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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable but often quite warm; potentially very wet late Thursday/ Friday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Reasonably warm for much of last week, the Midlands being most consistently warm, some places here getting above 23c each day up to Friday. Mostly dry still to the end of July, although parts of the Midlands, especially Warwickshire, caught thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon (31st July). Church Lawford near Rugby had 15mm most of which fell in just one hour in the late afternoon, while Hatton, Warwick had 21.5mm from these afternoon storms. West Wales (WW) cooled down by the end of the week and it was wet in many places too on Friday into Saturday, some spots having more rain in 24 hours than in the whole of July! In the 24 hours to 0600 Saturday Aberporth had 44.6mm, Trawsgoed 36mm and Pembrey Sands 31mm. Some spectacular thunderstorms over the Midlands on Saturday, Evesham hard hit with 2cm hail and torrential rain.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]July 2014 was a warm and sunny month, and most places were dry too, although locally thunderstorms made it wetter than average. Much of West Wales had a very dry month with less than half the average rainfall. Some monthly totals:[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Mona, Anglesey 56.2mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Trawsgoed 45mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 34.6mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pembrey Sands 25.6mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanelli 37.1mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coleshill 41.2mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry, Bablake School 53mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Church Lawford 41.6mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Long Lawford 33.4mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pershore, Worc 69.6mm[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The rather deep low that gave all the rain and showers on Saturday is now over Scotland and moving away but with a rather tight circulation about it making for quite a windy day. Sunday afternoon then bright and breezy, sunny spells but some showers for North Wales in particular. Highs a pleasant 20 to 22c although tempered by the fresh SW wind, cooler though for showery Snowdonia. Bar the odd shower for West Wales WW a dry night with cool temperatures, lows around 10c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Relatively high pressure close to southern Britain on Monday as our low edges off north leaving just the odd scattered shower, but a mostly dry day with sunny spells, highs around the early August average once more at 20 to 23c. A rather cool and clear night follows down to 8c in places. A front makes slow progress in from the west during Tuesday bringing showery rain to WW by midday and onto the Midlands by late afternoon. Warm sunny spells ahead of the showery rain, 24c for the East Midlands but nearer 21c for WW. Quite light winds on both Monday and Tuesday. The rather nondescript pressure pattern lasts into Wednesday too, although lows are gathering west of Ireland. One of those 'iffy' days - there will be some pleasant sunny breaks but showers, even longer spells of rain never far away and so you would be fortunate to escape dry! Temperatures not too bad again in the 20 to 24c range, so feeling pretty warm in the sunny intervals. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Nights from mid week on should be mild, say in the 12 to 15c bracket. Although there will be some fine and warm interludes from mid week, we are increasingly seeing potential for wet weather from time to time. Time being of the essence, as at this forecasting range just where and when then rain will fall is open to speculation. Thursday and we may just get away with a generally dry and warm day with sunny spells, maxima between 21 to 25c as the synoptic charts appear rather featureless and slack. Of course we should not rule out a few sharp showers for Thursday afternoon being set off by the warm sunshine! Good model agreement that a low incorporating some warm, humid air will cross southern Britain on Thursday night and Friday, so this bringing some very heavy and perhaps thundery rain where it decides to track - with Wales at the moment seemingly favourite for the wettest weather going into Friday. The prospect of some 6 to 12 hours of heavy rain then for certain areas going into Friday, the East Midlands perhaps not seeing too much rain and given some brightness a humid 24c possible here, compared to a cool 18c for cloudy, damper parts of Wales. Where this low hits a good 25mm rain is likely so something to be aware of given flooding potential.. proviso: this low may decide to arrive early and spoil Thursday afternoon for WW! [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend and low pressure never far away so always the threat of showers or longer spells of rain, some areas perhaps not so wet however as we may see temporary ridging. Temperatures well up to average, even on the warm side reaching between 20 and 25c, there should also be some sunny spells.[/font][/color]
  2. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Fairly dry and quite warm with sunny spells; unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Mostly dry and very warm then hot last week. The highest temperature readings of the year occurring between Wednesday and Saturday which you could call a 'heatwave' with highest station readings being 27.9c at Valley, Anglesey and 27.3c MIlford Haven, Pembrokeshire on Wednesday, 29.5c at Llanelli (personal weather station PWS), 29.3c Porthmadog and 28.8c Wellesbourne all on Thursday, 26.7c Little Rissington on both Thursday and Friday, 29.5c here in my garden on Friday, finally Saturday 28.5c Coleshill, 28.3c Church Lawford and 27.8c Coventry. Porthmadog in North Wales attained 29c each of the 3 days Wed to Fri and was one of the UK hotspots for the week. Some warm nights too, Mumbles, near Swansea only fell to 19.7c on Wednesday night, and no night read lower than 18c from Wednesday to Friday, for most of us inland however a more tolerable 12 to 15c by night. Hardly any rain last week, some places essentially bone dry all week, and needless to say sunshine was plentiful - all in all a wonderful week's weather! Back to more typical Summer fayre for the coming week, with temperatures closer to average, but often rather warm, and some, generally small amounts of rain. Turning more decidely unsettled by the weekend, but all in all this good Summer continues largely unscathed.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A weak cold front changed our air mass to a cooler, fresher Atlantic one overnight. Sunday then is a bright and breezy day, mostly dry but a few showers especially by this evening and over Wales. Much cooler than of late, but still pleasantly warm over the Midlands at 22 or 23c, but down to a more average 19 or 20c for West Wales. The breeze is moderate to fresh from the NW. Further showery rain in places tonight, again more especially for Wales as some fronts move down in the flow, an easier night for sleep with lows of 11 to 13c. Messy charts for Monday with various weak weather fronts and a ridge vying for supremacy. What does this mean in terms of Monday's weather? It should be generally dry and quite warm with sunny spells and a scattering of showers, these may be heavy in places. Maxima between 21 and 24c so not a bad day if you dodge the showers! The ridge wins out eventually and it is a dry night, lows of 11 to 13c again. Another weak frontal system slowly tracks SE across Wales and England on Tuesday, so some rain for Wales in particular for a time on Tuesday, but tending to die out as it reaches the Midlands and where it should be reduced to just cloud and the odd shower later in the day. Before this warm sunny spells for the Midlands and it may reach 25c in places and feeling quite humid, with more cloud its cooler for West Wales (WW) though nearer 19c, perhaps 21c should the cloud clear by late afternoon? Light winds. Dry and not too warm on Tuesday night, minima 11 to 13c. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A bit of a ridge of high pressure over southern Britain on Wednesday, so again plenty of dry weather with sunny spells, just the outside risk of a shower here and there. Decent sunny spells too on Wednesday so it turns out rather warm again highs around 21c for West Wales and 24c over the Midlands. It could be quite a fresh night lows down below 10c inland. Relatively high pressure may well hang on for Thursday too over the south, so another mostly dry and quite warm day with sunny spells in prospect. However a trough is gradually encroaching from the north threatening showery rain later in the day. Highs Thursday in the 20 to 24c bracket, probably best over the Midlands with the light west breeze cooling coasts. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]By Friday and over the weekend its looks as though it will be turning more definitely unsettled as a low sinks over Ireland or northern Britain. This solution not unanimous however, with the depth of the low unsure, and as there may be influence from heat building over the Continent once more? All in all then, Friday and the weekend turns more unsettled, so some rain or showers about, no washout, and as usual some areas escape relatively dry and even bright. Some of the showers will though be heavy and thundery. Highs somewhere in the 20 to 25c range, warmest over the Midlands.[/font][/color]
    [attachment=219941:ecmt850.024 (1) showers tonight.png][attachment=219940:PPVG89 messy MOn.png][attachment=219942:PPVJ89 wk front little rain WW warm Mids TU.png][attachment=219943:ecmt850.072 warm MIds TU.png][attachment=219944:PPVL89 m dry R Wed.png][attachment=219945:ecmt850.072 m dry Wed.png][attachment=219946:metslp.120 just about dry TH.png][attachment=219947:ecmt850.120 m dry rw TH showers by night.png][attachment=219948:ecmt850.144 showery quite warm FR.png][attachment=219949:ecmt850.168 slack unsettled rw weekend.png][attachment=219950:h850t850eu more unsettled but warm weekend.png][attachment=219951:prcpWest~Midlands unsettled weekend.png][attachment=219952:prmslWest~Midlands unsettled from FR.png][attachment=219953:t850West~Midlands rw week.png][attachment=219954:mgram_Birmingham rw week unsettled weekend.png]
  3. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Very warm and mostly dry with sunny spells; increasing chance of thundery showers from mid week.[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Again, as has been the case with much of this rather fine Summer to date, there was plenty of reasonably dry weather during the past 7 days, Llanwnnen one of the drier areas having just 8mm rain in total last week. The much heralded 'Spanish Plume' arrived with vivid lightning displays and thunderstorms on Thursday night/ early Friday, however these did not produce much rain except very locally. Thursday and Friday saw the highest temperatures of 2014 so far for most places, highest temperature readings of the week include 26.3c Llanwnnen and 26.7c Pershore on Thursday, 28.4c Coleshill, 28.4c Coventry, 27.9c Church Lawford and 26.2c Trawsgoed on Friday. These temperatures well down though on the 32.3c (90f) recorded at Gravesend, Kent on Friday, which was the hottest of the year so far for the UK. Nights were warm and sticky too to end the week, on Thursday night the temperature fell to just 17.8c here at Llanwnnen, some 7c above average minima for July, and the warmest night recorded here in the past 9 years. Some other parts of Wales were even warmer with 19.5c Pembrey Sands and 19.1c Trawscoed being the 'lows'. Widespread thunderstorms over the Midlands on Saturday, a few for parts of Wales too. These gave locally very heavy falls of rain and with hail in places, and caused flooding in such places as Gloucester, Shropshire, Nuneaton and Coventry. Around an inch (25mm) of rain falling in one hour in some places, Westonbirt, Gloucestershire the wettest spot having 79mm (over 3 inches) rain on Saturday! These storms did herald cooler weather on Saturday when Cardigan Bay coasts did not exceed 19c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The weather has not though changed to an unsettled pattern as yet, and this coming week sees the return of fine and very warm, perhaps even quite hot conditions, although there will be a few showers or thunderstorms about too in places on some days especially towards the end of the week. Sunday, and the west is in cooler air while the warm, thundery air is never far from the Midlands. Sunny intervals today, so warming up nicely, some heavy showers and thunderstorms scattered about this afternoon, localised and mostly only affecting to the east of Birmingham, but again, locally will cause flooding. For West Wales (WW) we should escape with a largely dry day, just the slim chance of a shower here. Highs on Sunday 21 to 24c, so rather warm, but fresher feeling than of late, except over the East Midlands where it is still quite humid.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Monday sees a ridge of high pressure building in from the SW, so a mainly dry day, just the outside chance of a light shower. Sunny spells and maxima a warm 22 to 25c, cooler for many coasts where nearer 20c. A dry night with clear spells and lows between 9 and 13c so comfortable. High pressure over Scandinavia from Tuesday with a feed of very warm easterly winds from Europe. Relatively high pressure over the UK again on Tuesday itself, although a weak front bringing areas of cloud and a few afternoon showers to the Midlands in particular, for most places another dry warm day though, highs widely 23 to 26c even along Cardigan Bay, the NE breeze more noticeable over the East Midlands. Wednesday is similarly fine day with further spells of sunshine, sunny even for the west. A very warm day, maxima pushing 80f reaching 25 to 27c, perhaps West Wales warmest due to the easterly breeze and hence the air has travelled furthest over land to reach here. Just the odd shower or thunderstorm being set off by the heat later in the afternoon or during the evening over the Welsh hills. A mild largely dry night follows, lows mostly 12 to 15c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The very warm Continental ENE flow continues for Thursday and Friday too, further generally dry days with sunny periods and highs in the 24 to 28c range, some coasts pleasantly cooler with sea breezes. Dry for the most part, but with a scattering of sharp showers or thunderstorms getting going for the afternoons and evenings. A greater chance of seeing a thunderstorm on Thursday or Friday it has to be said, even the hint of a thundery plume showing on some models come Friday. Naturally model differences for as far in the future as next weekend, some showing a continuation of the mostly dry and very warm weather (ECM) whilst others eventually turn it cooler and more unsettled (GFS). However Saturday at least should see a continuation of the very warm weather with scattered thundery showers.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=219599:PPVG89 (1) m dry warm MO.png][attachment=219600:PPVJ89 m dry warm poss sh Mids TU.png][attachment=219601:ecmt850.072 VW m dry TU WE.png][attachment=219602:PPVL89 dry VW WE.png][attachment=219603:PPVO89 VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219604:h850t850eu VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219605:ecmt850.144 some storms TH FR.png][attachment=219606:h850t850eu heat thunder chances FR.png][attachment=219607:ecmt850.168 m dry VW weekend.png][attachment=219608:h850t850eu warm more unsettled weekend.png][attachment=219609:prmslWarwickshire fine toi mid week then thundery chances.png][attachment=219610:t850Warwickshire warm to hot week.png][attachment=219611:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  4. TonyH
    [size=4][font=arial][b][b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells, becoming very warm but local thunderstorms; cooler unsettled weekend[/b] [/b][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][color=rgb(0,0,0)]Although there were some showers last week, overall it was another reasonably dry week. Tuesday saw fairly widespread showers, but even then some areas missed them completely, not so the Aldridge area of the West Midlands where there torrential thunderstorms caused quite serious but highly localised flooding. Temperatures close to average although rather cool at times early last week with the NW breeze. The East Midlands narrowly escaped a soaking on Thursday, with the nearby Fenlands having a cool wet day, while places such as Leicester and Nottingham just 40 miles west had a warm sunny one! Highs on a generally warm Thursday then included 24.7c at Pershore, 24.3c Church Lawford and 22.5c Mumbles. Saturday was the warmest day of the year so far over much of the Midlands, with maxima between 24 and 26c, West Wales in contrast was cloudy and drizzly with temperatures below 20c. Noticeably milder by night this weekend, it has not dropped below 12c in most places, and last night some spots stayed above 15c.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]It has cooled off for today Sunday, but the warmth is set to return this week, especially over the Midlands where 27c 81f is likely come Thursday, but we get some thunderstorms in places before it cools off in time for the weekend. Sunday afternoon and a scattering of showers over the Midlands, but mostly dry for West Wales with sunny intervals. Highs between 18 and 21c. Dry and fresher tonight minima around 10c. A transient ridge of high pressure moves away during Monday with weak fronts moving into Wales, this means a largely dry day with sunny intervals for the Midlands and maxima around 22c, so quite warm here, but after a bright start clouding over for West Wales (WW) even with a little rain or drizzle about during the late afternoon and evening, highs nearer 19 or 20c here. High pressure building to our south on Tuesday but still some weak weather fronts to contend with. Variable cloud as a consequence of these fronts and perhaps the odd spot of rain or even shower popping off, but with sunny breaks developing as we go through the day. Temperatures a rather humid 21 or 22c, even a 24c where decent sunny spells occur. A mild night to follow, no lower than 13c. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]A decent ridge of high pressure over southern Britain on Wednesday which is another largely dry day, more in the way of sunshine too, so a warm day everywhere, highs between 22 and 25c, best for the Midlands, and cooler along some coasts with sea breezes. Thursday could be the warmest day of the week with a drag of very warm, humid air from off the Continent. Plenty of sunshine and temperatures responding well with the ambient heat, so maxima in the 24 to 28c range, hottest over the Midlands. Some sharp showers and localised thunderstorms breaking out later in the day and especially for the evening as a heat low approaches from Spain or France. Some of us seeing flashes of lightning or catching a storm then during Thursday night, along with some very heavy bursts of rain. Quite a sticky night too, no lower than 15c for towns, cities and some coasts. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]The storms may not have succeeded in clearing the air though as it looks like another warm or very warm day on Friday. There will be sunny spells and some further showers and thunderstorms, but some places escape dry as is typical in showery set ups. Highs somewhere between 22 and 27c on Friday. It does though cool down by Saturday and the weekend looks quite unsettled with low pressure close by our NW, so cooler and breezy with showers and some longer spells of rain. Still rather warm for the Midlands perhaps next Saturday but rather cool everywhere by Sunday highs of 18 to 21c. Looking further out and the rest of July appears somewhat unsettled too but warm at times, so not so bad![/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218551:PPVG89 dry warm Mids drizzle pm WW MON.png][attachment=218552:PPVJ89 m dry sunny ints TU r warm.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218553:ecmt850.072 H builds over S TU.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218554:PPVL89 m dry warm WE.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218555:ecmt850.096 m dry warm We.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218556:PPVO89 very warm TH.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218561:ukmaxtemp very warm or hot TH.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218557:ecmt850.120 hot humid thundery showers later TH to FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218558:ecmt850.144 warm showery FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218559:h850t850eu warm showery FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218560:ecmt850.168 weekend cooler showers lsr.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218562:prcpWarwickshire unsettled FR SA.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218563:prmslWarwickshire more unsettled by next weekend.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218564:t850West~Midlands mostly a warm week.png][attachment=218565:mgram_Birmingham.png][/color][/color][/font][/size]
