was audible on just 4 days! Mild for the most part too last week, although some frosts since mid week, down to -2.3c here on Thursday night, the lowest reading since November and again Saturday night (-2.5c). Saturday was a lovely day with plenty of sunshine followed by a frosty night, virtually everywhere inland getting below zero for a change this Winter, lowest readings include Benson, Oxon -4.6c, Hereford -4.2c and Trawscoed at -3.5c. Winter 2013/14 has been very mild as we reach it's mid point this week, many places yet to see as much as a flake of snow! No prolonged dry spell as yet showing with low pressure dominating this week close to the UK. Never especially cold and so another week with very minimal snow risk.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A bright Sunday morning for the East Midlands but it has become cloudy and breezy elsewhere as weather fronts spread over from the west. Rain reaches West Wales early this afternoon spreading to the Midlands around sunset where it will have been a cloudy afternoon ahead. Freshening southerly winds through this afternoon into this evening along with the rain. Rain clears around midnight to leave some coastal showers out west, lows of 2 or 3c so localised grass frost. A bright and dry Monday morning for many but a showery trough moves into West Wales early afternoon this spreading showers east to the Midlands eventually by dusk, some heavy showers with hail possible. Highs a little above the mid January average at 7 or 8c on Monday afternoon. Showers largely dying out overnight and with light winds and clearing skies a widespread slight frost, down to -2c in places, still the odd shower for Welsh coasts however. A bright frosty dawn on Tuesday and for the Midlands a little bump of high pressure should mean a dry, bright day as well. A few showers about from the off for West Wales along with sunny intervals, but increasing cloud brings patchy light rain and drizzle afternoon, this spreading to the Midlands after dark. We are in a warm sector by Tuesday evening and so temperatures on the rise reaching 9 or 10c over Pembrokeshire and 6c for the East Midlands by midnight after a chilly day. A rather wet and windy but mild night to follow with the SW winds gusting gale force over coasts and hills of Wales, and where there will be heavy rain at times. Low pressure centred quite close to Ireland during Wednesday and associated fronts could be dragging their heels somewhere across Wales or England, so potentially a thoroughly wet day for certain regions as yet to be confirmed, this not helping flooding issues as the ground is saturated to capacity. A fresh SW wind through Wednesday but mild highs of around 10c. The more general rain should be clearing on Wednesday night leaving a few showers scattered about.

    Low pressure is stuck just to our NW to end the week, it's eastward progress blocked by a large cold anticyclone over Scandinavia, and so the unsettled theme continues towards the weekend. Thursday perhaps one of those days where Wales tends to catch the showers, hail in these, but the Midlands due to the SW or west flow is in the 'rain shadow' of the Welsh hills and escapes largely dry and bright? A more pronounced trough may however crop up overriding topographical factors and bring some showers across most places afternoon. Highs still quite mild at around 8c. Showers and breezes should decrease overnight Thursday for at least a ground frost to occur. down close to zero. Again probably no washout on Friday, but troughs in our vicinity, and so some showers should be expected along with sunny intervals, but, as is often the case, some areas remaining dry. Reasonable highs of 6 to 8c on Friday. A messy set up next weekend, neither low nor high gaining overall dominance, and so best that can be surmised is some decent dry spells, yet also the threat of some rain or showers at times too, Saturday perhaps the best chance of a dry, bright day. Light winds much of the weekend so any clearances overnight readily producing frost as we are not in mild air next weekend. Nothing suggests any snow during the coming week bar a little on the higher peaks. [/size][/font]
  5. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Drier than of late but still with rain at times; fairly mild but cooling[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another very unsettled and often wet and windy week gone by with 88mm rain falling in the past 7 days here at Llanwnnen, 130mm at Capel Curig, Snowdonia, 70mm for Little Rissington in the Cotswolds and 40mm at Coventry, and of course there has been widespread flooding issues. The storm surge on Friday caused by strong long fetch SW winds, low atmospheric pressure along with very high tides has badly damaged parts of the West Wales coast including the promenade and sea front at Aberystwyth. A mild week too, even frost at a premium let alone snow, nothing much below zero anywhere. Thunderstorms and hail have been prominent for West Wales with some places getting thunder on 2 or 3 days last week so I hear, so if anyone can tell me details such as dates, times and location I would be grateful to enter this in my weather diary![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Still some rain about in the coming week, but thankfully a somewhat drier picture than we have experienced through December and the New Year period, nor are gales likely to feature once we get past Monday. Still no snow but we will get some frosts eventually as we go through the week. For Sunday and Monday however yet another very deep depression is out over the Atlantic west of Ireland bringing further rain and wind for the start of the new week. Sunday was a bright start but rain and drizzle is affecting most areas this afternoon, some could be heavy for West Wales. The southerly winds strengthens with severe gale force gusts above 50mph for coasts and hills of Wales during this evening. A chilly afternoon for the Midlands, but the warm sector brings mild air to all and 10 or 11c the highs this evening. The frontal rain should clear Wales by midnight although still showers across Wales through tonight, lows of 5 or 6c by dawn with clear intervals. Rain at times perhaps lingering much of the night for the Midlands. A blustery SW wind on Monday brings plenty of showers for West Wales, these heavy with hail and possibly thunder at times, only a few showers getting across to the Midlands however. Sunny intervals too for Monday, highs a rather mild 8 to 10c, winds gusting to gale force (40 to 50mph) across Wales in particular. The wind and showers keep going for Wales on Monday night, you could see a flash of lightning here and there, but a mainly dry night for the Midlands. By Tuesday the deep low has progressed to the NW of Scotland, another fairly mild, windy and showery day in essence, the Midlands tending to miss these, while parts of West Wales get a fair few, still with hail in places. Maxima on Tuesday 7 to 9c with the wind easing during the day. Just the chance that an area of more general rain skirts the South Midlands for a time on Tuesday which could mean a wetter day south of Coventry? Low pressure filling up close to northern Scotland on Wednesday, while fronts lie close to southern England. Still too much wind for frost in this early to middle part of the week. Fewer showers about on Wednesday, more of us managing a generally dry, bright day, highs between 7 and 9c and a much lighter SW breeze. A small wave low may cross the south on Wednesday night and so it could turn into a wet evening and night.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Any rain should have cleared the Midlands by midday Thursday with a ridge of high pressure giving a generally dry afternoon with sunny intervals, just the odd scattered shower in places still, a colder day highs 4 to 6c, but light winds at least. Thursday night looks a fair candidate to be the first frosty one of the comng week, some parts getting just below zero. Perhaps another spell of rain or showers for a time on Friday but there is reasonable prospect that a firm high pressure builds over the Continent by next weekend helping to keep the Atlantic influence at bay. This change in pattern by no means unanimous, but at least the hope that next weekend sees more widespread drier weather than we have experienced for the past 4 weeks, and if high pressure does dominate we will be seeing some overnight frost and fog patches. As we look further out towards mid to late January there is still little sign of much if any cold or snow on the horizon.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=201932:PPVG89 windy showers lsr Mon.png][attachment=201933:ecmt850.048 windy showery Mon.png][attachment=201934:PPVJ89 windy showery Tue.png][attachment=201935:PPVL89 m dry Wed less wind.png][attachment=201936:ecmt850.096 wave L perhaps wet Wed night.png][attachment=201947:PPVO89 wave L wet wed night south.png][attachment=201937:ukprec potential wet early Th.png][attachment=201940:PPVO89 becoming m dry bright Th.png][attachment=201948:ecmt850.120 drying Th.png][attachment=201949:h850t850eu drying Th pm.png][attachment=201950:ecmt850.168 m dry weekend frosts.png][attachment=201951:h850t850eu GFS more unsettled weather rain times.png][attachment=201953:prcpWarwickshire somewhat drier this week.png][attachment=201954:t850Warwickshire near normal temps all week.png][attachment=201956:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Unsettled and very windy at times with further rain or showers , brief drier interludes, a few overnight frosts.[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The unsettled and at times wet and windy weather continued to batter us last week, although at least there was a respite over the Festive period itself and again during this present weekend. No official Met Office sites reported a 'White Christmas' however some places did see wintry showers on the big day, including just a little sleet here in Llanwnnen in the morning making it a technical WC here, indeed the hills not far away were covered white. Llandrindod Wells in Powys was the main lucky spot to witness a 'true' WC as this mid Wales town above 200m had a decent snow covering as did the Brecon Beacons. Appropriately enough with a high of 5.3c Christmas Day could well end up the coldest day of December, not that cold though in what has been a mild wet month for many. Boxing Day saw generally fine and calm conditions ahead of the next Atlantic blast during the night. Hail and thunder featured quite prolifically last week, again particularly for parts of Wales, although Birmingham and Coventry joined in with the action on Friday. There were very windy spells last week and on Friday Aberdaron, a very exposed site on the Llyn Peninsular had a gust of 102mph (subject to verification), most of the Midlands managed to escape the worst of the gales and flooding last week, quite a few trees came down on Friday across West Wales. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]More unsettled at times wet and windy weather as we enter the New Year, so December will end up a thoroughly wet month over West Wales, at Llanwnnen there has been 204mm up to this morning, not so wet for the Midlands, Rugby, Warwickshire is presently on just 44mm and Coventry 61.4mm, so a big variation West to Middle this month! December has also been a mild month and Coventry and some other parts of the Midlands had to wait until this morning for the first air frost (sub zero).[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lovely frosty, sunny Sunday morning, the Midlands also having a sunny afternoon, but cloud spreads across West Wales before sunset (4pm) accompanied by a freshening SW wind, this heralding another wet and windy episode. Clear for a time this evening over the Midlands leading to a widespread ground frost, this should have lifted by midnight as cloud and wind increases. Rain at times overnight for Wales, some heavy and a strong to gale force wind, some rain also affecting the Midlands after midnight, where it also turns windy. A spell of heavy rain and squally winds sweeps east across all parts on Monday morning with gales in places and should be cleared through the East Midlands around midday Monday. A little bump of higher pressure pm so the rest of Monday mostly dry, just the odd shower in places and with sunny spells and much less wind. Highs on Monday a rather mild 8 to 10c. This respite lasts into the evening, clear spells leading to a widespread ground frost down to 1c in parts of the Midlands by midnight. Low pressure is centred NW of Ireland much of this week, and during Tuesday night the next set of fronts brings rain and quite windy conditions back to all areas, again some heavy. An unsettled day then for Tuesday further spells of rain or showers, some heavy with hail and thunder, maxima around 8c. Overnight showers of rain and hail rattle into West Wales but generally dry for the Midlands with clear spells and perhaps a touch of ground frost, so not too bad for the New Year revellers[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It could be a dry fine start to Wednesday but a lively little secondary depression looks set to cross Ireland afternoon bringing yet more wet and windy weather, depending on the exact rack of this system but there is potential for quite stormy weather again for parts of Wales and England in the afternoon or evening. Academic highs of 9 or 10c for Wednesday. Winds ease off significantly overnight as the low zips away NE with showers for Wales, few if any over the Midlands, no frost. Low pressure still fixed to our NW Thursday with SW winds, this day looking showery and breezy, as is often the case with this set up in Winter, the Midlands seeing few showers and better bright spells, so not such a bad day, highs between 7 and 9c, fairly mild for early January. Friday a similar day with rain or showers in places, some places not seeing so much though and quite windy from the SW still. No sign in a let up from the very unsettled weather through next weekend, further showers or longer spells of rain, some wintry showers perhaps for higher ground, and any dry intervals short lived, it will be windy at times although no gales showing just yet. Overall it looks another wet week, especially for Wales where 100mm could fall in places, so localised flooding issues. Looking further into January and little sign of any particularly cold or wintry weather at least to mid month it would seem, however there is still plenty of time for a change![/size][/font]
