Summerstorm

Who would have guessed it but all the cells seem to be finding any way possible of avoiding here as per swear Wrexham is cursed or something or is extremely unlucky third time this week that they just can't seem to get here Gonna need a bloody miracle here i think lol. Anyway rant over good luck everyone else

There is some cells trying to initiate up here but they are struggling to get going and are decaying pretty quickly. Not looking promising for North Wales or NW England until later when some of the cells from further south move up here or when something manages to get going. Although i suspect those further north i.e Lincolnshire,NW England,N Wales,Yorkshire etc. will get their chance tomorrow anyway.

Sucks to be you then as it's lovely down here again lol

Time to rename yourself to Mokidrunkway then?

Yeah it does. Nice chart hopefully blocking off the Atlantic from infringing into the UK unfortunately it doesn't look particularly strong but with reasonable uppers as well it looks quite pleasant

What a lovely day today still 25 out there, Probably should go rub it in on those easterners who are complaining about cloud this week

Now the cell has moved to the North of here it'll explode into life as they usually do. Also 26.7 down here second warmest in the country

Wonder if there is still a cap in place? only 3 sferics from the cell near me at the moment

Yeah temperatures are really responding with the sun out have a feeling this is all going to go bang soon hopefully the storm starved NW can get something out of this Just gone from 23 up to 26 at Hawarden as well not sure if that is a false measurement though.

Looks like there is a new cell exploding into life to the South West of it as well. Looking at lightning maps it looks like the MCS is firing off sferics in three different areas on the NE,NW and SE flanks of the system which makes me wonder whether it is splitting into three different systems maybe?

Excellent hope the upgrades continue

Pleasant start to the midday runs so far with the UKMO going for settled weather from the middle of next week. Also whoops Gavin already beat me to it lol so delete my post please mods

I'll do a quick summary of what the ensembles are showing to see if I can find any trends and to add onto my post last night on working out where we are headed over the next couple of weeks. So looking at the GEFS ensembles for the six o clock run around 8 of them develop northern blocking. But only a few do to the same degree as the ECM with some weaker blocking, This means that the influence from the Azores high is stronger than the blocking. About 40% have strongish blocking around greenland Vs 60% that have weaker or very little blocking. Looks like the odds are stacked more towards weak blocking and more HP influence although this may change from run to run. The midnight run has similar odds to the 6z run with around 4 or 5 members developing strong blocking. It would seem although the ECM has some support from the GFS ensembles it does seem to be a bit of an outlier. Although it may be supported by the ECM suite but I haven't seen them so I can't judge them. Looking at the sea level pressure on the ensembles in a graph shows the uncertainty, however the control run keeps the pressure above 1015hpa into later next week after a more unsettled spell throughout the weekend and early next week. Through the mid term it doesn't look too bad with not many precipitation spikes. Long term the prospects look promising with most of the members agreeing on height rises towards the end of the month as has been suggested throughout the week.

Alright here goes nothing I'm going to try my first piece of analysis of the charts. So don't judge me if I get anything wrong I'm by no means as knowledgeable as some of the other posters on here. Anyway back on topic... The 18z looks more settled and anticyclonic than the twelve o'clock run. Think it all hinges on whether we develop any northern blocking admitidelly in the short term the weather isn't particularly inspiring but if we don't develop the blocking then prospects look a bit better down the line. The impact is shown here : The jet is split on the 12z run which means that a trough develops out to the east. On the 18z this is very different as the jet is weaker and therefore the LP system around S Greenland is weaker, so less pressure is put on the HP system which allows it to become more dominant. If you compare this to the ECM at 216hrs : The ECM seems keen to develop strong blocking around Greenland which means that low pressure is dragged underneath,Certainly the prospects from this run look unsettled compared to the other two GFS runs. The GEM seems to be closer to the ECM run however the ICON 12z is closer to the GFS 18z run not developing any blocking. The upshot is a ridge of high pressure ridging in by later next week. Which is certainly the pick of the bunch if you are looking for pleasant weather followed by the GFS with the ECM public enemy no 1 for those of a warm disposition. So I think it's easy to see why the forecasters are labelling the forecast as a bit messy and there seems to be a lot of uncertainty between the models. It will probably take another few days to resolve where we are headed. Hope this was appreciated this someone

That'll just be the front passing through and the rain associated with it nothing convective about it probably.

As per of course always happens and we are all gonna miss out on that lot as well as it goes to the east of the NW think i'm calling a bust now unless we get lucky.

Removed from the moderate now not really surprised though tbh - http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-21

Nice for some eh

Convective weather just replied to my tweet asking about the lack of activity and they said that everything is a lot further west than what model guidance would have suggested,They also mentioned putting Cumbria into a moderate for tonight as well.

Not giving up yet but not looking great so far that Cell over Bala/Harlech way is heading straight into the Irish Sea so is not a lot of use for the NW apart from those on the coasts hopefully some new cells will fire soon though.

The cells are dying out as they go over the hills over here any ideas why?

Just spotted this here and took a quick snap with my phone. Nothing electric yet but hopefully it'll explode in to life.

Surely we eroded that warm cap with all the insolation? maybe the high pressure is still too influential still. There is still time yet though Chris fingers crossed!

Interesting looks like the ECM is toying with some height rises at T192 as well Gavin hopefully we can get some more nice settled weather soon.

Bring it on i live around there Thanks for the informative posts as well Ben.