jonboy
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Posts posted by jonboy
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We need dry ideally with cold and sunshine at least for a good few days
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31 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:
The Chiefs game against the Dolphins forecast to be the 5th coldest in NFL history this weekend.Forecast high at 5pm Kick off is -2F and drops to -5F at 7pm.Hope Taylor Swift wraps up warm for that game
!That is brutal.The coldest game in history incidentally was then the Dallas cowboys played Green Bay Packers in 1967- It was -13f for that one!!Insane
Could you see our pampered footballers even getting to the dressing room door!!
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6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
It’s a bit off topic but I’ve read some papers and the amounts of atmospheric rivers 2023 going into the start of this year has been unprecedented so I can sort of see what you are saying without having seen any solid solid evidence. It needs studying more I think
I agree a lot of research ongoing and ultimately it will in my mind show its impact on the NH winter whether its extra snowfall or increased artic ice. Its the added unknown in science terms that will change a good winter period into an exceptional one.
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Just now, Scott Ingham said:
Well the chances are it will not be that extreme!! Obviously I’m not forecasting that hahaha but it has the same ingredients! What it will be if it plays out is widespread 20cm+ in my opinion
All the extra water vapour due to hunga tonga will show its hand in shear intensity of any snow fall as I said back in November. Get your very large shovels ready!!
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5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Thanks Aleman..
I hadn't forgotten your views, and I do agree with them, but I believe in the Jan Mayen Islands they are talking about the main pack, showing its hand.
I am suggesting that that there is a chance it may visit Iceland this year (though still unlikely)
MIA
Given the depth of cold modelled in the area for the next few weeks it will be interesting to see how much sea ice we get in that area and the baltic sea. Given that we have talk of the hottest year on record due to man induced climate change (personally I think the effect of hunga tonga is ignored for political reasons) then the amount of sea ice is extraordinary.
Keep up the great work MIA this is such a thought provoking thread.
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I rarely comment in this thread as I'm not a great reader of the models.
However there are some fantastic charts being shown which hopefully will bring winter joy to many. But lets put into perspective each model.
Firstly the GFS (Global Forecasting System) this is an American based forecasting tool it will be great at getting it right around America it will be less right further afield ie europe especially the further out the model prediction goes.
Gem is a Canadian model so much the same applies
ECM a European model great for us but less likely to get what happens around the US right again the further out the modelling goes. ICON is german I believe so similar to ECM and of course UKMET model will be great for us but again maybe poor at modelling whats happens in the states.
My point is don't take any model as gospel especially beyond 5 days try and assess each model taking account of their individual bias nearer to their own locations. We are going to get a proper winter spell and winter is just beginning.
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2 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:
It's not:)
Agree this is hunga tonga at play with all that extra water vapour.
If people think we have had it bad I would suggest they look at what has been happening in queensland and specifically the gold Coast over the last months
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A late 3.9 and 99mm please
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37 minutes ago, Shaunado said:
The Rangers Ross County game has been postponed because Ross County cant get to the game because of the conditions on the A9
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On 03/12/2023 at 08:20, carinthian said:
Thought some of you might like these pictures of Advent Weekend on The Katschberg. Very cold and snowy yesterday.
C
Not you Carinthian who won the 201m last night!!
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20 minutes ago, SnowBear said:
Research does say that the increase of water vapour in the stratosphere, and also into the higher mesosphere, by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano would probably cause a temporary increase in warming, bringing us close to the 1.5°c threshold. It would probably also increase rain fall and rain fall rates.
Both of these we have seen this year in variius places with increased heat, and some extremely high rain fall across the globe.
Unlike a land based volcano, or even Krakatoa, which blasted mostly ash, rock particles and other aerosols high into the atmosphere, Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai was mostly water vapour, one of the most efficient greenhouse gases, but short lived. But due to that extreme height reached it will not "rain out" in a matter of days or weeks as normally seen in lower altitude weather, the best estimate I've seen is 2-3 years.
