jonboy

Well as any El Nino is not now predicted until late 2014 if at all and the ENSO index has been hovering around neutral for some time and models don't show this changing anytime soon any talk of a super hot summer at this time is utter hogwash. Doesn't mean we might not get a 76 type summer but I bet if you polled those with real knowledge on here they wouldn't plump for hottest ever

Perhaps GW the boot might be on the other foot then we might also enjoy the explanations!!!

Absolutely right and its was interesting listening to Christine Lagarde leader of the IMF give the Dimbelby Lecture the other night as she clearly stated that one of the threats to world ecomnomic growth and stability is that destructive rapacious behaviour of the big corporation and super wealthly together with the growing divide between the haves and have nots Here's a link to that speach http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/020314.htm

So the extreme weather for instance we have seen hear in the UK this winter is a result of what? Is it the extra warmth of the mid tropics? I don't think so Or is it the depth of cold that has settled further south than normal? Probably There are many reasons why we have seen this exceptional cold pool settle where it has which has led to the large temperature gradient which has generated a very strong jet stream right over us with low pressure systems after system. Yet we were told the norhern hemisphere would be warmer in winter hasnt happen yet has it and any warming is within normal variation. So until science can properly explain the mechanics then I do not believe the debate is settled and I will keep my mind open and not closed to new explanations / theories

But GW the words 'a changing climate' does not mean climate change. Climate has always changed and will always do so. The west coast communities suffering from drought at present are probably larger and more expectant on 'goverment' than the last time drought hit those regions. The same applies to coastal regions dealing with floods. again probably more populated etc etc. No doubt at some stage Cameron will blame Climate Change on the floods in Somerset yet its a known flood plain and the communities are probably larger than the last time the flooding was so extensive. This so called strong statement about moving subsidies from coal and oil to renewables is fine but I did read somewhere that energy companies are begining to charge householders who put up solar panels to connect to the grid making it virtually uneconomic to use solar. Again we see 'the debate is settled' arguement being used If the debate was settled we would have predicted the slowdown pause etc but it was not and as an example the METO own predictions for the next 5 years so a significant rise again in global temps I wonder if we see a continuation of the present pause over this period what excuses will be used!!!!

Yes cycle 25 is predicted to be very quiet but we should remember that this cycle compared to the last few is also very quiet so heading into a solar minimum not seen in our lifetimes very interesting times ahead

Correct cycle max has been reached we are now on heading down expect to see less and less activity as the year progresses

On expertise just because someone shouts long and hard that they are right and the science is settled does not mean this is correct. I see so many times the comment that X is an expert and he /she says or shows that A B and C are the cause of a given outcome so it must correct. Have we forgotten what Wakefield said about vaccinations and how those who dared oppose his view were treated yet eventually he was proved incorrect but not before a hugh setback in child health had been achieved. Now I'm not saying that CO2 has no impact but what I firmly believe is that it is not the driver and that we need to better understand how our atmosphere interacts with the many other influencers So no apology for being a Skeptic from Jonboy

Given the State of the Union Address yesterday by Obama which did not mention Climate Change in any way whatsoever are we about to see a change to a more sceptic stand point by one off the key supporters of AGW. Time as ever will tell.

Can't see much changing so 4.2

I see over in the other thread the meaning of debate or counter argument takes the form of unabashed name calling and ridicule today. Usually sign that someone's lost the argument in my book when you have to sink such depth's.

I see the other sides counter is to deride the man and bring up old hidtoric conjecture that has no proof but relies on unabased character assasination to disprove someones views unbelievable

Very little chance of that happening Keith

Cleary NTT as one who sits firmly in the Man Made camp removal of posts from one thread to another is a form of censorship but perhaps I should know better and what to expect when I disagree with agiven statement and challenge it in a polite sensible manner!!!!!!

It also says this We cannot jump to any conclusions based on what we have found during this comparatively short period and we need to carry out further studies to explore the Sun's activity, and the patterns that we have uncovered, on longer timescales.

Now this makes sense since my last two posts have been removed Censorship

Hi Yarmy This link will provide interesting reading as well http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/128

So answer me this what are the drivers to ENSO it isn't CO2 it is most likely the change in cloud cover in the tropics or lack of it and the amount of percipitation which can occur on a cyclical scale rather than random. The key is understanding the given strength of any given cycle and its length. Now I believe than external forces influence cloud cover in the tropics and that we have now entered this cooling phase. Its now about dismissing cool driver dominance or warm drivers its about accepting they are one and the same and at different times cause different effects. Less cloud warmer climate more cloud cooler climate. You can't do that with CO2 can you!!!!!

Agreed I think the research that is now being carried on the ouputs of the sun are going to be telling in understanding how our climatic cycles work and what truly caused our warming. As for thinking that just because the sun is going quiet all our winters will be cold is plainly wrong. We are in a transition period and colder winters will become more and more the norm for our little island but sometimes we will be caught in no man's land as we have been so far this winter

But that's the problem catastrophe isn't upon us. If CO2 was the driver we are led to believe why are we in this pause when levels continue to rise. It is no good saying the heat has gone into the oceans etc because it just doesn't equate. If CO2 is the driver no matter what feedbacks you and others claim are at work and responsible for the 'pause' then those feedbacks would always be the primary cause not CO2. Unless the climate has reach a tipping point that means other natural elements take over then I just don't get CO2 as the culprit. Something more fundamental drives our climate and its from the top down not from the bottom up.

But GW if it was just looking at the science from a pure perspective that would be fine but more often than not the language used against those who take an opposite view is at best impolite and at worst downright offensive. This is not war we are not in some battle to save earth although clearly some think we are. As far as I'm concerned the science isn't settled and to say when new research is being done that that area was settled and debunked years ago does not show an open mind. Far to many on the Climate Change thread's show closed minds

Exactly the predictions where totally wrong. I have put a couple of recent papers on what modulates the suns activity over in the research thread. This and the next cycle are now predicted to be low before a rebound in cycle 26 and 27. This means that if we believe in solar influence being the main climate driver then cooling will occur until at least 2040/50 before climbing again. But don't expect a mini ice age unless we start to see some extensive volcanic activity which could push temps sufficiently downwards. Again there are papers out there that link low solar cycles with increased volcanic activity so its anyone guess but for some it will be our fault whatever the outcome

Hi Knocker that is a must read for all those who wish to debate this topic and highlights what is bad about much of the rhetoric that happens in the climate change threads. Excellent find

So poetic license or a dismishing of solar influence? Mind you given the downturn in solar wind strength perhaps a feather would have a greater effect!!

Without seeing the program if it just covers the drop of of cycle 24 and the next cycle and likely impact without tying inprevious strength of past cycles and the impacts on warming then its a misleading piece of journalism in my opinion