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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells[/b]

    Some Summer...the wettest for 100 years for England and Wales overall -1912 being the wettest on record. Llanwnnen had a Summer rainfall total just short of 20 inches, so an exceptionally wet, dull and quite cool Summer. August has been the warmest month but this again tarnished by all the rain, over 6 inches falling at Llanwnnen. No spectacular heat all Summer really, Llanwnnen scraped 80f on the 10th August. Thunder occurred on just the 2 days over the Summer.
    As for the Midlands, similarly poor, although with a brief hot spell at the end of July, and somewhat drier during August, with rainfall close to average only, with 2 inches or so here, and for the Summer as a whole not as wet as 2007, which was the wettest on record at Coventry with over 14 inches falling, and marginally wetter than 1912.

    A very chilly night gave a ground frost for Friday morning here in west Wales, down to +2c here, although not quite as cold as the last day of August 2010 which dropped to +1c. Meteorological Autumn is here and so is the nice weather! No heatwave and not always sunny, but a generally fine and warm week ahead, and with hardly any rain. Depending on the positioning of the high there is a possibility that it could be very warm by the end of the week, bearing in mind that now we are into September even 20c is warm.

    Sunday is quite a warm day with some sunshine breaking through after the drizzle this morning. Monday will be warmer with sunny spells, although perhaps turning more cloudy late in the day for west Wales as a weak front move in, maxima 21 - 24c, warmest for the Midlands. The remains of Hurricane Kirk over Iceland brings strong winds and rain to Scotland for Monday night, although pressure stays high enough in the south, so we get no more than a spot of rain or drizzle. The weak cold front bringing the chance of rain clears during Tuesday morning, leaving a dry, bright day, although with a cooler, fresher feel, maxima between 18 and 21c. High pressure then moves in slowly from the Atlantic, so that Wednesday through to the weekend should be dry with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures on Wednesday around the average so reaching 18 - 20c, this after a chilly start. Wednesday night also looks like being a cool one, down to as low as 4c in places, so not quite a ground frost.
    [attachment=139437:brack1a fresher after cf Tue.gif][attachment=139438:Recm482 warm under R Mon.gif][attachment=139441:Rtavn662 dry fresher Tue.png][attachment=139439:brack2a cool H dry Wed.gif]

    The high is centred over Wales and England, or at least close by to the south-west by Thursday, and remains near even into next weekend. A dry and warm picture for the end of the week, and there should be decent sunny spells. Differences between the models on the positioning of the high, but should the high get to our east which the ECM suggests, then Friday and Saturday would turn out very warm and fairly sunny, maxima between 22 and 25c. The warm and dry weather could also last for Sunday too, although an Atlantic low perhaps closing in by then.
    [attachment=139442:brack4 warm sunny Thu.gif][attachment=139443:Recm962 H E and W Thu warm sunny.gif][attachment=139444:Rtavn1321 H just west Fri.png][attachment=139445:Rukm1441 fine and warm weekend.gif][attachment=139446:Recm1682 potentially very warm seekend.gif][attachment=139447:Rtavn1801 H still SW but dry fine weekend.png]
  2. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Rather cool, sometimes windy, rain or showers at times to Thursday. Dry and warm start to September[/b]

    A short drier interlude for a few days last week for most of us, although the Lampeter area did get heavier and more widespread showers on Tuesday than anticipated!. The Aberystwyth area had thunderstorms during Friday, but yet again these evaded the Llanwnnen area! The Midlands experienced heavy showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.. August is turning into another thoroughly wet month for west Wales, with well over 4 inches rainfall here at Llanwnnen, and still a few more days to go to tot up more. Further rain at times this week, sometimes windy, and fairly cool too, but drying up Friday with a warm weekend in prospect.


    Sunday is a bright dry day to make the most of before tomorrow's rain. Temperatures around the average reaching 19 - 21c. A deep low sat to the north-west of Ireland will bring rain and wind for Bank Holiday Monday (typical!). Rain arrives into west Wales early in the morning, with this then on and off well into the afternoon before it turns brighter with some showers. Some heavy and possibly thundery showers during Monday evening for west Wales. The rain will have reached the Midlands around lunchtime, and it stays cloudy with rain at times well into the evening here. A fresh to strong south-west wind. Quite a cool day given the cloud, wind and rain, temperatures reaching 17 - 20c at best.
    [attachment=139105:brack0a Mon DL rain and windfrom W.gif][attachment=139106:Rtavn364 rainy BHM.png][attachment=139108:Recm482 rain to showers BHM.gif]

    Tuesday is a bright and breezy day with sunny intervals and a few showers, most of these light. Temperatures around average. The next Atlantic low is dumb-belling towards Ireland about it's parent system bringing more rain into west Wales during Tuesday night. This band of rain moves through quite quickly and should have cleared west Wales by early Wednesday morning, while at the same time arriving in the Midlands. Sunny spells and showers, heavy at times, for west Wales throughout Wednesday, with the brighter, showery weather reaching the Midlands during the afternoon. Another rather cool day on Wednesday. The low pressure is moving away towards Scandinavia during Thursday and we are left with a cool north-west air- stream and plenty of showers, more especially for the Midlands. The showers perhaps dying down across west Wales during the day, with more in the way of sunny spells here as the afternoon goes on. A rather cool and breezy day temperatures only reaching 17 - 19c.
    [attachment=139107:brack1a bright breezy Tue.gif][attachment=139109:Recm962 rain to showers Wed.gif][attachment=139110:Rtavn781 dumb-belling L Ire rain to showers Wed.png][attachment=139111:brack4 Cool showery Thu.gif][attachment=139112:Rtavn1081 cool rather showery Thu.png]

    High pressure then takes over across at least southern Britain as we head into September! The ridge arrives Friday so a mostly dry day with sunny spells, however still on the cool side with a keen westerly breeze, temperatures not reaching 20c. High pressure is then centred over or close to southern England during next weekend. So, next weekend and into the start of September is looking dry and warm with sunny spells, an ideal opportunity to get to the beach before Autumn proper arrives!
    [attachment=139113:Rukm1441 dry R Fri Sat.gif][attachment=139114:Recm1442 Sat H south dry q warm.gif][attachment=139115:Rtavn1621 H south Sat.png][attachment=139116:Recm1682 strong warm H weekend.gif][attachment=139117:Rtavn18617 warm dry Sunday.png]
  3. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Often dry and quite warm; unsettled and cooler with rain at times for the Bank Holiday weekend[/b]
    August has so far proven a rather warm but unsettled month, a vast improvement on the first half of Summer! During the past week Llanwnnen has received almost 2 inches of rain and it's pouring this morning, so a wet week. This weekend has been warm but nothing compared with South-east England which reached 32c on Saturday - the hottest of the Summer so far. Sunday will be equally hot for the south-east, and very warm for the Midlands with some more sunshine before possible storms arrive. A fairly dry week ahead and often quite warm, but with the prospect of spells of rain and blustery showers over the August Bank holiday weekend.

    A waving trough is giving the heavy rain over Wales today, while the Midlands is very warm with some sunny spells. Chance of some thunderstorms for the Midlands later this afternoon or this evening. The rain will have cleared west Wales by this evening, with a dry night to follow.

    With low pressure anchored well to the north-west of Ireland early in the coming week and with pressure fairly high over southern Britain, Monday and Tuesday will be generally dry and bright, with just a few showers developing, more especially over west Wales, but quite a few places escaping these altogether. There is the chance of a longer spell of light rain moving east on Tuesday afternoon, but some doubt over this. Pleasant sunny spells and on the warm side for the end of Summer, maxima between 20 and 23c for both Monday and Tuesday.
    [attachment=138715:brack0a mostly dry R Mon.gif][attachment=138716:brack1a possible lsr Tue pm.gif]

    Wednesday a touch cooler and breezy, but still mostly dry but more in the way of cloud, and just the odd light shower in places. A little bump of high pressure gives a dry and quite warm day Thursday with decent sunny spells, temperatures into the low 70's f for many. The mostly dry weather hanging on into Friday for the Midlands, but the next low is slowly approaching Ireland bringing rain into west Wales during the day, although perhaps not until late on. Friday may well be a warm and quite humid day temperatures reaching 22 to 24c, where the rain holds off that is!
    [attachment=138717:Recm722 touch cooler breezy few showers Wed.gif][attachment=138718:Rtavn842 cooler breezy Wed.png][attachment=138719:brack4 dry bright warm Thu.gif][attachment=138720:Rtavn1082 just about dry Thu.png][attachment=138721:Recm1202 low rain to west Fri.gif][attachment=138722:Rtavn1264 rain from west Fri.png][attachment=138723:Rtavn1322 turning unsettled Fri.png]

    This low pressure is over the UK next weekend with showers or longer spells of rain affecting all parts, some of these heavy. The Bank Holiday weekend looks rather cool and windy, with temperatures unlikely to better 21c. Yet another low may well spoil Bank Holiday Monday with further rain and perhaps strong winds. All in all quite an Autumnal look to the end of August.
    [attachment=138724:Rtavn1681 rather cool unsettled weekend.png][attachment=138725:Recm1682 rain and showers weekend.gif]
  4. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled, rain and showers, heavy at times, with warm, drier intervals between[/b]

    A mostly dry and warm week just gone, Llanwnnen reached 80f on Friday. Flashes of lightning here last night , but the thunderstorms stayed in the distance. A good dose of rain to come this week, especially for west Wales, but with warm, sunny intervals between times, these more likely for the Midlands. However, dry days at a premium in the coming week.

