jonboy

But like buses once they pass you don't see anything for ages. No spots for six days now although one appeared yesterday but disappeared before they could number it. So 140 spotless days in 2009 or 77% and a lot of those that did appear have been very short lived. The sun continues to be quiet

John I have to agree with your sentiments. I have just been catching up on this and the GWO thread and the mind blowing nit picking of others views is getting in the way of what is important. We need to allow all views to be expressed in a sensible forum. GWO exact predictions may have been wrong but it doesn't mean that there are no natural cycles at play and if his research leads to a better understanding all well and good. Equally if the work on the leaky inetegrator leads to a better understanding on how the various components work together then great. The problem as I see it is that at present CO2 is portrayed as the main driver of passed warming and man is being put forward as the cause of the increase yet we may be responsible for only a small potion then what? I will continue to read but at present no matter how much I learn elsewhere I will not post Jon

The reporting still does not take account of the possible impact the sun has had on so called global warming. When comments such as 'this quiet period is unlikely to offset global warming' I get very frustrated. In my opinion this is incorrect reporting and its about time a more balance output was given by our media and especially the BBC

All we need now is for someone to look at the theory in respect of cosmic rays and cloud formation which I'm sure will be doing and we could see the whole theory of future global warming turned upside down Jon

Couldn't agree more. Our Beth who's 14 has just taken delivery of her new super dooper powered wheelchair. When we changed our motobility vehicle late last year we had to go for a converted Van as it was the only type that we could get a sensible ramp into it. it still cost us £2500 and we don't get carpets or proper seats in the back, the most basic driving and front passenger seats etc and the associated poor mileage. For families with disabled children we have enough extra costs without the added burden of extra fuel costs because we can't buy suitable fuel effiecent vehicles. This may seem callous but it is a real shame that both Brown and Cameron lost their children so young because if they had survived to adulthood goverment may at last have appreciated the difficulties faced by many families

The issue will be how we define 'sharp upward trend'. The sun will not stay quiet for long this time round and I have seen many comments on here that suggest that we will see a warming mid 2010's before a significant cooling occurs early 2020's. Hopefully by the time we get to the mid 2010's we will all understand better what drives our climate and all of the many different drives involved and therefore be able to make the right decisions for the right reasons rather than as a knee jerk reaction to a set of possible outcomes still to be proved

Didn't I read somewhere probably on the solar activity thread that the solar winds etc are at there lowest since measurements began some 50 years ago. So thats the solar change greater than at any other time in the last 50 years then!!!!!!!!

Getting back to whether Sammy Wilson is right or wrong to make his comments there is two question s here. Firstly is he right to make the comments as an individual and secondly as a minister of goverment. I am sure many on here will accept that he is entilted and therefore right in the first but question whether he is correct and therefore wrong to make such comments as a minister. However I firmly believe that he is correct on both counts. If you stop people in positions of power/influence from expressing their strongly held beliefs then you are on the slippery slope. What Sammy Wilson has done hopefully by making his comments is get a much needed debate going, however, some of the comments by friend of the earth and the greens are so vitriolic that it almost stifles debate and almost represents the general staus over Global warming ie it is manmade and thats the end of the debate. I firmly believe that we need to conserve energy and as a result lower our emmissions but for the very good reason we need to conserve our resources and we should not pollute our planet. I do not however believe that man is the cause of global warming I believe it is cyclical and part of our planets natural cycle and by forever propergating the global warming trend we really do run the risk that we will miss the signals that we are entering a significant cooling period until it is to late to prepare. We should fear a significant cooling far more than any warming. Therefore I say Sammy Wilson is 100% right

Jemtom I have to say you are being rather unfair. RJS and Blasts forecast is second to none so far and considering when the forecast was made it is remarkable in its accuracy. For January they predicted a mild spell mid month turning back to cold and then very cold. We have had our mild spell and are now turning cold with very cold being predicted by many. Simply because a specific date is not met does not make it an incorrect call. Roger's and Blasts forecast needs to be judged on the winter as a whole and not cherry picked. I'm sure that when we do look back there maybe some head scratching going on to understand how well the forecast has stood up.