    [attachment=200691:PPVG89 wet windy to dry calmer Mon.png][attachment=200692:PPVJ89 showers lsr Tue.png][attachment=200693:h850t850eu wet windy wed.png][attachment=200695:h850t850eu turning wet windy tonight.png][attachment=200696:metslp.96 perhaps wet windy laterr Thu.png][attachment=200699:PPVO89 showery breezy TH.png][attachment=200697:ecmt850.168 colder wekend some rain ore perhaps wintry showers.png][attachment=200698:h850t850eu same old weekend.png][attachment=200700:prmslWarwickshire unsettled all week.png][attachment=200701:t850Warwickshire ave uppers.png]
  7. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Very unsettled with damaging gales and flooding problems likely at times; variable but often quite chilly temperatures, some frost[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wet and windy last week, Llanwnnen had 90mm rain in the past 7 days - 35mm of this fell on Wednesday with localised flooding; rather wet for the Midlands too, Coventry having had 25mm. Temperatures very up and down some days like Monday were very mild, in fact in the early hours of Monday much of the Midlands was above 13c! Thursday was one of the colder days and some parts saw snow showers, we did here at Llanwnnen although it did not lie, the temperature dropped down to just 1c in the mid afternoon sleet and snow. Thunder also featured in the showers for parts of Wales on Thursday, and again on Saturday when a solitary flash of lightning followed by a low rumble was heard during a squall that gave a 53mph gust of wind here. Gales in places last week too, one of the strongest gusts was of over 80mph at Pembrey, Carmarthenshire on Wednesday evening. More very windy and wet weather at times in the coming week as two significant low pressure systems affect the UK. A White Christmas is unlikely although it would only take one flake to fall![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday, and at least we are seeing sunny intervals, although some areas, as with this morning, are being affected by heavy showers with hail and thunder, while other areas, particularly parts of the Midlands escaping these altogether though, highs on Sunday 7 to 9c, a little above average. Showers tending to die down tonight but a few continuing for West Wales, temperatures down to 1 to 3c with a ground frost in places, coasts escaping though. Cloud and wind increases late in the night as a rapidly deepening depression heads towards Ireland. This low is the main feature of the week as it will be one of the deepest, most intense storms to pass close to the UK in many years, and will be bringing severe damaging gales on Monday - the central pressure will fall below 930mbar! The depression will track to the west of Ireland through Monday, and it will already be blowing a gale with heavy rain to greet the dawn on Monday for Wales and with these conditions quickly spreading to the Midlands through the morning. The Midlands is not likely to escape these damaging winds on this occasion as the isobars (pressure lines) are very tight across all UK. Strong to gale force south to SW winds then, inland gusts exceeding 60mph, while for coasts and hills of Wales 80 to 90mph gusts are likely, these speeds will bring down plenty of trees, cause power outages and structural damage. Not just severe gales but heavy rain too associated with this low, and once the rain starts it is set to last through to at least late evening, and will be very heavy at times, especially for Wales, so flooding too will be a problem as we go though the day for some areas. Parts of South Wales undoubtedly set to receive 2 or 3 inches of rain on Monday with an inch falling on most places. Irrelevant considering the other conditions but it will be a mild day, peak temperatures 9 to 11c during Monday evening. The rain should then turn more showery by the early hours of Tuesday, these showers heavy and quite frequent across Wales with hail and possibly thunder, a windy night but the gales should have abated inland. The low continues to deepen on Tuesday as it tracks past Scotland and may reach as low as 925mbar. Historically, the Braer storm of January 1993 saw an estimated 914mbar, but was further north of Scotland, and is thought to be the deepest extra tropical cyclone on record for the North Atlantic [url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993"]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Windy and showery on Tuesday, SW winds gusting to gale force. Although winds will be SW, the air has originated over a freezing cold Canada several days previously and is categorised as 'returning Polar maritime' (rPm), and is inherently cold at height if not surface. So a chilly, windy Tuesday with showers, especially across West Wales, parts of the Midlands may escape with a mostly dry, bright day. Cold enough for sleet or snow over the hills on Christmas Eve, above 300m most favoured for wintriness, although it should not settle, many places seeing hail showers on Tuesday. Maxima on Tuesday 5 to 7c. Showers lessening overnight and with clear spells a widespread slight frost develops as the wind decreases substantially, minima by Christmas Day morning around 0c except for milder coasts. A respite from the winds on Christmas Day, we have a slack area of low pressure crossing the SW so moderate breezes at worst! Still rather an unsettled picture with some areas experiencing showers, but more of us managing a generally dry day with sunny intervals. Interestingly we are still in the rather cold rPm air and so if you do see a blob of sleet on the car windscreen on Wednesday then you have technically experienced a 'White Christmas' - I should not rush out and place a late bet though! The Midlands looks best bet for a pleasant bright and chilly afternoon walk, while West Wales will see further rain and hail showers, sleety stuff perhaps for hills. Highs of 5 to 7c for the Big Day. With clearing skies and light winds a widespread slight air frost is likely overnight, although still some showers keep going in places, especially for Wales, again with sleet or wet snow for the hills. Temperatures down to -2c locally.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A bit of a respite again for Thursday too, a slight bump of relatively high pressure kills most of the shower activity, still some places catching them though, and much of the day fairly dry and bright with sunny intervals. Highs on Thursday 5 to 7c again and slightly cold for late December. A frost may develop for the Midlands on Thursday evening but more trouble is looming out west! Another deep low is moving quickly towards Ireland on Thursday evening bringing rain and strong winds to Wales. As this system is still 4 or 5 days off it still has to treated with a degree of hypothesis, but again there is a strong suggestion of damaging gale to severe gales affecting Wales and England on Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is this morning showing a 940mbar system tracking close to Ireland then Scotand through Friday with very tight isobars which would produce damaging gales similar to Monday, while ECM shows the low not as deep or damaging perhaps. Suffice to say Friday morning at least looks a washout with strong to gale force winds, the rain heavy in places with flooding potential although it may clear to showers pm. At least it will be mild highs around 10c.[/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Longer term and the very changeable, disturbed theme continues through next weekend and towards the New Year. Atlantic lows still dominating although brief ridges will dry it up at times, albeit briefly for a day at most. Further showers or longer spells of rain, and possibly wintry showers over higher ground as we are mid Winter. Variable temperatures as lows cross, fluctuating between mild and rather cold, the risk of a few slight frosts on occasion. The chance of more gales exists for the 30th or New Years Eve but that is a long way off to speculate!
    [attachment=199110:PPVG89 Monday storm.png][attachment=199111:ecmt850.048 sub 920 storm Mon night.png][attachment=199112:h850t850eu ex deep L Mon night.png][attachment=199114:ecmt850.048 sub 930 storm Mon night.png][attachment=199115:PPVJ89 windy showery Tue.png][attachment=199116:PPVL89 r cold some showers Christmas Day.png][attachment=199118:ecmt850.096 light winds chilly Christmas Day frost.png][attachment=199119:h850t850eu sh L ligh winds Christmas Day.png][attachment=199120:PPVO89 respite Th.png][attachment=199121:ecmt850.120 rain pot gales Th night.png][attachment=199122:ecmt850.144 potential gales heavy rain Fr.png][attachment=199123:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=199124:h850t850eu pot gale 30th.png][attachment=199125:ecmt850.240 more rain New Year.png][attachment=199127:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=199128:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion very wet Ceredigion.png][attachment=199129:prmslWarwickshire two intense lows.png][attachment=199130:t850Warwickshire fluctuating but r cold temps.png][/size][/font]
  8. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Very disturbed with deep Atlantic lows bringing heavy rain and gales at times; variable temperatures but never especially cold[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A generally mild week gone, although the Midlands in particular saw some frost mid week, and on Wednesday the high was just 6c at Coventry due to an anticyclonic inversion which saw colder surface air trapped beneath mild upper air at cloud level. Then, some very mild air with most places remaining above 9c on Thursday night, Trawscoed and Pershore reaching 13c on Friday. A dry first half to last week but from Thursday it turned increasingly unsettled and windy at times, on Saturday gusts of 85mph at Capel Curig, 65mph at Pembrey and 51mph at Llanwnnen, Wales, being recorded. An inch of rain falling in the past week here near Lampeter while Coventry had just 5mm. The North Atlantic is seeing a very significant temperature contrast presently as really cold air leaving North America meets relatively warm Tropical air from the south, this collision of highly contrasting air masses spawning a succession of deep storm systems. A very disturbed week ahead as a series of deep depressions cross the Atlantic bringing heavy rain and strong to gale force winds to all parts at times, these could well cause damage. with Wednesday and Friday/ Saturday seeming the most likely occasions for these gales. A White Christmas is most unlikely this year (as usual!).[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]


    The dry, bright start to Sunday has flattered to deceive as various weather fronts are set to bring cloud and some rain at times this afternoon and evening, although parts of the Midlands may escape with relatively little again. A fresh to strong SW wind on Sunday gusting to gale force for coasts and hills of Wales. Mild highs of around 12c. A pulse of heavier rain perhaps affecting the South Midlands this evening, but then only patchy light rain and drizzle during the night. Quite a windy night. Very mild too tonight, no lower than 10c for the Midlands, although should the cold front manage to clear through West Wales around dawn it could dip to 6c locally here. This cold front may linger across the Midlands during much of Monday, the central and southern areas of this region more likely to see rain at times through the day, most of it quite light. West Wales may see some showery rain first thing, but then a mainly dry Monday afternoon, bar the odd shower, and with sunny intervals. Highs between 9 and 11c on Monday - mildest for the East Midlands and Pembrokeshire. Most places becoming dry on Monday night with clear spells and a widespread ground frost, temperatures down close to zero, however the lingering front over SE England may decide to return rain to the SE Midlands beyond Coventry once more after midnight? The cold front should at long last have fizzled out over the SE by dawn leaving a dry, bright Tuesday but colder highs of 6 to 8c generally. Clearing skies on Tuesday evening soon leads to a frost as temperatures reach zero across the Midlands by midnight. Increasing wind and eventually cloud for West Wales through the evening lifts any frost and this process should have occurred for the Midlands too by dawn on Wednesday as the wind starts to pick up.

    During Wednesday an intense depression is set to track to the NW of Ireland, the central pressure could well be below 960mbar. Strong south to SW winds developing on Wednesday morning with the potential for widespread gales with gusts to storm force (above 60mph) through the afternoon in particular - so the main feature for Wednesday is the prospect of damaging winds. Patchy rain also to greet dawn on Wednesday for West Wales, this becoming heavier by afternoon and spreading across the Midlands eventually. For Wednesday evening a band of heavy and squally rain moves east across all parts, again with damaging gale force wind gusts associated with this feature, there could also be hail in places. Temperatures on Wednesday rather inconsequential but reaching 8 to 10c, so a fairly mild but very windy day. The main rain clears the East Midlands around midnight, it is then a windy night with squally showers affecting Wales in particular, hail likely in these. In spite of the wind, some quite cold air arrives and temperatures drop to 2 or 3c with a grass frost in places, and the showers over the Welsh hills could be turning wintry. The deep low has move towards Iceland by Thursday with quite a strong cold blustery SW to westerly flow over the UK. Plenty of showers for Wales on Thursday, these often heavy with hail, and some sleet or snow for high ground, although even lower down we could notice a few flakes. Showers spreading to the Midlands too through the course of the afternoon, these again bringing hail and sleet in places. Blustery winds on Thursday, highs of just 5 or 6c and feeling pretty cold in the wind. Some showers continuing even into Thursday night for West Wales but these should die out during the evening for the Midlands, clear spells and a slight frost down just below zero in places, with the wind dropping off too. The next deep low is south of Iceland on Friday but extends its frontal influence across the UK as we go through the day. Soon clouding over then on Friday morning with rain reaching most parts by afternoon, heavy in places, especially Wales. Friday is another day with a likelihood of gales developing, strong to gale force SW winds accompanying the rain on Friday afternoon and evening, the prospect of at least severe gale force gusts of above 50mph quite likely and with more wind damage expected. The rain totals for the week will be totting up too by the end of the week so we could be seeing flooding issues to by Friday into next weekend for some areas. It becomes very mild later on Friday and by evening temperatures will be at 10 to 12c as we will be in the warm sector of the depression.

