jmp223

Just a quick question to fill a gap in my knowledge--how are these conditions possible in a high pressure environment? UKMO latest readings give 1015hPa for Glasgow. I always associated that with calm, settled weather. I must have missed that meteorology lecture, lol.

Wow...don't think I've seen a mass of precipitation on the radar like that...ever. Hammering down in Glasgow, reckon the football will be called off today.

If you follow/followed the "Joint Cyclone Centre" on X, you might be forgiven for thinking a CAT 1-2 Hurricaine was on the way to the UK! (Which obviously, is impossible given our SSTs, amongst other factors ). I really do dislike their scaremongering for likes/follows model. In reality, this was just a bog standard Autumnal Low. A bit windy and a bit wet, but nothing worthy of causing serious disruption. I think in naming the storm at the time they did, ultimately the UKMO did the right thing as the intensity of explosive cyclogensis is notoriously difficult to model/forecast never mind the probability for stingjets to appear and amplify the severity of conditions, especially given this setup. Its not like we have the luxury the NHC do and are able on a whim to fly a research jet through the middle of the storm and fire dropsonde into the system to capture precise data. Their issuing of a yellow warning was the correct approach in my opinion . Hopefully it entails that when an Amber, heaven forbid, Red, storm warming is issued, the general public take a little bit more heed of it. I'm in Glasgow, and the bins haven't even blown over lol. Zero convective activity, although a lot of precipitation throughout the day. Ironically we had a spell of severe weather around one week ago (when the nationwide Sky Broadband outage occurred) which provided more severe impacts in terms of precipitation intensity than Agnes. According to UKMO our lowest recorded barometric pressure was 988Mb at 00:00 and wind gust 34mph at 02:00...

Dcape is downward available convective energy 3cape, is cape value below 3km I believe? Higher DCAPE values (>1000 j/kg) have been associated with increasing potential for strong downdrafts and damaging outflow winds.

Perpetually depressing

Push North! Seems streamers have set up from East lothian and pushing west

It's snowing in Glasgow(East) . I didn't think the LP system would get as far north and it certainly wasn't predicted to, but miracles do happen. 2-3cm and lying keep it coming

The main model thread has turned into "Snow chance South of Watford potential" so I have migrated here. I'd love that to verify! Glasgow is cold, minima of -6 last night for Bishopton but completely dry. So far it's looking like a repeat of the cold snap of December--zero precipitation. Hopefully change on the horizon next week And the scatter on the ens. is crazy for the latter half of the period, I wonder if this has anything to do with the 2nd SSW?

I'd love that to verify! Glasgow is cold, minima of -6 last night but completely dry. So far it's looking like a repeat of the cold snap of December--zero precipitation. And the scatter on the ens. is crazy for the latter half of the period, does this have anything to do with the 2nd SSW? Or have the models managed to integrate it into their computations now and is this simply attributable to other factors?

Cheers for explaining that Battleground

Sorry for a noobish question but could someone tell me the difference between the "control" and the "operational" runs in the GEFS? Thanks in advance.

This certainly seems to be evolving nicely

Seems almost all the ensemble trajectories are going for a blocking pattern in the longer term

I always remember this chart... Also, NE Ukraine getting heavy snow and cold. Dreamland (weather only obviously)

Am I right in saying that two out of every three SSWs bring cold weather/blocking to the UK?

512 dam for the UK, Damn that would be something!

Really good article on SSWs here, I found it to be a really informative read. A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming, collapsing the Polar Vortex and potentially impacting the weather in late-month and early Spring » Severe Weather Europe WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU A new and even stronger Stratospheric Warming is coming for the Polar Vortex, potentially impacting the weather in the United States, Canada and Europe

With 90% confidence I'd say Yes. Mediocre winter.

I think our only real hope for cold/snow rests on a SSW style event. Models scream prolonged zonality to me at the moment.

Bog standard mild winter, cold snap in second week of December and it came to nothing. Nothing on the horizon either if honest the amplified jet due to the activity over the US will just bring us wind and rain, rinse and repeat. Cant see the MJO even in phase 7 being able to topple the influence of la nina. very disappointing.

Some powerful Forth Clyde streamers setting up!

Low temperatures and dewpoint condusive with snowfall. Colder 850s will let the cold air sink further south too, I'd imagine. UKMO issued a new morning this morning, sorry mods if its already been posted Scattered wintry showers and and ice risk on Saturday morning,. Then an area of more prolonged wintry showers will move into Angus and Tayside later Saturday and spread southwest overnight to affect more Central areas.

It is now snowing lightly in Glasgow Our first dusting of the season. Heavier shower/band due to arrive around 3-5

England in the world cup Strong French uppers led by Mbappe and Grizeman are threatening to dislodge their shot blocking pattern...hehe, in all honesty good luck

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently negative and is predicted to remain negative to strongly negative the next two weeks as pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic are predicted to remain positive in the North Atlantic sector. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently negative and is predicted to remain negative the next two weeks as pressure/geopotential height anomalies are predicted to be positive to strongly positive across Greenland. (Verisk, 7th Dec)