Summerstorm

Still think you've got a chance especially later in the night as some storms form further east. Plus these are only snapshots really but the bulk of precipitation is further West. As shown on the Arome charts above there are plenty of showers around and there is a chance that you might catch the eastern half of a system. @Robert Lewis Maybe you'll get lucky i don't remember much of that day as i think it mostly avoided this area.

Here is the Hirlam 18z run's take Followed by the Arpege The Arome is yet to come out yet.

Oh yeah i agree for sure they ramped the possibility up in their video forecasts and social media but that's not enough and people could be at risk. Also @Met4Cast I'd say that forecast is a solid shout with some scattered showers elsewhere as you mention. Certainly ties in with what i've seen from the Met Office although maybe we'll be able to resolve it in more detail tomorrow. It may also become a nowcast situation as either of the systems could correct further east or west.

Maybe they aren't confident enough to pin an area down yet but getting warnings out early is important.

To be honest from what I can see from the latest Icon,Arpege,Arome and Hirlam runs I think that moderate should be extended further west into parts of Wales and the North West although maybe I'm wrong and spouting rubbish but the latest Higher Res run i can find the Icon 18z keeps it further west. Although the ECM has a much wider spread event so maybe that's why they are putting out moderates out further east.

Looking at the Met Office forecast they are suggesting showers around 7 or 8 in the evening that may occur further east before the main plume pushes up and triggers a larger band of Showers/Storms across the SW moving up through the Welsh border and West Midlands and into the NW. They are also suggesting some scattered showers early morning i.e 6-7am across EA and the SE so not surprising he has issued a risk further east as the potential is there for the odd shower or storm to initiate over there hence why he has covered these areas but with a less likely risk. However still looking likely that the main risk of the worst impacts falls into the purple and pink boxes from what i can interpret unless a massive shift happens. Good luck though hope some of you others get some as well, but i haven't had a proper storm for so long as they keep missing by 10-20 miles and it annoys me when some of you complain about missing them when some of you have been treated to some amazing storms over the last few years.

Way out on it's own though the Arpege,Hirlam and Arome don't go this far east as well as the UKV posted by Mapantz. That's a big shift compared to these other highly regarded hi-res models so i would wait and see what it's next run puts out compared to the other models, As they initiate storms over Bristol/South Wales before heading into Wales and the West Midlands and the NW. At least that's my take on it and we are barely a day and a half out now i doubt it will shift that much and that is a shift of 50-100miles. Plus i don't trust EURO 4 as much as i do the other models maybe it will meet in the middle but i'm unsure of that.

Chucking it down here with rain although nothing electrical was hoping for a surprise but don't think it's going to happen.

Absolutely tipping down in here Wrexham NE Wales but nothing electrical with it at the moment. Not expecting anything really to be honest though.

Big display of Noctilucent's tonight very visible to the eye.

Pretty heavy shower here and a few rumbles of thunder. Not many Sferics though.

You would be correct the Operational really has been terrible recently constantly chucking out outliers. - Never mind you have edited your post to include a graph of the ENS.

Well the ECM OP run is on the lower end of it's members for North Wales/North Midlands area. The pressure chart shows it is right at the bottom so clearly an outlier there and a more settled outlook is the more favoured solution in comparison. Upper air temps wise it is less of an outlier but obviously showing it cooling down after the plume next weekend/early next week, however there are some warmer members in there which are probably more akin to the GFS solution although this maybe a bit of a temperature outlier in itself anyway. Also another pressure chart from Greenland and the OP run is very clearly an outlier here as well developing heights more aggressively than most of the other members which is the likely reason why the run turns unsettled towards the end as the ECM OP run tries to develop Northern Blocking and LP develops underneath it instead of a Scandi/Azores HP combination shown on the GFS. The mean and the majority of other members have pressure dropping gradually over Greenland as next week goes on so i feel the ECM may have thrown a slightly rogue run out unless this signal builds in the other models over the next few days.

If it's any consolation the GEM looks a bit better though than the GFS Even though they do handle the low a bit differently even so it still looks a bit pants.

In York on holiday for a few days and lots of thunder and sferics here and some torrential rain.

18z run of the GFS going for something a little different with a plume at around 10 days away. It's also making less out of the LP system heading towards the UK from the Baltic with it never really reaching us before high pressure begins to extend it's influence. This maybe is more akin to what @Singularity is imagining with the second half of April being warm. Also the models maybe beginning to sniff out a more sensible (maybe not a plume and a more settled setup) way forward although this is only one run and may prove to be completely speculative in the long run with the ECM being right although it does look a little extreme and maybe once again we are looking for half way house solutions.