    A rather warm and humid Sunday afternoon, with some showers, and thunder possible for parts of the Midlands too. Low pressure is approaching the south- west of Ireland tonight bringing rain into west Wales. Further rain at times on Monday morning for Wales, this moving east into the Midlands in the afternoon. Brighter with some showers about for Wales in the afternoon, and eventually brightening over the Midlands too. Temperatures near the August average reaching 20 - 22c.
    [attachment=138251:brack0a (1) Mon rain to some showers.gif]

    A complex area of low pressure to our west then controls the weather throughout the rest of the coming week. At least this means generally southerly winds and so not a cool week. However plenty of rain and showers to come, especially for the west. Tuesday is a straightforward mix of sunshine and showers, these heavy in places, but some places missing them altogether. A warm front brings some drizzle and a warm sticky night to follow. Quite a deep low develops over Ireland on Wednesday which could well turn out a wet and windy day, some quite large rainfall totals possible for west Wales. Temperatures suppressed where it stays wet, no higher than 20c, but warm and humid should it brighten over the Midlands. Another day of sunshine and showers for Thursday, these widespread and very heavy in places, with some thunderstorms about too. Temperatures again around average.
    [attachment=138252:brack2a DL wet windy Wed.gif][attachment=138253:Recm962 DL Ire wet windy Wed.gif][attachment=138254:Rtavn841 DL S Ire Wed.png][attachment=138255:brack4 showery breezy Thu.gif][attachment=138256:Rtavn1022 unsettled windy Thu.png]

    During Friday we get another push of warm and humid air across the UK, with some further rain at times, especially once more for west Wales, and perhaps thundery in nature? A rather warm, humid day into the low 70's f. Next weekend also looking warm but unsettled, further rain or showers for many of us.
    [attachment=138257:Rtavn1322 warm push Fri some rain esp west.png][attachment=138258:Recm1442 warm plume Fri.gif][attachment=138259:Rtavn15617 poss warm plume weekend.png][attachment=138260:Recm1682 warm unsettled weekend.gif]
  5. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Becoming warm, then even quite hot; mostly dry after Tuesday[/b]

    Although we have all seen quite a few showers in the past week, there has also been some decent dry and sunny spells between times, and with the temperatures close to the Summer average, feeling quite pleasant. Coventry and Rugby have, as is usual, experienced thunder with the showers over recent days, while here at Llanwnnen, no such luck, in fact I have not heard thunder since July 2011, quite a storm drought that!

    Rather unsettled with some further rain or showers early this week. High pressure then brings mostly dry and eventually very warm conditions from mid week onwards, 80f is a fair bet for many of us by the time we have reached the weekend. Chance of a thundery breakdown next weekend (hopefully affecting west Wales).

    More heavy showers this afternoon for most of us, again with some thunderstorms developing, though probably not over the part of Carmarthenshire where I shall be! The low that has kept us unsettled for much of the past week, is edging away into the North Sea on Monday, but still close enough for some further heavy showers in places, more especially the Midlands. Little respite before the next troughs encroach from the Atlantic during Tuesday bringing patchy rain and drizzle into west Wales during the afternoon, and later onto the Midlands. Temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday near the August average so reaching 19 - 21c. If skies clear then a chilly August night to follow for Tuesday.
    [attachment=137895:brack1a some rain pm Tue.gif][attachment=137896:Rukm601 iffy Tue.gif][attachment=137897:Rtavn664 patchy rain Tue.png]

    Pressure is building mid week, although still with weak fronts trapped with the high that is over the UK by Wednesday. So a mostly dry day, with sunny spells developing, and becoming quite warm, into the low 70's f. Just the outside chance of an isolated afternoon shower for one or two places. A nice strong warm high then sits over us on Thursday, with good sunny spells, and temperatures reaching 23 to 25c. The high is still present for Friday and even Saturday, edging into the North Sea by then. Very warm air is advected up over the UK from the near Continent. Friday then, very warm and mostly sunny, temperatures around 27c or 80f.
    [attachment=137899:brack4 Warm dry Thu.gif][attachment=137900:Rukm961 nice H Thu.gif][attachment=137901:Rtavn1142 v warm sunny Thu.png][attachment=137902:Rukm1441 v warm sunny Fri to Sat.gif][attachment=137902:Rukm1441 v warm sunny Fri to Sat.gif]


    Saturday could potentially be even hotter with plenty of hazy sunshine, and would be a humid sticky day, temperatures perhaps reaching 28 to 30c! However there is still some doubt as to how long the high, and therefore the heat will hang on for. A breakdown to cooler more unsettled weather will occur during next weekend, although perhaps not until later Saturday or even Sunday. Whether the upcoming warm spell goes out with a bang or a whimper next weekend is still very much up for debate, but I am hoping for the former!
    [attachment=137903:Recm1442 Hot humid Sat.gif][attachment=137904:Rtavn1562 heat potential Sat.png]
  6. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled with rain or showers at times; around average temperatures[/b]


    Summer arrived last week with temperatures into the low 80's for the Midlands, and completely dry for most of us until this weekend's showers, however even these have only produced a tiny 0.3mm here at Llanwnnen. We are now firmly back into a cooler, unsettled weather regime which is set to last well into the first half of August. The low 70's f will be the highest readings during the coming week, with rain or showers on most days too. Low pressure sticks close to Ireland and then Scotland from mid week onwards.

    Monday will have sunny intervals with only a scattering of showers, so some places missing these. A cool day temperatures no higher than 18c. Low pressure systems are queuing up in the Atlantic to bring some rain into Wales during Monday night. A mostly cloudy damp day for Tuesday, some of the rain could be quite heavy for west Wales first thing, but turning lighter and more drizzly later on. More wet weather for Tuesday night, especially for west Wales again, and a windy night too, but a mild, humid night.
    [attachment=137591:brack1 rain drizzle Tue.gif]

    A rather deep Summer low sits close to Ireland on Wednesday, so showers or longer spells of rain for all of us,some heavy, with a chance of thunder. Some sunny intervals too for Wednesday, but with a fresh to strong southerly wind. Temperatures around average at 20 - 23c, warmest for the Midlands. This low then does not move far for the rest of the week, just edging in a little closer to be centred over Ireland or Scotland This means sunny intervals and showers, some heavy and possibly thundery. It will be breezy but at least with the wind from the south or south-west, it will feel pleasantly warm in the sunny intervals, temperatures reaching between 19c and 22c, and no doubt some places missing the worst of the showers as is usual in such set ups.
    [attachment=137592:brack2 showers or LSR windy Wed.gif][attachment=137593:Rtavn722 very unsettled Wed.png][attachment=137594:Recm1202 or L Scotland.gif][attachment=137595:Rtavn1201 L close by.png][attachment=137596:Rukm1201 L over Ire showery mild Fri.gif]

    And into next weekend, low pressure still dominating, but not as deep by then, so perhaps fewer showers and longer dry and sunny spells between times. Temperatures a touch cooler reaching just below the early August average, so 19 to 21c at best
    [attachment=137597:Recm1442 rather unsettled weekend.gif]
  7. TonyH
    [b][b]Headline: Warm and mostly dry until late in the week[/b][/b]

    April to July 2012 has already been the wettest such period in the 250 year England and Wales rainfall series, with an average of almost 20 inches falling in these soggy four months! At long last we are experiencing proper Summer weather with warm sunshine and dry days! It looks like the week ahead will turn even warmer with sunny spells and will be quite humid. Generally dry until Friday (start of the Olympics!) when it becomes cooler and unsettled.

    Sunday is turning out surprisingly sunny and warm here in west Wales, but cloud cover should arrive at some stage during this afternoon, and even with a little drizzle for this evening. A dry and mostly sunny Sunday for the Midlands. We have a stand off between a ridge of high pressure over the south, and weak fronts straggling down from a deep Icelandic low, for the start of this week. What this means is a warm first half of the week, in fact becoming very warm for the MIdlands in particular, with decent sunny spells here. For west Wales during Monday and Tuesday there is the legacy of weak fronts over or close by to us, so that cloud may prove more of a headache here, perhaps even with some drizzle in places on Monday. Let's hope that the strong July sunshine burns through this and we join the Midlands with the warm, fairly sunny weather! Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday up to a very warm 25c for the Midlands, and even if west Wales ends up cloudier, still into the low 20's here, so feeling warm and humid.
    [attachment=137330:brack0a warm dry mon.gif][attachment=137331:Rtavn421 R against front warm m dry.png][attachment=137332:Recm482 R kills off front Mon and Tue.gif]

    Pressure is slack and winds very light for Wednesday, we continue to be in the warm humid air mass, however the straggling front may pep up and provide us with a few heavy showers in the afternoon, but most of us will stay dry and warm with sunny spells, temperatures reaching 23 - 26c. A warm, uncomfortable night to follow. Thursday is the last of the warm to very warm days, perhaps the warmest, 27c is possible for the Midlands - the highest readings since May. Again the warmth may set off a few afternoon downpours for some areas, but generally another dry day.
    [attachment=137333:brack2a slack Wed few showers warm.gif][attachment=137334:Recm722 slack Wed few showers.gif][attachment=137335:Rtavn9017 very warm Wed.png][attachment=137336:brack4 Thu very warm threatens unsettled.gif][attachment=137337:Recm1202 hinting unsettled and cooler Fri.gif]

