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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells; quite mild at first, turning much colder with hard frosts from mid week,[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Most of us have enjoyed the mild and at times bright spell of late, quite a contrast to the very cold and snowy picture over much of the Midlands until Wednesday. Temperatures have been as high as 10c widely, and even 11c in places. Still on the mild side early in the coming week, but it turns colder mid week, as a bitter easterly flow sets up. It looks as though high pressure will position close enough to our north to prevent showers from forming, but expect some hard frosts by night. [/size][/font]
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    Monday and Tuesday see a continuation of the rather mild and dry weather with sunny spells, temperatures up to 8 or 9c, after slight overnight frosts and fog in places, this more especially for the Midlands where the breeze is lighter. On Wednesday things start to change as our mild high is absorbed into an intensifying cold high over Scandinavia. The colder air is introduced by a weak cold front from the east, so after a slight frost in places, Wednesday sees a band of cloud with spots of rain in places being replaced in the aftenoon by brighter, colder weather. SW Wales may hang on to the mild air until evening, temperatures reaching 8c for Pembrokeshire but only 4c fo the Midlands.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=161362:PPVG89 Mon mild H dry.png][attachment=161363:PPVK89 week CF becomes colder Wed.png][attachment=161364:ecmt850.096 Wed Scand H cold arrives.png][attachment=161365:h850t850eu colder air arrives Wed.png][/size][/font]
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    With a great band of high pressure forming all the way from Ireland to Russia, Thursday to Sunday sees cold, even very cold air, spreading west over all of Wales and England. Prior to this weekend, some of the models were suggesting that this could be quite a snowy spell in places, as well as a bitterly cold one by the end of the week, however things have now trended to a largely dry picture with high pressure close to Scotland damping down atmospheric instability and therefore largely inhibiting snow showers from forming. Pressure over Wales and the Midlands remains above 1020mbar, and with no troughs apparent in the easterly flow, few places will see any snow showers this week. It is conceivable that the Midlands may catch a few light flurries on Friday or over the weekend, but this will not amount to anything really, and would just be be flakes blowing about in the wind. For West Wales, Friday and the weekend is expected to be cold, breezy and bright with good sunny spells, while the Midlands will see more of a cloud sheet spreading over at times, but this being the flat Stratocumulus layers rather than proper shower producing Cumulonimbus clouds. With clear skies most likely over Wales, this is where the hardest frosts are likely, down to -6c in places here, but still penetrating frosts everywhere with the keen NE wind. Maxima by day from Thursday to Sunday largely in the 2 to 4c range, although parts of Pembrokeshire, which are more sheltered from the NE winds, may fare better reaching 6c in places here. This compares with the average late February figures of around 8c.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=161366:h850t850eu cold dry breezy Thu.png][attachment=161367:metslp.120 v cold dry Thu ese flow.png][attachment=161368:h850t850eu cold m dry weekend.png][attachment=161369:ecmt850.168 cold dry weekend.png][attachment=161370:mgram_Birmingham dry cold high presure from Wed.png][attachment=161371:mgram_Cardiff dry cold high pr from Wed.png][attachment=161372:PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Birmingham.png][attachment=161373:PN_D5_TT_TT_P1_NT_UV_UU_VV_METE_12000_Cardiff.png][/size][/font]
  2. TonyH
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    [b]Rather cold with rain, and chiefly hill snow at times; milder, especially for SW Wales, from mid week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A chilly, rather than cold week gone, with maximum temperatures mostly only a little below the February average of 8c here in Ceredigion, and only the slightest of frosts on a few of the nights, with too much peristent cloud cover acting as a warming blanket. It has though been quite a cold week for the Midlands, even with a little snow at times, but not amounting to much. Another 'iffy' if eventually slightly milder week ahead, after a cold start with some snow in places.[/size][/font]
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    Low pressure has formed over Wales today, and is pulling colder air in from the east as it gradually sinks south. Dull, damp and chilly for the rest of Sunday with further rain and drizzle, quite heavy at times. As the colder air moves over later this evening, the rain turns to sleet and snow over much of the Midlands, East and North Wales. With temperatures largely just above freezing tonight, any snow will be wet and will most likely struggle to settle at low levels, but high ground above about 200m could see appreciable accumulations by morning. Place such as the Brecon Beacons and the Cotswolds seeing several inches by dawn, while for most of South and West Wales there is not much chance of snow even falling tonight, at least below about 200m. Monday is a cold, damp day, with mainly light rain or sleet on and off, and again some snow over high ground. Maxima only around 3 or 4c, but milder over Pembrokeshire, 6c here. A cold NE wind too. [/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=160344:ecmt850.024 snow threat tonight esp Midlands.png][attachment=160343:PPVE89 Mon L S cold damp sleet.png][/size][/font]
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    Still a little rain, sleet or snow in places through Monday night, but with clear intervals developing later. A weak ridge for Tuesday so a mostly dry, perhaps even bright day, after a frosty start in places, and cold again, maxima just 3 or 4c. A widespread frost likely to develop during Tuesday night, and quite a hard frost should skies clear completely. An Atlantic frontal system then moves into the chilly air sat over the UK through Wednesday. Rain arrives for West Wales during Wednesday morning, readily turning to snow above about 300m, and then spreads east to the Midlands in the afternoon, only rain or sleet likely for the Midlands. Rather cold on Wednesday highs of just 4c for the Midlands, but eventually up to 8c for SW Wales where a mild sector gets over later in the day. Low pressure is close to Scotland on Thursday, sunny intervals and only a few showers, and a milder day, highs between 6 and 8c. [/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=160345:PPVJ89 Tue m dry cold week R.png][attachment=160346:PPVL89 tr rain hill snow Wed pm.png][attachment=160347:ecmt850.096 tr Wed rain hill snow.png][attachment=160349:metslp.96 rain hill snow Wed pm.png][attachment=160351:h850t850eu WS Wed night.png][/size][/font]
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    Throughout this week the Scandinavian high is ever present, although not affecting us enough to ensure a true cold snap. It is still there by next weekend, meaning that any Atlantic fronts get no further than the North Sea really, but do at least introduce milder air at times. Still this stand off by the end of the week, and signs that the Scandinavian high may intensify next weekend. So, for Friday and the weekend, weak troughs bring probably only small amounts of rain at times, with ridging from the NE attempting to dry things out, but perhaps not quite succeeding. Always colder to the NE and milder to the SW on a UK wide scale next weekend, the Midlands then generally on the rather chilly side, but conversely it may turn quite mild into SW Wales at some stage this weekend, 10c a possibilty here but with damp, drizzly conditions. Probably too much cloud for much in the way of frost over next weekend.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=160352:ecmt850.168 stand off weekend H NE week troughs UK.png][attachment=160354:h850t850eu stand off weekend.png][/size][/font]
  3. TonyH
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Mostly cold with wintry showers and night frosts; possible snow events later in the week.[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Rain amounts this past week were not high enough to give more than localised flooding. A mild week gone with no frosts until the slight ones this weekend. For the month of January temperatures averaged out a little below normal, while rainfall was close to average for both West Wales and Warwickshire, with 120mm the total at Llanwnnen and 51mm at Rugby. The weather turns quite cold again this week and many places will be seeing some snow, although this will not be a 'big freeze'! [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Further light rain and drizzle at times this evening and tonight, most of this for West Wales, but this mild damp air will be swept away as the cold front clears before dawn. With a deep low centred to the north of Scotland, Monday will be a bright but windy day with a few showers, mainly for West Wales. Temperatures around the average reaching 7c. There will be a ground frost, and local air frost for some on Monday night but with the breeze continuing. Showers becoming more widespread, frequent and wintry during Monday night as colder air digs down. Colder on Tuesday with a fresh to strong west to NW wind. Showery too, and with maxima of just 2 to 4c many of these showers will be of sleet, snow or hail. Most of the showers over West Wales, and on the hills above about 200m significant accumulation of snow is likely through Tuesday, although at lower levels, especially below about 100m, any settling is likely to be only temporary. A lobe of less cold air tracks down later on Tuesday so that showers tend to turn more to sleet or rain during the evening, especially below 300m. Becoming frosty eventually overnight.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158914:PPVG89 windy some showers Mon DL.png][attachment=158915:PPVJ89 cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158916:ecmt850.048 cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158917:h850t850eu cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158919:ecmt850.072 less cold Tue night.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Another cold and windy day on Wednesday, and with the low by this time over the North Sea/ Denmark area, winds will have turned northerly. Further wintry showers affecting West Wales, some quite heavy with hail, and with snow settling above about 200m again. The Preseli hills the favourite for a snow covering on Wednesday perhaps, with a shower 'streamer ', sometimes referred to as a 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' in which a line of showers track all the way down the Irish Sea in the north flow making landfall on the north Pembrokeshire coast. [/font][/color][/size][color=#000000][font=arial]Some wintry showers also affecting the MIdlands on Wednesday, few and far between west of Coventry, with most over the East Midlands, some good sunny spells though on Wednesday for much of the Mildands. [/font][/color][color=#000000][font=arial]Highs of 3 or 4c on Wednesday, feeling very chilly in the fresh to strong north wind. Clear periods and a few wintry showers overnight leading to a slight frost. Lighter winds for Thursday, sunny intervals and wintry showers in places, with again snow for high ground. Maxima 3 to 5c. However, disturbances or troughs could be tracking south in a slack, cold northerly flow to bring wintry showers or possibly a longer spell of sleet or snow in places later on Thursday, so something to look out for surprise snowfall-wise?[/font][/color]
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158918:PPVL89 cold wintry showers Pembs Dangler Wed.png][attachment=158920:ecmt850.120 poss disturbance surprise Thu.png][attachment=158921:h850t850eu cold wintry showers Thu.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Friday will see the Azores high ridging NE over the UK so a generally dry but quite cold day with good sunny spells. Less cold air is at this point attempting to ride over the ridge into the UK so it may be milder especially for Pembrokeshire/ SW Wales on Friday, maxima ranging from 4c over the Midlands to 7c over West Pembrokeshire. This then leads us into a POTENTIAL battleground snow event next weekend, as an Atlantic trough tries to move into the cold air over Europe according to the ECM model. The models are showing differing scenarios for next weekend (as often!) some have the cold winning out after the battleground snow possibility, while others see less cold air making it over us with just rain, we shall see...but it is difficult to get proper snow in southern Britain.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158923:h850t850eu R dry Fri.png][attachment=158922:ecmt850.168 battleground west Sat.png][attachment=158924:h850t850eu milder some rain weekend.png][/font][/color][/size]
  4. TonyH
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Very unsettled and windy, spells of rain and showers, heavy at times, localised flooding, cooler later[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]What a wintry week! Not especially cold for West Wales, surprisingly, with all the snow about, here at Lampeter there were no 'Ice days' and no hard frosts or windscreens to scrape. It was a very overcast spell, the cloud blanket preventing temperatures from falling below -4c here. However the 9cm snow which fell here on Friday 18th only gradually thawed, and was still covering more than half the ground surface on Friday 25th. A week of lying snow is quite an achievement in these temperate Isles, although in November/ December [b]2010[/b] the snow stuck for a fortnight. Warwickshire on the other hand, has had lots of snow and low temperatures with 6 ice days (max below zero) out of the 8 days to Wednesday at Coventry. Bablake School Weather Station ([url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url]) reported the greatest snow depth since 1991 last week (15cm), a measure really of how lacking deep snow has been in that part of the world over the past 22 years. [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Surprise snowfalls that were poorly forecast all around affected South and West Wales on Wednesday and caused some disruption, especially in the Llanelli area, parts of Pembrokeshire and West Ceredigion. Unusually, Llanelli had two quite heavy falls within 5 days. People sometimes ask 'will it snow here tomorrow?' and seem perplexed when the answer is a 'maybe', 'perhaps' or 'possibly'! There are many factors involved with snow prediction so that it is impossible to be certain even a few hours before a snow event, as it's almost always a case 'nowcasting' - looking at the radar, traffic cams and out of the window! There is often a fine line between whether it will rain or snow at a given location. Some of the factors involved:[/font][/color][/size][list]
    [*][size=4]height above sea level (places above 200m are much more snowy that near sea level),[/size]
    [*][size=4]air temperature close to the surface (closer to zero the better for snow, although it may still rain below zero)[/size]
    [*][size=4]temperature up in the clouds (rule of thumb, below -5c means snow will fall)[/size]
    [*][size=4]dew points MUST be below zero for snow to fall[/size]
    [*][size=4]wind direction - slight shifts make big differences, example SE cold, dry Continental air and snow, southerly moist, milder and rain[/size]
    [*][size=4]heavy rain cools surrounding air through evaporation and may turn to snow[/size]
    [*][size=4]also local topography, 'thickness' of the atmosphere, etc.[/size]
    [/list]
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial]Interestingly, most rain in the UK starts as snow high in the atmosphere[/font][/color]