    This very disturbed picture of volatile Atlantic depressions affecting the UK continues almost unabated next weekend and even through the Christmas period. Further very wet and windy weather then at times for the foreseeable future really, this bringing the unwanted attendant risks of flooding and wind damage over the Festive period. Both of the main weather models are showing a rather nasty looking low crossing southern Britain around Christmas Day in fact! Big swings of temperature in this outlook varying from very mild within warm sectors to quite cold as troughs pass to our east, but any wintriness almost certainly restricted to hills and even up there of very temporary nature. Chances of a White Christmas are then considered very slim! Much more likely is the prospect of a damaging storm system bringing severe gales and flooding along with notably low barometer readings at some stage over the Christmas period.
    [/size][/font]
  9. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Fairly dry and quite mild; turning unsettled and windier with some rain from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The rather dry winter weather continues, only 7mm in the past 17 days at Llanwnnen, only a couple of mm at Rugby, although we may be bringing back the rains to an extent by the end of the coming week. Temperatures were around the early December average for much of past week, extensive cloud cover prevented frost and fog generally, only Wednesday night seeing a widespread frost, Pembrey on the Carmarthenshire coast fell to -3c that night - this a frost prone spot due to sandy soils in spite of being adjacent the warming sea! Gale force winds affected the Midlands and parts of Wales on Thursday, gusts close to 60mph at Coleshill, this causing some damage with trees blown down, and even a fatality in Nottinghamshire. Prior to the passage of the cold front temperatures reached a mild 10 or 11c on Thursday although the potential cold snap that was strongly suggested in last week's guide did not materialise, as the very cold air got shunted quickly into Europe during Friday before it could get a hold over southern Britain, and so Friday also turned out mild in SW Wales, Milford Haven reaching 11.8c, although the Midlands was a little below average at around 7c. The general synoptic pattern this week is for high pressure to our SE over Europe and lows out west over the Atlantic, with a feed of south to SW winds bringing plenty of dry and mild weather although it may well turn more unsettled from Thursday, which is though a long way off as we saw last week![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    A very mild start to Sunday for West Wales, with coasts not having dropped below 9c overnight. Sunday then a generally dry and mild day with sunny intervals, just the odd drizzly shower possible in places, top temperatures afternoon of 10 to 12c - so the mildest day in the Lampeter area for several weeks. The best of the sun on Sunday over the Midlands. Mostly cloudy on Sunday night this preventing frost and temperatures remaining above 5c. MIld SW breezes again for Monday, variable cloud but with the sun breaking through at times, maxima 10 to 12c again. Some clear intervals perhaps Monday night with localised grass frost, but many places avoiding this with too much cloud cover prevalent, minima 2 to 5c. Another similar day for Tuesday, lots of dry and mild weather with sunny intervals, more of a Continental component to the flow could peg temperatures down lower for the Midlands where max may be 8c, but nearer 11c for SW Wales. A little drizzle possible for West Wales later on Tuesday, and it could be turning quite windy here too. Cloud could break more readliy over the Midlands on Tuesday night leading to a fairly widespread ground frost and lows close to zero, but West Wales should be too breezy and cloudy. Subtle differences in wind direction by mid week could alter the feel of the weather, as a drift more from the SSE would bring cooler low level Continental air, particularly for the Midlands, but if the breeze stays even slightly west of south then it remains quite mild. Assuming a SSE drift then, highs only 6 to 8c on Wednesday, but Pembrokeshire higher closer to 10c, and another dry day with some sunny intervals. Again local ground frost where cloud breaks permit for Wednesday night, West Wales most likely to escape.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Uncertainty as ever creeps in as the week progresses, but by Thursday the high over the near Continent may relinquish somewhat permitting weak troughs in from the Atlantic, and this could mean some patchy light rain later Thursday, more especially for West Wales, however it could be that we stay generally dry again with temperatures at least up to the mid December average of 8 or 9c.The barometer more definitely falling by Friday as Atlantic lows gain dominance over the Euro high. This means the trend from Friday and over the weekend is for increasingly unsettled weather with rain and perhaps strong winds at times. Rain at times then to end the week but probably no washout, and although it turns windy, a low chance of gales. Temperatures average to mild next weekend with frost unlikely.[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=196979:PPVG89.png][attachment=196980:PPVJ89 mild m dry Tue.png][attachment=196981:ecmt850.072 Tu m dry mild.png][attachment=196982:PPVL89 dry cooler drift.png][attachment=196983:PPVO89 some rain Th esp WW.png][attachment=196984:ecmt850.096 Tr west late Th.png][attachment=196985:ecmt850.168 rain wind times weekend.png][attachment=196986:h850t850eu potential wet windy spell weekend.png][attachment=196987:prcpWarwickshire some rain from Fri.png][attachment=196988:prmslWarwickshire drop from Fri.png][attachment=196989:t850Warwickshire mildish week.png][attachment=196990:mgram_Birmingham fairly dry overall.png][/size][/font]
  10. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry with some frost and fog to mid week; cold snap likely Friday to Sunday with wintry showers in places[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]November ended on a dry, quiet note, very little rain falling anywhere in the final week. After a rather cold start temperatures recovered to around the late November average from mid week and Saturday was sunny for most with parts of West Wales such as Milford Haven topping a rather mild 10c. Overall November 2013 was quite a dry month although parts of the West Midlands did touch average rainfall. Mean temperatures were slightly below average for November as a whole.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rainfall totals for November 2013:

    Capel Curig, Snowdonia 155mm
    Llanwnnen, Ceredigion 111mm
    Llanelli, Carmarthenshire 110mm
    Church Lawford and Long Lawford, near Rugby 41mm
    Coventry, Warwickshire 61mm
    Little Rissington, Cotswolds 72mm

    More dry, quiet weather early in the coming week, with a cold snap quite likely for Friday and Saturday with snow showers in places, nothing prolonged as yet though.

    High pressure centred over the UK on Sunday, although not quite as intense as it was early last week when the barometer attained 1042mbar - the highest of the whole year! A lot of cloud now within the circulatiuon compared with Saturday, so sunshine at a premium on Sunday afternoon, and the cloud thick enough for a little drizzle over parts of West Wales. Fairly mild on Sunday maxima 9 to 11c with hardly any wind. Cloud may well break up somewhat after midnight leading to a fairly widespread grass frost and patchy fog. Lows just above zero generally, although where the cloud sticks nearer 4c and no fog. High pressure remains over us through Monday so another mostly dry, quiet day. Where fog has formed it could take all morning to clear and so peg back temperatures with highs below 5c if this happens, for most of us though more like 7 or 8c and there will be some sunny intervals. Clear spells overnight Monday with frost anf fog more prevalent, minima just below zero, but most coasts escaping. Again fog could be slow to clear on Tuesday morning with light winds again. Sunny intervals on Tuesday once any fog clears but some places remaining overcast. Temperatures struggling up to 6 or 7c but milder for West Wales coasts, 9c here later as a weakening front approaches from the north with attendant SW breeze. This weakening cold front gradually edges south on Tuesday night and during Wednesday. For most the cloud prevents frost from forming on Tuesday evening, but the South Midlands in particular could turn frosty after dark Tuesday provided skies are clear. A little light rain or drizzle in places for North and later West Wales for Tuesday night, some of this surviving down into the Midlands by Wednesday morning, but very patchy and insignificant amounts if at all. The front should have cleared or dissipated by Wednesday afternoon with sunny spells and highs close to the early December average of 8 or 9c, so quite a pleasant afternoon if a touch breezy. Clear periods on Wednesday evening leads to a widespread slight frost and temperatures down to around zero by midnight.

    Changes on Thursday as low pressure over Scandinavia throws down a more active cold front from the NW through the day. A bright and frosty start in places Thursday but the cloud and wind increasing through the morning ahead of the front. Rain arrives sometime afternoon accompanied by a strong NW wind making it feel cold although temperatures will reach 7 to 9c, near normal. Some heavy bursts of rain in places on Thursday afternoon or early evening, perhaps turning to sleet or snow briefly as it clears, particularly above 200m such as the Cotswolds perhaps? The front clears through early to mid evening and much colder Arctic air arrives overnight bringing wintry showers in places and also a widespread penetrating frost. Feeling bitter as the strong NW wind continues, lows not much below zero but with significant windchill. Although this cold snap for the end of the week seems likely, the models have not been unanimous over it, and so it must be mentioned here that there is still the chance that the really cold air ends up passing to our east. This guide is going for the cold affecting the UK due to the ECM model having been resolute with this outcome over its recent days output. Alternative scenarios for Friday would be a chilly high pressure over us with frost, or less cold westerly winds and some rain or showers, but here we will predict a cold snap. In fact, potentially Friday and Saturday could be very cold days with snow showers in places as temperatures at cloud level could be as low as -10c and this would mean temperatures only reaching 1 to 3c by day. Precipitation-wise, and given the cold snap these will mostly be of hail, sleet or snow and would align in streets with the NW wind, so that some areas catch plenty while adjacent areas largely miss them. Hard to guess, but areas prone to snow showers could be Snowdonia, Cardigan Bay and the West Midlands - and for these regions temporary coverings of snow cannot be ruled out, especially for higher ground. As usual in these showery situations however, some of us will be wondering what all the fuss was about come next Sunday and may have experienced a mostly dry, bright but cold couple of days! In any case high pressure is likely to reassert over southern Britain next weekend killing off the wintry showers but with severe frosts becoming more likely as winds fall light, Saturday night in particular seeing -6 or -7c locally.

    Any cold snap will be just that, as during the following week things should be turning much milder as we head towards mid December.
