Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

TonyH

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,811

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by TonyH

  1. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]The week gone was mixed[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The low pressure at the start of the week gave some large rainfall totals over Wales and parts of the West Midlands. In the 48 hours up to Monday evening Mumbles near Swansea had a massive 76mm (3 inches), while Hereford had 45.2mm. Monday was the coolest day at Llanwnnen since July 3rd with a cool high of just 17.7c, although the Midlands had a warmer day. Some pleasant weather after all the rain, it became quite warm with sunny spells, highest readings of the week being 22 to 24c. However there were some chilly August nights, down to 7 to 9c on a couple of nights. Funnel clouds were photographed on Wednesday afternoon, these spawned by a scattering of heavy downpours, one was observed near Brecon, and one from Cross Hands, Carmarthenshire. A funnel cloud would become a tornado if it reached the ground but these apparently did not. Tirabad, in the Cambrian hills of SW Powys, received 37mm in just 3 hours from these downpours on Wednesday, while villages just a few miles away had next to no rain. Generally though, most of us have only seen very small amounts of rain since Monday's deluges, little more than a millimetre at Coventry, for example, during these past 5 days.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]The week ahead: Changeable; dry and bright at times, some rain at times, near average temperatures[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    High pressure is close enough to our south most of this coming week to weaken the fronts set to cross the UK from time to time, a generally westerly airstream, with temperatures close to the August averages, so expect highs between 18 and 23c most days, highest over the Midlands. Sunny intervals and just a few scattered showers on Sunday afternoon, highs of 18 to 21c with any showers largely dying out tonight, just a few may continue along some Welsh coasts, quite chilly down to 8 to 12c, A rather cool and showery NW flow on Monday, showers heavy in places, hail a possibility, but with some areas missing them as is usual in such set ups, some pleasant sunny intervals too, highs ranging from 17 or 18c for West Wales to 20c for the Midlands. Another cool night follows as clear spells develop, down to 7c in places but milder for West Wales coasts, nearer 12c here. A weak ridge of high pressure exerts from our SW for Tuesday but with a weak front within it producing quite a bit of cloud cover, even the odd light shower in places. Some sunny intervals on Tuesday, highs 19c for West Wales and 21c for the Midlands, so a touch warmer. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    On Wednesday a band of high pressure lies tantalisingly close to southern UK, but perhaps not quite close enough for a fine day everywhere! The Midlands most likely to manage a dry day with sunny spells on Wednesday, while weak fronts move into Wales in the afternoon threatening some rain and drizzle here, more especially later in the day. Warm with the sunny breaks for the Midlands up to 22c, but only 19c at best for cloudier West Wales. Mild SW winds and cloud for Wednesday night temperatures falling no lower than 14c. High pressure has slipped off into the Continent by Thursday, with a trough of low pressure erratically crossing the UK, bringing spells of rain, some heavy bursts in the west, although the Midlands could manage a dry morning. A rather warm, humid airmass for Thursday with SW winds, plenty of cloud but also a few sunny intervals which would readily lift temperatures to 23c, but more generally 19 or 20c where damp/ wet. Another mild night to follow with futher rain or showers in places, minima around 14c. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Friday, and the uncertainties magnify as tends to be the case, however strong suggestions that another ridge follows the trough, so the hope at least of a fine, bright and fairly warm day! Just bear in mind that in this rather mobile Atlantic set up timings can be out at this forecasting range, and the ridge could be chased off by another trough through Friday bringing some more rain, especially to Wales, or in another synoptic evolution the ridge gets flattened off leaving a rather cloudy disappointing day with spits of rain. Next weekend and the changeable theme continues, a deep low pressure is close to Iceland with a fairly strong SW to westerly flow over the UK. Bands of rain but with dry spells between, and prospects of large amounts of rain remain low.. sprinkles rather than downpours for most then, and with temperatures continuing around the average.[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=181490:PPVG89 r cool showery Mon.png][attachment=181491:h850t850eu r cool showery Mon.png][attachment=181492:ecmt850.072 R m dry Tue to Wed.png][attachment=181501:h850t850eu wk R m dry Tue.png][attachment=181493:PPVL89 warm dry Mids little rain pm WW.png][attachment=181494:PPVO89 rain at times Thu esp WW.png][attachment=181495:metslp.120 rain from W Thu.png][attachment=181496:ecmt850.120 Tr to Wales Thu rain at times all.png][attachment=181497:ecmt850.168 DL SE Ice windy some rain weekend.png][attachment=181499:t850Warwickshire.png][attachment=181498:prcpAbertawe~-~Swansea small amounts rain this week.png][attachment=181500:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  2. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mixed; some rain and showers, some dry, bright and warm weather[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]July 2013 was the warmest of any month since July 2006, monthly mean temperatures of 19c for Coventry, it does not often get much warmer! Rainfall wise downpours and thunderstorms in the final week turned it into a rather wet month for parts of the Midlands, while West Wales had well below average rain for the month: [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry 64.8mm [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url][/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby 50mm [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 40.6mm [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 44.2mm [url="http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=51.680%2C-4.141&sp=ICARMART4"]http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=51.680%2C-4.141&sp=ICARMART4[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It was also a very sunny month with over 300 hours sunshine for Anglesey and Pembrokeshire. [url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts"]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It cooled off early last week only to hot up in many places on Thursday, which saw the highest UK reading of the year, 34c at London Heathrow, while Coventry and much of the Midlands reached 31c, again the hottest of the Summer to date. Meanwhile in Wales some of us were not so fortunate with Thursday's brief heatwave, as the warm airmass contained a lot of moisture resulting in a rather cloudy day over Carmarthenshire and keeping temperatures down to around 22c, while neighbouring Ceredigion fared better seeing sunny spells and maxima of 25c. Many places experienced showers and thunderstorms again last week, parts of the Midlands quite badly hit on Monday and again on Friday evening but more localised. Parts of West Wales saw thunder and lightning too especially on Friday evening. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]This coming week will continue in the rather unsettled vein, a sluggish pattern of slow moving but not so deep lows trying to make up their minds where to soak, interspersed with weak transient ridges of high pressure. So, while it will be wet at times, showers or even some longer spells of rain never far away, some days this week will turn out very pleasant and feeling warm in the sunshine, all in all a typical week in a british Summer! During Sunday and Monday we are affected by a slow moving trough of low pressure bringing spells of rain and showers, very heavy at times, throughout the rest of Sunday, overnight and well into Monday. Already on Sunday parts of Carmarthenshire have had almost two inches of rain with localised flooding likely? Heaviest of the rain this afternoon over Mid Wales, more patchy, showery rain for South and North Wales and the Midlands. Wales seeing further rain, heavy at times on Sunday night, very wet in places, there will be one to two inches of rain totalling up widely by morning. Much of the rain intermittent and light for the Midlands until morning when heavier bursts affect here too, and the rain on Monday lasts through much of the afternoon, whereas it should have cleared West Wales by around midday. Needless to say a lot of cloud on Monday, although it should brighten through the afternoon over Wales, maximum temperatures betwen 18 and 21c a little below the August averages. Clearing skies on Monday night and fairly low mimima of 7 to 10c, except on coasts adjacent to the warm Summer seas.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The weakest of high pressure ridges on Tuesday which is a generally dry and bright day, but with a few showers scattered about. Feeling warm in the sunny spells, highs around 21c for West Wales and 23c for the Midlands. On Wednesday it looks like we are inbeween lows, one just to our SW, the other over the near Continent, a slack pressure pattern over us so light winds. Probably decent sunny spells again on Wednesday but with more in the way of showers for the afternoon, heavy and perhaps thundery in places. Another day where it feels pleasant in any sunny breaks and given the light winds, highs between 20 and 23c, but not so good under the showers! Just the possibilty that one of our adjacent lows decides to encroach further our way to produce some longer spells of rain, but sun and some sharp showers the most likely outcome for Wednesday. Thursday too looking another pleasant enough day, another weak transient ridge expected so few if any showers and plenty of dry weather with sunny spells. Rather warm too, highs 21 to 25c, best for the Midlands. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Friday, and relatively high pressure over southern Britain, but with weak fronts crossing the UK from off the Atlantic introducing moist, rather humid air. These fronts look weak and should only produce cloud and a light intermittent rain at times, more especially over West Wales, with perhaps brighter intervals for the Midlands. Damp West Wales coolest on Friday having highs below 20c, but perhaps 23c where it brightens for the Midlands. The mixed bag continues next weekend, so further pleasant and warm weather at times (Saturday or Sunday?), while equally some rain at times (Saturday or Sunday?). One fine and one damp, perhaps wet day the form horse then and anywhere that gets a completely dry weekend most fortunate indeed![/size][/font]
    [attachment=180791:PPVG89 rain Mon clears WW pm.png][attachment=180792:PPVJ89 Tue wk R m dry r warm.png][attachment=180793:ecmslp.048 wk R m dry Tue.png][attachment=180794:ecmt850.072 between lows sun showers Wed.png][attachment=180795:PPVO89 wk R m dry r warm Thu.png][attachment=180796:metslp.120 moist damp air for Fri.png][attachment=180797:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=180798:prcpWarwickshire showery week.png][attachment=180799:t850Abertawe~-~Swansea ave to warm week.png]
  3. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cooler with rain or showers at times; brief hot interlude Thursday to Friday; weekend very uncertain[/b]

    Our heatwave came to an end last week, spectacularly for parts of the Midlands with thunderstorms, Nottingham getting almost 3 inches rain in 24 hours between Monday evening and Tuesday evening, from a succession of thunderstorms causing severe flooding in the city and environs. Monday was the last really hot day, reaching 31c across Warwickshire and 25 to 28c for much of Wales. The rain held off for us in West Wales, where it was not until Wednesday night that some rain fell and then just 3mm at Llanwnnen, barely enough to settle the dust. Although cooler it was still a warm week for all places, and even by Saturday temperatures were reaching 22 to 26c widely. More heavy rain and thunderstorms for the Midlands on Saturday evening, over half an inch in just 30 minutes causing flooding in places such as Coventry, the total rain for the 24 hours to 10am this morning being 31.1mm at Bablake School, Coventry and 24mm fell at Rugby, no doubt some places received a lot more than these spot figures, such was the localised flooding. Mid and North Wales also saw a decent fall of rain overnight, properly ending the 4 weeks of mostly dry weather throughout July to date, and even SW Wales has not been spared with heavy showers on Sunday morning.

    The week ahead looks decidedly unsettled, but not cool as winds will generally be between west and south and even the seas are relatively warm after the recent heatwave by now. A warm but at times wet week then sums it up, with another, albeit most likely brief hot spell later in the week. With a complex of low pressures over or close to the British Isles Sunday sees some heavy downpours knocking about, most places getting at least a couple through the day, and more for Wales where thunder and even hail is a possibility. Still fairly warm highs between 20 and 23c, with gentle breezes. Showers dying out over the Midlands tonight, but some continue to affect parts of West Wales, where you may even see flashes of lightning should you look hard enough. Low pressure centred to our north on Monday and with high pressure well away over the south of France, nothing to prevent showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places. With winds more SW even west and quite fresh, a touch cooler on Monday highs 19c for West Wales coasts and 22c for the Midlands, although there will be sunny intervals. Again, most showers die out to leave a generally dry Monday night. Unsettled again on Tuesday with the complication of a wave low zipping across the south as we go through the day. A dry start for most places, especially the Midlands, but then a spell of wet weather likely to affect at least South Wales and the South Midlands. Impossible to predict at this stage exactly how far north this feature will track but it may be that more of us experience rather a wet day than is presently suggested in the models. Assuming cloud and rain , then Tuesday may well be the coolest day for several weeks, highs between 18 and 20c, along with a fresh SW wind, although it would only take a few sunny breaks for temperatures to get higher, as the air will be inherently warm. A mild, rather sticky night follows.

    Wednesday, and the next low pressure is moving in off the Atlantic towards Ireland, this dragging up warm, humid air over Wales and England. Unfortunately for West Wales too much cloud and even rain at times on Wednesday for this warmth to be realised, highs below 20c here with hill and sea fog also likely. However, it should brighten in the afternoon for the Midlands with a humid 24c quite possible, although even here a little rain could occur at times. This low then drags up a plume of heat from Spain during Thursday, which after a warm night above 15c, sees strong sunshine developing for many areas. Always the chance of more could and perhaps some showery rain for West Wales, but quite a hot day, maxima at least 25c for West Wales and perhaps touching 30c for parts of the Midlands. One potential spoiler here is if the low is centred more over Ireland than slightly to its west, then West Wales may get a more cloudy and possibly damp day than expected, but lets be positive and go for a very warm day with sunny spells even here! The Midlands more or less guaranteed a hot and sunny Thursday! The heat and humidity may set off a scattering of thunderstorms during Thursday evening but many places missing these. Another warm, uncomfortable night to follow, no lower than 18c or so for some coasts and cities. Friday is a 'will the heat hang on' kind of day, as cooler, fresher air to the west starts to move in, although a chance it hangs on right through to the weekend for SE England according to ECM model? My hunch is another very warm/ quite hot day with sunny spells on Friday, with again the risk that some heavy showers and thunderstorms break out in places. Highs somewhere in the 23c to 29c range on Friday, least warm for coastal West Wales, where the fresher conditions should eventually spread in.