    [color=#000000][font=arial]Derek Brockway, our BBC Wales weatherman, had some stick on Twitter this week after not forecasting a heavy snowfall in SE Wales on Tuesday, and then again the unexpected heavy falls in SW Wales on Wednesday. This guide is intended to be a general outlook to the coming weather over the week and is not a useful tool for picking out localised heavy snow 3 days in the future, especially given the Met Office did not realise even as the event was underway! Part of the fun with the weather is that it never fails to make fools of the forecasters![/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Thunderstorms for many of us in West Wales yesterday evening with some really bright flashes of fork lighning - everything but the kitchen sink lately! Very mild overnight, 11c maxima for Sunday in the early hours here under that warm sector air mass!. All this weather the result of a very deep low to the south of Iceland (938mbar). Nice to see the sunshine this morning... however heavy showers with hail, and again a clap of thunder in places, are set to move into West Wales this afternoon, with an isolated shower into the south Midlands also later, a windy afternoon temperatures reaching around 8c. Another deep low develops out in the Atlantic tonight and is set to bring very windy and wet weather for Monday as its fronts cross the UK. First of all clear spells and only a few showers tonight leading to a ground frost for many by morning, excepting Pembrokeshire where cloud and strong winds arrive by dawn heralding a wet day. Rain, heavy at times through the afternoon, some torrential downpours for West Wales, driven by a strong to gale force SW wind, making it feel quite cold, even though temperatures eventually reach around 8c late on Monday afternoon. The rain clears to a few showers in the evening.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158124:PPVA89 VDL 938 showery bright today.png][attachment=158125:PPVG89 wet windy Mon.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Yet another vigorous low pressure system comes at us from the Atlantic on Tuesday, this one containing very mild sub-Tropical air. With all this mild, moist air hitting the Welsh hills throughout Tuesday some large amounts of rain here with flooding likely in some areas, as there will be 50 - 75mm rain falling in places. For the MIdlands a cloudy, very mild day with spells of mostly light rain and drizzle. Temperatures on Tuesday reaching 11c for West Wales and 13c in parts of the Midlands. The trailing front from the system gives further spells of rain to south Wales and the south Midlands in particular well into Tuesday night, but drier for northern parts of our regions. Wednesday sees cooler, showery westerly winds, but with some sunny spells developing, especially through the afternoon as a feeble ridge edges over. This transient ridge could just about last long enough for a ground frost to develop on Wednesday night. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158126:PPVJ89 Tue copious rain WW v mild.png][attachment=158127:ecmt850.072 next DL L to NI Tue heavy rain espWW v mild sector.png][attachment=158128:PPVL89 bright showery Wed.png][attachment=158129:ecmt850.096 bright showers Wed.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]The next low moves towards NW Britain on Thursday, with further bands of rain and showers crossing all parts. Temperatures a little above the January average on Thursday reaching 7 to 9c. On Friday the low gets into the North Sea so dragging down colder NW winds, more rain or showers at times on Friday, and possibly sleet or snow for Welsh hills and the Cotswolds, maxima 6 to 8c, and feeling quite cold, although perhaps a drier day for south Wales and the south Midlands this.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158130:metslp.120 unsettled colder Fri.png][attachment=158131:ecmt850.144 unsettled colder Fri.png][attachment=158132:h850t850eu FRi colder showery.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Next weekend, as usual subject to change, as it is a long way off to forecast! Hinting at a drier interlude with high pressure ridging into the UK from the SW, there will still be troughs coming over the top of this high, so some rain at times, but probably nothing like there will have been earlier in the week, with generally lighter rain or showers over next weekend. Where the cloud breaks there will be the risk of overnight frosts as we will be in a chilly NW flow by then.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158133:ecmt850.168 bit of cold R weekend.png][attachment=158134:h850t850eu drier weekend cool.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]--
    Follow me on Twitter [url="https://twitter.com/Lampeterweather"]@Lampeterweather[/url][/font][/color][/size]
  5. TonyH
    [size=3][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Continuing very cold with more snow at times, snow cover persisting. Thaw possible next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]The snows duly arrived on Friday, for most of us. Carmarthen and some other spots somehow remained green oases in a white West Wales landscape, neighbouring Pembrokshire, Llanelli and all surrounding hills received at least a cm or so. Depths of snow heard about incude: Llanwnnen 9cm, Llanelli 4cm, Aberystwyth several cm, Coventry 15cm and Rugby 11cm. Also the River Teifi webcam, near Newcastle Emlyn showed that there escaped the snow too. Greatest depths were as predicted by the Met Office in the South Wales hills, with close on a foot! The snow has managed to stick with temperatures struggling to get much above freezing during this weekend, however with all the cloud there have not been any really cold nights yet in this spell, no nights below -3c here in West Wales in the past week. Much of the coming week remains very cold and with low pressure often close by, there will most likely be fresh snowfalls adding to what we already have, although it is going to be difficult to pinpoint just where and when these snowfalls will be, suffice to say that, much like todays fall in the Midlands, various areas will get surprised by new snowfalls. The thaw MAY arrive next weekend. [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Much of the central Midlands is getting a fresh blanket of snow today, with several more inches widely and it is still coming down, Warwickshire and Birmingham is getting hardest hit by this snow, Nuneaton has had over 3 inches fresh snow today, an amount that was not being forecast even this morning! This is from a trough that has moved NW from France, and is also affecting East Wales. There may be some light snow flurries for mid and NW Wales too this evening, but not likely to amount to much here. So spells of moderate snow lasting most this evening over the Midlands giving several additional inches in places. Skies may clear after midnight in SW Wales and the south MIdlands leading to a sharp frost of -5c in places, but only -1c under the cloud further north.[/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Mondays charts are very messy looking with various slow moving fronts and little lows over or close to the UK. There will be snowfalls affecting various areas, most of the snow should be quite light, but as with today some spots could see a good few inches top up, more likely NW Wales and the NW Midlands perhaps, however, be aware that a surprise snow event could crop almost anywhere in such an ill defined synoptic set up! Another very cold day on Monday, temperatures again struggling to reach freezing point over the Midlands, and just 2 or 3c at best for West Wales. A day that fails to reach 0c is known as an 'Ice day', these are few and far between in a typical Winter in southern Britain, and in milder winters there may be none recorded at all.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156473:PPVE89 (1) cold messy snow in places.png][/font][/color]


    [color=#000000][font=arial]Another low tracks over SW England during Tuesday again engaging our cold air mass, before this another severe frost in places, down as low as -10c where there is deep snow cover coupled with clear skies. Snow at times then on Tuesday, more especially for West Wales, where heavy falls are possible locally. Very cold again, it will be an ice day in places, although SW Wales should manage 2c. The low edges into France through Wednesday but is close enough for snow showers to spread west from the North Sea, affecting mainly the Midlands, and with only a few expected to make it over the mountains to West Wales. An easterly breeze on Wednesday and again very low temperatures, maxima only 1 or 2c. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156474:PPVJ89 Ch L snow for S.png][attachment=156475:ecmt850.072 Ch L Tue night snow threat S.png][attachment=156480:h850t850eu slack E Wed.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]At this stage it looks like higher pressure builds over the UK for Thursday, which looks like a mostly dry but frosty day with sunny spells, maxima of just 1c, but reaching 3c for Pembrokeshire. Another sharp frost follows for Thursday night. Changes start from Friday, signalling a likely thaw for next weekend. A deep Atlantic low approaches Ireland late on Friday with strenghening southerly winds by evening over Wales. Friday could also be a mostly dry day, as high pressure is close to Eastern England, although snow or rain may affect West Wales by midnight. Possibly the last of the really cold days, Friday should be another ice day for the Midlands, and feeling raw with the freshening wind over West Wales, although temperatures here could be up to 4c or so by evening. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156476:PPVO89 m dry frosty Thu.png][attachment=156477:ecmt850.120 cold R Thu to Fri.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Very uncertain prospects for next weekend, some model runs recently have showed a big change to milder unsettled conditions, with 10c predicted for Wales, HOWEVER, the ending of a cold spell is hard to predict, and today's models have showed the cold block putting up much more of a fight over next weekend. There is then certainly the risk of a big 'battleground' snow event next weekend, the latest GFS run shows this, and east and north Wales and the Midlands would get a quite severe snowstorm, but with less cold air meaning rain or sleet for SW Wales away from high ground. ECM's latest offering has a deep low over SW England next Saturday night which would bring strong winds and blizzards for high ground at least! [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=156478:ecmt850.168 hill blizzard Sat night.png][attachment=156479:prectypeuktopo battleground event Sat.png][attachment=156481:h850t850eu possible battleground Sat.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]A very uncertain outlook then with the threat of snowfalls right through to next weekend, however we cannot dismiss those recent model runs that suggest a thaw over next weekend instead. Overall it is expected that there will eventually be a thaw next weekend, at least for West Wales, the snow possibly lasting longer over the Midlands.[/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]--
    Follow me on Twitter [url="https://twitter.com/Lampeterweather"]@Lampeterweather[/url][/font][/color][/size]
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Disruptive heavy snowfalls, very cold.[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Due to popular request and in view of the upcoming interesting and most probably severe weather here is a mid week update:[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]

