jmp223

Wow...(massive hp system). Although marked drop in temps showing with forecast for Xmas day, while I still consider that FI territory it will be interesting to see the evolution the models take to get there. Perhaps an amplified MJO and an acceleration as it goes through it's next phase? Just thinking out loud...

A trough with an embedded cold front?

Saharan dust on Christmas day...what are the chances

One thing I noticed In the run up to our recent cold spell, the 06z always seemed to throw out stinkers of charts, which then be modified (positively for coldies) in the 12z. It seems to be doing it again!

Would prefer that Azores ridge to be less amplified but on the whole I'd take it. Given the fact GEFS tends to overestimate vortex strength and that 6% of it's ensemble members are still predicting a change to an easterly around New Year's week, I'd certainly say we still have a chance of an SSW event.

The amplitude of the MJO on the most recent plot is noticeably downgraded, could anyone explain what that would entail for NW Europe? A lesser chance of high latitude blocking I'd assume?

Seems the Met Office have really been caught with their pants down regarding this event. According to radar snow is streaming into St Andrews/Dundee reigion right now and not one warning on their website.

A very decent covering for Glasgow. Still coming down.

Snow event in west central Scotland Glasgow/Ayrshire, must have came from that little documented low sliding down the west coast changing wind direction and producing a mini battleground event.

Encroaching inward toward Glasgow city/East Dunbartonshire

Let's remember, meteorological Winter hasn't yet begun! Am analogy I would use is to illustrate this is currently we are seeing an amazing support act and we will experience something of an interlude as we progress into the main event! Personally I think we'll see a week long cold spell, a little bit of a breakdown and then BAM entrenched cold as we head into Xmas/NY with repeated snow events for much of the UK in Jan-supported by the purported reversal in zonal winds and a potential SSW! I hope the main act are the Arctic Monkeys

Fujiphasing

Regardless, this is the most promising start to the winter thread I have seen for a good few years. I think if, in September we were offered this setup guaranteed for late Nov/Dec the vast majority would take it in a heartbeat. A lot of positive signals (for cold/blocking)

I don't want to tempt fate...not to go o.t but I read that Mid March '79 had severe blizzards and drifting, North East England drifts reached a staggering 15 feet! Completely unfathomable for me, having been born '89. Closest to for me was the winter of 2010.

I imagine the jet drawing in Arctic Air will help with lowering temps. This is it for the 22nd, and most days thereabouts.

Hi, @Scandinavian High. @Lukesluckybunch this will provide a good insight into what the above chart illustrates (the MJO). I hope you find it helpful. It can be a useful predictor of future conditions. You will come to understand that certain phases are more supportive of blocking/ cold weather in our part of the world than others What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation? WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK The Madden-Julian Oscillation is characterised by an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, mainly observed over the Indian and Pacific...

Perpetual zonality seems to be the takeaway. For the foreseeable future anyway.

Red Warning Updated Warning area extended southwestwards into western parts of Tayside. There is now high confidence in exceptional rainfall falling across southeast Grampian, particularly the uplands of Angus and south Aberdeenshire. 100-150 mm of rain is expected to fall widely within 24 hours with some locations likely to see 200-250 mm of rain which is expected to cause considerable impacts both where it falls and lower lying areas further east. Isn't that like a month to a month and a half's worth of rain in 24 hours

I'm surprised that there isn't a wind warning in place for Glasgow, as the current conditions seem windier than those experienced during Storm Agnes, for which we received a Yellow warning. During a recent walk to purchase a newspaper, I could distinctly hear the wind howling through gaps between houses, would estimate gusts were easily reaching 50mph. Of course, it is really disheartening to witness the devastating scenes of flooding in the northern regions.

I never said they didn't, but for it to occur in any given year is unlikely. That's why I said above that it would be highly unlikely.

510 dam lines over central/southern England isn't exactly a regular occurrence.

Wow, unfortunately I was only 1 going on 2 so no memory lol Although the coldest winter I do remember was in 2010, that was some seriously entrenched cold.

Winter is my favourite season and I only really participate on here Oct-Feb..to enjoy the relentless pursuit of cold ("get the cold locked in and the snow will follow") and interact on the model/regional discussions thread. Generally we all get excited about a potential for 516dam, -16 850 uppers from a t+120 chart, and then it all falls apart the day before. Rinse and repeat. But it sure is fun! And on rare occasions, the chart does verify and we are caked in the white stuff. A repeat of the chart below would be amazing, although highly unlikely!

Duchray Water@Renagour Bridge Just set its highest water level on record since being set up in 2015. It recorded 3.246m , previous record being 3.213 on 8th April 2020.

Thanks for the great explanation, really helped plug the gap in my knowledge. Cheers Jo