    As often the case, differing model signals for the next weekend, some have been indicating high pressure settling down but we will have lost the heat, so this would mean a pleasant and fairly dry weekend, and more especially Sunday, with sunny spells and temperatures in the low to mid 20s C. ECM however is this morning showing a nasty, thundery low crossing the UK during next Saturday night having formed over hot Spain, this scenario would bring more thunderstorms, heavy rain and localised flooding over next weekend! Benign or stormy we shall see?
  4. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Warm to very warm but rather unsettled; some storms or rain at times, localised downpours[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Our very warm spell/ hot spell continued last week with plenty of sunshine. 31.4c (89f) at Porthmadog and 30c (86f) at Lampeter and Llanelli on Friday, in this - the hottest spell since July 2006 (when it reached a record 33.6c 92f at Llanwnnen!). For the Midlands highest readings of the week were in the order of 29c, with 30c not quite breached here. At least in rural areas the heat managed to escape overnight, each night dropped below a comfortable 13c in this location, prior to the weekend at least, whereas in the cities and for coastal Wales nights have been uncomfortably warm and sticky at times, for example often not getting below 15c in Birmingham, while on Friday night and again last night temperatures only fell to 19c at Mumbles near Swansea. The weekend however was cooler and cloudier for the Midlands and parts of Wales, maxima of only 21c for Warwickshire on Sunday, a bit disappointment or relief perhaps then after the scorching week. Perversely, the heat and sunshine has returned with a vengeance on Monday!.

    Another bone dry week passed virtually everywhere, and the countryside is parched and turning brown, and river and streams are running very low. With the end in sight for the hot, dry spell, a resume for this location shows no rain for almost 3 weeks, while for the past fortnight daytime highs have averaged 26c (close to 80f), but with nights averaging a refreshingly cool 10c here in my garden. The remarkable spell ends with a scattering of downpours, thunderstorms and spectacular lightning displays for some of us this week, although certainly no washout, rather hit and miss showers, some places getting a lot of rain in a short space of time, while others escape with a relatively dry week. Very warm/ hot and humid at first, cooling mid week, but still warm, and perhaps very warm again late in the week.

    Our resident high of the past two weeks or so is slipping away to Scandinavia, and for the coming week we are more influenced by a low pressure area that will be spinning about to the west of Ireland. At least with low pressure in this position the air will be coming up from the south or SW so not a cool direction, and a warm/ very warm but rather unsettled week ahead. Spells of hazy sunshine for Monday afternoon and quite hot and humid, maxima widely 26 to 28c, perhaps even 29c for one or two places. The lower pressure combined with the heat and humidity will serve to set off a scattering of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, these lasting well into this evening. Many places missing these, but torrential rain along with thunder and lightning where they do occur. A warm, sticky night follows tonight mostly remaining above 15c. Tuesday another very warm, humid day with fronts pushing into the heat from the SW setting off further downpours and storms in places, but again some places missing these altogether. The kind of weather where you may hear thunder or see distant flashes of lightning but not get much if any rain! Temperatures on Tuesday up to 23 to 27c, warmest for the Midlands, and perhaps a little cooler for coastal Wales. Further showers or storms in places well into Tuesday night, perhaps more especially over the Midlands, where you should see flashes of lightning at least.

    Messy synoptics on Wednesday as thundery troughs take the real heat away to the NE, with more weather fronts moving into Ireland. Plenty of cloud to start and with bits and pieces of rain, warm sunny intervals developing for the afternoon, this again likely to set off a scattering of showers, thundery in places, although some will wonder what all the fuss is about and miss out on rain/ thunder altogether! Less warm for Wednesday but still managing 21 to 25c. Night times mid week mild and rather sticky, but not as oppressive as at the start of the week, dropping to 12 to 14c. Low pressure still just west of Ireland even to end the week, a picture of slow moving fronts slowly crossing the UK, although these are not expected to bring prolonged, heavy rain to Wales and the Midlands, rather Thursday and Friday more likely to see bits and pieces of rain or showers, with the by then, only outside chance of thunder. Quite warm on Thursday highs of 21 to 23c, while for Friday things may warm up again, maxima 23 to 26c look likely at this stage, and it would be feeling sticky.

    Very difficult to pin detail on next weekend, the low pressure is still rotating west of Ireland, but dragging up some very warm pulses of air at times. No washout of a weekend seems certain; a stab would be fairly dry with scattered showers and thunderstorms for a few places; warm to very warm with sunny intervals, and maxima in the 22 to 27c range, highest for the Midlands, as West Wales experiences cooling SW breezes off the sea, so not a bad weekend again!
    [attachment=178575:PPVG89 Tue v warm TL risk.png][attachment=178576:ecmt850.048 v warm TL risk Tue.png][attachment=178577:PPVJ89 Wed warm some rain or showers.png][attachment=178578:h850t850eu hit and miss showers warm wed.png][attachment=178579:PPVL89 r warm bits and pieces Thu.png][attachment=178581:PPVO89 sticky few showers.png][attachment=178580:ecmt850.072 thu fri warmish some rain or showers.png][attachment=178582:ecmt850.120 warmer few showers Fri.png][attachment=178583:h850t850eu warm poss showers weekend.png][attachment=178584:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=178585:mgram_Cardiff.png][attachment=178586:prcpAbertawe~-~Swansea hit nd miss rain.png][/size][/font]
  5. TonyH
    [size=3][b]Headline: Continuing dry, very warm/ hot and largely sunny! Localised storms from Friday[/b][/size]

    [size=3]A fantastic week of Summer weather for all! Hottest over Wales where temperatures have been into the low 80's f (27 to 28c) at times, with each day reaching at least 24c at this location this week. Not as warm for the Midlands until this weekend but yesterday it reached a sweltering 30c at Coventry and Rugby! Very sunny too, an estimated 95 hours bright sunshine in the past week here as judged from my webcam captures, that's an average of over 13 hours per day! The only slight fly in the ointment was Wednesday for the Midlands where it was a rather cloudy and cooler day. Suffice to say a bone dry week for the vast majority of places, although a few spots caught a thundery shower in the Midlands yesterday, such as the Shrewsbury and Hereford environs. At least nights have been relatively cool, it got down to just 6.4c at dawn Friday here in Ceredigion. and most nights fell below 11c here in the countryside (11c being average for a July night). More of the same to come this week, very warm to hot with temperatures getting into the 80's fahrenheit again at times, especially from mid week onwards. July 2013 may well be going down in the annals of outstandingly warm and sunny Summer months! With only 4.7mm at Llanwnnen and 2.1mm at Coventry after two weeks of this month, and with very little rain showing in the models for the next fortnight, July 2013 could well become the driest for a good number of years (previous dry July examples: 2006 had just 30mm here, while 1999 had 18mm at Coventry). Plenty more heat and sunshine then in the coming week, with high pressure continuing to be stuck favourably over or close to the UK.[/size]

    [size=3]A foggy start in places on Sunday, then with patchy cloud for West Wales, and also some low cloud for the East Midlands as seen on the recent satellite imagery, this should be breaking to give another largely sunny afternoon, very warm generally with maxima 25 to 28c, although Cardigan Bay coasts nearer 21c with the sea breeze. A refreshingly cool night to follow down to 9 to 12c, although perhaps feeling sticky for cities. High pressure has slipped just to the SW of the UK for the start of this week, this permitting westerly winds and some rain to affect Scotland, this should though be as far as the more unsettled conditions makes it this week, as by mid week the high is slap bang over us once more! On Monday then, warm to hot with sunny periods, temperatures ranging from 21c for Cardigan Bay coasts where there is an onshore breeze again, 25c for inland and south coastal West Wales, and a hot 28c for the Midlands. Most days this week will in fact reach 80f across the Midlands, a proper 'heatwave' here. Parts of Cardigan Bay could turn misty at times given the NW flow off the sea. Again, on Monday night it will be refreshingly cool - if you stand in the garden at midnight - but with the retained heat in our homes, perhaps a problem sleeping! Tuesday a repeat performance, plentiful sunshine and warmth, if not heat. Peak temperatures in the 25 to 29c range, highest for the Midlands, cooler for Cardigan Bay coasts. [/size]

