scotty_boy_winter

Yep! But this year isn't set up for the snow we had last year. Mild old winter I feel

This is the type of pattern my met office relative was alluding to. Very tough pattern to shift, even more so when the atmosphere is so ripe for polar vortex development! I think patience is going to be key. Winter could be tough viewing this winter.....I feel we've been spoilt the past 2 years

Too right (:

No probs, sorry paul, just defending myself but probably the wrong place to do it. Maybe a private message would have sufficed I think the state of the atmosphere is right for this kind of set-up. I hope I'm wrong however as I look forward to the winter snow!

Very true, all opinions. Nice to see you understand The Winter will tell us who's was correct

Again what you believe has no bearing whatsoever

I don't care whether you believe me or not. I don't post for gratification. I post what I believe is relevant information as another clue to possible weather come winter

I think you are bang in the money there! The ozone levels for one will only strengthen the vortex November and into a lot of December in my eyes for now

The last part of your post Is very childish Paul, there's no place for thoses sorts of comments on your post on here.

Will do liam, usually meet up when I have a free Monday for a game of poker, will be interesting to see how quickly opinions change as we get deeper into winter and the weather patterns unfold

Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times. As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times. As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards Sorry guys my Internet connection is shocking!!

Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times. As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards

Not really, the met believe this too and the European bodies forecast mentioned this too. As I said it could all be wrong. No one can make an accurate forecast this far out. It's all opinion based on current data. Again I hope its wrong I love the cold and snow

It's not about what's right and wrong. It could be wrong and I hope it is...im a cold and snow lover. I'm just giving you a heads up on what our countries professionals opinion is. (again not their forecast) their opinion was in the region of 80-90 per cent confident. Doesn't meant it will be correct however of course but it's good info to know considering their expertise

They aren't forecasting anything and also won't do. A close family friend of mine is a senior forecaster (can't mention names) the general "consensus and opinion" is wet and windy will be the dominant theme from what I was told Monday night at his house

Yeah I agree, I don't think the set-up is going to play ball for high latitude blocking. It looks a poor set-up on Americas side and also the stratosphere could be against us. I noticed a distinct lack of ozone this year which will aid the polar vortex. Things starting to look like the late 90's early 00's again

This was the general theme of things that the senior forecasters were speaking about at the met The weather over the other side of the Atlantic will have a massive bearing on our winter this year

I think we are seeing the building blocks to a met office anticipated Atlantic dominated winter

He hasn't made an outlandish claim nor brought out a forecast to the media or public. This is what is being talked about in confidence. The met will not bring out an early forecast again as they have stated. Just giving you an early taste on there current "opinions" As for mr madden. I know this guy and he has no meteorogical background. He got an A in geography when he did his A levels so don't believe a word he says. He is an absolute conman, if anyone's reading his forecasters they are wasting there time

I agree with what your saying but independent forecaster will get lucky with forecasts. The fact of the matter is the met are more "likely" to get there forecast right more than a website like this one and as such comments from mr Hudson should be taken very very very seriously. I would suggest with how strongly worded his opinion was and how sure he was that this year could well be a mild one. It's very unusual to hear him nail his colours to the mast like that. Also I have a relative who works with the senior forecasters. Their general unofficial consensus is they are 80 - 90 % confident of an Atlantic dominated winter [quote name=Aaron' timestamp='1319069495' post='2147165] Look at how many times the Met Office make a boob of their forecasts from time to time - big fancy computers don't mean you're any better. Plus, they're not forecasting anything, they stopped that after making a giant mess of their previous long-range one, compared to some independent ones which got last year almost spot on. Nobody is saying this winter will be colder than last (which overall was not even very cold), though it CANNOT be ruled out. Anything is possible, things can change so quickly in the world of weather and nothing is written in stone.

He quoted that and was questioned by the look north team and he replied, look I guarantee we will not be colder than last year and went on to call the cold weather forecasts by some amateur website/forecasters as ridiculous I.e net-weather, two and so on. You have to agree that some of the forecast attempts by small websites over what professionals and supercomputers the Matt office use is a little bit outrageous? Like a non league footballer claiming he's better than messi? Lol

Pws's track record is shamblolic! I have no idea why businesses pay these clueless guys because I get the feeling there knowledge is very limited! I think some of the senior forecasters on here I.e Gp, John Holmes are some of the best in the country James madden only writes what people want to hear, his knowledge is very limited. I can see why people are quoting him as its what people like to believe might happen. If you heard Paul Hudson on look north he said based on current projections from the european weather agency that there is 0% chance of this year being colder than the last. Watch the episode on the net. He is very confident of this and don't forget he is a trained professional unlike James madden and unlike everyone else on here

I've core data back up my view as well as old transcripts. So my view is a proven, scientific one. I find it a little strange and almost dillusional the fact you are trying to disprove an already proven fact. It's like trying to tell people gravity doesn't exist and no matter how many times people tell you it's a proven fact you still feel obliged to argue the toss..

There has never been a period in earths history that warming and melting has happened so quick. If you are going to quote, then quote actual facts not sensationalistic, political like statements. Are you on a wind up or do you just have no understanding of the arctic?

I know I've been criticised for criticising some of your posts in the best SB but while I know you love hurricanes and extreme weather (as do I) comments like sadly are a little narrow minded and worrying to say the least.