Thanks for dredging up the statistics Mike was going to comment something along these lines as well. I don't have the balls to call the summer myself but i appreciate you having a go.. Although the other do have a point that there can be more extreme injections of heat with higher temps in August these often seem to be plume set ups and generally don't last as long compared to some longer settled and warmer spells in July that sometimes come off. Anyway moving on from that debate now i'm going to do some analysis of the model output from today so far and hopefully i make some sense As others have said the ECM goes from this : To this in 24 hours : Seems a bit progressive as others have said and these Scandi/Euro highs usually like to cling as long as they can. Although it could be on to something who knows! Compare this to the ICON at 180 hrs and it has the HP a little more in charge and is a little less progressive albeit we can't see the 192hrs chart but i'd imagine the LP wouldn't be as influential as with the LP system than the ECM. The GFS seems to be signing to the tune of the ECM also although maybe it's a little less progressive with the low and it is attacking at a slightly different angle and that could make all the difference. The question is are they being overly progressive and emphasising the LP system and Westerly's too much and resorting to usual bias or have they latched onto a trend for it to become more unsettled after the weekend before maybe another similar spell occurs down the line. The second option is of course a middle ground where the LP isn't being overegged by the Models or final option is they are overdoing Westerly signals yet again and HP will remain in charge for the foreseeable. All to play for at the moment as the summer is still some time away and things may set up more favourably for a more prolonged spell if this upcoming settled spell doesn't last down the line.

I wasn't saying it will be the same pattern i was saying that the model was showing some similarities : key word 'Similarities' i.e. that's why i mentioned plumes and thunderstorms as it should be a different pattern to last year although it's possible to have some similarities. Also i don't recollect making a call on the summer as that chart only features April,May and June and i explicitly mentioned that you might be able to take away vague patterns from the chart for May which is only a few weeks away now. Secondly i didn't say that it was set in stone I am by no means calling summer and i am not knowledgeable enough to call a vague pattern on summer based upon teleconnections and or analogues based upon things like the MJO or QBO. Also i was mentioning the musings of some of the other members but i wasn't saying what they said was gospel, Finally a last point is that soon you could call a vague pattern as once the final warming happens over the next few weeks we may start to get an idea of what may happen over the summer as things start to set up and we see the general sort of set ups that may reoccur over the summer. Sorry if my post came over as saying it was going to be the exact same and i agree that it's highly unlikely hence why i was suggesting a similar set up with slightly different details which could lead to a very different feel i.e more humid. I like all types of weather to clarify but at the moment i'm not looking for cold or snow anymore hence why i'm intrigued in the remote possibility of it being warm and possibly stormy. I don't want rain and unsettled cool weather from the North or East i will agree there are signs but it's nothing more than that as far as i'm concerned and any unsettled weather is still at least a week away in which everything could change and we are talking about a Sceuro high setup which can be notoriously difficult to move as well. Finally Exeter have been useless this winter and they may cotton on to something warm next month and then drop it again.

Think it would still warm up just might take longer than some of the other models are suggesting maybe a halfway house between what the models have been suggesting and what the UKMO is saying?

Not sure where you are getting unsettled conditions from Matt from what i've seen from looking at the last two GFS runs.GEM and ECM it all looks settled and benign to me with temps a little above average maybe more if we can pull some warmer air in. Personally i'd say your post is a bit misleading as the only signs i can see of settled weather are out in FI and won't come off exactly like that. I would also like to echo the thoughts of @Frosty. and agree with him unless something all of a sudden changes. Finally a little something to add model discussion wise is this output from the Beijing Climate Centre which nailed the forecast for last year calling warm/hot through the late spring and early summer. To me this looks similar to last year and considering the merit it has from last summer i'm inclined to have some belief in it not saying it's going to happen like this it just seems a reasonable fit to what some people have been talking about. Featuring lots of HP around the UK and just to the north, Although as some of the other posters like @Mike Poole have been musing there is some influence from LP to the south maybe suggesting more plumes this year and some more thundery weather. Although it is a little early to call June yet although we may be able to pick out vague patterns for May now and if this comes off it looks promising. As always the caveat that we are dealing with long range models here needs to applied and they can be hopeless or they can nail it or be somewhere in between, but i rate this model quite highly as it is usually better than the likes of the CFS.

What crappy weather it is can we have spring back please i wanted this 3 weeks ago not now.

Suns been out most the day and we are up to 18c here hopefully more of this to come.

Was thinking that too the evolution just looks a bit odd and thought it was going to create some HLB at 324/336 hrs but obviously this all academic at this range of course. At least we are seeing something to look though as the last few model runs haven't been great to say the least.

Time to bring out the Barbecues In all seriousness hopefully something appears soon as others have been saying maybe these 'odd' outputs are about to lead to something interesting and they are sniffing something out then again that's been said before.

Caption sorted now not sure a certain individual will be too happy when he sees it