    [size=3]High pressure nudges closer in from the SW on Wednesday, largely sunny once more, and potentially very hot for the Midlands, 30c being shown by the GFS model here, while West Wales is more pleasantly warm with sea breezes, 21c on exposed coasts and 26c well inland, just the chance that some sea mist willl affect some western beaches on Wednesday. A subtle change from mid week is that we may well be losing the luxury of the relatively cool nights, so uncomfortable nights and trouble getting off to sleep by the end of the week! Thursday and the heat is more widespread once more, as the high sits over the UK, West Wales loses the sea breeze effect and joins in with the 80f heat. Sunny and hot then for Thursday, maxima widely 26 to 30c even along many coasts. A sticky night for Thursday too, probably remaining above 16c for cities and coasts, then rinse and repeat for Friday, hot and sunny reaching 27 to 30c widely, and little wind to cool us off! Friday is one of those Summer days when the heat is so strong that it may form a 'heat low' so the chance of a few thunderstorms in places for Friday afternoon or evening, the Welsh hills most at risk of these perhaps, but the majority of places missing these localised downpours.[/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Next weekend and no respite from the heat and sunshine, and for most of us it will be over two weeks without rain and an 'absolute drought' (16 successive dry days), the gardens and allotments will be parched and plants wilting! Relatively high pressure remains steadfastly over the UK, although as with Friday a 'thermal low' may form over land in the afternoons, resulting in a thunderstorm for a fortunate few of us! Plenty of sunshine and humidity next weekend, highs again widely into the low to mid 80s f (27 to 30c). Indications that the settled, very warm spell hangs on towards the last week of July before it may at long last turn cooler and more unsettled? Watch this space...[/font][/size]
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry, very warm and sunny!![/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another largely dry week has passed, a mere 2mm falling at Rugby and Coventry, and just 5mm here, and we are at last entering a prolonged warm/ hot and sunny spell during 'High Summer', the first time since 2006! A few fly in the ointments as always (it's rarely the case that the whole UK is blessed with warm and sunny conditions at the same time!), as low cloud and mist affected parts of Wales on Saturday, at least during the morning, and with an onshore breeze crossing chilly waters(14c), places such as Aberporth and Aberdaron only managed a high of 16c, while the sunny Midlands was getting readings close to 80f (26c) With high pressure remaining over or close to the UK throughout the coming week and even next weekend it looks like a dry, very warm (hot sometimes even) and sunny week! Almost unbroken sunshine in places over the coming 7 days with temperatures well into the 20's, no doubt we will start to hear complaints that "it's too hot"! The coasts are the place to be this week. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]With a large slow moving high pressure over or close by the UK all week my job has been made a lot easier in producing this guide, that is similar weather for the whole week, and few if any of the difficulties of predicting when and where rain will occurr! The only real uncertainty will be "how warm will it get each day?" High pressure today is centred over Ireland, and as we can see/feel the heat is building on Sunday morning, even for West Wales, where incidentally it was a lovely cool night down to 5c in this spot. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Recent 11am temperatures:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Our back garden, Llanwnnen: 23c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Milford Haven, Pembs: 22c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby, Warwickshire: 24c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Birmingham: 24c[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A sunny and very warm afternoon ahead for most, although again with the odd fly in the ointment. The first 80f readings for the Midlands of Summer to look forward to, maxima 27 or 28c here, while inland West Wales manages 25c. Coasts complicated by the fact that low cloud/ sea mist will affect some beaches from time to time, and where this happens highs kept below 20c, there will also be refereshing sea breezes along the Welsh coasts, although Carmarthenshire, Gower and south Pembrokeshire coasts should be warm and sunny with less chance of mist spoiling things, up to 23c locally - at Pembrey for example. A largely clear night to follow, a comfortable 10c for the countryside but a sticky 14c for cities and coastal SW Wales. An absolutely cracking sunny and very warm day on Monday, high pressure drifting across northern Britain, and with a gentle easterly flow, even coastal West Wales seeing the heat and virtually unbroken sunshine. Hotter than Sunday for West Wales we may touch 80f (27c), and 25 to 27c for the Midlands too. Clear skies on Monday night and it should be refreshingly cool for all, temperatures down to 8 to 12c. Rinse and repeat on Tuesday, high pressure meandering around western Britain, more virtually unbroken sunshine and warmth, highs generally 24 to 27c, and again refreshing sea breezes for coasts where 21c will be nearer the mark.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wednesday to Friday sees little change as high pressure remains over or close to NW UK, more sunny and warm weather, the only debate being just how warm? GFS model is suggesting a breeze off the North Sea which would cool things down for the Midlands at least, low 20's maxima if so; ECM on the other hand positions the high such that things are still likely to be pushing 80f for the remainder of the week! Suffice to say, plenty of strong warm sunshine to see out the working week, highs somewhere in the 20's C (70's to perhaps low 80's F), it is not likely however, that the 30c (true heat) barrier will be breached in the coming week apart from in the London area. It may not feel it after the long sunny days, but nights cooling off nicely, we are not likely to be suffering warm, humid nights above 16c (60f), more likely getting down to 8 to 10c in rural areas and 12 to 14c for cities and coasts. A few places may catch an isolated shower on Wednesday or Thursday but the vast majority will miss these, so barely warrants a mention.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]And even into next weekend high pressure is close enough to keep things generally dry and warm, Saturday perhaps a hot one! We may be starting to see the weather breaking down with some rain or showers by Sunday, but this is as they say "a long way off" and the reality could be the warmth and sunshine decides to hold sway even into the week that follows?[/size][/font]
    [attachment=176960:PPVE89 H Scot sunny very warm or hot.png][attachment=176962:h850t850eu sunny quite hot.png][attachment=176961:PPVJ89 H Ire v warm sunny.png][attachment=176964:ecmt850.072 v warm sunny mid week.png][attachment=176966:h850t850eu warm sunny perhaps less warm.png][attachment=176963:PPVO89 continues v warm sunny.png][attachment=176965:metslp.120 on and on Fri.png][attachment=176967:ecmt850.168 warm sunny next weekend.png][attachment=176968:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=176969:mgram_Cardiff.png][attachment=176970:prcpWarwickshire m dry week ahead.png][attachment=176971:t2mSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire warm week WW.png]
  7. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather unsettled and cool, rain at times mainly mid week; fine and warm from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some pleasant sunny spells last week, although Thursday, and in some places Friday too, turned out disappointing with quite a drop of rain, and wetter and cooler than anticipated in the previous guide. Ceredigion was the coldest part of the UK on Monday night, with lows of 2c at Swyddffynnon and Llanwnnen and a grass frost - yes in late June! June 2013 has been fairly dry but slightly cool overall, rainfall figures:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 53mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby: 33mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 56mm one of a few locally average spots![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another somewhat changeable week ahead, some, but not an awful lot of rain at times, and temperatures mostly on the cool side for July. Average maxima for July are as follows and as warm as they will get during the course of a year:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Lampeter: 20c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberystwyth: 20c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 22c[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although a cloudy start in places on Sunday, sunshine is breaking through, and we should all be seeing warm sunny spells through this afternoon, although coastal West Wales cloudier and cooler, even some drizzle in places here. Highs on Sunday afternoon ranging from 24c for the East Midlands to 17c for Pembrokeshire coasts. A weakening front brings cloud to all of us this evening, again with drizzle in places, then overnight clear intervals develop and a cooler fresher night, lows of 9 to 11c. A weak ridge of high pressure follows for Monday, a bright, cool day with a westerly breeze, sunny intervals and the odd light shower, although SW Wales could end up with a nice, sunny evening. Highs on Monday just 15c for coastal West Wales and 18c for the Midlands. Dry and quite cool on Monday night with lows around 9c. Turning unsettled for the mid week period as Atlantic lows march across towards Scotland. Fronts bringing rain to Wales from early Tuesday morning, this spreading into Midlands by midday, although this may turn lighter and patchy through the afternoon, before a wet evening for West Wales. Cool with all the cloud on Tuesday, highs of just 14c or so for West Wales, but 18c for the Midlands, where a few brighter chinks may occur. Further rain at times through Tuesday night, much of it quite light though. Quite a strong SW wind for Tuesday evening and night, especially over western coasts.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]One low is moving away on Wednesday with another hard on its heels moving to the NW of Ireland. A bit messy, various fronts and bits and pieces of rain or drizzle, equally some sunshine in places and feeling muggy over the Midlands, highs again showing the west: east disparity, ranging from 16c for coastal Wales to 20c over parts of the Midlands. A more appreciable spell of rain and strong winds likely overnight Wednesday into Thursday along the cold front of the system, a possibility the rain could linger a while, but Thursday more likely to eventually be a brighter day of sunny intervals and a few showers. Quite cool again on Thursday highs 16 to 19c west to middle. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Improvements from Friday, as high pressure takes charge over the UK, it will be dry and bright with sunny spells, warm over the Midlands, maxima up to 23c, but cooler with onshore breezes keeping it closer to 19c for coasts of West Wales. High pressure looks like remaining in control over next weekend also, so the promise of a fine, reasonably sunny and warm one, potentially very warm by Sunday when 26c may be reached over the Midlands, but refreshing sea breezes for the Welsh coasts, 20c nearer the mark here. The likelihood that it could warm up even further early in the week that follows, into the 80's even![/size][/font]
    [attachment=176251:PPVG89 wk R m dry cool Mon.png][attachment=176252:ecmt850.072 rain times Tue.png][attachment=176253:PPVO89 rain to showers Thu windy.png][attachment=176254:ecmt850.120 H moves into Eng dry r warm Fri.png][attachment=176255:h850t850eu mostly settled warm weekend.png][attachment=176256:h850t850eu mostly settled warm weekend.png][attachment=176257:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff.png]
  8. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Fairly dry and bright, cool at first then quite warm from mid week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some dry, bright and warm weather early last week, 25c at Rugby on Wednesday, their warmest day of the year to date. Then some rain and showers about, with thundery showers over Birmingham and Wolverhampton on Thursday evening. However, overall quite small amounts of rain during the past week, just 5mm having fallen at Llanwnnen and 10mm at Coventry. Much cooler and windy this weekend but things set to improve once more, and another reasonably dry week to come - June is turning out fairly dry if on the cool side.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday afternoon continues chilly with plenty of cloud and occasional, mostly light showers, with some areas again escaping these, lucky to better 60f (16c) anywhere, very cool. The blustery NW wind moderates overnight as the low currently over Scotland moves into the North Sea, becoming dry with clear spells, minima 7 to 9c. Monday looks a mainly dry day with a ridge moving into the west, a few showers are possible more especially over the Midlands but most places missng them. Sunny intervals on Monday, but a cool NW breeze and highs only 15 to 17c. Clear periods and a chilly Monday night, lows of 5c in places inland. High pressure builds more decisively from the SW during Tuesday although perhaps not enough to prevent a scattering of showers to develop, as there will be cool upper atmosphere pool encouraging them, again though many places will miss these showers altogether. Quite cool in spite of sunny spells maxima 17 to 19c, and with another chilly clear night to follow, a local grass frost not out of the question, as air temperatures get down to 4c in favoured cold hollows. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure close to Ireland on Wednesday and the upper atmosphere is starting to warm up, so dry and largely sunny on Wednesday, temperatures reaching the late June average of 19 to 21c, a very pleasant day as winds will be light, although cooler for Cardigan Bay coasts with an onshore breeze. Thursday too is influenced by high pressure close to our SW, so generally dry again with sunny spells, however weak fronts coming around the top of the high off the Atlantic could bring more in the way of cloud and perhaps a little rain for a time, more especially for North Wales and the Midlands. Rather warm where there is decent sunshine up to about 21c, but cool where damp, just 16c for Snowdonia perhaps. Much milder on Thursday night no lower than 12c. High pressure leaks away SW somewhat during Friday, the high perhaps not quite close enough to keep it completely dry with more cloud. We could well be within a sector of warm, humid but inherently moist air on Friday, so always more likely to stay cloudy along western coasts, even with a little drizzle in places, however inland, and more especially for the Midlands, warm and sultry sunny spells with temperatures as high as 23c, and this could set off a few sharp afternoon showers here. A mild and somewhat sticky night follows no lower than 13c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend, and we still have the same area of high pressure to the SW of Ireland, with a mild, moist and rather humid Atlantic west to NW airstream flowing about it across the UK. Western coasts always more prone to low cloud, sea mist and a little drizzle at times disappointingly, whereas inland, and especially the Midlands seeing some warm sunny breaks, although even here it may well cloud over at times. Mild nights next weekend, and by day maxima only 17c for stretches of coast that remain misty and damp, 21c for inland West Wales where it should brighten at times, then up to 25c locally for the Midlands where some decent sunny spells should break through. So not a bad weekend, and no washout for events taking place such as Glastonbury![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=175613:PPVG89 cool m dry mon R.png][attachment=175614:PPVJ89 R but few showers Tue.png][attachment=175615:ecmt850.072 Tue m dry r cool.png][attachment=175618:ukmintemp very local GF Wed am.png][/size][/font][attachment=175636:h850t850eu pleasant dry sunny ave Wed.png][font=arial][size=3][attachment=175617:PPVL89 nice Wed warmer.png][attachment=175619:ecmt850.120 m dry THu.png][attachment=175620:PPVO89 Thu m dry but wk front.png][attachment=175621:metslp.120 H slips SW m dry r warm.png][attachment=175622:ecmt850.144 WS FRi cloudier warm.png][attachment=175628:ecmt850.168 wend m dry warm eso inland.png][attachment=175631:h850t850eu weekend H close by humid westerly.png][attachment=175632:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=175633:mgram_Cardiff.png][/size][/font]
  9. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Warm with some thundery showers to mid week, then much cooler, unsettled next weekend[/b]