  5. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Sunny spells and a few showers; wet in places Thursday; warm with thundery shower potential next weekend[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][color=rgb(0,0,0)]June 2014 was a rather warm month with variable but generally below average rainfall, just a few spots in the Midlands being wetter than normal due to localised downpours[/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)] [/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)]towards the end of the month. Some monthly totals:[/color][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][color=rgb(0,0,0)]Long Lawford, Warwickshire 78.1mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Church Lawford, Warwickshire 67.0mm [/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Bablake School, Coventry 48mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Llanwnnen, Ceredigion 58.5mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Trawsgoed, Ceredigion 54.8mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Pembrey Sands, Carmarthenshire 39.6mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Llanelli, Carmarthenshire 34.8mm[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Some reasonably warm weather last week with sunny spells, nothing spectacular again temperature-wise, highest readings being 24.8c Llanwnnen and 24.2c Porthmadog on Tuesday, 23.9c at Wellesbourne and 23.8c Church Lawford, both Warwickshire on Thursday. Thursday was rather cloudy and drizzly over West Wales while the Midlands had another warm day with sunny intervals. On Friday it was wet across Wales, but still mostly dry and warm for the Midlands, while it reached 29c in SE England, the hottest of the Summer to date. It has not been a bad weekend with only a few showers about. Sunday night was very cool over parts of Wales, here it fell to 3.2c, one of the coolest July nights I have recorded.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Another week with a fair bit of generally dry and rather warm weather although there will be some rain or showers about too, the warmest weather may coincide with next weekend. Sunny spells and a few scattered showers on Sunday afternoon, if you do catch one it could be very heavy with a clap of thunder. Highs of 19 to 21c, close to the early July average. Another cool night with clear periods, some rural spots getting down to around 5c. A few showers continuing for western coasts. A shallow low is centred close to Scotland early this week, so the overall showery theme continues, however many of us escaping with very few showers and some stay completely dry, but where they occur they give heavy downpours with the chance of thunder. Decent sunny spells between any showers and so feeling quite warm in these with temperatures up to 19 to 21c again and only light winds. Another largely clear and cool night to follow, most places getting below 10c. High pressure attempts to ridge in from the SW during Tuesday but may not prevent some more showers from developing, there will be further pleasant sunny intervals, maxima 18 to 21c, so not bad with many places having an essentially dry day bar the odd shower. We are in a kind of weather 'No Man's Land' mid week as the UK sits between various weather fronts and ridges of high pressure. Sunny intervals and generally dry again on Wednesday, just the outside chance of a shower, and familiar temperatures of 18 to 21c, although we may notice the northerly breeze freshening through the day. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]A pincer movement of fronts gradually advancing from both west and east during Thursday, but as these are moving into relatively higher pressure over us, the energy tends to get squeezed out. However still enough frontal energy extant to produce some localised areas of rain or showers, these perhaps thundery, and no doubt some areas see more in the way cloud on Thursday. Variable temperatures due to the patchy nature of the cloud, rain/ showers on Thursday, a warm 23c where sunny breaks occur, but a cool 17c where wet, difficult to specify who gets what though! To hazard a guess would be a scenario in which rain or showers affect the East Midlands Thursday afternoon with West Wales more likely to have a fine and warm day...[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Our weather remains in an indecisive vein for the end of the week and indeed next weekend, the only certainty seems that we are in a warmer air mass by then. For Friday and the weekend then, the stab is for warm and quite sticky weather, oft-times dry but with the threat of some thundery showers. Maxima in the 21 to 26c range, with sticky night for coasts, towns and cities where it may not fall lower than 15c. [/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][attachment=218081:PPVG89 scattered showers MO.png][attachment=218079:ecmt850.048 rather unsettled MO TU.png][attachment=218082:h850t850eu few showers near ave.png][attachment=218083:PPVL89 NML m dry.png][attachment=218084:h850t850eu rain threat form E TH.png][attachment=218080:ecmt850.120 NML Thu squeezed out fronts.png][attachment=218085:ecmt850.168 warm weekend threat of thundery showers times.png][attachment=218086:h850t850eu warm sultry weekend some thundery showers.png][attachment=218087:prcpWest~Midlands greater rain threat weekend.png][attachment=218088:prmslWest~Midlands indifferent pressures.png][attachment=218089:t850West~Midlands warmer mass from FR.png][attachment=218090:mgram_Birmingham.png][/color][/font]
  6. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells, very warm even by Thursday/ Friday; unsettled and cooler weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Plenty of rather warm, dry and bright weather last week, although it turned more unsettled during Thursday with the first real rain for a fortnight or so for many places. 23.4c Llanwnnen on Wednesday made it the warmest day so far this year. Other high readings include 24.7c Hereford, 24.1c Church Lawford, 23.7c Little Rissington, 24.4c Mumbles and 23.5c Pembrey Sands all on Monday, these although warm are unremarkable readings for Summer. Heavy showers for most on Friday and thunderstorms for some, these gave over an inch of rain to parts of the Midlands, the highest total being 28.2mm at Market Bosworth, Leicestershire, with Long Lawford, Warwickshire having 35.4mm in the 36 hours to Saturday morning. This enough to turn what was looking like quite a dry June into a wet one, West Wales has still managed a reasonably dry month however. Some more localised downpours in places on Saturday, Swyddffynnon, Ceredigion caught 28.4mm while places just a few miles away saw very little rain. Saturday was a cool day for the Midlands, Coleshill and Coventry only managed 16c due to persistent cloud.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some dry and warm weather for much of the coming week again, very warm even later in the week with the Summer's first 80f possible by Friday for the Midlands! Signals of a more unsetttled and cooler weekend however. Sunday afternoon is largely dry with sunny spells, just a scattering of showers over the Midlands, temperatures reaching a pleasant 19 to 21c. Clear periods and a cool night, some rural spots down to 5c or so, but nearer 10c for coasts and cities. Although a low system is passing to our SW during Monday the rain should avoid us only really making it into Cornwall and Devon. Another mostly dry and bright day with sunny spells, again a few showers developing but most places remain essentially dry. Highs 19 to 22c about average for the last day of June. Slack pressure on Tuesday and again largely dry with spells of warm sunshine and light winds, the odd sharp shower for a few spots. Highs on Tuesday 20 to 23c. Dry with decent sunny spells again for Wednesday with a ridge over southern UK and probably a touch warmer, highs 22 to 25c quite likely, so a warm day. As with previous nights it cools pleasantly down to minima of 8 to 12c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A deep low is situated near Iceland on Thursday but with high pressure still close to our SW it looks largely dry and warm again with sunny periods. This could be the warmest day of the week, indeed the year so far, highs for most in the 23 to 26c range, cooler for western coasts. The dry and warm, even very warm weather may hold on for Friday too, GFS showing 28c maxima over the Midlands but it may not end up quite so hot and with a westerly drift of air Cardigan Bay pleasantly cooler. Mostly dry but the warmth setting off a scattering of heavy showers or thunderstorms, particularly for the Midlands. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A trough looks set to spoil next weekend somewhat although to what extent the weather deteriorates is questionnable. However a fall in pressure is likely by Saturday and weather fronts look set to bring spells of rain to be followed by showers for Sunday when it will be noticeably cooler. Not all models show an especially poor weekend though and some recent GFS model runs keep it quite warm and with not so much in the way of rain.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217594:PPVG89 m dry ss.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217595:PPVJ89 m dry RW Tu.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217596:ecmt850.072 m dry RW TU WE.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217597:h850t850eu warm ss WE.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217598:PPVO89 dry warm TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217599:h850t850eu warm dry TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217600:ecmt850.144 TH FR m dry v warm potential.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217601:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217602:h850t850eu cooling weekend but little rain.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217603:prcpWarwickshire m dry week until weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217604:t850Warwickshire warm week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217605:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color][/font][/color]
  7. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and rather warm with sunny spells; more unsettled with showers in places from Thursday/ Friday[/b]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]We saw some warm and reasonably sunny weather at times last week, although sometimes it was cloudier and cooler, especially for the Midlands early in the week. HIghest temperatures over the past week include 22.4c Trawsgoed on Tuesday, 24.3c Pembrey Sands, 22.8c Llanwnnen and 22.6c Coventry on Wednesday, then Hereford 23.7c, Church Lawford 22.9c, Mumbles 22c on Friday - all well into the warm category for June. Virtually a bone dry week too, just a little drizzle in places on a few days, but many places having no measurable rain. Cool nights though this weekend, quite close to a grass frost for prone Welsh spots, the low at dawn today just 3.5c at 4 feet above the lawn here and 4.2c at Trawscoed, only Cairngorm colder than Llanwnnen last night![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]More fine and warm weather this week too, so June is turning out a lovely Summer month for a change! It may be turning somewhat cooler and more unsettled later in the week, although this breakdown not definite as yet. Sunday, and the chilly night a distant memory this morning as the mercury rockets, plenty of sunshine today with highs between 21 and 24c widely, coasts pleasantly cooler with sea breezes, 18 or 19c here. Patchy cloud for the Midlands in particular this afternoon, a light shower just about possible over the East Midlands. Another cool, clear night, again inland Wales and the Marches down to between 4 and 7c, more like 10c though for cities due to UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect. A similar Summery picture for Monday too with high pressure close to Ireland, warm with sunny spells, Cumulus clouds building afternoon threatening the odd shower, especially over the Midlands, but 90% of us remain dry again. Highs mostly in the 21 to 24c range, cooler for some coasts. Light winds, another clear coolish night to follow, lows below 9c in the countryside. Tuesday may be a touch cooler and fresher, patchy cloud but sunny spells especially for West Wales (WW). Largely dry, but a few light showers affecting the Midlands, maxima 18 to 21c, quite a brisk NE breeze for the East Midlands later. A decidedly cool night follows, close to a grass frost for prone spots of the Marches and West Midlands with lows of 3c possible locally, but much milder for coasts and cities, above 10c at Llanelli for instance. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Increasingly messy weather charts from Wednesday as we lose the high pressure but neither does the barometer sink so low. No real weather fonts to contend with for southern Britain so another rather warm and mostly dry day, highs likely in the 20 to 23c range, perhaps WW doing best on Wednesday. Sunny spells but with some areas of cloud rendering some of us a cloudier day. Pressure leaking away more decisively later in the week as it looks like becoming more unsettled. A shallow low close to Ireland on Thursday threatens some showery rain in places, although some of us escape with another dry day, WW most likely to see a few showers on Thursday. Still rather warm for the Midlands with sunny spells and highs of 22c but with more cloud and showers about WW cooler at 18c or so. Friday has the low over England so more showery rain in places, perhaps heavy in places, but again some areas escape with very little. Rather warm (22c) should the sun appear, but conversely rather cool where the cloud and showers persist (18c). [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend is uncertain, perhaps somewhat unsettled but with relatively high pressure still close to our SW, so no washout and it may not end up such a bad weekend. Best stab then, plenty of dry weather with some sunshine, but not clear blue skies, showers or rain for some places but not everywhere, hit and miss stuff. Temperatures near average, maxima in the 18 to 22c range. The jury is out regards what July has in store![/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=216928:PPVG89 (1) warm ss poss shower Mids pm.png][attachment=216929:ecmt850.072 m dry touch cooler TUe.png][attachment=216930:h850t850eu cooler m dry Tue.png][attachment=216931:PPVL89 dry warm Wed.png][attachment=216932:ecmt850.120 sh L Ire some showers pm.png][attachment=216933:PPVO89 showery rain threat Th.png][attachment=216934:ecmt850.144 unsettled FR r cool.png][attachment=216935:ecmt850.168 some showers WEND.png][attachment=216936:h850t850eu some showers ave temps WEND.png][attachment=216937:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion showers from TH.png][attachment=216938:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion fine warm early more unsettled later.png][attachment=216939:t850Worcestershire ave to warm uppers.png][attachment=216940:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  8. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry bar the odd shower; sunny spells, rather warm to Thursday then cooler[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A showery start to last week, the West Midlands in particular getting some thunderstorms on Monday with a few more on Tuesday. Generally dry though since Wednesday, and some warm and sunny weather on Thursday and Friday, although a few places caught a shower later Friday. Highest temperatures last week were 23 to 25c over the West Midlands, and 20 to 22c over West Wales (WW) on Friday. Saturday was particularly warm at Pembrey, Carmarthenshire where the temperature reached over 23c. A few parts of the Midlands caught showers on Saturday too, but it was a generally dry day.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Plenty more dry and reasonably warm weather in the week ahead too, variable cloud but with decent sunny spells at times, especially over WW. Cooler for Friday and the weekend, but still a mainly dry and bright picture. Sunday a pleasant day, rather cloudy at times, especially the Midlands but with some sunny spells, Pembrokeshire faring well. Fairly warm highs between 19 and 21c. Just the chance of a shower for a few spots. Mostly dry and quite mild tonight. On Monday high pressure remains close to NW UK with a fairly gentle NE flow over us. The Midlands may be troubled by areas of cloud coming from off the North Sea at times, but there should be some sunny intervals, while WW sees decent sunny spells and has a warm day. Highs around 18c for the cloudier East Midlands and 22c for parts of sunnier WW. It should stay dry everywhere on Monday. Very similar weather on Tuesday too, dry, some sunshine especially for WW, where it will be warmest, highs ranging from 19c East Midlands to 22 or 23c WW. Quite a fresh NE breeze for the East Midlands. More of the same on Wednesday as well, dry and warm with sunny spells, best for the West Midlands and WW, areas of cloud coming into the East Midlands from the North Sea at times. Temperatures reaching 19 to 21c for the Midlands and 22 or 23c for WW. Just the chance of an isolated afternoon or evening shower, but 90% of us stay dry again. Nights through this early part of the week reasonably mild with minima largely in the 8 to 12c bracket.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]High pressure still close by to the west of Ireland on Thursday, so a generally dry picture once more. Sunny spells and rather warm for most areas, highs 20 to 23c, although it may turn cooler later in the day as a weak cold front moves down from the north, this feature also may set off a few showers afternoon and evening. Perhaps a cooler, fresher night to follow with clear spells. HIgh pressure still quite close by to the west for Friday and probably next weekend too. So the generally dry theme set to continue bar the odd shower or two, these more especially affecting the East Midlands. Cooler on Friday highs in the 17 to 20c range and something of a northerly breeze, especially over the Midlands. Sunny spells for most. Mostly dry and bright then next weekend with temperatures near or a little below the late June average (which is 18 to 20c). The potential in what will be quite a cool air mass of some chilly nights, GFS model shows a local ground frost for Saturday night giving lows of an unlikely 1c over the Welsh Marches![/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=216356:PPVG89 m dry some sun Mo.png][attachment=216357:ecmt850.048 dry SS MO Tu warm W.png][attachment=216358:PPVL89 SS warm in W.png][attachment=216359:h850t850eu SS r warm Tu.png][attachment=216360:PPVO89 m dry r warm again Th.png][attachment=216361:ecmt850.120 warm SS Th.png][attachment=216362:metslp.120 cooling late Th.png][attachment=216363:ecmt850.168 cooler m dry WEND few showers Mids.png][attachment=216364:ukmintemp local GF Sat night.png][attachment=216365:prcpWarwickshire m dry week odd shower.png][attachment=216366:prmslWarwickshire H all week m dry.png][attachment=216367:t850Warwickshire warm to TH then r cool.png][attachment=216368:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  9. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Showery at first; mostly dry and sometimes warm from Wednesday[/b]

