jonboy

JB's not the only one Geoff Sharp at Laymans's sunspot count is also calling for another frigid winter in the states but also believes this time it will also apply to western europe.

research is begining to show that high solar cycles leads to less cloud cover which in turn leads to warmer oceans thus warmer world and the opposite for low solar periods clearly these changes don't happen overnight as we move from one cycle to another. I will post links in due course but do firmly believe that its the depth of cycle that matters and it isn't sunspot number but other associated outputs such as magnetic field strength E10 and F10 outputs that are the key players. The next few years will change the debate dynamics as more is understood as we enter this deep minimum which will happen very quickly rather than a slow decline

I know its Watts up with but still worth a read regarding solar cycles especially given how some on that site keep saying its not the sun!! http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/06/recent-paper-finds-recent-solar-grand-maximum-was-a-rare-or-even-unique-event-in-3000-years/ Unfortunately, it was beyond the scope of this paper to address the potential impact of solar activity on climate. Yet the reconstruction leaves a very big question unanswered — What effect did the Grand maximum of solar activity that occurred between 1950 and 2009 have on Earth’s climate? As a “unique†and “rare†event in terms of both magnitude and duration, one would think a lot more time and effort would be spent by the IPCC and others in answering that question. Instead, IPCC scientists have conducted relatively few studies of the Sun’s influence on modern warming, assuming that the temperature influence of this rare and unique Grand maximum of solar activity, which has occurred only once in the past 3,000 years, is far inferior to the radiative power provided by the rising CO2 concentration of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Sometimes GW you amaze me with yor deliberate misleading posts. Simply because you don't see an immediate snap of the fingers change from melt to growth doesn't mean that the underlying forcing isn't the dominant one. We are entering a period of low to very low solar activity that is likely to last at current understanding for at least 30 years it is also likely that it will be unprecedented in living memory and probably 200years. If you boil a kettle and slowly reduce the heat the water doesn;t instantaenously stop boiling even if you remove all heat it boils for a while before slowly dropping eventually to return to its enviromental temperature. Why is planet earth any different? It will take time for this change in natural forcings to show in increased glacier growth great artic ice cooler global temperatures etc but we are begining to see that change.

This thread seems to have little to do with Antarctic Ice of late perhaps we could only post items related to the topic rather than the 'look at me' type of posts that have have filled this page!!!

it really does beg the question as to what leads ocean or atmosphere. Many here thought the atmosphere would follow and reinforce the ocean leading to a very strong el nino but perhaps the decline in solar activity has meant the atmosphere has acted in thelead and as a result we see a decline to either a weak el nino which will b every short lived. So much for the doom and gloom trumpted by some not many weeks ago!!!

Well even spaceweather today cannot count a sunspot so for them a spotless day the first in their counting for a couple of years

Well today the count on spaceweather is 11 and as they themselves say very difficult to see and i would expect at least a couple of spotless days from spaceweather. The laymans sunspot site has already called 2 spotless days. This could be the start of a very long minimum. the next few months could be very interesting indeed.

I always understood science to be based on experementation and use of actual known verifiable data and facts. What this is is the use of models which have shown and continue to show very poor accuracy in there projections yet we continue touse there outputs as gospel god given fact. to rely on these as a tool of policy makers is just plain wrong in my opinion and is what makes me extermely sceptical of manmade climate change.

Well you are likely to have a very long wait as I don't see these natural drives turning positive enough to drive what you see until around 2060 when we will be into cycle 26/27

Late 17.7 for me

I think over the last few months its been the lack oflow overnight temperatures that has driven the CET rather than any particularly warm daytime temps which suggests to me that we have had more cloud cover overnight than we would normally have had. Galactic cosmic rays anyone!!!!

Why would it be good when it would likely to cause severe disruption as we enter the key summer holiday period?

Well GW can blow hot and cold when he wants!!!!!!

This cycle has not shown the extreme peaks and trough's of cycle 14 you are better to compare cycle 5 link below http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24_1.png

Hi Blast lets hope it stays dry for the derby meet as it will be my 25th straight derby. If it doesn't dry out to much i forecast amazing maria for friday oaks and kingston hill for saturday

Didn't take long for the other side to dish Daniel Botkin via that wonderful site 'hotwhopper' why am i not surprised. If you can't refute the points made dish the guy instead seems to be the standard approach of the other side these days.

I found this an interesting read http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/31/in-house-testimony-botkin-dismantles-the-ipcc-2014-report/

14.3 please

why do we quote the 61-90 average when it would be more reasonable to quote the say 81-2010 average or does that 0.6 c make it look better from a warming perspective!!!!!!

So you agree then that Russia could well believe we are going to suffer significant cooling rather than warming and are taking steps to obtain land that they might use for displaced agriculture or population!!!!!

here is a link to a new paper on planetery influence on solar cycles http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/325 Given that WUWT won't review it must be good and the abstract might even be read by those over the road

I do love Judith Curry perhaps one so will the other side http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/22/climatologist-judith-curry-levels-both-barrels-against-alarmist-climate-science/

Is this why Russia is so keen on Ukraine http://iceagenow.info/2014/04/face-cooling-200-250-years-russian-scientists/

No doubt will be considered unscientific irrelevant etc etc but do I care. Link to an interesting article http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/24/svensmarks-cosmic-theory-and-cloud-cover-depictions-in-little-ice-age-art/#more-108081