    For Friday things turn unsettled and cool off. High pressure is now based out in the Atlantic, while low pressure orientates from the near Continent to Scandinavia. This drags down cooler north-easterly winds by the end of Friday, and the Continental low threatens thundery rain or showers, more especially for the Midlands later on Friday. However, on the whole, still quite a warm day with some sunny intervals. A cool unsettled weekend to follow with low pressure close by, some heavy, perhaps thundery showers for many places too. Temperatures by then failing to reach 20c once more. So a relatively short- lived taste of Summer this week!
    [attachment=137338:Rtavn1381 Continental L showers FRi.png][attachment=137339:Recm1442 cooler unsettled FRi.gif][attachment=137340:Rukm1441 cooler unsettled Saturday.gif]
  8. TonyH
    [b][b]Headline: Unsettled, more rain or showers at times, could be a dry weekend, quite cool.[/b][/b]

    Another very unsettled and sometimes wet week just gone. For the Midlands it is turning into another very wet month, with over 3 inches already at Coventry, which is a little more than has fallen in usually wetter west wales. When the sunny intervals come along they feel warmer than they actually are, the highest reading of the week was just 19c here at Llanwnnen, which is barely up to the July average. Another unsettled week to come, perhaps not the really heavy rains of Summer thus far, and the promise of a largely dry end to the week and which should last into the weekend.

    Monday will be a mostly cloudy, cool and rather windy day with rain or drizzle at times, some of this quite heavy in places. During Tuesday a warm front moves across introducing rather warm and humid air. Plenty of cloud for many parts, with a little light rain or drizzle, mainly for west Wales, it may well brighten in the Midlands in the afternoon which would see temperatures into the low 70's f or around 22c. A brisk south-west wind for Tuesday.
    [attachment=137038:brack0 Mon rain.gif][attachment=137039:brack1 warm sector Tue.gif][attachment=137040:Recm482 warm sector Tue.gif][attachment=137041:Rtavn5417 warmest day Tue.png]

    Low pressure crosses northern Britain on Wednesday with the associated fronts affecting Wales and the Midlands. A spell of rain for west wales in the morning and then for the Midlands in the afternoon, clearing to sunny intervals and showers, some heavy. Temperatures rather below the July average reaching 18 to 20c. More wet weather overnight Wednesday, which may prove enough for flooding over parts of Wales. A rather cool and showery day Thursday, these heavy with thunder in places, especially over the Midlands. Temperatures reaching just 18 to 20c again
    [attachment=137042:brack3 rain or showers Wed windy.gif][attachment=137043:Rtavn721 rain and showers cool Wed.png][attachment=137044:Recm962 cool showery Thu.gif][attachment=137045:Rtavn10217 cool showery Thu.png]

    A ridge of high pressure moves in from the west killiing off most of the showers, so Friday a mostly dry and bright day, if not especially warm, a gentle north-west breeze, and temperatures 19c at best. A chilly July night to follow, down as low as 5c in the countryside. The models were showing it to turn unsettled again over next weekend, however things are now showing signs of improving, so that the high pressure holds ground for Saturday at least. Hopefully then, another mostly dry day for Saturday, although temperatures still no great shakes, as we will be in a gentle but cool northerly drift of air. This cool air mass means another very cool night, perhaps a touch lower than on Friday night, as low as 4c and even with a touch of ground frost in favoured cold hollows first thing on Sunday- this is a long way off though. Still a ridge over the south for Sunday, but with a warm front bringing cloud and perhaps a little rain later, although this could stay a generally dry day too!
    [attachment=137046:Rtavn1261 R Fri mostly dry.png][attachment=137047:Rukm1441 R just about dry Sat.gif][attachment=137048:Rtavn1501 dry fine Sat.png][attachment=137049:Recm1442 dry fine Sat.gif][attachment=137050:Recm1682 dry weekend poss.gif]
    The Jet Stream is finally moving away north for late July for a long awaited taste of Summer!
  9. TonyH
    [b]Cool and very unsettled, further showers or longer spells of rain at times[/b]

    A couple of warmish days last week, still nothing especially warm yet this summer though. Rugby has already had more rain this year than in the whole of 2011. Long range models showing little sign of improvement, and almost certainly no proper dry, warm and sunny spell before the end of July, in fact it's shaping up to be as exceptionally wet as was June. As for the coming week, we will be lucky indeed to reach 70f at best or to get one completely dry day! It has rained on each day for the past 2 weeks here at Llanwnnen.

    The low that has hung around for so many days, giving severe flooding to various parts of the UK, is finally heading off to Scandinavia. However, we are still within it's circulation until this Wednesday, with a cool north to north-west flow, it's origins up in the Arctic. There will be some pleasant sunny intervals at times early in the week, but with a noticeably cooler feel compared with this weekend. Still showers knocking about, these heavy with thunder in places, and even the chance of longer spells of rain at times too, these most likely later on Tuesday. Disappointing temperatures with the cloud and showers, maxima between 16 and 19c on Monday and Tuesday, then even cooler for Wednesday reaching just 15 to 17c at best. A cool north-west breeze for Wednesday especially.
    [attachment=136701:brack1 cool rather showery early week.gif][attachment=136703:Rtavn602 cool showers or rain tue.png][attachment=136704:Recm722 very cool wed rain showers.gif][attachment=136705:Rtavn9017 v cool Wed.png]


    It was looking as though a brief ridge of high pressure could give a dry interlude Wednesday into Thursday, but that chance has now all but disappeared, with any ridging immediately squeezed out by the next low coming in off the Atlantic. What this attempt at a ridge may do though is clear skies and give a chilly July night, temperatures down as low as 6c in the countryside. It may be a dry bright start on Thursday, at least for the Midlands, but cloud and rain soon spreads over to give quite a cool and wet day. This low is out over the North Sea by Friday, so a return to sunny intervals and showers, along with a cool west to north-west breeze. Some heavy and perhaps thundery downpours about for Friday, even merging into longer spells of rain.
    [attachment=136706:brack4 briefest ridge early Thu to rain.gif][attachment=136707:Rtavn962 R squeezed out.png][attachment=136708:Rtavn10217 chilly night Wed.png][attachment=136709:Recm1202 nxt L rain thu to fri.gif][attachment=136710:Rtavn1144 wet Thu.png]

    No respite next weekend, yes, there will be sunny intervals during which it feels quite warm, it is July after all, however still showers or longer spells of rain for most places, and no doubt with the ground as waterlogged as it could ever be in Summer, more flooding for various parts of the UK. We also remain on the cool side of the Jet Stream, and so 20c is the highest reading we would be likely to see.
    [attachment=136711:Recm1682 same old...next weekend.gif][attachment=136712:Rtavn1682 cool unsettled next weekend.png]
  10. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled again; further rain and heavy showers at times, localised flooding mid week onwards, often quite cool[/b]

    June did manage to enter the records books as the wettest ever for England and Wales overall. Final totals:


    Llanwnnen, Lampeter 218mm = probably the wettest ever June locally
    Coventry, Bablake School over 140mm = not as wet as June 2007, but still well over twice the average

    Severe thunderstorms affected parts of the Midlands on Thursday, with hailstones of up to three and a half inches diameter at Hinckley, Leicestershire, causing a lot of damage to cars and greenhouses - these were more akin to the super cells of the Mid-west! Parts of the Midlands had over an inch of rain fall in a couple of hours and resultant severe flooding, and there were tornadoes too. Nothing so dramatic for west Wales last week, where it has been the least wet week (I won't go as far as saying 'driest') since late May.

    The unsettled, low pressure dominated theme continues relentlessly into July, next a slack low pressure takes up residence over the UK with further spells of rain and torrential downpours, so more localised flooding will occur. This feature is known as a 'cut off' low in weather buff circles, as it has became detached from the main jet stream, and due to areas of high pressure surrounding it, has nowhere really to go and so will be stuck over us! Some pleasant sunny intervals between times, and more especially later in the week, but never particularly warm.