    [font=arial][size=3]The weather over the past week has been quite a shock to the system for us in West Wales,with the abrupt change to cool, rather cloudy and at times wet weather, following on from the previous week of warmth and almost unbroken sunshine! Frequent rain and showers since Wednesday has deposited 25mm in the rain gauge here, although far from a washout of a week. Coventry was the wettest place in the UK on Friday as a train of heavy showers and thunderstorms tracked in a narrow line through the Midlands giving over 20mm in the afternoon alone, whilst nearby Rugby and Warwick escaped with just a millimetre or so! A disappointingly cool as well as wet week, for a time on both Thursday and Saturday afternoon's the temperature was below 10c here- at least the nights have been milder with all the cloud, missing those ISS passovers though. Another mixed week ahead with no definite weather patterns emerging, some dry fine days, but rain or showers on others, so again far from a washout of a week at least, even if we will not be seeing any settled dry and wam spell in the making just yet. Some fine margins with our weather this week, as slight shifts of slow-moving weather fronts could make all the difference, say between a wet and dry day, but we will try our best..[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]On Sunday low pressure will fail to make inroads into the UK remaining to our SW, it's slow-moving fronts will however make it a mainly cloudy afternoon for West Wales and the South Midlands, although the rain should be restricted to South Wales and the far SW Midlands. Sunny intervals and just an isolated shower for the bulk of the Midlands this afternoon. Very cool in the rain for SW Wales highs of just 14c, but 18c for the brighter North Midlands, so a pleasant afternoon here. During this evening rain may extend into NW Wales too, and overnight further rain at times for West Wales, some heavier bursts in places. On Monday there is a heat low over France but relatively high pressure over northern UK, we should just about escape the rain and showers on Monday which should be a fine and dry day for the majority, just the chance of some rain skirting the South Wales coast during the afternoon. Sunshine breaks through the cloud for most, but not a plain sunny day, more a case of sunny intervals, feeling rather humid with a gentle east breeze and highs around 21c 70f, so not a bad day on Monday. However, even at this stage in the forecasting, Monday could possibly see greater advancement north of the southern England front, so something to bear in mind is that it may go pear-shaped with some rain affecting more of us, but odds are on a decent day. Clearing skies to follow so hopefully an opportunity to view the ISS once more (there is a very bright pass around 22:30). Good news for Tuesday is that the warm, humid Continental air will be advecting NW over England and Wales. A front will be introducing this warm, humid air, and so plenty of cloud and even some spots of rain during the morning, the cloud should break to sunny intervals through Tuesday afternoon, feeling quite sultry, and in turn this sunshine will be setting off a scattering of showers by evening, even with some thunder for one or two spots. Maxima a warm 21 to 24c, A mild, rather sticky night to follow as any showers die out, no lower than 15c for SW Wales and the South Midlands. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Forecasting is especially problematic for Wednesday and Thursday with a ridge of high pressure trying to push into the UK, but may be thwarted by the still present heat low over the near Continent. The model concensus now though seems that for Wednesday the shallow low makes it over to England thus maintaining the supply of warm and humid air, especially over the Midlands where 27c (80f) is not out of the question, cooler at 20c or so for Cardigan Bay where there will be a pleasant onshore breeze. Sunny spells on Wednesday, but this heat would no doubt be setting off torrential, thundery showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon and evening. Incidentally the Low Countries could well be hitting the 90's f on Wednesday! Earlier model output would have brought us a cooling ridge of high pressure by Wednesday but this scenario can now largely be discounted in favour of the humid, potentially thundery one outlined above. For Wednesday night, and the cooler air starts to push east, this though likely to develop a trough over Wales where it could potentially be a very wet night. Much cooler then on Thursday, as our warm, thundery low is headed for Scandinavia, with a weak Atlantic ridge coming into the west. A cool northerly flow on Thursday with showers, more especially over the Midlands where they will be heavy at times. A big drop in temperatures from Wednesday, highs between 15 and 19c only.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]More of a defined westerly Atlantic pattern to end the week, Friday promises a transient ridge of high pressure, a largely dry and bright day but none too warm, highs just 16 to 19c. This ridge is being followed hard on its heels by low pressure which moves into northern Britain on Saturday, and its fronts may spoil the end of Friday for West Wales. Low pressure over or close by throughout next weekend, and a cool air mass, showers or longer spells of rain, with sunny intervals between times, highs probably in the 15 to 19c range, so very disappointing for late June, and by which time the days will have started to get shorter! [/size][/font]
  10. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: MIxed; some rain at times, but equally dry and warm at times too (no washout!)[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A fantastic dry, warm and sunny week here in West Wales. Almost unbroken sunshine, I estimate 90 hours since this time last week. The cool air mass early in the week illustrated by 3 successive grass frosts on my lawn from Sunday to Tuesday, athough air temperatures stayed above plus 3c. The MIdlands has not fared as well being plagued by cool NE winds and low cloud from time to time, that stuck virtually the whole of Wednesday keeping it cool at below 15c max, this returning again over this weekend, reminding Midlanders how cool the North Sea still is in early Summer. Each day rose above 20c for inland Wales, with some very warm days late in the week, warmest being 25c from such diverse places as Porthmadog, Lampeter and Llanelli on Friday. At Coventry, the cool North Sea breeze prevented temperatures from getting above 20c except on Friday (20.1c). This time last year 80mm rain had fallen so far in June at Llanwnnen and 67mm at Coventry- exceptionally high figures, and the devastating floods had just occurred in the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas, but in total contrast so far this month ZERO rain. There will be some rain in the coming week, and for West Wales a cloudier week, but we lose the NE flow, and so the Midlands actually becomes warmer with above average temperatures for a change here! Thankfully no chance of the washout conditions of June 2012 are being predicted.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Yet another sunny and warm day for West Wales on Sunday, whereas the ongoing saga for the Midlands of 'will it, won't it clear?' regarding the North Sea cloud. As with Saturday, there should be sunny spells during the afternoon for the Midlands, especially the West Midlands, however none too warm at only 17c or so this afternoon, compared with 20 to 23c highs over West Wales. A clear and cool night follows, subtle changes in wind direction should halt the return of the North Sea cloud sheet for the Midlands, so close to a grass frost here too, lows of just 3 to 6c. HIgh pressure is declining over the UK during Monday as Atlantic fronts queue up to our west. Monday though a largely dry and warm day with sunny spells, the Midlands joining in as well, highs close to 21c on Monday. Just the chance of an afternoon shower over the Welsh hills. Low pressure is centred to the west of Ireland on Tuesday, with the remnants of our high over the North Sea. Fronts do cross the UK on Tuesday but these are expected to be weak and only produce a little rain in places, as is typical, West Wales more likely to be cloudy and damp, with sunny intervals for the Midlands on Tuesday. A rather warm and humid SW flow with maxima of 19c for West Wales and 22c for the Midlands (quite an improvement in fortunes here). We are in the warm sector of the low on Tuesday night so a mild, sticky kind of Summer night, lows just 12 or 13c. It could be quite a wet night for Wales as more active fronts make their presence felt, but probably only a little light rain for the Midlands. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Low pressure sytems close by to the west and north through Wednesday, so an unsettled and rather cloudy day with further rain at times, some heavy for West Wales perhaps, although again the Midlands most likely only seeing small amounts. A cooler day with all the cloud about, highs between 16 and 19c, below the mid June average. The rain should have cleared by Thursday morning, with a ridge over us, so a fine sunny day, if not especially warm as we are in a relatively cool westerly airstream, maxima ranging from 17c for coastal West Wales to 20c for the Midlands. There is a chance that the rain may linger longer into Thursday towards th east, meaning the Midlands could get a wet Thursday morning. Difficulties in forecasting Friday, although ostensibly under the influence of the ridge still, a plume of warm air is crossing the near Continent, and some heavy rain may well develop over England and Wales during Friday, but impossible to say where exactly this will effect and where will remain dry. So for Friday, something to bear in mind is that it may be turning wet even if it looks promising to start with, and if cloudy and wet, then a very cool day no higher than 13c, contrasting starkly with warmth for areas that stay dry.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend, and disapponting for us in Wales, as compared to this stunningly warm and sunny weekend we are currently experiencing, we have low pressure, cloud and rain threatening instead! Not raining all the time, more a case of sunny intervals and showers type weather through the weekend, possibly with a longer spell of rain in the mix also. Saturday probably the drier day, indeed some areas escaping with a warm sunny day, more especially the Midlands, closest to high pressure over the near Continent. Sunday and more widespread showers likely.[/size][/font]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mainly dry, quite sunny and rather warm, some showers; perhaps unsettled next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It did turn drier through the latter half of the week past, although not much warmth as yet apart from the Midlands and parts of South Wales reaching the low 20's c on Friday. Some more unseasonably cool days experienced of late, Monday was very cool and wet the 'high' below 10c here, and it was a wet week over the Midlands, with a total of 32mm during the week at Coventry. Nationally, Spring 2013 was the coldest since 1962, but as far as the Central England Temperature series goes it has, amazingly, been the coldest since 1891! May, and although not particularly wet with 125mm, was the wettest since May 2006 here at Llanwnnen. At long last a welcome spell of generally warmer and drier weather in the coming week. No real heat in the offing, but we will be in the 'rather warm' category, that is slightly above the average which is 17 to 19c in early June. Unfortunately, this does not mean that the whole of Summer 2013 will be pleasant, we will have to wait and see on that, but mid June is looking poor...[/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Plenty more sunshine on Sunday afternoon with temperatures close to the early June average reaching 17 to 19c widely. North and west facing coasts struggling to get above just 13c in spite of the sunshine, this because the sea temperatures are still unseasonably cool at 11c thanks to the cold Spring, and any sea breeze brings that chilly air onshore. A largely clear and chilly night follows, cold enough for a grass frost in many areas, lows 2 to 4c, so yes, we can still get frosts in a cool air mass this close to the Summer Solstice! High pressure slap bang over the UK through Monday, so another dry and sunny day, a touch warmer too, maxima 18 to 21c, although again cooling sea breezes. In spite of the high pressure, GFS model insists on showing showers developing during the afternoon, probably due to some upper atmospheric instabilty, however I feel that this risk is minimal and any showers only isolated and light, while virtually everywhere stays dry and sunny. By Tuesday our high has transferred to northern Scandinavia but still extends a ridge south over the UK. A chilly dawn on Tuesday after a largely clear night, this heralding another mainly dry day, with sunny periods and perhaps an isolated shower for the Welsh hills or Peak District. With the high to the north the drift of air on Tuesday is more from the NE so West Wales could see some of the highest temperatures, 21c in places here, but more general figures of 18 to 20c expected.

    Wednesday, and the charts have that complicated, messy look to them with no discernable high or low close to our shores, a kind of synoptic 'No Man's Land'! Another cool start but the sun soon gets to work, although with the decreased pressure, and likely that a weak trough is in the mix too, providing the spark for some showers to develop through the afternoon into early evening, these most likely over Wales and where a few places could catch a heavy, even thundery downpour. Highs on Wednesday a little above average at 18 to 21c, with gentle breezes. Thursday and Friday still sees relatively high pressure over most of the UK, so more mostly dry and bright weather, with rather warm temperatures, maxima between 18 and 22c. Not completely dry, as is the theme of the week really, some places will catch a shower again towards the end of the week, but these are not expected to be at all widespread, and the vast majority of us will remain virtually dry.

    The weekend may see the dry spell hanging on, but we are under threat from lows both over the near Continent, and also from the Atlantic, so we will be most fortunate if we do not see rain arrive by Sunday! The weather looks set to turn cool and wet during the week that follows, so best make the most of this coming week![/size][/font]
  12. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather cool; unsettled with rain or showers, drier to end the week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As the cold Spring draws to a close this week we look forward to Summer... In fact it will end up the coldest Spring since at least 1962 in the Central England Temperature series that goes back to 1659![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Last week saw notably cool conditions for late May with snow returning to northern hills, while the rest of us saw hail showers and strong cold winds on Thursday and Friday. Coventry and Warwickshire managed only 9c maximum on Friday- the coldest late May day since 1948, while on both Friday and Saturday nights lows of -2c for parts of Ceredigion, the lowest temperatures recorded this far into the year, and with an air frost even on the Carmarthenshire coast! The cold records keep tumbling this Spring, although at least maximum temperatures have recovered to around average levels this weekend thanks to a ridge of high pressure and plenty of strong sunshine. Last week was dry with the showers not adding up to much in the rain gauges. Unfortunately the generally cool theme sees out May with rain or showers at times too this coming week.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lovely sunny and warm feeling afternoon on Sunday, parts of the Midlands close to 20c, while cooler for West Wales coasts at 14c. Another largely clear and cold night, West Wales should just avoid a air frost as cloud and wind associated with a front over Ireland spreads over by dawn, but a widespread grass frost lows generally 2 to 4c. Turning unsettled from the west during Bank Holiday Monday although the rain should hold off until evening for the Midlands as the front stalls over West Wales in the afternoon which will be cool, wet and quite windy here. Highs just 12c over wet West Wales but 17c for the East Midlands where it stays brighter longer. The rain clears Wales overnight Monday whilst edging into the Midlands, most of it light though here. Lows of 5 to 7c. The occluded front bringing the rain develops it's own low on Tuesday somewhere over southern England so that means a very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and perhaps thundery at times. There should be a few sunny intervals but with all the cloud and showery rain, a cool day in prospect, maxima just 13 to 15c. The MIdlands in particular could end up with a lot of rain through to Tuesday night.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]This low is still over England or at least very close by on Wednesday which has a cool NE or north wind developing along with some more showery rain for many places, highs betwen 13 and 15c, although if it brightens a touch warmer for the East Midlands 17c possible here. Potentially rather wet in places then again on Wednesday. The models have been teasing with hints of a ridge of high pressure drying things out later in the week, however this will be a struggle with weather fronts travelling about the high crossing at least northern UK. A ridge of sorts on Thursday, so a drier, brighter day in store, although a few showers will affect some areas, especially the Midlands in the afternoon, but not everywhere, and we should all see decent sunny spells. Highs on Thursday 14 to 16c for West Wales where the cool NW breeze is most evident, to 18 or 19c for the Midlands. Some of us then getting a mostly dry, better day on Thursday. Clearing skies and any showers dying out during Thursday night, a touch of ground frost in places as air temperatures fall to 3 to 6c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As usual things more difficult to ascertain by the end of the week, and we are taking a much more probabilistic view. A nose of warm sector air may be over us on Friday and potentially a warm day with a few showers and light westerly winds, cloudier for West Wales and sunnier for the Midlands in such a set up, indeed sea fog could plague western beaches on Friday. Disappointingly cool for West Wales with the cloud cover just 14c or so, while the Midlands could hit 20c - it must be stressed though that Friday's scenario may not play out in exactly this way, and it could be that the ridge exerts more strongly giving more of us a warm and sunny day, or conversely that Atlantic fronts are more prolific bringing cloud, some rain and lower temperatures than are anticipated for Friday. The favoured option for next weekend is that high pressure will be fairly close to our west with a rather cool NE breeze over the UK. Hopefully then a mostly dry if not especially warm weekend, and if anywhere catches a shower most likely the Midlands. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=172374:PPVG89 v cool wet WW Mon.png][attachment=172375:PPVJ89 potentially wet Tue.png][attachment=172376:ecmt850.072 Sec L Tue showers lsr.png][attachment=172377:PPVO89 R to W Thu few showers.png][attachment=172378:ecmt850.120 R attempt Thu few showers.png][attachment=172379:h850t850eu R attempt drier warmer Thu.png][attachment=172380:h850t850eu WS few showers Fri.png][attachment=172381:ecmt850.120 warmest day Fri.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][attachment=172381:ecmt850.120 warmest day Fri.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][attachment=172383:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=172385:viewimage.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][/size][/font]
  13. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Average start then appreciable cool down; fairly dry but a few showers, rain threatening the Midlands Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Cool last week, with frost, sleet and even snow for high ground! Many of us saw several ground frosts, and even an air frost for a few places. Lowest readings +1c for Coventry on Wednesday night and -1c here at Llanwnnen on Friday morning. Tuesday was very wet for SW Wales, 2 inches of rain fell at Llanwnnen while Pembrey Sands in Carmarthenshire had 3 inches, there were blobs of icy sleet on the windscreen as we drove about on Tuesday evening. Amazingly for mid May the Brecon Beacons and high ground over 400m had snow, with 2 inches of snow lying near Newcastle on Clun, close to Offa's Dyke in Shropshire. Not all doom and gloom as there were decent sunny spells between the scattered showers from Wednesday onwards and in these it felt reasonably warm even if temperatures remained below average. No day managed above 15c (59f) for SW Wales last week, although after this protracted cool weather even 13c in sunny spells felt pleasant enough on Saturday afternoon! SW Wales on Friday saw some very heavy downpours, with hail and thunderstorms, officially Milford Haven was the wettest place in the UK with 14mm from afternoon downpours, although the rainfall radar suggested that over 50mm fell between Haverfordwest and Narberth, and there was flooding reported near Whitland in Carmarthenshire. So far this month, 6 days have seen hail fall here at Llanwnnen, hail showers are more typical of early rather than late Spring! Apart from the soaking on Tuesday, parts of the Midland's missed the worst of the showers last week, less than 1mm falling at Coventry from Wednesday onwards. Russia and Eastern Europe has been enjoying very hot weather for the past week, it has topped 30c daily over parts of Russia...we can only dream..but at least the coming week is predominantly dry, although again temperatures will struggle to top the average and with another pronounced cool down mid week, giving further ground frosts and showers.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]On Saturday Wales and the Midlands were fortunate as all the wet weather kept to our north, and so we are again on Sunday with the rain to our south over the English Channel. We are getting the dregs of the heat that affected Eastern Europe that made it to the UK via looping up to Scandinavia (it's a long story)- the only true warmth though is at 5000 feet, at the surface the air is more moderated down to closer to the average. Sunny periods and feeling pleasant on Sunday, temperatures pushing 20c for parts of the Midlands, although generally more like 16 to 18c around the mid May mean. so not feeling too bad. A mild rather humid northerly flow for Monday, rather extensive cloud but sunny intervals breaking through at times, more especially out west. Weak fronts in the flow causing a little rain or a shower in places, these more likely over the Midlands. Maxima on Monday 16 to 19c, but cooler on some coasts, A noticeably milder Monday night lows of 8 to 10c, Tuesday is another day of variable and in places extensive cloud cover with sunny intervals, but equally the odd spit of rain or light shower. The relatively warm air hangs on with highs of 15 to 18c generally, although cooler for coasts having onshore breezes, North Wales and southern Cardigan Bay for example. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Early on Wednesday a weak cold front clears south to leave a bright but fresher day, the start of a cool northerly plunge of air between high pressure over the Atlantic and low pressure over Scandinavia. Wednesday then some good sunny spells and only a few showers, again these most likely for the Midlands, with a heavy shower possible for the East Midlands later in the day. Maxima just 12 to 15c, poor for late May. Even cooler air pushes down from the north on Thursday, with -5c 'upper' temperatures at 5000 feet, this notably cold for late May, and this means snow showers for the Scottish Highlands again! Clearing skies lead to a widespread ground frost on Wednesday night, and it will be a sunny start to Thursday. However, cumulus clouds will soon develop in the unstable air mass with convective showers scattered about for the afternoon. Some heavy showers in places with hail and thunder a possibility, although West Wales coasts more likely to stay fine and dry. Maxima very cool on Thursday at 10 to 13c in spite of the sunny intervals! Clearing skies on Thursday night means another widespread ground frost, even the risk of localised air frost, my garden perhaps a 'favoured' spot for this, lows generally 0 to 3c (this less than a month from the longest day!)[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]On Friday we are still in the very cool Arctic northerly, with the added complication that a deep low may track down the North Sea threatening wet weather for Eastern England, while at the same time high pressure is attempting to push into Ireland. A stab then at Friday, would be sunny spells and some showers, parts of West Wales escaping these, while the Midlands catches a few heavy downpours. The chance that the low encroaches close enough later Friday into Saturday to bring more general wet weather into the Midlands but this by no means definite. Cool or very cool Friday highs just 10 to 13c again, certainly feeling chilly in the shade! Next weekend a similar pattern of pressure high to our west and low to the east, however subtle differences. A 'warm' low will have dumb-belled about the previous 'cold' low and will be over the near Continent next weekend, introducing milder upper air. GFS brings shallow low pressure over southern Britain while ECM more inclined to keep this at bay. The suggestion is of a somewhat unsettled weekend, showers in places but other areas escaping and remaining fairly dry, temperatures still no great shakes as the milder uppers are not likely to be realised at the surface with the predominating NE flow. Overall for the next seven days West Wales largely dry, the Midlands more at risk of any rain or showers, reasonable temperatures to start with, but becoming very cool from mid week.[/size][/font]
  14. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and unsettled, showers or longer spells of rain; drier brighter intervals between, some ground frosts.[/b]