    Warwickshire had around an inch of snow on Monday, but so far this Winter the snow has missed West Wales, bar a few flurries. A weak front over the Irish Sea is giving some very light snow to West Wales this evening, although I suspect that near the coast it is drizzle. Freezing fog meant a very cold day for the Midlands today, HIGHS of -3c in Warwickshire. Pembrokeshire on the other hand managed +5c this afternoon, quite a contrast.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Further light snow flurries overnight and even tomorrow morning for West Wales giving a slight but unproblematic covering, with weak fronts close by. Another severe frost for Wednesday night over most of the Midlands, temperatures down to -7c in places again, misty with fog in places again too. A chance the snow flurries could extend into the West Midlands later in the night. Freezing fog lasting through Thursday morning in parts of the East Midlands, but an increasing breeze should lift this by early afternoon, with some sunny intervals possible. Another largely cloudy day for West Wales, a little light rain, sleet or snow at times, most of the snow flurries on high ground, as the weak front nudges slightly less cold air into west Wales during the day. Maxima on Thursday below zero again for the Midlands, and up to 5c for Pembrokeshire.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    The fun and games begins on Thursday night with a deep Atlantic low pressure thrusting it's fronts into the cold blocking Scandinavian high. The high is intensifying and unwilling to give ground over the coming days, so with these fronts hitting the cold air the result is widespread snowfalls throughout Friday lasting well into Saturday! Heavy and disruptive falls are expected, something to beware of if planning to travel on these days. Not all of us will see snow, at least not to start with, as the front will make some progress into Wales, and where it gets across to means the difference between where it rains and snows. The likely outcome for Friday appears that the snow proper starts over Wales during the early hours, although over lowland Pembrokeshire it most likely will be rain or sleet. The snow, some heavy, then spreads aross the Midlands during the morning, driven by a strong SE to east wind causing it to pile up and drift.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    For Wales then, snow, heavy at times EAST of a line roughly Swansea - Lampeter - Aberystwyth - Lleyn Peninsular, these areas look set to have a lot of drifting snow throughout Friday, many places seeing at least 6 inches on the ground by night-time, and a foot is possible in hillier areas too. A very disruptive snowfall that has consistently been modelled for these same areas over recent days. West of this line, the models suggest slightly less cold air makes it, resulting in generally rain and sleet for much of Pembrokeshire, south and west Carmarthenshire, SW Ceredigion perhaps, and the Gower. However, this 'snow-line' may well shift a little come Friday, so even Carmarthen and Pembroke may see a snowy day, and vice versa, Swansea, Lampeter and Aberystwyth could see less snow than currently modelled. Even given the various permutations, the cold wins out later on Friday, so that disruptive snowfalls then spread west to cover even SW Wales into Friday night.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    And what of the Midlands - the majority of this region seeing heavy and persistent snowfalls from Friday midday onwards lasting well into the night. Just the chance that the far NE Midlands, such as Lincolnshire may escape, but this too subject to change, should the front make it a little further east into the block? All in all, for virtually the whole of Wales and the Midlands Friday is looking like a severe snowfall event and probably not a good idea too travel, and best stock up in case you are snowed in over the weekend! Temperatures on Friday perhaps up to 5c for West Pembokeshire, but not higher than +1c for Lampeter and a bitter -2c for Rugby. Wndchill quite severe with all the snow and strong winds, not the best day to venture out for most perhaps? Be sensible take a Snow Day![/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154659:PPVI89 snow Day Friday.png][attachment=154660:ecmt850_048 heavy snow Fri.png][attachment=154661:prectypeuktopo widespread snow Fri.png][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    For Saturday, still further snow to come would you believe, as the trough gradually dies a death over the south-west. Wales and the SW Midlands looking like being hardest hit on Saturday, the snow depths piling up even further, and with the 36 hours or more of snow modelled in these areas, we are looking at a foot of level snow quite widely, and drifts many times this that would block roads and railways. The snow should begin to peter out during the afternoon. Light winds on Saturday night over the deep snow cover, means that if the cloud clears some really low temperatures by Sunday morning. Not modelled this evening, but GFS has being showing minima of as low as -14c over Snowdonia, and -8c over the Mildands. Freezing fog in places too on Sunday morning. These figures are easily attainable but depend on the clear skies. Mostly dry and bitterly cold on Sunday, just scattered snow showers, mainly for the East Midlands, few places reaching zero.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154662:ecmt850_072 further snow Sat.png][attachment=154663:ecmt850_096 Ec cold temps Sun next snow threat looms.png][attachment=154664:met_120 next snow threat Mon.png][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    The very cold weather looks like lasting well into next week too, and with another deep Atlantic low set to hit the cold block on Monday this could herald yet more disruptive snow for the supposed return to work![/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=154665:ecmt850_120 snowy Mon.png][/size][/font]
  7. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Very cold with persistent hard frost, snow for many places[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The anticipated change to colder weather has happened and looks set to last throughout the coming week. Another relatively dry week gone, especially for the Midlands, just 2mm falling at Coventry, and merely 11mm here, near Lampeter, a chance for the rivers to drop to more normal levels and the fields to dry out somewhat. The very mild start to January has brought out the rose and honeysuckle leaves in our garden, as well as unseasonably early snowdrops in some places, and I have heard snatches of Song Thrush, however, we should not be fooled into thinking an early Spring is on the cards![/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Quite a hard frost this morning, a low of -4.7c here in Ceredigion, and -3c in Warwickshire. Mostly dry, cold and bright this afternoon for the Midlands, just the outside chance a few places could see a snow flurry. Already west Wales has clouded over as weather fronts from a low pressure system north of Scotland approach. This system is set to bring a mix of rain, sleet and snow across England and Wales during the next 36 to 48 hours as it gradually tracks southeast. There is a less cold sector within the system which helps to complicate what actually falls from the sky! It was looking like the Midlands would get a fair amount of snow during Monday, however recent model runs have relented somewhat so that more of a mix of snow, sleet and rain can be expected, with the more snowy picture further east in the Midlands perhaps. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Already a wintry mix into north-west Wales, and this generally light rain, sleet and snow spreads across the rest of west Wales this afternoon. Light rain for coasts, but snow inland, at least for a time. Hills above about 200m in for an inch or so this evening, but probabaly little or no accumulation below this level, so Lampeter, for example expected to remain untroubled by snow this evening. This snow moves into the Midlands too this evening giving a couple of inches in places, although after midnight, as less cold air moves across, this may turn to sleet or rain over the West Midlands. The East Midlands set to wake up to a good few inches on Monday morning, and it could have stayed as snow all night east of Coventry with temperatures still close to zero by dawn? A real knife-edge situation for the Midlands during Monday, and potentially further snowfall in places here, while for others, especially west of Coventry, sleet and rain showers more likely through the day. Enough snow about for the Midlands to cause some traffic disruption through the day. Very cold for the MIdlands on Monday, maxima only 2c at best. For west Wales, showery and rather cold sums it up for Monday, these showery outbreaks probably falling as rain and sleet away from high ground above about 300m, although as it turns colder through the evening they tend to turn to snow more widely inland, so even Lampeter and Carmarthen may have a slushy covering by midnight. Hills of mid and north Wales getting a good few inches snow covering through Monday night as wintry showers continue. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153376:prectypeuktopo snow tonight Midlands.png][attachment=153374:Mon wintry mix.png][attachment=153375:h850t850eu wintry Monday snowy E Midlands.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Probably not enough snow to cause problems in south and west Wales below 100m on Tuesday morning, so for Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, and Llanelli traffic should not be affected compared with higher up and futher inland. Most of the sleet and snow will have cleared the Midlands by midnight on Monday, although a few snow showers still making it through overnight, and a frosty night too, away from coastal west Wales. The low pressure has moved away by Tuesday morning, so a largely dry, bright day for most, just the chance of a snow shower in places; cold maxima only around zero for the snow covered east Midlands and 3c for west Wales. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure asserts over Scandinavia from Wednesday, this often a sign of an impending very cold spell, especially when the UK is already in cold air as it will be, and with the snow cover for some areas enhancing the severe frosts. Wednesday and Thursday both set to be very cold indeed with severe night frosts, and temperatures struggling to reach zero by day, especially for inland Wales and the Midlands. Fairly sunny and dry days, just an isolated snow shower affecting the East Midlands perhaps. Temperatures down as low as -9c by night and close to zero by day. Freezing fog could also be an issue in places, and were this to persist then highs well below freezing, just -3c or so where this happens along some of the river valleys.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153377:PPVK89 H asserts Scand Wed.png][attachment=153380:h850t850eu R from Scand Wed.png][attachment=153378:ecmt850.096 cold block Wed Thu.png][attachment=153379:PPVO89 v cold H Thu dry frosty poss fog.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]This cold blocking high should keep the Atlantic at bay through into Friday, although signs are that by then weather fronts attempt to push towards the west. This could well make things interesting regards further snow potential at the end of this week and into next weekend! For Friday and the weekend then, it looks likely to stay cold but with fronts edging in from the west attempting to make it milder. As usual this begs the questions of 'battleground snowfall' possibilities and 'will the cold relent'? The Atlantic looks like having quite a difficult time against the Scandinavian high over the weekend, although the latest model outputs suggest less cold air with rain wins out after the snow by Sunday - so will we all be snow covered this time next week or will it just be cold and damp? We will see as usual![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153381:met.120 cold block holds to Fri.png][attachment=153383:ecmt850.168 battleground snow weekend.png][attachment=153384:h850t850eu less cold wins out weekend.png][/size][/font]
  8. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, turning colder, night frosts. Very cold with snow threat later.[/b][/size][/font]

    [b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]2012 was a very wet year, the second wettest year of the past century for the UK averaged out overall.[/size][/font][/b]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 1526mm wettest year since 2008
    Coventry, Bablake School: 894mm, wettest since 2007
    Rugby:874mm, wettest since 1882 (916mm)!

    These figures show that Coventry tends to be wetter than it's near neighbour, due to Rugby being that bit further east. The Midlands are - needless to state - a lot drier than west Wales, with an exceptionally wet year at Rugby still being drier than the driest ever years at Llanwnnen. Incredibly the first 3 months of 2012 were dry with drought orders in place, and just 85mm from January to March at Rugby.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]December 2012 figures (again very wet):[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 257mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Coventry: 117mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Rugby: 112mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Almost certainly 2013 must be drier! At least January has began in a much drier, benign vein, however, the highest barometer readings since May (1039mbar), did not prevent occasional drizzle from falling over west Wales. Still no snow this Winter for most of us, and 2012 had no lying snow at all at Llanwnnen. A mild start to the year, the past 4 nights staying above 8c at Llanwnnen, the DAYTIME average for January is lower than this at 7c. Turning much colder by next weekend and there MAY be snow in places.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly cloudy but mild afternoon on Sunday, just the odd spit of drizzle for parts of west Wales, maxima around 10c once more. Our high pressure is losing ground to Atlantic fronts, but has enough presence to our south-east to keep at least the Midlands dry still on Monday. A waving front over Ireland threatens a little rain or drizzle at times on Monday for Wales, and perhaps some heavier bursts for Snowdonia. Mild again highs around 10c once more. Quite a strong SW wind developing for west Wales. The cold front slowly crosses all parts during Tuesday, so another mostly cloudy day. with rain slowly working east. Probably wet even to start the day for west Wales, while it may be late in the day before rain reaches the Midlands. A wet Tuesday in prospect for west Wales though, some rather heavy rain at times here. Tuesday is however the last of the mild days this week. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151498:PPVG89 some rain WW dry Mids Mon.png][attachment=151499:PPVJ89 CF rain to east Tue.png][attachment=151500:ecmt850.048 tr slowly comes over Tue wet pm.png][attachment=151501:ukprec wet day west Wales Tues.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A ridge of high pressure follows the rain for Wednesday, which starts with a ground frost for many places. Then a nice bright and dry day but cooler than of late, maxima of 7 or 8c, close to the January average. Wednesday night is largely clear and frosty with fog patches affecting some areas by Thursday morning. Big changes in our weather pattern underway from Thursday leading to a much colder and potentially wintry one, as a blocking high forms somewhere to our north. The exact positioning of this high will dictate how cold it gets from next weekend, but the potential is there for a very cold spell setting in with snow in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151502:PPVL89 dry bright Wed.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]But back to Thursday itself, our ridge is getting squeezed by lows to the west and north-east, will this hang on? If so another bright, and coldish day after a frosty and possibly foggy start, however rain may threaten west Wales later. Exact weather details becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint as we enter atmospheric flux, so do not make plans on the basis of this guide for next weekend! It is most likely that during Friday low pressure slides close to SW UK bringing rain here, hard to say how far north-east this extends at this predictive range, so Friday looks dry for most, but rain may edge up, more especially into south Wales and perhaps also the south Midlands, and as it does so colder Continental air is dragged over the UK. Just the chance of rain turning to snow for southern parts later on Friday or on Friday night, a cold and raw day maxima probably just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151503:met.96 THu R m dry.png][attachment=151504:PPVO89 R hangs on Thu tr into SW.png][attachment=151505:ecmt850.144 FRi cold raw snow threat south.png][attachment=151506:h850t850eu cold m dry Fri.png][/size][/font]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The ECM model has a very cold scenario next weekend, with a high close to Iceland and low over the near Continent, a really cold raw NE blast over the UK. GFS also shows a very cold weekend to come, but with a Scandinavian high in place. It will not take much in these kind of set ups for localised snowfalls to occur, no way of knowing where and when as yet, but suffice to say next weekend looks very cold with snow in places. Maxima barely above freezing come Sunday, so quite a shock to the system after all the mild, quiet weather of late! The cold set up looks like lasting well into the following week too.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151507:ecmt850.168 v cold windy weekend snow showers poss.png][attachment=151508:h850t850eu Scand H v cold tr into W snow threat.png][/size][/font]
  9. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]More rain and wind at first, then becoming mostly dry and mild [/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The floods in the Midlands receded through the past week, as rainfall lessened, however there was still a substantial 40mm during the past week at Rugby. West Wales has had another very wet week with just over 3 inches (77mm) falling back home at Llanwnnen. All this rain has made 2012 one of the wettest years on record, Llanwnnen needs 2 inches more rain in the final two days to beat 2008 although this quantity is looking very unlikely, while for Warwickshire 2012 is probably the wettest year since 1966. We had a Green Christmas with some heavy showers and maxima around 8c. During Friday night the temperature remained above 10c over the Midlands. The New Year will see a welcome change to much drier weather, and it is also going to become mild again. Still no sign of real cold or snow on the horizon.[/size][/font]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Bright and breezy on Sunday with sunny intervals and showers these more especially for west Wales as usual, the chance of hail too. Cloud increases later this afternoon for west Wales as the next depression heads in, this bringing rain to all parts this evening. A mild and windy night with rain at times, some heavy for west Wales. Further fronts move across through Monday so further rain at times, possibly heavy in places, although a better chance of some dry intervals as we go through the afternoon. A mild and windy day, gale gusts possible in the morning, maxima up to around 10c. It becomes clearer and colder on Monday night with a ground frost, showers largely restricted to western coasts, so not too bad for New Year revellers!
    [attachment=150465:PPVG89 rain showers Mon.png]


