Another Kent clipper

I would have to agree, it's been shocking! I'm confident there will be one more big event though, might take until August

May car hire be in the pipeline?

I read from some pdf about European lightning distribution that the Mediterranean in general is the place for autumn storms https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/815/2014/nhess-14-815-2014.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwicrfL125HjAhVai1wKHcOMBYMQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2wiTUidh_24oGzP18yM2e7

If they're electrical they will. A wet mess would be a direct hit

That a bow echo?

I think some lightning records are going to be broken today. June 28th 2012 watch out, June 29th incoming. Pity I can't get to the area

I'm thinking today that convective north-south divide might get HS2ed

Well, tomorrow could be another June 28th. But for Ireland only. First time I've seen a "severe" on convective weather in a long time. Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 28 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 29 Jun 2019 ISSUED 20:19 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper ridge persists across western Europe, although as it slowly pivots slightly to the east, it allows the EML (elevated mixed layer) that has lingered over the Celtic Sea south of Ireland for the past few days to eventually lift northwards through Friday. A corridor of strong instability (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg elevated CAPE) will ultimately move across S / SW Ireland on Friday morning, which may phase favourably with a ribbon of shear vorticity, and shortwave impulse embedded within the strong southeasterly flow on the forward side of the approaching Atlantic upper vortex. Forecast profiles are fairly saturated between 800-900mb, suggesting that low cloud may be rather extensive, with drizzle in places. An EML will be located above this layer, from which air parcels may be able to rise and lead to deep elevated convection - assuming some moistening of the profile occurs. Most model guidance is reluctant to develop much in the way of convection, and hence confidence is rather low for this scenario. However, the ECMWF and AROME have consistently, run-on-run, signalled the development for elevated thunderstorms over SW Ireland on Friday morning before moving offshore to the NW. Given the magnitude of CAPE available, and the strongly-sheared environment, any storms that do manage to develop could become severe - with the main threat being large hail 2-3cm in diameter, and localised surface water flooding. As such, we have issued a conditional SVR area. There could also be a few elevated showers drifting across NW Ireland towards W Scotland on Friday night, as the EML plume continues to shift gradually northwards and eastwards with time. Subtle forcing and rather dry profiles results in low confidence over how much, if any, lightning activity may occur. A stronger signal exists late in the night, towards Saturday morning, for a new round of elevated thunderstorms to develop as the upper trough axis sharpens and approaches from the south. Primary interest would be over the Celtic Sea and eventually spreading northwards towards eastern Ireland. Confidence is not particularly high at present, so have refrained from including a SLGT here for now.

Aye! Hiding in the car from the rain

Yes, haha the Aygo.

good find by the way. There's quite a few car parks here, I chose the "friends" one in the end. Not sure if I'm gonna sit and kill time in this seemingly dynamic rain or retreat to London and find a hill

Gonna try this one too. Only 40 mins from where I'm at..

I'm parked in Croydon after finishing work. As I've no idea whether this MCs is an evening thing or an early hours thing.. should I really be driving south now?!

The storms will be elevated and won't require warm air from the surface

From what I've heard, smooth appearance (as opposed to cauliflower) is a telltale feature of an evelated thunderstorm and that is well exhibited in that image

Friday 30th June, bury st Edmunds, 33.5c

Plume rules. At work: "why are you so tired"... "Erm I was checking the radar. At 12, 2, 4, and 6am. Contemplated going out for a look when I was within 100 miles of sferics but then I fell asleep"

This gives me hope. By being likely elevated the storms might wait for me to finish work at 8.30pm

My four days off have fallen on yesterday, today, tomorrow, and Sunday! ... however, having just checked the GFS, tue-wed-thu are already scaled down for Cape from what they were. Can't speak for other charts

I'm working mon-sat next week till late. This means these graphics are as real as.. something real. I'm not selfish but drizzle please!

Does it count as leaving if I drove 90 minutes to get to the action?

Funnily enough that's where I've wound up. Parked up facing the sea. Heading back to London now, I think there's nothing more to see in kent

Ok, I've finished work in London. Where's it heading? I'm about to get in my car!

Can we drain the channel please?!

Looks like thunder and toast will be on the 9am breakfast menu in Hampshire. I don't see the channel killing this little fireball off.