TonyH
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Posts posted by TonyH
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The high pressure looks awful. First of all it will be to the west allowing Atlantic gunk to spew over the top of it and down the eastern side of the country, reminiscent of the repellant second half of June last year.When it moves further south/east it should allow a westerly flow so will be brighter here but still too breezy for frost. So little or no frost likely here over the next 7-10 days. This is dire for a winter month. Just awful
2014/15 has been another lamentable winter. Not as bad as 06/07, 07/08, 11/12 and 13/14 for snow but worse than all of them for frost except last winter.Well at least Aberdeen was the sunniest place in the UK January so its not all doom and gloom up there, funny how you dont mention that!
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Daily weather summary Llanwnnen, Ceredigion
Clear skies and sharp frost yesterday evening became cloudier about midnight with a temperature rise above 0c. Clear spells and frost again late night. Light north breeze.
Rather cloudy start, almost unbroken bright sunshine from 0830. Cold with a moderate north breeze. Shade frost and ice persisted.
Overnight min: -4.4c 2300 yesterday
24 hour min: -4.4c
Daytime max: 4.5c 1459
24 hour max: 4.5c
24 hour rain to 0900 today: Nil
Rain since 0900 today: Nil
Monthly rain to date: 0.9mm
Annual rain to date: 175.6mm
Estimated sunshine from webcam captures: 8.5 hoursPredominant wind direction: North
Mean wind-speed: 8.5km/hr
Maximum gust: NNW 18mph 1312
Currently
Temperature: 0.1c
Dewpoint: -2.4c
RH: 83%
Pressure: 1026.5mbar
Trendper hour: 0.59
Weather: Clear frosty
State of ground: Dried out, damp, frosty patches; lawn frosted -
My lowest is -8.4c 29 Dec, that would be a typical Winter minimum.
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Have to agree with this. I'd say 95% of members on this forum want Snow, and just cold with a bit of frost isn't wetting the appetite of many.
Just had a good look at the profile this morning, and it's bleak, to say the least. HP dominating for the next 15 days or more, cold, dry & benign.
Anything can happen after that, but all I see is a flat pattern with not much interest.
Correct its a snow/ storm forum not a true weather enthusiasts forum.
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Llanwnnen, Ceredigion daily summary
Clear periods with quite a severe frost last night, near calm.
Sunny today, rather cold but shade frost mostly thawed. Light to moderate NNW breeze.
Clear with frost soon setting in again after sunset.
Overnight min:-7.1c 0758
24 hour min: -7.1c
Daytime max: 4.4c 1436
24 hour max: 4.4c
24 hour rain to 0900 today: 0.3mm
Rain since 0900 today: Nil
Monthly rain to date: 0.9mm
Annual rain to date: 175.6mm
Estimated sunshine from webcam captures: 7.5 hr
Currently-
Temperature: -1.0c
Dewpoint: -3.0c
RH: 85%
Pressure: 1014mbar rising
Trendper hour: 0.73
Weather: Clear frosty
State of ground: Damp and icy patches, lawn frosted -
Low of -7.1c this morning, third coldest of Winter (-8.4c 29 Dec). Lovely hoar frost
Looks like a very dry first half of February with high pressure over us next week and a bit different to this time last year!
287mm here Feb 2014.
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Its held together well should give many places a dusting.
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Snowing slightly on Bablake webcam Cov
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For us we need really a NE feed straight off the Wash - shortest route to the Sea. NNE in a slack flow and they do tend to die a death around Rutland/Stamford before they get here or light dregs before they completely fizzle. Wash streamers are rare. In the 15 years I've lived in Rushden can probably think of two genuine ones.
Agreed, in my experience from living in Coventry snow bands coming from that direction in this type of situation tend not to get past Leicester bar the odd very light flurry.
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Daily weather summary Llanwnnen, Ceredigion
Clear spells and frosty last night, few snow flurries put down a thin covering later, near calm.
Mostly cloudy and cold today. Further snow showers mid morning, fairly heavy briefly, with an accumulation of 0.5 - 1cm. Further bits and pieces of sleet and snow to 1300, then some late sunny intervals. Light NW breeze or calm. Snow cover virtually all disappeared by 1500.
Overnight min -4.3c 0410
24 hour min -4.3c 0410
Daytime max 2.4c 1320
24 hour max 2.4c 1310
24 hour rain to 0900 today 0.6mm
Rain since 0900 today Trace
Monthly rain to date 175.3mm
Annual rain to date 175.3mm
Estimated sunshine from webcam captures 1 hour
Currently -
Temperature: 0.3c
Dew point: -1.0c
RH: 91%
Pressure: 1008mbar steady
Trend per hour: +0.02
Weather: Clear spells, grass frost
State of ground: Damp with frost forming on grass -
https://twitter.com/NWPControlroom/status/562167038119256065
A5 Capel Curig Betws y Coed blocked from Cottage Mawr 3-4 inches of snow. Please avoid & make alternative travel plans #DPL
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Looks a good 3 inches at Deiniolen and Blaenau Ffestiniog.