    A chilly NW air stream for New Year's Day, sunny spells and some showers about, again mainly for west Wales where there could be hail.With maxima of only 6c Tuesday would be the coolest day for over a fortnight. A ridge of high pressure then gives a slight frost for Tuesday night as winds drop off, temperatures managing around zero. The rest of the week is influenced by quite an intense high pressure building over France, hence the largely dry outlook at long last! Not quite a dry picture for Wednesday however, as there are more, albeit weak, fronts coming over the top of this high, bringing cloud and some rain or drizzle in places, but none of the really wet weather such as we have experienced through December. A keen westerly breeze on Wednesday making it feel rather cold although maxima are close to the January average at 7c.
    [attachment=150466:PPVJ89 r cold some showers Tue.png][attachment=150467:ecmt850.072 Tue night R frosty.png][attachment=150468:PPVL89 Wed weak WF.png][attachment=150470:h850t850eu weakk fronts some rain after frost wed.png]

    High pressure proper by Thursday with a mild SW flow by then too, although there is likely to be a lot of cloud and only a few sunny intervals, highs of 10 or 11c. On Friday, the by now rather intense high is close to southern England, and we may have barometer readings up to 1040mbar, a level not reached since May! Needless to say another dry day, and with more in the way of sunny spells, and mild again maxima up to 10c, so a lovely day (provided the cloud shifts)! There could be enough cloud breaks on Friday night for a touch of frost in places.
    [attachment=150471:met.120 Thu dry mild cloudy.png][attachment=150472:h850t850eu HIGH pressure.png]

    The dry weather expected to last for most if not all of the weekend too, with high pressure close by to the SE. Variable cloud but with some sunshine at times, and the chance of a ground frost given sufficient cloud breaks overnight. Fairly mild with maxima of 8 to 10c. Just the possibility that fronts will encroach close enough for some rain into west Wales later on Sunday, but this may hold off until overnight.
    [attachment=150473:ecmt850.168 mild mainly dry weekend.png][/size][/font]
  10. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled, further spells of rain and localised flooding. Average to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A very wet wet week gone- totals of 50mm for Coventry and 79mm at Llanwnnen, 41mm of this falling in the 24 hours to midnight last night alone at the latter. Coventry and Warwickshire in 2012 has had double the rainfall that fell in 2011, 800mm or so against 400mm or so. Llanwwnen has had a thoroughly wet 1425mm to date in 2012, but should not beat the wettest year recently (1553mm in 2008). These figures will rise a fair bit more in the final week of 2012. With nowhere to go for even modest amounts of rain, this week is bound to see flooding in the news again to varying degrees. It has turned very mild over this weekend and during last night temperaures have been up to 12 or 13c! [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A respite from the incessant rains during Sunday but this is not going to last with the next system already making an appearance on the radar to the SW of Cornwall. A dry, mild but breezy Sunday with some sunny intervals. The next batch of rain comes from a developing wave on a long trailing front running from the English Channel to the Azores. Just how far north this gets tonight dictates how wet it will be, and also how far north the wet weather extends. West Wales looks like escaping with generally light rain tonight while the Midlands could get more signifacant falls, a further half inch or so expected to fall here, leading to additional flooding. Were the frontal wave to be 50 miles more north than predicted then this would bring SW and mid Wales into the risk of heavier rain tonight as well.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149850:PPVE89 wave rain Sun night.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]With the main low centred west of Ireland, another unsettled day on Monday with rain or showers at times, especially for west Wales where these may contain hail. Temperatures on Christmas Eve a little above average at 8 or 9c. What of the Big Day itself! Not as much as a frost to whiten the grass while opening our presents- so not very seasonal in the tradional expectations sense. Yet another trough of low pressure moves across Wales then England bringing further showery rain at times, but at least it will not be raining non stop like on Saturday, and with sunny intervals possible between the showers to get out for a walk! Best check the rainfall radar:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html"]http://www.metoffice...adar/index.html[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][url="http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=radarv6;sess=4d42d0b0b318a682ba96ce7cede0677f"]http://www.netweathe...a96ce7cede0677f[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Temperatures close to average reaching around 8c on Christmas Day. So although some rain about, this hopefully not enough to create travel difficulties on the Day itself. Enough clear intervals develping on Christmas night for a ground frost.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149851:PPVJ89unsettled Big Day.png][attachment=149853:ecmt850.048 showery rain Xmas Day.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Boxing Day, and we have a very fleeting ridge that should give at least a dry, bright and possibly frosty morning. However the next in the never ending Atlantic train of lows is steaming towards Ireland.This is set to bring further spells of rain, heavy at times into west Wales in the afternoon, and the Midlands by evening, it will also be windy later. Some heavy showers with hail for west Wales on Boxing Day evening once the main rain passes through along with with blustery winds. Enough clear spells overnight for a ground frost in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149852:PPVM89 next L Boxing Day.png][attachment=149857:viewimage more rain Boxing Day pm.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]During Thursday another of those transient little ridges crosses us, so another reprieve from the rains, but any dry weather only likely to be short-lived once more. So the possibilty of a drier interlude to get out and walk the waterlogged fields on Thursday before the next bout of wet weather! A touch colder too on Thursday maxima of 6 or 7c. The next Atlantic system is winding itself up later on Thorsday bringing more fronts in by evening or night. These get us into a warm sector with a long fetch of sub- Tropical mild SW winds which lasts through Friday. So Thursday night is one of those when it actually gets warmer rather than colder, temperatures UP to 10c by dawn on Friday. but with all this mild, moist air comes the threat of more really wet weather for Friday into Saturday. However, we may also be seing the influence of higher pressure over France on Friday, which would mean that the wet weather is restricted to west Wales, while the Midlands ecapes with just drizzle at times. A mild and windy day on Friday with temperatures reaching 12c. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149854:PPVO89 drier R Thu.png][attachment=149858:viewimage transient R Thu.png] [attachment=149855:ecmt850.144 warm sector mild rain wind Fri.png][/size][/font][attachment=149860:viewimage end week drier Midlands rain WW.png]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Saturday rain will cross all parts followed by colder conditions on Sunday but as they say...this is a long way off! One near certainty is that few of us will have seen barely a snow flake throughout the whole of December. Wonder if this is set to change in the New Year?[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=149856:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][/size][/font]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Unsettled with rain and wind at times; rather cold to mild temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A decent cold snap last week. The Midlands was especially cold due to persistent freezing fog, this meant that Coventry failed to top 0c on both Tuesday and Wednesday, while at least west Wales enjoyed plenty of albeit chilly sunshine.[/size][/font][b] [/b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Night-wise, Llanwnnen got down to -7.4c on Tuesday (not quite as low as the -7.5c recorded on November 29th), while the lowest on Wednesday night in Coventry was -5.2c and -6c at Church Lawford, Warwickshire. At least it remained largely dry through to Friday. A milder, unsettled outlook now, and this pattern could well last through to Christmas, so a White one looking very unlikely this year![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]

    Useful websites:

    [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url]
    [url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/church_lawford_latest_weather.html"]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/church_lawford_latest_weather.html[/url]

    Ground frost in places to start off Monday. Low pressure fills up over northern Britain during Monday, which will see some showers once more for many places, although a few spots escaping. Decent sunny spells between the shower clouds coming along, with a moderate westerly breeze, and not cold. Showers die out to leave clear periods and a ground frost for Monday night as a ridge approaches the west. It could be foggy to start on Tuesday. Between lows Tuesday so a dry dry and sunny day once any fog clears, but rather cold maxima of 5 to 7c. Another frost setting in during the evening especially for the Midlands, as west Wales may start to cloud over with a strengthening wind.
    [attachment=149043:PPVG89 showers Mon.png][attachment=149044:ecmt850.072 dry chilly Tue.png]

    Active fronts from a deep Atlantic system brings mild, wet and windy weather through Wednesday and Thursday, certainly enough heavy rain to present further flooding issues in places. Temperatures reaching 10 or 11c during Thursday morning, before the cold front comes through. Rain turning more showery perhaps through Thursday afternoon. On the balance of things Friday looks a day of sunny intervals and showers, heavy in places with hail, and colder, maxima 7 or 8c, which happens to be average for mid December.
    [attachment=149045:PPVM89 mild wet windy Wed.png][attachment=149046:ecmt850.096 wet Wed to Thu.png][attachment=149048:met.120 showery colder Fri.png][attachment=149049:ecmt850.120 showery Fri.png]

    Next weekend looking mild and disturbed as further deep depressions pass to our west, bringing more bouts of heavy rain and flood risks to already saturated floodplains. As for Christmas Day? My guess is that it will see further strong winds and rain at times, and definitely no snow.
    [attachment=149050:ecmt850.168 more wind rain weekend.png][attachment=149051:Rtavn2281 Christmas Day.png][/size][/font]
  12. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Cold, sunny and frosty to mid week. Unsettled and turning less cold, with rain at times from Thursday (outside chance of snow in places)[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A mixed, unsettled and quite cold week gone, almost two inches of rain falling here. Few places saw more than a few flakes of snow during the week, and it looks as though this theme SHOULD continue. However, were I typing this guide last Thursday I would have been warning about an upcoming very cold, almost Siberian week ahead, with snow in places! During Friday this previous model consencus underwent a massive turnaround so that we are now looking at no more than a more run of the mill dry and cold snap, with milder and wet weather eventally to end the week (so ignore the dire warnings of an impending Ice Age from the likes of the Daily Express!).[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Fairly mild and quite windy this (Sunday) afternoon with light rain and drizzle on and off as a weak cold front moves down from the north. Skies clear tonight leading to a slight frost as the wind drops off after midnight. High pressures ridges down from the north during Monday, so after a frosty start it's a dry and bright day with decent sunny spells. There will be a cold NE breeze with maxima generally only 3 to 5c, but milder on the west Wales coast up to 7c here. Clear skies Monday night, with quite a hard frost, down to -4c in places, with local fog patches also forming. The high slowly sinks south over the UK on Tuesday which is another cold and dry day. Mostly sunny then for Tuesday, a lovely crisp, cold Winter's day with highs of just 2 to 4c, so the frost persisting all day in the shade. Perhaps even colder for Tuesday night, minima between -4 and -6c widely away from coasts, and again a few fog patches in places by the morning. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=148132:PPVG89 (1) R from N cold sunny Mon.png][attachment=148133:PPVK89 hard frost Tue night.png][attachment=148134:ecmt850.048 cold frost sunny Tue.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Wednesday the high edges away into the near Continent as a trough of low pressures heads in from the Atlantic. A dry, sunny but very frosty morning on Wednesday, and probably staying this way all day over the Midlands, but west Wales may cloud over during the afternoon. A very cold raw day, temperatures struggling to get above freezing for the Midlands and only managing 2 or 3c for west Wales. Patchy rain, with perhaps hill snow reaches west Wales through the evening and could spread to the Midlands overnight. With the ground frozen by the time any rain arrives to the Midlands this could well freeze on impact- so that first thing Thursday may be very icy underfoot here. Milder air over west Wales should prevent this from happening here.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Quite a high degree of variety in the model output Thursday onwards, with differences in the extent and alignment of the 'attack' of the low to the west, which means that subtle differences make a big difference to the actual weather, which begs questions such as: how far the milder air progresses? how quickly? wind direction southerly milder, or SE cold. Such are the differences between rain and snow! It was looking as though south to SW winds would get less cold air across the UK by Friday, but the some of the latter model runs have a different tilt to the trough resulting in cold SE winds off the Continent for Thursday, a sign of the block re-asserting perhaps?[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Low pressure is then modelled to stay out west of the UK over the nearby Atlantic right through the end of the week and into next weekend even, prevented from getting further by the cold block over Scandinavia. Thursday looks a cold, raw day with further rain and drizzle, and possibly even sleet in places. Maxima between 3 and 5c as the milder air really struggles to cross the country. More active fronts look set to push into the cold air (IF it manages to hang on?) on Thursday night into Friday, this poses the risk of a spell of sleet or snow early on Friday, before turning to rain as the milder air wins out. However this is by no means the only option for the end of the week, and alternative scenarios are that some places get a good dumping of snow on Friday (obviously more likely for the hills in the north of our regions), or indeed the mild pushes through more effortlessly so we just get the usual wind and rain from the weather fronts? We will see![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=148135:PPVO89 some rain less cold Thu.png][attachment=148136:ecmt850.120 cold SE flow Fri snow to rain.png][attachment=148137:h850t850eu rain Fri.png][attachment=148138:Rukm1441 L Fri night snow threat.gif][attachment=148139:ecmt850.168 SW flow less cold unsettled weekend.png][attachment=148140:h850t850eu unsettled weekend.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Continuing unsettled but less cold next weekend, further rain at times, but with drier spells too, so that frost remains a possibilty at night should skies clear. [/size][/font]
  13. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Rather cold, rain or showers at times; frosty at times, snow less probable.[/b]

    A reprieve from the rain last week, only 4mm falling since Monday here. As the models predicted it turned cold from mid week, and on Thursday morning Llanwnnen was colder than anywhere else in the UK getting down to -7.5c and only managing 1.8c during the day - very cold for November. Church Lawford, Warwickshire, had a minimum of -5c on Saturday morning. Turning milder early this week briefly, then generally another pretty cold week ahead, with rain or showers at times. The hint of wintriness for brief interludes on Wednesday and again Friday, but it is felt that any snow will be largely restricted to high ground, i.e. no major snow event as yet.

