jonboy

well somewhere in surrey recorded minus 18.4 according to the bbc. Probably Wisley

been snowing lightly for the last hour or so here on epsom downs. Tomorrow could see a lot of sledging up here

I believe it to be Venus that you saw slip over the horizon. However for the last week if you look at the night sky before about 9pm you can almost draw a line through Venus, Juptiter and the moon. The two planets are easy to spot as they are the bright objects to the west of the moon. These two planets will play around our moon in the night sky over the next month or so and will be great viewing especially with the very cold clear nights we are having Jon

0.2 for me

Scafetta-auroras1.pdfMike report attached

I found this on the science direct web site ( http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611002872) which is a new paper by Nicola Scafetta which infers that global surface temperature can be linked to natural solar system oscillations. The abstract is below. What is interesting is the link to how the planets such as Jupiter and Saturn can influence our plant and thus our climate and as such adds weight to the methods that RJS and BFTP use in their forecasts. Abstract Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10–11, 20–21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface temperature records since 1650 and 1850, respectively, and in several planetary and solar records. We argue that the aurora records reveal a physical link between climate change and astronomical oscillations. Likely in addition to a Soli-Lunar tidal effect, there exists a planetary modulation of the heliosphere, of the cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth and/or of the electric properties of the ionosphere. The latter, in turn, has the potentiality of modulating the global cloud cover that ultimately drives the climate oscillations through albedo oscillations. In particular, a quasi-60-year large cycle is quite evident since 1650 in all climate and astronomical records herein studied, which also include a historical record of meteorite fall in China from 619 to 1943. These findings support the thesis that climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. We show that a harmonic constituent model based on the major astronomical frequencies revealed in the aurora records and deduced from the natural gravitational oscillations of the solar system is able to forecast with a reasonable accuracy the decadal and multidecadal temperature oscillations from 1950 to 2010 using the temperature data before 1950, and vice versa. The existence of a natural 60-year cyclical modulation of the global surface temperature induced by astronomical mechanisms, by alone, would imply that at least 60–70% of the warming observed since 1970 has been naturally induced. Moreover, the climate may stay approximately stable during the next decades because the 60-year cycle has entered in its cooling phase. Highlights ► The paper highlights that global climate and aurora records present a common set of frequencies. ► These frequencies can be used to reconstruct climate oscillations within the time scale of 9–100 years. ► An empirical model based on these cycles can reconstruct and forecast climate oscillations. ► Cyclical astronomical physical phenomena regulate climate change through the electrification of the upper atmosphere. ► Climate cycles have an astronomical origin and are regulated by cloud cover oscillations.

I will go for 6.75

Again I would say as the quoted site has only just started to include more detail of european quakes it can be miss leading Greece always has a back ground level of activity similar to that around the san andreas fault. I don't think we would be saying there is an increase in activity if we saw that around San Fransico etc. What is interesting is the lack of activity around san fransisco

I have just read my post and I most definitely meant NOT building upto something bigger. Teaches you to reread posts properly before posting.

Other than the aftershocks in Turkey there seems to be a distinct lack of general activity this morning I hope we are brewing up for something bigger

The site you are looking at has only just started to include information about the med. As a result it appears that a lot of activity is occuring. In the region around Greece, Turkey and Italy there is always back ground activity as shown

10.2 please

The 'Laymans Count' website has called its 2nd spotless day. F10 flux level below 90. It appears we have a burst of activity then everything goes quiet again.

We maybe heading for the max of this cycle and activity is ramping up but a doubling of activity from a very low base does not mean we have an active sun especially when compared to the last few cycles. The sun remains quiet compared to both what was expected and the recent past few years

'A few hours ago I got the first original comet images in FITS format, taken on August 1 (many thanks to Karl Battams, STEREO team member). Several frames was damaged, but the team believes that will solve this problem at the next session. I stacked all images by the comet movement, this has increase the singnal/noise ratio, see the comet with more “detailsâ€. So, the first results. The comet has grown. Now the diameter of it’s outer coma exceeded 200,000 km! Of course, at this time we have only low resolution images, but they still allow us to estimateits current size. I want to remind you that the outer coma, it’s very discharged gas envelope, not the nucleus itself, estimates of the nucleus size has not changed. On the left picture you can see the comet itself, as well as the angular size of the Sun, if it was located at the same distance as comet. Impressive?' The above is a comment from Leniod Elenin at space obs who the comet is named after from there website today.

Intresting to note that the Laymans sunspot site that called for a very cold winter across the Northern Hempishere this time last year feels that the upcoming winter is likely to be as cold if not colder but is unwilling at this stage to be precise in regard to the UK.

Vey intresting and this day in 1871 looked very cool especially for the north

I think more turning over in its sleep than waking up. F.10 Flux remain at low levels spots fading as quickly as they appear. Still no sign of any sustained activity

Agreed very quiet and another day spotless. Equally F10 flux levels remain very depressed. Nothing much appears to be on the horizon either. If this level of activity remains as we go into this next winter I wonder how bad this next one will be?

Hi John A quick question. Do you have alink to earthquake records around the world say for the last twenty years? Thanks Jon

And day seven spotless for June according to the 'Laymans' site. Flux now below 90 with little sign of any major activity in the immediate future

The sun is quiet again with 'The laymans sunspot count' callin a fifth spotless day for June. F10 Flux is also low in the lower 90's not much sign of a ramp up in activity either. Not much of a maximum!!

Those periods where at the bottom of cycle 20 not as at present when we are supposed to be at the Max of cycle 24. If this is the max of this cycle what will the bottom bring us I wonder?

I see just over an hour ago there was a 5.5 quake in ethopia a sign of more activity

Laymans sunspot count has just called 3 days spotless which is unusal for this stage of the cycle. Equally F10 flux is again below 90