Summerstorm

Apparently death toll is over 400 now with 20+ people missing and 40,000 displaced according to BBC article on Anak Krakatau eruption. Also height of the cone is now only 110m vs 340m before the eruption - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46707731 I'd be more worried if it was Tambora erupting as it is known for massive eruptions (i.e it's 1815 eruption which was 4x more powerful than the 1883 eruption from Krakatoa and has been dormant for over 50 years.

Yes but some sunshine or the constant cloud and rain we've had over the last week i know which i'd pick And if you compare these two charts from the Midnight run and the Midday run i'd certainly say it's a baby step in the right direction with more amplification being progged. Although we might end up back at Square one by tomorrow it's still something to hold on to and to give people some intrigue,I'd say this is less than what can be said from some of the output over the last few days. I get your point of course that it could be better but let's take it one step at a time eh

Yep looks okay some nice gaps in the clouds and only some light showers showing around the coasts and temps ranging from 5-8 degrees just saying and i'd take that after some of the recent weather.

Ahh whoops my bad edited it lol keep forgetting to remember that the air is anti-clockwise around LP systems should have looked at the upper air charts and realised that

Even if it does come off like this there is some nice WAA on the eastern side of that low. Will probably change in the morning but just taking the positives i can find

Try not to get blown away by it.. Sorry someone had to say it. On a more serious note completely dry and clear here at the moment which feels weird after 9 hours of rain you almost get used to it.

I wouldn't worry about that Frosty after all it is GFS FI and plus it hasn't latched onto the upcoming signals yet which have been mentioned by Singularity and Tamara in recent posts so expect a turn around in what it is being modelled during Mid-Late to Late August by the GFS if these signals (El Nino forcing mainly as well as other factors such as AAM) play out over the next 10-15 days if so then we may be in for a last hurrah for the end of Summer 2018 before autumn inevitably takes hold later in September.

It might seem like a load of twoddle but once you read up about some of the factors that go into it it isn't that hard to understand. To add on to what @Mike Poole said for anyone wondering what the GWO (Global Wind Oscillation) is this depicts the net wind flows based on the AAM which shows whether the inertia in the atmosphere is more westerly or easterly based which may be mentioned from time to time. Essentially there are 8 stages of the GWO with 1 through 4 indicating Low AAM and 5 through 8 indicating high AAM. At the moment we want low AAM as the La Nina state is still hanging on and this promotes the strengthening of Sub Tropical HP belts such as the AH which is why the early summer was so dominated by constant HP due to the lack of energy in the Jet Stream which i think i'm right in saying. Conversely high AAM would promote the opposite promoting blocking in higher latitudes hence the increase in blocking over Scandinavia in the last few weeks fortunately we've mainly managed to stay on the warm side of the jet mostly due to high amplitude from the MJO but this week it has dropped (MJO) and this shows the effect this can have on our weather and is why posters like @Singularity have been commenting on saying they are worried about if the AAM doesn't drop then HP may be situated further east over Scandinavia or we may have higher latitude based blocking leading to a more Northerly component to winds as shown by the ECM this evening and this is what @Tamara is saying in her post i think hopefully this seems a little more simplified. Regarding Torques actually it's the Frictional Torque (FT) that affects the speed of the atmosphere and the speed of the earths rotation. Positive FT means a speed up in the earths rotation as the winds are westerly this = Lower AAM. Conversely negative FT is a net easterly wind and this helps to increase AAM. Mountain Torque or MT is slightly different and depends on the pressure systems on the sides of large mountain ranges such as the Himalayas and the Rockies. For example HP to the West and LP to the East means that the range is forcing easterly momentum speeding up the earths rotation the opposite means Westward torque and a slow down in the earth rotation. The two Torques are part of calculating the AAM the clue to forecasting using these factors is to know what effect each of these has on different areas of the atmosphere for example knowing the affect of each stage of the MJO leads to and how this affects pressure patterns around the Northern Hemisphere as well as the affect the AAM has on this as well as tropical forcing in the oceans and this all needs to come together to make a forecast which i admire Tamara for all the more as this an extremely complex field of weather in which I've barely scraped the barrel. It might seem like a load of twoddle but once you read up about some of the factors that go into it it isn't that hard to understand. But a quick read of the thread for learning the teleconnections by BB1963 is useful to understanding this. Hopefully i didn't get anything too wrong here and that people appreciate this and it helps them to in some way gain an idea of what some of this means. Cheers James. P.S Teleconnections experts please feel free to correct me if i'm wrong with something

Yeah hopefully the NW gets something I'm in Stafford with Grandparents so hoping something happens over here!

In other words it's been a bit crap I don't mind the rain but we've had hardly any sun apart from on Thursday which is quite depressing I know I shouldn't complain after the last month and a half but it's been mediocre at best the last 10 days or so.