    After a frosty, and in places foggy start, the Midlands will have a dry, bright and cold Sunday, however cloud spreads over west Wales bringing rain eventually this afternoon. The rain then spreads to the Midlands this evening, so no frost tonight. After quite a wet night the rain has cleared most parts by dawn, then a bright and breezy day with showers in places. Due to the westerly winds and lack of heating over land now we are in Winter, it is west Wales, being adjacent to the relatively mild heat energy source of the Irish Sea, that will get most of the showers on Monday and Tuesday. For west Wales then a showery couple of days, some of these heavy with hail being quite a feature, but a drier, brighter picture for most of the Midlands, as not so many showers make it over. Milder, maxima between 6 and 8c for Monday and Tuesday, but not feeling so in the fresh wind. There could be a longer spell of rain coming over during Tuesday afternoon or evening.
    [attachment=146747:PPVI89 r cold showery Tue.png]

    The trough bringing the rain and showers early in the week clears through on Tuesday night with cold northerly winds behind it, so a possibility of showers turning to sleet or snow in places before Wednesday morning? There will in any event be a frost by Wednesday morning. A cold day on Wednesday, good sunny spells and only a few wintry showers about, mainly for NW Wales, so snow likely over Snowdonia. Only reaching 3 or 4c on Wednesday. A cold and frosty night to follow, down to -5c in places, although it may cloud over by dawn Thursday and start to lift out the frost. Further fronts from a low crossing Scotland move in from the NW during Thursday with less cold air over Wales and England again and rain at times. Maxima of 5 to 7c on Thursday, a raw, damp and chilly feeling kind of day.
    [attachment=146749:PPVL89 northerly Wed.png][attachment=146750:ecmt850.072 cold return Wed.png][attachment=146751:PPVO89 brief warm sector Thu some rain.png]

    The low moves SE into Europe on Friday and yet again we see cold north winds dragged down behind it over the UK. A frosty start to Friday, though not as cold as the highlands of Scotland where -18c is shown on a recent GFS model run over the snowfields for Friday morning! Another ridge should give a dry bright Friday, but cold with maxima only 2 to 4c. Were any showers to creep through on Friday in spite of the ridge, then these could well contain a wintry flavour, with snow for high ground. Probably another frost to follow. (Note: latest GFS run has the low much further SW and so could threaten snow to Wales and the Midlands - this is not considered the more likely outcome, but rather something to bear in mind for later in the week!)
    [attachment=146754:met.120 Fri low rain to dry colder.png][attachment=146752:ecmt850.144 second coming Fri to Sat.png][attachment=146753:ukmintemp -18c Scotland Fri.png]

    Not even going to try to predict next weekend, so varied are the signals from the models, other than it will not be mild! Mixed could sum it up though.
    [attachment=146755:ecmt850.168 mixed weekend.png]
  14. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Wet start , turning cold later, snow possible next weekend[/b]

    An exceptionally wet week with flooding in many areas. Warwickshire having an inch of rain on Wednesday flooding the Avon and other rivers, while it was west Wales turn for floods on Thursday, Llanwnnen getting 30mm. Another deluge in the past 24 hours, Coventry has just had it wettest November day in the 120 year record, and Llanwnnen and most of west Wales picked up another inch! Total rain fall figures for the past 7 days:

    Llanwnnen 93mm
    Coventry 88mm
    Rugby 66mm




    At least it was fairly mild! Turning colder in the coming week, more rain at times to Tuesday, then drier, but the threat that things turn wintry by the weekend. Frosts becoming a major feature from mid week onwards.

    A respite for a time today before the next low pressure arrives from the SW, hard on the heels of the one responsible for all the flooding this weekend. A scattering of showers already into west Wales with further prolonged rain arriving later this afternoon. The rain should hold off until this evening for the Midlands where it is currently nice and sunny. This latest low crosses Wales then England during Monday bringing further spells of rain or showers at times, some of this again heavy, and exacerbating the flooding. After light winds on Monday morning, there will be a strengthening northerly for west Wales in the afternoon and the Midlands by evening, making it feel quite cold.
    [attachment=145815:PPVA89 culprit.png][attachment=145816:PPVG89 Mon L.png]

    The low gradually edges away into the Continent on Tuesday but still with a legacy of wrap around rain or showers in places, although some areas will appreciate a somewhat drier day. Quite a cold fresh NE wind in its wake and maxima of just 6 or 7c. Enough breeze on Tuesday night to prevent more than a touch of ground frost in places. With the low well away by Wednesday, this should be a mainly dry day, bar the odd shower here and there. The sun should also make a welcome appearance, although feeling chilly in a fresh NE breeze. Winds will drop off on Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure edges in from the west, so a cold and frosty night, as low as -3c in places, especially Llanwnnen!
    [attachment=145817:ecmt850.048 unsettled chilly Tue.png][attachment=145818:PPVL89 L well away dry cold Wed.png]

    Increasing uncertainty with the details for the latter part of the week, the one consensus being that it turns decidedly cold with frosty nights. Things are complicated as we are subject to various influences, with low pressure still close by over the Continent but high pressure trying to build to our north. The effect of this build of pressure to our north being to halt the progress of Atlantic lows and therefore keeping any milder conditions well away to our west.

    On Thursday then a frosty start looks likely, then a trough of sorts moves down from the north or NW bringing some showers during the day in places, these perhaps wintry over high ground. This trough looks like introducing the cold air proper that then lasts over the weekend. Maxima of 4 to 6c on Thursday with a frosty night to follow, and any showers could well fall as snow over the hills. With low pressure close by to the east, and the possibility that further disturbances (complications) will track south in the generally northerly flow, Friday and the weekend is looking cold with the threat of wintry showers or even longer spells of rain, sleet or snow. Temperatures are certainly suggesting a strong possibility of snow, and for the hills of Wales and the Cotswolds the charts make a snow cover likely by the weekend, this perhaps also coming down to low levels at times too. However, we are usually very marginal for snow in the UK, and the presence of little lows coming down within the north flow means some less cold air would be entrained into these- hence the prediction of rain, sleet or snow. At least a chance then that some of us will be very cold with snow cover this time next week, GFS having highs of just 1 to 3c next Sunday with precipitation knocking about too!
    [attachment=145819:ecmt850.096 colder Thu.png][attachment=145820:h850t850eu cold R Thu dry frost.png][attachment=145821:met.96 m dry Thu r cold.png][attachment=145822:ecmt850.168 cold frosty perhaps wintry showers weekend.png][attachment=145823:ukmaxtemp v cold weekend.png]

    Whether we are in for a short cold snap or a more prolonged spell of Winter lasting well into December is not yet certain, although it looks like turning milder at least for a while during the following week.
  15. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled, rain and strong winds at times; average to mild temperatures[/b]

    Most places reached 13 or 14c mid week, well above the mid November average (10c). Llanwnnen saw the highest reading of the month (13c) on Tuesday afternoon soon followed by the lowest (-1.6c) on Thursday morning. This was due to the importation of less mild Continental air late on Wednesday bringing clearing skies which caused all the fog and local frost on Thursday. It was notable how thick was the fog on the Bablake School, Coventry webcam even into Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile Aberystwyth had a lovely sunny and mild Thursday - big contrasts on that day as Lampeter remained mainly cloudy and cool. A reasonably dry week until the rain Friday evening and night. Plenty of rain in the coming week, heavy at times for west Wales, where a couple of inches is set to fall during the week. Temperatures on the mild side until it cools off by Friday, with frosts likely to be a feature over the weekend again.

    A hard frost last night, the coldest of the season to date, down to -5.2c in this particular frost hollow, and colder than any of the official stations in the UK! A fine, fairly sunny afternoon as we are under this transient ridge of high pressure. Atlantic fronts are approaching as witnessed by an increasing veil of high Cirrus cloud through the afternoon which makes the sunshine more hazy over west Wales. So with increasing cloud and breeze this evening means no frost bar a brief touch for parts of the Midlands possibly. Rain and drizzle from later evening for west Wales lasting through to Monday morning, the rain not reaching the Midlands until the end of the night. The cold front brings a period of heavier rain with strong winds through west Wales tomorrow morning and onto the Midlands in the afternoon, this clearing west Wales to a few afternoon showers and sunny intervals. Temperatures reaching a fairly mild 10 to 12c during Monday afternoon.
    [attachment=144809:PPVG89 Mon CF rain and wind.png]

    From Tuesday through to Thursday we are influenced by a complex of lows close by to our west and north. This means a fairly mild and windy spell, with rain fronts never far away. Tuesday sees active fronts crossing all parts, with spells of rain and strong winds again, but as the winds are southerly we are in a mild air mass, maxima of 13 or 14c. The rain should clear by Tuesday night, then a bit of a respite from the rain during Wednesday and Thursday for the Midlands at least. This is due to a ridge of high pressure nosing towards eastern England and holding the fronts out west. This means that the rain fronts will be slow moving somewhere over western parts mid week. The wet zone was being predicted across west Wales, however this has trended further west over Ireland. There is then still the threat of wet weather edging in from time to time over west Wales during Wednesday and Thursday, although probably not the washout that was previously modelled. A stab at Wednesday and Thursday would be mostly cloudy and windy for west Wales with some rain and drizzle at times, this perhaps turning heavy at times, more especially over Pembrokeshire, where there could be localised flooding. For the Midlands a fairly dry but rather windy couple of days, plenty of cloud, but the sun managing to break through from time to time, and also the possibility of a little drizzle in places too. Continuing on the mild side for all areas, maxima between 10 and 12c with night frosts very unlikely.
    [attachment=144810:PPVJ89 very unsettled mild windy Tue.png][attachment=144811:ecmt850.048 rain bands mild wind mon Tue.png][attachment=144812:h850t850eu respite Wed.png][attachment=144813:PPVO89 rain W dry E Thu.png][attachment=144814:ecmt850.096 rain west dry east Thu.png]

    Finally, by Thursday night and Friday, the trough is slowly making its way across the UK bringing rain bands or showers to all parts, some of these heavy especially in the west. Lighter winds and a cooler feel for Friday, maxima of 8 to 10c. With clearing skies on Friday night a ground frost is likely.
    [attachment=144815:met.120 Tr makes it Thu night.png]

    The usual uncertainty by next weekend, our trough should have either weakened or edged away east by Saturday, allowing high pressure into the south. Tentatively then - another largely dry, rather cool and bright interlude for next weekend. Decent sunny intervals and just a few showers about, with frosty nights is how it's looking at the moment. There is though the alternative hypothesis that this could change to a continued unsettled outlook such is the range of possibilities on offer at this range.
    [attachment=144816:h850t850eu weekend R.png][attachment=144817:ecmt850.168 rather unsettled again weeknd.png]
  16. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Fairly dry and mild with some fog[/b]

    A mostly dry week gone for the Midlands, but still wet weather to start and end the week here in west Wales giving one and a half inches in total. Rather cool, but never cold and with a few slight frosts too. Quite a lot of dry weather in the week ahead, especially for the Midlands once more, with west Wales more likely to see some rain at times. No day has reached the early November average of 12c thus far at Llanwnnen, so a fairly mild week ahead should be welcome by most normal people (although not by cold weather fanatics!), although it's looking cooler and more unsettled for next weekend.