    Only small amounts of rain early last week but then Wednesday was a washout for many places. Llanwwnen getting 24mm and Church Lawford 22mm in 24 hours, while some parts saw closer to 2 inches (50mm). Wednesday also a very cool day, parts of Wales remained below 10c all day, quite unusual this for June, the high here being 11.7c when it brightened during the evening, still the coolest June day for a number of years. Things brightened considerably on Thursday, and warmed up on Friday, 22.7c the max here at Llanwnnen and even 21.8c on the coast at Aberporth, similarly warm for the Midlands too. Thunderstorms were fairly widespread early Saturday morning, particularly for Mid Wales and the West Midlands with heavy downpours too. Lightning as close as a mile with loud thunder here just before 0600. There a few further storms later on Saturday, especially over the West Midlands. Friday night was the warmest of the nascent Summer to date getting no lower than 13c here.

    Quite a fine, reasonably Summery week in prospect, plenty of dry and at times bright weather and often fairly warm too, after that is, some rain or showers still until Tuesday. Sunday is a fairly dry and quite warm but breezy day, the Midlands getting into the low 70's F ( 21c or 22c) and close on 20c for inland West Wales (WW). A few sharp showers about, especially for Wales, but essentially dry over the Midlands this afternoon. Largely dry tonight too bar the odd Welsh shower. Perhaps more in the way of showers on Monday with the chance of thunder especially around midday, tending to become drier with sunny spells through later in the afternoon. Quite warm again, highs around 19c for WW and 22c for the East Midlands. Low pressure to our west then edges closer to Ireland during Monday night so further showers and longer spells of rain arrive in the early hours of Tuesday. Unsettled on Tuesday with the low crossing NW UK, showery, some heavy and thundery downpours about, highs down at 16 to 19c with a brisk SW wind. The SE Midlands (Northants/ Oxon) perhaps faring better on Tuesday with only a few showers, by virtue of being closer to high pressure over France.

    High pressure then builds over southern Britain on Wednesday, so a dry, fine day with lighter winds. Not necessarily a sunny day though as there could well be stubborn layers of cloud much of the afternoon and just sunny intervals from time to time. Temperatures close to the June average at 19 to 21c, cooler on the coast though with the onshore breezes. A ridge of high pressure persists across SE UK on Thursday but with some weak Atlantic fronts affecting northern and western parts. Dry with some sunny spells for most places, especially the Midlands where it will reach a warm 22 or 23c, but there may be more in the way of cloud for WW afternoon even with a little rain or drizzle for hills and coasts. 18c on WW coasts, 20c inland WW the expected highs on Thursday. High pressure pulls more to the SW of Ireland on Friday, allowing a cooler NW feed of air. Still a largely dry and quite warm day though for the Midlands with sunny spells and maxima around 21c, although we may feel the effects of the NW breeze over WW restricting highs to below 18c here and bringing cloudier skies. The outside chance of a light shower for few places otherwise dry on Friday.