    [attachment=195955:PPVE89 H UK Sun.png][attachment=195956:ecmt850.072 weakening tr prevents frost Tu night.png][attachment=195957:h850t850eu Tue dry frost fog am.png][attachment=195958:PPVL89 little rain places Wed am.png][attachment=195959:ecmt850.096 m dry brightening Wed then frost eve.png][attachment=195960:PPVO89 cf pm becomes windy some rain.png][attachment=195961:metslp.120 CF Th windy rain pm.png][attachment=195962:ecmt850.120 arctic air v cold wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=195963:ecmt850.168 cold frosty m dry weekend.png][attachment=195964:h850t850eu cold dry frosty weekend H S UK.png][attachment=195965:t850Warwickshire cold snap not unanimous.png][attachment=195966:mgram_Birmingham cold snap likely Fr to Su.png][/size][/font]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mainly dry, rather cloudy, some frost and fog; near average temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rather a cold week gone with some frosty nights, especially here in Wales where Friday night saw a severe frost down to -7.3c (colder than any official UK station), and -5.5c at Tirabad, Powys. Frosts lighter for the Midlands and most of coastal Wales. Showery early in the week, a mix of hail, sleet, thunder and even snow in places, mainly but not exclusively for higher ground as Swansea, for example, caught some snow in the showers during Tuesday. With sunny spells it did not feel too bad and some days reached 9 or 10c for parts of West Wales, which is near average for late November. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Plenty of dry, quiet weather in the coming week as high pressure sticks close to southern Ireland through to Thursday, before it turns breezy but still mostly dry. Variable cloud, so sunshine the most difficult aspect to predict, and there will be further frost and fog at times, more especially early in the week. Another frosty start for many on Sunday, although parts of the Midlands too cloudy for this, and most coastal areas, as is typical in Autumn/ early Winter, have escaped. Some sunny intervals about on Sunday afternoon, but perhaps a lot of cloud especially over the Midlands. Highs on Sunday 7 to 9c. Cloud tending to break tonight with a widespread generally slight frost, although parts of inland Wales down to -4c. Fog may form in places but probably not so widespread this. Similar on Monday, plenty of cloud but with sunny intervals and a touch colder highs of 6 to 8c. West Wales could fare best for sunshine on Monday. Frost and fog forming where cloud breaks permit on Monday night but this a bit of a lottery, although again inland Wales 'favoured' for a frosty night. Again, cloud cover difficult to say for Tuesday, some areas lucky with decent sunny spells, others remaining largely overcast, temperatures once more below average at 6 to 8c maxima. Very little wind throughout this early to middle period of the week. Should anywhere see fog this may be slow to clear and so temperatures would then struggle to top 4 or 5c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Subtle changes by Wednesday with milder and more generally cloudier skies working around the high from off the Atlantic. Less chance of brightness developing then on Wednesday and West Wales coasts and hills may see a spit of drizzle. Milder highs of between 8 and 10c, 11c possible for Pembrokeshire. Although some clear intervals may develop on Wednesday night, a fairly extensive cloud cover is likely so frost more restricted and localised, nowhere getting below zero, so a grass frost at worst. Thursday and another rather cloudy but fairly mild day, brighter intervals in places, highs 9 to 11c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure then slips away SW on Friday as lows track to our north into Scandinavia. The main effect from this pressure pattern change is to tighten the isobars so that with a NW breeze no frost or fog expected for Thursday night, temperatures should remain above 3c. Most of the rain associated with the Scandinavian low is expected to pass to our NE so still an essentially dry picture to end the week. Just the chance the fronts turn out more lively with a spell of light rain later Friday into Saturday? Friday then is breezy but generally dry with some sunny intervals and near average temperatures. Next weekend high pressure still close enough to the SW for plenty of dry weather, although weak fronts could produce a little rain in places. A brisk NW flow so not mild but not much in the way of frost either. Sunshine still likely to be at a premium next weekend with a moist Atlantic air stream. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=194785:PPVJ89 dry calm early week local frost and fog.png][attachment=194786:viewimage calm r cold local fog and frost early week.png][attachment=194788:PPVL89 more cloud milder Wed.png][attachment=194789:ecmt850.096 milder We Th still dry.png][attachment=194790:metslp.120 dry r mild Th.png][attachment=194791:ecmt850.144 breezy m dry Fr.png][attachment=194792:viewimage HSW LNE breezy m dry wend.png][attachment=194793:ecmt850.168 m dry ave temps wend.png][attachment=194794:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire mostly dry week.png][attachment=194795:prmslWarwickshire H much of week m dry.png][attachment=194796:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  12. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Cold with frosty nights a feature; some rain or showers with hill snow; dry with fog next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A drier week gone - 26mm rain fell here and just 11mm at Coventry, but the extent of the showers during Thursday was not anticipated well in the last guide as although the East Midlands and parts of Pembrokeshire did miss these completely, parts of the Shropshire and Worcestershire caught half an inch or more from persistent showers. Temperatures mostly around or a little below the average last week (10 or 11c), with many places getting at least one air frost including on Tuesday night when it got down to -2.6c here and -3.6c at Benson in Oxfordshire. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An slight taste of Winter this week as cold air arrives by Tuesday, although the risk of snow is negligible, we could see some quite hard frosts. Sunday has been a calm rather pleasant day with some sunshine in places such as Ceredigion and where it reached a fairly mild 12c. Several cold fronts brings rain to West Wales early on Monday morning moving into the Midlands afternoon, some quite heavy rain about for a time. The rain may linger well into the evening for the SE Midlands. Highs on Monday between 8 and 10c which will be the highest readings we see for at least a week! After a dry interval late afternoon, showers move into West Wales from off the Irish Sea during Monday night, some of these perhaps heavy with hail and marking the arrival of the much colder air, enough so for sleet or snow over the hills. Becoming clear and dry overnight for the Midlands and a widespread frost, many places getting down to around zero in spite of the keen NW breeze, coastal areas mostly escaping a frost however. On Tuesday we are in a cold NW blow between high pressure over the Atlantic and low over Scandinavia. With sea temperatures still up at 10c the cold air flow over Irish Sea is conducive to further shower development and so West Wales catching these, and it is cold enough for snow over high ground above about 1000 feet. Mostly dry with decent sunny spells for the Midlands. Very cold for mid November, highs of just 4 or 5c, but 7c is possible for Pembrokeshire, and a fresh NW wind. Another frost soon setting in after sunset, down to -3c in places by midnight. A low then slips down the North Sea through Wednesday, with the associated fronts bringing rain and mostly hill snow to all parts by morning, and so lifting the frost. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rain at times through Wednesday morning with a fresh west to NW wind, but becoming more showery in the afternoon, again with wintry stuff for high ground. Cold again, highs on Wednesday generally 5 to 7c, but Pembrokeshire could touch 9c. Further showers in places overnight Wednesday and sleet or snow could temporarily come down to lower levels as temperatures drop to around zero, but this should not amount to anything away from high ground. A stiff northerly wind too overnight Wednesday making it feel bitter. Low pressure sinks away south into France during Thursday with pressure trying to build over northern Britain. The really cold air has mixed out by Thursday which is though still quite a chilly day with a NE breeze, there will be sunny intervals and a few rain showers. Highs between 5 and 8c. Clear intervals developing overnight Thursday with any showers tending to die out, still a bit of a breeze but a ground frost for many areas, temperatures down close to zero, with localised air frost and fog where winds drop sufficiently.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Strong indications of high pressure being over or very close to the UK by Friday and lasting right over next weekend. We are still in relatively cold air and the high will tend to trap this chilly air under an inversion layer at cloud level. Looking dry and fairly cold then from Friday, some sunshine, but with clearing skies frost and fog readily forming overnights and this could be slow to clear in places. Potentially quite sharp frosts of -5c are possible and with maxima in the 4 to 7c range, but colder where fog is persistent, this most likely to happen over the river valleys of the Midlands.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=193810:ecmt850.048 cold air arrives Mon night.png][attachment=193811:PPVJ89 cold some showers Tu.png][attachment=193812:h850t850eu cold unsettled Wed.png][attachment=193814:PPVO89 cold m dry Th.png][attachment=193815:ecmt850.120 r cold showers dying Th.png][attachment=193816:h850t850eu dry r cold Fr.png][attachment=193817:ecmt850.168 weekend dry r cold frost and fog.png][attachment=193818:h850t850eu dry r cold weekend.png][attachment=193819:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  13. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rain early in the week, becoming much drier with average to cool temperatures and some night frosts[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Gales affected West Wales last Saturday, gusts of over 80mph recorded at Mumbles near Swansea and 51mph here at a much more sheltered inland Llanwnnen -there were trees brought down, some structural damage and power outages, as well as huge waves! An unsettled week gone with rain at times but also some drier intervals. Most places have picked up between 25 and 50mm rain in the past 7 day, although parts of West Wales had more than this, but not enough to create flooding issues as far as I am aware. Temperatures have been around or a little below average generally and there have been some night frosts, mainly for West Wales and with 5 of the past 7 nights having grass frost at this frost prone location, with an air frost last night down to -1.4c. Very cool across the Midlands on Friday, the 'high' at Coventry just 7.3c and the coldest max of the Season to date [url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]https://twitter.com/bablakewx[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some showery rain over the Midlands this morning clearing by mid afternoon, while for West Wales Saturday afternoon sees sunny intervals and some showers in places. Highs around 9 or 10c on Saturday. There will be a longer spell of rain this evening for mid and south Wales but this should miss most of the Midlands. Then clearing skies lead to a widespread ground frost overnight, and as with last night a few spots creeping below zero. A fine frosty start to Sunday and for the Midlands there will be plenty of sunshine all day. For West Wales it clouds over through the afternoon with rain into Pembrokeshire by sunset. Quite a cool day though no higher than 9 or 10c during the daytime. A rather wet and windy evening and night across Wales - the rain reaching the Midands in the early hours. A warm sector eventually arrives during Sunday night and so temperatures rise after midnight to 10 to 13c by dawn, mildest over SW Wales. A cloudy Monday morning with further rain and drizzle at times, this clears West Wales around lunchtime but may linger over the Midlands to the end of the afternoon. MIld and breezy on Monday, maxima in the 12 to 14c range. Another pulse of rain may affect Wales and the Midlands on Monday night but this is not certain. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]For Tuesday high pressure is ridging in from the SW so a mainly dry and bright day is expected with sunny spells but we are in cooler, fresher air once more so maxima no better than 11c for most. Clearing skies on Tuesday night with a widespread ground frost and even a touch of air frost in a few spots where it gets down to -1c. A belt of high pressure is over southern most England on Wednesday with low pressure passing north of Scotland. Generally speaking another dry day with sunny intervals and a touch milder perhaps highs at around 11c but not feeling it with a freshening westerly wind. Fronts associated with the low to the north affect West Wales later in the day with rain in places here by evening but staying dry for most of the Midlands. There could be a little rain overnight for the Midlands too, but clear spells and some blustery showers for West Wales.Thursday and we lie between high pressure to the SW and low over Scandinavia, a mostly dry, bright and quite cool day with a brisk NW breeze, temperatures only managing 9 or 10c. There could well be a widespread grass frost at least on Thursday night as the wind drops off. Another marked ridge of high pressure for Friday which should be dry with sunny spells and maxima 9 to 11c after the early frost and perhaps fog patches. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]No clear signals for next weekend, but probably not so mild and not so wet! [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=191992:PPVG89 (1) fine m dry Sun.png][attachment=191993:PPVJ89 damp mild Mon.png][attachment=191994:PPVO89 rain later WW Wed.png][attachment=191995:h850t850eu dry most of Wed.png][attachment=191996:PPVL89 dry Tue.png][attachment=191997:ecmt850.144 Th HSW LNE m dry r cool.png][attachment=191998:ecmt850.168 dry prospects R Fri.png][attachment=191999:ecmt850.192 cool some rain next weekend.png][attachment=192000:h850t850eu R dry bright Tue.png][attachment=191999:ecmt850.192 cool some rain next weekend.png][attachment=192000:h850t850eu R dry bright Tue.png][attachment=192001:prcpWarwickshire fairly dry week.png][attachment=192003:mgram_Birmingham m dry from Tue.png][/size][/font]
