Mark_p

Yellow rain warning now for northern parts of the region. Very windy in ormskirk which is just in the amber warning but the sun is out for now.

The weather models really struggle with these secondary low-pressure systems, looks like quite a nasty one for our part of the world and parts of Ireland. I suppose the saving grace is that it looks like it will move through fairly quickly - I'm also concerned about surface water flooding locally. The trees still have a lot of leaves on and probably won't do by lunchtime tomorrow + heavy rain may result in drains being obstructed or blocked.

This incoming low pressure reminds me of the various slider gate scenarios in winter which bring snow in before it pivots in Cheshire heh. Now this one is rain so naturally will progress a lot further North. Traveling up to the Lakes tomorrow to visit friends - in an interesting twist we'll be *leaving* a rain warning by heading up there. Saturday looks onwards looks very pleasant much like today - the first crisp air of the season.

The 'Joint Cyclone Center' tweets (or whatever we call tweets now on X) have a worrying amount of engagement for pseudo-science. There is obviously no such thing as a recognised 'category 3 major cyclone' in reference to an extratropical cyclone. They are trying to spook people with graphics that remind us of those agencies that forecast tropical cyclones when the two weather phenomena are unrelated and work by completely different physics. Regardless of the central pressure of low-pressure systems or maximum isolated gusts, an extratropical storm like Agnes will never operate in the same way as a tropical cyclone. Agnes will still have impacts which people can see by referring to Met Éireann and UK Met Office guidance.

Met Éireann has a different warning criteria to the UK Met Office, it's like what the UK Met used to do - taking absolute values as a threshold for each level rather than the impact vs likelihood matrix. In North West England I pay attention to them as they cover regions of the Irish Sea (also have family in Cork.) Both agencies will name a storm if either reaches Orange/Amber 'moderate' impacts. Met Éireann has such impacts quite widespread across southern counties of the republic and over the Celtic and Irish seas. /images/OG-icon.jpg Met Éireann Warning System Explained - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service WWW.MET.IE Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

Cyclogenesis is so interesting, Agnes is intensifying - you can see that hook starting to develop. Model guidance has it peaking before it reaches land - I wonder how defined the shape of it will become overnight.

Interesting storm Agnes - cyclogenesis is always fascinating to watch. Met Éireann has their moderate orange criteria met for most of the southern counties of the republic and marine warnings from the Celtic Sea into the Irish Sea. I wonder why the Met Office hasn't scaled back the yellow warning, to be honest - modeling takes Agnes centre west - very much an Ireland and Irish Sea event. Perhaps they are considering the passage of the cold front as reaching criteria to warrant the widespread yellow warning.

The Irish Sea being a rainmaker today for many in the region. Why is it never in this mood when the conditions are conducive for snow.

I’m up in Cumbria been at centre parcs for a stag do. It’s been more like being in Florida. Tropical heat then torrential rain and thunder today.

Stubborn cloud, high humidity. It’s a very tropical feeling airmass. Not my favourite weather in all honesty feel drained at work and outside doesn’t offer any respite from it.

I will remember it for a very nice June then a long run of some the vilest summer weekends I can remember. I visited friends in Cumbria in late July and it was more reminiscent of a typical October.

Most damage from hurricanes in Florida comes from the flooding (with a few exceptions.) The big concern here is the storm surge in in apalachee bay which doesn’t have a recorded historical precedent. My understanding is that the area is quite rural which might lessen human impacts in that regards.

Torrential rain. I was visiting some mates of mine in Windermere over the weekend and I can honestly say that Saturday was probably the worst summer day I've ever seen. It was dry in the pubs of course.

Another very disappointing summers day. For humans anyway these ducks at work are enjoying it.

Strike knocked my internet off before rude!

So Irish Sea you are still capable of producing this. Why can’t you do this in the winter when the parameters are right for snow.

The radar is worth a look at quite impressive to see such a widespread thundery breakout in the UK. Of course they will still be hit and miss. Rumbling here with heavy convective rain. Window wide open let’s cool this house down hah.

Quite an interesting drive home in that ️house is still boiling. I’ll be interested in seeing the temperature difference between areas that have seen this vs those who stayed dry further north.

Looks very slow moving no wonder there’s reports of flooding.

It’ll reach ormskirk at 8pm when I leave work and get bloody drenched in it I imagine.

Xc weather obs shows a slight onshore breeze but that is not present in ormskirk. Still and sweltering.

The cloudscapes are just fantastic

It’s here ️️

I can only imagine the very dry conditions have contributed so how temps have responded in the warmer airmass. A lot of the models were saying max 24/5 a few days ago. UKv knew better I guess.

Feeling in the garden what an incredible spell this has been for the region. Can’t remember a nice June in ages. Convective clouds bubbling up I’d be amazed if a lot of the region didn’t see it go ️in a bit. Enjoy all and come on city!