jonboy

Reading your post Stephen would infer that there 18 sunspots visible. That is not the case there is one sunspot visible and that is numbered 1076. !076 has fluctuated in size over the last couple of days and may well last for a few days more. Most of the more recently numbered sunspots are better called specks and would not have been counted in previous times. I think it is still fair to say that cycle 24 continues to be way below what was predicted and even appears to below cycle 5 which was the lead into the little ice age

Does anyone know what the latest NASA projection is for cycle 24 and 25. It would be interesting to see how much they have downgrade their estinates from say two years ago?

Perhaps this is the start of a decent run of spotless days again. I wonder how many of the sunspots this year would have been counted 50 or a 100 years ago. Certainly not all of them

Hi Claudia Some do say that there is no correlation between the sun's activity and our weather. In my view that view is wrong and it is a direct result of a quiet sun that has led to the shift in weather/climate pattern that has seen a southerly shift of the jet stream which has led to the cold winter. Does this mean a hot summer unfortunately not. Although the sun appears more active, in relative terms to the last ten/twenty years, then it is still very quiet. My opinion is that the sun is akey driver in our Climate and therefore affects our weather and the pattern we are now seeing develope will not include hot summers. Good luck with the melons!!

Spring starts when the younger people start to shed their winter cloths. Best seen in Covent Garden in London as the guys have just tee onionss and the girls shed the coats for short skirts andtops. We had a rare glimpse of this last week but this week we are back to being covered

I think that winter still has a sting in the tail and that we will have a cool spring and early summer before we get things back to long term average. Therefore I will go for 9.11

What the models show is how difficult it is to call either a breakdown or reload to perhaps a less colder scenario either way it is no point in trying to compare with anything relaying to the 90's or 00's as this type of setup and the pattern that led to it is much more akin to the 60's 70's and 80's. For this reason I believe that we will have a reload but not as potent I believe that we will have several more periods of cold snowy weather this winter but not a true 47, or 63 as these are to be had within the next 5 years.It will be really intresting to compare the patern as we move through spring, summer autumn into next winter as to how 'modern' the pattern has become

Unfortunately for me GW your recent posts have become both boring and distasteful as you seem hell bent on personal attack rather than discussing in any meaningful way a very plausible alternative to AGW

I wouldn't say 'had no part to play' but again I think greater external influences where at play. I'm sure this will stir a hornets nest!!!!!!!

I think there was a paper posted not long ago which suggested thatlow sunspot activity led to high cosmic rays which help in the developement of ozone which helps with a warmer stratosphere and possibly why we are now begining to see a strong northern block develope etc etc. I would go as far as to say that I think that the hole / depletion of the ozone inthe 80's/90's was probably in a large part down to the very high level of sun spot activity

Call me old fashioned but for me winter starts when we celebrate the winter equinox on the 21st December. By bringing forward the start of winter to December the 1st we have introduced aperiod that is cooling and therefore likely to be warmer than a period ie March that is warming which can be cooler. Thus our even larger teapot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its rather telling that Obama will attend the opening but will not be present at the end

'Beyond all doubt' I don't think so GW

To me GW that shows that we are entering an increase above the 07 level and heading towards the longer term average. Clearly GW all you are intrested in is creating an element of fear which in my opinion is unjust. Lets look at ice growth in decdember as the real picture of winter is estabishlished rather than cherry picking to suit your own hardened unchanging view

And that makes it right does it?

I have t disagree with you GW. I don't believe that CO2 levels have the large impact as a GHG as people would like to think.I do not believe the theory postulated has been proven in the really world as the numerous other players have not been properly considered. In regard to your comments in regard to the sun its not that the sun's output perse that is the problem. Yes the sun's output is pretty constant but its effect can change quite dramatically. As an example of what I mean take a bonfire in the depths of winter on acold windy night if you walk round the fire at the same distance you will feel diferent levels of heat as you go and different levels of cold. Although the sun's output is generally the same the helisphere/strength of solar wind varies which allows different levels of cosmic rays to hit us and its these that research is beging to show as the cold wind. It is thought that this is by far the greater influence on our climate and not CO2

The counting of sunspots is important because the likes of Hansen use it to compare cycles and therefore to verify their views of what maybe round the corner. It does not suite nasa to have a very low sunspot count when their own prediction appears at this time to be way over the top.

I am no expert GW but pehaps this wonderful blanket of co2 is being over ridden. If as you ascertain greater levels of CO2 create greater levels of warming why is this not happening!!! Perhaps the fact that low level of solar activity leads to greater cosmic ray input leads to grater lower level cloud cover which acts as a reverse thermal blank leading to the earth cooling is the over riding influence. But somehow I think you are so entrench in your view that the 'wood obscures your view of the trees' We are in new uncharted teritory and we must view this with an open mind somehow GW I don't think you are able to do this because you need information that is not yet available and therefore are unable to adjust your basic believe system Jon

Hi Grey wolf It could be that some of us never needed to be in denial becuase we believed the so called warming had greater external influeneces than man alone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Truth will eventually win out!!!!

Hi Steve B I don't know whether you have read The Chilling Stars by Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder but they certainly believe low solar activity leads to high cosmic ray count hitting the earth which in turn leads to a cooler climate. Well worth the read.

For my sins I do believe that the vast majority of how our climate acts in trend terms is dictated by the position of the planets and how they interact with the sun. Whether this is gravitational or magnetic fields is for some by far better brain than mine. The suggestion that low sun activity (low sunspots) allows more cosmic rays to enter our atmosphere and thus help generate more cloud cover (different to that generated by natural sun activity) so less easily burnt off holds some sway with me and its this process that leads to cooling. Equally the orientation of the earth is also part of that process and will determine by how much the arth may cool (my thought is that if the equatoeial region was squarely in line to get the full impact of cosmic rays then this region may cool the most and how that effects is yet to be understood) So what causes low sun activity? My mind is being drawn more and more to planetry alignment and what gravitational or magnetic forces are at play. If those forces are in balance ie planet X imports forces y at distance x is balanced by planet Z with forces A at distance B or any combination of planets that create balance then we end up with a quiet sun. We are entering a period of planetry alighnment does this actually mean our solar system is entering a period where the sun at its center is actually in balance and thus quiet if so we could indeed be entering a deep minmum which we don't undestand. My own viewis that we are but we do not remotely understand how it all fits together and mans input is purely on a small local scale and cannot affect the underlying effect of our solar system. My apologies if this seems to ramble but I am open minded and do feel we need to look after our planet but wish people would talk about the right reasons and blame it on GW or AGW because until we understand properly the sun's effect that cannot be proved Jon

I don't think there is a conspiracy however I am sure that as technology has improved then smaller spots can be seen. If these are now counted then the criteria has changed. Will Nasa or anyone else for that matter confirm that the size of sunspot that constitues a sunspot for counting purposes has not changed. Somehow I don't think so