    Fronts from the next Atlantic system (and what will become our cut off low) already crossing Wales and England tonight with rain and drizzle at times, this lasting into Monday. A rather cloudy damp day, but perhaps brightening in places in the afternoon. Rather cool, maxima below 19c. Yet more fronts winding around the low that is edging towards Ireland on Tuesday, and which is looking like a thoroughly cool, wet and windy day. Some heavy rain about, especially for west Wales, and later the MIdlands. Another very unsettled day on Wednesday, and although more showery in nature, there will be some longer spells of rain in places too. At least some sunny intervals by Wednesday, although temperatures struggling to reach the July average of 19 to 21c.
    [attachment=136229:brack0a unsettled Mon.gif][attachment=136230:brack1a rain wind cool Tues.gif][attachment=136232:Rtavn604 rather wet Tueday.png][attachment=136231:brack2a rain showers Wed.gif][attachment=136233:Recm722 rain showers mid week.gif]

    Little change by Thursday, with the low likely to be slow moving over Ireland by this stage, so further heavy showers and longer spells of rain. Some places could well be seeing large rainfall totals building up once more, so expect floods to be featuring on the news again later in the week. On the cool side still too, with the wind coming around the low from the south- west and off the Atlantic. Late on Wednesday and Thursday could well see strong winds developing over the south- west of Wales too, so thoroughly unpleasant down there at times this week.
    [attachment=136234:brack4 more rain showers Thu.gif]

    Now for the end of the week, the models have been positioning the low variously over recent days, but the overall theme is for this same low system to be cut off over the UK even into next weekend. Odds seems to be that it will be sat over Wales and England next Friday and Saturday, so lighter winds by then, but this brings the problem of slow moving downpours developing within the low, and with thunderstorms again in places, therefore the risk of further localised flooding. At least with the lighter winds and sunny intervals between showers, a touch warmer, perhaps reaching 21c or 22c, especially for the Midlands, unless you happen to be stuck under persistent showers that is.
    [attachment=136235:Recm1202 slack L SW Eng fri slow moving showers.gif][attachment=136236:Rtavn1321 further N perhaps.png][attachment=136237:Rukm1441 L over E and W next weekend slow moving showers.gif][attachment=136238:Recm1682 still there sunday.gif][attachment=136239:Rtavn1801 slack L UK Sun showery.png]
  11. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled again; drier early week, rain and showers later. Warm and humid blip mid week.[/b]

    April to June 2012 has already been the wettest ever for this three month period (records back to 1766) for England and Wales overall. June itself may fall a little short of being the wettest ever, although it is up there with the wettest June's for many places. Llanwnnen is currently on 198mm (8 inches), while Coventry has had 128mm so far.

    In spite of a mainly dry, bright start to last week, the rains returned from Wednesday night, although with not quite as much as in recent excessively wet weeks. There has been an unfortunate lack of light and sunshine for this, the period of greatest day length, along with consistently cool temperatures, giving more of an Autumnal feel. Fields are permanently waterlogged, and rivers in spate as though it were Winter!

    Perhaps a slight improvement in the weather again this week, better temperatures, even with a touch of warmth for a short while in the middle of the week, and a drying out process to mid week too, but the rain and showers are set to return, as low pressure is never far away from the British Isles, what with the Jet Stream continuing to be displaced to these low latitudes. Yet again, a week with the true arrival of Summer delayed. Chance of a thunderstorm in parts (most likely for the Midlands) during Thursday as the upcoming warm blip gives way.

    Sunday afternoon is turning out mostly dry and bright with just a few showers dotted about. Monday too should be a generally dry and bright day and with light winds, temperatures close to average at 19-21c. During this first half of the week high pressure over France attempts to take control, but is not strong enough to prevent fronts moving across England and Wales that are connected to a low sat out on the Atlantic, well west of Ireland. The first of these weakish fronts brings more cloud for Tuesday and even a little rain and drizzle for Wales, but it should remain dry for the Midlands, and feeling quite warm again here. The next and warm front moves up on Tuesday night which introduces some warm, humid Tropical southerly air to Wales and England for the mid week period. After a warm sticky night, and some further rain for Wales for a while into early Wednesday, the day then brightens up with warm, sunny spells for many of us. Most parts then become dry with some sunshine Wednesday afternoon and just the chance of a few thundery showers about by the evening. Temperatures reaching 22 to 24c.
    [attachment=135779:Rtavn601 H France L Atl Tue.png][attachment=135778:brack2 weak fronts warmer air Wed.gif][attachment=135780:brack2a warm humid Wed.gif][attachment=135781:Recm722 H France L Atl warm air arrives Wed.gif]

    The low west of Ireland then pushes towards us during Thursday as the Continental high gives way, and with even warmer upper atmospheric air ahead of this, there is the potential for some heavy downpours and thunderstorms in places during Thursday. Probably too much cloud and general rain about for west Wales to appreciate the warm upper air temperatures, but the Midlands should see some sunny intervals and maxima as high as 25c perhaps, this warmth in turn triggering heavy downpours and thunderstorms for the latter part of the day. Perhaps no warmer than 22c though for cloudier west Wales. So a fair chance of a thunderstorm for the MIdlands by Thursday evening for those of us who appreciate such displays of nature. Meanwhile the real heat is over the south of France where 100F (38c) looks likely next Thursday!
    [attachment=135782:brack4 turning thundery or wet Thur.gif][attachment=135783:Recm962 warm humid thundery potential Thu.gif][attachment=135784:Rtavn1022 thundery thu poss.png][attachment=135785:Rtavn1084 rain poss storms Thu pm.png][attachment=135786:Rtavn10817 100f S France.png]

    The low is over northern Britain on Friday, so the winds have turned south-west with cooler Atlantic air once more, a day of sunny spells and showers. Temperatures down to near normal at around 19 or 20c with quite strong winds. As we reach July, next Sunday, unfortunately still no sign of Summer proper, with a rather cool and showery air-stream over the UK for next weekend.
    [attachment=135787:Rtavn1262 fresher showery Fri.png][attachment=135788:Recm1442 cooler showery weekend.gif][attachment=135789:Rtavn1741 unsettled cool showery weekend.png]
  12. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Drier than of late, still some showers; rather warm mid week. Unsettled end to week.[/b]

    A slight respite from the cool, wet weather for a few days last week, particularly for west Wales. During Tuesday and Wednesday, we enjoyed some warm sunny spells raising temperatures to an average 19c. There were, however, very heavy showers about on these days too, but Llanwnnen missed the worst of these. I experienced a torrential shower just 2 miles from home on Tuesday afternoon, and another even heavier downpour in Carmarthen on Wednesday afternoon, but my rain gauge measured only around 1mm on each of these days. This shows how variable rainfall is in showery set ups.


    The rains were heavy and widespread again for the latter part of the week, especially for Wales, and as I type it has rained for most of the past 48 hours, with well over 2 inches (55mm) having fallen on my garden since Thursday afternoon. We are only half way through June, and it's already one of the wettest on record for west Wales, with 140mm having fallen on Llanwnnen. Not so far off the wettest June here which was 186mm in 2007, so 2012 is almost certain to take that particular crown here in Ceredigion. At least no repeat of the severe flooding of last weekend, with the Aberystwyth area escaping the worst of it this time. A very wet month in the MIdlands also, almost 4 inches so far for Coventry.

    A rather changeable week ahead, but also with decent dry spells. In any sunny spells it will feel quite warm, so an improvement on what June has given us thus far, but that is not saying anything!

    The deep low pressure that has brought all this rain and wind these past 48 hours has finally exited the UK into the North Sea by Sunday morning. We then spend several day's in a No Man's Land of atmospheric pressure, which is slack, and neither particularly high nor low. This is the kind of complicated set up where almost anything can happen, so don't be surprised to experience some warm sunshine early to mid next week, but also some heavy showers again. Up until Wednesday, neither low nor high pressure really wins out, so uncertainty with the actual weather this set up will produce?

    Just a few showers still about on Sunday, and a small low feature may develop enough to bring rain to southern parts on Sunday night, but for most a much drier spell ahead. Plenty of mostly dry weather should sum up Sunday to Wednesday then, but with scattered showers, some heavy, affecting most places sooner or later, but probably no prolonged spells of rain, although these can sometimes develop at short notice from such situations. Temperatures gradually improving and feeling warm in the sunny spells mid week. Still on the cool side though for Sunday and Monday, maxima just 16 to 19c. A touch warmer though for Tuesday and Wednesday, into the low 20's for many, especially in the MIdlands. Some chilly nights coming up though, but probably not quite cold enough for ground frosts.
    [attachment=135469:brack1a No Mans Land Mon.gif] [attachment=135470:Recm722 NML Tue few showers.gif] [attachment=135471:brack3 L winning Tue.gif] [attachment=135472:Rtavn781 slack showers Tue.png] [attachment=135473:brack4 H winning Wed.gif]

    A great deal of uncertainty in the models for what follows a fairly uncertain period in any case! It looks as though, for a while at least, a more definite unsettled theme takes over, as low pressure closes in on north-western UK. More rain and showers look likely for Thursday and Friday, and it turns cooler and breezy once more. However some signs in two of the main models of high pressure over the UK next weekend, which would mean a fine, warm interlude. Don't count on this yet though...the ECM model paints a very unsettled picture for next Friday and the weekend, with low pressure firmly in control again. The jury is then still out for next weekend!
    [attachment=135474:Rtavn1261 L NW of Ire Thu rain later.png] [attachment=135475:Recm1442 L Ire FRi more rain showers cool.gif] [attachment=135476:Rukm1441 H building Fri poss.gif] [attachment=135477:Rtavn1741 H Sat optimistic.png] [attachment=135478:Recm1922 unsettled next weekend and cool.gif]
  13. TonyH
    [b]
    [b]Headline: Very unsettled, plenty more rain, more flooding prospects. Cool.[/b][/b]

    With just over a week of June gone most places in west Wales and the central MIdlands have already reached or exceeded the average June rainfall for the whole month. The Midlands had well over an inch last weekend, while Llanwnnen had over 2 inches falling over Thursday and Friday. These amounts, however, pale into insignificance compared with the amounts that fell over north Ceredigion and around Machynlleth causing the almost unprecedented flooding. The official Met Office weather site at Trawsgoed, near Aberystwyth, recorded over 80mm on Friday alone, so a month's rain in a single day! Radar accumulations suggest double this amount over the higher ground north- east of Aberystwyth and around the Dovey estuary. Hopefully, a rainfall event of this magnitude will not recur for many decades in that area!