    From Summer to Autumn it felt like last week, 23c here on Tuesday but then by Thursday it was max 11.8c. Strong winds with gales in places as well as rain on Thursday, it felt like a Winter's day in Carmarthenshire! Hail and thunder in places in the showers on Saturday. The coming week will be disappointing again for those hoping for a warm and dry spell, as the UK is sat under a cool lobe of upper atmospheric air which is most conducive to the formation of heavy showers and longer spells of rain. Some areas will see quite large totals of rain this week, a couple of inches falling in some areas.

    Sunday is a cloudy, damp day, all of us eventually getting light rain and drizzle on and off, cool too no higher than 12 or 13c. With a deep low spinning towards northern Scotland, cool west to NW winds affect us on Monday, a day of sunny intervals and showers, some of these heavy with hail and thunder in places. Incidentally, the hills of Scotland seeing snow showers on Monday, so Winter goes on up there! Highs only between 10 and 13c, poor for the middle of May when we should be seeing 15 or 16c. Doubtful that anywhere will miss the showers completely on Monday as they turn more widespread through the afternoon. A secondary wave low looks set to cross southern Britain on Tuesday bringing more general wet weather, some places having 6 hours or so of heavy rain at some stage during the day, more especially over Mid and South Wales and the Midlands this. Outside of the main rain zone there will be showers scattered about too, but with a little sunshine between. A very cool and rather windy day, highs below 10c if it remains wet, and only 12c where it brightens in the afternoon. A chilly night follows the rain or showers with a ground frost for many, lows between 1 and 4c inland, but milder and frost free for coasts.

    By Wednesday a complex of low pressure covers the whole of the UK, at least winds will be lighter, however the strong morning sunshine will only serve to provide energy for large Cumulonimbus clouds to develop by midday. Some very heavy and slow moving downpours scattered about on Wednesday afternoon then, hail and thunderstorms for some of us, although as always in showery set ups some places may escape completely with a dry even bright day, although hard to judge where these 'lucky' spots will be. At least feeling warmer (or at least less cool) in any sunny spells and the more gentle winds, maxima generally 12 to 14c. Most of the showers die out to clearing skies on Wednesday night, and the threat once more of a widespread ground frost, although I do not think that yesterday's GFS run is correct with it's prediction of -3c for the Welsh Marches, which would be a very damaging late season frost if it came true. Our low pressure is still close to the south through Thursday although somewhat filled up, so a better day in prospect, only light winds, fewer showers and decent sunny spells. Where showers do occur they will be heavy with thunder possible again. Warmer on Thursday highs ranging from 14 to 17c, close to average. Clearing skies with local ground frost for Thursday night, although perhaps more cloudy for the Midlands.

    On Friday a new low forms over the Continent pumping up heat to Eastern Europe, but the UK remains on the cool side of this system. Some heavy and thundery rain associated with this low possibly affecting the Midlands for a time on Friday, but more probable is a continuation of the showery theme to our weather. Pembrokeshire could be favoured to miss the worst of the showers on Friday. Maxima on Friday then a near normal 14 to 17c. Hints of a ridge for next Saturday on last night's GFS run appear dashed, with a rather cool and low pressure dominated picture continuing throughout next weekend. The only uncertainty is which low pressure and from where! Needless to say further rain or showers at times next weekend, the lucky spots missing the worst of it and at least in any sunny spells it will feel warm even though maximum mercury readings in the teens belie this!
  15. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, some rain or showers, cool down mid-week, a drier and perhaps warmer weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lovely dry and fairly sunny spell lasted until Thursday gone. We were in a cool air mass so although it felt pleasant in the strong sunshine, clear skies at night gave a run of late Spring frosts. Lowest readings include -2.9c here on Tuesday night, while Bablake, Coventry had it's lowest May reading since 1984 getting down to -0.5c, with Church Lawford just up the road managing -2c, these unusually low levels with Summer not far off! For historical comparison, here in West Wales, May 1996 saw a punishing run of often sharp frosts at Llanpumsaint, Carmarthenshire, the hardest being -4.5c on the 5th. On the 16th of the same month -4.5c was recorded in Northamptonshire (courtesy of the Climatological Observers Link). April 2013 was a cool but fairly dry month nationally, 65mm rain the total here at Llanwnnen was below average, however some areas were very dry, and Rugby recorded just 13mm for the whole month. Nothing this though compared to April 1938 when barely a drop of rain, just half a millimetre fell at Lampeter all month! Only very small amounts of rain again then in the past week but this week something more substantial in the way of rain but plenty of dry weather between times. Variable temperatures this week: Bank Holiday Monday is warm, then a cool down mid week but it could warm up again somewhat over next weekend[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Dry on Sunday afternoon bar the odd spit of drizzle for hills of West Wales, sunny spells more especially for the Midlands and where it will be quite warm. Highs on Sunday a cool 13c for coastal West Wales and 19c for brighter parts of the Midlands. Sunday night is dry with no frost. Bank Holiday Monday is actually a nice one! A slack southerly air-stream gives the highest temperatures of 2013 so far. It should also be fairly sunny, although patchy cloud affects West Wales, even some sea mist rolling onto some unfortunate beaches. A dry day for all with light winds, maxima ranging from 13c where sea mist plagues coasts, 19c inland West Wales, and a possible 21c (70f in old money) for the sunnier Midlands. Unfortunately Monday is not heralding the start of a fine, warm spell! [/size][/font]
    [attachment=170080:PPVG89 dry warm BHM.png][attachment=170081:ecmt850.048 dry warm BHM.png]

    [font=arial][size=3]Dry with clear spells Monday night, but changes begin as low pressure approaches Ireland. Cloudy with rain at times on Tuesday for West Wales, mainly light this rain; a bright start for the Midlands clouding over afternoon and threatening some rain later in the day. A bit of a cool down on Tuesday highs of 13 to 16c for West Wales, but still rather warm for the Midlands at around 18c or 19c, moderate SW winds. More active fronts arrive from the SW during Tuesday night and Wednesday, so that all parts get a welcome (?) soaking (good for the allotments and gardens). An area of heavy and perhaps thundery rain crosses south Wales and the Midlands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Wednesday then very disturbed with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and thundery at times, but with some sunny intervals too. ECM and UK Met Office models indicate a spell of very windy weather later on Wednesday which may bring westerly gales to exposed places also! Disappointing temperatures for Wednesday with highs between 12 and 14c generally. By Thursday the low will be close to Scotland as it starts to move away east. However, another unsettled and showery day in prospect, a cool and fresh NW wind too, but sunny spells between the showers. Hail a distinct possibility with the cool unstable air on Thursday, although hints of a ridge approaching the SW means showers should start to die out for SW Wales afternoon, perhaps even leading to a sunny evening here. Poor maxima of 10 to 13c on Thursday. Showers die out elsewhere too on Thursday night with clear periods, and there could be a ground frost with winds becoming light, lows between 2 and 5c. Friday and high pressure is attempting to ridge across southern UK so a drier theme to our weather for the end of the week. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=170082:PPVJ89 some rain cooling Tue.png][attachment=170083:PPVL89 cool windy rain and showers Wed.png][attachment=170084:ecmt850.096 very disturbed and windy cooler Wed.png][attachment=170087:h850t850eu Wed rather wet.png] [attachment=170085:h850t850eu cool showery Thu.png][attachment=170086:ecmt850.120 H close to SW FRi m dry.png]

    [font=arial][size=3]Subtle differences in the model output for next weekend, a band of high pressure will be at least close to our SW and south, but with low pressure influence also as lows track to the north of Scotland. Between high and low pressure a rather cool west to NW flow off the Atlantic. The upshot of this is that a reasonably dry but not especially warm weekend seems likely, although weak fronts may bring bands of cloud and light rain from time to time. In this scenario it would be cool and breezy. Another scenario is that the high exerts more strongly and extends across southern UK, so with a more definitely dry picture with sunny spells and higher temperatures. In the former cooler case maxima just 12 to 16c, in the latter a warmer 16 to 19c, in either case the Midlands will get the warmer conditions.[/size][/font]
    [attachment=170088:ecmt850.168 r cool weekend little rain times.png][attachment=170089:fine dry weekend.png][attachment=170090:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  16. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mainly dry with sunny spells but rather cool with further frosts; unsettled to end the week[/b]

    Another week has passed with only small amounts of rain, 12mm falling at Llanwnnen and just 5mm at Coventry in the past 7 days. Spring 2013 is turning out quite dry thus far. The Midlands turned warm with sunshine mid week, and we even managed the one mild day here in West Wales, as Tuesday reached 16.4c in my back garden. Big temperature contrasts on Thursday as a cold front slowly edged SE, Rugby neared 19c, while West Wales was cool at 10 to 12c. There were a fair few hail showers about on both Friday and Saturday in a late Arctic northerly airflow, even with some snow over Snowdonia and the Peaks. A rather sharp frost for the very end of April last night, down to -2.6c at this location - it could have been a notably cold night were it not for cloud arriving after 2am. For the week ahead reasonably dry weather again predominates, however our air mass is still going to be pretty cool, and so although it will be feeling pleasant during sunny spells, frost is still likely overnight given clear skies and little wind.

