Summerstorm

Don't need that here lol no mountains in the way here Hopefully it reaches you guys too though Hopefully we can get some sunshine as well as all those dull dreary days except yesterday are depressing.

Torrential hail shower here more like a hail blizzard with the wind. Would rather it was snow but it's impressive all the same

Yep still looking tasty or should i say toasty.. on the 12z run Karl But let's not get carried away yet eh

Just for fun of course as it is out in FI but here is the uppers chart to go with it. I will coin the famous phrase and say what could go wrong

Hi Guys thought I'd post after lurking around and reading the posts must say I've learnt a lot reading through the thread so hat's off to @Bring Back1962-63 for creating this. So I'll ask some questions now to help my understanding of some of the teleconnections if someone could me with them. So my take is with the MJO progressing through Phases 6 and 7 that this should be beneficial in regards to HLB, however the low AAM means that we may not reap the benefits if I'm reading what has been said right? And the GWO is related back to the AAM with Phases 1/2/3 at low AAM and 4/5/6 with high AAM. I presume we need a rise in AAM before we see more blocking? There is a few more questions I want to ask but I don't want to clutter up this thread too much.

Ensembles looking good on the 18z an example of the upper air temps for North Wales and there are some pretty cold ones in there.

Should be some more on the way in a little while looks like a band of snow is on it's way.

Had some reasonably heavy snowfall and now there is a covering of snow here.

Down to -5.9 here last night was pretty cool out there this morning and a pretty hard frost got some photos of the frost this morning. Second coldest night of the winter so far.

Down to -5.9 here last night was pretty cool out there this morning and a pretty hard frost got some photos of the frost this morning.

Not quite i think you are looking for the red colours on the 10hpa charts unless i'm not mistaken i'm no expert though. Should look like something like this - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3144/gfsnh-2012122800-10-192_mzr4.png

Can some send the snow over please i would hail the opportunity for some (no pun intended)

The hail is doing a nice job cooling us down here evaporative cooling means that temp is down to 2.9c already here from 4.5 around half an hour ago.

Yeah really heavy hail here got a covering of it at least.

Same here but surrounded by snow and stuck in the sleet but temps are dropping now so both of us might be in with a shot in a while. DP is still above 0 here which is a problem for the time being.

Rain here at the moment but enjoy hopefully it will cool off later and we can get some snow later. Edit : Now the rain has arrived here temperature has risen to 5 degrees here and wind has changed to a SW direction so don't think I'll get anything till later this evening as dewpoints as too high here. Good luck everyone else though!

Not really just had a look at the radar and it's mostly snow over high ground apart from the precipitation that is showing around Llainfairfechan otherwise looks like mostly sleet on the NW Radar.

Well got up to 5.5 inches here and just to demonstrate how close a call for us here it was looking at the photos some of you maybe had up to 2 inches on the Wirral? just over 30 miles away and we had maybe more than double the amount some of you guys here. I will freely admit i got lucky today though.

Still snowing here around 5.5 inches of snow at the moment which isn't bad considering we missed the worst of it here in the North East.

Firstly yeah i'm aware the problem i have with Wales regional is that they are all from the south of Wales and very few members from the North post in there anyway maybe around 30-40 from the South and 5 in the North say i wonder whether they should divide it up perhaps. Secondly i recollect that a few of the other members in here class my area as kind of in the North West anyway i am like 5 miles from the border anyway! .Also my post was to demonstrate how marginal this is because by the sounds of it go another 20 miles north of here and you have around half of the snow cover. Also i won't be a grammar nazi and point out your slight spelling mistakes there

Still snowing here got around 10cm of snow now maybe more or slightly less but very heavy right now but with small flakes so not expecting much of a top up here.

For what it's worth it's around 20 miles south of where the GFS predicted it to be on it's 18z at 3am and doing some maths it's moved 32 miles or so over the last hour so theoretically if I keeps moving at the same speed then at 3 am it should be around 60 miles north of where it is now. Which could put it as far north as Omagh or Armagh big emphasis on COULD though! Sorry got the ruler out there

Not sure really but sounds like it @CreweCold could you help me out here? I'm a bit of a noob really when it comes to this so don't necessarily take what I am saying as true

About 50 miles off NI I think border is around the Ballyconnell area. Think you are all clucthing at straws that it carries on into NI.

Same here really still forecasted like 7 hours of heavy snow anyway but it's looking very marginal little further north would be great.