Summerstorm

To be honest more inclined to believe UKMO,GFS and ECM than anything that AROME and HIRLAM are showing for tomorrow. But you still might get something though just look at the radar and out the window and see what you get basically what i'm doing as well as i'm not allowing myself to get too excited until it is completely firmed up later on even though i'm in the North.

Just for fun as it's way out in FI but anyone for snow on Christmas Day

Not too nervous myself BBC forecast has stayed the same for like the last 2 days for Sunday for here so looking good down here. But good look to everyone else think North Wales/Cheshire might be the sweet spot even it moves North or South i think we'll still get a lot of snow.

Has the wind direction changed or something? Don't seem to be getting anywhere near as many showers at all over in the North East they just aren't forming in the Irish Sea.

Well if you class Wrexham as North West then i'll post this in here i guess... still going strong here been snowing for the last 10-15 minutes some pretty big blobs out there now and been pretty gusty at times so it looks like a blizzard half the time.

Just had some sleet as well just need the temp down a bit the dewpoints are already below freezing here.

Dewpoint of around -1.5c here but temps still around 3-4 degrees or at least it is in Hawarden which latest observation said 4.8c but would take a degree off that for here as Hawarden is just outside Chester

Yeah this stuff is notoriously difficult to forecast so there might be some surprises for some people yet. It's already snowing in NI,Scotland,Yorkshire etc. so the conditions are clearly ripe for snow just keep an eye on the radar i'd say and see what you get really. Edit : Pretty much what @DeepSnow said really.

Looks like things have been downgraded a bit forecasting sleet all day now instead. Wonder whether the BBC think the dewpoints aren't cold enough for snow as they are still forecasting air temps to be 1 degrees which should be cool enough which might suggest the upper air temps are not as cold as they thought they might be as @freeze for allis saying. But there is still time for things to change though there is still potential for Saturday and Sunday as well so it's not game over. Look on the bright side at least it isn't mild,dull and drizzly and it will at least feel seasonal. Also could be that the colder air is taking longer than expected to arrive to so just wait and see

Looking pretty good up here BBC and MetO forecasting quite a bit of snow throughout the day here starting around 3 or 4 in morning and going through to midnight on Friday reckon around here (Wrexham/Denbighshire/Flintshire) and into Shropshire and Staffordshire could do quite well off this.

Be careful not to drool over your keyboards guys

Can't believe I missed that was listening to music and thought it was a plane going past

Heavens have just opened here absolutely tipping it down no thunder or lightning yet though.

Send it all over here mate

On holiday up in Scotland near the Mull of Galloway seen well over a hundred flashes over the last hour and a few lightning bolts looks quite elevated here not a lot of thunder or lightning strikes.

Yep seen about 6-7 flashes of lightning and had about a dozen rumbles of thunder first storm here this year all be it not very impressive but I'll take it.

Just heard several big booms of thunder and had a couple of flashes here.

Yep it's a funny old thing weather i guess. We'll just have to see what happens really and i think we do sometimes forget about the fact that we are in the UK here and we shouldn't set our expectations to high i will include myself in that boat.

Funny how our fortunes have changed and now we are looking at GFS and GEM with the better charts with the ECM looking pretty poor it's a complete role reversal will be interesting to see if the ECM sticks with it's guns or follows the GFS, comparing the ECM and the GFS keeps the low to the North of Scotland allowing high pressure to ridge into the south admittedly it does bring the low SW over the UK before settling after that even for the North but it's still better than the ECM. Also one thing to keep an eye out for is this CFS chart for August if this remains the same then we may end up with some hot air being drawn in from the continent so maybe don't give up hopes yet if July doesn't go to plan although i do sound like i am clutching at straws here.

Yep as @blizzard81 said it's a step hopefully in the right direction and the GFS does seem to be going a bit overkill considering the ECM and UKMO now agree on a more settled spell than the GFS suggests into the week after next also if you look at this CFS chart they suggest above average pressure throughout July unless GFS knows something the MetO,BBC or ECM know then I would say it is wildly exaggerating the low pressure. And I would expect that from the signals the Azores high is bound to ridge in eventually. (Feel free to correct me if I'm talking rubbish I've only just stumbled onto the scene though )

Sounds like they are promoting ECM's run with a brief changeable period at the end of next week and through next weekend before the azores high ridges in again and sets itself up over us by the end of that week by the looks of the last ECM run. Hopefully the GFS will improve tonight but through the last two runs they seem set on promoting low pressure throughout the whole of the week after next so we'll see what it comes up with over the next few runs. The GFS is only one model though i guess as some of the other members have said but hopefully we get something akin to the ECM and Met Office's predictions for the next two weeks.

Well the GFS 18z is pretty poor shows some WAA mid next week before a breakdown on Friday from the west in the form of a LP system which may then lead to a more changeable outlook through till late in the week after next when the Azores High starts to ridge in again towards the end of July. (I'm still a bit of an amateur when it comes to reading the charts etc. So if I'm wrong at all then cut me some slack please )

Not sure to be honest @40*C but he has a youtube channel here though - https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Pretty good video here talking about the general pattern contrasts between the ECM and GFS but with the emphasis on some WAA next week

@karyo It's giving me the opposite it's heading the wrong way for me