jonboy

Very interesting to see the large increase in volume for the second year running. As we start to enter the down side of this solar cycle lets hope this is the start of a trend of year on year growth.

A lot of small quakes today between 1 and 2 Km down wonder whether this ice related?

There are three short animated lectures of which the first two are now available and the last will be later this week discussing the work being undertaken at CERN and in particular relating to the CLOUD experiments (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) ie the effect of cosmic rays on cloud formation and its subsequent effect on global temperatures. http://home.web.cern.ch/about/updates/2014/10/teded-and-cern-team-animate-cosmic-rays

Are we about to see another large quake? http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/caldera/ Large uptick on the displacement graph this morning

I'm sure Geoff can speak for himself but perhaps he's not trying to convince you of anything but pointing out that there is an alternative opinion / theory If you weren't trying to undermine why put parts of your post in bold just doesn't stack up me

Just because you believe he is world expert doesn't mean he's right there are many examples in science of experts being proven wrong by those perceived to be less knowledgable Perhaps Dev rather than trying to undermine GW you could explain why you think he's wrong

I have to say that as interesting as the paper maybe it is way above my knowledge base so won't go anywhere near commenting on it but I find the discussion going on elsewhere interesting but please don't ask me who is right or wrong

Seeing that they were garnered from your link then I'm surprised you don't know what they mean!!!

Wow -341.3 below average bet no one quessed that!!

Norway Aalfotbreen +1360 Austdalsbreeen +790 Austre Broeggerbreen -180 Blomstolskar +1590 Breidalblikkbrea +1146 Engabreen +1140 Graafjellsbreen +1230 Graasubreen -260 Hansbreen -1240 Hansebreen +850 Remebesdalsskaaka (Hardangerjoekulen) +910 Hellstugubreen -10 Irenebreen -851 Kongsvegen +210 Langfjordjoekul -760 Midtre (Austre) Lovenbreen -260 Nigardsbreen +1222 Rundvassbreen +638 Storbreen +100 Svelgjabreen +1313 Waldemarbreen -916 Werenskioldbreen -1280 Sweden Marmaglaciaeren -90 Rabots Glaciaer +20 Riukojietna -90 Storglaciaeren +680 Tarfalaglaciaeren +830 Just a few of the increases but then again its just BILE!!!

Thats why I rarely read some of these threads as its the same old we are all doomed next we will have athread about walruses meeting being a sign of global warming and we must do better!!!!

I saw that JP posted a while back that it had reached 60000tons per day and averaged 20000perday since the start whereas europe general produces about 14000 tons a day so on average a 30% increase and perhaps a short term increase of 300%

The amount of SO2 is considerably higher than most think. SO2 is one of the key building blocks for ozone so it is likely that we will see a greater amount of ozone in the NH. More ozone should lead to an increase in SSW events which obviously helps with colder winters. With other patterns perhaps indicating a colder pattern this year anyway any increase in warming events can only bode well for a truely memerable winter in my opinion.

we seem to have another drop going on the GPs at present perhaps as a result of last quake or precursor for another mag 4

Wednesday 01.10.2014 12:26:17 64.617 -17.479 8.0 km 4.2 99.0 3.5 km SE of Bárðarbunga

I wonder if over the last 36hrs we are seeing a reduction in the overall number of quakes but an increase in those over 4 if so i wonder what this means?

We should have another week or so before any real falls

I agree John that people like cpc who better understand haven't gone for super Nino but there certainly have been some who very much advanced the idea of a super Nino being a nailed certainty

Thanks for the replies. The interesting point is that so far the atmosphere has not been playing ball and I get the impression that at present we don't understand why this is the case. This is why we have gone from predictions of super Nino to weak to possibly neutral My gut tells me solar influences at play that we don't understand

So given its weakness what do people think regarding an el nino or is this fizzling out into a basic non starter?

11.2 for me please

The problem I have is at no point does this include or account for the large natural variation in ozone production as a result of the solar cycles from the late 70's we saw two very active cycles which would have seen significantly less ozone produced and funnily enough since we have entered low cycle we a seeing a recovery but hey must be due mans own efforts!!!

Beyond the 'normal' climatic cycles at this time of year as we head towards winter it will be interesting to see what effect all the additional SO2 being pumped out by the volcanic activity in iceland will have on level of ozone in the NH and consequent temperature and conditions for snow production. When these impacts take effect will be the key but as others have said greater ozone should lead to easier and potential stronger warming events over the coming months. Massive learning ahead.

An awful lot of what is posted in here is model based conjecture, passed as hard evidence, when in fact it is only a theory extented into a computer model. So sauce for the goose etc etc