    Still the chance of a shower this afternoon for west Wales, but largely dry and sunny. A ground frost forming this evening, but a warm front arrives by morning clearing this from all but parts of the Midlands by dawn. We enter the warm sector of an Icelandic depression and so milder spell during Monday, which will be mostly cloudy with rain or drizzle at times, west Wales as usual being most prone to this. A mild afternoon for west Wales up to 12 or 13c, although the mild air not arriving until evening over the Midlands, by which time it will reach 10c. It will be quite a windy day. A very mild night to follow, no lower than 9c anywhere.
    [attachment=144126:PPVG89 damp WS arrives Mon.png]

    The cold front never makes it across and stalls over Ireland mid week, halted by a strong high pressure over central Europe. The ridge from this builds over southern England and Wales mid week, so Tuesday and Wednesday are essentially dry and mild days. Probably remaining cloudy on Tuesday with a fresh SW wind, even some drizzle at times for west Wales, but Wednesday looks a dry day with greater chance of sunny spells developing as winds turn more southerly. Fairly mild again both these days maxima 11 or 12c. With winds falling light during Wednesday night clearing skies will lead to a widespread ground frost and thick fog in places.
    [attachment=144127:PPVJ89 WS m dry Tue.png][attachment=144128:PPVL89 R south dry mild Wed.png][attachment=144129:ecmt850.096 mild R dry Wed.png]

    Things getting a bit iffy by Thursday as a low sinks to the south-west of Ireland, this perhaps threatening a little rain into west Wales on Thursday, but it is likely that the relatively high pressure over England and Wales keeps it generally dry and bright with sunny intervals, provided the morning fog clears that is. A touch cooler on Thursday maxima around the mid November average of 10 or 11c. Still the chance that more fog could form on Thursday night, but less widespread than on the previous night, and also lesser chance of ground frost too, as milder air starts to move up during the night.
    [attachment=144130:met.96 slack foggy Thu.png]

    The Euro high that has given the generally dry week declines by the weekend allowing a more westerly influence in. Friday sees mild southerly winds returning, and a front approaching Ireland, this perhaps bringing rain to west Wales later in the day. Temperatures reaching 12 to 14c, the best of the month to date. A more changeable look to next weekend with a band of rain slowly crossing the country to be followed by dry sunny weather (timings uncertain), and a fresher cool feel eventually to the weekend.
    [attachment=144131:h850t850eu mild Fri.png][attachment=144132:ecmt850.144 Tr into west Sat.png][attachment=144133:h850t850eu mobile changeable cooler weekend.png]
  17. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Some rain at times with dry spells too; fairly cool. Wet by next weekend.[/b]

    A cool, wet week gone, especially for west Wales, with well over 2 inches falling at Llanwnnen. There has even been a little sleet and wet snow in the showers, along with hail, thunder and lightning for some! A cool week too, on Thursday temperatures for many did not better 8c. This week will be somewhat drier, still some rain on some of the days but not all, and with some fairly decent dry interludes, these most likely for the Midlands. On the cool side again, although less so than last week. Ground frost may still feature on a few nights this week, probably too much breeze for any fog though. Turning wet for all by next weekend.

    Heavy snow for parts of the West Country this morning with a couple of inches in parts of Somerset - it is possible that over the south-east Midland's where it is raining heavily could see this turn to sleet even wet snow before it clears this afternoon (already reports of snow falling in Northamptonshire). Heavy showers with hail in places for west Wales this afternoon, and a cool day everywhere, maxima ranging from just 6c over the wet east Midlands to 10c in Pembrokeshire. Further showery rain tonight with a little low over the south, probably too much in the way of cloud for frost tonight.

    A cool northerly flow for Monday, sunny spells and a few showers, but many places staying dry. Maxima just 8 to 10c, so dry for any traditional Guy Fawkes night bonfires. Enough in the way of clear skies for a frost Monday night, although this may have cleared by Tuesday morning in west Wales, so you may not need the scraper here! A slight ridge of high pressure builds in for Tuesday so another mostly dry day, although quite a lot of cloud coming in with WNW breeze, and some rain may affect the Midlands for a time during the afternoon. Cool again Tuesday with 8 to 10c the highs, and feeling chilly in the breeze. Milder air so no frost on Tuesday night, perhaps some drizzle for west Wales.
    [attachment=143593:PPVG89 cool few showers Mon.png][attachment=143594:PPVJ89 m dry Tue.png][attachment=143595:ecm500.072 m dry Tue after frost.png]

    Low pressure closes in on Scotland on Wednesday with a cold front moving east over Wales and England, so rain at times for west Wales much of the day, this not reaching the Midlands until the evening, and then probably only light rain at worst. A little milder on Wednesday temperatures reaching the early November average of 11 or 12c. The cold front only moving slowly east on Wednesday night so still rain at times for the Midlands, but clearing over west Wales to a few showers, with just the chance of a ground frost here. Thursday a bright day, with sunny spells and a few showers, quite cool again maxima 9 or 10c. A small chance of the cold front waving back into the Midlands during Thursday to bring further spells of rain, but odds on a fairly dry day for most places. Clearing skies under a transient ridge gives widespread frost Thursday night, down to -2c in colder spots.
    [attachment=143596:PPVL89 CF brings some rain milder Wed.png][attachment=143597:Rtavn844 CF Wed.png][attachment=143598:ecmt850.096 cool some showers Thu.png]

    It could be a bright and frosty start on Friday, but then low pressure moving south of Iceland brings rain fronts east during Friday, although it could stay dry until late on across the Midlands. Feeling cool in an increasing south-west wind during Friday, temperatures no better than the early November average of 11c. Low pressure up against a blocking Russian high next weekend, with fronts becoming slow moving over the UK perhaps, and this could bring quite a lot of rain in places, and still on the cool side.
    [attachment=143599:ecmt850.144 rain wind from W Fri.png][attachment=143600:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=143601:Rtavn1624 SM trough weekend v wet places.png]
  18. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool with spells of rain, heavy at times mid week onwards, especially over west Wales[/b]


    West Wales experienced some warm Autumn sunny intervals on Wednesday with highs of 17c here - it may well be the last time it gets this mild until next Spring. The Midlands was also in the very mild air, but never got above 14c last week, the NE breeze coming off the North Sea kept it cloudy and sometimes misty with drizzle. However, we all experienced very mild nights staying above 11c until mid week. Much colder since Friday, and in total contrast a hard frost on Saturday morning, down to -4c at Llanwnnen, not as cold as the amazing -6c recorded here in October 2010 though! Hardly any rain last week, but a good dose to come this week, especially for west Wales, where the GFS model is going for 2 to 4 inches to fall in the next 7 days, and so the risk of localised rather than widespread flooding here.
    [attachment=143012:Rtavn18018 wet week.png]


    The more unsettled spell has already begun with further rain at times the rest of Sunday and tonight, most only light over the Midlands, but heavy at times for west Wales, quite a good example of the rain shadow effect, with the Welsh hills sucking out much of the moisture. Monday starts damp and cloudy but should see some sunny intervals during the afternoon with just the odd light shower about. Rather cool maxima 10 to 12c. The chance of a ground frost in places on Monday night where the cloud clears sufficiently. On Tuesday the fronts should just about be passing far enough north to keep it generally dry with sunny intervals, although drizzle may arrive by evening into west Wales. Although dry, Tuesday will be a cool and breezy day, temperatures 10c at best.
    [attachment=143010:PPVJ89 m dry Tue.png]
    .
    By Wednesday things are turning very unsettled as low pressure moves into Scotland. A wet day for west Wales, periods of rain, heavy at times, and with a fresh to strong SW wind. A cloudy day for the Midlands too but the worst of the rain may hold off until late afternoon or evening. Feeling cool again, maxima just 9 to 11c. The rain should be clearing west Wales during Wednesday evening, but hangs around well into the night for the Midlands. Still some blustery showers affecting west Wales through the night . The same low then sticks close to Scotland through both Thursday and Friday, which will be cool, even very cool, quite windy and showery days. The worst of the showers over Wales but a few getting into the Midlands too. These will be heavy with hail at times, especially again for west Wales, but with sunny intervals between. Temperatures really struggling in the chill west to NW wind, only reaching between 8 and 10c, decidely cool for the start of November, in fact cold enough for the showers to be turning wintry over the hills of Wales and the north Midlands. Strong suggestions in the models that a secondary low feature will track across southern Wales and England during Friday, which would bring a longer spell of rain, lasting 4 to 6 hours, and perhaps with sleet over high ground, at some stage during the day. If the wind drops off enough by night late in the week, then ground frosts will readily form during any clear spells.
    [attachment=143011:PPVL89 wet windy Wed.png][attachment=143013:ukprec wet Wed aft.png][attachment=143014:ecmt850.096 rain showers Wed night.png][attachment=143015:h850t850eu cool showery west Thu.png][attachment=143016:ecmt850.144 sec low whistles through Fri.png][attachment=143017:h850t850eu sec L Fri.png]

    Even into next weekend it remains unsettled and cool, with low pressure over or close to northern Britain. Further showers or longer spells of rain, with sunny intervals between, more especially for the Midlands.
    [attachment=143018:ecmt850.192 cool unsettled weekend.png][attachment=143019:ecmt850.192 cool unsettled weekend.png]
  19. TonyH
    [b]Headline: [/b]
    [b][b]Mostly dry and very mild; much colder by Friday and next weekend[/b][/b]


    Quite a wet week gone, 2 inches of rain for Llanwnnen, although under an inch for Coventry. Temperatures around the average last week, each day reaching between 12 and 15c here, although the Midlands reached a mild 16c on Wednesday and Thursday, while parts of west Wales also managed 16c on Saturday (except the Lampeter area!). Even warmer into the new week as we get a drag of very mild Continental air coming up from the SE. Temperatures will widely get into the low 60's f, the highest of the month, and quite likely the last time we reach such dizzy heights until next Spring! A big drop in temperatures come next weekend when maxima will be almost 10c colder than the start of this week, say 8c rather than 18c! The really cold air is however missing the UK, this going to our north-east and bringing the first notable snowfalls of Autumn to Scandinavia by next weekend.

    Dense fog on the Bablake School, Coventry webcam this morning, and a ground frost here in west Wales- all very Autumnal. A lovely mild and sunny afternoon for us in west Wales, the fog over parts of the Midlands clearing to a bright afternoon (hopefully). Clouding over from the east overnight, so frost and fog is unlikely Monday morning. This is a warm front introducing the very mild air, but running into high pressure centred over Scandinavia, so not producing much in the way of rain. Mainly cloudy and damp on Monday, light rain and drizzle in places. Very mild air, but this only being realised should the sun break through and this not likely further west. Maxima on Monday ranging from 14c in cloudier west Wales to perhaps 16c where it brightens later over the Midlands.
    [attachment=142349:brack0a mild damp places Mon.gif]

    With the weak front lying over west Wales by Monday night, a damp one here, and for many places a foggy night, but with the mild air mass now over us no frost. With high pressure over northern Britain and low pressure west of Iberia a very mild, slack ESE drift of air over England and Wales for Tuesday and Wednesday. Were this September then this set up could well produce 80f and sunshine, however we are now at the end of October and the power of the sun is much declined. The potential is certainly there for warmth even this late on, and 70f has occurred into November in the past, however such warmth depends very much on the cloud amounts this week (and very difficult to predict). The drift is off the near Continent from between east and SE which suggests better chances of sunny spells for west Wales compared with the Midlands, however most of us should see at least some pleasant and warm sunny spells on Tuesday or Wednesday. Where it remains largely cloudy temperatures pinned no higher then 15c, but given several hours of afternoon sunshine 18c is a more likely figure, these higher readings more expected over south- west Wales - some 5c above average for the end of October. Another ingredient in the mix for mid week, with light winds and humid air, is that given any clear intervals by night, thick fog will form and last well into the mornings, so Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will see thick fog in places, but certainly no frost, temperatures not falling lower than 8c.
    [attachment=142350:brack1a v mild variable cloud Tue.gif][attachment=142351:Rtavn601 dry v mild Tue potentially warm.png][attachment=142353:Rtavn6017 potetially bright and warm Tue.png][attachment=142352:Recm722 v mild dry mid week.gif]

    Changes start on Thursday with the high pressure pulling away towards Greenland, and starting to open up the floodgates for much colder northerlies. However the mild air just about hangs on for the south on Thursday, which will be another mostly dry, even bright day, although cooler with maxima between 12 and 14c. The cold front moves down from the north later on Thursday, bringing cloud and a few showers, and feeling much fresher by Thursday night. By Friday we are in a deep flow of cool Arctic air, originating virtually from the polar region. There may be a legacy of rain over SW Wales at first on Friday should the cold front pep up which some models are going for, but then a generally dry but very cool spell. This will by no means be a cold 'blast' such as we would be getting were we in December, however a very noticeable cool down especially following on from the mild weather of mid week. This very cool air is being driven down between a large low over Scandinavia, so plenty of early snowfall for them, and high to our north-west, it is though much moderated by our surrounding seas that are still quite warm in October. Therefore, not anticipating that it will be cold enough for any wintriness this far south, but we will certainly feel the chill Friday and over next weekend and with frosty nights. Mostly dry still into the weekend, just the chance of an isolated shower getting down, but if these occur most likely rain only, although the highest hills of Wales would be seeing sleet or snow showers. Sunny spells, but with a chill north to NE breeze next weekend and overnight frosts for many places, down as low as -3c in more prone spots such as Llanwnnen - this being quite a hard frost so early in the season, but probably too much breeze for much in the way of fog to form. By day, very cool for the end of October, maxima only 7 to 9c, so 10c colder than mid week! Signs are that is will stay on the cool side into the start of November too.
    [attachment=142354:brack4 mild south Thu H Gr.gif][attachment=142355:Recm1202 big cool off Fri.gif][attachment=142356:Rukm1441 v cool NE Fri.gif][attachment=142357:Recm1682 v cool m dry weekend frosty nights.gif]
  20. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Becoming very unsettled, rain or showers, heavy at times; rather cool. Milder weekend.[/b]

    The Lampeter area still has not reached 60f (16c) this October which is most unusual, a very cool start to the month - last year we reached almost 80f (27c) on the October 1st! Localised flooding for parts of Wales last Thursday, including Cardigan where over an inch of rain fell during the afternoon. The Aberystwyth area had almost an inch falling from frequent heavy showers on Saturday. Another disturbed week to come and no doubt some further high rainfall totals and localised flooding. The 60f barrier unlikely to be reached again over west Wales this week, which will be another rather cool one overall, although frost is unlikely after tonight.

