jonboy
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Posts posted by jonboy
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Water vapor in the stratosphere would have very little impact on conditions in the troposphere (Any SSW aside).
They actually predicted it would further increase global average temperatures by additional 7% to the warming caused by anthropogenic climate change, so climate change is the overwhelming factor."In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects"
Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (nasa.gov)
A few quotes from a paper Jane J. Lee and Andrew Wang of the Jet Propulsion Lab at NASA
'The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth’s surface.'
'In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer.'
' After the Tonga volcano erupted, the MLS team started seeing water vapor readings that were off the charts. “We had to carefully inspect all the measurements in the plume to make sure they were trustworthy,” said Millán.'
'This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects'
Fermin Koop writing in Geophysical Research letters estimated the water vapor ejected by Hunga Tonga could take between 5 and 10 years to leave the stratosphere.
You write off the effects of the eruption as if it has no consequence.
All to often the go to excuse for weather events is CO2 induced climate change when clearly other factors are at play and explain better the extreme events we are seeing at present.
10 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:No they aren't - No records were broken. The snow in Sweden was widely reported to be the most on record for September - This was incorrect. It was the most since 1905. They've recorded more in the distant past.
An isolated unusual cold event vs. several new record hot Septembers across Europe and NA, both had severe heatwaves for September and have all year. But no, climate change is a hoax because of one cherry picked event against the trend, right?
I implore you to look at the global temperature anomalies over the last 20-30 years. The trend is as clear as it can get. One pocket of cold does not match the overall massive picture of record breaking warmth.
I am not talking about cold pockets I'm talking about the heat pockets and excess rain pockets that are travelling around our globe
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6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Warming averages leads to greater extremes. CO2 has increased, not stayed constant, and there is a time lag between (past) rising CO2 and (current) rising temperatures anyway. You clearly do not understand the science.
And you clearly don't understand water vapor. Perhaps you would like to chat with NASA scientists who predicted this.
5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:What science is that, jonboy?
Water Vapor is by far the most potent warming element in our atmosphere. What has changed significantly in the last 18 months water vapor in the stratosphere.
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33 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
The former are record breaking and align with the warming global climate. Snow in Scandinavia and Iceland won't see any records challenged and is against the otherwise warming global trend. Some live in complete denial.
They do not align with the warming global climate they are far too extreme to fit that paradigm. The science also doesn't stack up something else is at play to cause these pockets of excess heat and rainfall. CO2 being pretty constant over the last few years cannot be the cause. So not in complete denial just following the science!!
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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Ah stop with the dramatics, parts of Scandenavia be getting snow end of the week and Iceland, oh no might be another ice-age coming
Agree sleepy.
What people aren't doing is looking at the cause of these extremes they just go co2 driven climate change when it's clearly not. This is water vapour in the stratosphere driven as a result of hunga tonga.
Back to normal in a couple of years.
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Indian summer 13.0 and 105mm of rain please
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On 28/09/2023 at 20:07, matty40s said:
It really doesnt take much common sense to see that the world is kind of messed up seriously at present. But hey ho Rishi, let's have more oil on the fire eh.
There needs to a scientific explanation for these pockets of extreme heat and extreme rainfall. CO2 levels doesn't do it for me because these are pretty constant over the last few years with minor percentage movement. Whereas the levels of lower stratospheric water vapour are significantly higher. We know water vapour is a significant warmer and we know the natural water cycle doesn't put water vapour into the stratosphere.
I expect another year or so of these extremes before normal service is resumed.
As I have said before expect significant snow falls this coming winter
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4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Can you give us more insight please on melting Glaciers on land doing the damage? Whatever leaks over land , surely finds itself to the sea? But displacement is another matter...
I liken sea ice to ice in a glass of water. If left alone the ice in your glass will melt but it won't make the water higher as it replaces the displacement like for like.
So for seas to rise because of ice melt that has to come from land ice not sea ice.
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33 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
nope..its easier to convert water into hydrogen than oil into petrol for example
Toyota have a great hydrogen car that's the future not EV's. But you can't make as much profit from generating the energy so it won't happen!!
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Good to see the optimism rather than the pessimism in the other thread
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Just now on the outskirts of York
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1 hour ago, matty40s said:
Every day now sees catastrophic rainfall levels somewhere, on a massive basis...higher temperatures means more water can be held in the atmosphere, with the result...
