Another Kent clipper

I'm not an expert but from what I've read, I'd be leaning towards a yes for tomorrow. I do hope otherwise though, so that your child doesn't hear any thunder. I've been in that position myself back in the day, head under the pillow etc. I also hope someone in the know can better my answer too

Thunderstorm Harold was on flash bang etc's map. I'm not sure if they originally coined it or not

Come on Harold! You can come through for us this time

Yes?

@Swansonson69 I would not be kicking that out of bed!

I think six thunderclaps with accompanying visible flashes counts as an exit from the NSC. One flash wonders can happen on a January! What is needed is for a storm to follow unbearably humid heat with pink lightning bolts pearcing a dirty yellowish sky. That would be an exit

Does anyone know why the GFS does this?

Heard one!

There are sounds that sounds like thunder from possibly the basketball court but there are too many. So I'm not convinced I've heard it. Yet

I'm guessing it's over that way. We still got sun in Bromley

When you turn away it sounds like a round of applause

Sporadic rumble time for some, there's a low end slight on the map... Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 Jun 2019 ISSUED 19:56 UTC Mon 10 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Broad upper troughing will persist across the British Isles on Tuesday, the main upper low located over northern France with a smaller (filling) upper low east of Shetland. Between these two features, heights will tend to rise which will tend to weaken the frontal boundary straddling Wales / northern England, leaving a zone of cloud and increasingly light, patchy rain. South of this front, sufficient low-level moisture will exist (dewpoints of 11-13C) which combined with surface heating could yield a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Low-level convergence zone will likely provide the trigger for a few scattered heavy showers, particularly from midday and through the afternoon hours in a line from SW England northeastwards towards London and/or East Anglia. The environment will be reasonably well-sheared, allowing cells to become somewhat organised and capable of producing sporadic lightning and small hail. Given saturated ground from recent rain events, there will be a risk of some localised surface water flooding. Main concern is somewhat limited convective depth, which may serve to inhibit much in the way of lightning. In fact, it is primarily the UKMO suite that consistently signals deep convection and heavy showers/thunderstorms, whereas most other model guidance appears rather lacking in any particularly noteworthy convection. For now have issued a low-end SLGT. Any showers/storms that do develop will tend to weaken during the evening hours as daytime heating subsides, though some weak elevated convection may develop in a rather random fashion during the night hours over the English Channel and adjacent southern coastal counties, including the Channel Islands. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-11

Just reading about lightning hitting a nursery in western super mare then... Thunder in Morden!

It's travelling southwest which I don't think I've ever seen before

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-09 Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 09 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 10 Jun 2019 ISSUED 05:36 UTC Sun 09 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan A broad upper trough will persist to the west of the British Isles on Sunday and help to generate moderately steep lapse rates and the potential for widespread scattered showers, aided by and organised along zones of low-level wind convergence. Daytime heating will produce 200-400 J/kg of CAPE by early afternoon across much of British Isles, although shear is limited in many areas so showers will likely be of the pulse variety, which will tend to limit the lightning potential somewhat. However, as showers develop and move eastwards across England and Wales, bulk shear values increase to 25-30kts and may allow for some longer lived updrafts and a higher chance of some sporadic lightning - hence a low-end SLGT has been issued here. A few isolated funnel clouds will be possible, particularly in Scotland and southern Ireland where the mean flow will be relatively slack. The most intense cells may produce some small hail. While showers, and hence any lightning activity, will tend to weaken during the evening / night hours inland, an uptick in activity may occur over the Celtic Sea and adjacent parts of Wales / SW England / Scilly Isles during the overnight hours under the upper trough axis.

You know that you will get drizzle. Along with the three obligatory hailstones

Pretty sweet storm, nice big hail, but it seems to have already passed over

Enough with the positivity!

Now here's a question:. Why does the GFS do this? I've seen a pattern of models showing craziness and then getting downgraded to nothing. Is there a particular reason or something that triggers the prediction. And will a layman like myself understand the answer?!

Batten down the hatches! A venomous plume with no fangs Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 02 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 03 Jun 2019 ISSUED 18:52 UTC Sat 01 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Chris A deep area of low pressure will move from west of Ireland towards western Scotland on Sunday with gales likely along its southeastern flank across northern parts of Ireland and into western Scotland. An associated cold front will also spread eastwards across Britain into a plume of unstable air, and a pre-frontal trough may help to tigger some convection within and just ahead of the frontal rain. ENGLAND and WALES At 6z on Sunday an ongoing area of rain with embedded convection is likely to be stretched from southern Scotland/NW England through the Irish and Celtic Seas moving eastwards. The best instability will be displaced from the before mentioned cold front, existing across E Anglia and SE England (up to 1,000 J/kg), and this area will likely remain capped by a layer of warmer air at around 800mb. Convective development in the deeper instability remains unlikely at this stage, although cannot be completely ruled out (one or two models have suggested an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm may develop). As the cold front tracks eastwards forcing will become weaker and rain will become patchier, although some embedded convection remains a possibility along and just ahead of the front as it clears eastern England between mid-afternoon and late evening. An area through N-Cen / NE England is favoured for any more widespread lightning potential, and has the greatest potential for upgrade to slight. Northwestern IRELAND and western SCOTLAND Behind the cold front and around and near the low centre, weak instability, but a moist and highly sheared environment may help to produce some heavier convection with the low end risk of lightning. Although mean winds will be strong, there would also be the small risk of an isolated tornado or two in this area in any stronger convection. With all of that stated, only a low risk of lightning seems appropriate at this stage, but we will continue to monitor trends for an upgrade if required. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-02

Bad ain't it, this year? Woh Nelly

Congratulations! You're only gutted because you might miss the lightning whilst having to mingle really

Flash, bang but no etc in other words

Even if it does evaporate (there's not much scope for it to get better so the only direction is the opposite) no-one can take the hope and anticipation away from me. (Not my video by the way, i just remember a string of nasty thunderstorms in the mid-nineties)

And guess who's not working that Sunday and Monday? This is all too perfect to be true, something has to give. Maybe I'll be hospitalised by a French positive strike and miss it all