  14. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Very changeable with spells of rain and strong winds at times; localised flooding[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As expected the storm that affected the south and SE of England early on Monday missed Wales and the Midlands, although we did get the rain! Church Lawford having 33mm in the 24 hours to 1800, with many other places getting over half an inch (12.5mm). Then further rain at times through the remainder of the past week but with drier interludes also. On Tuesday night many parts saw a grass frost , and here at Llanwnnen the first air frost of the Season occurred, getting down to -0.6c. October ended up very mild, cloudy and very wet. Coventry with 146.4mm rain had it's wettest October since 1903 (162mm) Other monthly rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 214.2mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Pembrey Sands: 177.2mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Capel Curig: 333.5mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Daventry: 121.7mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington: 142.2mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another very unsettled and at times wet and windy week ahead with temperatures generally close to average (11c maxima). On top of the very wet October any additional bouts heavy rain will present the risk of localised flooding through the coming week. A vigorous low is crossing northern Britain through Saturday bringing strong to gale force winds. Winds increasing to give gale to severe gale force gusts through this afternoon and evening, 70mph gusts expected for coastal West Wales while 50mph gusts will occur inland which is likely to bring some trees down and cause minor structural damage. Further heavy showers for West Wales for Saturday night with hail in places, strong winds through the night easing by dawn. A brief respite between systems on Sunday, sunny intervals and just a few scattered showers, especially for West Wales. The next low then moves across SW England during Sunday evening, the rain from this pushing north into SW Wales by early evening. Always uncertainty with these south tracking lows as to how far north the rain will affect, but at this point heavy rain reaches as far as Ceredigion and Birmingham perhaps overnight Sunday but this may be subject change as the time approaches. Parts of the South Midlands may receive 20mm of rain from this system over Sunday night with localised flooding possible for counties such as Gloucestershire and Northamptonshire by Monday morning as the low clears SE England. At least we should miss the gale force winds associated with this low which stay to the south over northern France. The clearance occurs in the early hours with a grass frost in places. A bump of higher pressure for Monday which should be a mostly dry and bright if slightly cool day. Maxima on Monday 10c at best for most, although Pembrokeshire should manage 11c. Clearing skies for the Midlands on Monday evening may lead to a temporary touch of ground frost, but for West Wales the next band of rain arrives during the evening. This rain, some of which could be heavy, moves onto the Midlands after midnight, but clears through Wales around dawn. Early rain perhaps for the Midlands on Tuesday accompanied by strong SW winds. Bright and breezy for much of Tuesday, with blustery showers for West Wales, but most of the Midlands escaping these, highs on Tuesday 10 to 12c. Iffy for Bonfire night as some rain may be spreading into SW Wales through the evening, with the Midlands having a better chance of a dry one![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Timings may increasingly go astray from mid week with such a mobile, changeable Atlantic weather pattern! Wednesday looks like starting dry for some, and for the Midlands the next bout of rain may hold off until late afternoon or evening? However, an active weather system comes through later on Wednesday bringing rain to West Wales afternoon, some heavy, and this could well affect the Midlands too by evening. A milder day but becoming quite windy highs of 12 or 13c. So, eventually mild, wet and windy for Wednesday. A warm sector with rain at times for during Wednesday night, also some strong gusty winds, but the cold front comes through by dawn and temperatures drop to 7 to 9c. Sunny intervals and showers for Thursday, most of these for West Wales and parts of the Midlands have a dry afternoon. Highs on Thursday close to the early November average at 10 or 11c but with a keen westerly breeze. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Friday looks promising for another respite from the wind and rain as a weak ridge crosses the UK, however this may well alter to something more damp. Any dry interlude does not last with the next Atlantic low moving in on Saturday, this could bring more heavy rain and gales next weekend.[/size][/font]
  15. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain and strong winds at times (drier and brighter Tuesday and Wednesday); temperatures around average (12c)[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Very mild but wet last week, unseasonably mild on Monday night when many places only dropped to 14 or 15c, which is above the average maxima for late October! Copious rain, especially on Monday when much of Wales saw between one and two inches, and even more for some areas such as the Valleys. Further very wet weather on Friday too, Llanwnnen and many other parts of Wales having an inch of rain, although it reached a very mild 18c in the Midlands. Llanwnnen has had 109mm (well over 4 inches) rain in the past week, while notoriously wet Capel Curig in Snowdonia has had about 140mm. In contrast Church Lawford in Warwickshire has had less than one inch (25mm) during this period. With 118.5mm to date Coventry has already had its wettest October since 1987 (124mm) with more rain to come still. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The main meteorological interest this week has been the impending 'storm of the century' as greatly hyped up in a certain newspaper that does this week in week out. A lively depression is indeed likely to affect us in the next 24 hours or so, but comparisons with the Great Storm of 1987 (Michael Fish 'It's not a Hurricane') are ridiculous! Following the 'storm' then a changeable week, rain at times but with dry interludes and temperatures around the average for the end of October/ start of November (12c maxima), and as is usual West Wales receiving most of the wet weather. Firstly though, sunny intervals and blustery showers on Sunday, perhaps not too many for the Midlands but some heavy ones over Wales with the chance of a clap of thunder. Fresh to strong SW winds gusting gale force in exposed places on Sunday and rather mild highs of 13 or 14c. The fun and games begin this evening as a rapidly developing system quickly approaches from the Atlantic to our WSW! Currently at midday Sunday this feature is a mere 995mbar and well to the SW of Ireland, by midnight it is around 985mbar and is entering the Bristol Channel, and by midday Monday it is whistling away into the North Sea and could be registering pressure as low as 970mbar. Even at this late stage there is uncertainty over the development of this depression, although all models take it across South Wales and the Midlands through tonight. The model discrepencies are with just how deep and intense this developing feature will become as it crosses the UK, and there has been a marked trend away from more extreme scenarios in the past 24 hours model production, the low is now not expected to be as deep or intense as was being modelled just yesterday afternoon (such predictive 'downgrades' often happen at the last minute with our weather!). Close to the centre of the low (Wales and the Midlands) there will be little more than a moderate to fresh breeze for much of tonight, indeed significantly calmer than this afternoon will be, with the gales affecting southern England only - severe on the south coast itself. The main feature tonight will be rain rather than wind, this heavy at times, and will have set in later on Sunday evening replacing the showers over West Wales, but even this should not last long enough to present much in the way of flooding issues, even though up to an inch could fall by morning. In the wake of the low on Monday morning, a strong to gale force WNW wind may well develop, although even this is being shown now as much less marked. All in all much of Wales and the Midlands will not be getting much of a storm, rather a typical Autumn blow with gales in places. It could be a different picture for the far south and SE of England however where a rather severe storm may still occur. For Monday then a bright, windy day with blustery showers again, heavy and perhaps thundery in places, but parts of the Midlands escaping these. Cooler air on Monday maxima 11 to 13c. Winds gusting to gale force (40mph) and perhaps severe gale force (50mph) in exposed places such as coastal headlands and hills - an unremarkable event it may well turn out! Proviso: the system may yet confound and devastate us! [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The rest of the week straightforward to predict in comparison with the coming 24 hours! A drier, brighter couple of days before it turns unsettled with rain at times from Thursday. Blustery showers keep going through Monday night for West Wales but mostly dry for the Midlands, lows of 6 to 9c. Low pressure eases away to Scandinavia on Tuesday, which still sees some scattered showers, but with better dry, sunny intervals between as a ridge comes across Ireland. Rather cool and breezy on Tuesday highs generally 10 or 11c, but 12c for Pembrokeshire where it will be brighter. The ridge is over England by Tuesday night which is dry for most with clear periods and cooler down to 3c in places, with a local grass frost. High pressure close to the SE through Wednesday which is a mostly dry bright day, particularly for the Midlands. West Wales may cloud over through the afternoon as a trough approaches Ireland with some light rain and drizzzle in places by evening. Highs on Wednesday close to the average of 12 or 13c. The SW wind also picking up as we go through Wednesday becoming quite strong over Wales later. There could be further light rain at times for West Wales on Wednesday night but mostly dry for the Midlands. The trough slows down on Thursday and could give a wet day for Wales but may hold off until late afternoon for the Midlands, but most of us gettting some wet weather on Thursday. Milder air tempered by the cloud and rain on Thursday so around or a little above average at 11 to 13c maxima.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another transient ridge drying things up for Thursday night or Friday morning, but the weather turning decidely unsettled again as we head for the weekend.with a deep low NW of Scotand. Temperatures at least up to the average and mild at times with the SW flow. So a windy, fairly mild weekend in prospect seemingly, rain or showers at times and perhaps another shot at the 'storm of the century' come this time next week?![/size][/font]
    [attachment=190333:xPPVA89.png.pagespeed.ic.KWEvrb2AUK nascent storm.png][attachment=190321:ecmt850.024 not so severe more south.png][attachment=190323:PPVE89 perhaps not this extreme.png][attachment=190325:PPVG89 windy showery Mon.png][attachment=190327:PPVJ89 some showers Tue.png][attachment=190328:ecmt850.072 m dry Wed.png][attachment=190329:PPVL89 m dry Wed.png][attachment=190330:ecmt850.096 rain Thu.png][attachment=190332:ukprec rain Thu.png][attachment=190331:ecmt850.144 unsettled Fri pm.png][attachment=190334:ecmt850.168 unsettled windy rain times weekend.png][attachment=190335:h850t850eu unsetteld windy rain times wend.png][attachment=190336:ecmt850.192 storm of the century mark 2 Sun.png][attachment=190337:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion quite wet week.png][attachment=190338:prmslWarwickshire changeable week.png][attachment=190339:t850Warwickshire cool then mild.png][attachment=190340:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  16. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mild to very mild; spells of rain, some heavy, windy at times[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]After a cool start last week was mild for the most part with rain at times, most places receiving between one and two inches of rain through the past 7 days. Monday was very cool over the Midlands with Coventry reaching just 10c, 4c below the mid October average, then by Saturday 18c was recorded widely across the Midlands and also parts of Wales. Some places caught a thundery downpour on Saturday too. Another unsettled but mild week ahead with further heavy rain and strong winds at times.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    The early part of this week is controlled by a complex area of low pressure close to Ireland, so often wet and windy but mild. Sunday afternoon is showery, heavy and squally showers quickly passing through, the chance of a clap of thunder for some, although one or two spots missing them completely. Sunny intervals between and we are still in a very mild air mass, so temperatures up to 15 to 17c in spite of the fresh to strong SW wind. Wind and showers dying out this evening but with some still going for coastal Wales, but then wet weather arrives for SW Wales in the early hours reaching the Midlands by dawn. Another very mild night no lower than 10 or 11c. A spell of heavy rain for many through Monday morning accompanied by a strong SW to south wind, the rain turning lighter and patchier in the afternoon, although still some heavy bursts for West Wales. Mild highs around 15c. Further heavy rain at times during Monday night for Wales again, probably just light rain for the Midlands though. Very mild indeed on Monday night at no lower than 13c, more like it should be on a typical late October afternoon! More rain for all on Tuesday morning this clearing to sunny intervals and showers for the afternoon. Most of the showers affecting SW Wales where some will be heavy and thundery, but only a few for the Midlands on Tuesday afternoon, and with decent sunny breaks it will reach 17c here, while 15c a more typical figure for West Wales. The fresh to strong SW winds continue through Tuesday with gales for exposed coasts. Another double figure celsius night to follow with the wind still quite strong and showers keep going for western coasts.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    By Wednesday the low has transferred to the north of Scotand, this should mean a somewhat drier day but still many places catching the scattered showers, with sunny intervals between these. A fresh westerly by Wednesday afternoon, and cooler and fresher for West Wales at 13 or 14c maxima, but still 16 or 17c for the Midlands as the mild air hangs on here. A cooler night to follow with clear spells down to 5c in places, but holding closer to 10c for most coasts, and a dry night in the main. The next Atlantic low slowly approaches Ireland as we go through Thursday, and so the relatively dry interlude does not last! It could be a dry morning though, and with the Midlands perhaps missing the worst of the rain on Thursday, while West Wales, closest to the trough, looks set for more heavy rain at times, especially on Thursday afternoon. A wet day for Snowdonia then on Thursday where temperatures only manage 12c or so, while for West Wales generally a respectable 14c, and a mild 16c for the East Midlands. Although the southerly breeze will freshen on Thursday, strong winds are not expected. Further rain or showers for Thursday night which is a mild one once more. Little let up on Friday either with a trough of low pressure sat right over England and Wales, so further showers or longer spells of rain, perhaps heavy in places, but mild maxima of between 14 and 16c, and a breezy rather than especially windy day seems probable.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    A broad range of possibilities modelled for next weekend, the best that can be surmised is for a somewhat unsettled but drier couple of days compared with the previous week, so although there will be some further rain and perhaps also strong winds at times, reasonable drier interludes too, so not a washout weekend, and temperatures close to the average which is 12 or 13c at the end of October.[/size][/font]