    Sunday's patchy light rain and drizzle clears tonight to clear spells and a ground frost for many places, as low as 0c locally. Low pressure is over Scandinavia on Monday with a cool NW wind bringing sunny spells and showers, with hail in places, the Midlands seeing most of these on Monday afternoon, while parts of the West Wales coast in particular escape with a generally dry day. Cool highs on Monday of 10c for NW Wales and 12c for the Midlands. High pressure ridges in from the west on Monday night, so clearing skies leading to a widespread grass frost once more, even a slight air frost for a few spots, the coasts escaping though. This weakish ridge is over Wales and England through Tuesday, so after the cold and frosty dawn, decent sunny spells and just an isolated afternoon shower affecting a few of us. In spite of pleasant sunshine and light winds, highs still rather cool at 11c for coastal West Wales and 14c for the Midlands. Clearing skies and another frost expected on Tuesday night with little wind, unseasonably cold for the start of May down as low as -3c, although I do not expect the -5's that this mornings GFS run is showing to come to fruition...it will be May after all! FYI nights start drawing in in 8 weeks time...

    Pressure remains tentatively high across southern Britain on Wednesday, so another mostly dry and bright prospect, and further pleasant sunny spells, although it may cloud over somewhat during the afternoon with a spit of rain here and there. Highs on Wednesday a rather cool 12 or 13c for West Wales but an average 15 perhaps 16c for the Midlands. Light winds and clear spells threaten yet another frost for Wednesday night, with a widespread ground frost at the very least (ground frosts are typically still common in early May). An increasingly 'messy' look to the charts by Thursday with relatively high pressure trying to stick close to the UK, whilst at the same time slack areas of low pressure and weather fronts seem set to chip away at it threatening some rain or showers in places as we progress through the day. Nothing majorly wet is on the cards for Thursday, and no doubt some areas will remain dry again. We are still under cool upper atmospheric air for early May, so temperatures again no great shakes reaching between 13 and 16c. Probably clouding over during Thursday night which will prevent any frost from forming.

    Fair model agreement on a more definite breakdown to unsettled weather on Friday, as a developing area of low pressure lies somewhere over the UK, with its attendant rain bands and showers. Friday looks like one of those days where it could be very chilly where it stays wet, maxima say just 9c, but a more respectable 13c where it brightens. Incidentally, it could be cold enough for snow over northern hills on Friday! It all depends on where this low decides to track. Low pressure close enough to provide further showers on Saturday, but then from Sunday, a warmer, although not necessarily dry phase may be starting...although the Jury is out on whether the May Day Bank Holiday will be wet or dry!
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Some rain at times, becoming mild mid week; very cool and showery from Friday with potentially damaging frosts next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Last week saw strong winds with some rain at times, but amounts of rain were generally small. April is shaping up to be a dry month for the Midlands, and with quite small amounts of rain likely in the coming week again here. It was quite warm for the Midlands to mid week, mild rather than warm for West Wales, then we all cooled off on Thursday, and Friday night saw a widespread air frost, but at least the week ended bright and dry. Another rather changeable week with some rain and showers about, mild mid week, especially for the Mdlands, but then the week ends on a very cool and showery note with sharp night frosts making an unwelcome return.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rain and drizzle for West Wales this Sunday afternoon, and a cloudy afternoon for the Midlands with a little rain later. Skies clear overnight with a ground frost in places. A rather unsettled start to the working week, Monday dawns dry but quickly clouding over for West Wales as the next Atlantic fronts arrive. A cool and rather wet day for West Wales on Monday, most of the rain and drizzle fairly light though, but a very unpleasant, damp and breezy day. Light rain and drizzle then gets to the Midlands by mid afternoon after a bright start to the day here. Although we will be within a warm sector by Monday evening, this mildness will not be apparent through the daytime, what with the dampness and cool westerly breeze at the surface, so maxima of just 10 to 12c will be during the early evening. The weakening cold front will be strung out over Wales and the Midlands on Monday night, so a rather cloudy night with drizzle in places, but it should have dried up by dawn on Tuesday. High pressure close by to our south on Tuesday but still a weak front legacy over the UK, so a rather cloudy but dry day, bar the odd spot of drizzle for West Wales. It could well brighten in the afternoon over the Midlands, and if so pleasantly mild reaching 17c locally, however for cloudier West Wales highs just 12 to 15c, but with much less of a breeze during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168711:PPVG89 Mon cool some rain.png][attachment=168712:PPVJ89 Tue wk front r cloudy milder.png][attachment=168713:ecmt850.072 dry r cloudy mild Tue to Wed.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Synoptic charts becoming difficult to decipher as early as Wednesday this week, but the trend will be for the relatively mild air to be pushed away to our south by Thursday, and with some quite wet weather possible in the transition process, with a slow moving frontal zone likely to linger over Wales and the Midlands well into Thursday. High pressure keeps much of Wednesday dry for the south, but a slow moving cold front could well bring rain to Wales through Wednesday afternoon, although this is not yet 'nailed' and we could get another mostly dry day instead? In any case, the Midlands more likely to stay dry for most of Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday dependent on the progress of the cold front, so if the Midlands manages to stay dry and bright, then a rather warm day in prospect with highs up to a rather warm 18c, but conversely, should West Wales have the cloudy, damp day that seems likely, a cool 11 or 12c only here. If Wednesday was difficult to forecast, then Thursday is little more than guesswork! Slack pressure on Thursday so light winds look almost guaranteed, if not the other elements of the days weather which could be wet or dry! We will have the slow moving front from Wednesday to contend with, this lying somewhere over southern Britain, but it is difficult to tell just how active it will be at this stage, as we also have a ridge of high pressure over central UK. It does though look like the mild air will have been displaced south by Thursday, and where (if) it turns out wet then a very cool day of highs below 10c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168714:PPVL89 changes mild but perhaps wet later.png][attachment=168715:metslp.96 CF Wales Wed.png][attachment=168717:h850t850eu CF into mild Wed.png][attachment=168718:PPVO89 Thu weakenig front Mids.png][attachment=168719:ecmt850.120 cool down Thu R after front.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Things seem more sorted out for the end of the week perversely, with high pressure out over the Atlantic and low pressure over the Continent to our east, this means a cool, very cool even, northerly flow for Friday and next weekend. The last of any rain will clear on Thursday night with clear spells and a ground frost developing, lows getting down towards zero. A bright start to Friday, but showers will develop, these becoming heavy with hail and thunder in places, more likely for the Midlands. Disappointing highs between 9 and 11c on Friday in spite of the sunny intervals. Very cool upper air for the time of year is over the UK next Saturday (-6c at 5000 feet), so a frosty dawn on Saturday (6am if you are up), given clear spells on Friday night. Another day of sunny intervals and heavy showers, some with hail again, and a very cool day, maxima struggling to even reach doubles figures 10c. It is possible we could be under a cold ridge next Saturday night, which would be an ideal set up for a notably cold late April night, -5c not out of the question, and a damaging frost for gardeners to watch out for. However, that is a week away and it may be somewhat different come the time. The cool, rather unsettled theme looks like continuing into the start of May, with the heat going to Eastern Europe unfortunately![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168720:h850t850eu cool showery Fri.png][attachment=168721:ecmt850.144 cool showery Sat.png][attachment=168722:ecmt850.168 Sun cold R notable late frost poss.png][attachment=168723:ukmintemp exceptionally cold night under R Sun possible.png][attachment=168724:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff.png][attachment=168725:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  18. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Rain at times, breezy, becoming dry late in the week; temperatures around average[/b]

    Last week witnessed the passing of the Winter that refused to let go! Near average temperatures for the most part, although the Midlands only warmed slowly. We all have seen some rain of late, although it took until Thursday for measurable rain in my gauge to end the 18 day 'frosty drought' which had parched and dessicated the countryside locally.

    A very wet night and Sunday morning for West Wales with over an inch of rain in my rain gauge. In contrast only a little rain for the Midlands today where it is proving to be the warmest day so far this year, into the mid 60's Fahrenheit here, in the warm sector air ahead of the front that is giving Wales all the rain. This rain has now cleared through West Wales to give sunny intervals and the odd shower, while the Midlands gets some showery rain at times the rest of this afternoon, lowering the temperatures.

    On Monday a fairly mild SW wind brings plenty of cloud but also sunny intervals. Mainly dry apart from the odd light shower scattered about, highs 13 to 16c. By evening a low pressure is passing close to Ireland and brings rain to Wales with a freshening wind once more. Overnight this mostly light rain spreads to the Midlands as well, quite a mild night lows of 6 or 7c. Tuesday starts with light rain in places, but this soon clears to sunny spells and a few passing showers, a brisk SW breeze and maxima of 12 to 15c. A slight hint of higher pressure kills off any showers to leave clear spells until further cloud spreads from the SW before dawn. The next in the succession of lows arrives over Ireland later on Wednesday, bringing more wet weather, and it could be a washout day for West Wales, as we will be within a rain producing warm sector similar to today's, so the potential for another inch of rain here. The Midlands also seeing some rain at times through Wednesday. Quite a windy day too for Wednesday, cool in the rain for Wales highs just 11c, but up to 14c for the Midlands which is around to the mid April mean.

    By Thursday the low is over Scandinavia with a cooler showery NW airstream, noticeably cooler for the Midlands with highs 11 or 12c. The showers die out Thursday night with a touch of ground frost in places. For Friday high pressure is close to our SW, so a fine if not especially warm day with decent sunshine, highs of 12 to 14c. High pressure over England on Saturday so a largely sunny day after a slight frost at dawn. Temperatures higher on Saturday reaching a respectable 13 to 17c. Unfortunately it does not look as though our end of week high will hang around, because through Sunday it starts to turn more unsettled again, with westerly winds arriving from a deep low close to Iceland, this looking set to bring rain bands and wind into the week that follows.
  19. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Cool and unsettled; rain and wind at times, mostly dry Friday/ Saturday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A cold but dry start to April, coldest over the Midlands last week with more cloud, while plenty of sunshine for West Wales meant that 9 or 10c in the afternoons felt pleasant out of the wind, and I understand that it was pleasant enough to sit outside on Saturday afternoon for the Midlands too. An exceptionally cold Friday night across Wales, the official Met Office stations of Trawsgoed and Sennybridge recording -7c, while my amateur site incredibly got down to -8.5c around dawn on Saturday, quite a few Winters have not managed so low! Comfortably the lowest April temperature I have read in my lifetime, incidentally the coldest ever April night in Wales was -11.2c back on 11th April 1978 at Corwen (diolch [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather"]@DerekTheWeather[/url][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] ). Coventry had it's coldest April night since 1990 today down to -3.6c (thanks [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]@bablakewx[/url][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] ) Three successive nights below -6c here now to this morning, that is the last extreme cold night though. It is now 15 days since measurable rain (or snow) fell at my weather station, the second such 'drought' in just two months. Milder air struggles to get over us in the coming week, it does of a fashion, but only to around the mid April average of 11 to 13c and this not until the very end of the week, and there will be rain at times, especially mid week.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Clouding over on Sunday afternoon but staying dry, with highs around 9c and a cold SE wind affecting West Wales in particular. Most parts dry tonight with clear spells leading to a slight frost, however a little rain may affect SW Wales, keeping it frost-free there. Weak weather fronts lie over SW Britain on Monday so a rather cloudy day with light rain in places, this more especially for SW Wales. Some sunny intervals, these most likely for the Midlands, another rather cool day, highs of 9 or 10c, with a keen ESE breeze making it feel even colder. Clear intervals leading to a slight frost in places on Monday night, although as low pressure moves into SW England further rain will threaten SW Wales and the South Midlands, this perhaps even producing sleet or snow over the Brecon Beacons and Cotswolds. This low pressure sits over southern England whilst filling up during Tuesday, which will be a cold and raw day with rain at times, some perhaps heavy in places. Maxima very poor for April at just 6 to 9c, mildest for SW Wales.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167903:PPVG89 cool breezy little rain Mon.png][attachment=167904:PPVJ89 cold raw rain at times Tue.png][attachment=167905:h850t850eu Tue cold raw rain times.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A messy synoptic set up into Wednesday with the old weather front strung out across England and Wales, as the next low edges in from the west. Even by mid week though, our cold air mass legacy from early April and before, is proving reluctant to move away, and is why it will be feeling disappointingly cool still. Still some showery rain and hill sleet or snow about through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, although any clear intervals resulting in a slight frost the air so chilly. Rain dying out for a time on Wednesday even some bright intervals, but another cool day highs just 7 to 9c. By Wednesday night the next and deep low is moving into SW England or South Wales bringing heavy rain and strong winds, not just rain either, as the low engages our cold air mass, Snowdonia and the Peak District seeing more sleet or snow. More rain and wind for Thursday morning, the wind turns NW in the afternoon as the low crosses England, so a cool, showery afternoon and evening in store, with hail in places, and highs on Thursday just 6 to 9c depending on amounts of sunshine during the afternoon.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167906:ecmt850.072 messy cool unsettled Tue Wed.png][attachment=167907:PPVL89 Wed messy cool unsettled.png][attachment=167908:ecmt850.096 wet windy Wed night.png][attachment=167909:PPVO89 cool rain or showers windy Thu.png][attachment=167910:h850t850eu cool showery Thu after rain.png][/size][/font]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Friday could well be the best day of the week, as the low is well to our east, with a bit of a ridge over the UK. A frosty start to Friday, then a fairly sunny and dry day for most, bar an isolated shower, and highs of 10 to 12c which is close to the mid April average.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167911:metslp.120 quiet Fri.png][attachment=167912:ecmt850.144 Fri m dry frost sun.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]It was looking as though the weekend would see a significant warm up, with mild southerly winds affecting the UK, however this is now less defined, and may well be just a 'blip'. GFS keeps relatively high pressure over England through most of the weekend, and with sunny spells temperatures would reach above average at 13 to 15c, however ECM has a nasty Atlantic low piling in by Saturday night. So according to the ECM model only Saturday may stay mild and fine, then strong to gale force southerly winds and heavy rain arrives by Saturday night and could give a washout next Sunday. Even GFS brings the rain and wind later on Sunday. It does though look as like we will have seen the back of Winter at long last come next weekend (more like Autumn perhaps!).[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167913:ecmt850.168 IL gales heavy rain late Sat Sun.png][attachment=167914:h850t850eu fine mild weekend.png][/size][/font]
  20. TonyH
    [font=arial,helvetica,sans-serif][size=4][b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells; quite cold with night frosts[/b]

