jonboy
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Posts posted by jonboy
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Derecho I assume from your comments that you are in the camp of that suggests water vapor has no role whatsoever in warming. In my view such a position is foolhardy. The quoted +0.15Wm-2 is radiative forcing. If you accept that CO2 has a radiative forcing effect then you should accept that water vapor also has a contribution.
In regard to your last statement I would counter why doesn't CO2 increase have an immediate effect? Its called lag.
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Derecho The paper I posted suggests otherwise
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I am going to be controversial. Research shows that the likely impact of hunga tonga due to the stratospheric increase in H2O to be about +0.15Wm-2 radiative forcing this is compared to a forcing of +0.25Wm-2 for the increase in CO2 between the period of 1995 to 2006. Given that the initial plume was located more across the equatorial belt it is no surprise to me that we have seen the oceans warm. we will not see a decline in temperatures until we see this additional water vapor return to earth. Estimates put this at anything from 5 to 10 years. The world is in for a soggy warm few years yet.
The Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai Hydration of the Stratosphere - Millán - 2022 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library
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12.6 and 59mm of not needed rain
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WYorksWeather wow why am I not surprised by your statement.
So it appears that changing attitudes to climate change means a hardening of attitudes that holds no truck with anyone who may disagree in the slightest with your definition.
Perhaps this thread should close because no matter what your opinion might be if it differs your a denier.
To be clear therefore I'm a denier. Unbelievable
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I have a simple question.
Why given the last 18 months of above average temperature is no one talking about the effect of Hunga Tonga and laying the blame on CO2 climate change when the research suggested temperature would rise as a result of the event?
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WYorksWeather that's what hs2 was designed to do not only passenger capacity but also freight capacity
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You see more electric vans in urban areas because this is where the majority of van journeys are made. Most trade people and delivery's occur within a 20 to 30 mile radius of there main location.
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9.0 and 110mm
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TonyH Why 90%? I can tell you now if you had a 90% reduction man would not exist. Utter baloney.
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raz.org.rain We are seeing population decline which has absolutely nothing to do with climate change. World population levels are predicted to peak in the next 50 years tops then decline part of the natural cycle especially as women become more independent and not at the behest of men.
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Population will collapse because we all become better off. If it wasn't for immigration the UK population would already be in decline.
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One issue I have in regard to the whole climate change discussions is that each element of emission is taken in isolation without a fully rounded discussion on consequence.
An example is electric cars. As a singular subject electric cars are less polluting in carbon terms that petrol or diesel in regard to emissions. However this carbon cycle needs to factor in also the degradation to our roads due to increased weight hence the need for greater/more often renewal. The additional pollution of greater tire degradation and thus greater tire wear. The need to change battery assemblies at least once in the life time of the vehicle. If you added the whole carbon cycle I am certain electric vehicles wouldn't look so attractive.
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If you watch my video closely you will see the sea water actually coming through the wall below the coping and lower down in several places. Shows the power the sea has.
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High tide in North Bay Scarborough tonight
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6.4 and 70mm although I would prefer a warmer and drier month I can't see it happening
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17 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
So why are we seeing increased and earlier ice formation particularly for this winter?
for what its worth we know that snow fall can help in the formation of sea ice. We have seen this winter an increase in the intensity of both rainfall and snowfall which I would suggest is a result of the extra water vapour in the stratosphere, as a result of Hunga Tonga, making its way back to earth. This increase in intensity of any early snowfall would in my opinion have helped in the early ice formation this year. We may well see this next year also but thereafter unlikely.
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toggerob not from the sunspot that is bristling with energy for x class flares but departing sunspot 3575 close call today!!
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Polar Maritime And just about as earth facing as possible. it will be interesting to see what impacts it has.
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I do find it interesting how much hype some people put on this cold spell give any snow fall is transient and for the most part Restricted to higher elevation.
I want snow to lower elevation for a week then it might be worth talking about
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I see GB news are quoting Netweater charts for the 800mile wide snow event that is coming!!!
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4.0 and 83mm please
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It would appear that the usual members are beginning to write off early Feb despite it being over 2 weeks away. When did 17 day charts verify?
Enjoy the next 7 days then reassess the beginning of next month not before.
I fully expect surprise snow fall in this coming week
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A lot of gnashing of teeth tonight for what has been well advertised by the likes of Tamara and Met4.
Have faith we have a cold dry spell incoming which will be very welcomed by those areas recently flooded. A brief less cold spell we should see the cold reestablish itself.
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Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects
in Climate Change
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WYorksWeather There are 2 factors at play. Firstly the 2 forcings are totally different The SO2 impact which has a cooling effect dissipated below background levels within 12/18 months and the amount injected into the atmosphere was nothing exceptional. Whereas the water vapor was exceptional and is expected to last between 5 and 10 years. It is also clear that the water vapor took some 18 months to impact southern and northern hemispheres and given the lessening impact of the SO2 during that period that is likely to explain the lag.
The cooling effect of SO2 has gone we are left with the warming effect of the excess water vapor which gives the net radiative forcing of +0.15Wm-2 this cannot be ignored when discussing the present warming.
On a side note I see that that volcanic activity around Hunga Tonga is on the increase again perhaps we have not seen the last of this volcano!!