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain at times; cool start, mild end to the week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The mild air was duly swept away during Wednesday by chilly north winds. The change most marked across the Midlands, on Tuesday it reached a warm 20.7c at Coventry, on Thursday just 11.5c and colder than it had been during Tuesday night! For West Wales Monday night was especially mild with a low of 14.6c at this location. Most of West Wales had a fairly dry week, just 7mm falling at Llanwnnen, but the Midlands saw very wet weather on Saturday with one inch (25.2mm) falling at Coventry in the 24 hours to Sunday morning and well over half an inch at Rugby. In contrast most of West Wales has been dry so far this weekend. More wet weather across the Midlands on Sunday morning, but hopeful that this is becoming more patchy from the east this afternoon. A rather cloudy Sunday afternoon with showery rain in places, but turning drier for the central and eastern Midlands, whereas the SW Midlands keeps the heavy rain, and this also moves into SW Wales, where there could be some heavy rain later this afternoon. A very cool day maxima of just 11 or 12c at best, but SW Wales nearer 14c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]An unsettled week ahead with rain at times and no prolonged dry weather, but at least temperatures rising to above average from mid week. The low pressure that is giving all the rain this weekend is sat over England on Monday, so further outbreaks of rain at times, some heavier bursts still possible. A cool and quite windy day (Midlands especially) and with all the cloud temperatures no higher than 11 or 12c again, although SW Wales with bright intervals could see 14c locally. Skies should clear on Monday night with a ground frost in places, lows close to zero for parts of mid Wales. The low slowly moves away east Tuesday, while the next front remains to our SW, so prospects of a much drier and brighter day although we cannot rule out the odd light shower. Sunny intervals through Tuesday, especially for West Wales, highs of 13 to 15c. Lighter winds on Tuesday. An active frontal system moves NE across all parts through Wednesday with heavy rain in places, temperatures struggling with the cloudy skies, no better than the average of 14 or 15c, and quite a strong SW wind may also develop on Wednesday. The worst of the rain should have cleared through West Wales mid afternoon and the Midlands by sunset, by which time we will be in mild Atlantic air with a few showers.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lull on Thursday seems likely as systems become very sluggish and the promise of a transient ridge for Wales and the Midlands. A mostly dry, bright and mild day but parts of West Wales catching showers afternoon, feeling very pleasant in the sunny intervals with temperatures of 15 or 16c. A mostly dry, mild night to follow. The end of the week and indeed next weekend is controlled by a large slow moving low sat to the west or SW or Ireland. This drags up mild south to SW winds but also brings rain bands from time to time, no doubt some heavy bursts of rain at times. With even brief sunny intervals however temperatures could reach 17 or 18c comfortably over next weekend, and winds should not be too strong either.[/size][/font]
  18. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild and mostly dry to mid week, then much cooler but bright; perhaps some rain for the Midlands next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A mild, rather humid and cloudy week gone, quite wet for Wales, while parts of the Midlands saw precious little rainfall, in what is turning into a dry Autumn here. Wettest parts were Anglesey and the Lleyn Peninsular in NW Wales where almost 2 inches (50mm) fell during Thursday and Friday, whilst Rugby had only 3mm and Coleshill, Warwickshire just 5mm during the whole week. The most notable aspect of the past week was the warm nights, only down to 14 to 16c during Tuesday to Thursday nights, which would be warm in mid Summer! Plenty of dry weather for all in the coming week, mild at first but cool from mid week. Next weekend and the Midlands could be seeing some useful rain but this is not certain.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A ridge of high pressure gives a fine and dry Sunday, feeling pleasant in the sunny spells this afternoon, highs above average at 16 or 17c. Probably too much of a breeze for mist and fog tonight, quite mild, temperatures no lower than 9c. High pressure still over southern parts through Monday, but fronts will be bringing rain to the north. Very mild SW winds and so with decent sunny spells, more especially for the Midlands, a warm day for October, parts of the Midlands hitting 20c on Monday afternoon. Mild for West Wales, but with more in the way of cloud and just sunny intervals highs nearer 17c here. There could be some drizzle for West Wales by evening. A weakening front brings light rain and drizzle overnight for Wales but mostly dry for the Midlands. Very mild on Monday night, minima betwen 12 and 14c. Relatively high pressure still present during Tuesday but with a dying front embedded within this, so a cloudier day in prospect, even a spit of light rain or drizzle in places, but many areas getting a dry day. The cloud may well break in the afternoon to give sunny intervals, and this will warm it up for the Midlands and SW Wales where 18 or 19c is likely, while for Snowdonia a touch cooler and fresher at 15c. Clearing skies on Tuesday night so a cooler one, down to 7c in places. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Changes from Wednesday as low pressure over Scandinavia forces high pressure to the west of the UK, and some chilly north winds eventually reach Wales and the Midlands. A bright morning at least on Wednesday, temperatures responding well over the Midlands and South Wales to sunny spells and where it could touch 16c (60f) so a fairly mild day here, but a cold front is pushing down from the NW afternoon and it clouds over with light rain at times eventually through the afternoon, more epecially for the north of our regions. With the cloud and damp on Wednesday afternoon Snowdonia will be cool, no higher than 12c here, but more generally 14c for West Wales. By Wednesday night we will be in our coolest air so far this Autumn, quite a contrast to the very mild air of the start of the week! Temperatures up at 5000 feet in the clouds on Thursday below zero when they were above 10c on Monday. A much cooler feel to things for the end of the week then. Wednesday night clear spells, the chance of a light shower along West Wales coasts, but a fresh wind preventing any frost, lows around 5c inland. On Thursday we are squeezed between a high to the west and low to the east with a cool northerly airstream but at least dry and bright weather. Temperatures well down for all, only reaching 9 to 12c in spite of the sunny spells! Coolest for North Wales, mildest for Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire where it is more sheltered from the fresh north wind.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Again, probably too much of a breeze on Thursday night for frost, even though the air is cold enough, winds perhaps falling light enough for a ground frost in parts of inland West Wales though, minima 2c locally here and 5c for the breezier Midlands. By the end of the week high pressure should be close to Scotland but with a low over the near Continent to our SE, which may spoil the weekend for some! Friday looking largely dry again, sunny spells, especially for West Wales, while perhaps more cloudy pm for the Midlands, even the chance of a some rain by evening here. A NE breeze for Friday but we will have lost the really chilly air, so maxima of 13 to 15c, only a little below average for mid October, perhaps even feeling quite pleasant for Cardigan Bay. For the weekend, speculative, but West Wales more likely to hang onto some dry and pleasant October weather with temperatures around 15c, while the proximity of low pressure to SE England means that throughout the weekend the Midlands is threatened with some rain at times, possibly heavy in places, and hence cooler here if this happens.[/size][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild, breezy and unsettled; rain or showers at times, especially during Wednesday/ Thursday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we were under a very warm air mass for late September early last week, the warmth was not realised in some areas due to persistent low cloud and even mist, this especially spoiling things for parts of the Midlands and SW Wales. Mumbles, Swansea failed to get above 17c on either Monday or Tuesday. For Cardigan Bay and Snowdonia it was glorious early in the week, on Monday Trawsgoed was the warmest place in the UK reaching 25c and it managed 23.6c here near Lampeter. Warmth returned on Friday and Saturday where many places reached 19 to 21c. The highest reading of the week at Coventry was 19.9c on Wednesday so nothing remarkable warmth-wise for the Midlands last week. Some very mild nights too, no lower than 15c on Sunday night here and 14c on Monday night at Coventry (the average late September night would record 8c) Very little rain about last week, less than a millimetre here and no measurable rain at Coventry, we missed the thunderstorms that affected SW England on Saturday. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday we are still in this warm drag of air from the SE off the Continent, and with a weakening front strung out across the south just the threat of some showery rain in places this afternoon, for most no more than a light shower or two, while many places remain dry again. Sunny intervals for Sunday afternoon and feeling pleasant with highs close to 20c. Through the first half of this week are between the influences of a large, slow moving low to the SW of Ireland and a high over Scandinavia, this set up dragging up relatively warm air from the south. Of course, as we are in October from Tuesday, a 'warm' day is anything above 18c as the averages rapidly taper off through Autumn and will soon be referred to as 'mild' instead! The low sends further fronts our way from the SW, again these tending to weaken over us. Another rather cloudy, quite warm day then for Monday, some areas fortunate to get pleasant sunny breaks, while others stay largely cloudy. No great amounts of rain being modelled for Monday, more a case of patchy, light showers occurring and with some areas staying completely dry. Highs on Monday are sun dependent, varying from just 16c where dull and damp, to a warm 20c where decent sunny intervals occur. More of the same on Tuesday, rather large amounts of cloud, bits and pieces of rain about, with a more definite chance that West Wales gets a proper soaking rather than a mere splash on Tuesday, while parts of the Midlands just about escaping with another generally dry and mild day. Temperatures reaching 16c where wettest and 19c where it stays dry. Tuesday night one of the milder nights of the coming week as we are in a warm sector, some areas no lower than 14c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wednesday, and the low is closer to western Ireland, so Wales certainly at risk of some wet weather at times, but lighter, patchier rain and drizzle for the Midlands. Very mild southerlies for Wednesday, temperatures between 18 and 20c, and even 21c is possible if it brightens over the Midlands, quite impressive levels now we are into October! A strengthening southerly wind through the day, especially for the Irish Sea where gale force gusts are likely. Further rain in places overnight Wednesday, this heavy at times for Wales, and a very mild, muggy night, minima between 13 and 15c. Thursday could be the wettest day of the week - low pressure by now centred NW of Ireland with a slow moving front strung out across western UK or Ireland, so at last even the Midlands should expect a soaking. Mild, but with a fresh south to SW wind, maxima between 16 and 18c, so feeling cooler with the wind and rain. The rain could still be going strong well into Thursday night, some places getting an inch in total on this day. By Friday the low is to the north of Scotland, still close enough to produce some further rain or showers, but less intense than on Thursday and with dry, brighter spells between. Cooler for Friday, especially West Wales, no higher than 15c here, while 17 or 18c in places for the Midlands, then with a cooler, fresher night to follow, minima below 10c for the first time this week. Winds will have substantially moderated by the end of the week. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The promise of a ridge of high pressure arriving in time for Saturday, which looks mainly dry if a touch cool, maxima down to 14 or 15c, and a little below the early October average. The fine weather could hang on into Sunday too, the Midlands may get away with a dry and bright Sunday too, however the next Atlantic low is heading for Ireland and so we may well see rain eventually for West Wales. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=186831:PPVG89 weakening fronts shower thret Mon.png][attachment=186832:ecmt850.048 r warm chance of shower Mon.png][attachment=186833:PPVJ89 rain esp WW Tue.png][attachment=186834:PPVM89 vm rain times windy in west Wed.png][attachment=186835:h850t850eu v mild rain times Wed.png][attachment=186836:metslp.96 wet windy west drier east Wed.png][attachment=186837:ecmt850.144 cooler unsettled FRi.png][attachment=186838:ecmslp.168 drier weekend rain threat Wales.png][attachment=186839:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion wet WW Wed Thu.png][attachment=186840:t850West~Midlands mild to Fri.png][attachment=186841:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  20. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry, bright and warm to mid week; some rain and cooler from Thursday/ Friday[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]A rather cool and unsettled week gone with rain at times, Wales wetter than the Midlands as is typical, Llanwnnen recieving 33mm in total during the past 7 days, compared with just 9mm at Coventry for example. Notably cool across the Midlands on Tuesday, highs of just 10 or 11c in places, at 11c maximum it was the coldest September day in Coventry since 1983 (thanks to Steve Jackson [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]@bablakewx[/url][font=arial][size=3] ). Then very cool for parts of Wales last Wednesday when it only managed 13.2c here at Llanwnnen, this some 5c below the average mid September figure. For most of us it has warmed up appreciably during this weekend thanks to a deep Tropical marime flow of air, courtesy of former hurricane Humberto - although not everywhere has seen the sunshine as yet! Where the sun did appear it was warm on Saturday reaching 22 or 23c. Most places seeing at least some warm sunshine up to Tuesday, possibly even Wednesday, with the trend being to cooler and more unsettled condtions as we progress through the week.