    Some notably cool weather too for the start of June, Coventry had one of it's coldest June days on record last Sunday, a maximum of just 11c, while during Friday afternoon, Llanwnnen did not get above 11c either.

    Although a bit of a respite from the really heavy rain for a few days, we will see more heavy rain and showers this week, and there is the potential for another deluge later in the week, one to watch developments on ... but at this stage it's really not looking that good with further flooding likely.

    A rather cool and showery set up until the middle of the coming week, with longer spells of rain in places. A little low is running up the English Channel during Sunday, with some showery rain for many parts, and the south Midlands getting some more general rain later today and tonight from this low. Showers for Monday, mostly for the Midlands, and poor temperatures for Summer, struggling to reach 16c. During Tuesday another little low feature is set to develop over Wales, and so enhancing the rain and showers here, meaning wetter in the west for Tuesday, but perhaps a drier interlude for the Midlands. Unfortunately this low sticks over Wales through into Wednesday, so the potential for some large rainfall totals again here in places yet again. Temperatures will be suppressed on Tuesday and Wednesday where it is cloudy and wet, no higher than 14c, but given any sunny intervals a more respectable 19c could be reached for the more fortunate.
    [attachment=135254:Recm482 cool showery mon and tue.gif] [attachment=135255:Rtavn602 showery mostly cool Tue.png] [attachment=135256:brack2a small L Wales Wed.gif] [attachment=135257:Rtavn841 stubborn little feature over Wales perhaps wet again.png]

    Rainfall and flooding wise - even worse prospects for the end of the week. Another deep Atlantic low is slowly approaching later on Thursday, and this is set to gradually cross England and Wales during Friday and Saturday. Large rainfall totals are being modelled from this for Friday especially, easily an inch or more widely, and some areas could get a lot more unfortunately. These type of systems, such as we saw last week, and that is expected for the end of this week, contain marked temperature contrasts, which often result in copious rain, and not helped by the fact that these are so slow in crossing the UK, so there could well be more serious flooding issues by the end of the week, and perhaps more especially for Wales again. Let's just hope that the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas are spared the worst on this occasion. Friday could also be a notably cold June day again too, with projected highs of under 10c for north Wales on Friday, although this, at least is subject to change for the better? Although the end of the week could well turn windy for a while, a repeat of last Friday's damaging gales is considered unlikely. Nonetheless, a very cool, and very wet prospect to end the week - about as bad as it can get in Summer!
    [attachment=135258:brack4 another deep moist rainy L to SW Thu.gif] [attachment=135259:Recm1202 deep wet L approaches Thu.gif] [attachment=135260:Rtavn1322 fro L temp contrast.png] [attachment=135261:Rtavn1324 wet Fri.png] [attachment=135263:Recm1442 L still there Fri very wet.gif]

    No let up from this exceptionally poor Summer weather even next weekend which continues to appear low pressure dominated.
    [attachment=135265:Recm1682 wet weekend.gif] [attachment=135266:Rtavn1801 unsettled still next weekend.png]
  14. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Very unsettled, plenty of rain, and often quite cool[/b]

    The long fine and very warm spell is over, however fairly warm and humid air lingered until this weekend here in west Wales. While Rugby only reached 14c in cool drizzly conditions on Saturday, Llanwnnen managed a humid 23c. June is ushering in with a very unsettled, low pressure dominated and none too warm outlook.

    May taken overall had slightly above normal temperatures, the statistics masking the heat towards the month end. Llanwnnen was on the dry side with just 53mm of rain, while Rugby had 56mm which is average for there. This was the third month in a row that Rugby has had more rain than Llanwnnen, a complete reversal of the norm!

    A very wet night and morning across the Midlands, with an inch of rain having fallen already in places there, more drizzly for west Wales. More rain and drizzle at times for the rest of Sunday, and a very cool afternoon for the Midlands, just 11 to 13c the highs. The rain clears away overnight.

    A little bump of high pressure follows the low for Monday, so hopefully a mostly dry and bright Spring Bank Holiday, just the chance of a few showers for the Midlands. A rather cool day reaching just 17c or so. A clear, chilly Monday night to follow a pleasant enough day, although as we are now into 'Summer' no ground frost is expected.

    The next frontal system is waiting in the wings of the south-west Tuesday morning, and rain and drizzle arrives in west Wales by lunchtime, set to spoil any Jubilee celebrations here, while the Midlands may remain dry until later in the afternoon. Temperatures on the cool side again for the Jubilee with all the cloud, maxima just around 16c.
    [attachment=134966:brack1a Jubilee spoiler.gif] [attachment=134967:Rtavn604 damp Jubilee afternoon.png]

    A very low pressure dominated theme Wednesday onwards, as systems move slowly in from the Atlantic to cross the UK. Difficult to pin down timings of longer spells of rain, as well as just how wet each day will turn out. Suffice to say plenty of showers and longer periods of rain, heavy at times. Wednesday looks an essentially sunshine and showers day, these heavy at times with thunder possible. The modelling currently suggests an especially wet spell on Thursday or Friday as a large low containing plenty of moist, warm air slowly moves into the UK. With this air type some thundery showers, even thunderstorms, could also be a feature later in the week, more especially for the Midlands - as is usually the case. In any sunny intervals on Thursday or Friday feeling humid and warmer, potentially up to 21c, but if cloudy and wet then just 18c at best.
    [attachment=134968:brack2a showery wed.gif] [attachment=134969:Recm722 big flabby low wed showery.gif] [attachment=134973:Rtavn844 showery wede.png][attachment=134970:brack4 wet windy thur.gif] [attachment=134971:Rtavn1082 humid wet thu.png] [attachment=134972:Recm1202 wet spells thu to fri.gif] [attachment=134974:Rukm1201 low stuck end week rain showers.gif]

    Even as far out as next weekend, it's looking very unsettled with further rain or showers at times and still rather cool. All in all, by this time next week we should all have had a good soaking, a further two inches of rain falling in places this week.
    [attachment=134975:Rtavn1501 still unsettled next wend.png] [attachment=134976:Recm1682 still very unsettled next wend.gif]
  15. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Warm with some showers to mid week, then mostly dry but cooler[/b]

    Some welcome dry, very warm and sunny weather in recent days. We all had a completely dry week just gone, the first one since March. West Wales was hot on Friday and again Saturday, reaching 28c in a few places, including Llanwnnen, and just missing out on breaking the all time May heat record of 29c for the Principality.

    Cooling off this week but probably still not much in the way of rain, just hit and miss showers.

    From Monday through to Wednesday this week we gradually lose the heat although it will still be warm for the end of May. We are in a slack pressure zone between low and high pressures. This suggests plenty of dry and warm weather with sunny spells. However, the pressure is low enough coupled with the day time warmth of the sun for scattered showers to develop on each of these days. These will though be hit and miss affairs, with a fair few places getting completely dry days, then perhaps a few sharp showers on another of the days between Monday and Wednesday, along with the outside chance of a thunderstorm. Maximum temperatures lower than during the present spell but still managing 21 to 25c.
    [attachment=134621:brack0a slack col warm poss showers mon.gif] [attachment=134622:Rtavn602 slack warm few showers tue.png] [attachment=134623:brack2 slack warm some showers wed.gif] [attachment=134624:Recm722 slack warm some showers wed.gif]

    Things change from Thursday with high pressure building from the north-west, and a cool north to north-east air stream coming down across the UK about this high. This air is in fact of Arctic origin, but much moderated as it travels south to Britain. A few early showers still possible on Thursday especially for the Midlands, but then it brightens up but is much cooler and fresher than of late, temperatures only reaching 16 to 18c. This set up remains for Friday and probably next weekend also, so generally dry and bright but a cool north-east breeze. Sunniest for west Wales, where it will feel pleasant enough, but areas of cloud more likely to come off the North Sea affecting the Midlands at times, so perhaps feeling a bit chilly here. Some showers could also come into the Midlands next Saturday but that's a long way off. Maximum temperatures for the end of the week near average at 17 to 20c. With skies clearing and the cool air mass, a ground frost cannot be ruled out for the nights at the end of the week, even though we are into June!
    [attachment=134625:brack4 cooler ne about NW H thu.gif] [attachment=134626:Rtavn1082 cooling off northerly thu.png] [attachment=134627:Recm1202 cooler ne dry fri.gif] [attachment=134628:Rtavn13817 this cool really fri.png] [attachment=134629:Rukm1441 coll ne flow dry sat.gif] [attachment=134631:Rtavn1621 coolish showers sat.png] [attachment=134632:Recm1682 coolish dry weekend.gif]
  16. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Becoming dry, warm and quite sunny! [/b]

    The week just gone was not too bad overall with plenty of dry weather, if generally rather cool. Llanwnnen did manage to reach 18c on Friday though, which is a little above the May average. A total of 20mm of rain falling on Llanwnnen, and only 10mm on Coventry in the past week.

    A taste of Summer on the way in the coming week (let's hope it's not the last!), with the highest temperatures since that exceptionally warm spell in March.

