jonboy
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Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)
jonboy replied to pottyprof's topic in Climate Change
Hi Boar I have to agree cold is a far greater danger than warming. The solar cycles and there effect on our climate are far to easily dimissed as a primary factor and I do believe that they have been the primary cause of our so called warming rather than down to CO2 and will be the primary cause of cooling over the next 20 odd years. It is far easier to react to warming but prolonged cold or very cold weather we do not react well to. -
Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)
jonboy replied to pottyprof's topic in Climate Change
According to this research we have 20/30 years of cooling to look forward to http://joannenova.com.au/2012/01/global-cooling-coming-archibald-uses-solar-and-surface-data-to-predict-4-9c-fall/ -
There is some dispute as to whether we have passed the solar maximum for this cycle. Some believe that has occured in the last 12 months others believe it will occur early next year. Looking at how much activity has dropped off in the last 6 months I believe we are heading away from the maximum. The next cycle will be even low than this one.
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Hi CB The more I read about the sunspot cycle and the various solar outputs the more convinced I become that gobal temperatures are significantly impacted by solar activity. This is a growing area of research and much will be learnt as we enter this solar minimum. I just hope that we don't find another excuse as temperatures change and blame man for something he cannot control.
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Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)
jonboy replied to pottyprof's topic in Climate Change
For the sake of clarity GW the full aricle can be found here http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ why do we have so much angst sea ice extent has ebbed and flowed over time. Yes we are lowest on the satelite record and may well be lowest for many many years but this has come at the end of a long period of high solar activity. we are in a period of low solar activity which with lag in my opinion we will start to see benifical effects over the next 10/15 years or more. I will eat my hat if in five years time we are not in a better place. -
Intrestingly on the laymans site today after 3 spotless days we have a low sunspot count. More interestingly they had called for a dalton type minimum to this and following cycles however they are now suggesting it is likely to be a maunder type which was deeper and longer. People need to get used to the idea of a colder northern hemisphere winters
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The laymans sunspot count has for the second day called the sun spotless
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A spotless day according to the Layman's site which uses methods of counting similsr to that used during the last grand minimum. We may have already rach maximum and are on our way to a prolonged period of quiet sun activity. What will this mean perhaps a more pronounced southerly jet?
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013
jonboy replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I think it means its a signifgant step towards the holy grail!!! -
If you go to the laymans sunspot site then you will see the comparision the count would have been 16 I believe. Excellent site for a lot of stuff on how the sun may affect the earth's climate and the jet stream altogether a great site
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Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)
jonboy replied to pottyprof's topic in Climate Change
Considering how far below we where I am very impressed with the fact that we are where we are. As long as in the short term the ice can continue to rebuild I wouldn't in the short term be to concerned if we dipped below 2007 for a period. Its the state we arrive at time of melt that matters and if we can have thicker more extensive ice all the better -
5.9 for me its going to be cold
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Some great early signs which are as likely to change as not. However those who are wishing for prolonged cold, snow and ice be carefull what you wish. The last time a prolonged severe cold and snow hit the uk most people worked close to home and could walk there was a considerably less cars on the road and communities pulled together. I give the majority a week before your wishing for a warmup!!!
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Probabl not. Our wonderful planet likes to compensates with gains in one place for losses elsewhere.
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And now we have a goverment minister in charge of the environment and energy policy who hates wind farms!!
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The laymans site is worth a visit if only to understand why they use the method they do but in brief they are aiming to compare eggs with eggs rather than trying to compare old records with records obtained with the latest technology. If you visit the site they do use modern scientific papers to try and explain what is happening. Perhaps the artic ice discussion would benefit from this approach as modern satelite technology in my opinion skews our perspective of how ice extent may have been in the past.
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Day 4 spotless according to the laymans site and F10 flux continues at low levels. Can we get one more day I wonder?
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3rd day spotless on the laymans site and F10 flux continueing it's fall
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Layman's sunspot site has called for the second day a spotless sun. As others have said very unusual for so called max. Will be intresting to see what effect this might have later in the year
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I agree it is very difficult to know if you are comparing eggs with eggs or whether they are hen's eggs and duck egg's. Modern technology continously changes the way measurements are made with little or no effort to explain how they differ over time. Thus I am not overly worried about so called loss of ice and firmly believe we will see a recovery over the next 5/10 years. Just an aside if people want to see how these differing measuring techniques produce different outcomes just look at the Laymans sunspot count site.
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However if you look at the layman's sunspot count which mirrors the methods used during the last minimum then you will see there has been 3 spotlees daays in the last two months. The sun is very quiet especially as we are surposed to be in the active phase of the cycle. I to would expect even spaceweather.com to record a spotless day this year.
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Friday April 13 2012, 10:10:04 UTC 30 minutes ago Oaxaca, Mexico  5.7 9.9 USGS Feed Detail Friday April 13 2012, 10:10:02 UTC 30 minutes ago near the east coast of Honshu, Japan  6.0 13.6 These two earthquakes have occurred at the same time. What is interesting is that they are of a similar magnitude and depth but opposite sides of the pacific. Can anyone recall such an event?
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How can you justify such a statement. What new era of warming are we talking about? The Uk may at present be warmer that the average but I see no trend whatsoever and more so if you take europe and the northern hemisphere as a whole.
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I was driving on the A45 yesterday travelling to Junction 6 of the M42 and there is an electronic road sign asking drivers if they are prepared for wintry weather. Does someone known something and not telling us!!!!
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Intrestingly I have just been looking at the ski resort of Stowe in Vermont and they have a winter storm warning out that predicts 4 inches today upto a further 11inches tonight and possibly a further 4 inches tomorrow. What would we give for 19 inches of snow over two days.