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Warm last night, most places no lower than 14 to 16c, here it was the warmest night of September with a minimum of 15.1c, the average for a late September night being 9c.Some areas faring poorly on Sunday and failing to benefit from the warm air mass due to persistent low cloud. However, a better chance than on Saturday for decent sunny spells to develop more widely raising temperatures into the low to mid 70's F ( 21 to 24c). A sunny start evident on the Bablake webcam in Coventry this morning (although more cloudy there currently) - the Midlands a favoured area for sunny spells through this afternoon too, while for West Wales more pot luck. The north coast of Gwynedd sheltered by Snowdonia and parts of Cardigan Bay seeing sunshine at times this afternoon, so hopfeful that the Ceredigion coasts seeing some warm sunny spells eventually, along with places such as Llandudno and Moelfre, Anglesey. South facing coasts though always more likely to stick with the low cloud, places such as Tenby and Aberdaron perhaps staying mostly cloudy, even misty today, and so temperatures not rising much at all, no better than 19c here, although still pleasantly warm for late September. Another mild night to follow. By Monday the high pressure more favourably positioned to our east and winds coming more from the SE means a better prospect for most spots to join in with some very warm and sunny conditions. Plenty of sunshine then expected for most on Monday, highs generally 22 to 25c, way above average for this stage in Autumn! It is still possible that a few coastal places with onshore breezes miss out suffering persistent sea mist, areas like West Pembrokeshire perhaps, and if so no better than 19c here, but even Cardigan Bay coasts should be reaching a sunny 22c on Monday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Clear periods on Monday night with fog forming in places and so it may be a foggy start to Tuesday. Our high pressure is getting squeezed out by fronts to the SW and NE, although inbetween we stay dry and warm again. Good prospects again then for warm sunny spells on Tuesday once any fog clears, highs between 21 and 23c widely, and almost certainly the last time we experience such warmth until next Spring, although again cooler for some coasts. Dry for all on Tuesday. Mist and fog forming once more in places through Tuesday night where clear intervals permit. Another misty start for some on Wednesday, but then another generally dry day, even if pressure is relatively low by this point, with the fronts to our SW and NE not moving much and also fizzling out. A warm day with sunny intervals expected for Wednesday, there could be a light shower in places but generally dry once more with light winds. Highs on Wednesday 18 to 21c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Thursday is when the uncertainties and differing scenarios come into play this week. It is starting to turn more unsettled and somewhat cooler, although many models keep it on the mild side still. The warm air mass from the start of the week has most certainly evaporated away, and it will have turned cool over northern UK, but for Wales and England this cool air not likely to make headway south even by next weekend. The best description for Thursday would be that we are in a kind of 'No Man's Land' weatherwise, pressure neither high nor low, temperatures close to average (around 17c), variable cloud, but sunshine in places, mostly dry, but some places catching a shower! Friday, and a trough of low pressure is developing west of Ireland it would seem, although the uncertainty must be stressed and low pressure may be deflected more to our SW keeping it mainly dry for the end of the week? More probable a scenario though is that we see falling pressure for Friday and Saturday, with rain at times, but no washout expected, temperatures perhaps rather warm on Friday, but then closer to average over the weekend. Saturday would appear to be the day most likely to be wet, the trough then looks like slowly clearing east by Sunday which would be a brighter and drier day. Looking very unsettled, wet and windy at times, as we move into October...[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=186152:PPVG89 v warm sunny Mon.png][attachment=186154:ecmt850.048 v warm sun Mon.png][attachment=186153:PPVJ89 dry warm between fronts.png][attachment=186155:ecmt850.096 m dry warm Wed.png][attachment=186156:metslp.120 NML Thu.png][attachment=186157:PPVO89 m dry rel mild Thu.png][attachment=186158:ecmt850.144 FRi r warm but rain to WW.png][attachment=186159:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend but mild.png][attachment=186160:prcpWest~Midlands unsettled from Thu.png][attachment=186161:mgram_Birmingham warm to mid week unsettles ending.png][/size][/font]
  21. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and unsettled with rain at times; potentially dry and warm next weekend[/b]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Plenty of cloud last week, cool for the most part, although it briefly warmed up on Thursday when most of us reached 19 to 22c. Thursday was the only day to get above 17c here, the average September maxima being 18c, so a decidedly cool week gone. Mostly dry early in the week, but then wet at times during Thursday and Friday. Coldest night of the Autumn to date last night here, the low of 0.8c and a ground frost. Over the Midlands it got down to 4 or 5c quite widely. A cool, unsettled and at times wet and windy week ahead, although big improvement hopes for next weekend to drier and warmer conditions thanks to a former hurricane![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    The first deep Autumn low is bringing strong to gale force winds and spells of rain and drizzle for Sunday afternoon, wind gusts peaking at 50 to 60mph in places, which will cause some damage and falling branches. The rain turning heavier this afternoon, especially for West Wales, where there could be over an inch in total. By midnight this low has a central pressure of 964mbar and is positioned SE of Iceland, fuelled by a jet stream which during Monday will be blasting through the UK at almost 200mph some 30,000 feet above our heads! The main rain clears through early this evening, but with rain and hail showers rattling into coastal areas of west and north Wales throughout the night.. Strong to gale force winds continuing overnight but these will have veered to NW from the SW that they are currently. The deep low is only moving slowly to the north of Scotland throughout Monday, so strong NW winds continuing, again gusting to gale force at times. Very cool and showery on Monday, plenty of blustery showers coming through, these heavy with hail in places, this especially for West Wales. Highs only between 11 and 13c, well below average for September. Cold enough for some sleet or snowflakes in the showers for high up on Snowdonia! Parts of the Midlands missing the worst of the showers on Monday where shelter is afforded by the Welsh hills. The worst of the wind should be easing as we go into Monday evening. The low still close by over the North Sea during Tuesday, with the complication of another secondary system crossing SW parts early in the day. A further scattering of showers on Tuesday, with a more general wet area tracking somewhere across Wales and the SW during the morning, the exact location uncertain, but mid and south Wales and the SW Midlands (Cotswolds) could be in for a wet Tuesday morning. A drier afternoon but still the odd shower in places, and another cool day, but at least it should be a lot less windy on Tuesday, highs only managing 13 or 14c. With clearing skies and less wind a chilly night to follow, down to 5c in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    On Wednesday although the by now filling low is still sat over the North Sea feeding cool NW winds, a ridge of high pressure is trying to move into the west but not really succeeding. The proximity of the ridge damping down the shower activity, although still some coming into NW Wales and through the Cheshire Gap to the NW Midlands especially, one of those days where some areas get a pleasant dry and bright day though! Cool again on Wednesday, highs between 13 and 15c. These hints of a ridge flatten on Thursday with further Atlantic fronts bringing some rain at times, although probably not so heavy this bout. A milder sector of air on Thursday, but highs no better than average reaching 15 to 18c with a keen westerly breeze. Still a rather unsettled look to the charts even on Friday but with higher pressure close to our south. Rain fronts in the vicinity of the UK though on Friday, so still the chance of some rain or showers in places, but many of us could escape with a generally dry day, but still on the cool side.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Next weekend is quite interesting as the ex hurricane Humberto gets absorbed into the polar jet, and as it does injects some warm and humid air in our direction! Good signs then of high pressure over the UK next weekend, with low pressure out west of Ireland dragging up this warm air from the sub-Tropical SW. Still a little too far off to be a certain prediction, but next weekend potentially dry and warm with some sunshine, and temperatures may be into the low 70's F (above 21c) come this time next week (next Sunday afternoon). [/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=185107:PPVE89 964 L Mon cool windy showery.png][attachment=185108:viewimage 200mph jet.png][attachment=185115:viewimage v cool windy showery Mon.png][attachment=185109:PPVJ89 rain threat Tue.png][attachment=185110:viewimage wet Tue morning SW.png][attachment=185111:PPVL89 Wed cool drier localised showers.png][attachment=185112:PPVO89 rain times THu.png][attachment=185113:metslp.120 next spell rain THu.png][attachment=185114:ecmt850.096 further rain band Thu.png][attachment=185116:ecmt850.168 ex Humberto dry warm weekend.png][attachment=185117:h850t850eu ex humberto injects warmth our way weeknd.png][attachment=185118:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion unsettels rain times all week WW.png][attachment=185119:prmslWest~Midlands settling weekend.png][attachment=185120:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  22. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, some rain or showers and equally some fine, dry days; cool start, warming mid week[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Warm, even some very warm weather last week, 27.2c at Coventry on Wednesday, 25.2c near Aberystwyth and 23.7c at Lampeter. Cooler air infiltrated West Wales during Thursday and the Midlands by Friday which was 11c cooler on than Thursday, a maximum of just 13.3c at Bablake School, Coventry. Then Saturday was very cool for West Wales,14.3c the 'high' here at Llanwnnen, and a decidedly cold 10.6c at Capel Curig, Snowdonia. Some rain or showers too over recent days for all of us, although not as wet northern Britain has been lately. Last week's anticipated Iberian high in fact turned out to be a cold pool cut off low over the UK, hence the warmth has got no nearer than Scandinavia where it reached 25c in places on Saturday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Heavy showers have been lingering over Cardigan Bay coasts since Saturday evening, giving 2 inches rain to the Barmouth area, while some other parts of West Wales have remained generally dry. Further heavy showers this afternoon across West Wales, the chance of a clap of thunder in a few spots, however some places more inland escaping, and a mostly dry and bright afternoon for the Midlands, just the odd scattered shower here. Highs on Sunday a cool 14c for Cardigan Bay coasts, 16c for brighter inland lowland Wales, and a pleasant 18c over the Midlands. Showers dying out tonight and with clearing skies a chilly night, lowest readings around 5c, so not quite a ground frost. Relatively low pressure again over the UK for Monday so further showers for many areas, Wales especially likely to see some heavy ones, a rather cloudy day too with limited sunny intervals. A decidedly cool day, especially where there are plentiful of showers. A chill NW breeze on Monday highs just 13 to 16c, well below the September average (18 or 19c). High pressure is ridging into NW Britain on Tuesday, whilst a low pressure system develops over the North Sea this giving a cool northerly wind over Wales and England. Wales has a mostly dry day with sunny spells on Tuesday, most of the Midlands likewise, although rain affecting Eastern England could push into the east of this region as we go through the day. For most though, largley dry on Tuesday, cool though, highs between 15 and 18c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Any rain dies out over the Midlands on Tuesday night, with clearer skies out west, a chilly night lows 6 to 9c. The ridge has extended across the UK for Wednesday, set to be one of the better days of the week. A dry and bright day, some decent sunny spells, warmer too, temperatures up to at least the average at 17 to 20c. Clearing skies and a rather cool night to follow. High pressure does not last as the ridge topples away south during Thursday permitting fronts to cross northern UK. The Midlands could well manage another mainly dry day out of it however, while more cloud and a little light rain or drizzle at times for Wales. A warm airmass for Thursday, with moist, rather humid Atlantic air, so given any sunny breaks the temperature will shoot up. Sunny intervals should occur for at least the Midlands and where the potential is there for 24c to be reached, while more generally expect 19 to 22c. We should still be within the warm sector through Thursday night, a mild one no lower than 13c, and by which time a more definite rain band could be strung out across Wales and the Midlands, so quite a wet night in places, pulses of heavy rain possible.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]This rain does not herald a full blown Atlantic unsettled spell as yet though, as the low is centred well to our north in the vicinity of Iceland and high pressure is never so far to our SW. For Friday, the cold front attempts to clear through taking further rain across many places. Should the front develop a wave it could slow down and produce quite a wet day on Friday, or - it may travel though more swiftly with a brighening fresher afternoon, at least for more northern parts of our regions. The usual caveats then applicable to Friday and the weekend, but another transient ridge could give a fine if coolish Saturday, followed by a trough, some cloud, wind and rain for next Sunday - changeable in other words![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=184445:ecmt850.048 Showery cool Mon.png][attachment=184446:ecmt850.072 LE HW m dry cool Tue.png][attachment=184447:PPVJ89 m dry cool Tue.png][attachment=184455:h850t850eu warmer dry bright Wed.png][attachment=184456:metslp.120 R topples TR into W.png][attachment=184448:h850t850eu m dry Thu.png][attachment=184449:ecmt850.120 WS Thu some drizzle west.png][attachment=184450:ecmt850.144 cooler drying Fri.png][attachment=184451:ukprec wet in places Fri or clearing sooner.png][attachment=184452:ecmt850.168 fine Sat rain Sun.png][attachment=184453:h850t850eu fine R Sat r cool.png][attachment=184457:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=184458:prcpWarwickshire low spikes not so wet a week.png][attachment=184459:prmslAbertawe~-~Swansea.png][/size][/font]
