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Everything posted by jonboy
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October 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests
jonboy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Indian summer 13.0 and 105mm of rain please -
There needs to a scientific explanation for these pockets of extreme heat and extreme rainfall. CO2 levels doesn't do it for me because these are pretty constant over the last few years with minor percentage movement. Whereas the levels of lower stratospheric water vapour are significantly higher. We know water vapour is a significant warmer and we know the natural water cycle doesn't put water vapour into the stratosphere. I expect another year or so of these extremes before normal service is resumed. As I have said before expect significant snow falls this coming winter
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I liken sea ice to ice in a glass of water. If left alone the ice in your glass will melt but it won't make the water higher as it replaces the displacement like for like. So for seas to rise because of ice melt that has to come from land ice not sea ice.
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The Electric Car - saving the climate or just polluting in other ways?
jonboy replied to Sky Full's topic in Climate Change
Toyota have a great hydrogen car that's the future not EV's. But you can't make as much profit from generating the energy so it won't happen!! -
Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24
jonboy replied to Midlands Ice Age's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Good to see the optimism rather than the pessimism in the other thread -
Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts
jonboy replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I can't see how anyone can remotely predict this winter given the extraordinary weather around the globe whether its extreme heat exceptionally cold or excessive rain fall none of which were remotely predicted. My only prediction will be if it snows then that snowfall will be very heavy no light snow showers this winter. -
I've been going to Scarborough for the better part of 60 years!! It was always our first choice of 2 weeks holiday. I remember us getting to trafalgar Square in time to watch the world cup final in 66. Watching some greats at North Marine Rd and now staying in the apartments where the corner cafe was. It was always the North bay rather than the south
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September 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
jonboy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
14.9 and 49mm please -
No it's not some are a natural consequence of a warming world but the vast majority that have occurred this year their intensity and sheer volume is down to hunga tonga and the 10 to 15% increase in total budget of water vapour injected into the stratosphere. This is not spread evenly across the planet so some areas may see water vapour 20 or 30% above normal at a level not usually associated with the normal water vapour cycle. This has led to the excess totals and much of the flooding we see at present and I would argue much of the excess heat pockets we are seeing this year is also down to this. The climate change theories cannot explain theses events at the present concentration of co2
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I tend to agree with you MIA. The greatest green house 'gas' is water vapour and when hunga tonga erupted 18 months ago it added some 10 to 15% to the world budget. However this doesn't mean that is evenly spread around the world but over time it has formed into large 'pockets ' which has had 2 effects. Firstly it has led to the excessive rainfall. A prime example is what's happening in california right now, and secondly the large pockets of excessive heat that we have seen. Our weather patterns have become unpredictable not because of co2 but because of water vapour. I expect it will take a further 2 or 3 years before our atmospheric conditions return to a more normal state. In the meantime expect to see some exceptional snow fall totals this coming winter
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One statement I would disagree with is 'our ever expanding population ' it is clear if anything we will very soon reach peak population and will start to see a decline in population. Hence why you see China encouraging larger families and failing. As more countries become less poor and infant mortality falls the need for large families decrease I would expect that within 50 years max we will see population decline
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Thanks Snowbear Water Vapour is a very powerful greenhouse gas and to see such a sudden increase in the atmosphere rather then the gradual change as is the case with CO2 I would image is little understood. Our present extremes be it hot weather cold records or flooding events are probably down to this volcanic event. Once the science catches up I wonder if the blame game will be adjusted for these extreme events personally I doubt it.
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August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
jonboy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
16.8 and 81mm please -
July 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
jonboy replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
16.7 and 72mm