Another Kent clipper

Can't see a good lot from Croydon sadly...

Met office thunderstorm warning Most places will stay dry, but heavy showers and thunderstorms may cause some flooding and disruption to travel. What to expect There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life and there is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures What should I do? Get your camera out https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-08-27&id=80efd4d6-1e3a-4e5a-918c-9cd8b52e1d05

I will be working when it kicks off. This is last hoorah of 2019. Wet, bright, loud, and homegrown. Edit, zmstorm has taken the weather with him, to quote Crowded House.

Ooh, I'm nearly in the grey zone. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Aug 2019 ISSUED 06:04 UTC Tue 20 Aug 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan A rather messy pattern on Tuesday, with an upper trough gradually departing eastern England while an upper ridge builds across Ireland - neither particularly pronounced. The surface pattern is rather slack with weak ridging. Frontal boundaries provide the focus for low-level moisture and convergence, with convective overturning through the day helping to aid the development of scattered showers. Other showers are expected to develop within the warm sector over Ireland too. In most cases, weak shear, fairly saturated profiles and marginal instability suggest the risk of lightning from a given shower is rather low. However, isolated pockets of sporadic lightning may be possible. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-20

Medium rare please

That's beautiful. On the radar it's starting to bend into a bow shape. Bon appetit Edinburgh!

Another good day for 2019's convective capital, Aberdeen. For those that suffer from astropophobia, on the other hand, come to London! Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 17 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 18 Aug 2019 ISSUED 07:59 UTC Sat 17 Aug 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Broad upper trough covers the British Isles through Saturday, the main upper low centre remaining over the Atlantic to the west of Scotland but with a series of shortwaves rotating counter-clockwise along its southern and eastern flank. The broad cold pool will create an unstable environment with marginally-steep mid-level lapse rates and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, scattered showers will affect many areas at various times through this forecast period, and hence difficult to pinpoint specific areas for when/where lightning may occur. In general, the best potential for lightning will be associated with the passage of these shortwaves - so the focus on Saturday lunchtime/afternoon will be northern and eastern Scotland where CAPE increases and mid-level lapse rates steepen as a shortwave moves through, and similarly the Celtic Sea towards the Bristol Channel during the early hours of Sunday. The most intense cells may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter and gusty winds. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-17

For the three people that live under the green section....oh hang on there's entire cities in there (edit) Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 16 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 17 Aug 2019 ISSUED 06:14 UTC Fri 16 Aug 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan An Atlantic frontal system will slide progressively eastwards across the British Isles, bringing an extensive area of frontal rain. Strong shear may encourage some embedded elements of line convection in places, but weak instability, saturated profiles and shallow convective depth suggests little to no lightning is expected. Behind the main frontal band, residual low-level moisture will linger until the surface cold front moves through, with surface dewpoints of 15-17C likely over SE Ireland and the Celtic Sea overlain by a marked mid/upper-level dry intrusion. A subtle shortwave and vorticity maximum aloft may cause the front to buckle over SE Ireland during the late afternoon, with a wave possibly developing on the cold front thermal boundary (probably only identifiable by surface observations due to the lack of any noteworthy frontal rain expected). This, combined with some lift from the Wicklow mountains, may encourage a few scattered showers to develop near the Dublin vicinity, before heading northeastwards across the Irish Sea during the evening hours. With 40kts DLS and some reasonable low-level helicity, a low-topped supercell may be possible, heading towards NW England by mid-evening. Lightning activity is questionable given weak CAPE and potentially limited cloud depth, but some sporadic lightning would be possible. Confidence on this is very low given a lack of notable multi-model support (hence only treated as a low-end SLGT), however it is noted that the EURO4 has remained remarkably consistent run-on-run at simulating a supercell-like shower taking a trajectory from birth over E Ireland towards Cumbria - not to be taken literally of course, and the track is different with each run, but given its good handling in a similar setup on 14th June, it is something to consider. Some sporadic lightning may also develop elsewhere over NW / N England during the evening hours along the northern periphery of the main frontal rain, perhaps also affecting N Wales initially. Elsewhere, scattered showers will affect Ireland and Scotland periodically once the early frontal rain has cleared, although marginal instability and fairly widespread coverage of showers makes it hard to be more specific as to where a few isolated lightning strikes may occur. Once focus may be eastern Scotland for a short window early evening. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-16

I don't know, but I've heard that they eat thundery rain for breakfast in Florida. In the winter

I think we're done for 2019 personally. Here's to a plumetastic 2020

Looking rather tasty in South London

Having recently driven underneath on the M1, I wouldn't be surprised if this line stuff develops rotation this afternoon. Despite being nowhere near tall enough for lightning (about an hour ago), the cloud bases looked prime for a bit of spinny spinny

Would I be jumping the gun here?

Are you kidding me?!...

Meanwhile...

A photo doesn't do it justice but the skies have looking pretty ominous in London despite being nowhere near the action. Today will be very special for some

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 04 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 05 Aug 2019 ISSUED 22:55 UTC Sat 03 Aug 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Update: Risk zone modified due to the entire British Isles conveniently being nudged approximately 100 miles north by our old friend, the vertically stacked low. Or something. Heights will gradually fall through Sunday in advance of the approaching upper low over the Atlantic. A shortwave will slide northeastwards across England and Wales, coinciding with peak diurnal heating, while Ireland becomes subject to the cold pool associated wth the large-scale trough axis swinging northeastwards. A rather complex and messy picture is likely to evolve, with scope for both elevated and surface-based thunderstorm activity possible. In a broad sense, embedded pockets of elevated convection will be possible on Sunday morning over the Irish Sea / Scotland / W Wales, with other pulses developing over northern England during the afternoon - lightning activity is questionable within this timeframe. However, provided there is sufficient clearance for surface heating of the warm, moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 15-18C) then up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE will be possible in places, with a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing almost anywhere within the Scotland / England / Wales SLGT and MDT zones - particularly late afternoon and into the evening hours. The best multi-model agreement on where coverage of thunderstorms may be greater exists over the north Midlands and parts of northern England, and so a tentative MDT has been introduced. The primary hazards will be hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and localised flash flooding, especially given how sensitive the already saturated ground is. Additional elevated convection (showery rain) may develop over East Anglia / SE England during the evening hours before moving offshore. Other additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect central, western and northern Ireland - especially during the afternoon and early evening, before probably merging into a more dynamic area of showery rain as they exit eastwards to the Irish Sea. Main hazards here will be localised surface water flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-04

I've heard that reed timmer has been looking at flights to Manchester..

Care to share? Also, what happens in the very centre of a swirling low like today's? Is it just wet and boring or is there some kind of lull in the rain?

Diurnal heating opportunities? Science me. Edit: just realised my 'arrow' completely disregards Scotland, the convective capital of 2019!

Today is going to be very photogenic. Especially in the gaps where the sun shines on the cells. Definitely a day for the north I reckon

I would agree with this. There are no trees, houses, or hills in open water, which I'm sure you know! It probably helps if the storm is elevated. Also the audible thunder might be the combined effect of overlapping thunders from the frequent strikes that, in isolation, might not be heard

Yep, it woke me up after retreating home. After two hours of sleep, I will forgive it

The one this morning at 04.30 odd, east of London

Kinda like a slowed down lightning bolt on a large scale: Making a path for the good stuff to follow through