    Most models keep relatively high pressure over the UK next weekend too, although with differences relating to intensity, positioning, etc. Suffice to say a lot of dry weather still and temperatures look close to average.with maxima say in the 18 to 22c range, we may be seeing something of a NE breeze however, which would tend to render the East Midlands coolest and WW warmest.
    [attachment=215638:PPVG89 (1) showery r warm Mo.png][attachment=215639:ecmt850.048 some showers Mo.png][attachment=215641:ecmt850.072 showers lsr cooler r windy Tu.png][attachment=215641:ecmt850.072 showers lsr cooler r windy Tu.png][attachment=215642:PPVL89 dry r warm Wed.png][attachment=215643:ecmt850.096 dry rw We.png][attachment=215644:PPVO89 m dry warm Th dr poss WW pm.png][attachment=215645:ecmt850.120 fine warm Th.png][attachment=215646:ecmt850.144 cooling m dry FR.png][attachment=215647:h850t850eu HSW cooler WW m dry Fr.png][attachment=215648:ecmt850.168 m dry weekend.png][attachment=215651:h850t850eu m dry weekend.png][attachment=215652:prcpWarwickshire m dry from WE.png][attachment=215653:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  10. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Showers and longer spells of rain, dry interludes; cool mid week, potential warm, thundery plume Friday/ Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The Midlands had a very dull and often cool week, with the East Midlands particularly wet early in the week, many places getting over 25mm in the 3 days to Wednesday. Church Lawford, for example, was very cool on both Tuesday and Wednesday, only reaching 12c, some 5c below average for the end of May. West Wales escaped most the rain last week, with some dry, bright weather at times. West Wales was rather warm and bright on Friday and Saturday, 21c here on Friday.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]May 2014 was a wet but mild month, West Wales in particular was also dull. A somewhat unusual month in that much of the Midlands was wetter than much of West Wales! Some monthly rainfall totals:[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 103.2mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Trawscoed 91.6mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Aberporth 66.4mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanelli 74.4mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry 107.2mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Church Lawford, Rugby 82mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coleshill 91.8mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Little Rissingtom 90mm[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Spring 2014 was very mild, this due, a large extent, to the lack of cold weather rather than prolonged very warm spells! Rainfall has been close to or a little above average for most parts this Spring.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]In spite of a fairly pleasant weekend things going downhill again during the coming week which will be unsettled with more rain and showers at times and with limited sunshine once more. Things could turn warm and thundery later in the week although this warmth may be restricted to the Midlands. Sunday is fine and warm for the Midlands, highs around 21c, but more cloudy and breezy for West Wales (WW) and 18c the best to hope for, although the sun may break through for brief intervals. Patchy rain arrives for Pembrokeshire eventually this afternoon moving across the rest of WW by evening, most of it quite light, but a rather damp end to the day in places. Rain at times for WW tonight (Sunday) with some of this affecting the Midlands too by dawn Monday. Several weather fronts slowly make their way across the UK during Monday so a rather cloudy day with rain at times, much of it only quite light, and a few brighter intervals. Highs Monday 17 or 18c for WW and 19 or 20c Midlands, these close to the early June average. Becoming generally dry overnight. Low pressure quite close to the NW on Tuesday, another unsettled day with showers and some longer spells of rain about, some sunny intervals, but some areas, and Pembrokeshire perhaps more likely, escaping with a mainly dry bright day. Cooler on Tuesday highs 15 to 18c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Unusually, some rather wide differences in model output appearing as early as Wednesday this week, some charts showing low pressure over the UK giving further showers and rain in places, while others build a ridge during the afternoon which would kill the showers and give sunny intervals. Either way Wednesday is a cool day highs somewhere in the 13 to 18c range, coolest for NW Wales. I tend to go for quite a showery, cool Wednesday, heavy showers in places. There does seem to be some concensus for a slow moving low pressure complex to be deepening to the west and then SW of Ireland from Thursday on into the weekend. Suggestions again though of relatively high pressure close to England on Thursday, so another difficult day to call weatherwise. Literally it could end up cool and wet, or dry and feel quite warm! However, suffice to say WW more prone to rain at some stage on Thursday while the Midlands MAY get a largely dry day.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Paradoxically the picture for Friday and Saturday seems more predictable than does Thursday! A deep low is situated SW of Ireland with a warmer SE feed of air arriving across Britain. A plume of very warm air may well reach us during Friday and for Saturday, but with this some heavy, and perhaps, thundery rain in places. WW probably not benefitting greatly from this upper atmosphere plume though with some very wet weather in prospect and this pinning temperatures to below 18c, while the East Midlands could see 22c on Friday given some sunny intervals. Saturday too sees potentially very warm, thundery weather over the Midlands in particular, in any sunny intervals between the downpours 25c could be achieved. WW on Saturday perhaps hindered by cloud and more general rain and so temperatures likely to be inhibited to 18c or so, and it could end up thoroughly cool and wet here! Likely to cool down everywhere by Sunday with further showers or longer spells of rain coming through.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=214580:PPVG89 some rain times Mo.png][attachment=214581:PPVJ89 showery rain cooler Tu.png][attachment=214584:PPVL89 showery Wed.png][attachment=214577:ecmt850.096 drying Wed.png][attachment=214584:PPVL89 showery Wed.png][attachment=214585:PPVO89 showers lsr windy Th.png][attachment=214587:metslp.96 showery L Th.png][attachment=214588:ecmt850.120 m dry warmer TH.png][attachment=214589:ecmt850.120 rain WW m dry Mids TH.png][attachment=214590:ecmt850.144 windy thundery rain plume later FR.png][attachment=214591:h850t850eu wet WW plume later FR.png][attachment=214595:ecmt850.168 weekend plume exits unsettled r windy.png][attachment=214596:h850t850eu thundery plume Sat.png][attachment=214592:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=214593:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire rain times esp FR SA.png][attachment=214594:prmslWarwickshire unsettled drier mid week.png][attachment=214597:t850Warwickshire cool mid week warm FR SA.png][/font][/color]
  11. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled, rain at times, potentially wet weather Midlands; perhaps improving later in the week[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Spectacular storms over much of Mid and North Wales last Monday, some fantastic lightning shows, especially for Aberystwyth northwards where there were multiple storms from dawn until the early hours of Tuesday! The lightning was notable for being visible over great distances, I saw bright lightning on Monday night coming from storms around 40 miles away in the Newtown area of Powys, also the thunder was audible over much greater distance than is typical, I counted one strike at almost one and half minutes to the rumble of its thunder, some 18 miles away! Thunder is usually only audible to about 12 miles maximum (you can work it out by counting the seconds following the lightning, 5 seconds being approximately one mile away). Some places caught over an inch of rain with localised flooding and there was hail. Meanwhile the Midlands had a very warm, quite sunny Monday, with highs of 24 or 25c for many, Pershore tops at 26c. It was warm for Wales too before the showers and storms arrived. Tuesday and Wednesday saw a few showers but many escaped largely dry, and Wednesday was rather warm with plenty of sunshine. Very wet Wednesday night over the Midlands Coventry and Rugby getting 17mm. The remainder of the week has seen further rain and showers and disappointing temperatures. Saturday was a washout for much of West Wales, 18mm at Llanwnnen, while many parts of the Midlands had thunder late afternoon or evening. Pershore. Worcestershire one of the wettest spots in the UK on Saturday with over an inch of rain (26mm) while Bablake School, Coventry has had 49mm since Wednesday, almost a month's worth. Most places will end up with a thoroughly wet May with more rain to come in the final week, the Midlands likely to see the wettest of the weather while WW may not far too badly escaping the worst of it. Some hope of drier, warmer weather after Thursday. The heat in May has been focused over Russia where it has exceeded 35c, no heat on the way for our part of the world just yet![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Welcome brightness over the Midlands this Sunday morning, but West Wales (WW) is overcast with showers about. Some heavy showers across Wales then this afternoon, only a few spots missing them, better chance of a dry afternoon for the Midlands, showers only likely over the West Midlands. Highs a rather cool 14c to 16c, coolest for WW. An iffy Bank Holiday Monday, some us escaping with a largely dry day with sunny intervals, while others get some rain or showers, chiefly after midday. The low pressure that has dominated our weather over recent days has filled up by Monday only to be replaced by another low edging in from the near Continent. A finger of rain may develop over the Midlands through Monday afternoon, so locally quite a wet day here. In contrast much of WW not having a bad day at all with highs around 17c, compared with just 13c where wet over the Midlands. Light winds on Monday. Further rain in places overnight for the Midlands, mostly dry for WW. Further showers or longer spells of rain about on Tuesday, the North Midlands potentially in for a soaking, the rain more showery with dry spells elsewhere, sunshine probably limited. Near normal temperatures for SW Wales around 16c maxima, but a very cool 12c where wettest over the Midlands, where a stiff north wind develops afternoon. Some coastal parts of WW may end up with a dry day again. Wednesday too looking decidely unsettled with low pressure still close to Eastern England. Very difficult to pinpoint where will get the rain and where will escape other than to say that once more parts of the Midlands could get another soaking, while parts of SW Wales and particularly Pembrokeshire get another mosly dry day. Another day where raininess dictates temperatures, a very cool 13c over the North Midlands and perhaps Snowdonia on Wednesday afternoon, compared with a pleasant 17c over South Wales and the South Midlands where it looks somewhat drier with sunny intervals. Winds should be lighter again by mid week. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure is on the rise from Thursday but not to especially high levels, so not enough perhaps then to dry it out completely! Still some kind of trough or shallow low feature over us even on Thursday in an ill-defined pattern, so some further showery rain in places, again some fortunate areas largely escape. HIghs ranging from a cool 14c for the NE Midlands where the east breeze is most pronounced to a reasonably warm 18c even 19c further SW and where some brightness will be found. As usual model differences abound come the end of the week making it harder to decipher just what weather we will get! GFS gives high pressure of around 1023mbar and a drier picture for Friday and Saturday, just a few showers about,and warm temperatures getting above 20c for many. ECM though less convincing, lowish pressure still and an unsettled look to its charts which would bring showery rain, even some thunderstorms over next weekend. GFS too sees the weather deteriorate by Sunday as pressure falls away. So nothing terribly Summery in prospect as we start June..bear in mind though that it snowed in early June 1975 and that turned out a very warm Summer![/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=214106:PPVG89 drier WW rain locally Mids MOn.png][attachment=214107:PPVJ89 showers lsr Tu.png][attachment=214108:ecmt850.072 rain in places r windy Tu.png][attachment=214109:PPVL89 rain threat EM m dry WW Wed.png][attachment=214110:ecmt850.096 unsettles wet in places Wed.png][attachment=214111:h850t850eu cool wet potential Mids Tu.png][attachment=214114:PPVO89 rain in places again TH.png][attachment=214111:h850t850eu cool wet potential Mids Tu.png][attachment=214115:ecmt850.144 q unsettled FR warmer.png][attachment=214116:h850t850eu m dry r warm FR.png][attachment=214117:ecmt850.168 unsettled showery weekend.png][attachment=214118:prcpWest~Midlands rain times all week.png][attachment=214119:prmslWest~Midlands unsettled H Fr Sa when warm.png][attachment=214120:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  12. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Unsettled, showery rain at times; warm to average temperatures[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Last week was mostly dry at least after the showers early in the week. Most places warmed up mid week, with some quite high temperatures for May. The past 3 days all exceeded 21c here at Llanwnnen, while Pershore, Worcestershire was the warmest in the UK on Friday at 23c, and with many parts of the Midlands reached 21c to 23c on Friday and Saturday. However some places also had a barely noticeable ground frost or two during the week, here Saturday it started off at a chilly 2.3c to remind us it is still only Spring! In contrast the past 3 nights in Coventry have not dropped below 9c. Unsettled in the coming week as low pressure takes hold but with respectable temperatures. Not straightforward to detail this week's weather, and especially rainfall distribution, with a static low close to our shores all week, and so quite a bit of variation to be expected between our regions some days, particularly this may be applicable to Thursday.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Warm again on Sunday, clouding over this afternoon for West Wales (WW) while some good sunny spells still for the Midlands if turning more hazy. Quite a windy afternoon for WW, just the chance of a shower by this evening. Highs 20 to 23c inland, best for the Midlands. A diffuse area of low pressure to our west forms a centre close to SW England on Monday. We are still in a warm SE feed of air from off the Continent and for the Midlands it may be another dry and warm day with some sunshine. For Wales though, showery outbreaks of rain on and off through the day, some heavy bursts and the chance of thunder. Some warm sunny intervals also. Parts of the Midlands also catching a sharp shower or two on Monday, but some decent sunny intervals here. Maxima around 19c for WW and 22c for the Midlands and light winds. A very mild night to follow some places not dropping below 12c. The same low still close by our SW on Tuesday, a cold front slowly edging NE with showery rain and perhaps thunder. Locally some spots catching heavy downpours in a short period, but very hit and miss in nature the showers on Tuesday. Still some sunny intervals, but generally a rather cloudy day, quite warm and humid feeling though highs 18 to 21c. The showers clear to a fresher night, although not expecting the ground frost that GFS is showing so expect lows around 5c in the countryside, higher for towns, cities and coasts. Difficulty in detail with this slack lowish pressure set up prevailing, but Wednesday perhaps not a bad day, we may miss the worst of the showers! Sunny intervals, the odd shower if you are unlucky and reasonably warm again, highs 18 to 21c. More in the way of showery rain a possibility for Wednesday evening, with a chance of thunder.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Still a messy picture chart wise for Thursday, although the signals are for it to be the wettest day of the week. Hard to say where the rain band will lie, but for some areas a wet period in prospect on Thursday. Highs just 14c where it rains a lot, and 17c where there are sunny intervals and it is relatively dry, so a cooler day all around. Although pressure is undergoing a rise by next Friday, low pressure is still close enough to the NW for showers and possible longer spells of rain at times. There should be some decent dry, brighter interludes too over the Spring Bank Holiday weekend between the showers, as always in such set ups some areas escape the worst and wonder what all the fuss is about! Temperatures in the region of the seasonal average over the weekend with highs anticipated in the 15 to 20c range.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=213330:PPVG89 showery esp WW warm Mon.png][attachment=213331:ecmt850.072 showery rain warm Tu.png][attachment=213332:PPVJ89 warm showery rain, local downpours Tu.png][attachment=213333:PPVL89 r warm few showers WE.png][attachment=213334:ecmt850.120 wet in places Th.png][attachment=213335:h850t850eu cooler, wet band TH.png][attachment=213336:PPVO89 messy wet in places Th.png][attachment=213337:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend ave temps.png][attachment=213338:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion rain at times.png][attachment=213339:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion pr rise FR.png][attachment=213340:t850Shropshire warmish week ahead.png][attachment=213341:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  13. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Cool and showery at first, becoming mostly dry and warm from Wednesday; more unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    The Midlands saw some rather warm and quite sunny weather up to last Tuesday, in contrast West Wales has been quite dull with just fleeting sunny intervals. May is often the sunniest month of the year here in West Wales. Thus far sunshine figures have been very disappointing, with just 22 hours the estimated figure here at Llanwnnen, not much brighter on the coast either, just 30 hours at Aberporth to date - so a long way to approach the average 218 hours for the mpnth of May. Some rain and showers last week although at least there was plenty of dry weather up to Wednesday. Maximum temperatures were close to the early May average 14 to 16c for much of last week - after the above average start over the Midlands - although it did feel chilly in the wind at times. Nights were quite mild with all the cloud and no frosts occurred. Saturday was a cool, wet and windy day over much of Wales, particularly wet over the hills, Capel Curig the wettest place in Europe with 60.6mm. Winds gusted over 60mph in exposed places yesterday, Mumbles near Swansea recording 63mph.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    Some fine and warm weather on the way eventually in the coming week as high pressure settles over the UK for a while, but a return to cooler unsettled conditions looks probable over next weekend. Mostly cloudy and very cool on Sunday with a brisk west wind bringing showers or longer spells of rain. Parts of West Wales getting some prolonged spells of rain again throughout the day, enough for further localised flooding, Pembrokeshire perhaps escaping the worst of it today. Highs well below average at 11 to 13c. Showers tending to die out this evening except for some coasts and hills. With low pressure to our east the cool unsettled weather continues on Monday, which sees further showers and a possible longer spell of rain, some heavy bursts at times. Some sunny intervals especially Midlands, but few of us escaping the showers, cool maxima 12 to 15c but less windy than was the weekend. Clear spells as showers die out overnight Monday and a local grass frost cannot be ruled out. Still quite a cool NW flow Tuesday with scattered showers, especially over the Midlands where thunder is possible, better dry, brighter spells for West Wales and where some areas stay dry. Temperatures up a bit reaching 14 to 16c so feeling pleasant enough in the sunny breaks. Clearing skies brings the risk of a ground frost on Tuesday night, some spots getting close to 0c.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    Changes during Wednesday as high pressures edges into the SW drying things out. Still a few showers about, but most places having a dry day with some sunny spells, although perhaps a rather cloudy afternoon for West Wales. A warmer day highs 15 to 18c, best for the Midlands. Clear spells overnight again with a grass frost in places although most places stay above 4c. High pressure is over southern Britain on Thursday which looks a lovely warm day with decent sunny spells, perhaps even a sunny day in prospect! Maxima 18 to 20c although cooler around coasts with sea breezes, but only light winds generally. No frost risk for Thursday night in spite of the clear skies lows mostly above 6c. Some differences in the models as to the situation of the high on Friday but another dry, warm day in prospect with decent amounts of sunshine. Dependent on the wind direction where will get the highest temperatures but there is the possibilty of a SE breeze which would mean highs in the 20 to 22c bracket. However should the high pressure pull to our west then cooler breezes would affect West Wales keeping it at 15 to 18c here.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    Next weekend and the fine, warm interlude looks like ending as pressure falls across the UK. A lot of different permutations on offer for next weekends models, we may get another largely dry day on Saturday, with Sunday expected to see some rain and a cool down. Much of the remainder of May then looking quite unsettled but might be on the warm side.[/font][/color]
  14. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled, showers and longer spells of rain most days; average to cool temperatures[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Many areas escaped the worst of the showers ending up with a reasonably dry week past, although on Thursday parts of the Midlands were rather wet, Coventry getting 8mm, but the showers were very hit and miss even then. A mild/ quite warm week too, West Wales saw temperatures reach 18 or 19c early in the week, with similar values then being achieved across the Midlands on Wednesday. Cooler to end the week though, a widespread frost for the Midlands on Friday night, Church Lawford one of the colder spots at -1.6c minimum, but at least a lovely sunny day followed here, whereas West Wales was mostly cloudy on Saturday.