    So ends the coldest March since at least 1962, and the coldest month of 'Winter'. This fact all the more remarkable as we had a fairly cold Winter, this the first time March has been colder than a colder than average Winter since 1786 for Central England! Here in West Wales there were only small amounts of snow through March, although some sleet or snow fell on 13 days. It has been very snowy for Warwickshire, and the temperature at Coventry has not been above 5c since Thursday 21st, a prolonged spell of exceptional cold for the late March. Last Sunday was one of the latest ever Ice Days for Coventry with a high of -0.4c. Daytimes were not as cold here in West Wales, but there have been some very low night temperatures, with -8.4c at dawn on Thursday, and then -7c on Saturday morning and -6.6c this Easter Sunday morning (incidentally Braemar in Scotland has recorded the coldest ever UK Easter Sunday at -12.4c). It is though notable how quickly the temperature recovers after dawn with the strong sunshine, it was up to +2c by 9am here a rise of over 8c in 2 hours. At least it has been a mainly dry week, and we are set to have another mainly dry week ahead, but on the cold side for early April with frosts expected on each night, although as we will be into April and the sun is gaining strength, not as cold as this past week. Spring limping into action as Winter starts to lose it's grip but at least the Daffs are out!

    Our high pressure that has blocked the mild Atlantic for so long is centred north of Scotland until mid week, so the mostly dry and decidedly chilly/ cold spell continues. Low pressure is squeezing into the high on Monday so a fresh to strong SE wind to start the week, especially windy West Wales. Sunny spells for most places and predominantly dry, just the odd wintry shower possible for the East Midlands. Maxima on Monday in the 5 to 8c range, and it almost goes without saying that the nights will be seeing sharp Spring frosts throughout the week, and as the winds lessens mid week. Some rather severe frosts again, locally down to -6c. Tuesday another dry day, lighter winds so temperatures a touch higher reaching 7 to 9c, and not feeling too bad with the sunny spells. By Wednesday a similar story with the easterly wind bringing air from a still thoroughly chilled Eastern Europe. Feeling cold again in the breeze on Wednesday in spite of the sunny spells, temperatures well below average reaching 6 to 9c, and generally dry once more, just a few wintry showers getting into the Midlands from off the North Sea.
    [attachment=167402:PPVJ89 r cold dry Tues.png][attachment=167403:h850t850eu Tues r cold m dry frosts.png][attachment=167404:ecmt850.072 slack E sharp frosts few wintry showers Wed.png]

    Winds turn more NE on Thursday so certainly not the warmer direction that we may be desperate for! Thursday and Friday quite a fresh NE wind blows bringing some wintry showers (rain, sleet or snow) mostly to the Midlands, while many places remain dry. Bright with some decent sunny spells, and West Wales may be fairly sunny later in the week, so not feeling too cold here out of the wind. Highest temperatures for Thursday and Friday a cool 7 to 9c, the highest readings for coastal West Wales where it is sunniest. Further frosts overnight, lows between -1c and -4c.
    [attachment=167405:PPVO89 Chill NE some wintry showers Thu.png][attachment=167406:ecmt850.120 chill NE some wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=167407:h850t850eu cool NE Fri few showers.png]


    High pressure close by next weekend but still the air is cool. Generally dry with plenty of sunshine but again some sharp frosts by night, as low as -5c in places. Daytime temperatures on the mend and eventually by Sunday we could hit the dizzy heights of 10c (although still below average!).[/size][/font]
  21. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Unseasonably cold with hard frosts and some wintry showers; milder, unsettled Easter weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A rather cold week gone, especially for the Midlands, although Monday to Wednesday were not too bad here in West Wales, it even felt quite pleasant in the sunny intervals, however there was still sleet or snow showers in places too. Then came the rain and snow! Over two inches of rain fell here in 24 hours during Thursday/ Friday, and with snow for the Midlands on Saturday and Sunday, 4 - 6 inches generally falling over Warwickshire. Parts of NE Wales and the Peak District have seen almost TWO FEET of snow falling since Friday night, without taking into account the drifting! It has turned very cold this weekend for all of us, Saturday's maximum of +0.2c made it the coldest March day in Coventry since the infamous March 1947. The unseasonable weather continues for most if not all of the coming week, the final week of what is set to become the coldest March since 1962 for many areas. A White Easter is just as likely (unlikely!) as a White Christmas, so will the cold last long enough for snow to fall over the Easter Weekend?[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The 'Battle Royale' discussed in last week's guide that has given the amazing Spring snowfalls, has decisively been won by the cold this weekend as the blocking high to our north reasserts and the mild Atlantic air is deflected to Spain. The belt of high stretching from Greenland to Scandinavia holds firm through to mid week, with very cold easterly winds blowing across the UK. This air has originated from Arctic northern Russia and has travelled over the Continent chilled by an unseasonably cold and snowy March. Mostly cloudy and very cold again for the rest of Sunday, light snow over the Midlands slowly dying out, with perhaps a few flakes in the air for West Wales this afternoon too. 'Highs' of 0 to +2c, indeed parts of the Midlands scraping an 'Ice Day' which is almost unprecedented at this time of year! Monday to Wednesday very, very cold for the end of March, and with a bitter east wind we will be getting highs of just 1 to 4c, whereas the late March average is 11c. Some of the Midlands seeing further Ice Days even? Hard penetrating frosts by night, minima dependant on the extent to which skies clear and winds drop, but -3c to -5c would be general lows for Monday to Wednesday nights, severe enough frosts given the overnight breeze, but the potential is there for -8c in places over snow fields. A mainly dry spell this with sunny intervals but also some snow flurries, these few and far between and not expected to give much in the way of accumulation through Monday and Tuesday. Some places, especially Pembrokeshire, will miss these altogether. The fresh east wind turns more to the NE on Wednesday, when some areas will see more significant snow showers putting down a covering.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=166617:ecmt850.024 bitter Sunday March 24th 2013.png][attachment=166618:PPVE89 Historical cold chart Mon.png][attachment=166619:PPVJ89 Ex cold snow flurries possible.png][attachment=166620:ecmt850.072 ex cold Tue Ice day places snow flurries.png][attachment=166621:PPVL89 v cold snow showers WEd.png][attachment=166624:prectypeuktopo snow showers Wed.png][attachment=166622:ukmintemp severe frost THu.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Thursday the NE flow slackens with lighter winds, so after another hard frost a better chance of sunny spells and somewhat less cold temperatures, although maxima of 5 to 7c are still well below the late March average. Still the chance of a few wintry showers getting into the Midlands off the North Sea on Thursday, but a dry and fairly sunny day for West Wales is likely. Yet another frosty night to follow. Low pressure is attempting to push rain fronts into SW UK on Friday, a rather similar situation to what happened the week gone. The usual varied possibilities being played out in the models for the end of the week, with low pressure approaching from the west; one recent scenario of further battleground snowfalls over Good Friday and the Easter weekend now seemingly morphing into a milder outlook after transient snow for some on Friday. The model output concensus seems to be for a much milder weekend with showers or longer spells of rain, with the latest GFS showing maxima of 12 to 14c, more where the mercury should be by early April! There does however still remain a possibilty that the cold block puts up an end of the week fight back which could bring more widespread and heavy snow for Friday and Saturday, but this is the less likely option. Good Friday therefore looks like our only chance to realise a 'White Easter' (sleet or snow falling from the sky!)[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=166623:metslp.120 cold wintry showers Thu.png][attachment=166625:Recm1442 L blocked Sat snow potential SW.gif][attachment=166626:h850t850eu milder wet GF.png][attachment=166627:ukmaxtemp mild unsettled Sat.png][attachment=166628:Recm1922 milder wet Easter Monday.gif][attachment=166629:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  22. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Cold/ cool: Showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow; night frost and some fog[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]So far March has delivered pleasant warmth, severe frosts and snow! Everything but the kitchen sink again in the coming week (excepting warmth that is). Spring is still on hold, the hard frosts stunting most growth, the Daffs having a real struggle to bloom still. Coventry had it's coldest March day since 1970 on Monday managing a high of just +0.7c (cf +0.3c). On Thursday morning Llanwnnen breached -10c, colder than any official UK weather stations! The rains proper returned on Friday to Ceredigion after an absence of a month, only 5mm having accumulated in the previous 29 days. Then yesterday afternoon, very heavy snow showers affected this area putting down an inch in just half hour. Snow was still lying this morning at Llanwnnen making it the first 'day of lying snow' in March since 2006, although snow lay briefly here on April 6th 2008. Another chilly week ahead and again the threat of snow in places, especially later when high ground could be seeing blizzard conditions.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Heavy snow in parts of the Midlands this morning, parts of southern England have had 4 inches! However for West Wales it's bright after the early fog, although some wintry showers likely through this afternoon, don't be surprised to see some snow and hail in the heavier showers. Maxima today generally between 5 and 8c, although colder for parts of the East Midlands where snow and rain lasts longest into this afternoon. With a very complicated complex low pressure over the UK and containing cold air, I would not rule out further surprise snow events cropping up locally tonight, so a few more of us could wake to a fresh covering on Monday morning. Many of us waking to a frost and also fog in places on Monday, irrespetive of whether it has snowed or not, then a bright day of sunny spells and some further showers. Very little wind on Monday so any showers could be slow- moving with hail and thunder, although any snow should be restricted to the higher hills. Less cool, maxima of 7 to 9c, so feeling pleasant enough in sunny spells.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Most of the showers die out on Monday night with clearing skies so another frosty one with fog patches forming quite widely again too. A bright or foggy start to Tuesday, then a few showers developing into the afternoon, before a front over northern parts edges down later in the day. Colder air once more trying to edge down, there will be rain or sleet on this front, that again may turn to snow in places during Tuesday evening and night, mainly, but not exclusively for high ground. So, once more some areas awaking to a snow cover on Wednesday morning. These repeated snow threats should they come to fruition would be turning this into an unusually cold and snowy March! Our resident low has filled up by Wednesday with a legacy of cloud and showery rain, sleet or snow in places, which should be dying out by the afternoon. A cold and mainly cloudy day on Wednesday, highs only between 4 and 6c. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164954:PPVE89 (1) complex cold L surprise snow tonight possibles.png][attachment=164955:h850t850eu Mon flabby low little wind showers.png][attachment=164956:PPVJ89 filling L south Occ N some showers or rain, snow.png][attachment=164957:ecmt850.072 filling L colder snow threat Tues night.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By mid week there is large blocking cold high from Greenland to Scandinavia, while Atlantic lows attempt to move into the UK. In the meantime for Wednesday night into Thursday we are in a 'No Man's Land' weather wise as the battle between cold and milder takes shape, suggesting more snow possibilities even to end the week! Quite a sharp frost for Wednesday night as skies clear, down to -5c in places. A cold day with plenty of sunshine on Thursday, it should stay dry for the Midlands, but cloud and perhaps rain arriving into West Wales during the evening. Highs disappointing again at just 5 to 7c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164961:PPVO89 let the battle commence Thu.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A 'Battle Royale' for Friday and much of next weekend with the cold block over Scandinavia most reluctant to give way, and directing a fresh incursion of very cold air over northern Britain. Meanwhile the low pressure area west of Ireland through this period sends rain fronts into SW and central parts. Suffice to say that Friday into the weekend looks pretty cold and windy, with spells of wet weather at times. The big question is will this rain turn to snow? With some heavy rain around through Friday and Saturday, coupled with a drag of cold SE to east winds over Wales and the Midlands, some of this rain is likely to turn to snow in places, in fact for higher ground there could be near blizzard conditions at times through this period. This is quite likely to be causing some travel disruption, more especially for the Peaks and above 250m across Wales. Most of SW Wales will be wondering what all the fuss is about with plain wet and windy weather for lowland Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion, although even the hills here may see snow at times. A very cold, raw day on Friday, maxima between 2 and 5c, feeling really cold. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=164958:metslp.120 block vs Atl Fri wind rain hill snow.png][attachment=164960:h850t850eu battle FRi wet windy cold.png][attachment=164959:ecmt850.144 battle snow threat Fri to Sat.png][/size][/font][attachment=164965:ukmaxtemp blizzards high up FRi v cold.png]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]For the weekend and GFS has less cold air winning out on Saturday meaning just rain or showers, but then drags cold air back down for Sunday with at least a hill snow likelihood. ECM though maintains the battle throughout so a real risk of heavy snowfalls in places if this model is correct for next weekend. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=164962:h850t850eu less cold wins out Sat.png][attachment=164963:ecmt850.168 v cold Sun more snow threats SW.png][attachment=164964:mgram_Birmingham cold outlook.png]
  23. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Very cold with some snow showers, becoming less cold with some rain, night frosts[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The prolonged dry spell has ended, although not spectacularly so, with only small amounts of rain for some of us over recent days, so only a meagre 4mm here so far this month. Llanwnnen managed 21 dry days on the trot up to last Wednesday, 3 or 4 weeks is about as long a dry spell as we can expect here in damp West Wales! Most of West Wales and the Central Midlands had a lovely sunny day though last Tuesday, West Wales being the warmest part of the UK, Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth reaching 17.5c, Llanwnnen 16c and Coventry 14c. Tuesday saw a massive daily temperature range here from a dawn low of -5.5c to the afternoon high of 16c, a 21.5c rise in just 7 hours. West Wales has had a mild week, while temperatures have struggled to reach average for the Midlands since Wednesday with all the mist and murk. Hardly any daffodils out here in time for St David's Day and it is doubtful there will be many blooming even as we reach mid March, with a big change underway during Sunday to very cold conditions for the early part of this week, and then much of the coming week remaining quite cold for March.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A raw, cloudy afternoon on Sunday with a decaying cold front over the Midlands giving light sleet or snow at times, enough for a covering in places, especially over high ground. Another front is trying to edge into SW Wales but only bringing it's rain into Pembrokeshire. Maxima of just 3c for the Midlands and 5c for West Wales. The weak front could just give a few snow flurries to parts of West Wales this evening before dying out completely, to leave a frosty night with clearing skies, although with further snow showers affecting parts of the Midlands to give a slight covering by morning in places here.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure is centred over Iceland on Monday with the low over France, a real squeeze in the isobars meaning a strong bitterly cold east wind. As the wind is strong, snow showers off the North Sea will make it across the Midlands, where there may be further slight accumulations, but the snow should not cause too many problems on Monday. A few snow showers even getting as far as West Wales, but generally dry with sunny spells here. This is the coldest incursion of air all 'Winter', but as we are now well into March, and days are longer and the sun higher in the sky, temperatures will get substantially higher than they would have with the same air in January. Still, a bitterly cold day, maxima of just 1 or 2c, and with significant windchill on Monday. Still a keen wind blows through Monday night, a really penetrating hard frost down to -4c widely, and -6c for a few. Meanwhile temperatures at 5000 feet up in the clouds will be -14c, the lowest 850hPa upper atmosphere temperatures for years.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163744:PPVG89 Mon bitter windy snow showers.png][attachment=163745:ecmt850.048 Mon.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Tuesday we are between high pressure to the west and low to the east, another very cold day with a fresh NE wind. mostly dry with sunny spells, and just the odd sleet or snow shower for the Midlands, maxima of 3 to 5c. Less cold air seeps down from the north later Tuesday, so although frosty again temperatures only down to -2c or so. A lighter northerly breeze for Wednesday, sunny intervals but with some weak weather fronts moving down bringing some rain or sleet showers at times. Another cold day, maxima of 6 or 7c. Light winds and a ridge of high pressure for Wednesday night means a colder night, lows of -5c in places. Still under the ridge on Thursday so a fine and quite sunny day, but still rather cold maxima around 7c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163746:PPVJ89 Tues cold few showers.png][attachment=163747:ecmt850.096 m dry cold R Thu bright.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Friday things are changing with a low approaching NW Britain, milder SW winds with some rain at times, highs of 8 or 9c, close to the March average. This low remains over or very close to the UK next weekend so unsettled with spells of rain or showers at times, and with quite cold air within the circulation, hill snow will be a threat, so the Peak District and Welsh hills perhaps seeing further snow next weekend. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=163748:metslp.120 milder turns unsettled Fri.png][attachment=163749:h850t850eu L nearing NW UK Fri rain at times.png][attachment=163750:ecmt850.144 Fri Sat rain or showers milder L to Ire.png][/size][/font]
  24. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mild, dry to start, then unsettled with rain at times[/b]

