jonboy

Lower than the present cycle but no doubt NASA will say otherwise

More like cycle 5 which was the start of the Dalton Minimun

Given that their original prediction for this cycle was that it would be greater than the last cycle 23 and that they have continually over predicted the sunspot numbers so far is it any real surprise.Over on the Layman's sunpot site that try's to use the original methods of counting we are into a second spotless day. It is also a great site for other issues related to the sun like the F10 flux and EUV levels which many think play an inportant role in determining how our climate behaves

Remarkable considering some would have us believe we are not at cycle max yet. Layman's sunspot count calls today spotless.Is this the start of a prolonged hibernation by the Sun and if so i wonder what is in store for our climate!!

Is there a translation for the last two posts?

What I find interesting its fine to blame natural oscillations for any cool down but not the other way equally we now also have stated that due to these oscillations CO2 only works its magic on melting the Artic in summer. Equally they acknowledge that they don't understand the mechanisum but must be true because their model says so!!!I am happy to say that by 2100 we will have a warmer world than today because solar cycles 26 and 27 will be significant cycles leading to that warming.

Although welcomed it means diddly squat really especially as we were probably 2 million below average. What we what to see is ice loss approaching average on a longer term basis or even reducing. If we have extensive loss and large gains this doesn't improve the state of global ice. I also don't want to significant gains year on year as this would be an indicator of significant cooling which is just as bad as significant warming. I'm just an average type of guy!!!

13.9 for Jonboy

I'm not sure why you think this is worrying as I would not expect anything different. Unless there had been a record breaking cold summer you would expect one of the lowest ice extents given the parless state of the ice at the start of the melt season. As we enter solar minimum over the next 5/6 years and given present predictions for cycle 25 to be even lower than this cycle I beleieve we are at the start of recovery.Some will no doubt ask why this hasn't happened yet but in my opinion there is a lag as it takes time for the ocean currents to cool sufficeintly to allow proper ice volume to grow in a given season

cpd-9-4499-2013.pdf

We know that some of the reconstructed temperature data sets come from tree ring analysis. The attached raises questions the inherent bias in these data sets and highlights of trying to use these to predict future climate.

What it clearly shows BFTV is the mindset of those involved ie it doesn't agree with our views therefore it is rubbish.This is still the case across this area of research and as for 'Climate change on pace to occur 10 times faster than any change recorded in past 65 million years' how do we know this of course our 65 million years of records that exist!!! These records are proxies reconstructed over periods far greater than the period we have had warming to date so find it a staggering statement to be made. But then I'm not surprised you like to higlight it as it clearly fits within your own agenda.Now back to lurking

What I have noticed over the last couple of years is once patterns get set they stick around for 6 to 8 weeks. It doesn't matter if the pattern is cold or hot/settled as present it takes a major shift in the overall cycle to move things on. I believe therefore we will see this hot/settled/warm/hot pattern for another 4/6 weeks with no prolonged rain but a risk of thundery outbreaks later.

I did not expect to see a significant increase in the ice minimum but do expect that we will see an increase. There was always going to be a point at which we see a rapid decrease in area given the state of the ice going into the melt season. What is significant is the time between melt and re freeze as the shorter this period is the less heat that will be stored and therefore the quicker ice formation can occur. If this is the trend then hopefully we are at the start of a new ice build period

It is because many don't believe that the facts are simple the facts are based on complex beliefs and not fully understood causes. The use of the term 'simple' in the original statement about facts and figures in itself implies to those who question the validity of these facts and figures that they are considered stupid for not believing the arguments presented. The debates therefore degenerate more because of the langauge and style of posts. I rest my case!!

17.2 for me

14.25 please reasonably average

I will try and respond in more detail to this over the weekend but to say solar is a non starter to me is wrong. the output from the sun associaated with EUV etc are not immediate but have lag effects. As an example if high solar output in certain wave bands help heat the oceans in the tropics this heating won't affect the artic for many years as the ocean currents won't transport that heat overnight but over many years. In my opinion we arenow begining to see the change to cooler/colder times as a result of a quieter sun that being present now for 5/6 years.The next 2/3 years are going to be really intresting especially as we see a return to more ice in the NH

As you can see from the graph below for the forcasts of max late this year early next to be right then we need to see a significant uptick in activity which would be unusal given length of time from previous high point of the cycle to date

Many think that solar max has passed and what we are seeing is one of the upticks as we start the slide down to minimum

6.3 in Iran close to their nuclear facility http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22077834

Those areas suffering drought conditions in the US have seen it all before nothing new there other parts are considerably wetter than normal. Imminent melt out of the artic ice is pure speculation and not in my opinion based on solid fact. Food supplies tumbling! We are more than capable of growing enough food to feed the world what we do badly is distribute it. Please don't link things that aren't linkable unless you are reallt George Osbourne!!!!

Some of the most outlandish comments I've seen for a long time utter tripe

The pattern has changed 4.2m