No the main reason is the added 15 to 20% of water vapour by hunga tonga. That water vapour is concentrated in pockets of towards 50% extra not in the troposphere but often in the stratosphere
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I can't see how anyone can remotely predict this winter given the extraordinary weather around the globe whether its extreme heat exceptionally cold or excessive rain fall none of which were remotely predicted.
My only prediction will be if it snows then that snowfall will be very heavy no light snow showers this winter.
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It was storm Daniel and affected not only Greece but Turkey and Bulgaria.
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6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Reef...
What you looked at was for the year!!!
Sept 4th is recorded as 1.19inches (about 30mms), high, but not unusual in a thundery spell.
MIA
No MIA parts of Greece have received over 500mm of rain in the last 24 hrs
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I've been going to Scarborough for the better part of 60 years!!
It was always our first choice of 2 weeks holiday. I remember us getting to trafalgar Square in time to watch the world cup final in 66. Watching some greats at North Marine Rd and now staying in the apartments where the corner cafe was. It was always the North bay rather than the south
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1 hour ago, Wold Topper said:
Oh i see
, Crap photo tbh fair, if you zoom in you can see there are no parking spaces, absolutely rammed lol, didn't know about the dolphin's tbf, one drive around was enough 
It's been rammed all week with camper vans but little or no surfing activity as its been so calm.
Let's hope for more surf come the end of September when the UK surfing competition comes to Scarborough
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21 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:
They must have good eye sight
, there were peeps everywhere, both bays were packed tbh!
Sorry your photo showed an empty beach hence my tongue in cheek comment.
We were there the last week and I understand a pod of 50 dolphins were off north bay earlier today.
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1 hour ago, Wold Topper said:
A packed Scarborough sea front (North Bay) this afternoon, the sun brings em out!
They're all at the cricket WT!!
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Real Madrid have refurbished their stadium which includes a retractable roof . First home game last night was played with it closed because of the intensity of the rain
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New moon in Scarborough tonight
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14.9 and 49mm please
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38 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
And that's another result of man-made climate change.
No it's not some are a natural consequence of a warming world but the vast majority that have occurred this year their intensity and sheer volume is down to hunga tonga and the 10 to 15% increase in total budget of water vapour injected into the stratosphere. This is not spread evenly across the planet so some areas may see water vapour 20 or 30% above normal at a level not usually associated with the normal water vapour cycle. This has led to the excess totals and much of the flooding we see at present and I would argue much of the excess heat pockets we are seeing this year is also down to this.
The climate change theories cannot explain theses events at the present concentration of co2
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you missed a very important one excessive rainfall causing minor to major flooding events worldwide
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5 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
No classic line from me Reef...
I mainly just quoted the opposing views of the 2 people who replied, whilst adding in a question.
I simply put forward my own views, that does not mean that I do not think that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, (as you seem to infer) . It is, but one should acknowledge that H2O is much more powerful, and we need to be careful not to assume that reducing CO2 will solve all our problems. That assumes that CO2 is causing all the current warming. I think we need to be ready in case the CO2 decreases do not give us what it is believed will give us what we need in terms of climate changes and weather control..
I guess its the old 'how much of the temperature rise' is caused by CO2.
MIA
I tend to agree with you MIA. The greatest green house 'gas' is water vapour and when hunga tonga erupted 18 months ago it added some 10 to 15% to the world budget. However this doesn't mean that is evenly spread around the world but over time it has formed into large 'pockets ' which has had 2 effects. Firstly it has led to the excessive rainfall. A prime example is what's happening in california right now, and secondly the large pockets of excessive heat that we have seen.
Our weather patterns have become unpredictable not because of co2 but because of water vapour.
I expect it will take a further 2 or 3 years before our atmospheric conditions return to a more normal state. In the meantime expect to see some exceptional snow fall totals this coming winter
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Autumn 2023
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Really I know this is aimed at me. At what point in my posts have I denied warming is taking place.
You and others should take the time to properly read my posts.
They relate only to the extreme heat events in the last 12 months or less and the excessive rainfall and snowfall also occurring at the same time. I have offered an alternative explanation that has some science behind it yet you and others have gone out of you way to call me a denier flat earther and worse.
At least I have an open mind that is will to look at alternatives so who are the real deniers I wonder.