  23. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry; warm to mid week, then briefly cooler; warming, perhaps eventually thundery weekend[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Another mostly dry week gone just the odd spit of drizzle. Temperatures have been average to warm, highest readings of around 23c for West Wales on Monday, while Coventry and many other parts of the Midlands reached between 22 and 25c each day up to Friday. Inspite of being mostly dry and quite warm it was not though such a sunny week, with quite a lot of cloud at times, especially for West Wales. Cooler on Saturday with fresher air behind a cold front, the maximum of 16.7c here the lowest of the month, while Warwickshire managed 19c. August was a rather warm month with variable rainfall but generally near average totals and so not a bad finale to a rather dry, warm and quite sunny Summer 2013![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    August rainfall totals:[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Llanwnnen 82mm = near normal[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    Llanelli: 95.2mm = near normal[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    Bablake, Coventry = 49.3mm = rather dry[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    Long Lawford, Rugby 34mm = dry[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    A chilly start to September/ Meteorological Autumn, down to 4c over parts of West Wales on Saturday night and 6c at Church Lawford in the Midlands, the lowest figures since June. A pleasant dry weekend gone if a little cool in places. The coming week sees a predominance of dry weather yet again and with temperatures rising into the 'very warm' category, reaching 25c for at least the Midlands by mid week, not half bad for September, but far behind September 1906 when it was in the mid 30's celsius over the Midlands, the most incredible September heat on record! Although not hot, this week will be more akin to Summer than Autumn.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Milder on Sunday night with the westerly breeze. High pressure close by to our SW on Monday, which is set to be a dry and warm day with plenty of sunshine. A fly in the ointment may be sea fog or low cloud drifting onto Cardigan Bay coasts at times as there will be a gentle moist NW drift, so if this occurs highs restricted to just 18c in places like Aberporth. Generally for inland West Wales though pleasantly warm with sunny spells and highs around 20c, while mostly sunny and 23c for the Midlands on Monday. Clearing skies and lows around 10c on Monday night. The high centred over southern England on Tuesday which should be sunny and warm for virtually all places! Maxima ranging from 19c for coastal West Wales, 22c for inland West Wales, and 25c for parts of the midlands. Light variable winds on Tuesday. The high edges away east on Wednesday but is close enough for another dry, reasonably sunny day for most. A very warm southerly drag of air for Wednesday, temperatures pushing 80f in reaching 26c locally over the Midlands! Warm for Wales too, 23c in places here with decent sunny spells.[/size][/font]
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    Changes on Thursday as a trough moves in from the west, however this may not have much if any rain or showers on it. The front will though bring more cloud and a few showers to West Wales and considerably cooler temperatures as the air comes back from off the Atlantic. The Midlands may well see one more fine and warm day though as the trough tends to slow down over the west. Big contrast in temperature likely on Thursday from west to east, so West Wales no higher than 18c, while the East Midlands could manage 24c. The cool air should extend to the Midlands too overnight Thursday so clearing skies and lows of 6c in places. Friday somewhat uncertain as to whether the trough has cleared SE England or not? It is possible that the warmth hangs on over SE England with some thundery showers affecting there, and it is possible some of these will push into the Midlands later on Friday or overnight. For the west though on Friday, it looks more definite a case for being under a cool ridge of high pressure, so a fine, bright day likely here. Highs on Friday 16 to 18c, rather cool for early September.[/size][/font]
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    Greater uncertainty still for next weekend, with a plume of hot air over the near Continent while the cool ridge of high pressure sits over northern UK. There is likely to be a heat low over Iberia and it is the position and orientation of this that dictates whether Wales and England gets some of this very warm air pumped around the low from off Europe? Best guess is a mainly dry and rather warm Saturday, perhaps turning increasingly warm and humid with the risk of thundery rain for Sunday - although equally it could stay fine and dry? Temperatures over northern France could well be up to 30c next weekend.[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=183866:PPVG89 dry warm Mon.png][attachment=183867:ecmt850.048 warm dry Tues.png][attachment=183868:PPVK89 v warm dry Wed.png][attachment=183869:ecmt850.072 v warm Wed.png][attachment=183870:ecmt850.096 cool down west Thu.png][attachment=183872:ukmaxtemp temp contrast THu.png][attachment=183871:ecmt850.120 m dry r cool Fri.png][attachment=183873:h850t850eu H SCot m dry r warm weekend showers S.png][attachment=183874:ecmt850.168 v warm plume and thunder potential Sunday.png][attachment=183875:prmslWest~Midlands Tr Thu otherwise rel high.png][attachment=183876:prmslSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire H or L next wend.png][attachment=183877:mgram_Birmingham great difference from Fri.png][/size][/font]
  24. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A mainly dry week gone, with just a couple of mm falling at Llanwnnen and Coventry, however parts of the Midlands did get wetter weather for a time on Friday and Saturday, although the Midlands narrowly missed out on the heavy rain that affected Eastern England throughout Saturday. Temperatures average to warm early last week, then on Thursday very warm for Wales, Llanwnnen reaching 25.7c with plenty of sunshine, while parts of the Midlands managed 25c on Friday - by which time West Wales had cooled down to average. Saturday was the coolest day of the month at Llanwnnen with a high of just 17.4c, while Capel Curig in Snowdonia only reached a decidedly Autumnal 15c. Very cool last night across Wales, the low at Bala just 2.6c and 3c at Sennybridge - a taste of Autumn![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]With relatively low pressure over the UK on Sunday, the morning sunshine in the west may flatter to deceive, with cloud building up to produce a scattering of showers during the afternoon, especially well inland, although coasts could well remain sunny all afternoon! Conversely the cloud is breaking up over the Midlands with sunny spells developing along with a few sharp showers. Highs on Sunday a warm 20c for West Wales and 23c for brighter parts of the Midlands. Clearing skies tonight, lows generally 10 to 12c. A ridge of high pressure should kill off the showers for Bank Holiday Monday, which for 99% of us is a lovely warm and sunny day! Highs on Monday 22 to 25c widely with only gentle breezes. A clear and comfortably cool night follows the warmth, lows 7 to 10c for most places. The ridge holds over the UK on Tuesday although a weakening cold front is moving through it from the NW later in the day. Another fine and warm day for most, decent sunny spells, especially the Midlands and South Wales. It may though cloud over for Wales through Tuesday afternoon with heavy showers breaking out in places, chiefly over the hills. Maxima generally 21 to 24c with very little wind. Clear spells overnight temperatures no lower than 10c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Mid week and high pressure still sits over Wales and England, so another largely dry and warm day on Wednesday, just the isolated light shower in places, sunny spells again and highs between 21 and 24c, a bit cooler for coastal West Wales as onshore breezes develop. The ridge holding sway across southern Britain during Thursday too, another fine and warm day with sunny spells, although sea fog and drizzle may affect some stretches of coast with a moistening SW drag of air by this stage, any fog most likely for Cardigan Bay. Maxima on Thursday generally 19 to 23c, but cooler where foggy along coasts. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The weather may be turning more unsettled by the end of the week but this by no means certain at this stage, as the various models are showing a sharp split in their interpretations of the atmosphere from Friday. One scenario is for a marked trough to cross the UK during late Friday or Saturday bringing a spell of rain, strong winds and much cooler conditions, while the alternative is for high pressure to maintain over or close us, keeping it mostly dry, bright and reasonably warm. Generally speaking though, very little rain is being modelled, even by the weekend, and so any fronts are suggested to pass through quickly, and with only a short spell of rain expected. The worst outcome would be that of latest ECM model run which would see a decidely Autumnal cool, windy and showery weekend, but this is a marked 'outlier' amongst the overall model suite, and a fine and dry, if perhaps cooling weekend is more likely an outcome. In any case, early September is promising further dry, settled, and warm weather.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=183410:PPVG89 warm sunny BHM.png][attachment=183411:ecmt850.072 M dry warm Tues.png][attachment=183412:PPVJ89 Warm dry Tue perhaps clouding over WW later.png][attachment=183413:PPVL89 dry warm Wed.png][attachment=183414:ecmt850.096 warm dry mid week.png][attachment=183415:metslp.96 fine warm mid week too.png][attachment=183416:h850t850eu fine dry but cooling weekend.png][attachment=183417:ecmt850.168 cool windy showery weekend is outlier.png][attachment=183418:mgram_Birmingham m dry warm week, divergence FRi Sat.png][attachment=183419:prcpWarwickshire mainly dry week.png][attachment=183420:prmslAbertawe~-~Swansea H all week.png][/size][/font]
  25. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Plenty of dry and warm weather, perhaps breaking down over the holiday weekend?[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][b]The week gone:[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A cooler feel early last week, temperatures only reached 17.5c on Monday at Llanwnnen (the coolest day for 6 weeks), and 17.8c at Coventry on Tuesday, we did though get warm, but moist air Thursday into Friday, 25c being reached at Coleshill and Wellesbourne in Warwickshire on Thursday with some pleasant sunny spells too. Not much rain until Thursday, the very moist, warm air enveloping the UK then produced copious rainfall through Thursday night, which was not anticipated to this level in last week's guide! Trawsgoed, Ceredigion, was the wettest spot in the UK in the 24 hours to 6am Friday receiving 58.6mm rainfall, and many parts of Wales had betwen 25 and 50mm (one to two inches) rain during Thursday and Friday. All this rain caused localised flooding in Mid and North Wales on Friday and even a landslide onto the A487 near Corris, South Gwynedd. Nor did the Midlands escape the deluge, with Coventry having 26mm in the 24 hours to 0900 Friday, however much of the Midlands had less at 10 to 15mm. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica][b]The week to come:[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A much better prospect in the coming week with plenty of dry and warm, even very warm weather, however this may not last over the Bank Holiday weekend. Saturday's damp weather has moved off leaving a mainly dry and bright Sunday with just a few scattered showers in places. Highs on Sunday afternoon between 19 and 21c with a moderate westerly breeze. Clearing skies and reducing breezes tonight means a cooler night than of late (incidentally last Wednesday was the warmest night of this Summer here, a low of just 16.5c), temperatures down to 8 to 10c away from coasts. A ridge of high pressure builds in from the SW through Monday, a dry and bright day, some decent sunny spells, only the isolated light shower possible over Welsh hills, and a refreshing westerly breeze, highs of 18 or 19c for West Wales and 21c for the Midlands. Clear periods and quite a cool night again follows, minima ranging from 13c on coasts to 8c for some inland rural spots. High pressure over southern England on Tuesday, warm and sunny for the Midlands, sunny spells too for West Wales, although perhaps clouding over later in the afternoon here. Highs on Tuesday a pleasant 20 or 21c for West Wales and 24c for the Midlands.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A weakening disturbance tracks close to NW UK on Wednesday, so perhaps more in the way of cloud and even a shower or two in places, and a very slight chance of isolated thunder, but many places remaining dry. Rather warm and humid on Wednesday, maxima generally between 21 and 25c, highest over the Midlands, where warm sunny breaks are more likely afternoon. Clear spells overnight with lows 11 to 14c. High pressure centred to our NE over Scandinavia on Thursday with a warm to very warm SE to east flow advecting our way off the Continent. Models varying in just how warm this air will be, but the potential for temperatures to reach 27c 80f in places on Thursday, and with plenty of strong sunshine and gentle breezes. A clear night to follow so at least temperatures drop to a comfortable 11 to 14c. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Diverging model outputs from Friday - as should be expected with a Bank Holiday weekend imminent! A lot of uncertainty then with the holiday weekend, and some may be disappinted after all the media hype for a prolonged late August heatwave, conversely it may still turn out warm and reasonably dry! High pressure may well though not be in ascendance by next weekend, although we may avoid a washout weekend at least. Friday first, and another very warm day is likely, but there are suggstiions of a thundery breakdown later in the day and into Saturday. Sunny spells should be expected on Friday with maxima of 23 to 27c widely, and then by evening some showers or thunderstorms could be affecting some areas.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]The all important weekend, and the latest GFS model brings a low right over Wales and England, producing showers and longer spells of rain along with a marked cool down. That's the bad news..the good news is that this particular model run is a marked 'outlier' with little support from the rest of the 'model suite'! Here, we shall 'go' with the ECM model along with much previous recent GFS output which has shown reasonable consistency in having high pressure over northern UK, and so painting a somewhat drier even pleasant picture. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Next weekend then is expected to see plenty of dry and warm weather with sunny intervals at least, but also the risk of some rain or showers at times. Greatest risk the further south you are of some thundery rain or showers, and more especially on Saturday it is felt, as ECM has a thundery low over northern France for Saturday. West Wales looks most favoured for some warm and fairly sunny conditions at times over the Bank Holiday weekend due to the anticipated NE flow which will serve to break the cloud crossing the hills to our east. [/font]
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