    Messy looking charts for Sunday and Monday as weak fronts straddle the country, with legacies of cloud and a little rain or drizzle in places. Signs of the big improvement to come with our weather showing on Monday however, with a ridge starting to build over western and northern UK, and where it will be a dry and bright day, so west Wales should see some sunshine Monday afternoon.
    [attachment=134342:brack1a improvement signs ridge starts.gif]

    Then, during Tuesday and Wednesday, this seemingly dubious ridge continues to strengthen across the UK, wedged precariously between low pressure over most of Europe to the south-east, and the nearby Atlantic to our west. In spite of this, the ridge is modelled to build and hold on for the rest of the week, extending from a high over Scandinavia.
    [attachment=134343:Recm722 precarious ridge Tue.gif] [attachment=134344:Rtavn842 wam uppers from Tue.png] [attachment=134345:brack4 stronger ridge Wed however precarious.gif]

    In weather terms then, Tuesday onwards will be dry with decent sunny spells. As usual cloud amounts in the circulation are difficult to establish, but west Wales and the Midlands seem set for a reasonably sunny spell, any areas of cloud more likely towards the east. With the sunshine and favourable wind direction a warm, even very warm week, is in prospect, maxima reaching between 20c and 24c widely, and I would not rule out the odd 26c by Friday. Breezes of variable direction mid week, becoming more easterly or even south-east as the week progresses, and these may also freshen up a bit too. Mild nights, so that no more ground frosts to be concerned with.
    [attachment=134346:Rtavn1081 Scandi H Wed dry warm sunny.png] [attachment=134347:Recm1202 Scandi H Thu warm dry easterly.gif] [attachment=134348:Rukm1441 scandi high Fri dry warm.gif] [attachment=134349:Rtavn1562 potentially very warm Friday SE flow.png]


    Next weekend, a shallow weak low is being modelled close to our south-west, which could threaten some showery rain for Saturday, but this is a long way off, and equally the warm and sunny spell may well hang on a bit longer! In fact, it's all highly speculative, but the GFS model is showing the warm and mostly dry spell to continue for the rest of May...
    [attachment=134350:Recm1682 SE wind showers threaten weekend.gif] [attachment=134351:Rtavn1744 showery rain poss Sat.png] [attachment=134352:Rtavn1801 fly in ointment for next Sat poss.png]
  17. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and changeable; more rain and showers at times, with decent dry interludes. Frost risk mid week.[/b]

    The dismal, cool and soggy Spring continues relentlessly. A respite from the rain this weekend but a fairly unsettled outlook for the coming week, so still no prolonged dry or warm weather as yet. In fact, more late frosts are expected in the middle of the coming week.


    After a fairly sunny but windy weekend, the cloud from the next frontal system, attached to a deep low passing north of Scotland, spreads over during this evening. Rain at times Sunday night, especially for west Wales along with quite a strong south-west wind. The rain should have cleared by lunchtime with sunny spells and a few showers for Monday afternoon and evening. A fresh westerly wind and feeling rather cool.
    [attachment=134153:brack0 rain to showers mon.gif]

    Even cooler on Tuesday, with a fresh to strong north to north-west wind bringing quite a few showers, these heavy with hail at times. Maxima just 10 to 12c. The low pressure edges away east Tuesday night, and winds may ease enough to give a ground frost as temperatures get down close to zero. Wednesday looks like being a dry and fairly sunny day with a high pressure crossing southern Britain. Still rather cool though, 14 to 16c at best. Clear skies lead to another frost for Wednesday night, close to zero in places once more.
    [attachment=134154:Recm482 cool showery tue.gif] [attachment=134155:brack2a frost sunny wed.gif] [attachment=134156:Rtavn781 H south wed dry.png] [attachment=134158:Rtavn9017 frost wed night.png]

    This high has moved east by Thursday, but may still be ridging across England and Wales and keeping it generally dry, but perhaps with more cloud than Wednesday. There is the chance that some showery rain may arrive from the west later in the day, but a mostly dry Thursday looks likely. Temperatures around average reaching 15 to 17c, warmest in the Midlands.
    [attachment=134157:Recm962 mostly dry thu after frost.gif]

    On Friday we are influenced by a low pressure moving up from France with it's associated rain. It's debatable how far north this low will push up , but it seems it could get into southern UK. Alternatively, it may give us a glancing blow passing more to the south-east. Nonetheless turning more unsettled again on Friday and into next weekend with areas of rain or showers affecting many parts. If the low tracks to our south-east then it drags chilly north-east winds over us too, so not too good at least for Saturday, with well below average temperatures once more. The GFS model is showing highs of just 7c for Wales and the Midlands next Saturday, an exceptionally cool and damp day - however this model tends to exaggerate temperatures so 10c or so would be a more realistic level should this scenario play out, and with the usual proviso that 'it's a long way off'! As for next Sunday, another cool day seems likely, although whether it rains or not is anyone's guess at this stage.
    [attachment=134159:Rtavn1201 shall low south fri.png] [attachment=134160:Recm1202 cool E wind fri rain later.gif] [attachment=134161:Rtavn1441 L to SE Sat unsettled cool NE wind.png] [attachment=134162:Rtavn15017 Very cool sat.png]
  18. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Unsettled, more rain or showers at times, temperatures close to average. Looking dry next weekend.[/b]

    Although overall April 2012 was the wettest on record for the UK, this was not the case at Coventry where the final amount fell just 2mm short of the all time record of 106mm, nor for Ceredigion, with Llanwnnen receiving 126mm rain compared with the 186mm that fell on Lampeter in April 1998. However, Rugby had almost three times the April average with 129mm falling, and probably a local record amount. All very welcome given the long term rainfall deficit and drought orders, but some drier weather would not go amiss given the flooding that has occurred in places!

    Some very cool weather about at times during the past week just gone; on Thursday Rugby reached just 7c, which is 8c below the early May average figure. However, although the cool northerly snap did arrive as predicted for this weekend, with snow showers in parts of Scotland and northern England, the light winds and some sunshine meant it actually has not felt too bad here in west Wales and we managed 10c to 12c maximum temperatures and stayed mostly dry on Saturday, and were also spared the frosts that some other areas have had.

    Low pressure is set to spoil the May Day Bank Holiday, with a mostly cloudy morning and rain at times, this becoming more showery during the afternoon, some of these heavy. By Tuesday the low is over Scotland, so more showers or even a longer spells of rain, but with sunny intervals between. Temperatures a little below average so reaching 13-15c. Skies clear on Tuesday night, so a ground frost possible in places.
    [attachment=133886:brack0a mon low.gif]

    Wednesday should see a respite and may well turn out generally dry for most places with some sunshine too, so a little warmer up to 17c or so. A bit of a tight squeeze however, with the next low system waiting in the wings to the south-west and bringing more rain later on Wednesday, and more especially for Thursday. A mild night on Wednesday temperatures staying above 10c. This large complex low is then tracking across the UK on Thursday, so potentially a very wet day, with a flood risk in places. The rain should become more showery as the day progresses, especially to the south. Where it brightens up later in the day, it will become warm and humid up to 20c, which in turn will cause some heavy and thundery showers to develop. However, where it remains cloudy and wet only reaching 14c or so. It could be quite a windy day too depending on the exact track of the low, although if it decides to cross Wales then not so windy. The low track will also determine whether the warm conditions reach our areas or not?
    [attachment=133887:Recm722 respite poss gf tue night.gif] [attachment=133888:brack3 respite wed.gif] [attachment=133893:Rtavn782 squeeze wed drier or not.png][attachment=133889:Recm962 next low wed night.gif] [attachment=133890:brack4 complex L very wet thu.gif] [attachment=133891:Rtavn964 wet start thu.png] [attachment=133892:Rtavn1021 thu low.png]

    Previous recent model runs were indicating that southern parts would be getting a brief but very warm blip on Friday, up to 25c in places! Now though this is looking much less likely, with the warm sector of the low soon swept away east into Europe. So, the end of the week looks like drying out with a better weekend in prospect. Quite a cool and breezy day for Friday first though, with some showers still knocking about. High pressure builds across Wales and England just in time for the weekend so it may well be a dry, fine one. Not especially warm, maxima around 16c probably, and still a ground frost chance by night, but a pleasant enough weekend given what the weather models are predicting at the moment.
    [attachment=133894:Rtavn1321 drying up fri.png] [attachment=133895:Rukm1441 drying out Fri.gif] [attachment=133897:Rtavn1561 weekend high dry.png]
  19. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Very wet and windy Sunday, then some rain or showers, but generally drier and and milder[/b]


    This month is going some way to easing the water shortage in parts of the UK, and will end up one of the wettest April's on record; Llanwnnen has had over 5 inches rain so far and Rugby over 4 inches. The record for Coventry is 106mm (just over 4 inches), and so with a very wet Sunday coming up, a good chance this will become the wettest April on record.