Jethro As you say 'Its the cloud stuff which is really intresting' Given that we appear to have or are entering a quiet sun period whereby solar wind etc is reduced which allows more cosmic rays to reach earth which in turn generates more cloud and understanding how all this fits together is a real key for me when we talk about Golbal warming/cooling. There is a lot more to the whole process that just GHG's and until we have a better understanding of the whole for me the debate just goes round in circles

The intresting thing here is the continued lack of activity. I was reading recently that the solar wind is at its weakest since measurement started in earnest 50 years ago and are 20-25% less than during the last solar minimum 10/15 years ago. Equally not only is the wind calmer its been measured 13% cooler. How all this lack of activity impacts on our climate is the really intresting topic in my view as this could be the start of the real cooling that some members talk about.

I have never posted on this thread but always have a look. I note we haven't had any posts now for over a week does this mean the sun has gone quiet again?

My understanding of Svensmark theory is that cosmic rays plays a role in lower cloud formation which in turn leads to a cooler climate. So more cosmic rays reaching earth the greater the cloud cover. Now as we know an energetic sun keeps much off the cosmic rays from outer space at bay but we are / have entered a quiet period for the sun so can expect to see an increase in the level of cosmic rays reaching earth. Equally the news that the solar wind is at its lowest since measurements started is another sign in my mind that we are indeed entering a cooling period which we should be planning for now rather that all this wohaabout global warming

Hi Been here in Montreal for two days and the weather is mixed sunshine and showers. Temps are very pleasant at around 25. The showers can come very quick and be quiet heavy but fortunately not been caught out in one yet. The locals say that July has been cooler and wetter than normal here so iy seems a similar pattern to back home. Looking at the next week it seems that we will get much of the same Jon

Hi My family (wife & daughter) and I are going to be in Montreal for 10 days attending a conference from the 31st. We then intend to go to Old Orchard Beech about 2hrs north of Boston on the coast for a week. As my daughter uses apowered wheelchair to get around it would really help for any indication of the likely weather. My understanding is that in montreal it should be about 80ish and possibly humid and similar on the coast but less humid. Is this a reasonable assumption or is the present patterns indicating something different. Your help would be much appreciated. Jon

Intresting topic. The real issue as I see it is that the media be it print or visual can only report in sensationalist terms so any fact or sensible comment is lost within the hype. This in turn makes the populace fear what is happening and rather than doing something about it they turn and blame goverment for their woes. This can beclearly seen at present with the floods. I am sure if you overlayed maps of todays floods with those of historic times they would be very similar, the diffence is that there are more houses in those areas. Its not that these houses have been built there in the last 10 or twenty years they have been built there over the last 50/100years and this has occured because originally the river was a means of transport but has become a pleasant location a desired place to live. Are we going to change that because it may flood every 50 or 100 years of course not. If we look at cost of repairing these properties that have been flooded of say £10000 every 50 years then that is £200 a year ( less than the cost of a bottle of wine a week!!) yet the media talk about us spending billions to improve flood defences or improve drainage. There needs to be a reality ckeck on how we respond to these events and rather than continue to blame GW as a socirty we should actually start to take some responsibilty for our decisions ie thats a nice house oh yes its in the flood plain and therfore it might flood but I'm willing to take that risk and the consequenses if it occurs. I could go on about sustainability or other enviromental issues but in a nutshell we are a consumer led society and until that changes then these isuues will always be disscusses in a negative way. We need to remember the old adage of you reap what you sow.

Yet up the coast in Vermont at the ski resort of Stowe they have had over 2 feet of snow since Friday and 5feet since the beginning of March so a few hundred miles makes all the difference http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif

If this was to turn into a major eruption what sought of scale are we talking about and therefore likely impact? Jon