StormLoser

Damp and wet in Reigate with our own area of rain passing over. Not much chance of any thunderstorms down here, even when the sun comes out. Hope others of you have luck!

I'm trying to forecast for Reigate tomorrow as we have someone coming over. I can't get a handle on it because I'm not happy with the pressure slope to the south and east. I think it is 'under-represented' on current forecasts. I'm currently thinking the more active areas will be north of London and we will get an occasional light shower. The passing occluding fronts are more likely to offer cloud down here.

Some may call this luck. I call it "I am the gap between storms!

Well I'm delighted to report my fake Met Office Updated Forecast for Reigate was 100% accurate. The void has remained in place. From drizzle, grey cloud, the sun finally peeped out enough for me to watch a progression of interesting weather head westwards. For those of you who missed my forecast, here it is again: MO Updated — Postimages POSTIMG.CC The tea leaves are ready for my next forecast.

Ah-hah. The line has become visible with showers popping up. It runs just north of Southampton and curves down towards Brighton to the east. Not sure about the West Country - not living there it is a bit off my radar (sorry - sheepish smile). Still murky and cloudy in Reigate. No sign of the sun though it may start breaking through soon. That could explain why showers directly south of us are not popping up?

Grey, humid and damp here in Reigate with the chance to catch a bit of rain drifting by. Little chance of any sun breaking through to drive convection. I suppose I could put a fan heater out on the patio to give it a boost? I see there's yet another small 'Kent Clipper' making its way north west! With Estofex silent, and the Met Office about as reliable as a bit of seaweed, I'm not holding out much hope of any action today. Let's hope it changes.

That's heading right for me. Might lessen the steady rain and total lack of any electrical activity. I think it's just a trough merging into the north-pushing cold front. Looks good on the radar! Looking further, it is compressing stuff as it progresses west...

Drizzle in Reigate. Some heavier rain to come soon. No storms. Normal summer BBQ weather! The Met Office should issue a new kind of Weather Warning: using a light grey colour. It would be for "Bit wet out - best take a coat."

Here is an amended Met Office Yellow Warning for Monday: Correction for Reigate.

I see a few folks recounting storms in the 1980s. I recall the monster of 1981 - think it was this 5 August event: I worked in Nutfield, along the A25 at that time, and my friend and I had arrived at work in an absolute torrential downpour around 08:00am. The sky cleared and we thought we were in for a nice hot day. Were we wrong! Around 11:00am the sky started to cloud over and it grew dark and darker. We could hear thunder off to the west. A colleague called me to go and look out the west windows where she said the Jehova's Witnesses would be gathering on the hill tops. The sight will remain with me. A wall of pitch black with a multitude of cloud-ground strikes. The whole thing stretched south to north. And a helicopter flew really low in a hurry over our place as it headed for Redhill aerodrome to land as quickly as possible. It continued to get dark until it was virtually night, with only a glimmer of light on the southern horizon. The storm front struck and the skies emptied onto us. What a downpour, with loads of lightning. It lasted an hour, maybe hour and a half. Naturally the power went off. And then it was pretty much gone. Now, in those days I knew nothing about storms. I was still wet about the ears, so to speak. But I remember this system was in the evening news over flooding and damage in London. Some of you will probably remember it more accurately. But to my mind it remains one of the most apocryphal storms I've ever seen, and I've see a good few big storms since then.

That Reims storm is awesome! Not sure I'd want to be anywhere but in a bunker with all that lightning.... I had a look in on St Malo out to the west in France where there are some heavy showers passing through and heading to the UK (if they survive). Blitzorg shows they are electrified (Netweather does not, for some odd reason). TBH, I doubt there is any chance of anything for the UK tonight other than a few showers. But we live in hope - the stuff moving north from the westward parts of France might survive the Channel?

I was idly looking at the Met Office's local south east forecast that merrily says it will chuck it down from around 1:00am onwards. As for Friday, it sinks into Disney's La La Land. I don't see this rain. There's a bit pottering around NW France that appears to be drying as it leaves the coasts. Local pressure here is rising, not falling. The low is heading off to the North Sea as most other forecasts agree. So tomorrow's a drenching for Dogger Land. What are the Met Office smoking these days? I'm really struggling with the UK forecast the next 24 hours. I simply cannot agree with it.

It's a shame it was a bust for most, but forecasting this stuff is a nightmare. I'd rather be grumpy from a bust than caught out without a camera. Keep the forecasts coming!

I said earlier today. I'll say it again: Kent Clipper. I'm disappointed to find my guess was right. What is it with our 2020-2021 weather systems that does this? It is SO frustating!

Looked in on the Brighton web cam. One flash of lightning in the distance and 20 cars going past. Are you sure there's much happening down there, tomp456? Usually I can see the flashes from Brighton in the upper atmosphere here in Reigate!

Reigate. 11:30pm. I've seen a smaller bust on Jayne Mansfield. This is ridiculous. It was interesting watching the garden being watered.

Rain's about to reach Reigate. I'm sitting out enjoying some slightly cooler air before it arrives. I see most of the lightning activity is well south and east, probably heading for...................... Kent.

Here in Reigate we're getting top cloud stretching over us and a dirty sky from the south. that Channel monster is encroaching. Hmm - looks like it could be fun! Hatches battened down. But no way to tell the kitten sunbathing on the path will be washed away soon...

I've just digested Nick Finnis' Netweather forecast. Thanks, Nick (and also Dan). Could be in for an interesting Kent Clipper..!

Estofex. Yep. Kent Clipper. I've lived through enough disappointment to feel this is likely to be another bust. I only pray I am wrong, and that I do get to see some action around my area as Dan forecasts. Then I can worry about my house being struck by lightning. Keeps the mind occupied and requires a few beers (while watching) to keep calm!

I hope this forecast works, and it's not another dud (no disrespect to the forecasters - the weather does what it does). My local Reigate high-pressure zone usually means storms actively avoid me. Anyhow, I saw this interesting article today, that I thought is quite pertinent: Losing our thunder: why the UK is seeing fewer thunderstorms | UK weather | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Warm air from Spain usually means thundery days will follow – but changing weather patterns are making this less likely

A Kent Clipper in the making.

How depressing to see the weather approach Reigate then make a sharp right to the east. First decent chance of the year and already the trend is settling in. Perhaps I'll move to Kent....

Morning all! Coming out of hibernation here after a long, miserable winter. Hope you are all OK Covid-wise! The bright echoes moving into the North Sea caught my eye. I see that agrees with Estofex nicely. The Met Office are hinting at the possibility of thundery showers in SE this evening. What's our chances?

Saw your question and remember an incident in our previous Surrey cottage. It had snowed a great deal (when it used to, in the early '80s) and night temperatures dropped to something in the order of -20C. We were sitting indoors and hearing a very loud "thud!" noise every few minutes. Coming through the front room wall. It was a few days later we realised the Victorian cast-iron downpipe had filled up with ice from melting snow. Frozen at the bottom, and then all the way to the roof. The noise had been the sound of the iron cracking open along the length of the pipe!