    Many of us had a frost this morning, down below -1c here in Llanwnnen and 0c at Rugby. The Midlands should have a dry bright Sunday but west Wales seeing some showery rain during the afternoon. Just the chance of an isolated shower over the west Midlands too this afternoon. Any remaining showers dying out overnight with clearing skies and a ground frost again, apart from SW Wales where it stays generally cloudy and damp. Clouding over for most parts Monday morning with a little drizzle in places, it may though brighten over the Midlands in the afternoon, but then a developing low moving into Ireland brings rain and freshening winds into west Wales late in the afternoon and the Midlands during Monday evening, the rain soon clearing overnight. During Tuesday one low is moving away over Scotland with the next approaching Ireland, so a between systems kind of day, plenty of cloud probably, though perhaps brighter for the Midlands. Mostly dry on Tuesday apart from some drizzle at times for west Wales. As with Monday another rather cool day maxima 12 to 14c.
    [attachment=141662:brack1 Mon night L brings rain through.gif]

    Wednesday to Thursday is a potentially very wet spell during which localised flooding will occur in some areas, although hard to pin details on exactly where and when the worst of the rain will fall. On Wednesday a fairly deep low is over or close to Ireland with some fresh to strong south to SW winds ahead of it. It looks as though there will be two main spells of rain, one early Wednesday and one late Wednesday into Thursday, some of this rain very heavy indeed, and although the timings are subject to change, some areas will receive over an inch with localised flooding. Even between the main rain areas there will be blustery showers. Wednesday and Thursday continue the cool theme, and where it stays wettest it will be especially cool and only reach 10 or 11c.
    [attachment=141663:brack2 LDL Ire rheavy rain potential Wed.gif][attachment=141664:brack2a L Ire rain wind Wed.gif][attachment=141665:Recm722 new L W Ire Wed wet windy.gif][attachment=141666:Rtavn904 wet Wed.png][attachment=141667:Rukm961wetvspell Wed to Thu.gif][attachment=141668:Recm1202 rain or showers Thu.gif]

    Friday still sees low pressure close by so further showers and possibly longer spells of rain, and temperatures a little below the mid October average, reaching 12 to 14c. Subtle differences in the pressure patterns next weekend, the lows look like being further west and allowing high pressure over the continent to influence our weather, so certainly looking milder for next weekend and perhaps even drier. West Wales still subject to weak fronts moving up bringing some rain or drizzle at times next weekend, but for the Midlands, with southerly winds, a much drier picture with temperatures perhaps nudging into the low 60's by next Sunday- a question mark as to whether west Wales will get this mild though? The warmer theme looks like continuing as we then near the end of October, so a good chance of hitting 60f even at Lampeter before the month end!
    [attachment=141670:Recm1442 showery Fri.gif][attachment=141671:Rtavn1321 cool unsettled Fri.png][attachment=141672:Recm1682 L W H E milder poss drier weekend.gif][attachment=141673:Rtavn1802 milder southerly flow drier weekend.png]
  21. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mixed; some rain, but dry spells too. temperatures around average[/b]

    This weekend's dry weather has been welcome, after rain falling on every day for almost 2 weeks here in west Wales. The Midlands on the other hand had a reasonably dry week until Thursday. A cool start to October, following on from the coolest September for almost 20 years. No real warmth again in the coming week, although as we progress through October we should not expect this really, as Summer rapidly recedes. Another week with rain at times, this though mostly for west Wales, with the Midlands having the better chance of dry days, at least up until Thursday. Wednesday is the most likely day to see widespread dry conditions across Wales and England.

    With high pressure over the UK Sunday stays fine and dry, after the early frost, just below zero here this morning. However a low pressure system is out to the south-west of Ireland (this containing the final vestiges of Nadine) so no frost tonight. The fronts from this low attempt to move into SW Britain during the early part of this week but do not make much headway against the relatively high pressure still over northern England. So cloud increasing overnight and some rain at times for west Wales after midnight, but staying dry for the Midlands. Fronts stuck over SW Britain through Monday, so a cloudy, cool day with rain or drizzle on and off, most of this probably being only light . Maxima just 11 to 13c. The far north of Wales and the north Midlands more likely to remain generally dry on Monday, so maybe escaping the rain in Bangor and Derby?
    [attachment=141258:brack0a fronts stuck over SW.gif][attachment=141259:Rtavn424 rain times cool Mon.png]

    Throughout Tuesday and Wednesday these same fronts are stuck more or less over SW England and south Wales, but with a ridge over northern, then eastern England it is anticipated that the fronts will for the most part be weak. Plenty of cloud during Tuesday and Wednesday for west Wales, a little rain or drizzle times, especially for SW Wales, with NW Wales more likely to stay dry for the most part. Likewise, the Midlands is just distant enough from the fronts to the SW to see a lot of dry weather through Tuesday and Wednesday, just the odd spot of rain really here. One proviso is that the fronts may pep up at times, or edge slightly further NE to bring some more widespread rain for a time perhaps? Temperatures close to the early October average reaching 13 or 14c for Tuesday and Wednesday, although with a better chance of brightness over the Midlands we could see 16c in places here. Frost very unlikely too with all the cloud about.
    [attachment=141260:brack1a still stuck SW R northern parts.gif][attachment=141261:Recm722 tr against R Tue to Wed.gif]

    Changes for Thursday as a deep low pressure over Iceland takes control. This sends a trough slowly east across the UK during Thursday and Friday, with rain spreading east through Thursday, and with west Wales in particular set for quite a wet, windy day. Still some brightness ahead of the rain for the Midlands, and with warmer upper atmosphere air, temperatures could get to 17c in places, although no higher than 15c for wetter west Wales.
    [attachment=141262:brack4 fronts and rain from W Thu.gif][attachment=141263:Recm962 Tr from W Thus brings rain across and milder air.gif][attachment=141264:Rtavn1204 wet Thu esp WW.png]

    This is the point where greater model uncertainty comes into play.The rain lingers into Thursday night, especially for the Midlands, but SHOULD be clear by Friday morning. Friday then a cooler day with sunny intervals and some showers, mainly over west Wales these. There is though the possibility that the trough develops a low close to eastern England during Friday, which could keep the rain going longer for the Midlands. Temperatures only 10 to 12c for Friday at best. All that can be said about next weekend is that one way or another the outcome appears unsettled with some further rain at times and most likely on the cool side.
    [attachment=141265:Recm1202 Tr over E by Fri.gif][attachment=141266:Rtavn1321 cool rain to few showers Fri.png][attachment=141267:Rtavn1441 lingering low Sat.png][attachment=141268:Rtavn1681 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=141269:Recm1682 unsettled weekend.gif]
  22. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mostly cool and unsettled, further rain or showers at times[/b]


    A cool, even very cool week gone, on both last Sunday and Tuesday temperatures stayed below 11c here at Llanwnnen, 6c below the late September average figure. A wet week too, many of us getting close to 2 inches of rain, although our areas much less affected than the parts of northern England and Wales which saw 4 to 6 inches and flooding. All this rain has still failed to bring us up to the monthly average of 4 inches for September here in Ceredigion, although it has done in Warwickshire where the mean is only just over 2 inches for the month. Another cool and unsettled week to come with rain or showers on most days, the best to hope for temperature wise is the early October average of 16 or 17c. Great uncertainty for next weekend which could be cool or warm, wet or dry!

    Mainly cloudy and quite windy through this afternoon and evening with some rain and drizzle on and off, more especially for west Wales, where some could turn quite heavy. Mostly dry after midnight, just a few showers coming into west Wales. Monday a breezy and quite cool day with sunny intervals and occasional showers, mainly in the west, with parts of the Midlands more likely remain dry. Maxima between 13 and 15c. For Tuesday, a complex low is sat to the south-east of Iceland with troughs and secondary systems crossing the UK from off the Atlantic. A very unsettled day with showers turning into longer spells of rain through the afternoon, some of this heavy. A fresh to strong south-west wind, and cool with highs of just 13c for west Wales and 15c at best for the Midlands on Tuesday afternoon, where there will at least be sunny spells before the rain.
    [attachment=140880:brack1a showers LSR windy Tue.gif][attachment=140881:Recm722 v unsettled cool mid week.gif]

    With a newly formed low crossing Scotland, Wednesday is a cool and breezy day with sunshine and showers. West Wales looks very prone to showers coming off the relatively warm Irish Sea throughout Wednesday, these being heavy with hail at times. Fewer showers getting through to the Midlands which will benefit from shelter from the Welsh hills, which will kill off most of the showers as they move east. A very cool day with all the showers for west Wales, perhaps no higher than 12c here, while with some decent sunny spells for the Midlands it should manage 14c.
    [attachment=140882:brack2a cool showery wed.gif][attachment=140883:Rtavn904 very showery WW Wed.png]

    Discrepancies have been showing in the model runs for Thursday onwards really in their outputs over the past few days. Once again it is ex hurricane Nadine that is partly responsible for this model variation. Yes, she is still alive and kicking out in the mid Atlantic west of the Azores! This time she decides to merge with a low system leaving Newfoundland off North America, with her energy impetus perhaps set to spread north-east towards the UK this next weekend? However, some of the latter model trends are indicating that the warm tropical energy of the Atlantic low complex remains out to our west, and instead a cool high pressure builds in over the UK in time for next weekend.
    [attachment=140884:brack4 merging Nadine Thu with energy to our SW.gif][attachment=140885:Recm1202 merging Nadine Fri.gif]

    Before this though, Thursday looks rather cool and showery, although a slight bump of relatively high pressure may limit showers compared to Wednesday. Friday looks like another cool and unsettled day with some further showers or longer spells of rain, as a small low system crosses either southern or eastern England. Perhaps a better chance of a dry afternoon for at least west Wales though? Temperatures poor for early October once more reaching just 12 to 14c.
    [attachment=140886:Recm1442 cool some showers Fri.gif]