Quite a bit here too:
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Approaching 1cm covering nice surprise thought they would be sleet and hail again
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Foggy snowing -2c
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Thin covering here
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Llanwnnen, Ceredigion January 2015 summary
Near normal temperatures and slightly wet
Temperatures close to average, rainfall a little above average, a rather typical Winter month having a little snow, some strong winds and heavy rain at times, drier brighter intervals and a fair few frosty nights. Estimated sunshine at 49 hours would be also be near normal.
1st: Very mild and windy with spells of rain, the minima of 8.8c the mildest of the month
2nd – 6th: Often dry, some sunny spells and a little light rain or drizzle at times. Near normal temperatures with night frosts turned milder.
7th – 12th: Unsettled and windy, spells of rain, some heavy, and only brief drier brighter intervals. Mild to very mild, 12.7c 9th being the highest of the month.
13th – 17th: Often quite cold, spells of rain or wintry showers. Heavy snow on the morning of 13th gave 3cm accumulation and there was thunder and lightning during the evening. With the snow cover it was a cold day maximum 2.3c. Briefly mild 14th which saw a deep low cross the UK with heavy rain and strong to gale force winds, 28.2mm made it the wettest day of the month and there were gusts up to 61mph. Some sunny intervals, frosts most nights.
18th – 22nd: Cold but fairly dry, rather cloudy excepting 19th which had an estimated 5 hours sunshine. Often frosty by night, -7.6c night of 18th the lowest of the month, but only the coldest since 29th December (-8.4c)
23rd – 28th: After a frost 23rd became mild, and this spell was often rather mild with some rain at times, it turned colder again during 28th
29th – 31st: Rather cold, windy and showery, some longer spells of rain and sleet, plenty of hail showers especially 31st which gave a temporary covering.
Total rainfall: 174.7mm (123%)
Wettest day: 28.2mm 14th
Rain days >0.2mm: 26
Wet days >1.0mm: 25
Days of heavy rain >10mm: 6
Mean temperature: 4.5c
Mean Max: 7.3c
Mean Min: 1.7c
High Max: 12.7c 9th
Low Max: 2.3c 13th
High Min: 8.8c 1st
Low Min: -7.6c 19th
Est sun: 49hr
Max sun: 5 hours various dates
Days no sun: 7
Air frost: 12
Ground frost: 14
Ice day (max below 0c): 0
Max snow depth: 3cm 13th
Mean RH: 91%
High RH: 100% vs
Low RH: 66% 2nd
Predominant wind direction: WSW
Mean wind speed: 9.2mph
Max gust: 61mph 14th
Mean pressure: 1013mbar
Max pressure: 1036mbar 4th
Min pressure: 975mbar 30th
Days with:
Hail: 9 (2 > 5mm)
Gale: 0
Thunder: 1
Snow or sleet: 9
Snow lying 0900: 2
Fog: 0
Fog at 0900: 0
0900 WIND: N 1 NE 0 E 3 SE 1 S 3 SW 9 W 8 NW 2 C 4 -
Daily summary Llanwnnen, Ceredigion
Clear intervals, fresh to strong NNW wind and sleet and hail showers last night.
Touch of grass frost around dawn. Sunny intervals, rather cloudy at times, occasional mostly light sleet and hail showers. Fresh north wind am decreased to become near calm this evening.
Clear spells frosty this evening.
Stats
Overnight min 1.6c @ 0800
24 hour min -1.3c 2038
Daytime max 4.6c 1504
24 hour max 4.6c 1504
24 hour rain to 0900 today 4.7mm
Rain since 0900 today 0.2mm
Monthly rain to date 0.2mm
Annual rain to date 174.9mm
Estimated sunshine from webcam captures 2 hours
Currently:
Temperature -1.0c
Dew point -2.9c
RH 86%
Pressure 1008mbar steady
Trend per hour +0.05
Weather Clear spells, near calm, frosty
State of ground Slightly damp patchy ice -
This so-called Polar Low was described as a 'small feature' by the METO this morning and would be in the Channel by mid morning. giving a smattering of rain, sleet or a dusting of snow on it's travels.
I know I annoyed people going on about it not being a polar low, but honestly how could it have been? We are just diluting our weather terminology so that it is becoming meaningless dumbed down garbage! This has really peed me off and everyone gets suckered in by the hype it's just pathetic, perhaps I contribute to the wrong kind of forum
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Hope it don't turn to rain for you guys as it's a relatively mild 4.6c here.
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4.6c here some polar bear!
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How on earth can this be a polar low - it's close on 5c here in the warm sector of this standard secondary low.
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The thingy seems to be breaking up as it nears n Wales now
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IM afraid not JAY the centre of the system has warm sector rising 2c ,so we wait for Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday many more snow chances to come! great spell of wintry weather.
But its a modern Polar Low it only has slightly mild sectors
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OH my god Derek love him said snow showers for Wales on Sunday
Yes streamer will set up hopefully straight through Lampeter
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by TonyH
Not that drastic MPG I will take a lower profile, my main forum is UKWW now but I still feel duty bound to post my daily/ monthly summaries here as I know some appreciate them
...Besides I am coming up to my 10, 000th post :O