jonboy

After an active period over on 'The Layman's Count' The sun is again spotless with minimal activity anticipated we could be in for a period of little or no activity. Can only add to an intresting winter!!

Regarding increased cloud cover a couple of observations from my somewhat limited reading on the subject. It seems to depend on the level of the increased cloud cover. Increased low cloud will give a positive feedback regarding AGW and increases in medium and high cloud the reverse. And then you have the cosmic ray influence on which subject there seems to be complete disagreement. That being the case, what chance have the lower orders (good old Jane) such as myself got of getting to grips with it?

The link below will take you to the Laymans Sunspot Count which tries to mimic the methods of old to give atruer comparison which definetly shows a similarity to cycle 5 which was dalton http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

For the third day the sun is blank with little sign of any activity to note. The sun continues to bump along the bottom.

In my opinion it doesn't make any real difference to russia and the rest if the ice recovers or not. Russia already have nuclear powered ice breakers which can slice through ice thought to be impenatrable only 5 years ago. They are in the process of building a floating nuclear reactor than can be put in place in the artic and can power a small city and deal with the harshest of winters. So please don't use the fact that nations are arguing about who owns minerals resources in the artic as a an example as to why the artic may not recover. Fact is technologhy has moved way beyond caring about the weather and whether there is more ice or not

That would be the Sierra Nevada Mountains in Southern Spain the most southerly ski resort in Europe Funnily snows there every year!

Couldn't agree more. If we don't fully understand how all the various teleconnections etc work (if we did longer term forcasts could be expected to be more accurate)then how can we be expected to understand what I believe to be the bigger drives of our climate the external planetary drivers which I believe to include such things orbit around the sun, solar wind intensity, gravitaional pull within the solar system, moon orbit, strength of helisphere, tilt of the earth etc. Each will impact on our atmosphere to some extent and must as a consequence affect our climate. These maybe small but generally our climate does operate within fairly small parameters. My own gut feeling at present is that this winter is going to be colder than last and certainly a colder autumn. However I feel that we may have settled into a drier pattern and unless we see a more easterly pattern set up we may not see much snow

The sun is again spotless

Yes activity will increase but compared to what? If activity is only on a par with cycle 5 then we are in for a very cold period indeed which is something I think we should all be very concerned about and would not wish on anyone. We do not understand enough of how our sun works and the effect it has on our climate and the sooner science looks at this area in real depth ( Before anyone shoots me a lot of research is happening but is it enough)then how can we prepare for something that would be beyound most peoples imagination in regard to prolonged deep cold. I do not wish a deep prolonged quiet sun but I do believe that is what we are getting.

The phrase 'maybe forming' does not mean any is present. The laymans count has called the last two days spotless. At least they try and call based on how sun spots where measured before technology identified every pimple giving a truer feel as to where this cycle is compared to historical records. Sun activity remains at a very low ebb.

Given that many forecasts at the start of the season said that we would be in for a very active hurricane seasons i get the impression that this has failed to materalise. from my own perspective it appears that storms have formed but never quiet developed as people thought they would. Do people agree and if what do people think the causes are?

The sun is again spotless today. Activity is still at a very low level and looks to continue in this vein for a little while yet

Don't you mean specks

SSS I assume next you will be telling us that changes in amount of cloud is driven by CO2 as clearly in your own mind CO2 is the be all and end all when it comes to changes in our climate. Simply because you think spencer is an idiot does not mean that what he is proposing is irrelevant. Our understanding of present changes in climate will only improve once we understand better the effect of clouds.

It is not as simple as saying clouds provide a positive or negative feedback. There are many different cloud types at different levels within our atmosphere and I am sure that some will produce positive feedback and some will provide negative feedback. My own believe is that high is positive low is negative. This has been explored both both Svensmark and Spencer. Clearly some on here do not want to cotemplate the possibility that there maybe a greater player at work than manmade GHG's and that until we actually understand the role of clouds then we will not understand what drives temprature.

Space weather .com has called today spotless. Over on the laymans count it is day 3 spotless. I do think we are now back into a queit period again SC 24 gets quiter and quieter

Landscheidt have again called today spotless whereas spaceweather.com note the 2 noted areas as very quiet. Spotless will do for me that makes 3 in august.

Yes very intresting if thier thoughts for the northern hemisphere come off. Last two winters would feel mild in comparison. I do think we are heading for a cooler autimn than we have experienced for a long time and the early signs are coming together ie PDO and La nina enhancing the cooling. May I ask what you use your faraday cage for now?!!

Clearly not enough for landsheidt as they are calling a spotless day

Hi Mondy (Newly NOAA labeled region 1100 (CL202) is the return of 1089 but not making the grade so far. This region will need to grow to make the Recurring Regions Table) So 1100 isn't developed enough to be classed a spot more a speck and wouldn'y have been counted in days gone by. We certainly have had a period of heightened activity but it has in general been pretty weak and a few spots would not have been counted previously For those of you who are intrested the site below looks at sunspots and sun activity general from an historical stand point as well as looking at what causes sunspots. At present they predict solar cycle 24 as being similar or slightly below cycle 5 Very quiet indeed http://www.landscheidt

I see over on the 'Laymans Count'(they use a method of counting similar to that used before modern technology)they are counting today as spotless and they believe we are again entering another quiet period. If true so much for an active sun

Intresting article GW. Backs up and adds a bit to what svensmark has been saying about cosmic rays and cloud formation and its effect on temperature. I am a firm believer that a lot of our warming has been down to a very active sun and what we are now seeing is as the sun quitens down and the active sun effects work out of the system then temperatures will begin to fall. It is in my own mind clear that we don't remotely understand enough about our atmosphere and how outside factors influence our climate. Intresting times ahead because I do believe that if we are entering a significant cool down then the impacts on humans will be a lot more significant than so call global warming and the cooling may well occur a lot quicker than people think

I remeber reading from an awful lot of members that the hurricane season was going to be very active if not record breaking. Was record breaking supposed to reflect lack of activity or am I miss reading level of present activity?. My own view is that this season will end up very quiet contary to early predictions.

Thanks Jackone and apologies for mucking up my response. I always find GP's posts excellent and so informative on the wider global front. Understanding how patterns in one part of the world knocks into our own weather is absolutly fascinating.The one area that I want to try and understand better is what effect increased low level cloud cover over the equatorial/tropics may have on the various global weather systems as I think this could be the key to how we may switch between hotter and cooler patterns and to some extent how long or large those patterns become.

GP does this mean that going forward over the rest of June and into july we can expectmuch of the same ie spells of pleasant sun (not hot) with cooler interludes of showery weather typical of my youth in the 60's http://raleighwx.eas...nomalyNH240.gif Excellent cross model agreement and agreement with the Global Wind Oscillation composites.