Surprisingly that run isn't actually top of the pile for some areas of the country for here one of them manages +19 850 hpa temps and nearly half of them show 14/15 850hpa on the 27th which is impressive seems like there is a reasonable amount of support in the ensembles for this scenario,although it is still 8/9 days out so we have to keep our expectations low in case it doesn't come off but it would be impressive indeed. Imagine the scenes now if the pub run ups the ante even more

Yep and now the monsoon has arrived lol.

How about you stop moaning and constantly posting about it here and enjoy the sun when it comes out? I get it might be annoying but you don't need to moan every other hour i know other individuals moan about it as well but they get on with it and don't fill the forum with negativity.

And obviously because it isn't the south not a word from any of the major news outlets... It's almost like NW England doesn't exist

How about you all stop moaning already,As far as i can see it's better than having lows barrelling through with constant rain and said 'Easterly' winds that certain individuals were moaning about so how about people be more positive for once like Frosty or take a fairly balanced stance like MWB or Singularity then maybe people would pay more attention to what you say instead of looking for the worst things you can find and having a little moan about it. Also thanks to @Djdazzle for backing up my point. To keep this on topic i'll also add on my favourite chart from the UKMO which looks pleasant enough in my eyes with most of the country fairly settled with pressure above 1020mbars across the country and 1025 in the West. To be subjective i'll also post the GFS chart at 144hrs which is arguably the worst of the bunch if you are looking for settled weather but is by no means bad with the LP system further south meaning less influence from the AH with maybe some unsettled weather and a bit more cloud just about breaching into the far N and NW. Although later in the run it does improve with more influence from the AH although the pattern does look flatter. The ECM is in the middle and looks good throughout until a low infringes in from the NW at 240hrs but that is a long way off and will probably change. The GEM is closest to the UKMO at 144hrs and looks good like the ECM run and stays settled throughout. All in all the four runs are quite similar at 144hrs which shows reasonable confidence in these solutions which is promising for those who are looking for some decent weather with the unsettled spell only really lasting a few days in the South with the north remaining unsettled a little longer. It also shows the GFS' tendency to overblow LP systems with the central pressure of the system to the NW at 985mbars on the GFS run with the ECM,GEM and UKMO at around 1000-995 mbars in that case allowing for it's bias assuming it is incorrect then it would trend more towards the other models. As some of the others have suggested the ECM has changed massively compared to yesterdays run if you compare the two : As you can tell the ECM run handles the LP system over the weekend differently compared to previous runs and the upshot is more HP influence from the AH. @Mike Poole Comparing charts i'd say around 192/216 hrs otherwise they all look fairly similar they seem to diverge at this point with the ECM increasing LP influence and the GEM continuing with it's theme of HP dominance throughout next week. Although i'm no expert so don't take my word as gospel lol. Finally before anyone laughs at me for using the GEM have a look at it's verification stats then come back and you'll see why i'm using it. I know people like @Singularity have already done some excellent analysis but i thought i'd add some of mine in and all in all to round off my post i'd say things look positive if you want to see more spells of decent weather over the next couple of weeks. This took 20 minutes to type so i hope people appreciate my analysis

24c here honestly surprised nothing has fired here just don't think there is enough instability here or we haven't been able to break the cap yet.

Well it's already 22c down here so it's gonna be a fairly warm one today. Hope some convective activity can kick off later.

If it's any consolation the GFS run this morning is a bit of an outlier compared to the ensembles from the midnight and six o clock runs with around 70-75% of the runs showing high pressure in charge around 240hrs and from around 192hrs at least 60% of them showing HP starting to make in roads hopefully this trend continues within the ensembles on the mid morning run then we shouldn't need to worry about it.

Lol you're very pessimistic at the moment Moki What has wound me up is all those in the East and SE complaining when for once in a blue moon we are getting the best weather when 80% or 90% of the time they get all the heat and sunshine. Also @draztik refer to my sentence above i think he is kinda taking the pee out of some of those moaning about this weeks weather and is one upping them.

Don't know what this cloud is you are talking about seen hardly any today

Yeah your post earlier had the same problem i'll try and post the +144 hrs UKMO chart now to see if i have a problem as well as the chart doesn't look too shabby especially compared to the GFS output at the same time frame with it having none of the blocking the GFS is suggesting. It also puts less influence on the trough in the Mid Atlantic allowing the AH to be a bit more influential. Would be interesting to see what the extended chart of the UKMO says compared to the GFS at 168hrs also to see whether the atlantic breaks through or whether the AH can hold on.

Yeah got blitzortung up to look at the strikes Looks like it is trying to back build as well i think looking at the NW radar.

Here is a few shots of the storm that just went over here.

Yeah agreed nice little storm hopefully it reaches Chris. How much lightning is it putting out now?

Cell just passed through here and i'm happy now very heavy rain/hail in it's core with some huge rain drops with thunder and sferics every 30 seconds or so.