    A prolonged late Winter dry spell has been welcomed after the preceding deluge since last April! 17 consecutive dry days at Llanwnnen and counting, while the dry run at Coventry was broken by a measly 0.2mm fall on Friday. Overall February was rather dry for West Wales and average to rather wet for the Midlands. February being the driest month of the year in some areas, so although the 44mm that fell on Rugby during February seems a low figure it is actually slightly above average, Coventry was more definitely wet having 58mm ([url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url])

    The dry weather lasts a few more days, we get much milder conditions in the coming week, but from mid week we see a return of the rain. A hard early March frost in places last night, here in my frost prone spot, -7.3c was recorded this morning, not unusual for March, but lower than any of the official UK weather stations today. High pressure that has dominated our weather for almost 3 weeks, slips away east during Monday, but still projects a ridge across the UK. So after another frosty start, Monday continues the dry spell, variable cloud with sunny intervals, highs of 8 or 9c again. Probably the last frost of the week on Monday night, and only a slight one at that, lows around -1c. On Tuesday we are between high pressure well to the east and low pressure edging up from the SW, with a mild SE airstream having originated over North Africa affecting the British Isles. Most places staying dry with sunny intervals through Tuesday, although clouding over later for West Wales with the odd spot of rain by evening. Maxima of 12 or 13c, the mildest we have seen so far this young year.
    [attachment=162839:PPVG89 H recedes dry bright Mon.png][attachment=162840:PPVK89 rain west late Tue.png]

    The low centred to the SW of Ireland continues to pump up mild SE to southerly winds throughout Wednesday and Thursday, more widespread outbreaks of rain or showers tracking north, with some heavy bursts of rain at times, so the Midlands also joins in with a wetter theme! Indeed West Wales could be in for a real soaking as a succession of rain fronts pass over later Wednesday and Thursday. Brief sunny intervals possible between the showery outbreaks, feeling mild in these, highs of 10 to 12c, but with a moderate to fresh breeze. Nights also much milder from mid week, so that by Wednesday night most places remain above 7c (time to reduce the Central Heating?). The low pressure keeps spinning around to the west or SW of Ireland even to the end of the week, with further rain or heavy showers about on Friday, perhaps some warm sunny intervals between, highs around 14c in places, more especially SW Wales, well above the early March average of 8 or 9c. On the other hand, any rain areas that do develop on Friday could well be slow moving, and where it stays wet highs nearer 10c.
    [attachment=162841:ecmt850.072 mild unsettled SE Wed.png][attachment=162842:PPVO89 mild very unsettled Thu.png][attachment=162846:metslp.96 mild unsettled Wed THu.png][attachment=162843:ecmt850.120 mild v unsettled Fri.png]

    Next weekend and some very cold air will be getting into Scotland from the NE, bringing snow in places up there, however Wales and the Midlands should still be in the milder air circulating the low close to our SW. Further rain and showers over the weekend, frosts unlikely, and with highs between 9 and 12c. A chance that the colder air makes it on Sunday but this should hold off until a late taste of Winter for the week that follows, even with snow showers in places, this cold snap strongly suggested by recent model output.
    [attachment=162844:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler by Sun.png][attachment=162845:h850t850eu unsettled cooler weekend.png][attachment=162847:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff cold snap following week.png]
  25. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing mostly dry but less cold, night frosts. Rather cloudy.[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The change to much colder conditions took place on schedule last Wednesday. A remarkable temperature range on Tuesday here, from -6c minimum up to +11c (17c) thanks to the West Wales foehn effect, in which the easterly breeze desecending the nearby Cambrian hills dried out and warmed considerably, this effect shown by the very low humidity of 39% during the afternoon. A cloudy cold spell this for the Midlands has prevented really cold nights, nothing below -1c since Wednesday at Coventry. It has been very dry of late, 10 successive dry days here in Lampeter is the longest dry spell since June 2010 (which had 14 days), and not before time! No measurable rain (or snow) for Warwickshire either, where Bablake School, Coventry has now recorded 10 consecutive dry days (below 0.2mm), but here only the longest spell since just before the Midlands 'drought' ended last April. The Midlands had a little light snow yesterday, but barely enough for a covering for the majority. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly dry week ahead with high pressure over or close to the UK throughout, and although still on the cold side, less cold than have been the past 5 days. The Scandinavian high that has provided this cold spell gradually transfers south-west to be centred over northern UK early this week, and so the really cold air supply from Russia is cut off as we come more under the circulation of the high itself. Clear intervals developing tonight with another frost, coldest for West Wales where it gets down to -4c in parts. Still a cold NE wind for Monday and with weak fronts being carried west across England and Wales, there will be a little drizzle or sleet in places, mostly for the Midlands but not amounting to much. A cloudy day with highs of just 4 or 5c. Similar for Tuesday, so after a slight frost, a mostly cloudy day with spits of drizzle or sleet in the air, more especially for the Midlands. Sunny intervals for parts of West Wales during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162118:PPVG89 Int H N m dry cold Mon.png][attachment=162119:ecmt850.048 cold NE flow Mon.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Wednesday or Thursday the high is centred over or just west of Ireland, and so winds are very light and the air less cold. Variable cloud through Wednesday and Thursday, some of us seeing sunny intervals while others remain largely overcast, difficult to say just where gets any sun though. Temperatures a little milder, reaching 6 to 8c, although any clear intervals will lead to frost and some fog patches readily forming overnight. In fact where fog does form on Wednesday or Thursday it could well be slow to clear during the daytime with so little wind, and where the fog and murk lasts all morning highs of just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162120:PPVK89 Int H Scot less cold dry frosts.png][attachment=162123:h850t850eu H north UK dry less cold Wed.png][attachment=162121:ecmt850.096 H Ire Thu dry less cold fog.png][attachment=162122:metslp.96 H Ire Thu dry brighter.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure still close by to the north-west on Friday, a suggestion that milder Atlantic air tracks about the high, so the mildest day of the week on Friday perhaps, with maxima around the early March average of 8 or 9c. A dry day with sunny intervals, after overnight frost and fog clears. There were strong indications for an Arctic cold blast bringing wintry showers over next weekend through the recent days model output, however this has now been much watered down due to high pressure remaining close to the UK, and with the main cold northerly thrust being pushed into the Continent instead. In fact the latest model runs suggest Saturday will be a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and average temperatures of 8 to 10c. So at the moment it looks as though the UK will miss out on the next potential cold snap? However, it is not at all unusual for sharp frosts and snow showers to fall at any stage during March even though technically we are into Spring![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162124:ecmt850.144 Sat R dry bright frosts.png][/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162125:ecmt850.168 dry colder Sun sharp frosts.png][/size][/font]
×
×
  • Create New...