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]April overall was a mild month with variable but generally quite close to average rainfall. The Aberystwyth area has been rather dry though, as indeed was Long Lawford, near Rugby. Some monthly totals:[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Llanwnnen 98.8mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Pembrey Sands 91mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Little Rissington 61.4mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Coventry 48.4mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Hereford 45.2mm[/color][/font]
    [font=Helvetica][color=rgb(0,0,0)]Trawscoed 42mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Church Lawford 39mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Long Lawford 33.2mm[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]It turns much more disturbed this week with mean low pressure centred close to Scotland, with frequent bands of rain or showers crossing the UK, so we will be fortunate to get away with a single completely dry day! At least the spells of rain should not last too long and complete washout days are unlikely. Rather warm in places early in the week, but then often on the cool side, and it will be quite windy at times too. No frost issues this week.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]High pressure over SE England on Sunday so another generally dry, fine day in prospect, although weak fronts are crossing NW Britain and threaten some drizzle at times for NW Wales. Some sunny spells, especially for the Midlands where it is warmest on Sunday highs around 17 possibly 18c, compared with 14 or 15c for West Wales. A mostly dry night with clear spells to follow and no frost. Atlantic fronts queueing up to our west on Monday heralding what will be an unsettled week to come. A dry morning on May Day but any sunshine is soon blotted out over West Wales, while some good sunny spells last well into the afternoon for the Midlands where it will be quite a warm day. Mostly light rain on and off for Wales afternoon, this reaching the Midlands before dusk, but only light and patchy stuff. Highs on Monday ranging from 13c for coastal West Wales to 18c for the East Midlands. The SSW wind freshening during the afternoon. Wales seeing some heavier rain during Monday evening, this clears soon after midnight. An unsettled Tuesday with showers and some longer spells of rain about, but with some areas missing the worst of it. Some sunny intervals but quite a fresh SW breeze and highs close to the early May average at 14 to 16c. Perhaps fewer showers and a better chance of getting a mostly dry day on Wednesday, sunny intervals but quite cool and breezy highs of 12 to 15c, mildest over the Midlands.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Back to rain or showers on Thursday, quite windy and again on the cool side. More of the same for Friday too, showers, even a longer spell of rain should be expected, along with quite strong winds and temperatures average at best so no higher than 16c 61f anywhere. The unsettled and often rather cool theme looks like being maintained through next weekend too, so yet more showers or longer spells of rain and windy at times, not very Springlike! [/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212101:PPVG89 rain pm WW r warm Mids Mon.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212102:PPVJ89 unsettled Tu.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212103:h850t850eu unsettled Tu.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212104:PPVL89 some showers Wed.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212105:h850t850eu showery Wed.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212106:PPVO89 showers lsr TH.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212107:ecmt850.120 showers lsr r windy late week too.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212108:ecmt850.168 unsettled r windy weekend.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212109:prcpWarwickshire some rain most days.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212110:prmslWarwickshire unsettled week.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212111:t850Warwickshire ave to cool week.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=212112:mgram_Birmingham.png][/color][/color][/font]
  15. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Showery but quite warm; cool and mainly dry with frost from Friday[/b][/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    A mild/ quite warm week gone for the most part although with some rain at times. Easter Monday was warm many places reaching 17 to 19c, and 19.9c in my garden although we were not in it! Friday saw variable conitions, much of the Midlands being cool and wet with over an inch of rain for parts of the South and West Midlands, Alvechurch south of Birmingham, receiving 38mm for the day. Some rain also for North Wales on Friday, but much of SW Wales mainly dry and quite mild - although parts of Carmarthenshire had heavy afternoon showers. Frequent heavy showers made for a soggy Saturday afternoon across much of SW Wales, Llanwnnen having 25mm rain in the 24 hours to midnight on Saturday. In contrast a mostly dry and bright Saturday for the Midlands, and Anglesey also did quite well, Mona reaching a pleasant 17c with few showers, Aberystwyth and northern Cardigan Bay too largely escaping.[/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    More unsettled weather this week, further rain or showers at times, but with some warm sunny intervals between, so not a washout, and some areas escaping with a relatively dry week. Then cooler but becoming mostly dry by the weekend, some early May frost to look out for too over the weekend. A filling low is heading into the English Channel during Sunday, sunny intervals only serving to cause convective showers to develop this afternoon, some heavy, perhaps even with a rumble of thunder, as usual some areas missing the showers completely! Sunday highs close to the late April average at 13 to 15c, and much less wind than on Saturday. Most of the showers dying out this evening although Pembrokeshire could see a few through the night, no lower than 4c so no frost concerns. Very slack lowish pressure over the UK on Monday so light winds and where showers occur they will be slow- moving, hence prolonged giving a fair drop of rain locally, again with a chance of thunder for a few of us. Some places miss them however, West Wales perhaps most favoured for a mainly dry, bright day, and just the odd shower, while the Midlands sees more widespread shower activity through afternoon. Highs on Monday 15 to 17c, so given the light winds feeling quite warm in the sunny intervals. Clear spellls overnight Monday so turning chilly but we should just avoid a ground frost, generally remaining above 4c although with some mist and fog patches forming by dawn. A repeat performance on Tuesday of warm sunny intervals but further showers developing by midday, heavy in places, but some places stay dry, Cardigan Bay and Pembrokeshire more favoured to stay dry and bright on Tuesday. Maxima in the 16 to 19c range, pretty warm, only light winds again. A dry fairly mild night to follow. [/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    Weak low pressure just west of Ireland on Wednesday, but little change on the weather, further pleasant sunny spells interspersed by some showers, heavy in places, just the chance of a longer spell of rain in the mix too through the day, but equally some areas escaping and remain mostly dry. Rather warm again, highs 16 to 19c away from Welsh coasts where there will be a cooling breeze. A trough of low pressure sinks down over Wales and Southern England during Thursday which sees further rain or showers about, especially in the morning, and it turns cooler, highs 12 to 14c anticipated. High pressure centred north of Scotland on Friday with cooler NE winds over the UK. Mostly dry and bright with sunny spells though, the odd shower affecting the Midlands but a dry day is expected for West Wales. Chilly breezes and highs only 11 to 13c. Friday night the wind eases and with clearing skies a widespread frost will form, many places down to zero and locally -2c. Rather cool but fine and dry for Saturday too, sunny periods and light winds, highs 12 to 14c so not too bad a day! Another frost may well form on Saturday night too, model discrepancies obviously at this range but with the latest GFS run showing a somewhat unlikely -5c for the Welsh Marches, whereas the ECM model brings in milder Atlantic air and we would largely avoid an air frost - one to be aware of however, with at least the potential for a damaging May frost next weekend. Tentatively, but next Sunday and the May Day Bank Holiday could be fine and dry too![/font]
  16. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica]
    [b]Quite warm and unsettled; rain or showers at times, but dry, bright spells too.[/b][/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    A generally mild and dry week gone, Ceredigion in particular seeing some rather warm conditions of 17c in the first half of the week, although it did turn somewhat cooler from Friday. High sunshine amounts too early in the week especially, Coventry had almost unbroken sunshine from Sunday to Wednesday totalling 43.7 hours for these 4 days while Llanwnnen had an estimated 62 hours over the week.. With clear skies nights were chilly with frosts, many rural areas getting a night or two below zero, Llanwnnen getting down to -2.2c on Friday night, however the cities were milder, the Urban Heat Island of Coventry keeping minima above 1.5c all week. Most places have had a completely dry week, at Llanwnnen there have now been 12 consecutive dry days. [/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    A much more unsettled week to come although still with some rather warm and dry weather at times. A low is moving NW along the English Channel during Sunday bringing wet and windy weather to southern England. Much of Wales and the Midlands may well escape the worst of this rain, but a rather cloudy and quite windy afternoon and evening in prospect, although there may be sunny intervals at first. The rain area to the south then pushes northwards into our regions, most of this should be quite light and patchy before some heavier stuff affects southern parts of Wales and the SW Midlands later this afternoon and evening perhaps with thunder. On the mild side for Sunday maxima between 14 and 16c. Most of the rain dying out after midnight, a mild night lows around 8c. The low is quite close by our SW on Monday so an unsettled day with showery rain breaking out especially afternoon and for the Midlands, SW Wales may escape with little. Some sunny intervals too and with a rather warm ESE flow temperatures reaching 16 to 18c, so not a bad Easter Monday if you avoid the rain! A slack lowish pressure regime for Tuesday so lighter winds but with rain or showers in places once more, but some places staying generally dry. Highs 13c where wet but a mild 17c possible should it brighten. No frost again on Tuesday night as with much of this week.[/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    Atlantic air is attempting to move over the UK mid week associated with low pressure in the mid Atlantic, but with still something of a rather warm Continental feed into the east. Maybe a dry start to Wednesday but showery rain about through the afternoon which does not preclude some warm sunny intervals especially for the Midlands. Highs between 13 and 17c, best most likely for the Midlands. Pressure becoming ill-defined again on Thursday, a slack synoptic pattern so less wind than on Wednesday but with showers, perhaps a longer spell of rain in places, temperatures not bad again reaching 14 to 16c as some sunny intervals should occur. Just the chance of a ground frost Thursday night then speculatively dry and bright on Friday but too far off for sure. Next weekend looks unsettled too with quite a deep low moving towards SW Britain, this would bring showers and longer spells of rain and some strong winds. April looking like finishing on a cool and changeable note.[/font][font=Helvetica]
    [attachment=211195:PPVG89 rain i n places EM.png][attachment=211196:ecmt850.048 slackening Tu.png][attachment=211197:PPVL89 some rain Wed.png][attachment=211198:ecmt850.096 some rain Wed.png][attachment=211199:ecmt850.120 slack mild some showers TH.png][attachment=211200:ecmt850.144 dry poss FRi.png][attachment=211201:ecmt850.168 L SW unsettled weekend.png][attachment=211202:prcpWarwickshire some rain at times.png][attachment=211203:prmslWarwickshire unsettled weeek.png][attachment=211204:t850Warwickshire mostly mild week.png][/font]
  17. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mild and mostly dry with sunny spells; frost and fog patches overnight; turning unsettled next weekend[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Mostly dry with some sunny spells since last Tuesday with temperatures around or a little above the April average (13c) although quite warm at times for the Midlands where Coventry topped 16c (60f) on Wednesday for example. There were a few ground frosts as is typical in April still, down close to zero on both Wednesday and Friday night at this particular cold hollow. With the Bluebells coming out and the Swallows arriving back from Africa plenty more dry and mild weather to come this week too although with some frost and fog by night. Easter weekend.. and things gradually turn more unsettled.