    Another low pressure system is currently winding itself up over northern Spain and is on course for south-west England, bringing moist air and plenty more rain along with strong winds for Sunday. So a thoroughly wet and windy day, the NE to east winds gusting to gale force, and the rain very heavy at times. The largest rainfall totals could well be in the Midlands with an inch likely in parts here. With all the wind and rain a very cool day, temps failing to reach just 10c or so. The rain will cease during the evening, being replaced by a few showers and the wind eases overnight.
    [attachment=133585:brack0a wet cool windy sunday.gif] [attachment=133586:Rtavn304 soggy sunday.png]

    This same low pressure sits fairly close to SW England on Monday and Tuesday so more unsettled weather, however it will be appreciably warmer than April has been with the wind coming off the Continent. Still some rain or showers about, with some heavy again, but sunny spells between, so temperatures reaching 16 to possibly 19c.
    [attachment=133587:Recm482 warmer showers Mon.gif] [attachment=133588:brack3 more rain tue.gif] [attachment=133589:Rtavn781 unsettled Tue quite warm.png]

    A ridge of high pressure then tries to build in from the north-west from Wednesday, so it's looking that it will be a mostly dry picture for several days from mid week, with sunny spells, and just the odd shower in a few places. Temperatures close to the early May average reaching 14 to 16c, although there is a chance of some low cloud feeding in off the North Sea into the MIdlands, and if this happens then temperatures will will be pegged down to just 9c there, very chilly indeed. Where skies clear overnight, there will be a frost risk, ground frost in the main, but a slight air frost cannot be ruled out.
    [attachment=133590:Rtavn1082 rudge dry mid week.png] [attachment=133591:Recm1442 week R drier Thu Fri gf.gif]

    Now, for next weekend things are shaping up for a belated cold (cool) blast of north to north-easterly winds. High pressure sets up over Greenland and with low pressure over northern Europe, an Arctic sourced air-stream affects the UK. If this happens, and it's a long way off in weather forecasting terms, then a decidedly chilly weekend in prospect with showers of rain, hail, and even sleet or snow for the high ground! Most of the showers would occur over the Midlands, with west Wales more sheltered from a north-east wind, and a better chance of dry, bright weather here. Also, any clear skies by night will see an air frost readily forming, as low as -3c in places where the wind drops off enough. By day, in spite of the sunny spells, temperatures unlikely to better 9 or 10c if this snap comes off.
    [attachment=133592:Rtavn1502 cool snap setting up fri.png] [attachment=133593:Rtavn1802 very cool northerly showers weekend.png] [attachment=133594:Rtavn18017 very cool next Sat.png] [attachment=133595:Recm1922 cool showery next wend.gif]

    So although in the main next week it will be milder than was April, we are still not out of the woods regarding notably cool weather as yet.
  20. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled with more rain and showers. Mostly cool.[/b]

    We all had a good dose of rain last week, with over an inch for most.
    With the set up having been generally showery of late, local variations have occurred, so that for example on Friday morning Lampeter only had a couple of short sharp showers, while inland from Aberystwyth a lot of heavy and prolonged downpours gave almost an inch of rain. Meanwhile the west coast of Pembrokeshire has stayed more or less dry since Wednesday up to Saturday afternoon- lucky for holidaymakers there! As with the previous week hail has been quite a feature where heavier showers have occurred.

    The very unsettled theme shows no signs of relenting even into the start of May, with low pressure always close by, so plenty more useful rain for the drought declared Midlands. A complicated guide this week to try and pin the details on so much is happening, so things may not pan out exactly as envisaged below -but is that not always the case!

    The showers should have largely died out tonight so clearing skies will give another ground frost for many parts by Sunday morning- we got down to -1c last night here at Llanwnnen. The low that has been hanging around over the UK most of the past week finally fills up during Sunday which we see some more showers knocking about with sunny spells between them. Less chance of a ground frost Sunday night as cloud arrives by the morning. The next low then crosses southern England or the Channel during Monday. Some uncertainty as to how far north the rain will extend from this low, depending on it's exact track, but it could well be a wet day for much of Wales and the Midlands, and a very cool one too, with a fresh east to north-east wind, so temperatures struggling to reach just 10c, very poor for late April.
    [attachment=133340:brack0a more showers sunday.gif] [attachment=133341:brack1a v cool wet south Mon.gif] [attachment=133342:Recm722 channel L Mon.gif] [attachment=133343:Rtavn544 how far N for rain Mon.png]

    The low is close to SE England on Tuesday so another cool day with sunny intervals and heavy showers in many places. It does though edge away Tuesday night and there should be enough of a lull and clearance to give a slight air frost for most places. Yet another low arrives to our south-west on Wednesday, so that after a dry, bright morning, further cloud and rain will spread up from the south-west during the afternoon and evening accompanied by a fresh to strong SE wind. Needless to say with the wind and rain another cool day, temperatures up to just 10 to 12c at best. Indeed, Wednesday looks like being the wettest day of the coming week.
    [attachment=133344:Recm962 lull frost risk Tue night.gif] [attachment=133345:Rtavn9617 frosty Tue night.png] [attachment=133346:brack4 New L SW becoming wet windy Wed.gif] [attachment=133347:Rtavn1084 cool wet Wed.png]


    This low pressure area continues to sit to our south-west while filling up at the end of next week. More of same, with sunny spells and showers, these heavy and thundery in places probably right up to the weekend. Milder than of late though with winds more from the south, so at least temperatures close to the late April average reaching 13 to 15c on Friday and perhaps even Saturday too, and no frosts to be concerned about. A great deal of uncertainty in the models 7 days out though and with so much happening this week, and the reality may well turn out rather different.
    [attachment=133348:filling L SW Fri showery.png] [attachment=133349:Recm1442 L still SW Fri showery milder.gif]

    Meanwhile over Germany, the same low brings deep southerly winds next weekend with temperatures reaching 80f in places there. Wonder how long we will have to wait to see such heat!
    [attachment=133350:Recm1922 hot Germany next wend.gif]
  21. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Dry bright start, then very unsettled with plenty of rain and showers. Rather cool.[/b]

    [font=arial, sans-serif]After the wet day Monday with almost an inch of rain, Llanwnnen and much of west west Wales dodged the showers until Friday, with plenty of dry weather and good sunny spells. Warwickshire too missed the worst of the showers this week, while other parts of the country saw several centimeters of lying hail and thunderstorms locally.[/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif]The general theme of rather cool and unsettled weather is set to continue for much of the remainder of April. More rain and showers prevailing after a dry, bright start to the coming week.[/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif]A ridge of high pressure gives us a mainly dry couple of days Sunday and Monday, and there will be sharp frosts overnight, as low as -5c in places. The illusion of a quiet fine week does not last, as later on Monday a quite deep low pressure edges towards Scotland.[/font] [font=arial, sans-serif]Rain will arrive in west Wales during the evening and move steadily into the Midlands overnight. At least no frost with all the cloud and rain. [/font]

    [attachment=133134:brack1a Ridge Mon sharp frost.gif] [attachment=133135:Recm722 L edging in Mion night rain fronts.gif]
    [font=arial, sans-serif]Tuesday to Thursday are then controlled by this complex area of low pressure that slowly transfers across the UK. A very unsettled picture with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, and as with last week, hail and thunder in places. Some sunny spells between the showers but a lot less dry, bright weather than this past week. [/font]
    [attachment=133136:brack3 rain showers tue west wind.gif] [attachment=133137:Rtavn841 Tue deep L.png] [attachment=133138:brack4 complex L UK Wed.gif] [attachment=133139:Recm1202 L still there Thu.gif]
    [font=arial, sans-serif]Although this particular low eventually edges into the North Sea by Thursday or Friday (depending on which model you prefer), it is quickly replaced by another deep low from the north-west. So a hint of a drier interlude around Thursday or Friday (although probably not completely dry either!), before more very unsettled, wet and windy weather next weekend, with a new low sat somewhere over southern UK. Gales an outside possibility for the west Friday night or Saturday.[/font]

    [attachment=133140:Rtavn1321 between lows thu.png] [attachment=133141:Recm1682 new deep L weekend.gif] [attachment=133142:Rtavn1801 new L next sat.png]
    [font=arial, sans-serif]These lows are within a cool air-mass so temperatures from Tuesday onwards continue to be on the cool side reaching just 10 to 14c. Frosts most likely during Wednesday and Thursday nights when winds are lightest and skies should clear. Winds varying between south-west and north throughout.[/font]
  22. TonyH
    [b]Headline: April showers, some longer spells of rain, cool to average temperatures[/b]

    A very sharp frost for April last Thursday night, down to -6c at Llanwnnen.
    Coventry had as much rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as it did in the whole of March. Rugby was even wetter receiving a very useful 24mm in the bid to prevent a hosepipe ban this Summer! These parts also saw a little snow for a while. West Wales has only had small amounts of rain of late, although this will change in the coming week.