So, this year, with that high altitude injection of water vapour and also the turbulence caused in the upper atmosphere by Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai, combined with the El Nino, and also the introduction of the clean emissions laws for shipping, we have seen a big spike in heat.. And rain events.
As that water vapour decreases I suspect we will see a return to more "normal" levels, eg: the levels we saw before Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai.
So yes, its had a warming effect, but it should be only temporary, providing any tipping points are not triggered.
We shall see.
I agree with everything you have said snowbear. That's why we need to be cautious about this years heat extremes and saying it is down to co2 climate change.
Hopefully with all the research being undertaken we may get a better understanding of the role of water vapour in the climate change debate.
One other key impact of hunga tonga is the impact on ozone and its consequences on temperature.
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1 hour ago, cumbrian ice said:
We are in an unusual state with all the extra water vapour from the Hunga Tonga eruption. We need to see where we are in 3-4 years time when the water vapour has worked its way out. We don't know, but my hunch is we will have cooled.
I await with baited breath to see who utterly disagrees with you I for one agree we don't fully know the impact of hunga tonga and research clearly states it is likely to have had a warming effect on the climate system.
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This thread has taken a nasty turn when people talk about exterminating or taking out those who they call deniers or are counter to their particular take on things. Its not acceptable in my view.
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36 minutes ago, matty40s said:
Oh not that assertion again. Part of the rainfall and snowfall extremes maybe, but the rises in temperature have also led to more vapour in the lower atmosphere as well.
So as far as you're concerned water vapour has no role and is not a green house gas!
26 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:Plus what caused the same phenomena last year, before the eruption
The eruption was January 22 so would have impacted last year as well.
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20 minutes ago, Notty said:
Looking at some of these posts not only is this year the warmest on record but many new extremes have been recorded.
And the driver for these extremes this last year is clearly water vapour from hunga tonga
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17 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
I remember it well, jonboy!
I was 7 in 62 but better memories of 67 and 69 as I had more freedom to do what we liked and could disappear for almost all day without having to report in!!
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And 63 was boxing day 62
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3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
I've skied Mt Mansfield at Stowe fabulous resort. A bit of trivia is that the real Von Trapp family lived in Stowe after the war and just outside Stowe is the original Ben & Jerry ice cream factory.
Keep up the great work KW
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Light dusting in York
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I wish people would remember its still November and for many of us old timers winter is still 3 weeks away. The cold is getting entrenched to our north and east and once the mjo and other synoptics allow we could be in for a memorable cold period. Patience is a virtue why have a smearing of jam when you can have a big dollop of jam and cream later.
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Suddenly for a number of posters past 120hrs is the gospel according to Saint Mild!!!
Tomorrow will no doubt be different again.
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Going early for me and 3.2c and 71mm please
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The models are going to vary be up and down. For me its not yet winter I'm old fashion and don't see winter starting until the 21st the winter solstice.
What we see modelled is a bonus whether it is short lived or say a 10 days but it is potentially a) cooling things down and b) setting us up for a remember able winter. Don't over analyse enjoy the journey.
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48 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Following on from the above posts about ANTARCTIC ice and there not be a similar thread I will supply the correct info...
Thanks to the ASIF
Extent
and Area -
2 to 3 months ago we were running at lows but there has been a recovery (against anomalies) recently .
So 'doomster' reporters are somewhat out of date.
I strongly 'suspect' that this drop in the Antarctic ice is caused by the H20 put out by Hunga Tonga. (time will tell). It is being researched right now.
Perhaps what is of more significance is the overall sea ice totals -
which have been performing strongly recently due to the Arctic sea ice performance (see late today for details.).
MIA
Thanks MIA confirmed my thoughts especially with reference to Hunga Tonga. The research ongoing I believe will change a few preconceived notions re ice etc.
Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I agree a lot of research ongoing and ultimately it will in my mind show its impact on the NH winter whether its extra snowfall or increased artic ice. Its the added unknown in science terms that will change a good winter period into an exceptional one.