    A ridge of high pressure gives a pleasant rather mild Sunday with sunny spells, although I note some sea fog this morning for Cardigan Bay on [url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html"]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_vis.html[/url] which may persist. Highs 13 to 15c generally but only 11c where sea fog or low cloud persists, quite a NW breeze on Sunday afternoon though. Clear spells tonight with ground frost in places lows 2 to 5c inland. High pressure centred over Ireland on Monday so another rather nice day with sunny spells and maxima 12 to 14c close to average. With clear skies and calm conditions on Monday night a widespread frost develops by midnight and also fog patches, down just below zero in places but milder and frost- free near coasts. The high migrates over the North Sea on Tuesday, more of a SE breeze eventually and warmer highs 14 to 16c, West Wales most favoured. Clear and cold again though for Tuesday night, another widespread frost, a few spots down to -2c perhaps and foggy in places too by dawn. Still a high pressure ridges over from the east on Wednesday so another good day, sunny periods after any fog clears and quite warm highs of 14 to 16c, a few coasts affected by sea mist and cooler however. Frost more restricted on Wednesday night, but still a ground frost locally down to 1c and again mist and fog patches develop.

    Things get more complicated later in the week with various air masses attempting influence over the UK and with implications for the Easter too. Still not a great deal of rain about on the whole, so not too bad an Easter Weekend. On Thursday largely dry again but a weak cold front moving down from the NW seems likely to be bringing more in the way of cloud and a little rain or drizzle in places. It could be that the Midlands remains fine, bright and rather warm on Thursday though. HIghs anywhere between 11 and 15c for West Wales, and 13 to 17c for the Midlands depending on cloud cover. Ground frost risks once more for Thursday night as skies clear. Still a ridge of sorts across Wales and England for Good Friday which looks like a fine, rather warm dry day highs of 18c in places, so well above the April average.

    By the weekend high pressure may have pulled away to Scandinavia with pressure tending to fall gradually across the UK. All highly speculative trying to predict a week in advance but Saturday may well be another generally dry, fine day but with some showers perhaps breaking out in places later on, and another reasonably mild day. More definate low pressure over us by Easter Sunday and Monday although hopefully not a washout! Some areas of rain or showers about then but with sunny intervals between, there may be some thunder in places too. Monday is showing the strongest potential for wet weather but this may alter. Cool where cloudy and wet, mild if the sun appears![/font]
  18. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with some rain at times but largely dry and bright mid week; temperatures around average, ground frost risk[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Very high temperatures last Sunday for March, 18 to 20c reached widely, highest readings 20.7c at Porthmadog and 20.6c here at Llanwnnen. Thunderstorms in places on Monday along with Saharan dust deposits, if you wondered why the car was so dirty! The SE winds also brought high air pollution levels to the Midlands in particular up until Thursday. The very mild weather lasted to Wednesday for many areas, but some coastal areas were cooler, as were parts of the Midlands at times with persistent cloud and haze. Mild again this weekend but with rain at times, especially over Wales, Capel Curig has seen over 40mm in the past 24 hours. Saturday night was very mild no lower than 11c here, the same true for many other places too.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]March 2014 was a mild, bright and rather dry month for most areas, just a few spots attaining average rainfall such as the Rugby area. Some March Rainfall totals:

    Llanwnnen 68.8mm (77% of average)
    Trawsgoed: 64mm
    Pembrey Sands: 54mm
    Rugby 47.2mm
    Coventry: 44.2mm (93%)
    Coleshill 40.0mm
    Little Rissington 37.4mm

    After rain on Monday high pressure is stuck to our SW during the coming week, it will be changeable with some rain at times, but plenty of dry weather too. SW Wales most favoured for escaping the rain after Monday and generally Wednesday is likely to be a dry, pleasant day. With the west to NW flow temperatures not much better than average (12 or 13c), although the Midlands should better this on a few days while NW Wales struggles to top 12c all week.

    Dull, wet and windy for Wales on Sunday morning, this rain affecting the Midlands too at times this afternoon. The rain should clear Wales this afternoon and the Midlands this evening, but the front does not exit the south and in fact waves back over us during tonight. Quite a wet night to come then, especially for Wales, with the rain heavy at times and lasting into Monday. The cold front clears through West Wales in the morning with sunny intervals for the afternoon, but the rain lingering well into the afternoon for the Midlands before eventually it brightens up. Sunny intervals and blustery showers for West Wales to end Monday with hail in places. A cooler day for Wales highs of 10 or 11c generally, but 14c for the Midlands. Clear spells and just a few showers about during Monday night, chance of a grass frost locally if the breeze drops off. HIgh pressure moves in close to our SW on Tuesday but the NW flow brings a few showers still along with sunny spells, Pembrokeshire most favoured for a dry, bright day. Maxima on Tuesday a rather cool 10 to 12c with the NW breeze keen. Clear periods for Tuesday night with a widespread ground frost and lows of around 2c, although perhaps too much breeze for this for West Wales bar in the hollows. High pressure over the south for Wednesday so a nice, bright day with sunny spells and highs 12 to 14c. Dry with clear spells on Wednesday night, ground frost should be restricted to the Midlands as cloud and breeze may increase for Wales.

    HIgh pressure eases away SW on Thursday permitting a front to move down from the NW. A bright start for the Midlands but clouding over with mainly light rain at times afternoon which may not reach the Midlands until late in the day. Highs Thursday just 10c for damp Snowdonia, but 14c for the brighter Midlands. Clearing skies overnight again with grass frost risk. A cool NNW flow seems likely for Friday, mostly dry and bright West Wales but some sharp showers and hail featuring over the Midlands. Highs just 10 to 12c. High pressure probably not close enough to our SW next weekend to prevent some rain at times, but no washout and dry and bright at times, although with rather cool west to NW breezes. Pembrokeshire again has the best chance of escaping the rain next weekend with some pleasant sunshine here at times closest to the high. Maxima estimated at beween 10 and 14c for most over next weekend and should it clear overnight then there is a ground frost risk.
    [attachment=210539:ecmt850.024 wet tonight wave L.png][attachment=210540:PPVG89 rain eventually to showers Mon.png][attachment=210541:PPVJ89 breezy few showers Tue.png][attachment=210542:PPVM89 dry bright Wed.png][attachment=210543:ecmt850.072 m dry Tue to Wed cool breeze.png][attachment=210544:h850t850eu fine dry Wed.png][attachment=210545:PPVO89 light rain eventually TH.png][attachment=210546:ecmt850.168 r cool some rain times weekend.png][attachment=210547:h850t850eu some rain times weekend r cool.png][attachment=210548:viewimage some rain times this week.png][attachment=210549:viewimage m dry week Pembs after Mon.png][attachment=210550:viewimage temps about ave overall.png][attachment=210551:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Often warm with rain in places and thunder chances to mid week; Thursday perhaps wet, then cooler and changeable[/b][/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    Some places,particularly the Midlands saw their coldest temperature for a year last Sunday, widely -3c or -4c and colder than anything the mild Winter could offer. Here at Llanwnnen it fell to -3.9c but was only the lowest since November (-7c), many nights saw at least a ground frost last week. The Midlands had a lovely dry and bright Moday, but a slow moving front made it a wet afternoon across SW Wales. West Wales fared best overall last week, seeing the best of the sunny spells and less of the showers compared with the Midlands, where hail and thunder featured highly. On Thursday afternoon the temperature at Coventry dropped from 9c to just 3c with hail, sleet and thunder in the area. There was some snow cover for high ground such as the Brecon Beacons at times last week, temperatures generally being on the cool side, although West Wales managed some days up to an average 11 or 12c. Showers more widespread on Friday, Coventry and some other parts getting thunderstorms and large hail, this up to 2cm in diameter at Gaydon, Warwickshire. A big change in the weather this weekend, as SE winds have introduced warm air off the Continent, on Saturday 16c was reached for West Wales in places and 18c for parts of the Midlands where it was also a sunny day. [/font][font=Helvetica]


    More very mild even warm weather in the coming week although with rain or showers at times too, and cooling off somewhat from Thursday. Sunday, a largely dry afternoon with spells of hazy sunshine. especially for the Midlands again, just the chance of some light showers for Pembrokeshire as a front wriggles over the Irish Sea. Highs between 17 and 20c this afternoon, way above the late March average of 12c. A keen SE breeze however. A largely dry, mild night no lower than 6c. Fronts move into the SW during Monday bringing more in the way of cloud and with showery rain in places, this turning heavier and more prolonged across Wales afternoon, with the chance of thunder. Some showers for the West Midlands although much of the East Midlands escaping with a dry, bright and rather warm day. Maxima ranging from 13c for Pembrokeshire to 17c for the East Midlands, the breeze less of a feature on Monday. Things drying up through Monday night with clear spells and a grass frost in places. A low pressure anchored west of Spain continues to control our weather through to mid week dragging some further warm air from the SE. Tuesday may well be a dry day with spells of hazy sunshine and highs of 17 to 19c, very good for the start of April! Just the chance of some rain flirting with Pembrokeshire later in the day. The Continental feed of air continues for Wednesday so another warm one, highs 16 to 19c for most places, sunny intervals but also showers breaking out in places too, perhaps thundery. A fresh SE wind on Wednesday knocking the edge off the temperatures.

    Thursday could be a day of sharp contrasts, a slow moving front across western parts, with West Wales perhaps wet and much cooler, while the Midlands could see another warm day with rain holding off until later in the day? 20c for the East Midlands but only 12c for wetter West Wales. This could change but a wet day for some on Thursday seems likely, and with thunder for a few areas too. Great variabilty and uncertainty in the weather models for the end of the week but a somewhat cooler prospect is expected with further rain at times for Friday and next weekend, but there should also be some pleasant dry interludes, so a mixed bag really. Temperatures probably close to or a little above average at 12 to 15c max and with frost unlikely.
    [attachment=210210:PPVG89 mild showery rain Mon.png][attachment=210211:h850t850eu mild unsettled Mon.png][attachment=210212:PPVJ89 m dry warm Tue.png][attachment=210213:h850t850eu warm m dry Tue.png][attachment=210214:ecmt850.072 dry warm Tue.png][attachment=210215:PPVL89 Wed warm some showers.png][attachment=210216:h850t850eu Wed thundery potential warm.png][attachment=210217:PPVL89 Wed warm some showers.png][attachment=210218:metslp.120 unsettled wet in places Thu.png][attachment=210219:PPVO89 Potentiually wet WW warm Mids.png][attachment=210219:PPVO89 Potentiually wet WW warm Mids.png][attachment=210220:ecmt850.144 messy FR Sa still r warm.png][attachment=210221:h850t850eu cool wet outlier weekend.png][attachment=210222:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion rain at times this week.png][attachment=210223:t850Sir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion warm mid week then cooling.png][attachment=210224:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font]
  20. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Cool with rain at times, drier after mid week and milder next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Mild and mostly dry until Thursday last week, then a rain front swept east introducing the cooler air mass we have been in since with showers about, but generally only modest precipitation accumulations. Plenty of hail showers on Saturday, and some of the hills saw sleet or snow, while a few parts of the Midlands such as Redditch and Long Buckby appear to have had thunder. A cool and rather unsettled week to come, although overall rainfall quantities not high again, but some rain or showers at times the theme, tending to become drier from mid week and milder next weekend. March 2014 is set to end up mild overall though with rain totals around average.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Further hail showers around on Sunday morning, they put down a covering of stones here first thing, and for Sunday afternoon a scattering of rain and hail showers, but these are now dying out across West Wales. Rather cool highs of 8 to 10c similar to Saturday and with a brisk NW breeze. A ridge arrives tonight, so winds drop off and skies clear this evening to give a widespread, and for the end of March, hard frost. Most inland places getting down to between -2 to -4c, and locally for the Midlands a -6c is possible, so the coldest night of 'Winter' here! By dawn on Monday the frost will be lifting over West Wales as a breeze picks up and it clouds over ahead of an advancing front. Rain into Pembrokeshire by around noon, this slowly edging NE across Wales afternoon, some quite heavy, so a cool, wet and windy afternoon over the Principality, highs just 7 or 8c, well below the late March average of 11c. In contrast dry and bright for much of Monday for the Midlands, temperatures up to 10c, the rain not reaching the East Midlands probably until after dark. The rain band then grinds to a halt over the East Midlands giving a wet night here, while by midnight Wales and much of the West Midlands has dried out. A frost for West Wales on Monday night down to -2c in places inland, and perhaps a ground frost for the West Midlands too by dawn if the cloud breaks. Two rain areas to contend with on Tuesday, the old Midlands front may edge back west to give a wet afternoon across much of the region, while another low is skirting SW Wales, so the threat of a wet spell here too at some stage. In between though Mid and NW Wales MAY escape with little and even see some sunny intervals during Tuesday and just the odd shower. Very cool on Tuesday for the dull damp Midlands and an easterly breeze, no better than 6 or 7c here, but any brightness for West Wales means 9c is possible in places. A decaying front across West Wales on Tuesday night with a little rain or drizzle in places may prevent another frost here, but a clearance expected for the Midlands means at least a grass frost down to around 0c. Another cool day with a NE wind on Wednesday, although over West Wales at least we should see some sunny intervals and 9 or 10c, while it is a cloudy and eventually damp afternoon for the Midlands no higher than 8c here. More significant rain may develop across the Midlands during Wednesday evening as a low feature moves in from off the North Sea, and even some rain may reach West Wales by midnight too, cold enough for sleet or snow above about 200m, but this not settling. At least the cloud should prevent a frost for most places on Wednesday night.