    A tremendous amount of uncertainty then for the weekend, we either get a dry, coolish one, courtesy of high pressure building over the UK on Saturday, OR the energy of ex Nadine, perhaps by then to the west of Ireland, sweeps up from the south-west. This would mean some heavy rain from the trough introducing the tropical air during Saturday, but then a warm, sunny Sunday, with recent GFS output showing maxima of 22c for the Midlands next Sunday! We shall see, but reality probably lies somewhere between these two very different scenarios!
    [attachment=140889:Rukm1441 H Sat.gif][attachment=140887:Rtavn1501 uncertain Wend milder SW flow perhaps.png][attachment=140888:Recm1682 cool H Sat dry.gif][attachment=140890:Rtavn1802 warmth weekend rain to dry ta Nadine.png][attachment=140892:Rtavn18617 warm Sun GFS.png][attachment=140893:Recm1922 dry Sun warm air to SW.gif]
  23. TonyH
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][b]Headline: [/b][b]Cool a[/b][b]nd very unsettled: showers or longer spells of rain; windy to mid week.[/b][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]Last week's guide underestimated the showers that streamed off Cardigan Bay into Ceredigion from Monday to Wednesday and which gave a quarter of an inch of rain at Llanwnnen during this period. However other areas such as Warwickshire and Carmarthen saw very few showers and stayed mainly dry. A decidedly cool week, the highest reading being just 16c at Llanwnnen, very poor for September when it can still be much warmer than this. Many places saw a ground frost early on Saturday, even with the first air frost of the Autumn here at Llanwnnen, down to -1c - colder than any of the official Welsh weather stations![/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]As mentioned last week ex Hurricane Nadine is affecting our weather and will be partly responsible for the very wet week ahead. Coventry and Rugby have had only had 9mm rain so far this month, a figure that is set to rise quickly over the next few days. A deep low pressure, spawned from the warm, humid circulation of Nadine, out in the Atlantic west of Spain, is set to wander about the UK between Monday and Thursday bringing strong to gale force winds and spells of heavy rain, before eventually filling up in situ. A measure of the warm tropical air within this system is that parts of southern France are hitting 90 f today! [/font][font=verdana, sans-serif]The low pressure system born from this hot tropical air meeting the diving Jet Stream is currently over the Bay of Biscay, deepening and is headed our way, an awful lot of weather energy. [/font][font=verdana, sans-serif]No hot air getting this far north as we remain north of the Jet Stream, in fact another decidedly cool spell to come, with the low 60's the best we can hope for. Two to four inches of rain is modelled to fall over the next 4 days, with the highest totals likely for Wales, where localised flooding could be a problem, although at least the deluge is coming on the back of a dry spell.[/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140506:Rtavn16218 very wet week!.png][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]The cloud shield has already spread to most of England and Wales well ahead of the system, while the wind and rain is over southern parts on the first of a series of associated weather fronts set to move north today, tonight and through tomorrow. So a dull, windy afternoon and evening with rain soon spreading north, this becoming heavy at times and lasting through the evening. Very cool indeed today, temperatures only reaching 11 or 12 c ahead of the wet weather this afternoon. The exact track still somewhat unpredictable, but this deepening low set to move into southern England by Monday morning, so further spells of rain tonight and tomorrow morning, again heavy at times, and potentially some large totals-well in excess of an inch totting up by then. The low then gradually edges north through Monday which should see the worst of the rain clearing north with it, but some doubt over this. In any case a very cool, windy afternoon with showers or longer spells of rain, maxima just 12 to 14c. Interestingly by tomorrow afternoon our low will have merged with another low that has moved into the UK from the north-west so a double whammy of storms really tomorrow! No doubt that there will be gales in some regions from the low tonight and tomorrow, although at this stage it would seem that Wales and the Midlands are spared the worst of these with just typical strong Autumnal winds blowing off the leaves and twigs.[/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140504:brack0a DL E Eng Mon cool wet windy.gif][attachment=140505:Rtavn301 Mon DL Eng wet cool windy.png][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]The low then meanders south-west into Ireland for Tuesday which will be another very unsettled and windy day with showers or longer spells of rain, very heavy at times. At present Wales is modelled to have the worst of the rain on Tuesday with a further inch set to fall, however this may well change as we get nearer, but something to be aware of with respect to flooding possibilities on Tuesday. Cool again, and should the rain sit over Wales then maxima no higher than 12c here, while sunny intervals means a touch warmer for the Midlands up up 15c. Wednesday looking like another very disturbed day indeed with yet more showers or longer spells of rain, with the low now wandering about southern England. Wednesday then, the third successive day when heavy rains are expected to fall quite widely over Wales and the Midlands, and so further flooding prospects. Some of the showers could have hail and thunder too during Wednesday, and with less wind these storms could be slow- moving. Needless to say another mainly cloudy and cool day, although somewhat less cool than the start of the week. The kind of day when any sunny intervals just help the shower clouds to build up even more![/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140507:brack1a Tue DL Irish Sea showerr LSR cool windy.gif][attachment=140508:Rtavn601 DL Irish Sea Tue.png][attachment=140509:Rtavn6017 potrentially v cool wet Tue Wales.png][attachment=140510:brack2a DL south Wed very disturbed cool again.gif][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]At last, by Thursday our persistent low has filled up and is slowly edging away, so probably less in the way of heavy rain and showers, although far from being a dry day, still with occasional showers but also sunny intervals between. Temperatures closer to average up to 15 - 17c and with lighter winds again. An improvement of sorts. [/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140511:brack4 L away less showers cool.gif][attachment=140512:Recm1202 Thu L gets east fewer showers still cool.gif][/font]

    [font=verdana, sans-serif]Things may continue to improve somewhat into next weekend, although uncertainty abounds as usual. Some further rain or showers still likely during Friday and Saturday as a trough moves across, steadily this time from the west, so any rain clearing much more quickly. Although not exactly a fine, dry weekend, much less in the way of rain than the first part of this week, a chance to mop up! Feeling more pleasant in any sunny spells too, temperatures around the average for the end of September at 16 or 17c. Perversely, the beginning of October is looking warm and sunny! [/font]
    [font=verdana, sans-serif][attachment=140513:Rukm1441 COL Fri m dry few showers warmer.gif][attachment=140514:Rtavn1621 drier warmer weekend.png][/font]
  24. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry but quite cool; some rain weekend[/b]

    As anticipated rainfall amounts during the past week were small in spite of the rather unsettled weather pattern. Rainfall totals for the first half of September just.4mm for Coventry and 14mm here at Llanwnnen - so a very dry month to date (why not this during Summer!). Last weeks guide bore hope for a fine and warm spell from this weekend, however this has not really materialised (especially here in west Wales!). Weather forecasts during the Autumn can sometimes come a cropper as we are in the hurricane season, and once these powerful storms leave the Caribbean or US and curve east towards Europe, the extra energy injection can upset modelled weather patterns at relatively short notice. Hence our expected high pressure for this weekend being too far south-west for prolonged warm and sunny weather. This has been a very active hurricane season to date and during the past week two ex- hurricanes, Leslie and Michael have crossed the Atlantic disrupting the patterns as they do so. This week the next one called Nadine will also influence things, as a slow moving storm out in the Atlantic to the west of Spain by the end of the week, therefore the models somewhat all over the place at the moment regards later this week, although the overall picture suggests plenty of dry weather again but always on the cool side.


    Some sunny intervals on Sunday ahead of a weakening front coming over from the west. This front still with enough about it to give some rain and drizzle at times through this afternoon and early evening over west Wales. A largely dry and bright afternoon for the Midlands and up to 19c, then with a spot of rain and drizzle this evening. With high pressure to the south-west and low sat to the north-east Monday and Tuesday are quite similar days in terms of weather. The westerly breeze of Monday veers NW on Tuesday, both days rather cool with sunny intervals and just the odd scattered shower, but some places escaping these completely. Tuesday possibly the greatest chance of better sunny spells through the day as high pressure starts to ridge into west Wales. Quite a cool breeze on both Monday and Tuesday. Maxima only between 14 and 17c, so a cool feel for September.
    [attachment=139903:brack1a cool bright few showers Tue.gif][attachment=139906:Rtavn662 cool breezy Tue.png][attachment=139904:Recm722 H SW L NE Tue to Wed cool.gif]


    High pressure pushes into the south Wednesday which should be dry with sunny spells and a touch warmer, so reaching 16 to 19c. A clear cold night to follow, chance of a ground frost in places.
    [attachment=139905:brack2 R into SW Wed dry.gif][attachment=139907:Rtavn901 R south m dry Wed.png]

    As said, tropical storm Nadine is pounding the Azores later in the week and is set is to influence what happens to the weather here in the British Isles. and as such a great deal of uncertainty over what happens Thursday onwards, with very different model outputs prevailing. It seems at this stage that the high pressure will elongate to the west of Ireland while lows cross Scandinavia on Thursday. A cool north-west wind but mostly dry again for Thursday, just the chance of some rain edging down later in the day. Cool and quite windy with maxima just 13 to 15c. Anyone's guess really for Friday and the weekend, with some of the models going for high pressure and so dry weather to end the week, while the latest GFS output goes for low pressure domination with rain at times Thursday onwards and for the weekend. My stab would be to go with continuing the generally dry but rather cool theme through to the end of the week, but trending to unsettled through the weekend, with a more definite chance of rain and wind by Sunday. One thing that seems inevitable is that the final week of September is set to be very unsettled and wet!
    [attachment=139908:brack4 nadine with H west L east.gif][attachment=139909:Rtavn1141 GFS L dominates Thu.png][attachment=139909:Rtavn1141 GFS L dominates Thu.png][attachment=139912:Recm1442 H south Sat warmer dry.gif]
  25. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled with some rain at times, and often windy; cool to average temperatures. Fine prospects next weekend[/b]

    A virtually bone dry week just gone for a change, and a warm one too. Temperatures reached 25c in Warwickshire and 22c at Llanwnnen, very respectable levels now we are into September. Sunday is the day of changeover to cooler and more unsettled conditions that will predominate in the coming week. Occasional rain, although not with especially large amounts, along with some strong winds at times during this week ahead. Good prospects currently for next weekend.

    The warmth and sunshine is hanging on for one last day over the Midlands, temperatures up to 25c once more. However although fairly warm this morning, it is now cloudy and quite windy here in west Wales. After a lovely Sunday, it will cloud over by this evening for the Midlands but remain dry. For west Wales this afternoon, mostly cloudy and quite windy and some rain will spread over during the course of the afternoon and this evening, although probably not so heavy for most parts. Some mostly light rain at times for many places tonight, and a fairly warm night too with all the cloud. This rain is along a cold front attached to a deep low over Iceland, and we are still in this low's circulation during Monday. A generally dry day for the Midlands on Monday with sunny spells, and a dry morning for west Wales too. However, there is a second cold front slowly crossing Ireland which will bring some more rain into west Wales later in the afternoon and into the evening, and slow progress, but some of this rain getting into the Midlands too during Monday night. Temperatures close to the average on Monday reaching 18 to 20c in a moderate south-west breeze, so perhaps feeling quite pleasant for the Midlands tomorrow.
    [attachment=139663:brack0a second CF approaches.gif]

    With the cold front clear, Tuesday is a bright and breezy day with a few showers scattered about. Temperatures down so reaching just 15 to 18c, and feeling cool with a fresh westerly wind. More fronts come swiftly in off the Atlantic during Tuesday night bringing bands of rain, these lasting well into Wednesday, and this time some of the rain could be heavy, so this should be the wettest day of the week. It will also be quite windy and cool on Wednesday with temperatures of 18c at best.
    [attachment=139664:brack1a bright breezy cooler Tue.gif][attachment=139665:Rtavn602 cool breezy Tue.png][attachment=139666:brack2a succession of fronts Wed windy.gif][attachment=139667:Rtavn781 rain cool Wed.png]

    We are within the broad warm sector of the next and deep Atlantic low by Thursday morning, with high pressure over the Bay of Biscay having an influence. The Midlands may well have a mostly dry day with some warm sunny intervals developing, but cloudier for west Wales with a little rain or drizzle in places too. Temperatures reaching 18c or so for west Wales but up to 21c where it brightens over the Midlands on Thursday.This contrast is due to our being in a warm Tropical maritime airmass which commonly dries out after crossing the Welsh hills to give warm, bright weather for the Midlands, while west Wales often stays dull and damp. More general rain for all likely during Thursday night as the cold front comes through. This deep low then moves into Scandinavia during Friday, so more strong winds to come, but with any rain soon clearing to sunny intervals and showers, some of which will be heavy. With the north-west winds quite a cool day on Friday.
    [attachment=139668:Recm962 R Thu.gif][attachment=139670:Rukm961 Biscay H drier Thu.gif][attachment=139669:Rtavn1022 warm sector windy Thu.png][attachment=139671:Rtavn1261 DL Scand Fri showery.png]


    Next weekend is looking promising at this stage (a long way off!) for coinciding with a dry, bright and rather warm interlude. The ECM model even keeps high pressure in charge well into the following week, so Summer may not be quite done for yet! Should these (one models) charts come off then it will be very warm, well into the 70's f by a week Monday, we shall see?
    [attachment=139672:Rtavn1621 weekend H.png][attachment=139673:Recm1682 H south warm dry weekend prospect.gif]
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