StormLoser
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Posts posted by StormLoser
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Today reminds me of the old union, NALGO. Not a lot goes on. Even Estofex is silent.
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I was pleasantly surprised to see a yellow storm warning arrive for parts of the SE tomorrow. Stepped out to 30c at 10:00am today, and higher humidity. 30c at 10:00am!
Yesterday's 37c here in Reigate was a dry heat and it reminded me of south Tenerife. Today has a higher humidity.
Settling down for some storm watching over the next day or so. Hopefully my no-go zone will see some action.
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The worst case scenario (and therefore most likely) is that low will do a quick bend left, track across Northern France where storms remain in the Channel, before exiting north east and providing a famous East England sailing ship experience....
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25 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
Some cross-model agreement (ECM and GEM 12z and GFS 12/18z) that Tuesday could be the one to watch for the potential thundery breakdown. I'd quite like GFS to slow down though as it has things getting going in the SW from as early as late morning!
Usual caveats apply to this, before anyone tells me it's a week away. I know that. I'm just pointing out the rare agreement by the models at 7 days.
I was poking around the GFS for Tuesday and wondering why the Met Office finished their heat warning on Monday. If the GFS model works out, Monday night and Tuesday morning could see some very high UK temperatures before the whole lot breaks down.
I'm no expert, but I think Sunday is too early for the MO warning.
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Heathrow, 26.5 due to unforecasted cloud cover!
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Yep - rumbling around Reigate. I can see the flashes from the Horsham storm high up.
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We have storms passing through the Reigate area. Elevated lightning, wind and a 'queasy' sky. Odd storms, these!
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What a naff day, so far, here in Reigate. Hot, humid and full of convection this morning. Now windy and cool with overcast. I'm not sure that stuff out west is going to come our way, nor am I sure of any forecasts right now.
My feet are cold.
Looks like there's a centre of a small low running up the front, to my elevated levels of thickness. Centred around Swindon and Salisbury right now (4:30pm).
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Stepped out expecting hot sunshine and was most surprised to see a sky with oodles of potential! Way to go Met Office - your 1:00am forecast is already in pieces! And Estofex is looking likely, too. Could be an interesting weekend.
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I'm putting my money on a discombobulated Kent Clipper with slow wiggly mid-level contusions for Saturday evening.
Yes, that's nonsense. But our garden is so parched I'll eagerly accept any rain.
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Whilst we have showers to the south of Reigate, once again we seem to have a cap over the London and adjacent areas. I often see this in effect, and it is pronounced at the moment. Cloud growth here is stunted with clear skies above.
I expect it will change... Looks like that convergence will ease north over the next three hours.
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I've just read Mr Finnis' forecast. I'm not so sure about the 50% in the SE. Two reasons: first, I live here so that puts a lid on most activity ( ), second, I agree the low level westerly is moist as I just been out filling the bird feeders in it. But there's an almighty lot of cloud about, and with small showers dotted around, surface heating may be poor.
My expectation: small, heavy precipitation showers with occasional lightning.
Estofex is also silent - not a good prognosis there for severe storms to my mind.
Happy observing everyone!
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Is it just me, or for the South East does the word "BUST" over this evening's so-called storms resonate with anyone?
The SE shows every sign of blowing out and not going anywhere.
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1 minute ago, viking_smb said:
looks like the trinity house tender patricia out there.
Has anyone told that boat it is supposed to be in the water, and not hovering over it?
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1 hour ago, StormLoser said:
Why do I get an uneasy feeling this isn't going to work out? I'm not going to call it a (unmentionable 4 letter word of total disappointment popular in this Forum) but...
I'm not feeling the potential over southern UK. A lot of the earlier unstable cumulus has vanished from here and I could be forgiven for thinking it is March.
I do hope I am wrong. And as for a trough...ermmmm...
Ohhh....THAT trough. Looks like it is pepping back up as it comes on shore. Estofex forecast for the UK is mostly for serious rainfall and squally gusts. Not so sure about electrification (no...not Network Rail....)
Watching with interest.
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Why do I get an uneasy feeling this isn't going to work out? I'm not going to call it a (unmentionable 4 letter word of total disappointment popular in this Forum) but...
I'm not feeling the potential over southern UK. A lot of the earlier unstable cumulus has vanished from here and I could be forgiven for thinking it is March.
I do hope I am wrong. And as for a trough...ermmmm...
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While the mid/upper layers of air progress very slowly northwards, we have a strong, gusty low level wind pouring across Surrey from the north-east.
Interesting to watch.
Visions of nice rotating supercells and tornados spring to mind for later on. However, this is the UK... (Oh no! A plastic garden chair just blew over...!!! )
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The Cherbourg peninsula has some very heavy rain and solid lightning. Very bright flashes on the web cams - remind me of positive CG they are so solitary and intense.
The storm system there has grown to a bit of a monster. It will be interesting to see what happens to it... (like, 40 degrees left, scoot across Channel and arrive in Reigate? ).
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I feel a Kent clipper coming on....
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The radar over France looks interesting.... 19:30pm our time.
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14 minutes ago, Petorious said:
He rang me back 5 minutes later after he'd gone around the houses electrics checking, everything looks ok, must of been a very very close hit.
It's still going strong and has been for hours, gutting as never a good storm when I go up there especially with their view over the hills to the coast!
That's a relief!
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12 minutes ago, Petorious said:
Just on the phone to my dad, he lives in Pentrefelin, North Wales, I could hear it lashing on the conservatory and the constant booming, he had to end call as he shouted "We've been hit"!!!!!
This is half way between Criccieth and Porthmadog, he said its the most violent storm he's seen there in the 7 years of him and his mrs living there.
Hope they are OK. Sounds a fantastic storm but no fun when damage occurs. Let us know how they get on please.
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A nice dry day with sunny spells for Reigate, said Mr Met Office.
So I did my washing and hung it out - only to see lines of showers marching in. How much tax do we pay these folks? I should have taken some time to make my own forecast today.
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I've been poking around the Met Office's forecasts for Friday night/Saturday early hours. I don't see there's much chance of anything for the SE. But I'm hoping from Reigate I might get to see some elevated distant lightning to the south from storms that populate the Channel..
The French webcams should be entertaining. Saturday night to Sunday I guess is our best bet. As a numpty, that's my outlook!
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Hmm, confused set of models for today. Three different forecasts! I've got my eye on the Channel developments but currently they are drying as they move north. Meanwhile, the sun is out here, and clouds are clearing so we have some ground heating in progress. Quite a pleasant morning, actually, after the 40c (on my weather thermometer) we had on Tuesday!
I'll wait and watch, and rain is badly needed anyway in our tumbleweed-filled garden.