    High pressure over Scandinavia trying to exert its influence to the UK by Thursday so hopes for drier conditions. However there may well be plenty of cloud still and some further light showers especially for the south of our regions. Cool again, temperatures only managing 8 to 10c at best. A few lucky places seeing sunny intervals on Thursday but generally a lot of cloud with some of us seeing showers, a gentle east breeze. There may be a ground frost in places dawn Friday, then a lot of cloud and a chilly east wind again, SW Wales favoured best for any sunny spells and 11c here should these develop, but elsewhere around 7 to 9c only, and a few drizzly showers possible over the Midlands in particular.

    Next weekend we are between high pressure to our north and a low over Iberia. Hope then of something milder as winds shift more to the SE off a fairly warm Continent, although tempered by a stiff breeze. Perhaps still a lot of cloud on Saturday wirh showery rain in places, but a better chance of seeing the sun on Sunday and temperatures responding up to a respectable 14c in places. Frost risk low by next weekend. It looks like turning cool and unsettled though once more as we get into April.

    [/size][/font]
  21. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mild and often dry to mid week, then cool and unsettled; wintry showers possible from Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A welcome dry week gone, barely a drop of rain, but with a lot of local variation depending on cloud cover and fog. Generally though it was a sunny week with some warm temperatures at times. Last Sunday saw 15 to 18c widely, and 18.6c at Coventry, notably warm for early March. Wednesday and Thursday saw highly contrasting conditions, a sunny 16c at Llanwnnen and 17c at Bala on Wednesday, but fog and low cloud problematic for other areas really pegging back temperatures where it stuck. Parts of the West Midlands only reached a cool 7c for example on Wednesday, while on Thursday some coastal parts of SW Wales remained foggy with Aberporth only managing 6c max compared to 15c here inland where the morning fog cleared to sunshine. Much of West Wales cooled off on Friday while the Midlands warmed up! Overnight frosts quite a feature last week and Friday mornings minimum of -3.6c here was the lowest since November. Warmth again for the Midlands on Saturday, 15.5c reached at Church Lawford and Little Rissington.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Further mild and often dry weather up to mid week after which it turns decidedly cool and unsettled. Warm and sunny for the Midlands on Sunday clouding over somewhat late afternoon, temperatures up to 17 or 18c, more in the way of cloud for West Wales, a spit of drizzle for some, with just a few sunny intervals at times and highs 12 to 14c. A mild, mostly dry night follows. A ridge of high pressure over southern Britain for Monday so another generally dry picture, sunny intervals and just the odd drizzly shower for Snowdonia. Highs 10c for Snowdonia, 12c for SW Wales and 14c for parts of the Midlands where it is a fine, bright day, light to moderate westerly winds on Monday. A trough of low pressure crosses during Tuesday, this bringing some rain to Wales in the early hours and thence to the Midlands by morning along with a fresh to strong west wind. Rain or showers in places a threat then during much of Tuesday, some places not seeing much though. A cooler day with the brisk NW wind, highs just 9 or 10c for West Wales and 11 or 12c for the Midlands. Any showers die out Tuesday evening leaving a dry night with no frost. High pressure returns close to our south for Wednesday which sees an improvement. A dry but breezy day, sunny spells prevail for the Midlands but with more in the way of cloud expected for West Wales, maxima 12 or 13c West Wales and 15 or 16c Midlands, so very mild here. The SW wind freshening afternoon, and a little rain may reach NW Wales by evening. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A deep low to the north of Scotland influences our weather for the latter part of the week pushing high pressure to our SE away. A slow moving front edges rain down from the NW on Thursday, so likely to turn wet and windy afternoon across Wales while it may hold off until evening for the Midlands. Cool for much of Wales with the wind and rain, highs 10c at best here but where brightness lasts 14c for the SE Midlands. Potential for a lot of rain overnight Thursday as a wave may develop along the front stalling its progress, and turning cold enough for sleet or snow over the high ground of Wales. A cool, showery westerly flow on Friday, hail showers, and likely to be wintry at times over the hills of Wales, but with sunny intervals as well. Highs just 6 to 8c on Friday so feeling much colder for many of us. A frost for Friday night with clear spells. With low pressure sticking close to Scotland more cool, showery weather next weekend too, again these wintry over high ground, and snow a possibilty to lower ground too although not settling, this more likely should showers occur overnight. Some further slight frosts likely by night. Maxima in the 7 to 10c range, but it should not feel too bad in the sunny spells, as the sun is getting quite strong now.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=209390:PPVG89 R dry Mon.png][attachment=209391:ecmt850.024 R m dry Mon.png][attachment=209392:PPVJ89 someain or showers tue.png][attachment=209399:h850t850eu cooler unsettled Tue.png][attachment=209393:ecmt850.096 m dry mild Wed.png][attachment=209400:h850t850eu windy dry Wed.png][attachment=209395:ecmt850.096 active front TH pm.png][attachment=209396:h850t850eu turns wet windy eventually Th.png][attachment=209402:ukprec poterntial wave stall early Fri.png][attachment=209397:ecmt850.144 cool showery Fri.png][attachment=209398:h850t850eu cool showery Fri.png][attachment=209401:h850t850eu cool showery weekend.png][attachment=209403:prcpWarwickshire rain or showers from Thu especially.png][attachment=209405:prmslWarwickshire increasingly unsettled week.png][attachment=209406:t850Warwickshire colder from FRi.png][attachment=209407:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  22. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and mild to very mild with sunny spells but perhaps cloudier for the Midlands; overnight slight frosts[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we still saw some rain at times last week, it was generally a lot drier than over recent months. It became very mild across the Midlands and South Wales by Friday, highs of 14 or 15c in places. Then on Saturday the very mild weather was more widespread in spite of the wind, with across West Wales 14.9c the high at Llanwnnen, 15.4c Gogerddan, 14.4c Pembrey Sands and for the Midlands 16.2c Pershore and 14.4c Church Lawford, way above the early March average of 9 or 10c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    At long last high pressure will be controlling the weather over the UK in the coming week with Spring well and truly arriving - we will see barely a drop of rain, some decent sunny spells and mild, perhaps even quite warm temperatures, although clear spells will result in slight overnight frosts. The Midlands more likely to suffer from cloud at times due to the drift of air off the nearby cool North Sea, whereas West Wales fares best for sunshine through to Thursday. Sunday is another fine and very mild day for most and much less windy than was Saturday. Plenty of sunshine for the Midlands and temperatures should manage 16 or 17c here, while for West Wales a cloudy start but this thinning to give sunny spells this afternoon for most of us with highs of 13 or 14c here. A weakening front moves down from the NW overnight Sunday with a spot of rain or drizzle possible in places and temperatures staying above 5c due to the cloud cover, although a clearance across NW Wales may result in a touch of ground frost here around dawn Monday. High pressure establishes over the UK during Monday but with the decayed front lying within it and probably across the Midlands. A cloudy start on Monday for most but hopeful that it brightens to give some afternoon sunshine, this more likely over Wales. Much cooler than Sunday for the Midlands especially, highs on Monday 11 to 13c but pleasant enough given the gentle breezes. Clearing skies and becoming frosty on Monday night, as low as -2c in parts of Ceredigion. Another dry day for Tuesday, sunny spells especially further west, as the easterly breeze could well bring areas of cloud to the Midlands afternoon. Highs ranging from 13c for Cardigan Bay to 11c for the East Midlands, so quite mild. Any cloud dissolves on Tuesday evening with frost readily forming, locally -2c for inland Wales by dawn. Mist and fog for parts of the Midlands around dawn Wednesday perhaps. High pressure centred just to our east over the North Sea on Wednesday which should be another mild and bright day with a light SE breeze. West Wales favoured for the best of the sunshine and temperatures, a rather warm 15c in places here but nearer 12c for those parts of the Midlands where afternoon cloud sticks around. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    More of the same for Thursday, so after an early frost and mist or fog in places, sunny spells once more, better sunny periods expected for Cardigan Bay. Thursday could be the mildest day of the week with highs 14 to 16c quite widely and just a light breeze.Yet another slight frost possible for Thursday night. Subtle changes during Friday as a low passes to the north of Scotland shifting winds around to the west or SW, this means the best of the temperatures and sunshine tranfer to the Midlands by the end of the week. It should be a dry and bright day everywhere, although it may cloud over somewhat in the afternoon for Wales, highs 12c for West Wales and perhaps 15c even 16c for the Midlands. A weak cold front may bring a little rain on Friday night and looks set to cool things off more generally into the weekend, but some disagreement as to just how much cooler, and in fact the Midlands could stay decidely mild through much of next weekend too? High pressure next weekend to our SW but close enough to still provide plenty of dry weather. Just a few showers in places for Saturday and with a keen NW breeze pegging temperatures back to 10 or 11c maxima for West Wales. Sunday probably milder again but rather cloudy with a little drizzle in places but this a long way ahead![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Looking even further ahead some of the charts are indicating much colder weather perhaps with snow in places as we move into the later stages of March![/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=208960:decaying front brightens Mon.png][attachment=208961:PPVJ89 r mild sunny spells Tue.png][attachment=208962:ecmt850.072 weeks pattern ESE mild ss.png][attachment=208963:PPVL89 mild bright esp WW Wed.png][attachment=208964:ecmt850.120 mildest Th perhaps.png][attachment=208965:PPVO89 VM ss Th.png][attachment=208966:h850t850eu wind shift some rain WW late Fri.png][attachment=208967:h850t850eu R from SW weekend m dry.png][attachment=208968:ecmt850.168 mild NW flow weekend.png][attachment=208969:t850Warwickshire mild all week.png][attachment=208970:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire m dry week.png][attachment=208971:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  23. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable with some rain at times; drier and milder prospects from mid week, especially Midlands[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The West Wales deluge is over! After one of the wettest Seasons on record, here at Llanwnnen 782mm the total rain for December to February, or two and a half feet! At Coventry only Winter 1976/ 77 has been wetter since 1870 ([url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]https://twitter.com/bablakewx[/url] ) . As well publicised this has been the wettest Winter on record averaged out across the whole of Wales and England, however statistics do not tell the whole story, and for some eastern parts it has been unremarkable regards rainfall, with a few places actually below average. There have though been a couple of wetter Seasons in the past, Autumn 2000 holds that crown by a fair margin with 502.7mm the England and Wales figure compared to 450.8mm for this Winter overall.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some February rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 287.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 149.9mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberdaron: 124mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 74.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby: 51.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington: 145.2mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The Valleys and Brecon Beacons of Wales exceeded 400mm in places! In contrast parts of Lincolnshire had less than 40mm.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The Winter was also very notable for its lack of cold and snow, with most low lying areas seeing no lying snow at all - even the hills of Mid Wales have seen precious little. We have had completely snow free Winters before but they are uncommon, and often they are followed by a snowfall or two sometime during March or April. Something of an improvement in weather fortunes this week, with some dry and mild periods mid week onwards, the Midlands better favoured for this.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Bits and pieces of rain and drizzle become more continuous and heavier through Sunday afternoon across Wales and onto the Midlands by early evening along with a fresh to strong SSW wind. The rain clears overnight with a deep low centred over SW England by dawn Monday. This low then fills out over southern England through Monday with light air flows close to it. This means some slow moving downpours likely across Wales and the Midlands, with Cardigan Bay and NW Wales perhaps missing the worst of these. Elsewhere though some very heavy showers knocking about with hail and thunder in places, there should be some sunny intervals between them. Highs of 8 or 9c which is close to the early March average, with fairly light winds. Showers dying out on Monday night for the Midlands but a few keep on for West Wales, where clearances permit a local ground frost, down close to 0c for some inland parts. A very unconvincing ridge tries to dry things out for Tuesday but troughs and lows are surrounding it and so we should not expect a completely dry day as there will be showers, even some longer spells of rain in places, hard to say where exactly. Temperatures again close to average around 9c. Clear spells may well lead to a widespread ground frost on Tuesday night with any showers dying out and little in the way of wind. A proper ridge over southern Britain on Wednesday so much better prospects for a dry day. Fairly mild with sunny intervals although a weak warm front may be bringing drizzle to West Wales by evening. Highs 10 or 11c. Clearing skies means another ground frost and it may well touch zero somewhere.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure then lies close to southern and eastern UK for the rest of the week and into next weekend, so the best of the weather always over SE England while Atlantic fronts bring spells of rain to the NW. Wales and the Midlands inbetween and so experiencing some decent dry conditions but with the risk of rain extending this far south at times too. SW winds will bring mild air however, and so where it brightens, and best prospects for this are the Midlands then some pretty high temperatures for early March can be expected, with even the first 60f of the Spring a possibility by the weekend. Thursday then looks a generally dry and mild day, sunny intervals especially for the Midlands and South Wales although a front over northern Britain may affect NW Wales with some rain or drizzle possible here later in the day. Mild highs 10 to 12c but with a keen SW wind developing especially over Wales. A more active frontal system may cross all parts on Thursday night with rain for Wales which then affects the Midlands for a time on Friday, but it could be that the high close by kills off the worst of this leaving a mainly dry picture again. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Potential for an incursion of very mild air next weekend, with Saturday most favoured for dry bright and quite warm conditions, the Midlands perhaps reaching 14 to 16c (61f). This scenario still by no means certain, however it should be a dry, mild day at least. Rain may affect West Wales late on Saturday and here more cloud and wind pegging temperatures closer to 12 or 13c. A spell of rain is then likely to cool things off for next Sunday. [/size][/font]
    [attachment=208615:PPVG89 SM showers Mon.png][attachment=208616:PPVJ89 drier Tue some rain about though.png][attachment=208617:h850t850eu some rain about others stay dry Tu.png][attachment=208618:PPVL89 Wed m dry.png][attachment=208619:ecmt850.096 m dry Wed.png][attachment=208620:PPVO89 dry VM MIds some rain WW THU.png][attachment=208621:ecmt850.120 dry mild Mids rain later WW THu.png][attachment=208622:ecmt850.168 potentially VM Sat rain late WW.png][attachment=208623:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=208624:mild from mid week.png][attachment=208625:viewimage above 1020 from TH.png][attachment=208626:viewimage m dry Mids from Wed.png]
  24. TonyH
    [size=3][font=arial][b]Headline: Unsettled, rain or showers at times; temperatures mild to average; drying next weekend[/b]