    Low pressure edges towards Scotland during Sunday, so a lot of cloud and becoming quite windy as the day goes on. Rain and drizzle at times, especially during the afternoon and evening, but most of it light. Temperatures around the April average reaching 12 or 13c.
    The trailing cold front looks like developing a wave on Easter Monday, which could be a bit of a washout depending on how this feature develops. The worst of the rain is likely to be in the afternoon, and along with a strong south-west wind to spoil the holiday. Temperatures rather irrelevant given the wind and rain but on the cool side.
    [attachment=132943:brack1 wave rain Mon.gif] [attachment=132944:Rtavn541 wet windy Mon.png]

    During the middle of the week (Tuesday to Thursday) we are still affected by this low which moves into the North Sea or Scandinavia. Rather cool with showery north-west winds. As is the case with showers, some places will get quite a few downpours, while others, even just a few miles away, escape with a mostly dry day. Hail and even the odd crack of thunder are distinctly possible given such an unstable air mass. Temperatures on the cool side, generally only reaching 10- 12c, however, where the showers are fewer it will feel pleasant enough in the sunny spells and could manage 15c at best, perhaps most likely for the Midlands this. Winds are lighter from Wednesday so that some of the showers, where they occur, could well be prolonged, giving an hour or two of wet weather. Clearing skies overnight along with the cool air mass will see slight frosts developing.
    [attachment=132945:brack4 Showers L Scand.gif] [attachment=132946:Recm962 cool showery mid week.gif]

    The usual uncertainty for the end of the week, but there are suggestions of higher pressure and even a ridge moving in by Saturday, so a drier outlook with further sunny spells, and fewer showers about by Friday and Saturday. Still cool though with the generally northerly drift, maxima only around 10c or so. GFS has particularly chilly air over us by next weekend, and is showing a hard frost for early Saturday, down as low as -6c for parts of Wales and the Midlands - this is a long way off to predict and so best just bear this in mind, as in reality the frost may turn out less severe.
    [attachment=132947:Recm1442 cool drier late week frosts.gif] [attachment=132948:Rtavn1562 frosty ridge Sat.png] [attachment=132949:Rtavn16217 cold night Sat.png]
  23. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Welcome rain, with hill snow possible Tuesday. Cool, sharp frosts mid to late week, mostly dry. Unsettled Easter[/b]

    Quite a week just gone, with Winter and Summer in a day, from scraping the ice off to sunbathing a few hours later. Hard to better for prolonged warmth and sunshine in March, even if the Welsh and English records remained in tact. Most of us saw 20 or 21c; with Llanwnnen having 4 consecutive days above 20c, while Coventry had it's warmest March day since 1965. For a bit of perspective the average maximum temperature for the end of March is just 11 or 12c. This weekend has seen temperatures returning to more typical Spring values.

    March was very mild and dry, Llanwnnen had just 24mm , slightly less than Rugby's 25mm, an unusual occurrence, given that Ceredigion is twice as wet as Warwickshire on average. Only small amounts of rain in the coming week it would seem, with the emphasis being on cool, mostly dry and bright weather, with some late sharp frosts for gardeners to beware of.


    Monday starts off frosty, then is mostly dry and bright, but eventually clouding over during the afternoon. A trough moving down from the north is developing a low pressure system along it, which brings a little rain in places during the evening and overnight. Temperatures fairly mild for early April at 13c or so.
    As this low passes away south-east on Tuesday much colder north-east winds blow in, so that during the afternoon the spells of rain will turn to sleet or snow over the hills, with just a slight chance of a little wet snow for a short while to lower levels too. This should all clear away by evening, but a very cool, raw day with the fresh north-east wind restricting maxima to just 6- 8c.
    [attachment=132665:brack1 low developing Mon night.gif] [attachment=132666:brack1a cold air follows low hill snow Tue.gif] [attachment=132667:Rtavn602 hill snow likey Tue.png] [attachment=132668:Rtavn664 turning wintry Tue aft.png]

    From Wednesday a high pressure gradually sinks down just to our west, with cool air ridging east over the UK, so that the rest of the week looks dry, with plenty of sunshine, but cool with the general northerly flow. Some hard frosts for April between Wednesday and Friday, widely down to -3c. and as low as -7c for inland parts of west Wales especially, so some damaging frosts after the early spurt of growth. Cool by day too in spite of the sunshine, temperatures struggling to reach 10c.
    [attachment=132669:Recm962 V cool bright frosts mid week.gif] [attachment=132670:Rtavn1082 cool ridge Thu.png]

    It looks as though another trough of low pressure will move down from the north-west late Friday into Saturday, but probably tracking to our east. Uncertainty then here, but there could be some further rain especially for the Midlands by Friday night, with west Wales likely to stay mostly dry. Less cool by this stage too, and we lose the air frosts.
    [attachment=132671:Rtavn1381 Tr to east late Fri.png]

    A rather unsettled look to the Easter period with a much more westerly spell setting in for Sunday and Monday bringing weather fronts swiftly across the country along with some spells of rain at times, but drier brighter interludes between. Breezy and temperatures only average at best.
    [attachment=132672:Recm1922 UNsettled Easter.gif] [attachment=132673:Rtavn2041 Unsettled rain EM.png]
  24. TonyH
    [b]Headline: More dry, very warm and sunny weather. Much cooler next weekend.[/b]

    All of us have seen very warm, sunny conditions over recent days, Saturday was exceptionally warm in west Wales, with most of Ceredigion reaching 20 or 21c, this being 9 or 10c above the late March average! Sunday is similarly Summer-like.

    More dry, very warm and mainly sunny weather for much of the coming this week. High pressure is currently centred over the North Sea dragging up this warm continental air from the south-east. Over the next few days the high gradually edges west, and is centred over England by Wednesday. Temperatures reaching between 16 and 20c widely, this probably lasting up to Thursday, perhaps even 22c in places, with west Wales most favoured again. Unusually warm for March, and close to, but not quite an all- time UK March record- we need 25c somewhere for that. Fog and low cloud could be problematic over the Midlands on some of the mornings, especially early in the week, just as it has over recent mornings. Rural areas could just about see a touch of ground frost mid week, what with the clear nights being quite lengthy still .
    [attachment=132562:brack0 another Ex Warm March day Monday.gif] [attachment=132563:Recm482 Very warm sunny Tue.gif]
    [attachment=132564:brack2 H slap bang over UK Wed.gif] [attachment=132565:Rtavn661H over us Wed.png] [attachment=132566:Rtavn8417 very warm spell goes on Wed.png]

    Changes from Thursday, with the high shifting west into the Atlantic, this having the effect of switching the wind to a much cooler north-westerly. The cool down should hold off until Friday however. Probably more cloudy on Friday, with sunny intervals and temperatures down closer to average, reaching 12 to 15c.
    [attachment=132567:brack4 retrogression cool down imminent.gif] [attachment=132568:Rtavn1021 retro Thu.png] [attachment=132569:H west cooldown Fri.gif]

    Next weekend keeps the dry spell going, high pressure remains close to our west, and there will be a chilly north breeze, so much cooler than this weekend, maxima of just 10-12c. Sunny spells by day but could well be slight frosts overnight.
    [attachment=132570:Rtavn1501 cool H Sat.png] [attachment=132571:Rtavn15617 much cooler dry Sat.png] [attachment=132572:Recm1682 chilly dry weekend.gif]
  25. TonyH
    [color=#000000]
    [b]Headline- Mostly dry: rather cloudy early on, then improving mid- week onwards to warm sunny spells for most. [/b][/color]

    Although mainly dry this past week, the high pressure which suggested some warm, and at times sunny weather, in reality contained a lot of quite cool, moist air. At least around Lampeter we did see a few very mild and sunny afternoons last week, however the Cardigan Bay coast and central MIdlands saw plenty of cloud and mist, with temperatures restricted to high's of just 7 to 10c for the most part, quite disappointing considering the models were predicting so much better. Of interest is that during the early part of last week, while most lowland and coastal Wales was quite cool and misty, high ground up around 1000 feet was warm and sunny- Tredegar at 18c was the warmest place in the UK on Monday! There was some warm and sunny weather to be found if you were prepared to climb a hill..
    [color=#000000]
    More generally dry weather the coming week, and it's not looking good for the drought restricted areas of England this Summer. A new high pressure, so new headaches with where areas of cloud will persist and where they manage to break, will make all the difference to the weather experienced, although the latter half of the week looks warmer and sunnier broadly speaking.[/color]
    [color=#000000]
    Firstly on Sunday plenty of cloud from a weak trough and some rain or drizzle in places, especially the Midlands, this clearing later with even some late afternoon sunshine for west Wales probably. A cooler feel to the day too, and there could well be a slight frost as skies clear during Sunday night.[/color][color=#000000]
    [attachment=132354:brack0 cloud damp Sun.gif][/color]

    [color=#000000]
    High pressure is close to France early in week, with westerly winds bringing probably plenty more cloud and just sunny intervals for luckier places, this being on Monday and Tuesday, even with a little drizzle in some places. On the mild side though and reaching 11-13c.[/color][color=#000000]
    [attachment=132355:brack1a ridge but cloud mon.gif] [attachment=132356:Recm722 cloud westerly Tue.gif] [attachment=132357:Rtavn782 H westerly Tue.png][/color]
    [color=#000000]
    This area of high pressure then moves into into the North Sea or Germany region by Thursday. Winds then switching to south east, a direction which should favour more in the way of sunshine and increased temperatures. By Friday if this scenario plays out, then many of us will see temperatures of 16 - 18c maxima. As usual in Spring, should skies be clear enough overnight, then a touch of ground frost is likely, but hardly noticeable.[/color][color=#000000]
    [attachment=132358:Rtavn1082 turning south Wed.png] [attachment=132359:Recm1442 wam SE flow Fri.gif] [attachment=132360:Rtavn1501 mild se flow Fri.png][/color]
    [color=#000000]
    Some of the model output over the past few days has hinted at a disturbance forming close to South-west England by the end of the week, and if this feature were to develop, then some showery rain is likely in places on Friday or Saturday, more especially the south of our regions. This though, I feel, has just an outside chance of happening, and I envisage a generally dry and eventually quite warm week ahead.[/color]
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