jmp223

I flew up from Heathrow yesterday and the cloud ceiling extended up to around fl25 (25,000ft) across some parts of the Midlands. Was unusual to see so early in the year.

damianslaw I know! The misery continues...

Depending on the severity of rapid cyclogenesis and its ultimate track, this low for next week looks monstrous.

Given up the chase this winter. One notable week of cold at the start of December, but the lack of an amplified MJO when we needed it most really let us down, as well as the much predicted and hoped for (including by me), SSW around New Year. This winter has been an unmitigated disaster for coldies. Had great synoptics in play on a couple of occasions, but there was always one element that stalled or failed causing a domino effect which allowed for a mild incursion. I wish you all good health, and will hopefully be back here toward the end of Autumn, albeit with tempered expectations and much less Bullish when it comes to Cold.

Many thanks Fiona, that explanation makes a lot of sense to me and is something I can understand/visualise. Have a nice weekend Oh and yes, I'm not too far from you and for 30 minutes or so experienced some pretty intense precipitation and wind gusts. If I recall the wind was pretty strong-stronger than forecast--for much of the day.

I understand people are busy and stuff but anytime someone posted a question on the model thread that I knew the answer to or could help them with it I did. Seems my question about this Storm and it's formation was completely ignored. Obviously no one had an obligation to answer it and I am being a tad moody but I always found NW to be a great learning environment.. I can't quote my original question as Idk how to. But basically my question was why this Storm underwent it's rapid deepening over 10-15W whereas Isha and Jocelyn did so way out over the NW Atlantic. I read somewhere it had something to do with the Jetstream splitting off into two "arms". Not the right meteorological term but it was something like that.

Could someone more knowledgeable than I am explain why the recent storms we had, Isha and Jocelyn underwent their phase of deepening much further out over the Atlantic, whereas this Storm is doing so in our neck of the woods, so to speak. I think Isha was a fully formed system over the US/Newfoundland and brought snow, would this have something to do with it? I would think so, but as with Hurricanes they can develop into a Cat 4/5 be downgraded to a 1 or 2 and then strengthen again in a conducive environment over water. Obviously different dynamics at play as these systems are extra tropical cyclones, just a little bit confused. Thanks!

That picture Jo posted certainly exudes an unmistakable air of ominous foreboding for Norway. Surprised there was no rain warning issued, it's been battering it down here since 8am. Ghost of winters past Crikey, that certainly puts the explosive in explosive cyclogenesis!

It could be, while we share naming with Met Eireann whether the storm is upgraded or downgraded for the UK is entirely up to the UKMO. Personally I think we'll see an amber for central belt of Scotland down to Cumbria/ Lake district.

As so many pushed the narrative of "once in a decade synoptics", "entrenched cold from the 15th to the end of Jan" we ended up with two days of real cold, in the middle of Winter and the "Great Blizzard of 2024"

Come to think of it, I haven't seen one gritter when I've been out and about. Not one!

Wow, what a dumping...The great blizzard of 2024

Surely this can't be correct, data I obtained from the GFS through Ventusky shows Glasgow hitting a max of 12° on the 22nd at 3am...before a cold front re-establishes itself and the temp is down to 5°c in a matter of 3 hours! Also with wind gusts of 50mph across the central belt imd a Swly/Wly flow, clearly indicating a return to a ramped up Atlantic Interlude-wind gusts hitting 60mph in the following days. Plausible or the models not capturing some variables correctly? ECMWF goes for a much calmer resolution, while wind speeds, temp and direction do change with speed gradually increasing, nothing like indicated with the GFS which would suggest a named storm on the cards for late January. While I've been following the ensembles and charts for a couple of years and trying to enhance my understanding -much helped by the great posts of Cambrian, Catacol, Tamara and the brilliant blog posts by our brilliant Nick and Jo. amongst others, I can't seem to make sense of such high divergence/variance in the models. ICON follows a similar warming trend regarding temperatures. For future reference would you recommend I stay away from Ventu. and just focus on the runs/ MOGREBS posted here, as those charts have me pretty confused. I was expecting a mild interlude, but for the Atlantic to come roaring back with a potentially named storm, wasnt a setting I wasn't prepared for. Thank you for your patience with my posts, I'm just trying to understand the optimal method in regards what charts to primarily rely on.

No offence but that looks like a three year old just took a crayon to the map.

Folded like a cheap suit...Not heard that one before, love it

Bit of a concerted trend towards warmer 850s after the 15th. Control a bit of a stinker

I like

Damn, -12 850s for the 15th. I'll take that tyvm

ATMO 203 Tutorials - The 850 mb Forecasting Technique SITES.GOOGLE.COM During the day, convective mixing dominates. The ground heats the air from below; as the air warms, it bubbles upward and is replaced by cooler air from above. The cycle continues... This should help

510 dam for most of Scotland on the 16th. I have never, ever seen that before

Hi Mike, is that a vortex split event rather than a displacement? Just curious as to whether this has any bearing on our chance of cold. I know 2/3 SSWs lead to colder weather, however I wonder if it is type dependent? I would assume it is a good thing the warming is on our side-by that I mean to our NE, as opposed to occuring over the Canadian side. I assume by that the effects would be more pronounced for the UK. I'm only really starting to study SSWs and their "teleconnectors" seriously this winter. I found a great document that explains the role Rossby waves play in all of this, everyone can find it here. I recommend everyone who isn't already an "expert" give it a read Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) | SKYbrary Aviation Safety SKYBRARY.AERO Description First discovered in 1952, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) refers to a swift jump in temperatures in the stratosphere that is sometimes linked to the onset of cold weather in...

4.4; 88mm

This Storm for tomorrow is looking nasty...has the classic hook in which stingjets can occur, I think.

Very wet, strong winds but nothing that would bring down power lines or cause major damage, Glasgow.

Wow...(massive hp system). Although marked drop in temps showing with forecast for Xmas day, while I still consider that FI territory it will be interesting to see the evolution the models take to get there. Perhaps an amplified MJO and an acceleration as it goes through it's next phase? Just thinking out loud...