    A relaxation in the stormy wet weather last week, although we all saw some rain and wind at times, rainfall only amounted to 28.2mm here for the past 7 days and just 8.4mm at Coventry. There were some pleasant, mainly dry conditions at times, in particular for the Midlands. Wednesday the mildest of the year so far in some places with Hereford reaching 13.3c and Trawscoed 12c with sunny intervals, although Carmarthenshire had a cloudy, drizzly day and just 9c the high. Thursday was the mildest night of the month to that point, lows just 7.3c here and 7.9c at Coventry for example. Then a very mild day with sunny spells for the Midlands on Thursday Coventry reaching 12.2c. Any frosts that occured were only slight as has been the pattern all Winter, that of infrequent frost next to no snow. With only a few days remaining of 'Meteorological Winter' (Dec 1st to Feb 28th) the coldest night has failed to fall lower than -3c here in the frost hollow of Llanwnnen, most Winters would see at least -8c.

    Strong winds on Sunday, gusts of 55mph at Llanwnnen and 93mph Capel Curig this morning. A mild moist SW flow over the country today, some western parts seeing large rainfall totals by Monday morning, in particular Snowdonia where over 50mm is expected in the next 24 hours. So a wet Sunday afternoon and evening for much of West Wales along with strong to gale force winds, the Midlands just seeing a little light rain and drizzle from time to time. Very mild, last night most places remained above 8c and with highs between 10 and 12c this afternoon. Further rain overnight for Wales, heavy in places, and again intermittent light rain for the Midlands. No lower than 7c for the Midlands, but the cold front comes through West Wales by dawn with a clearance and much lighter winds so lows of 4 or 5c here. The cold front lingers across the Midlands with spells of rain through Monday morning before becomimg mostly dry for the afternoon. For West Wales on Monday some sunny intervals along with some mainly light showers, highs a mild 8 to 10c. By Monday evening a deep low is approaching Ireland with further wet and windy weather into Wales, this reaching the Midlands around midnight. This rain band soon clears through all areas by dawn on Tuesday, leaving a day of blustery showers and sunny intervals. For West Wales plenty of showers, heavy and prolonged at times with hail in places, but relatively few for the Midlands, although even here some heavy ones in places. Windy on Tuesday with gales for coasts and hills of Wales, highs 7 to 9c. Strong winds and showers dying down on Tuesday night, some keeping going across West Wales though and these could turn wintry over the Brecon Beacons, lows of 2 to 4c. Low pressure to our north on Wednesday so still some showers about, but a better chance that some areas miss these and get a fine, bright, mostly dry day, in other places though the showers line up to give wet spells through the day. Highs on Wednesday between 7 and 9c again, a little above the late February average. Breezy rather than windy for Wednesday. A rather squally band of rain looks like crossing over during Wednesday night but should be cleared by dawn.

    Thursday then looks like another showery day with longer spells of rain in places, some sunny intervals too. Highs again above average with quite a breeze, but turning colder pm with perhaps wintry showers over the hills by evening. Low pressure still close by although perhaps filling up by Friday, so less in the way of wind but there will still be areas of showery rain about, although a few areas may stay predominantly dry. HIghs likely to be aroud the average of 7 or 8c. By Saturday fewer showers as the low edges east into the near Continent, a slack NNE flow over the UK, highs around 7c. A good signal from the models that a strong ridge of high pressure builds across by Sunday bringing the highest barometer readings since January, perhaps even attaining 1020mbar! Should this play out then a frosty start to Sunday with a lovely fairly sunny day, although perhaps a little chilly for early March at 7c max or so. Don't get your hopes up however, as the models are not yet convinced of a prolonged spell of dry, bright weather![/font][/size]
    [font=arial][size=1][attachment=208268:PPVG89 rain to some showers Mon.png][attachment=208269:PPVJ89 blustery showers Tue pro WW.png][attachment=208270:ecmt850.072 showery Tue.png][attachment=208271:PPVJ89 blustery showers Tue pro WW.png][attachment=208272:PPVL89 showers in places Wed.png][attachment=208273:PPVO89 showery Th.png][attachment=208274:ecmt850.144 showers about Fri less wind.png][attachment=208275:ecmt850.168 fewer showers Sat.png][attachment=208276:ecmt850.192 strong R frost dry Sun.png][attachment=208277:h850t850eu frost dry Sun.png][attachment=208278:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire wet at times WW.png][attachment=208279:prcpWarwickshire rain at times.png][attachment=208280:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  25. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Changeable with rain at times but drying out between times; mild to mid week then cooler and showers maybe wintry in places[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another soaking for many of us last week, February is turning into an exceptionally wet month across West Wales and at the half way point an astounding 213mm here in Ceredigion, the near relentless rains difficult to comprehend even for this wet area! Wetness not extreme for the central Midlands but still in excess of the February average of 40 - 50mm already, although some places such as Rugby have been drier. This has meant few flooding issues across Warwickshire and Leicestershire this month, the rivers coping well compared to the Thames and Severn the catchments which have been receiving exceptional quantities of rain since December. Some places saw snow last week, generally hardly any, but the A44 inland from Aberystwyth near the Red Kite Centre was closed on Tuesday morning by heavy snow, and snow fell for a while across much of the Midlands though not amounting to much at low levels. Not a completely snowless Winter at least for some! Another feature of the week gone were the high winds on Wednesday and again Friday which caused extensive damage and disruption, power outages and brought trees down. Highest gusts on Tuesday:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Aberdaron 108mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Mumbles 96mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberporth 87mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen 61mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry 57mph[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington 68mph[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Then on Friday South Wales and the Midlands hit hard, Coventry having a gust of 60mph which was the equal highest on record at the city centre site, while Little Rissington in the Cotswolds saw 67mph, these damaging winds for inland. Friday was eventually a mild day after some morning sleet in places, many places reaching 10 or 11c. Atmospheric pressure was below 1000mbar from February 3rd to 15th - a measure of this remarkably unsettled, wet and stormy spell, and doubtful that this has happened for a very long time. At last on Sunday a respite with, unusually for Winter 2014, a calm, frosty sunny morning! Although we will be getting some dry interludes in the week ahead, especially much of Tuesday and Wednesday - the overall picture remains unsettled right to the end of the month, so further wet and windy weather at times is the longer outlook. Yet again a largely snowless week coming up and although there will be some frosts, these never harsh. Damaging winds are not expected in the week ahead, nor is significant flooding in our regions[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A welcome ridge of high pressure giving the calm, dry and quite sunny conditions on Sunday, highs of 7 to 9c, feeling very pleasant out this afternoon for a change.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Still clear this evening for the Midlands with a frost forming, but clouding over for West Wales preventing frost here, and with light rain into SW Wales by midnight. Rain at times for Wales after midnight, some perhaps rather heavy, and it clouds over the Midlands lifting the frost here, with some rain possible by dawn. A flabby low close to Ireland on Monday, not a windy day but a damp if not especially wet one for the Midlands, more distinctly wet at times for West Wales, some rather heavy bursts here at times. Highs of 7 to 9c again but not feeling pleasant like in Sunday's sunshine. Most of the rain has cleared away by midnight, but still bits and pieces through the night and too much cloud for any frost, lows around 5c. Nothing much going on for Tuesday, a gentle mild westerly flow bringing a few showers along with sunny breaks, so not a bad day for most, up to 10c in places. A mostly dry, quiet night to follow, any clearances leading to a ground frost locally, but not near coasts. The odd shower cannot be ruled out though.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another largely dry day on Wednesday too, as a transient ridge passes over, some sunny intervals especially for the Midlands. Quite a mild day again highs around 10c. A deep low pressure will on Wednesday night..not be heading our way for once..rather following a more traditional path south of Iceland! This does though bring rain and strengthening SW winds to Wales late Wednesday afternoon or evening, some of this heavy, this rain then affecting the Midland by midnight. We will be in a warm sector so temperatures no lower than 6 to 8c, very mild for a February night. As the cold front comes through during Thursday morning a secondary low feature may form on this enhancing the rain where it does develop, this may be over the north or further south. It seems then that some of us could have a wet Thursday morning, but it is likely that this clears to sunshine and showers afternoon, these particularly for West Wales where there will be hail in them. Highs on Thursday occurring in the morning at 7 to 10c, mildest for South Wales and the South Midlands, then with a cool down expected afternoon along with a fresh west or NW wind making it feel chilly. Continuing showers for Welsh coasts and hills overnight Thursday could be turning wintry, certainly for high ground, and a ground frost forms quite widely. Friday and low pressure could be centred over the North Sea with a chilly showery NW flow, again wintriness can be expected for hilly areas. As is typical in a showery NW flow, Cardigan Bay, Snowdonia and the NW Midlands most affected by showers while some other areas escape. Highs on Friday a cool 5 to 7c with quite a fresh NW breeze. Too far off to be sure but a ridge could dry things up with a frost on Friday night? [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Even more of a split in the options weatherwise for next weekend, best guess is a dry, fine Saturday followed by some rain on Sunday, but do not hold me to this! The weather then looks like it will become very disturbed, often wet and windy for the final 4 or 5 days of the month.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=207859:PPVG89 Mon rain times.png][attachment=207860:ecmt850.048 L Ire rain times Mon.png][attachment=207861:PPVJ89 few showers mild Tu.png][attachment=207862:PPVM89 m dry mild Wed rain to WW eve.png][attachment=207863:ecmt850.096 mild wet Wed night.png][attachment=207864:ukprec heavy rai n possible Th morning.png][attachment=207865:h850t850eu rain to showers Th.png][attachment=207866:PPVO89 TH rain am to showers.png][attachment=207867:metslp.120 potential sec L TH wet in places.png][attachment=207869:h850t850eu wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=207869:h850t850eu wintry showers Fri.png][attachment=207870:ecmt850.168 dry Sat rain Sun.png][attachment=207871:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire Rain times some heavy.png][attachment=207872:prcpWarwickshire some rain dry interludes.png][attachment=207873:prmslWarwickshire mostly L R Wed.png][attachment=207874:t850Warwickshire mild to mid week then cooling.png][attachment=207875:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
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